Articles | Volume 19, issue 10
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 2157–2167, 2019
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-2157-2019
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 2157–2167, 2019
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-2157-2019
Research article
08 Oct 2019
Research article | 08 Oct 2019

Have trends changed over time? A study of UK peak flow data and sensitivity to observation period

Adam Griffin et al.

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Cited articles

Barker, L., Hannaford, J., Muchan, K., Turner, S., and Parry, S.: The winter 2015/2016 floods in the UK: a hydrological appraisal, Weather, 71, 324–333, https://doi.org/10.1002/wea.2822, 2016. 
Coles, S: An Introduction to Statistical Modelling of Extreme Values, Springer Series in Statistics, Springer London, London, 2001. 
Collet, L., Harrigan, S., Prudhomme, C., Formetta, G., and Beevers, L.: Future hot-spots for hydro-hazards in Great Britain: a probabilistic assessment, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 5387–5401, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-5387-2018, 2018. 
Cunderlik, J. M. and Burn, D. H.: Non-stationary pooled flood frequency analysis, J. Hydrol., 276, 210–223, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0022-1694(03)00062-3, 2003. 
Defra: National Flood Resilience Review, UK Government, London, 2016. 
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Short summary
Classical statistical methods for flood frequency estimation assume flooding characteristics do not change over time. Recent focus on climate change has raised questions of the validity of such assumptions. Near-natural catchments are used to focus on climate (not land-use) change, investigating the sensitivity of trend estimates to the period of record. Some key statistics were very sensitive, but conclusive spatial patterns were not found. Smaller floods were most affected by these trends.
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