Has fire policy decreased the return period of the largest wildfire events in France? A Bayesian assessment based on extreme value theory

Evin, Guillaume; Curt, Thomas; Eckert, Nicolas

doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-2641-2018

Articles | Volume 18, issue 10

https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-2641-2018

© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Special issue:

Spatial and temporal patterns of wildfires: models, theory,...

https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-2641-2018

© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Articles | Volume 18, issue 10

Research article

|

02 Oct 2018

Research article |

| 02 Oct 2018

Has fire policy decreased the return period of the largest wildfire events in France? A Bayesian assessment based on extreme value theory

Guillaume Evin, Thomas Curt, and Nicolas Eckert

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Final revised paper (published on 02 Oct 2018)
Preprint (discussion started on 08 Jun 2018)

Interactive discussion

Status: closed

AC: Author comment | RC: Referee comment | SC: Short comment | EC: Editor comment

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RC1: 'Referee's Report on Has fire policy decreased the return period of the largest wildfire events in France? A Bayesian assessment based on extreme value theory', Anonymous Referee #1, 27 Jul 2018
- AC1: 'Response to Anonymous Referee #1', Guillaume Evin, 28 Aug 2018
RC2: 'Revision of nhess-2018-151', Anonymous Referee #2, 27 Jul 2018
- AC2: 'Response to Anonymous Referee #2', Guillaume Evin, 28 Aug 2018

Peer-review completion

AR: Author's response | RR: Referee report | ED: Editor decision

ED: Publish as is (06 Sep 2018) by Mário Pereira

AR by Guillaume Evin on behalf of the Authors (13 Sep 2018) Manuscript

Short summary

Very large wildfires have high human, economic, and ecological impacts. Preventing such events is a major objective of the new fire policy set up in France in 1994, which is oriented towards fast and massive fire suppression. This study investigates the effect of this policy on the largest fires. We estimate the burned area corresponding to fires that occur every 5, 20, and 50 years on average (so-called return periods) in southern France.