Articles | Volume 18, issue 10
Research article
02 Oct 2018
Research article |  | 02 Oct 2018

Has fire policy decreased the return period of the largest wildfire events in France? A Bayesian assessment based on extreme value theory

Guillaume Evin, Thomas Curt, and Nicolas Eckert

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Cited articles

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Bedia, J., Herrera, S., Camia, A., Moreno, J. M., and Gutiérrez, J. M.: Forest fire danger projections in the Mediterranean using ENSEMBLES regional climate change scenarios, Climatic Change, 122, 185–199,, 2014. a
Bhattacharyya, A.: On a Measure of Divergence between Two Multinomial Populations, Sankhyā: The Indian Journal of Statistics, 7, 401–406, 1946. a
Chatry, C., Le Gallou, J., Le Quentrec, M., Lafitte, J., Laurens, D., Creuchet, D., and Grelu, J.: Rapport de la mission interministérielle “Changements climatiques et extension des zones sensibles aux feux de forêts”, National Report on Climate Change and the Extension of Fire Prone Areas in France, Rapport Min. Alimentation Agriculture Pêche no. 1796, Paris, Tech. rep., 2010. a, b
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Short summary
Very large wildfires have high human, economic, and ecological impacts. Preventing such events is a major objective of the new fire policy set up in France in 1994, which is oriented towards fast and massive fire suppression. This study investigates the effect of this policy on the largest fires. We estimate the burned area corresponding to fires that occur every 5, 20, and 50 years on average (so-called return periods) in southern France.
Final-revised paper