Articles | Volume 16, issue 6
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 1323–1337, 2016

Special issue: Natural hazard event analyses for risk reduction and...

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 1323–1337, 2016

Research article 08 Jun 2016

Research article | 08 Jun 2016

A spatial Bayesian network model to assess the benefits of early warning for urban flood risk to people

Stefano Balbi et al.

Related authors

Flood depth estimation by means of high-resolution SAR images and lidar data
Fabio Cian, Mattia Marconcini, Pietro Ceccato, and Carlo Giupponi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 3063–3084,,, 2018

Related subject area

Risk Assessment, Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies, Socioeconomic and Management Aspects
Comparing an insurer's perspective on building damages with modelled damages from pan-European winter windstorm event sets: a case study from Zurich, Switzerland
Christoph Welker, Thomas Röösli, and David N. Bresch
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 279–299,,, 2021
Short summary
Probabilistic characterisation of coastal storm-induced risks using Bayesian networks
Marc Sanuy and Jose A. Jiménez
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 219–238,,, 2021
A glimpse into the future of exposure and vulnerabilities in cities? Modelling of residential location choice of urban population with random forest
Sebastian Scheuer, Dagmar Haase, Annegret Haase, Manuel Wolff, and Thilo Wellmann
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 203–217,,, 2021
Short summary
Invited perspectives: Building sustainable and resilient communities – recommended actions for natural hazard scientists
Joel C. Gill, Faith E. Taylor, Melanie J. Duncan, Solmaz Mohadjer, Mirianna Budimir, Hassan Mdala, and Vera Bukachi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 187–202,,, 2021
Short summary
Design of parametric risk transfer solutions for volcanic eruptions: an application to Japanese volcanoes
Delioma Oramas-Dorta, Giulio Tirabassi, Guillermo Franco, and Christina Magill
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 99–113,,, 2021
Short summary

Cited articles

Addor, N., Jaun, S., Fundel, F., and Zappa, M.: An operational hydrological ensemble prediction system for the city of Zurich (Switzerland): skill, case studies and scenarios, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 2327–2347,, 2011.
Adger, W. N. and Vincent, K.: Uncertainty in adaptive capacity, C. R. Geosci., 337, 399–410, 2005.
Amendola, A., Ermoliev, Y., Ermolieva, T. Y., Gitis, V., Koff, G., and Linnerooth-Bayer, J.: A systems approach to modeling catastrophic risk and insurability, Nat. Hazards, 21, 381–393, 2000.
Antonucci, A., Salvetti, A., and Zaffalon, M.: Hazard assessment of debris flows by credal networks, in: iEMSs, 98–103, 2004.
AWEL: Amt für Abfall, Wasser, Energie und Luft: Hochwasserschutz an Sihl, Zürichsee und Limmat: Integrales Risikomanagement und Massnahmenziel-Konzept, available at: (last access: 7 June 2016), 2013.
Short summary
This study develops a novel methodology to assess flood risk to people by integrating people’s vulnerability and ability to cushion hazards through coping and adapting. The model is used to estimate the effect of improving an existing early warning system. The proposed approach extends traditional risk assessments beyond material damages, complements quantitative and semi-quantitative data with subjective and local knowledge, and improves the use of commonly available information.
Final-revised paper