Articles | Volume 20, issue 5
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1533-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1533-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
29 May 2020
Research article |
| 29 May 2020
| 29 May 2020
Contrasting seismic risk for Santiago, Chile, from near-field and distant earthquake sources
COMET, School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds, LS2 9JT, UK
British Geological Survey, Natural Environment Research Council, Environmental Science Centre, Keyworth, Nottingham, NG12 5GG, UK
John R. Elliott
COMET, School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds, LS2 9JT, UK
Vitor Silva
GEM Foundation, Via Ferrata 1, 27100 Pavia, Italy
Mabé Vilar-Vega
GEM Foundation, Via Ferrata 1, 27100 Pavia, Italy
Deborah Kane
Risk Management Solutions, Inc., Newark, CA, USA
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Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 2699–2716, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-2699-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-2699-2025, 2025
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We analysed debris flows in Sichuan, China, using satellite data and simulations to assess check dam efficacy. Our study found that while check dams can mitigate smaller flows, they may increase exposure to extreme events, with up to 40 % of structures in some areas affected. Urban development and reliance on check dams can create a false sense of security, increasing exposure during large debris flows and highlighting the need for risk management and infrastructure planning in hazard-prone areas.
Ekbal Hussain, Endra Gunawan, Nuraini Rahma Hanifa, and Qori'atu Zahro
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3185–3197, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3185-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3185-2023, 2023
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The earthquake potential of the Lembang Fault, located near the city of Bandung in West Java, Indonesia, is poorly understood. Bandung has a population of over 8 million people. We used satellite data to estimate the energy storage on the fault and calculate the likely size of potential future earthquakes. We use simulations to show that 1.9–2.7 million people would be exposed to high levels of ground shaking in the event of a major earthquake on the fault.
Isabelle Utley, Tristram Hales, Ekbal Hussain, and Xuanmei Fan
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We analysed debris flows in Sichuan, China, using satellite data and simulations to assess check dam efficacy. Our study found that while check dams can mitigate smaller flows, they may increase exposure to extreme events, with up to 40 % of structures in some areas affected. Urban development and reliance on check dams can create a false sense of security, increasing exposure during large debris flows and highlighting the need for risk management and infrastructure planning in hazard-prone areas.
Irina Dallo, Michèle Marti, Nadja Valenzuela, Helen Crowley, Jamal Dabbeek, Laurentiu Danciu, Simone Zaugg, Fabrice Cotton, Domenico Giardini, Rui Pinho, John F. Schneider, Céline Beauval, António A. Correia, Olga-Joan Ktenidou, Päivi Mäntyniemi, Marco Pagani, Vitor Silva, Graeme Weatherill, and Stefan Wiemer
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 291–307, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-291-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-291-2024, 2024
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For the release of cross-country harmonised hazard and risk models, a communication strategy co-defined by the model developers and communication experts is needed. The strategy should consist of a communication concept, user testing, expert feedback mechanisms, and the establishment of a network with outreach specialists. Here we present our approach for the release of the European Seismic Hazard Model and European Seismic Risk Model and provide practical recommendations for similar efforts.
Ekbal Hussain, Endra Gunawan, Nuraini Rahma Hanifa, and Qori'atu Zahro
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3185–3197, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3185-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3185-2023, 2023
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The earthquake potential of the Lembang Fault, located near the city of Bandung in West Java, Indonesia, is poorly understood. Bandung has a population of over 8 million people. We used satellite data to estimate the energy storage on the fault and calculate the likely size of potential future earthquakes. We use simulations to show that 1.9–2.7 million people would be exposed to high levels of ground shaking in the event of a major earthquake on the fault.
John Douglas, Helen Crowley, Vitor Silva, Warner Marzocchi, Laurentiu Danciu, and Rui Pinho
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-991, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-991, 2023
Preprint withdrawn
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Estimates of the earthquake ground motions expected during the lifetime of a building or the length of an insurance policy are frequently calculated for locations around the world. Estimates for the same location from different studies can show large differences. These differences affect engineering, financial and risk management decisions. We apply various approaches to understand when such differences have an impact on such decisions and when they are expected because data are limited.
C. Scott Watson, John R. Elliott, Susanna K. Ebmeier, Juliet Biggs, Fabien Albino, Sarah K. Brown, Helen Burns, Andrew Hooper, Milan Lazecky, Yasser Maghsoudi, Richard Rigby, and Tim J. Wright
Geosci. Commun., 6, 75–96, https://doi.org/10.5194/gc-6-75-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gc-6-75-2023, 2023
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We evaluate the communication and open data processing of satellite Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) data, which measures ground deformation. We discuss the unique interpretation challenges and the use of automatic data processing and web tools to broaden accessibility. We link these tools with an analysis of InSAR communication through Twitter in which applications to earthquakes and volcanoes prevailed. We discuss future integration with disaster risk-reduction strategies.
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Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 789–807, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-789-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-789-2023, 2023
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This article presents a framework for semi-automated building damage assessment due to earthquakes from remote-sensing data and other supplementary datasets including high-resolution building inventories, while also leveraging recent advances in machine-learning algorithms. For three out of the four recent earthquakes studied, the machine-learning framework is able to identify over 50 % or nearly half of the damaged buildings successfully.
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We assess how greenspaces could guide risk-informed planning and reduce disaster risk for the urbanising city of Quito, Ecuador, which experiences earthquake, volcano, landslide, and flood hazards. We use satellite data to evaluate the use of greenspaces as safe spaces following an earthquake. We find disparities regarding access to and availability of greenspaces. The availability of greenspaces that could contribute to community resilience is high; however, many require official designation.
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Modeling seismic hazard and landslide occurrence probabilities in northwestern Yunnan, China: exploring complex fault systems with multi-segment rupturing in a block rotational tectonic zone
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The northwestern Yunnan region (NWYR), with a complex network of active faults, presents significant seismic hazards such as multi-segment ruptures and landslides. This article introduces a new seismic hazard model which integrates fault slip parameters to assess the risks associated with multi-segment ruptures. The results reveal the intricate relationship between these ruptures and the regional small block rotation induced by regional low-crustal flow and gravitational collapse.
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Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 817–842, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-817-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-817-2025, 2025
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A regionally consistent probabilistic risk assessment for multiple hazards and assets was developed under the Strengthening Financial Resilience and Accelerating Risk Reduction in Central Asia (SFRARR) programme, supported by the European Union, the World Bank, and the Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery. This paper outlines the preparation of the source model and presents key results of the probabilistic earthquake hazard analysis for the Central Asian countries.
David Montiel-López, Sergio Molina, Juan José Galiana-Merino, Igor Gómez, Alireza Kharazian, Juan Luis Soler-Llorens, José Antonio Huesca-Tortosa, Arianna Guardiola-Villora, and Gonzalo Ortuño-Sáez
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 515–539, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-515-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-515-2025, 2025
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We presents a comparison between different methods of computing the seismic activity rate in the time-dependent annual probability of exceedance (TD-APE) for a given earthquake in two areas: Italy (high seismicity) and Spain (moderate seismicity). Important changes in the TD-APE are seen in Italy before the L'Aquila earthquake, which can be related to foreshocks. In the case of Spain subtle changes are seen before some earthquakes. This approach could enable operational earthquake forecasting.
Chenyang Li, Changfeng Qin, Jie Zhang, Yu Duan, and Chengquan Chi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 231–245, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-231-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-231-2025, 2025
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In this study, we advance the field of earthquake prediction by introducing a pre-seismic anomaly extraction method based on the structure of a graph WaveNet model, which reveals the temporal correlation and spatial correlation of the strain observation data from different boreholes prior to the occurrence of an earthquake event.
Elena F. Manea, Laurentiu Danciu, Carmen O. Cioflan, Dragos Toma-Danila, and Matthew C. Gerstenberger
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1–12, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1-2025, 2025
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We test and evaluate the results of the 2020 European Seismic Hazard Model (ESHM20) against observations spanning a few centuries at 12 cities in Romania. The full distributions of the hazard curves at the given locations were considered, and the testing was performed for two relevant peak ground acceleration (PGA) values. Our analysis suggests that the observed exceedance rates for the selected PGA levels are consistent with ESHM20 estimates.
Ann E. Morey, Mark D. Shapley, Daniel G. Gavin, Alan R. Nelson, and Chris Goldfinger
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4523–4561, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4523-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4523-2024, 2024
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Disturbance events from historical sediments from a small lake in Oregon were evaluated to determine if Cascadia megathrust earthquakes are uniquely identifiable. Geochemical provenance data identify two likely Cascadia earthquakes, one from 1700 CE and the other from 1873 CE. A crustal earthquake deposit and flood deposits were also uniquely identified, suggesting that small Cascadia lakes are good recorders of megathrust earthquakes and other disturbances.
Ann E. Morey and Chris Goldfinger
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4563–4584, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4563-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4563-2024, 2024
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This study uses the characteristics from a deposit attributed to the 1700 CE Cascadia earthquake to identify other subduction-earthquake deposits in sediments from two lakes located near the California–Oregon border. Seven deposits were identified in these records, and an age–depth model suggests that these correlate in time to the largest Cascadia earthquakes preserved in the offshore record, suggesting that inland lakes can be good recorders of Cascadia earthquakes.
Sarah El Kadri, Celine Beauval, Marlene Brax, and Yann Klinger
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-184, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-184, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
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Seismic hazard evaluation is required for establishing earthquake-resistant building codes. Our aim is to improve the quantification of seismic hazard in the Levant by including our knowledge on how faults may be interconnected. We build an earthquake forecast by redistributing the energy stored in the fault system over all possible earthquake ruptures. This interconnected fault model leads to seismic hazard maps where hazard is as high on secondary fault branches as on main branches.
Niranjan Joshi, Björn Lund, and Roland Roberts
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4199–4223, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4199-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4199-2024, 2024
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Few large earthquakes and low occurrence rates make seismic hazard assessment of Sweden a challenging task. Recent expansion of the seismic network has improved the quality and quantity of the data recorded. We use these new data to estimate the Swedish seismic hazard using probabilistic methods to find that hazard was previously underestimated in the north. The north has the highest hazard in Sweden, with estimated mean peak ground acceleration of up to 0.06 g for a 475-year return period.
Zhiwen Zhu, Zihan Jiang, Federico Accornero, and Alberto Carpinteri
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4133–4143, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4133-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4133-2024, 2024
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Since April 2023, an in situ experiment in a granite tunnel in Southeast China has been revealing strong correlations between acoustic emission signals and seismic activity. Acoustic emission bursts precede seismic events by approximately 17 h, with a notable decline in the b value and natural-time variance κ1. This research provides new evidence that acoustic emission can serve as an effective earthquake precursor.
Roberto Basili, Laurentiu Danciu, Céline Beauval, Karin Sesetyan, Susana Pires Vilanova, Shota Adamia, Pierre Arroucau, Jure Atanackov, Stéphane Baize, Carolina Canora, Riccardo Caputo, Michele Matteo Cosimo Carafa, Edward Marc Cushing, Susana Custódio, Mine Betul Demircioglu Tumsa, João C. Duarte, Athanassios Ganas, Julián García-Mayordomo, Laura Gómez de la Peña, Eulàlia Gràcia, Petra Jamšek Rupnik, Hervé Jomard, Vanja Kastelic, Francesco Emanuele Maesano, Raquel Martín-Banda, Sara Martínez-Loriente, Marta Neres, Hector Perea, Barbara Šket Motnikar, Mara Monica Tiberti, Nino Tsereteli, Varvara Tsironi, Roberto Vallone, Kris Vanneste, Polona Zupančič, and Domenico Giardini
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3945–3976, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3945-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3945-2024, 2024
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This study presents the European Fault-Source Model 2020 (EFSM20), a dataset of 1248 geologic crustal faults and four subduction systems, each having the necessary parameters to forecast long-term earthquake occurrences in the European continent. This dataset constituted one of the main inputs for the recently released European Seismic Hazard Model 2020, a key instrument to mitigate seismic risk in Europe. EFSM20 adopts recognized open-standard formats, and it is openly accessible and reusable.
Eugenio E. Vogel, Denisse Pastén, Gonzalo Saravia, Michel Aguilera, and Antonio Posadas
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3895–3906, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3895-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3895-2024, 2024
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For the first time, an entropy analysis has been performed in Alaska, a seismic-rich region located in a subduction zone that shows non-trivial behavior: the subduction arc changes seismic activity from the eastern zone to the western zone, showing a decrease in this activity along the subduction zone. This study shows how an entropy approach can help us understand seismicity in subduction zones.
Graeme Weatherill, Fabrice Cotton, Guillaume Daniel, Irmela Zentner, Pablo Iturrieta, and Christian Bosse
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3755–3787, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3755-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3755-2024, 2024
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New generations of seismic hazard models are developed with sophisticated approaches to quantify uncertainties in our knowledge of earthquake processes. To understand why and how recent state-of-the-art seismic hazard models for France, Germany, and Europe differ despite similar underlying assumptions, we present a systematic approach to investigate model-to-model differences and to quantify and visualise them while accounting for their respective uncertainties.
Sukh Sagar Shukla, Jaya Dhanya, Praveen Kumar, Priyanka, and Varun Dutt
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-129, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-129, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
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Earthquakes are among the most disastrous natural calamities due to the release of accumulated strain energy from continuous tectonic movements. It has potential of causing havoc both in terms of economic losses and loss of life. This paper presents a methodology to predict the earthquake in terms of seismic energy release for global region using ensembled machine learning technique and then same approach is tested for one of the most seismic active region of the world i.e., Western Himalayas.
Athanasios N. Papadopoulos, Philippe Roth, Laurentiu Danciu, Paolo Bergamo, Francesco Panzera, Donat Fäh, Carlo Cauzzi, Blaise Duvernay, Alireza Khodaverdian, Pierino Lestuzzi, Ömer Odabaşi, Ettore Fagà, Paolo Bazzurro, Michèle Marti, Nadja Valenzuela, Irina Dallo, Nicolas Schmid, Philip Kästli, Florian Haslinger, and Stefan Wiemer
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3561–3578, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3561-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3561-2024, 2024
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The Earthquake Risk Model of Switzerland (ERM-CH23), released in early 2023, is the culmination of a multidisciplinary effort aiming to achieve, for the first time, a comprehensive assessment of the potential consequences of earthquakes on the Swiss building stock and population. ERM-CH23 provides risk estimates for various impact metrics, ranging from economic loss as a result of damage to buildings and their contents to human losses, such as deaths, injuries, and displaced population.
Himanshu Agrawal and John McCloskey
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3519–3536, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3519-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3519-2024, 2024
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Rapidly expanding cities in earthquake-prone regions of the Global South often lack seismic event records, hindering accurate ground motion predictions for hazard assessment. Our study demonstrates that, despite these limitations, reliable predictions can be made using simulation-based methods for small (sub)urban units undergoing rapid development. High-resolution local geological data can reveal spatial variability in ground motions, aiding effective risk mitigation.
Morgan Vervoort, Katleen Wils, Kris Vanneste, Roberto Urrutia, Mario Pino, Catherine Kissel, Marc De Batist, and Maarten Van Daele
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3401–3421, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3401-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3401-2024, 2024
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This study identifies a prehistoric earthquake around 4400 years ago near the city of Coyhaique (Aysén Region, Chilean Patagonia) and illustrates the potential seismic hazard in the region. We found deposits in lakes and a fjord that can be related to subaquatic and onshore landslides, all with a similar age, indicating that they were most likely caused by an earthquake. Through modeling we found that this was an earthquake of magnitude 6.3 to 7.0 on a fault near the city of Coyhaique.
Melody Philippon, Jean Roger, Jean-Frédéric Lebrun, Isabelle Thinon, Océane Foix, Stéphane Mazzotti, Marc-André Gutscher, Leny Montheil, and Jean-Jacques Cornée
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3129–3154, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3129-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3129-2024, 2024
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Using novel geophysical datasets, we reassess the slip rate of the Morne Piton fault (Lesser Antilles) at 0.2 mm yr−1 by dividing by four previous estimations and thus increasing the earthquake time recurrence and lowering the associated hazard. We evaluate a plausible magnitude for a potential seismic event of Mw 6.5 ± 0.5. Our multi-segment tsunami model representative of the worst-case scenario gives an overview of tsunami generation if all the fault segments ruptured together.
Laurentiu Danciu, Domenico Giardini, Graeme Weatherill, Roberto Basili, Shyam Nandan, Andrea Rovida, Céline Beauval, Pierre-Yves Bard, Marco Pagani, Celso G. Reyes, Karin Sesetyan, Susana Vilanova, Fabrice Cotton, and Stefan Wiemer
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3049–3073, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3049-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3049-2024, 2024
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The 2020 European Seismic Hazard Model (ESHM20) is the latest seismic hazard assessment update for the Euro-Mediterranean region. This state-of-the-art model delivers a broad range of hazard results, including hazard curves, maps, and uniform hazard spectra. ESHM20 provides two hazard maps as informative references in the next update of the European Seismic Design Code (CEN EC8), and it also provides a key input to the first earthquake risk model for Europe.
Hugo Rosero-Velásquez, Mauricio Monsalve, Juan Camilo Gómez Zapata, Elisa Ferrario, Alan Poulos, Juan Carlos de la Llera, and Daniel Straub
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2667–2687, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2667-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2667-2024, 2024
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Seismic risk management uses reference earthquake scenarios, but the criteria for selecting them do not always consider consequences for exposed assets. Hence, we adopt a definition of representative scenarios associated with a return period and loss level to select such scenarios among a large set of possible earthquakes. We identify the scenarios for the residential-building stock and power supply in Valparaíso and Viña del Mar, Chile. The selected scenarios depend on the exposed assets.
Valerio Poggi, Stefano Parolai, Natalya Silacheva, Anatoly Ischuk, Kanatbek Abdrakhmatov, Zainalobudin Kobuliev, Vakhitkhan Ismailov, Roman Ibragimov, Japar Karaev, Paola Ceresa, and Paolo Bazzurro
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2597–2613, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2597-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2597-2024, 2024
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As part of the Strengthening Financial Resilience and Accelerating Risk Reduction in Central Asia (SFRARR) programme, funded by the European Union in collaboration with the World Bank and GFDRR, a regionally consistent probabilistic multi-hazard and multi-asset risk assessment has been developed. This paper describes the preparation of the input datasets (earthquake catalogue and active-fault database) required for the implementation of the probabilistic seismic hazard model.
Konstantinos Trevlopoulos, Pierre Gehl, Caterina Negulescu, Helen Crowley, and Laurentiu Danciu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2383–2401, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2383-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2383-2024, 2024
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The models used to estimate the probability of exceeding a level of earthquake damage are essential to the reduction of disasters. These models consist of components that may be tested individually; however testing these types of models as a whole is challenging. Here, we use observations of damage caused by the 2019 Le Teil earthquake and estimations from other models to test components of seismic risk models.
Quetzalcoatl Rodríguez-Pérez and F. Ramón Zúñiga
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-92, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-92, 2024
Preprint withdrawn
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Seismic intensity reflects earthquake damage, although this parameter is often subjective. On the other hand, peak acceleration values are a direct measure of earthquake effects. Seismic intensity was used to describe historical earthquakes, and its use is rare today. For this reason, it is important to have a relationship between these parameters of strong movements in order to predict the acceleration of historical earthquakes.
Graeme Weatherill, Sreeram Reddy Kotha, Laurentiu Danciu, Susana Vilanova, and Fabrice Cotton
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1795–1834, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1795-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1795-2024, 2024
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The ground motion models (GMMs) selected for the 2020 European Seismic Hazard Model (ESHM20) and their uncertainties require adaptation to different tectonic environments. Using insights from new data, local experts and developments in the scientific literature, we further calibrate the ESHM20 GMM logic tree to capture previously unmodelled regional variation. We also propose a new scaled-backbone logic tree for application to Europe's subduction zones and the Vrancea deep seismic source.
Vera D'Amico, Francesco Visini, Andrea Rovida, Warner Marzocchi, and Carlo Meletti
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1401–1413, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1401-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1401-2024, 2024
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We propose a scoring strategy to rank multiple models/branches of a probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) model that could be useful to consider specific requests from stakeholders responsible for seismic risk reduction actions. In fact, applications of PSHA often require sampling a few hazard curves from the model. The procedure is introduced through an application aimed to score and rank the branches of a recent Italian PSHA model according to their fit with macroseismic intensity data.
Davide Scafidi, Alfio Viganò, Jacopo Boaga, Valeria Cascone, Simone Barani, Daniele Spallarossa, Gabriele Ferretti, Mauro Carli, and Giancarlo De Marchi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1249–1260, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1249-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1249-2024, 2024
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Our paper concerns the use of a dense network of low-cost seismic accelerometers in populated areas to achieve rapid and reliable estimation of exposure maps in Trentino (northeast Italy). These additional data, in conjunction with the automatic monitoring procedure, allow us to obtain dense measurements which only rely on actual recorded data, avoiding the use of ground motion prediction equations. This leads to a more reliable picture of the actual ground shaking.
Karina Loviknes, Fabrice Cotton, and Graeme Weatherill
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1223–1247, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1223-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1223-2024, 2024
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Earthquake ground shaking can be strongly affected by local geology and is often amplified by soft sediments. In this study, we introduce a global geomorphological model for sediment thickness as a protentional parameter for predicting this site amplification. The results show that including geology and geomorphology in site-amplification predictions adds important value and that global or regional models for sediment thickness from fields beyond engineering seismology are worth considering.
Khelly Shan Sta. Rita, Sotiris Valkaniotis, and Alfredo Mahar Francisco Lagmay
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1135–1161, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1135-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1135-2024, 2024
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The ground movement and rupture produced by the 2020 Masbate earthquake in the Philippines were studied using satellite data. We highlight the importance of the complementary use of optical and radar datasets. The slip measurements and field observations helped improve our understanding of the seismotectonics of the region, which is critical for seismic hazard studies.
Qing Wu, Guijuan Lai, Jian Wu, and Jinmeng Bi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1017–1033, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1017-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1017-2024, 2024
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Aftershocks are typically ignored for traditional probabilistic seismic hazard analyses, which underestimate the seismic hazard to some extent and may cause potential risks. A probabilistic seismic hazard analysis based on the Monte Carlo method was combined with the Omi–Reasenberg–Jones model to systematically study how aftershocks impact seismic hazard analyses. The influence of aftershocks on probabilistic seismic hazard analysis can exceed 50 %.
Lixin Wu, Xiao Wang, Yuan Qi, Jingchen Lu, and Wenfei Mao
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 773–789, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-773-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-773-2024, 2024
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The atmospheric electric field (AEF) is the bridge connecting the surface charges and atmospheric particle changes before an earthquake, which is essential for the study of the coupling process between the coversphere and atmosphere caused by earthquakes. This study discovers AEF anomalies before the Luding earthquake in 2022 and clarifies the relationship between the surface changes and atmosphere changes possibly caused by the earthquake.
Polona Zupančič, Barbara Šket Motnikar, Michele M. C. Carafa, Petra Jamšek Rupnik, Mladen Živčić, Vanja Kastelic, Gregor Rajh, Martina Čarman, Jure Atanackov, and Andrej Gosar
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 651–672, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-651-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-651-2024, 2024
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We considered two parameters that affect seismic hazard assessment in Slovenia. The first parameter we determined is the thickness of the lithosphere's section where earthquakes are generated. The second parameter is the activity of each fault, which is expressed by its average displacement per year (slip rate). Since the slip rate can be either seismic or aseismic, we estimated both components. This analysis was based on geological and seismological data and was validated through comparisons.
Maren Böse, Laurentiu Danciu, Athanasios Papadopoulos, John Clinton, Carlo Cauzzi, Irina Dallo, Leila Mizrahi, Tobias Diehl, Paolo Bergamo, Yves Reuland, Andreas Fichtner, Philippe Roth, Florian Haslinger, Frédérick Massin, Nadja Valenzuela, Nikola Blagojević, Lukas Bodenmann, Eleni Chatzi, Donat Fäh, Franziska Glueer, Marta Han, Lukas Heiniger, Paulina Janusz, Dario Jozinović, Philipp Kästli, Federica Lanza, Timothy Lee, Panagiotis Martakis, Michèle Marti, Men-Andrin Meier, Banu Mena Cabrera, Maria Mesimeri, Anne Obermann, Pilar Sanchez-Pastor, Luca Scarabello, Nicolas Schmid, Anastasiia Shynkarenko, Bozidar Stojadinović, Domenico Giardini, and Stefan Wiemer
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 583–607, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-583-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-583-2024, 2024
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Seismic hazard and risk are time dependent as seismicity is clustered and exposure can change rapidly. We are developing an interdisciplinary dynamic earthquake risk framework for advancing earthquake risk mitigation in Switzerland. This includes various earthquake risk products and services, such as operational earthquake forecasting and early warning. Standardisation and harmonisation into seamless solutions that access the same databases, workflows, and software are a crucial component.
Rimali Mitra, Hajime Naruse, and Tomoya Abe
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 429–444, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-429-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-429-2024, 2024
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This study estimates the behavior of the 2011 Tohoku-oki tsunami from its deposit distributed in the Joban coastal area. In this study, the flow characteristics of the tsunami were reconstructed using the DNN (deep neural network) inverse model, suggesting that the tsunami inundation occurred in the very high-velocity condition.
Sedat İnan, Hasan Çetin, and Nurettin Yakupoğlu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 397–409, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-397-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-397-2024, 2024
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Two devastating earthquakes, Mw 7.7 and Mw 7.6, occurred in Türkiye on 6 February 2023. We obtained commercially bottled waters from two springs, 100 km from the epicenter of Mw 7.7. Samples of the first spring emanating from fault zone in hard rocks showed positive anomalies in major ions lasting for 6 months before the earthquake. Samples from the second spring accumulated in an alluvium deposit showed no anomalies. We show that pre-earthquake anomalies are geologically site-dependent.
Olga-Joan Ktenidou, Antonia Papageorgiou, Erion-Vasilis Pikoulis, Spyros Liakopoulos, Fevronia Gkika, Ziya Cekinmez, Panagiotis Savvaidis, Kalliopi Fragouli, and Christos P. Evangelidis
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-233, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-233, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
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Greek seismic data are valuable in European and even global databases, due to its high seismicity and numerous seismic stations. Seismic data coming from stations that lie on rock (i.e., not soil) sits are particularly valuable in seismology to define reference ground conditions and ground motions. However, little knowledge exists yet on how rock stations in Greece behave. This is the first time the network of the National Observatory is studied systematically to reveal reference stations.
Sylvain Michel, Clara Duverger, Laurent Bollinger, Jorge Jara, and Romain Jolivet
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 163–177, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-163-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-163-2024, 2024
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The Upper Rhine Graben, located in France and Germany, is bordered by north–south-trending faults, posing a potential threat to dense population and infrastructures on the Alsace plain. We build upon previous seismic hazard studies of the graben by exploring uncertainties in greater detail, revisiting a number of assumptions. There is a 99 % probability that a maximum-magnitude earthquake would be below 7.3 if assuming a purely dip-slip mechanism or below 7.6 if assuming a strike-slip one.
Edlira Xhafaj, Chung-Han Chan, and Kuo-Fong Ma
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 109–119, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-109-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-109-2024, 2024
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Our study introduces new earthquake forecasting models for Albania, aiming to map out future seismic hazards. By analysing earthquakes from 1960 to 2006, we have developed models that predict where activity is most likely to occur, highlighting the western coast and southern regions as high-hazard zones. Our validation process confirms these models are effective tools for anticipating seismic events, offering valuable insights for earthquake preparedness and hazard assessment efforts.
Franz Livio, Maria Francesca Ferrario, Elisa Martinelli, Sahra Talamo, Silvia Cercatillo, and Alessandro Maria Michetti
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3407–3424, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3407-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3407-2023, 2023
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Here we document the occurrence of an historical earthquake that occurred in the European western Southern Alps in the sixth century CE. Analysis of the effects due to earthquake shaking in the city of Como (N Italy) and a comparison with dated offshore landslides in the Alpine lakes allowed us to make an inference about the possible magnitude and the location of the seismic source for this event.
Simone Francesco Fornasari, Deniz Ertuncay, and Giovanni Costa
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3219–3234, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3219-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3219-2023, 2023
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We analysed the background seismic noise for the Italian strong motion network by developing the Italian accelerometric low- and high-noise models. Spatial and temporal variations of the noise levels have been analysed. Several stations located near urban areas are affected by human activities, with high noise levels in the low periods. Our results provide an overview of the background noise of the strong motion network and can be used as a station selection criterion for future research.
Subash Ghimire, Philippe Guéguen, Adrien Pothon, and Danijel Schorlemmer
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3199–3218, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3199-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3199-2023, 2023
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This study explores the efficacy of several machine learning models for damage characterization, trained and tested on the Database of Observed Damage (DaDO) for Italian earthquakes. Reasonable damage prediction effectiveness (68 % accuracy) is observed, particularly when considering basic structural features and grouping the damage according to the traffic-light-based system used during the post-disaster period (green, yellow, and red), showing higher relevancy for rapid damage prediction.
Ekbal Hussain, Endra Gunawan, Nuraini Rahma Hanifa, and Qori'atu Zahro
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3185–3197, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3185-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3185-2023, 2023
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The earthquake potential of the Lembang Fault, located near the city of Bandung in West Java, Indonesia, is poorly understood. Bandung has a population of over 8 million people. We used satellite data to estimate the energy storage on the fault and calculate the likely size of potential future earthquakes. We use simulations to show that 1.9–2.7 million people would be exposed to high levels of ground shaking in the event of a major earthquake on the fault.
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Short summary
Many of the rapidly expanding cities around the world are located near active tectonic faults that have not produced an earthquake in recent memory. But these faults are generally small, and so most previous seismic-hazard analysis has focussed on large, more distant faults. In this paper we show that a moderate-size earthquake on a fault close to the city of Santiago in Chile has a greater impact on the city than a great earthquake on the tectonic boundary in the ocean, about a 100 km away.
Many of the rapidly expanding cities around the world are located near active tectonic faults...
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