Articles | Volume 19, issue 10
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 2157–2167, 2019
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-2157-2019
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 2157–2167, 2019
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-2157-2019
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
08 Oct 2019
Research article
| 08 Oct 2019
Have trends changed over time? A study of UK peak flow data and sensitivity to observation period
Adam Griffin et al.
Related authors
Adam Griffin, Alison Kay, Paul Sayers, Victoria Bell, Elizabeth Stewart, and Sam Carr
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2022-243, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2022-243, 2022
Preprint under review for HESS
Short summary
Short summary
Widespread flooding is a major problem in the UK, and is greatly affected by climate change and land-use change. To look at how widespread flooding changes in the future, climate model data (UKCP18) was used with a hydrological model (Grid-to-Grid) across the UK, and 14400 events were identified between two timeslices: 1980–2010 and 2050–2080. There was a strong increase in the number of winter events in the future timeslice, and in the peak return periods.
Adam Griffin, Luke Shaw, and Elizabeth Stewart
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2018-325, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2018-325, 2018
Revised manuscript not accepted
Short summary
Short summary
To better estimate how big the
1-in-100-yearflood is, historical data such as newspaper archives and bridge markings are used to estimate floods before systematic records began. To incorporate this data, a method involving the use of simulated histories is applied to better estimate relevant statistics in a reliable and dependable way. In this paper, the authors focus on the case study of the Welsh Bridge in Shrewsbury on the Severn in the United Kingdom.
Adam Griffin, Alison Kay, Paul Sayers, Victoria Bell, Elizabeth Stewart, and Sam Carr
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2022-243, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2022-243, 2022
Preprint under review for HESS
Short summary
Short summary
Widespread flooding is a major problem in the UK, and is greatly affected by climate change and land-use change. To look at how widespread flooding changes in the future, climate model data (UKCP18) was used with a hydrological model (Grid-to-Grid) across the UK, and 14400 events were identified between two timeslices: 1980–2010 and 2050–2080. There was a strong increase in the number of winter events in the future timeslice, and in the peak return periods.
Adam Griffin, Luke Shaw, and Elizabeth Stewart
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2018-325, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2018-325, 2018
Revised manuscript not accepted
Short summary
Short summary
To better estimate how big the
1-in-100-yearflood is, historical data such as newspaper archives and bridge markings are used to estimate floods before systematic records began. To incorporate this data, a method involving the use of simulated histories is applied to better estimate relevant statistics in a reliable and dependable way. In this paper, the authors focus on the case study of the Welsh Bridge in Shrewsbury on the Severn in the United Kingdom.
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Erik Tijdeman, Veit Blauhut, Michael Stoelzle, Lucas Menzel, and Kerstin Stahl
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2099–2116, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2099-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2099-2022, 2022
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We identified different drought types with typical hazard and impact characteristics. The summer drought type with compounding heat was most impactful. Regional drought propagation of this drought type exhibited typical characteristics that can guide drought management. However, we also found a large spatial variability that caused distinct differences among propagating drought signals. Accordingly, local multivariate drought information was needed to explain the full range of drought impacts.
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Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1845–1856, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1845-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1845-2022, 2022
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The flood that hit Europe in July 2021, specifically the Eifel, Germany, was more than a lot of fast-flowing water. The heavy rain that fell during the 3 d before also caused the slope to fail, recruited tree trunks that clogged bridges, and routed debris across the landscape. Especially in the upper parts of the catchments the flood was able to gain momentum. Here, we discuss how different landscape elements interacted and highlight the challenges of holistic future flood anticipation.
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Andrea Magnini, Michele Lombardi, Simone Persiano, Antonio Tirri, Francesco Lo Conti, and Attilio Castellarin
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Corinne Bowers, Katherine A. Serafin, and Jack Baker
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1371–1393, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1371-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1371-2022, 2022
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Yves Tramblay and Pere Quintana Seguí
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1325–1334, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1325-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1325-2022, 2022
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Monitoring soil moisture is important during droughts, but very few measurements are available. Consequently, land-surface models are essential tools for reproducing soil moisture dynamics. In this study, a hybrid approach allowed for regionalizing soil water content using a machine learning method. This approach proved to be efficient, compared to the use of soil property maps, to run a simple soil moisture accounting model, and therefore it can be applied in various regions.
David Patrick Callaghan and Michael G. Hughes
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2022-84, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2022-84, 2022
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
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A new method was developed to estimate changes of flood hazard under climate change. We use climate projections covering New South Wales, Australia, with two emission paths of business as usual and one with reduced emissions. We apply our method on the lower floodplain of the Gwydir Valley with changes of flood hazard provided over the next 90 years compared to the previous 50 years. We find that changes in flood hazard reduces over time within the Gwydir Valley floodplain.
Maria Francesca Caruso and Marco Marani
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We comparatively evaluate the predictive performance of traditional and new approaches to estimate the probability distributions of extreme coastal water levels. The metastatistical approach maximizes the use of observational information and provides reliable estimates of high quantiles with respect to traditional methods. Leveraging the increased estimation accuracy afforded by this approach, we investigate future changes in the frequency of extreme total water levels.
Shupeng Yue, Xiaodan Sheng, and Fengtian Yang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 995–1014, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-995-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-995-2022, 2022
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To develop drought assessment and early warning systems, it is necessary to explore the characteristics of drought and its propagation process. In this article, a generalized and efficient drought research framework is studied and verified. It includes the evaluation of the spatiotemporal evolution, the construction of the return period calculation model, and the quantitative analysis of the meteorological trigger conditions of drought based on an improved Bayesian network model.
Alexander J. Horton, Nguyen V. K. Triet, Long P. Hoang, Sokchhay Heng, Panha Hok, Sarit Chung, Jorma Koponen, and Matti Kummu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 967–983, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-967-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-967-2022, 2022
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We studied the cumulative impact of future development and climate change scenarios on discharge and floods in the Cambodian Mekong floodplain. We found that hydropower impacts dominate, acting in opposition to climate change impacts to drastically increase dry season flows and reduce wet season flows even when considering the higher RCP8.5 level. The consequent reduction in flood extent and duration may reduce regional flood risk but may also have negative impacts on floodplain productivity.
Daniel Viviroli, Anna E. Sikorska-Senoner, Guillaume Evin, Maria Staudinger, Martina Kauzlaric, Jérémy Chardon, Anne-Catherine Favre, Benoit Hingray, Gilles Nicolet, Damien Raynaud, Jan Seibert, Rolf Weingartner, and Calvin Whealton
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2022-99, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2022-99, 2022
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
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It is difficult to estimate the magnitude of rare to very rare floods due to a lack of sufficiently long observations. The challenge is even greater in large river basins, where precipitation patterns and precipitation amounts vary considerably over the course of an event, and floods from different parts of the basin coincide. We show that computer models can provide plausible results in this setting, and can thus inform flood risk and safety assessments for critical infrastructure.
Eva Boisson, Bruno Wilhelm, Emmanuel Garnier, Alain Mélo, Sandrine Anquetin, and Isabelle Ruin
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 831–847, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-831-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-831-2022, 2022
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We present the database of Historical Impacts of Floods in the Arve Valley (HIFAVa). It reports flood occurrences and impacts (1850–2015) in a French Alpine catchment. Our results show an increasing occurrence of impacts from 1920 onwards, which is more likely related to indirect source effects and/or increasing exposure rather than hydrological changes. The analysis reveals that small mountain streams caused more impacts (67 %) than the main river.
Francisco Peña, Fernando Nardi, Assefa Melesse, Jayantha Obeysekera, Fabio Castelli, René M. Price, Todd Crowl, and Noemi Gonzalez-Ramirez
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 775–793, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-775-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-775-2022, 2022
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Groundwater-induced flooding, a rare phenomenon that is increasing in low-elevation coastal cities due to higher water tables, is often neglected in flood risk mapping due to its sporadic frequency and considerably lower severity with respect to other flood hazards. A loosely coupled flood model is used to simulate the interplay between surface and subsurface flooding mechanisms simultaneously. This work opens new horizons on the development of compound flood models from a holistic perspective.
Angelica Tarpanelli, Alessandro Cesare Mondini, and Stefania Camici
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2022-63, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2022-63, 2022
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
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We analysed ten years of river discharge data over almost 2000 sites in Europe and we extracted flood events, as proxies of flood inundations, based on the overpasses of Sentinel-1 and Sentinel-2 satellites to derive the percentage of potential inundation events that they could be able to observe. Results show that on average the 58 % of flood events are potentially observable by Sentinel-1 and only the 28 % by Sentinel-2 due to the obstacle of cloud coverage.
Qing Liu, Hanqing Xu, and Jun Wang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 665–675, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-665-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-665-2022, 2022
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The coastal area is a major floodplain in compound flood events in coastal cities, primarily due to storm tide, with the inundation severity positively correlated with the height of the storm tide. Simply accumulating every single-driven flood hazard (rainstorm inundation and storm tide flooding) to define the compound flood hazard may cause underestimation. The assessment of tropical cyclone compound flood risk can provide vital insight for research on coastal flooding prevention.
Antonio-Juan Collados-Lara, Juan-de-Dios Gómez-Gómez, David Pulido-Velazquez, and Eulogio Pardo-Igúzquiza
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 599–616, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-599-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-599-2022, 2022
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This work studies the benefit of using more reliable local climate scenarios to analyse hydrological impacts. It has been applied in the Cenajo basin (south-eastern Spain), where we showed that the best approximations of the historical meteorology also provide the best approximations of the hydrology. The two selected climate models predict worrying changes in precipitation, temperature, streamflows and meteorological and hydrological droughts for the period 2071–2100 under the RCP8.5.
Agathe Bucherie, Micha Werner, Marc van den Homberg, and Simon Tembo
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 461–480, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-461-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-461-2022, 2022
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Local communities in northern Malawi have well-developed knowledge of the conditions leading to flash floods, spatially and temporally. Scientific analysis of catchment geomorphology and global reanalysis datasets corroborates this local knowledge, underlining the potential of these large-scale scientific datasets. Combining local knowledge with contemporary scientific datasets provides a common understanding of flash flood events, contributing to a more people-centred warning to flash floods.
Karen Gabriels, Patrick Willems, and Jos Van Orshoven
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 395–410, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-395-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-395-2022, 2022
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As land use influences hydrological processes (e.g., forests have a high water retention and infiltration capacity), it also impacts floods downstream in the river system. This paper demonstrates an approach quantifying the impact of land use changes on economic flood damages: damages in an initial situation are quantified and compared to damages of simulated floods associated with a land use change scenario. This approach can be used as an explorative tool in sustainable flood risk management.
Tao Liu, Luke A. McGuire, Nina Oakley, and Forest Cannon
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 361–376, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-361-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-361-2022, 2022
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A well-constrained rainfall-runoff model forced by radar-derived precipitation is used to define rainfall intensity-duration (ID) thresholds for flash floods. The rainfall ID doubles in 5 years after a severe wildfire in a watershed in southern California, USA. Rainfall ID performs stably well for intense pulses of rainfall over durations of 30-60 minutes that cover at least 15%-25% of the watershed. This finding could help issuing flash flood warnings based on radar-derived precipitation.
Heiko Apel, Sergiy Vorogushyn, and Bruno Merz
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2022-33, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2022-33, 2022
Revised manuscript under review for NHESS
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The manuscript presents a fast simulation model for flood propagation, that enables operational forecasts of spatially distributed inundation depths, flood extent and flow velocities and other flood impacts. The detailed spatial forecast of floods and flood impacts is a large step foreward from the currently operational forecasts of discharges at selected gauges, thus enabling a more targeted flood management and earliy warning.
Annegret H. Thieken, Guilherme Samprogna Mohor, Heidi Kreibich, and Meike Müller
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 165–185, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-165-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-165-2022, 2022
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Various floods hit Germany recently. While there was a river flood with some dike breaches in 2013, flooding in 2016 resulted directly from heavy rainfall, causing overflowing drainage systems in urban areas and destructive flash floods in steep catchments. Based on survey data, we analysed how residents coped with these different floods. We observed significantly different flood impacts, warnings, behaviour and recovery, offering entry points for tailored risk communication and support.
Olga Petrucci
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 71–83, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-71-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-71-2022, 2022
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This systematic review highlights flood mortality factors and the strategies to mitigate them, as obtained from 44 scientific articles published between 2010 and 2020. The findings are the classification of flood mortality drivers in two groups and the identification of strategies to cope with them. Future studies should fill the data gaps regarding flood fatalities in developing countries and information on people who have survived floods, which can be useful in educational campaigns.
Yuhan Yang, Jie Yin, Weiguo Zhang, Yan Zhang, Yi Lu, Yufan Liu, Aoyue Xiao, Yunxiao Wang, and Wenming Song
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3563–3572, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3563-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3563-2021, 2021
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This is the first time the compound flooding process of heavy rain and levee-breach-induced flooding has been modeled. Real-life cases of historical flooding events have been adequately investigated. Our results provide a comprehensive view of the spatial patterns of the flood evolution, the dynamic process, and mechanism of these cases, which can help decision makers to develop effective emergency response plans and flood adaptation strategies.
Kang He, Qing Yang, Xinyi Shen, and Emmanouil N. Anagnostou
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2021-307, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2021-307, 2021
Preprint under review for NHESS
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This study depicts the flood-affected areas in western Europe in July 2021, and particularly the agriculture land that was under flood inundation. The results indicate that the total inundated area over western Europe is about 2470 km2, of which 1680 km2 is in France. Around 57 % of the inundated area is agricultural land.we expect that the agricultural productivity in western Europe will be severely impacted.
Lucas Wouters, Anaïs Couasnon, Marleen C. de Ruiter, Marc J. C. van den Homberg, Aklilu Teklesadik, and Hans de Moel
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3199–3218, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3199-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3199-2021, 2021
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This research introduces a novel approach to estimate flood damage in Malawi by applying a machine learning model to UAV imagery. We think that the development of such a model is an essential step to enable the swift allocation of resources for recovery by humanitarian decision-makers. By comparing this method (EUR 10 140) to a conventional land-use-based approach (EUR 15 782) for a specific flood event, recommendations are made for future assessments.
Haixia Zhang, Weihua Fang, Hua Zhang, and Lu Yu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3161–3174, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3161-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3161-2021, 2021
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Taking a single flood disaster in Lishui city as an example, a rapid and refined assessment of economic loss is studied and verified, which can effectively simulate the distribution of loss ratio and loss value. It includes the construction of land use type and value based on data fusion and an expert questionnaire survey, the fitting and calibration of vulnerability curves based on an existing database and disaster loss reporting, and estimation of loss ratio and loss value by spatial analysis.
Doris E. Wendt, John P. Bloomfield, Anne F. Van Loon, Margaret Garcia, Benedikt Heudorfer, Joshua Larsen, and David M. Hannah
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3113–3139, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3113-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3113-2021, 2021
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Managing water demand and supply during droughts is complex, as highly pressured human–water systems can overuse water sources to maintain water supply. We evaluated the impact of drought policies on water resources using a socio-hydrological model. For a range of hydrogeological conditions, we found that integrated drought policies reduce baseflow and groundwater droughts most if extra surface water is imported, reducing the pressure on water resources during droughts.
Sara Lindersson, Luigia Brandimarte, Johanna Mård, and Giuliano Di Baldassarre
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2921–2948, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2921-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2921-2021, 2021
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Riverine flood risk assessments require the identification of areas prone to potential flooding. We find that (topography-based) hydrogeomorphic floodplain maps can in many cases be useful for riverine flood risk assessments, particularly where hydrologic data are scarce. For 26 countries across the global south, we also demonstrate how dataset choice influences the estimated number of people living within flood-prone zones.
Mark V. Bernhofen, Mark A. Trigg, P. Andrew Sleigh, Christopher C. Sampson, and Andrew M. Smith
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2829–2847, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2829-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2829-2021, 2021
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The use of different global datasets to calculate flood exposure can lead to differences in global flood exposure estimates. In this study, we use three global population datasets and a simple measure of a river’s flood susceptibility (based on the terrain alone) to explore how the choice of population data and the size of river represented in global flood models affect global and national flood exposure estimates.
Antonio Francipane, Dario Pumo, Marco Sinagra, Goffredo La Loggia, and Leonardo Valerio Noto
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2563–2580, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2563-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2563-2021, 2021
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In the last few years, some cities in the Mediterranean area have witnessed an increase in extreme rainfall events such as urban floods. The study focuses on a particularly intense urban flood that occurred in Palermo on 15 July 2020, which highlighted the need for a shift in the way stormwater in urban settlements is managed. We think that the framework used to study the impacts of the event and some conclusive remarks could be easily transferred to other urban contexts.
Luc Bonnafous and Upmanu Lall
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2277–2284, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2277-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2277-2021, 2021
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Extreme climate events can cause human and economic catastrophe at the global scale. For specific sectors, such as humanitarian aid or insurance, being able to understand how (i.e., with which frequency and intensity) these events can occur simultaneously at different locations or several times in a given amount of time and hit critical assets is all-important to design contingency plans. Here we develop an indicator to study co-occurence in space and time of wet and dry extremes.
Colin Keating, Donghoon Lee, Juan Bazo, and Paul Block
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2215–2231, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2215-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2215-2021, 2021
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Disaster planning has historically underallocated resources for flood preparedness, but evidence supports reduced vulnerability via early actions. We evaluate the ability of multiple season-ahead streamflow prediction models to appropriately trigger early actions for the flood-prone Marañón River and Piura River in Peru. Our findings suggest that locally tailored statistical models may offer improved performance compared to operational physically based global models in low-data environments.
Antonia Longobardi, Ouafik Boulariah, and Paolo Villani
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2181–2196, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2181-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2181-2021, 2021
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The current research was aimed at the description of historical drought periods that have characterized a broad area of the Mediterranean Basin and the Campania region, located in southern Italy. Knowledge of the past conditions would increase the awareness of the communities with respect to the frequency and severity of critical conditions which have affected and might further affect the environment in which they live.
Henk-Jan van Alphen, Clemens Strehl, Fabian Vollmer, Eduard Interwies, Anasha Petersen, Stefan Görlitz, Luca Locatelli, Montse Martinez Puentes, Maria Guerrero Hidalga, Elias Giannakis, Teun Spek, Marc Scheibel, Erle Kristvik, Fernanda Rocha, and Emmy Bergsma
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2145–2161, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2145-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2145-2021, 2021
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This paper presents an approach to selecting and analysing climate change adaptation measures, using a combination of scientific analysis and stakeholder interaction. This approach was applied in six cases across Europe, concerning drought and extreme precipitation. Although the cases vary widely, the approach yielded decision-relevant outcomes for the development of adaptation strategies, regarding socio-economic impacts of measures and potential barriers to implementation.
Robert P. Dziak, Bryan A. Black, Yong Wei, and Susan G. Merle
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1971–1982, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1971-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1971-2021, 2021
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On 26 January 1700 CE, a massive earthquake and tsunami struck the US Pacific Northwest west coast. The tsunami caused severe damage to coastal forests in Washington State. However, evidence of the impact on coastal Oregon trees has been difficult to find. We present some of the first evidence of tree-ring growth changes caused by the 1700 tsunami from an old-growth Douglas-fir stand located in South Beach, Oregon. We also present a tsunami inundation model of the 1700 earthquake.
Tigstu T. Dullo, George K. Darkwah, Sudershan Gangrade, Mario Morales-Hernández, M. Bulbul Sharif, Alfred J. Kalyanapu, Shih-Chieh Kao, Sheikh Ghafoor, and Moetasim Ashfaq
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1739–1757, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1739-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1739-2021, 2021
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We studied the effect of potential future climate change on floods, flood protection, and electricity infrastructure in the Conasauga River watershed in the US using ensemble hydrodynamic modeling. We used a GPU-accelerated Two-dimensional Runoff Inundation Toolkit for Operational Needs (TRITON) hydrodynamic model to simulate floods. Overall, this study demonstrates how a fast hydrodynamic model can enhance flood frequency maps and vulnerability assessment under changing climatic conditions.
Sengphrachanh Phakonkham, So Kazama, and Daisuke Komori
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1551–1567, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1551-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1551-2021, 2021
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The main objective of this study was to propose a new approach to integrating hazard maps to detect hazardous areas on a national scale, for which area-limited data are available. The analytical hierarchy process (AHP) was used as a tool to combine the different hazard maps into an integrated hazard map. The results from integrated hazard maps can identify dangerous areas from both individual and integrated hazards.
Eklavyya Popat and Petra Döll
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1337–1354, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1337-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1337-2021, 2021
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Two drought hazard indices are presented that combine drought deficit and anomaly aspects: one for soil moisture drought (SMDAI) where we simplified the DSI and the other for streamflow drought (QDAI), which is to our knowledge the first ever deficit anomaly drought index including surface water demand. Both indices are tested at the global scale with WaterGAP 2.2d outputs, providing more differentiated spatial and temporal patterns distinguishing the actual degree of respective drought hazard.
Xudong Zhou, Wenchao Ma, Wataru Echizenya, and Dai Yamazaki
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1071–1085, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1071-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1071-2021, 2021
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This article assesses different uncertainties in the analysis of flood risk and found the runoff generated before the river routing is the primary uncertainty source. This calls for attention to be focused on selecting an appropriate runoff for the flood analysis. The uncertainties are reflected in the flood water depth, inundation area and the exposure of the population and economy to the floods.
Kees C. H. van Ginkel, Francesco Dottori, Lorenzo Alfieri, Luc Feyen, and Elco E. Koks
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1011–1027, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1011-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1011-2021, 2021
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This study presents a state-of-the-art approach to assess flood damage for each unique road segment in Europe. We find a mean total flood risk of EUR 230 million per year for all individual road segments combined. We identify flood hotspots in the Alps, along the Sava River, and on the Scandinavian Peninsula. To achieve this, we propose a new set of damage curves for roads and challenge the community to validate and improve these. Analysis of network effects can be easily added to our analysis.
Gijs van Kempen, Karin van der Wiel, and Lieke Anna Melsen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 961–976, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-961-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-961-2021, 2021
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In this study, we combine climate model results with a hydrological model to investigate uncertainties in flood and drought risk. With the climate model, 2000 years of
current climatewas created. The hydrological model consisted of several building blocks that we could adapt. In this way, we could investigate the effect of these hydrological building blocks on high- and low-flow risk in four different climate zones with return periods of up to 500 years.
Yair Rinat, Francesco Marra, Moshe Armon, Asher Metzger, Yoav Levi, Pavel Khain, Elyakom Vadislavsky, Marcelo Rosensaft, and Efrat Morin
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 917–939, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-917-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-917-2021, 2021
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Flash floods are among the most devastating and lethal natural hazards worldwide. The study of such events is important as flash floods are poorly understood and documented processes, especially in deserts. A small portion of the studied basin (1 %–20 %) experienced extreme rainfall intensities resulting in local flash floods of high magnitudes. Flash floods started and reached their peak within tens of minutes. Forecasts poorly predicted the flash floods mostly due to location inaccuracy.
Huijun Li, Lin Zhu, Gaoxuan Guo, Yan Zhang, Zhenxue Dai, Xiaojuan Li, Linzhen Chang, and Pietro Teatini
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 823–835, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-823-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-823-2021, 2021
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We propose a method that integrates fuzzy set theory and a weighted Bayesian model to evaluate the hazard probability of land subsidence based on Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar technology. The proposed model can represent the uncertainty and ambiguity in the evaluation process, and results can be compared to traditional qualitative methods.
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Short summary
Classical statistical methods for flood frequency estimation assume flooding characteristics do not change over time. Recent focus on climate change has raised questions of the validity of such assumptions. Near-natural catchments are used to focus on climate (not land-use) change, investigating the sensitivity of trend estimates to the period of record. Some key statistics were very sensitive, but conclusive spatial patterns were not found. Smaller floods were most affected by these trends.
Classical statistical methods for flood frequency estimation assume flooding characteristics do...
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