Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
NHESS
Articles | Volume 19, issue 10
Articles | Volume 19, issue 10
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-2157-2019
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-2157-2019
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 19, issue 10
Research article
 | 
08 Oct 2019
Research article |  | 08 Oct 2019

Have trends changed over time? A study of UK peak flow data and sensitivity to observation period

Adam Griffin, Gianni Vesuviano, and Elizabeth Stewart

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Latest update: 23 Oct 2025
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Short summary
Classical statistical methods for flood frequency estimation assume flooding characteristics do not change over time. Recent focus on climate change has raised questions of the validity of such assumptions. Near-natural catchments are used to focus on climate (not land-use) change, investigating the sensitivity of trend estimates to the period of record. Some key statistics were very sensitive, but conclusive spatial patterns were not found. Smaller floods were most affected by these trends.
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