Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
NHESS
Articles | Volume 21, issue 7
Articles | Volume 21, issue 7
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2215-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2215-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 21, issue 7
Research article
 | 
23 Jul 2021
Research article |  | 23 Jul 2021

Leveraging multi-model season-ahead streamflow forecasts to trigger advanced flood preparedness in Peru

Colin Keating, Donghoon Lee, Juan Bazo, and Paul Block

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Latest update: 23 Oct 2025
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Short summary
Disaster planning has historically underallocated resources for flood preparedness, but evidence supports reduced vulnerability via early actions. We evaluate the ability of multiple season-ahead streamflow prediction models to appropriately trigger early actions for the flood-prone Marañón River and Piura River in Peru. Our findings suggest that locally tailored statistical models may offer improved performance compared to operational physically based global models in low-data environments.
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