Articles | Volume 15, issue 4
Research article 13 Apr 2015
Research article | 13 Apr 2015
The structure of disaster resilience: a framework for simulations and policy recommendations
J. H. Y. Edwards
Related subject area
Risk Assessment, Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies, Socioeconomic and Management AspectsComparing an insurer's perspective on building damages with modelled damages from pan-European winter windstorm event sets: a case study from Zurich, SwitzerlandProbabilistic characterisation of coastal storm-induced risks using Bayesian networksA glimpse into the future of exposure and vulnerabilities in cities? Modelling of residential location choice of urban population with random forestInvited perspectives: Building sustainable and resilient communities – recommended actions for natural hazard scientistsDesign of parametric risk transfer solutions for volcanic eruptions: an application to Japanese volcanoesMulti-hazard risk assessment for roads: probabilistic versus deterministic approachesAre flood damage models converging to “reality”? Lessons learnt from a blind testBrief Communication: Simple-INSYDE, development of a new tool for flood damage evaluation from an existing synthetic modelA novel approach to assessing nuisance risk from seismicity induced by UK shale gas development, with implications for future policy designRapid flood risk screening model for compound flood events in Beira, MozambiqueTrends in social vulnerability to storm surges in Shenzhen, ChinaExploring the changes in risk perceptions and adaptation behaviors based on various socioeconomic characteristics before and after earthquake disasters – a case study in TaiwanRegional tropical cyclone impact functions for globally consistent risk assessmentsAnthropogenic climate change and glacier lake outburst flood risk: local and global drivers and responsibilities for the case of lake Palcacocha, PeruFlood vulnerability and risk assessment of urban traditional buildings in a heritage district of Kuala Lumpur, MalaysiaA generic physical vulnerability model for floods: review and concept for data-scarce regionsNatural hazard impacts on transport infrastructure in RussiaSpatial seismic hazard variation and adaptive sampling of portfolio location uncertainty in probabilistic seismic risk analysisAre new open building data useful for flood vulnerability modelling?Assessing and zoning of typhoon storm surge risk with GIS technique: A case study of the coastal area of HuizhouInduced seismicity risk analysis of the hydraulic stimulation of a geothermal well on Geldinganes, IcelandEnhancing the operational value of snowpack models with visualization design principlesNetwork-risk: an open GIS toolbox for estimating the implications of transportation network damage due to natural hazards, tested for Bucharest, RomaniaA multi-hazard risk prioritisation framework for cultural heritage assetsModeling of E. coli distribution for hazard assessment of bathing waters affected by combined sewer overflowsMonitoring of the reconstruction process in a high mountainous area affected by a major earthquake and subsequent hazardsReview article: Natural hazard risk assessments at the global scaleA spatial decision support system for enhancing resilience to floods: bridging resilience modelling and geovisualization techniquesGlobal-scale benefit–cost analysis of coastal flood adaptation to different flood risk drivers using structural measuresFlash floods versus river floods – a comparison of psychological impacts and implications for precautionary behaviourUrban pluvial flood risk assessment – data resolution and spatial scale when developing screening approaches on the microscaleLinking drought indices to impacts to support drought risk assessment in Liaoning province, ChinaExamining the sustainability and development challenge in agricultural-forest frontiers of the Amazon Basin through the eyes of localsGlobal-scale drought risk assessment for agricultural systemsReview article: Review of fragility analyses for major building types in China with new implications for intensity–PGA relation developmentThe whole is greater than the sum of its parts: a holistic graph-based assessment approach for natural hazard risk of complex systemsAssessing transportation vulnerability to tsunamis: utilising post-event field data from the 2011 Tōhoku tsunami, Japan, and the 2015 Illapel tsunami, ChileAnalysis of employment change in response to hurricane landfallsEstimating exposure of residential assets to natural hazards in Europe using open dataA flood-risk-oriented, dynamic protection motivation framework to explain risk reduction behavioursNature-based solutions for hydro-meteorological risk reduction: a state-of-the-art review of the research areaSandbag replacement systems – a nonsensical and costly alternative to sandbagging?Multi-coverage optimal location model for emergency medical service (EMS) facilities under various disaster scenarios: a case study of urban fluvial floods in the Minhang district of Shanghai, ChinaConstruction of regional multi-hazard interaction frameworks, with an application to GuatemalaEnhancing the resilience to flooding induced by levee breaches in lowland areas: a methodology based on numerical modellingImpact database application for natural and technological risk managementFramework to prioritize watersheds for diffuse pollution management in the Republic of Korea: application of multi-criteria analysis using the Delphi methodCrops' exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity to drought occurrenceAGRIDE-c, a conceptual model for the estimation of flood damage to crops: development and implementationEconomic assessment of precautionary measures against floods: insights from a non-contextual approach
Christoph Welker, Thomas Röösli, and David N. Bresch
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 279–299,Short summary
How representative are local building insurers' claims to assess winter windstorm risk? In our case study of Zurich, we use a risk model for windstorm building damages and compare three different inputs: insurance claims and historical and probabilistic windstorm datasets. We find that long-term risk is more robustly assessed based on windstorm datasets than on claims data only. Our open-access method allows European building insurers to complement their risk assessment with modelling results.
Marc Sanuy and Jose A. Jiménez
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 219–238,
Sebastian Scheuer, Dagmar Haase, Annegret Haase, Manuel Wolff, and Thilo Wellmann
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 203–217,Short summary
The choice of residential location is one of the drivers shaping risks in cities. We model likely outcomes of this decision-making process for distinct socioeconomic groups in the city of Leipzig, Germany, using random forests and geostatistical methods. In so doing, we uncover hot spots and cold spots that may indicate spatial patterns and trends in exposure and vulnerabilities of urban population, to shed light on how residential location choice affects these risk components as a process.
Joel C. Gill, Faith E. Taylor, Melanie J. Duncan, Solmaz Mohadjer, Mirianna Budimir, Hassan Mdala, and Vera Bukachi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 187–202,Short summary
This paper draws on the experiences of seven early career scientists, in different sectors and contexts, to explore the improved integration of natural hazard science into broader efforts to reduce the likelihood and impacts of disasters. We include recommendations for natural hazard scientists, to improve education, training, and research design and to strengthen institutional, financial, and policy actions. We hope to provoke discussion and catalyse changes that will help reduce disaster risk.
Delioma Oramas-Dorta, Giulio Tirabassi, Guillermo Franco, and Christina Magill
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 99–113,Short summary
Large volcanic eruptions are rare events; however, they may cause significant economic losses. This work explores a specific type of insurance (parametric insurance) applied to such events. Unlike traditional insurance where payouts occur after often lengthy loss assessments, this type of insurance makes automatic and prompt payments on the basis of the eruption attaining threshold values for objective and easily measurable characteristics (height and direction of the eruption column).
Stefan Oberndorfer, Philip Sander, and Sven Fuchs
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 3135–3160,Short summary
The article provides a comparison of a standard (deterministic) risk assessment approach for roads exposed to a multi-hazard environment with a probabilistic risk analysis method to show the potential bias in the results. A probabilistic approach enables the quantification of epistemic uncertainty and uses probability distributions to characterize data uncertainty of the input variables, while a deterministic computation uses single values with discrete values without uncertainty representation.
Daniela Molinari, Anna Rita Scorzini, Chiara Arrighi, Francesca Carisi, Fabio Castelli, Alessio Domeneghetti, Alice Gallazzi, Marta Galliani, Frédéric Grelot, Patric Kellermann, Heidi Kreibich, Guilherme S. Mohor, Markus Mosimann, Stephanie Natho, Claire Richert, Kai Schroeter, Annegret H. Thieken, Andreas Paul Zischg, and Francesco Ballio
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2997–3017,Short summary
Flood risk management requires a realistic estimation of flood losses. However, the capacity of available flood damage models to depict real damages is questionable. With a joint effort of eight research groups, the objective of this study was to compare the performances of nine models for the estimation of flood damage to buildings. The comparison provided more objective insights on the transferability of the models and on the reliability of their estimations.
Marta Galliani, Daniela Molinari, and Francesco Ballio
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2937–2941,Short summary
INSYDE is a multivariable synthetic model for flood damage assessment of dwellings. The analysis and use of this model highlighted some weaknesses, linked to its complexity, that can undermine its usability and correct implementation. This study proposes a simplified version of INSYDE which maintains its multivariable and synthetic nature but has simpler mathematical formulations permitting an easier use and a direct analysis of the relation between damage and its explanatory variables.
Gemma Cremen and Maximilian J. Werner
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2701–2719,Short summary
We develop a framework that links the volume of hydraulic fracturing fluid injected during shale gas exploration with the likelihood that resulting seismicity causes a nuisance to nearby populations. We apply the framework to a shale gas site in England and find that the potential of a given injected volume to produce nuisance ground motions is especially sensitive to assumptions about the amount of seismic energy released during operations. The work can inform policy on shale gas exploration.
Erik C. van Berchum, Mathijs van Ledden, Jos S. Timmermans, Jan H. Kwakkel, and Sebastiaan N. Jonkman
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2633–2646,Short summary
Flood risk management is especially complicated in coastal cities. The complexity of multiple flood hazards in a rapidly changing urban environment leads to a situation with many different potential measures and future scenarios. This research demonstrates a new model capable of quickly simulating flood impact and comparing many different strategies. This is applied to the city of Beira, where it was able to provide new insights into the local flood risk and potential strategies.
Huaming Yu, Yuhang Shen, Ryan M. Kelly, Xin Qi, Kejian Wu, Songlin Li, Haiqing Yu, and Xianwen Bao
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2447–2462,Short summary
This study establishes an indicator system for social vulnerability evaluation of storm surges for coastal cities. The indicator system is applied to Shenzhen, China, and socioeconomic impacts are discovered in the results. Exposure, sensitivity, and resilience all show an increasing trend from 1986 to 2016, as resilience accounts for the largest increase and is connected to a decreasing social vulnerability trend.
Tzu-Ling Chen, Tzu-Yuan Chao, and Hao-Teng Cheng
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2433–2446,Short summary
Although disaster experience does indeed play an important role in helping people become aware of earthquake risk, disaster experience does not necessarily increase people’s willingness to retrofit their houses. People with higher education and certain occupations represent those who might have more available resources, and therefore they might become more willing to prepare for and respond to disasters.
Samuel Eberenz, Samuel Lüthi, and David N. Bresch
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss.,
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESSShort summary
Asset damage caused by tropical cyclones is often computed based on impact functions mapping wind speed to damage. However, a lack of regional impact functions can lead to a substantial bias in tropical cyclone risk estimates. Here, we present regionally calibrated impact functions as well as global risk estimates. Our results are relevant for researchers, model developers, and practitioners in the context of global risk assessments, climate change adaptation, and physical risk disclosure.
Christian Huggel, Mark Carey, Adam Emmer, Holger Frey, Noah Walker-Crawford, and Ivo Wallimann-Helmer
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2175–2193,Short summary
There is increasing interest and need to analyze the contribution of anthropogenic climate change to negative impacts of climate change. We study the case of glacial lake Palcacocha in Peru, which poses a significant flood risk to the city of Huaraz. We found that greenhouse gas emissions; strong urbanization processes without appropriate land use planning; and social, cultural, political, and institutional factors all contribute to the existing flood risk.
Dina D'Ayala, Kai Wang, Yuan Yan, Helen Smith, Ashleigh Massam, Valeriya Filipova, and Joy Jacqueline Pereira
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2221–2241,Short summary
A localized empirical model consisting of multilevel parameters has been built to evaluate the flood vulnerability of residential buildings in a heritage community of Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia. A new economic loss model is developed to quantify the flood risk in terms of replacement cost, taking into account both specific vulnerability and a normalized depth–damage ratio function. The findings provide multiscale flood-resistant strategies for the protection of individual residential buildings.
Mark Bawa Malgwi, Sven Fuchs, and Margreth Keiler
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2067–2090,Short summary
Mitigation planning and economic loss assessment generally rely on flood damage prediction models. However, unavailability of empirical data has limited the use of such models in data-scarce areas. This paper combines the vulnerability indicator and damage grade approach to develop a conceptual framework for predicting building damage in data-scarce regions. The framework can be implemented using only expert knowledge and facilitates transferability of flood damage models in data-scarce areas.
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1969–1983,Short summary
Using the information of the author's database, contributions of natural hazards and adverse weather to occurrences of different types of transport accidents and traffic disruptions including road, railway, air, and water transport were revealed. Regional differences in the risk of transport accidents and traffic disruptions caused by adverse natural impacts between Russian federal regions were found. The resulting maps were created and analyzed. Regions most at risk were identified.
Christoph Scheingraber and Martin Käser
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1903–1918,Short summary
Probabilistic seismic risk analysis is widely used in the insurance industry to model losses to insured portfolios by earthquake events. Risk items are often only known to be located within an administrative geographical zone, but precise coordinates remain unknown to the modeler. We analyze spatial seismic hazard and loss rate variation inside administrative zones in western Indonesia. Building upon this, we present a novel framework for efficient treatment of portfolio location uncertainty.
Marco Cerri, Max Steinhausen, Heidi Kreibich, and Kai Schröter
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss.,
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESSShort summary
Effective flood management requires information about the potential consequences of flooding. We show how openly accessible data from OpenStreetMap can support the estimation of flood damage for residential buildings. Working with methods of machine learning, the building geometry is used to predict flood damage in combination with information about inundation depth. Our approach makes it easier to transfer models to regions where no detailed data of flood impacts have been observed yet.
Si Wang, Lin Mu, Zhenfeng Yao, Jia Gao, and Enjin Zhao
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss.,
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESSShort summary
The study provides a comprehensive assessment and zonation of hazard, vulnerability, and risk of storm surge caused by the designed typhoon scenarios in the coastal area of Huizhou. The risk maps can help decision-makers to develop evacuation strategies to minimize civilian casualties. The risk analysis can be utilized to identify risk regions to reduce economic losses. The proposed methodology and procedure can be applied to any coastal cities in China for making risk assessments.
Marco Broccardo, Arnaud Mignan, Francesco Grigoli, Dimitrios Karvounis, Antonio Pio Rinaldi, Laurentiu Danciu, Hannes Hofmann, Claus Milkereit, Torsten Dahm, Günter Zimmermann, Vala Hjörleifsdóttir, and Stefan Wiemer
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1573–1593,Short summary
This study presents a first-of-its-kind pre-drilling probabilistic induced seismic risk analysis for the Geldinganes (Iceland) deep-hydraulic stimulation. The results of the assessment indicate that the individual risk within a radius of 2 km around the injection point is below the safety limits. However, the analysis is affected by a large variability due to the presence of pre-drilling deep uncertainties. This suggests the need for online risk updating during the stimulation.
Simon Horton, Stan Nowak, and Pascal Haegeli
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1557–1572,Short summary
Numeric snowpack models currently offer limited value to operational avalanche forecasters. To improve the relevance and interpretability of model data, we introduce and discuss visualization principles that map model data into visual representations that can inform avalanche hazard assessments.
Dragos Toma-Danila, Iuliana Armas, and Alexandru Tiganescu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1421–1439,Short summary
Natural hazards have an increasing impact on transportation networks. In order to analyze it we developed Network-risk – an open toolbox for ArcGIS. The toolbox links input data such as network datasets (also OpenStreetMap – OSM – data), traffic values or segments which can be affected, determining the difficulty to reach an area and enabling evaluation of socioeconomic implications. By testing Network-risk for Bucharest we show areas difficult to reach by emergency units in earthquakes.
Giacomo Sevieri, Carmine Galasso, Dina D'Ayala, Richard De Jesus, Andres Oreta, Mary Earl Daryl A. Grio, and Rhodella Ibabao
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1391–1414,Short summary
Multi-hazard risk assessment of cultural heritage assets is of primary importance in natural-hazard-prone areas, particularly for the prioritization of disaster risk reduction and resilience-enhancing strategies. This paper introduces a multi-hazard risk prioritisation framework specifically developed for cultural heritage assets. The proposed framework relies on a multi-level rapid-visual-survey form for the multi-hazard data collection and risk prioritization of case-study assets.
Luca Locatelli, Beniamino Russo, Alejandro Acero Oliete, Juan Carlos Sánchez Catalán, Eduardo Martínez-Gomariz, and Montse Martínez
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1219–1232,Short summary
Bathing water quality at public beaches is often compromised by the presence of urban sewer systems that usually discharge, mostly during rainfalls, untreated sewer water into lakes, rivers or seas. In this study we analyzed and quantified the impact of sewer discharges into the sea of a large Spanish city. This study provides a useful idea for local water managers and for people bathing in these areas about how long and how much an urban sewer system can affect the seawater quality.
Chenxiao Tang, Xinlei Liu, Yinghua Cai, Cees Van Westen, Yu Yang, Hai Tang, Chengzhang Yang, and Chuan Tang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1163–1186,Short summary
Recovering from major earthquakes is a challenge due to a destablized environment. Over 11 years, we monitored a region hit by the Wenchuan earthquake, finding the loss caused by postseismic hazards was more than that caused by the earthquake. The main reason was a rush in reconstruction without proper hazard and risk assessment. It was concluded that postseismic recovery should consider not only spatial but also temporal dynamics of hazards as well as possible interaction among hazards.
Philip J. Ward, Veit Blauhut, Nadia Bloemendaal, James E. Daniell, Marleen C. de Ruiter, Melanie J. Duncan, Robert Emberson, Susanna F. Jenkins, Dalia Kirschbaum, Michael Kunz, Susanna Mohr, Sanne Muis, Graeme A. Riddell, Andreas Schäfer, Thomas Stanley, Ted I. E. Veldkamp, and Hessel C. Winsemius
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1069–1096,Short summary
We review the scientific literature on natural hazard risk assessments at the global scale. In doing so, we examine similarities and differences between the approaches taken across the different hazards and identify potential ways in which different hazard communities can learn from each other. Finally, we discuss opportunities for learning from methods and approaches being developed and applied to assess natural hazard risks at more continental or regional scales.
Charlotte Heinzlef, Vincent Becue, and Damien Serre
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1049–1068,Short summary
The objective of this article is to propose a spatial decision support tool based on geovisualization techniques and a resilience assessment method for flood risk management. The methodology proposed integrates decision-making by identifying characteristics of urban resilience to facilitate its understanding with a visual tool. Results demonstrate a way to operationalize the concept of resilience at a local scale, integrating local stakeholders into a participative process.
Timothy Tiggeloven, Hans de Moel, Hessel C. Winsemius, Dirk Eilander, Gilles Erkens, Eskedar Gebremedhin, Andres Diaz Loaiza, Samantha Kuzma, Tianyi Luo, Charles Iceland, Arno Bouwman, Jolien van Huijstee, Willem Ligtvoet, and Philip J. Ward
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1025–1044,Short summary
We present a framework to evaluate the benefits and costs of coastal adaptation through dikes to reduce future flood risk. If no adaptation takes place, we find that global coastal flood risk increases 150-fold by 2080, with sea-level rise contributing the most. Moreover, 15 countries account for 90 % of this increase; that adaptation shows high potential to cost-effectively reduce flood risk. The results will be integrated into the Aqueduct Global Flood Analyzer web tool.
Jonas Laudan, Gert Zöller, and Annegret H. Thieken
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 999–1023,Short summary
The paper focuses on psychological impacts of river floods and flash floods on affected individuals. Since the connection between psychological characteristics and protection motivation is not yet fully understood, potential coherences are investigated with regard to both flood types. As a main result, the frequency of remembering an event seems to be positively connected to a greater willingness to protect oneself, especially if affected by a weaker flood event.
Roland Löwe and Karsten Arnbjerg-Nielsen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 981–997,Short summary
To consider potential future urban developments in pluvial flood risk assessment, we develop empirical relationships for imperviousness and flood damage based on an analysis of existing urban characteristics. Results suggest that (1) data resolutions must be carefully selected, (2) there are lower limits for the spatial scale at which predictions can be generated, and (3) depth-dependent damage estimates are challenging to reproduce empirically and can be vulnerable to simulation artifacts.
Yaxu Wang, Juan Lv, Jamie Hannaford, Yicheng Wang, Hongquan Sun, Lucy J. Barker, Miaomiao Ma, Zhicheng Su, and Michael Eastman
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 889–906,Short summary
Due to the specific applicability of drought impact indicators, this study identifies which drought indicators are suitable for characterising drought impacts and the contribution of vulnerability factors. The results show that the relationship varies across different drought impacts and cities; some factors have a strong positive correlation with drought vulnerability. This study can support drought planning work and provide background for the indices used in drought monitoring applications.
Irene Blanco-Gutiérrez, Rhys Manners, Consuelo Varela-Ortega, Ana M. Tarquis, Lucieta G. Martorano, and Marisol Toledo
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 797–813,Short summary
The Amazon rainforest is being destroyed, resulting in negative ecological and social impacts. We explore how stakeholders perceive the causes of the Amazon's degradation in Bolivia and Brazil and develop a series of scenarios to help strengthen the balance between human development and environmental conservation. The results suggest that the application of governance and well-integrated technical and social reform strategies encourages positive regional changes even under climate change.
Isabel Meza, Stefan Siebert, Petra Döll, Jürgen Kusche, Claudia Herbert, Ehsan Eyshi Rezaei, Hamideh Nouri, Helena Gerdener, Eklavyya Popat, Janna Frischen, Gustavo Naumann, Jürgen V. Vogt, Yvonne Walz, Zita Sebesvari, and Michael Hagenlocher
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 695–712,Short summary
The paper presents, for the first time, a global-scale drought risk assessment for both irrigated and rainfed agricultural systems while considering drought hazard indicators, exposure and expert-weighted vulnerability indicators. We identify global patterns of drought risk and, by disaggregating risk into its underlying components and factors, provide entry points for risk reduction.
Danhua Xin, James Edward Daniell, and Friedemann Wenzel
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 643–672,Short summary
Field surveys after major disastrous earthquakes have shown that poor performance of buildings in earthquake-affected areas is the leading cause of human fatalities and economic losses. The evaluation of seismic fragility for existing building stocks has become a crucial issue due to the frequent occurrence of earthquakes in the last decades. This study conducts such a comprehensive review for mainland China and aims to better serve the natural disaster prevention and mitigation cause in China.
Marcello Arosio, Mario L. V. Martina, and Rui Figueiredo
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 521–547,Short summary
Assessing the risk of complex systems to natural hazards is an important and challenging problem. In today’s socio-technological world, the connections and interdependencies between exposed elements are crucial. These complex relations call for a paradigm shift in collective risk assessment. This paper proposes a holistic, graph-based approach for assessing the risk of complex systems. The feasibility of the approach is discussed by an application to a pilot study in Mexico City.
James H. Williams, Thomas M. Wilson, Nick Horspool, Ryan Paulik, Liam Wotherspoon, Emily M. Lane, and Matthew W. Hughes
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 451–470,Short summary
Post-event field survey data from two tsunami events, the 2011 Tōhoku tsunami, Japan, and the 2015 Illapel tsunami, Chile, are used in this study to develop fragility functions for roads and bridges. This study demonstrates the effectiveness of supplementing post-event field surveys with remotely sensed data. The resulting fragility functions address a substantial research gap in tsunami impacts on infrastructure and include a range of subtleties in asset and hazard characteristics.
Yuepeng Cui, Daan Liang, and Bradley Ewing
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 413–424,Short summary
The methodology presented in this paper is considered an important entry point to addressing the complex problems related to disaster resilience. Regardless of storms, hurricane impact on local employment is found to be either temporary or permanent in nature. Relating the concept of resilience to observable socioeconomic activities helps us gain a deeper understanding of the drivers and processes of post-storm recovery. Studies play a major role in bridging knowledge gaps.
Dominik Paprotny, Heidi Kreibich, Oswaldo Morales-Nápoles, Paweł Terefenko, and Kai Schröter
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 323–343,Short summary
Houses and their contents in Europe are worth trillions of euros, resulting in high losses from natural hazards. Hence, risk assessments need to reliably estimate the size and value of houses, including the value of durable goods kept inside. In this work we show how openly available or open datasets can be used to predict the size of individual residential buildings. Further, we provide standardized monetary values of houses and contents per square metre of floor space for 30 countries.
Philippe Weyrich, Elena Mondino, Marco Borga, Giuliano Di Baldassarre, Anthony Patt, and Anna Scolobig
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 287–298,
Laddaporn Ruangpan, Zoran Vojinovic, Silvana Di Sabatino, Laura Sandra Leo, Vittoria Capobianco, Amy M. P. Oen, Michael E. McClain, and Elena Lopez-Gunn
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 243–270,Short summary
This article aims to provide a critical review of the literature and indicate some directions for future research based on the current knowledge gaps in the area of nature-based solutions (NBSs) for hydro-meteorological risk reduction. The final full analysis was performed on 146 closely related articles. A review showed that many advancements related to NBSs have been made to date, but there are still many challenges that will play an important role in extending knowledge in the coming years.
Lena Lankenau, Christopher Massolle, Bärbel Koppe, and Veronique Krull
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 197–220,Short summary
Sandbag and sandbag replacement systems (SBRSs) for flood defence are compared in terms of functionality (practical tests), costs, time, helpers and logistics (fictitious realistic scenarios). SBRSs are comparable in their functionality to sandbagging. All of the SBRSs considered show time-saving and logistical advantages. Under the assumed conditions, the higher investment costs of the SBRSs are offset with one subsequent reuse of the system owing to lower costs for helpers and logistics.
Yuhan Yang, Jie Yin, Mingwu Ye, Dunxian She, and Jia Yu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 181–195,Short summary
Emergency medical service (EMS) response is important for pre-hospital lifesaving, but disasters increase the difficulty of rescue, which increases the pressure on EMS facilities. In order to avoid the failure of EMS facilities during disasters, we propose a multi-coverage optimal location model for EMS facilities based on results of disaster risk assessment. Results showed that the optimized EMS locations reduced the delay in response and significantly increased the number of rescued people.
Joel C. Gill, Bruce D. Malamud, Edy Manolo Barillas, and Alex Guerra Noriega
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 149–180,Short summary
This paper describes a replicable approach for characterising interactions between natural hazards. Guatemala is exposed to multiple natural hazards, which do not always occur independently. There can be interactions between natural hazards. For example, one hazard may trigger multiple secondary hazards, which can subsequently trigger further hazards. Here we use diverse evidence of such interactions to construct matrices of hazard interactions in Guatemala at national and sub-national scales.
Alessia Ferrari, Susanna Dazzi, Renato Vacondio, and Paolo Mignosa
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 59–72,Short summary
With the aim of improving resilience to flooding, this paper presents a methodology for creating a wide database of hypothetical levee-breach scenarios obtained from 2-D numerical modelling. The results can support civil protection activities during emergency planning and management, increasing preparedness against floods. The methodology is applicable to any lowland area protected by river levees. An example of the outcome concerning a pilot area in northern Italy is presented here.
Nina Frolova, Valery Larionov, Jean Bonnin, Sergey Suchshev, Alexander Ugarov, and Nataliya Malaeva
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 95–106,Short summary
The paper is devoted to the structure and content of impact databases for natural disasters and technological accidents. The application of the database for disaster risk assessment and management is highlighted. Special attention is paid to usage of impact data for calibration of earthquake loss models in order to increase the reliability of near-real-time estimates.
Gyumin Lee, Kyung Soo Jun, and Minji Kang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 2767–2779,Short summary
This study proposes a system for the scientific selection of evaluation indices and priority areas for non-point source control. We developed a framework to prioritize catchments in terms of the risk of non-point source pollution considering the characteristics of polluted runoff from a non-point source using a multi-criteria decision-making method.
Catarina Alonso, Celia M. Gouveia, Ana Russo, and Patrícia Páscoa
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 2727–2743,Short summary
A vulnerability assessment method is proposed to identify the most vulnerable regions over Portugal. Two methods were compared, namely a subjective categorical method and an automatic method, based on drought indicators, vegetation indices and soil variables. Both methods present similar results, and both identify Minho (Alentejo) as having low (extreme) vulnerability. The automatic method has advantages, as it is fully statistical and presents results without prior knowledge of the region.
Daniela Molinari, Anna Rita Scorzini, Alice Gallazzi, and Francesco Ballio
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 2565–2582,Short summary
The paper presents AGRIDE-c: a conceptual model for the estimation of flood damage to crops. The model estimates both the physical damage on the plants and its economic consequences on the income of the farmers. This allows AGRIDE-c to support effective damage mitigation strategies, at both public and individual farmer levels. The model can be adapted to different geographical and economic contexts, as exemplified by its implementation for the context of northern Italy.
Claire Richert, Hélène Boisgontier, and Frédéric Grelot
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 2525–2539,Short summary
To limit the losses due to floods, people can adopt measures to protect their dwellings. We assessed the cost and efficacy of such measures using computer modelling. We found that the benefits of most of the measures studied are unlikely to exceed their cost when they are taken in dwellings that are not exposed to frequent floods (probability of occurrence of less than 1 / 100 per year). It is also often less expensive to use building materials adapted to floods than other common materials.
Arrow, K.: Essays in the Theory of Risk-Bearing, North-Holland Publishing Company, Amsterdam, 1970.
Atkinson, A.: On the measurement of poverty, Econometrica, 55, 749–764, 1987.
Birkmann, J., Cardona, O. D., Carreño, M. L., Barbat, A. H., Pelling, M., Schneiderbauer, S., Kienberger, S., Keiler, M., Alexander, D., Zeil, P., and Welle, T.: Framing vulnerability, risk and societal responses: the MOVE framework, Nat. Hazards, 67, 193–211, 2013.
Cabot-Venton, C. C., Fitzgibbon, C., Shitarek, T., Coulter, L., and Dooley, O.: The Economics of Early Response and Disaster Resilience: Lessons from Kenya and Ethiopia, Department for International Development (DFID), United Kingdom, 2012.
Calvo, C. and Dercon, S.: Measuring Individual Vulnerability, Economics Series Working Papers 229, University of Oxford, Department of Economics, available at: http://www.economics.ox.ac.uk/materials/working_papers/paper229.pdf (last access: 20 January 2014), 2005.
Camerer, C. F. and Kunreuther, H.: Decision processes for low probability events: policy implications, J. Policy Anal. Manag., 8, 565–592, 1989.
Carter, M. R., Little, P., Mogues, T., and Negatu, W.: The Long-Term Impacts of Short-Term Shocks: Poverty Traps and Environmental Disasters in Ethiopia and Honduras, BASIS Brief No. 28, Collaborative Research Support program, Department of Agricultural and Applied Economics, University of Wisconsin, Madison, 2005.
Carter, M. R., Little, P., Mogues, T., and Negatu, W.: Poverty traps and natural disasters in Ethiopia and Honduras, World Dev., 35, 835–856, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2006.09.010, 2007.
Chernick, A. F. and Haughwout, H.: Economic resilience, fiscal resilience & federalism, in: Risking House and Home, chap. 8, edited by: Quigley, J. and Rosenthal, L., Berkeley Public Policy Press, Institute of Governmental Studies Publications, Berkeley, California, 39–59, 2008.
Cohen, C. and Werker, E. D.: The political economy of "natural" disasters, J. Conflict Resolut., 52, 795–819, 2008.
De Mel, S., McKenzie, D., and Woodruff, C.: Enterprise recovery following natural disasters, Econ. J., 122, 64–91, 2012.
Elliott, M. and Quintino, V.: The estuarine quality paradox, environmental homeostasis and the difficulty of detecting anthropogenic stress in naturally stressed areas, Mar. Pollut. Bull., 54, 640–645, 2007.
Emanuel, K.: Increasing destructiveness of tropical cyclones over the past 30 years, Nature, 436, 686–688, 2005.
Fannin, J. M., Barreca, J. D., and Detre, J. D.: The role of public wealth in recovery and resiliency to natural disasters in rural communities, Am. J. Agr. Econ., 94, 549–555, 2012.
Fielding, J. L.: Inequalities in exposure and awareness of flood risk in England and Wales, Disasters, 36, 477–494, 2012.
Foster, J., Greer, J., and Thornbecke, E.: A class of decomposable poverty measures, Econometrica, 52, 761–766, 1984.
Frankenberger, T., Spangler, T., Nelson, S., and Langworthy, M.: Enhancing Resilience to Food Security Shocks in Africa, TANGO International, 2012.
G&C Merriam and Co: Webster's Unabridged Dictionary of the English Language, Springfield Massachussets, 1971.
Gallopín, G.: Linkages between vulnerability, resilience, and adaptive capacity, Global Environ. Change, 16, 293–303, 2006.
Gunderson, L.: Resilience, flexibility and adaptive management – antidotes for spurious certitude?, Ecol. Soc., 3, 7, 1999.
Gunderson, L., Holling, C. S., Pritchard, L., and Peterson, G. D.: Resilience in Ecosystems, Institutions, and Societies, Beijer Discussion Paper Series No. 95, Beijer International Institute of Ecological Economics, The Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences, 1997.
Horwich, G.: Economic lessons of the Kobe Earthquake, Econ. Dev. Cult. Change, 48, 521–541, 2000.
Kahnemann, D., Slovic, P., and Tversky, A.: Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases, Cambridge University Press, New York, 1982.
Kahn, M.: The death toll from natural disasters, Rev. Econ. Stat., 87, 271–284, 2005.
Keefer, P., Neumeyer, E., and Plumper, T.: Earthquake propensity and the politics of mortality prevention, World Dev., 39, 1530–1541, 2011.
Kellenberg, D. K. and Mobarak, A. M.: Does rising income increase or decrease damage risk from natural disasters?, J. Urban Econ., 63, 788–802, 2008.
Khun, T. S.: The Structure of Scientific Revolutions, Univ. of Chicago Press, 1962.
Kunreuther, H. and Pauly, M.: Insuring Against Catastrophes, Risk Management and Decision Processes Center, The Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania, April 2009, 2009.
Hallegatte, S. and Przyluski, V.: The Economics of Natural Disasters: Concepts and Methods, World Bank Policy Research Working Paper No. 5507, available at: http://elibrary.worldbank.org/doi/pdf/10.1596/1813-9450-5507, 2010.
Healy, A. and Malhotra, M.: Myopic voters and natural disaster policy, Am. Polit. Sci. Rev., 103, 387–406, 2009.
Jaffee, D. and Russell, T.: Financing catastrophe insurance, in: Risking House and Home, edited by: Quigley, J. and Rosenthal, L., Berkeley Public Policy Press, Institute of Governmental Studies Publications, Berkeley, California, 37–46, 2008.
Levine, S., Pain, A., Bailey, S., and Fan, L.: The Relevance of "Resilience"?, Human Policy Group Policy Brief #49, available at: http://www.odi.org.uk/sites/odi.org.uk/files/odi-assets/publications-opinion-files/7818.pdf (last access: 15 January 2014), 2012.
McAslan, A.: The concept of resilience, understanding its origins, meaning and utility, Torrens Resilience Institute, available at: http://sustainablecommunitiessa.files.wordpress.com/2011/06/community-resilience-from-torrens-institute.pdf (last access: 20 July 2014), 2010.
Meadows, D. H., Meadows, D. L., Randers, J., and Behrens, W. W.: The Limits to Growth: a Report for the Club of Rome, Universe Books, New York, NY, 1972.
Nordhaus, W.: Geography and macroeconomics: new data and new findings, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 103, 3510–3517, 2006.
Nordhaus, W.: The economics of hurricanes and implications of global warming, Clim. Change Econom., 1, 1–20, 2010.
Noy, I.: The macroeconomic consequences of disasters, J. Dev. Econ., 88, 221–231, 2009.
Oates, W. E.: Fiscal Federalism, Harcourt Brace Jovanovich, New York, 1972.
Pielke Jr., R. A., Gratz, J., Landsea, C. W., Collins, D., Saunders, M. A., and Musulin, R.: Normalized hurricane damages in the United States: 1900–2005, Nat. Hazards Rev., 9, 29–42, 2008.
Ravallion, M.: Expected poverty under risk-induced welfare variability, Econ. J., 98, 1171–1182, 1988.
Runyan, R. C.: Small business in the face of the crisis: identifying barriers to recovery from a natural disaster, J. Contingen. Crisis Manage., 14, 12–26, 2006.
Sen, A.: Poverty: an ordinal approach to measurement, Econometrica, 44, 219–231, 1976.
Sen, A.: Issues in the Measurement of Poverty, Scan. J. Econom., 81, 285–307, 1979.
Thieken, A. H., Mariani, S., Longfield, S., and Vanneuville, W.: "Preface: Flood resilient communities – managing the consequences of flooding, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 33–39, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-33-2014, 2014.
Tierney, K.: Hurricane Katrina catastrophic impacts and alarming lessons, in: Risking House and Home, chap. 7, edited by: Quigley, J. and Rosenthal, L., Berkeley Public Policy Press, Institute of Governmental Studies Publications, Berkeley, California, 119–138, 2008.
Tiebout, C.: A pure theory of local expenditures, J. Polit. Econ., 64, 416–424, 1956.
Tversky, A., Shmuel, S., and Slovic, P.: Contingent weighting in judgment and choice, Psychol. Rev., 95, 371–384, 1988.
UNDP Drylands Development Center: Community Based Resilience Assessment (CoBRA) Conceptual Framework and Methodology, available at: http://www.disasterriskreduc-tion.net/fileadmin/user_upload/drought/docs/CoBRA Conceptual Framework.pdf (last access: 1 August 2013), 2013.
United Nations: Conference on Sustainable Development, available at: http://www.uncsd2012.org/history.html (last access: 23 July 2014), 2012.
USAID: Resilience, available at: http://www.usaid.gov/resilience (last access: 8 August 2013), 2013a.
USAID: The Resilience Agenda, available at: http://transition.usaid.gov/resilience/ResilienceAgenda2Pager.pdf (8 August 2013), 2013b.
G&C Merriam and Co: Webster's Unabridged Dictionary of the English Language, Springfield Massachussets, 1971.
Wildasin, D.: Disaster policies some implications for public finance in the U.S. Federation, Public Finance Rev., 36, 497–518, 2008.
Wildasin, D.: Disaster Avoidance, Disaster Relief, and Policy Coordination in a Federation, mimeo, Martin School of Public Policy, University of Kentucky, 2011.
Zeckhauser, R.: Medical insurance: a case study of the trade-off between risk spreading and appropriate incentives, J. Econ. Theory, 2, 10–26, 1970.
Zentner, N. A., Humbert, N., and Viallet, E.: Numerical Calculation of Fragility Curves for Probabilistic Seismic Risk Assessment, 14th World Conference on Earthquake Engineering, 12–17 October 2008, Beijing, China, available at: http://www.iitk.ac.in/nicee/wcee/article/14_05-01-0246.PDF (last access: 8 August 2013), 2008.
Resilience to disaster is best understood as a multilevel process that involves individuals, families, NGOs, the private sector, and several layers of government. I describe this system, model it, and point out that it is currently uncoordinated. I then scour the literature on the economics of disaster for evidence of what works. I end by proposing a coordinated multilayer world system for disaster resilience and illustrate how it might work with examples of financial resilience to disaster.
Resilience to disaster is best understood as a multilevel process that involves individuals,...