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An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union
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Volume 15, issue 7
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 1639–1644, 2015
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-1639-2015
© Author(s) 2015. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-1639-2015
© Author(s) 2015. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Special issue: Landslide Prediction & Forecasting
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 1639–1644, 2015
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-1639-2015
© Author(s) 2015. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-1639-2015
© Author(s) 2015. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Research article 29 Jul 2015
Research article | 29 Jul 2015
Landslide early warning based on failure forecast models: the example of the Mt. de La Saxe rockslide, northern Italy
A. Manconi and D. Giordan
Related authors
Andrea Manconi, Velio Coviello, Maud Galletti, and Reto Seifert
Earth Surf. Dynam., 6, 1219–1227, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-6-1219-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-6-1219-2018, 2018
Short summary
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We evaluated the performance of the low-cost seismic Raspberry Shake (RS) sensors to identify and monitor rockfall activity in alpine environments. The sensors have been tested for a 1-year period in a high alpine environment, recording numerous rock failure events as well as local and distant earthquakes. This study demonstrates that the RS instruments provide a good option to build low seismic monitoring networks to monitor different kinds of geophysical phenomena.
D. Giordan, A. Manconi, P. Allasia, and D. Bertolo
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 2009–2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-2009-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-2009-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
Straightforward communication of monitoring results is of major importance in emergency scenarios relevant to large slope instabilities. Here we describe the communication strategy developed for the Mont de La Saxe case study, a large rockslide threatening La Palud and Entrèves hamlets in the Courmayeur municipality (Aosta Valley, Italy).
D. Giordan, A. Manconi, A. Facello, M. Baldo, F. dell'Anese, P. Allasia, and F. Dutto
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 163–169, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-163-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-163-2015, 2015
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In recent years, the use of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) in civilian/commercial contexts is becoming increasingly common, also for the applications concerning the anthropic and natural disasters. In this paper, we present the first results of a research project aimed at defining a possible methodology for the use of micro-UAVs in emergency scenarios relevant to rockfall phenomena.
A. Manconi, F. Casu, F. Ardizzone, M. Bonano, M. Cardinali, C. De Luca, E. Gueguen, I. Marchesini, M. Parise, C. Vennari, R. Lanari, and F. Guzzetti
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 1835–1841, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-1835-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-1835-2014, 2014
D. Stroppiana, M. Pepe, M. Boschetti, A. Crema, G. Candiani, D. Giordan, M. Baldo, P. Allasia, and L. Monopoli
Int. Arch. Photogramm. Remote Sens. Spatial Inf. Sci., XLII-2-W13, 619–624, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-archives-XLII-2-W13-619-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-archives-XLII-2-W13-619-2019, 2019
Michele Santangelo, Massimiliano Alvioli, Marco Baldo, Mauro Cardinali, Daniele Giordan, Fausto Guzzetti, Ivan Marchesini, and Paola Reichenbach
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 325–335, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-325-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-325-2019, 2019
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The paper discusses the use of rockfall modelling software and photogrammetry applied to images acquired by RPAS to provide support to civil protection agencies during emergency response. The paper focuses on a procedure that was applied to define the residual rockfall risk for a road that was hit by an earthquake-triggered rockfall that occurred during the seismic sequence that hit central Italy on 24 August 2016. Road reopening conditions were decided based on the results of this study.
Andrea Manconi, Velio Coviello, Maud Galletti, and Reto Seifert
Earth Surf. Dynam., 6, 1219–1227, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-6-1219-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-6-1219-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
We evaluated the performance of the low-cost seismic Raspberry Shake (RS) sensors to identify and monitor rockfall activity in alpine environments. The sensors have been tested for a 1-year period in a high alpine environment, recording numerous rock failure events as well as local and distant earthquakes. This study demonstrates that the RS instruments provide a good option to build low seismic monitoring networks to monitor different kinds of geophysical phenomena.
Daniele Giordan, Yuichi S. Hayakawa, Francesco Nex, and Paolo Tarolli
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 3085–3087, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-3085-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-3085-2018, 2018
Short summary
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In the special issue
The use of remotely piloted aircraft systems (RPAS) in monitoring applications and management of natural hazardswe propose a collection of papers that provide a critical description of the state of the art in the use of RPAS for different scenarios. In particular, the sequence of papers can be considered an exhaustive representation of the state of the art of the methodologies and approaches applied to the study and management of natural hazards.
Daniele Giordan, Davide Notti, Alfredo Villa, Francesco Zucca, Fabiana Calò, Antonio Pepe, Furio Dutto, Paolo Pari, Marco Baldo, and Paolo Allasia
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 1493–1516, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-1493-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-1493-2018, 2018
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We present a multiscale and multi-sensor methodology for flood mapping using free or low-cost data. We first mapped flooded areas at basin scale using free satellite data using both SAR and multispectral sensors. At local scale we refine mapping using very high-resolution images from Remotely Piloted Aerial System and terrestrial car camera, then we used these data to create 3-D model with structure from motion (SfM). All these data allowed creating accurate flooded area and water depth maps.
Daniele Giordan, Yuichi Hayakawa, Francesco Nex, Fabio Remondino, and Paolo Tarolli
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 1079–1096, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-1079-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-1079-2018, 2018
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Remotely piloted aerial systems can acquire on-demand ultra-high-resolution images that can be used for the identification of active processes like landslides or volcanic activities but also for the definition of effects of earthquakes, wildfires and floods. In this paper, we present a review of published literature that describes experimental methodologies developed for the study and monitoring of natural hazards.
Federica Fiorucci, Daniele Giordan, Michele Santangelo, Furio Dutto, Mauro Rossi, and Fausto Guzzetti
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 405–417, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-405-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-405-2018, 2018
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This paper describes the criteria for the optimal selection of remote sensing images to map event landslides, discussing the ability of monoscopic and stereoscopic VHR satellite images and ultra-high-resolution UAV images to resolve the landslide photographical and morphological signatures. The findings can be useful to decide on the optimal imagery and technique to be used when planning the production of a landslide inventory map.
D. Giordan, A. Manconi, P. Allasia, and D. Bertolo
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 2009–2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-2009-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-2009-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
Straightforward communication of monitoring results is of major importance in emergency scenarios relevant to large slope instabilities. Here we describe the communication strategy developed for the Mont de La Saxe case study, a large rockslide threatening La Palud and Entrèves hamlets in the Courmayeur municipality (Aosta Valley, Italy).
D. Giordan, A. Manconi, A. Facello, M. Baldo, F. dell'Anese, P. Allasia, and F. Dutto
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 163–169, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-163-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-163-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
In recent years, the use of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) in civilian/commercial contexts is becoming increasingly common, also for the applications concerning the anthropic and natural disasters. In this paper, we present the first results of a research project aimed at defining a possible methodology for the use of micro-UAVs in emergency scenarios relevant to rockfall phenomena.
A. Manconi, F. Casu, F. Ardizzone, M. Bonano, M. Cardinali, C. De Luca, E. Gueguen, I. Marchesini, M. Parise, C. Vennari, R. Lanari, and F. Guzzetti
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 1835–1841, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-1835-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-1835-2014, 2014
Related subject area
Landslides and Debris Flows Hazards
Timing, drivers and impacts of the historic Masiere di Vedana rock avalanche (Belluno Dolomites, NE Italy)
Sensitivity and identifiability of rheological parameters in debris flow modeling
Assessing the annual risk of vehicles being hit by a rainfall-induced landslide: a case study on Kennedy Road in Wan Chai, Hong Kong
Topographic uncertainty quantification for flow-like landslide models via stochastic simulations
Geo-climatic hazards in the eastern subtropical Andes: distribution, climate drivers and trends
A multivariate statistical method for susceptibility analysis of debris flow in southwestern China
Analysis of the instability conditions and failure mode of a special type of translational landslide using long-term monitoring data: a case study of the Wobaoshi landslide (in Bazhong, China)
Classification and susceptibility assessment of debris flow based on a semi-quantitative method combination of the fuzzy C-means algorithm, factor analysis and efficacy coefficient
Erosion after an extreme storm event in an arid fluvial system of the southern Atacama Desert: an assessment of the magnitude, return time, and conditioning factors of erosion and debris flow generation
Rainfall and rockfalls in the Canary Islands: assessing a seasonal link
Probabilistic landslide susceptibility analysis in tropical mountainous terrain using the physically based r.slope.stability model
Three-dimensional numerical simulation of mud flow from a tailing dam failure across complex terrain
Hidden Hazards: the conditions that potentially enabled the mudflow disaster at Villa Santa Lucía in Chilean Patagonia
An improved method of Newmark analysis for mapping hazards of coseismic landslides
Landslide hazard probability and risk assessment at the community level: a case of western Hubei, China
Back calculation of the 2017 Piz Cengalo–Bondo landslide cascade with r.avaflow: what we can do and what we can learn
Dynamic path-dependent landslide susceptibility modelling
From examination of natural events to a proposal for risk mitigation of lahars by a cellular-automata methodology: a case study for Vascún valley, Ecuador
Brief communication: Post-wildfire rockfall risk in the eastern Alps
A new approach to mapping landslide hazards: a probabilistic integration of empirical and physically based models in the North Cascades of Washington, USA
Numerical modeling using an elastoplastic-adhesive discrete element code for simulating hillslope debris flows and calibration against field experiments
Simulation of fragmental rockfalls detected using terrestrial laser scans from rock slopes in south-central British Columbia, Canada
Assessment of the physical vulnerability of buildings affected by slow-moving landslides
The influence of land use and land cover change on landslide susceptibility: a case study in Zhushan Town, Xuan'en County (Hubei, China)
Shear rate effect on the residual strength characteristics of saturated loess
GIS-based earthquake-triggered-landslide susceptibility mapping with an integrated weighted index model in Jiuzhaigou region of Sichuan Province, China
Efficacy of using radar-derived factors in landslide susceptibility analysis: case study of Koslanda, Sri Lanka
How size and trigger matter: analyzing rainfall- and earthquake-triggered landslide inventories and their causal relation in the Koshi River basin, central Himalaya
Global detection of rainfall-triggered landslide clusters
Simultaneous state–parameter estimation of rainfall-induced landslide displacement using data assimilation
A remote-sensing-based intensity–duration threshold, Faifa Mountains, Saudi Arabia
Significance of substrate soil moisture content for rockfall hazard assessment
Landslide susceptibility mapping by using a geographic information system (GIS) along the China–Pakistan Economic Corridor (Karakoram Highway), Pakistan
Probabilistic forecasting of plausible debris flows from Nevado de Colima (Mexico) using data from the Atenquique debris flow, 1955
Simple rules to minimise exposure to coseismic landslide hazard
A susceptibility-based rainfall threshold approach for landslide occurrence
Development and validation of the terrain stability model for assessing landslide instability during heavy rain infiltration
Invited perspectives: Mountain roads in Nepal at a new crossroads
Changes in ground deformation prior to and following a large urban landslide in La Paz, Bolivia, revealed by advanced InSAR
Application of the Levenburg–Marquardt back propagation neural network approach for landslide risk assessments
Effects of different land use and land cover data on the landslide susceptibility zonation of road networks
Integrated risk assessment due to slope instabilities in the roadway network of Gipuzkoa, Basque Country
Brief communication: Remotely piloted aircraft systems for rapid emergency response: road exposure to rockfall in Villanova di Accumoli (central Italy)
Laboratory and field tests and distinct element analysis of dry granular flows and segregation processes
Real-time monitoring and FEMLIP simulation of a rainfall-induced rockslide
Characteristics and influencing factors of rainfall-induced landslide and debris flow hazards in Shaanxi Province, China
Landslides near Enguri dam (Caucasus, Georgia) and possible seismotectonic effects
Study on the combined threshold for gully-type debris flow early warning
Forecasting landslide mobility using an SPH model and ring shear strength tests: a case study
Roads and landslides in Nepal: how development affects environmental risk
Sandro Rossato, Susan Ivy-Ochs, Silvana Martin, Alfio Viganò, Christof Vockenhuber, Manuel Rigo, Giovanni Monegato, Marco De Zorzi, Nicola Surian, Paolo Campedel, and Paolo Mozzi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2157–2174, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2157-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2157-2020, 2020
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Rock avalanches are extremely dangerous, causing much damage worldwide. The
Masiere di Vedanais a rock avalanche deposit (9 km2, 170 Mm3) in NE Italy. We dated it back to late Roman to early Middle Ages. Identified drivers are the overall structural setting, exceptional rainfall events and seismic shakings. No exceptional event is required as a trigger. When dealing with heavily deformed bedrocks, especially in inhabited areas, the occurrence of a huge event like this must be considered.
Gerardo Zegers, Pablo A. Mendoza, Alex Garces, and Santiago Montserrat
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1919–1930, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1919-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1919-2020, 2020
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We perform a sensitivity analysis on the parameters of a numerical debris flow model and examine the effects of using post-event measurements on two creeks in Chile. Our results demonstrate the utility of sensitivity analysis in debris flow modeling and the benefits of post-event observations on parameter identifiability. This study provides guidance on the choice of uncertain parameters, contributing to more reliable simulations for debris flow risk assessments and land use planning.
Meng Lu, Jie Zhang, Lulu Zhang, and Limin Zhang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1833–1846, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1833-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1833-2020, 2020
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When analyzing the risk of landslides hitting moving vehicles, the spacing between vehicles and the vehicle types on the highway can be highly uncertain. Using a highway slope case study in Hong Kong, this paper presents a method to assess the risk of moving vehicles being hit by a rainfall-induced landslide; the method allows for the investigation of the possible number of different types of vehicles hit by the landslide and provides a new guideline for highway slope design.
Hu Zhao and Julia Kowalski
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1441–1461, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1441-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1441-2020, 2020
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We study the impact of topographic uncertainty on landslide run-out modeling using conditional and unconditional stochastic simulation. First, we propose a generic workflow and then apply it to a historic flow-like landslide. We find that topographic uncertainty can greatly affect landslide run-out modeling, depending on how well the underlying flow path is captured by topographic data. The difference between unconditional and conditional stochastic simulation is discussed in detail.
Iván Vergara, Stella M. Moreiras, Diego Araneo, and René Garreaud
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1353–1367, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1353-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1353-2020, 2020
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Geo-climatic hazards usually cause large losses of human life and economic losses. As they are very susceptible to weather, in many regions of the world these hazards are changing in frequency and magnitude due to current climate change. The purpose of this paper is to understand if, in the subtropical Andes of Argentina, these phenomena are increasing or decreasing and subsequently to understand the causes of these possible changes.
Feng Ji, Zili Dai, and Renjie Li
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1321–1334, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1321-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1321-2020, 2020
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Southwest China is a severe disaster zone in terms of debris flow. To analyze the susceptibility to debris flows in this area, this study evaluates 70 typical debris flow gullies as statistical samples and proposes an empirical model based on quantification theory. A total of 10 debris flow gullies on the upstream of the Dadu River are analyzed to verify the reliability of the proposed model. The results show that the accuracy of the statistical model is 90 %.
Yimin Liu, Chenghu Wang, Guiyun Gao, Pu Wang, Zhengyang Hou, and Qisong Jiao
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1305–1319, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1305-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1305-2020, 2020
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We considered a translational landslide exhibiting an unusual morphology, i.e., the Wobaoshi landslide. The deformation and failure mode of the plate-shaped bodies were analyzed and investigated based on numerical simulations and calculations. The monitoring data and geomechanical model proved that the accumulated water pressure in cracks causes the plate-shaped bodies to creep. Therefore, these research findings are of reference significance for the
rainfall-induced translational landslides.
Zhu Liang, Changming Wang, Songling Han, Kaleem Ullah Jan Khan, and Yiao Liu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1287–1304, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1287-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1287-2020, 2020
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The present study built a semi-quantitative classification and susceptibility assessment method for a study area, combining multiple mathematical methods and 3S technologies. The results have been verified with field investigation and other evaluation methods. Different methods have their own advantages and disadvantages, and some methods are complementary to a certain extent, so it is desirable to enhance the rationality of the application through the combination of multiple methods.
Germán Aguilar, Albert Cabré, Victor Fredes, and Bruno Villela
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1247–1265, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1247-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1247-2020, 2020
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We have calculated erosion caused by an extreme storm in the Atacama Desert. Erosion distribution depends on the ability of catchments to store sediments in stream networks between storms and generate debris flows during the storm. The order of magnitude of erosion is the same as the erosion rates calculated over the long term, so these storms have a relevant influence on the evolution of these arid fluvial systems.
Massimo Melillo, Stefano Luigi Gariano, Silvia Peruccacci, Roberto Sarro, Rosa Marìa Mateos, and Maria Teresa Brunetti
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2020-111, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2020-111, 2020
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
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In Canary Islands, a link between rainfall and rockfall occurrence is found for most of the year, except for the warm season. Empirical rainfall thresholds for rockfalls are first proposed for Gran Canaria and Tenerife and the dependence of the thresholds on the mean annual rainfall is discussed. The use of thresholds in early warning system might contribute to mitigate the rockfall hazard in the archipelago and reduce the associated risk.
Johnnatan Palacio Cordoba, Martin Mergili, and Edier Aristizábal
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 815–829, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-815-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-815-2020, 2020
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Landslides triggered by rainfall are very common phenomena in complex tropical environments such as the Colombian Andes. In this work, we perform probabilistic analyses with r.slope.stability for landslide susceptibility analysis. We test the model in the La Arenosa catchment, northern Colombian Andes. The results are compared to those yielded with the corresponding deterministic analyses and with other physically based models applied in the same catchment.
Dayu Yu, Liyu Tang, and Chongcheng Chen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 727–741, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-727-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-727-2020, 2020
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In recent years, dam-break accidents in tailing ponds have happened frequently, which has resulted in verified loss of life and ecological disaster. Simulation of a tailing dam accident in advance is useful for understanding the tailing flow characteristics and assessing the possible extension of the impact area. In this paper, a 3-D CFD approach was proposed for reasonably and quickly predicting the flow routing and impact area of mud flow from a dam failure across 3-D terrain.
Marcelo A. Somos-Valenzuela, Joaquín E. Oyarzún-Ulloa, Ivo J. Fustos-Toribio, Natalia Garrido-Urzua, and Chen Ningsheng
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2019-419, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2019-419, 2020
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
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This work presents a study of the biggest mudflow event during the last 20 years in the Patagonian Andes. We integrate in-situ geotechnical tests and numerical modeling to model the Villa Santa Lucia mudflow event. The simulations were constrained using geotechnical soil data. Our results suggest that the initial soil water content has a significant impact in comparison to the initial water content in the generation zone for volcanic soils.
Mingdong Zang, Shengwen Qi, Yu Zou, Zhuping Sheng, and Blanca S. Zamora
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 713–726, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-713-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-713-2020, 2020
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Coseismic landslides often cause loss of life and property damage. Accurately mapping hazards is very important and challenging work. This paper considers the roughness and size effect of the potential sliding surface unloading joint and then presents an improved method of Newmark analysis for mapping hazards of coseismic landslides. The approach is verified using the Mw 6.1 Ludian earthquake in 2014 and compared with a conventional Newmark analysis using area under the curve analysis.
Sheng Fu, Lixia Chen, Tsehaie Woldai, Kunlong Yin, Lei Gui, Deying Li, Juan Du, Chao Zhou, Yong Xu, and Zhipeng Lian
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 581–601, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-581-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-581-2020, 2020
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In this study, we conducted a more detailed semiquantitative landslide risk assessment at a community level and scale of 1 : 10 000. In this manner, the case study computed the loss of lives and properties for each slope. The proposed procedure proved to be more useful in complementing risk assessment on the small scale of 100 000 in western Hubei, China.
Martin Mergili, Michel Jaboyedoff, José Pullarello, and Shiva P. Pudasaini
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 505–520, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-505-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-505-2020, 2020
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Computer simulations of complex landslide processes in mountain areas are important for informing risk management but are at the same time challenging in terms of parameterization and physical and numerical model implementation. Using the tool r.avaflow, we highlight the progress and the challenges with regard to such simulations on the example of the Piz Cengalo–Bondo landslide cascade in Switzerland, which started as an initial rockslide–rockfall and finally evolved into a debris flow.
Jalal Samia, Arnaud Temme, Arnold Bregt, Jakob Wallinga, Fausto Guzzetti, and Francesca Ardizzone
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 271–285, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-271-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-271-2020, 2020
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For the Collazzone study area in Italy, we quantified how much landslides follow others using Ripley's K function, finding that susceptibility is increased within 60 m and 17 years after a previous landslide. We then calculated the increased susceptibility for every pixel and for the 17-time-slice landslide inventory. We used these as additional explanatory variables in susceptibility modelling. Model performance increased substantially with this landslide history component included.
Valeria Lupiano, Francesco Chidichimo, Guillermo Machado, Paolo Catelan, Lorena Molina, Claudia R. Calidonna, Salvatore Straface, Gino M. Crisci, and Salvatore Di Gregorio
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1–20, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1-2020, 2020
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A method for risk mitigation of secondary lahars, triggered by violent rainfall, is proposed as an alternative to methods for containment or deviation that could cause future disasters. It is based on controlled generation of small lahars as a result of collapse of frail dams by backfill, forming momentary ponds, as in natural cases. LLUNPIY verifies by simulation path, velocity, thickness, and erosion of lahars that could be produced; a complex case study for Vascún valley, Ecuador, is shown.
Sandra Melzner, Nurit Shtober-Zisu, Oded Katz, and Lea Wittenberg
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 2879–2885, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-2879-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-2879-2019, 2019
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In the eastern Alps, no work on post-wildfire rockfall activity and risk has been published so far. The present work describes a wildfire that occurred in August 2018 in a famous world heritage site in Austria. Indicators of fire severity and rockfall occurrence during and after the fire are described. Future research needs are defined in order to raise awareness about the implementation of a new research focus in the Alpine region.
Ronda Strauch, Erkan Istanbulluoglu, and Jon Riedel
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 2477–2495, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-2477-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-2477-2019, 2019
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Identifying landslide hazards is challenging but important for understanding risks to people and both built and natural resources. We use models to identify landslide hazards based on observed landslides and local site traits such as slope and on physical mechanisms such as soil moisture. Integrating both approaches improves hazard detection by accounting for processes not captured in the physically based model. Hazard maps are made for the North Cascades National Park Complex (Washington, USA).
Adel Albaba, Massimiliano Schwarz, Corinna Wendeler, Bernard Loup, and Luuk Dorren
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 2339–2358, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-2339-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-2339-2019, 2019
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We present a discrete-element-based model which is adapted and used to produce hillslope debris flows. The model parameters were calibrated using field experiments, and a very good agreement was found in terms of pressure and flow velocity. Calibration results suggested that a link might exist between the model parameters and the initial conditions of the granular material. However, to better understand this link, further investigations are required by conducting detailed lab-scale experiments.
Zac Sala, D. Jean Hutchinson, and Rob Harrap
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 2385–2404, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-2385-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-2385-2019, 2019
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The work carried out for this study is part of a collaborative research program studying the impact of ground hazards on transportation infrastructure in Canada. The focus of the paper is the testing and application of a new simulation technique which can model the movement of falling rock material. These initial tests show that our simulation technique is capable of reproducing material accumulations from rockfall events which occurred above a section of railway in British Columbia, Canada.
Qin Chen, Lixia Chen, Lei Gui, Kunlong Yin, Dhruba Pikha Shrestha, Juan Du, and Xuelian Cao
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2019-318, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2019-318, 2019
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
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Previous studies have focused on generalized vulnerability assessment from landslides or other types of slope failures, such as debris flow and rockfall. The proposed study establishes a three-step approach to investigate the physical vulnerability of buildings affected by slow-moving landslides. Herein, good consistency between the estimated building physical vulnerability and on-field damage evidence was found.
Lixia Chen, Zizheng Guo, Kunlong Yin, Dhruba Pikha Shrestha, and Shikuan Jin
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 2207–2228, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-2207-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-2207-2019, 2019
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The study aims to evaluate the influence of land use and land cover change on landslide susceptibility at a regional scale, based on the application of Geographic Information System (GIS) and remote sensing (RS) technologies. The specific objective is to answer the following question: which land cover/land use change poses the highest risk so that mitigation measures can be implemented in time?
Baoqin Lian, Jianbing Peng, and Qiangbing Huang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2019-156, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2019-156, 2019
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Yaning Yi, Zhijie Zhang, Wanchang Zhang, Qi Xu, Cai Deng, and Qilun Li
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 1973–1988, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1973-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1973-2019, 2019
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On 8 August 2017, a Mw 6.5 earthquake struck the Jiuzhaigou region of Sichuan Province, which triggered numerous landslides. In this study, a landslide susceptibility map was generated by using an integrated weighted index model. Results indicated that the integrated model has superior fitting performance and predictive capability. We expect that the generated landslide susceptibility map can serve engineers and decision makers involved in hazard mitigation.
Ahangama Kankanamge Rasika Nishamanie Ranasinghe, Ranmalee Bandara, Udeni Gnanapriya Anuruddha Puswewala, and Thilantha Lakmal Dammalage
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 1881–1893, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1881-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1881-2019, 2019
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Koslanda in Sri Lanka is on people's minds due to frequently occurring landslides as the area is made vulnerable by both climatic and geomorphological settings. Integration of radar and optical remote sensing can be used to quite satisfactorily predict landslides with complementary information at a smaller scale. Inclusion of radar-derived factors in landslide susceptibility analysis of a bivariate and multivariate nature improves the prediction of high- and very-low-susceptibility areas.
Jianqiang Zhang, Cees J. van Westen, Hakan Tanyas, Olga Mavrouli, Yonggang Ge, Samjwal Bajrachary, Deo Raj Gurung, Megh Raj Dhital, and Narendral Raj Khanal
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 1789–1805, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1789-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1789-2019, 2019
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The aim of this study is to investigate the differences in the mappable characteristics of earthquake-triggered and rainfall triggered landslides in terms of their frequency–area relationships, spatial distributions and relation with causal factors, as well as to evaluate whether separate susceptibility maps generated for specific landslide size and triggering mechanism are better than a generic landslide susceptibility assessment including all landslide sizes and triggers.
Susanne A. Benz and Philipp Blum
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 1433–1444, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1433-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1433-2019, 2019
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This study aims to identify clusters of landslide events within a global database that are triggered by the same rainfall event. Results show that 14 % of all recorded landslide events are actually part of a landslide cluster consisting of at least 10 events. However, in a more regional analysis this number ranges from 30 % for the west coast of North America to 3 % in the Himalayan region. These findings provide an improved understanding for managing landslide mitigations on a larger scale.
Jing Wang, Guigen Nie, Shengjun Gao, and Changhu Xue
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 1387–1398, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1387-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1387-2019, 2019
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It is necessary to do some prevention study of landslide hazard like the early warning and deformation prediction. This research proposes a new strategy to predict displacement of the landslide. Results confirm the accuracy and effectiveness of this method in displacement prediction, which can provide assistance in early risk assessment and landslide forecasting.
Sita Karki, Mohamed Sultan, Saleh Alsefry, Hassan Alharbi, Mustafa Kemal Emil, Racha Elkadiri, and Emad Abu Alfadail
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 1235–1249, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1235-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1235-2019, 2019
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We constructed an intensity–duration thresholding technique required to develop an early-warning system for the Faifa Mountains in Saudi Arabia. The study uses radar imagery, satellite-derived rainfall data, archival imagery, and limited field data. The study presents a significant development in the application of radar for hydrogeological and geomorphological studies as it provides better resilience towards nonoptical conditions.
Louise Mary Vick, Valerie Zimmer, Christopher White, Chris Massey, and Tim Davies
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 1105–1117, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1105-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1105-2019, 2019
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Rockfall boulders can travel long distances downslope, and it is important to predict how far fatalities can be prevented. A comparison of earthquake data from New Zealand during summer and full-scale rockfall experiments in the same soil during winter shows that during dry seasons boulders travel further downslope because the soil is harder. When using predictive tools, engineers and geologists should take soil conditions (and seasonal variations thereof) into account.
Sajid Ali, Peter Biermanns, Rashid Haider, and Klaus Reicherter
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 999–1022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-999-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-999-2019, 2019
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The Karakoram Highway (KKH) is an important physical connection between Pakistan and China. Landslides have been a major threat to its stability since its construction. After the announcement of the China–Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), KKH has had more importance. Geoscientists from research institutions in both countries are assessing landslide hazard and risk along the highway. In a PhD project, this paper will be followed by a detailed analysis of mass movements along the highway.
Andrea Bevilacqua, Abani K. Patra, Marcus I. Bursik, E. Bruce Pitman, José Luis Macías, Ricardo Saucedo, and David Hyman
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 791–820, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-791-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-791-2019, 2019
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We introduce a new prediction-oriented method for hazard assessment of volcaniclastic debris flows, based on multiple models. We apply our procedure to a case study of the 1955 Atenquique flow, using three widely used depth-averaged models. Depending on how it is looked at, the exercise provides useful information in either model selection or data inversion. Connecting inverse problems and model uncertainty represents a fundamental challenge in the future development of
multi-model solvers.
David G. Milledge, Alexander L. Densmore, Dino Bellugi, Nick J. Rosser, Jack Watt, Gen Li, and Katie J. Oven
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 837–856, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-837-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-837-2019, 2019
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Mitigating landslide risk requires information on landslide hazards on a suitable scale to inform decisions. We develop simple rules to identify landslide hazards and the probability of being hit by a landslide, then test their performance using six existing landslide inventories from recent earthquakes. We find that the best rules are "minimize your maximum look angle to the skyline" and "avoid steep (> 10˚) channels with many steep (> 40˚) areas that are upslope".
Elise Monsieurs, Olivier Dewitte, and Alain Demoulin
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 775–789, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-775-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-775-2019, 2019
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We propose in this study a fundamentally new approach for the definition of minimum rainfall required for the initiation of landslides based on satellite-derived antecedent rainfall estimates directly coupled with data on surface susceptibility for landslides. We apply our approach in the western branch of the East African Rift and provide first regional rainfall thresholds for landsliding in tropical Africa.
Alfonso Gutiérrez-Martín, Miguel Ángel Herrada, José Ignacio Yenes, and Ricardo Castedo
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 721–736, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-721-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-721-2019, 2019
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This research work of this paper completes the authors' activity in the Military Emergencies Unit of Spain in responding to the problem of slope instabilities and how to predict them in the case of heavy rains. This work completes the work of stabilization and stresses made by torrential rains in the south of Spain. The results have been satisfactory.
Karen Sudmeier-Rieux, Brian G. McAdoo, Sanjaya Devkota, Purna Chandra Lal Rajbhandari, John Howell, and Shuva Sharma
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 655–660, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-655-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-655-2019, 2019
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This article discusses how Nepal's development, landslide risk and geopolitics are intertwined as the country seeks to expand its road networks. However, rural villages adjacent to major roads have developed their own network of poorly constructed rural roads, which are likely to increase environmental and socioeconomic risks associated with roadside landslides. We base our observations on research conducted over a decade in Nepal, with reference to new research on roads and landslides.
Nicholas J. Roberts, Bernhard T. Rabus, John J. Clague, Reginald L. Hermanns, Marco-Antonio Guzmán, and Estela Minaya
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 679–696, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-679-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-679-2019, 2019
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La Paz, Bolivia, experiences frequent damaging landslides. We quantify creep before and after the city’s largest modern landslide using spaceborne InSAR. Creep of ancient landslide deposits increased in rate and extent following failure and extended into adjacent intact materials. Accelerated steady-state creep reflects complex post-failure stress redistribution. Landslide risk in La Paz, which is underlain by many large ancient landslides, may be even greater than previously thought.
Junnan Xiong, Ming Sun, Hao Zhang, Weiming Cheng, Yinghui Yang, Mingyuan Sun, Yifan Cao, and Jiyan Wang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 629–653, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-629-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-629-2019, 2019
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We want to know which areas are prone to landslides and where pipelines are more unsafe. Through a model, we determined that 33.18 % and 40.46 % of the slopes in the study are were in high-hazard and extremely high-hazard areas, respectively. The number and length of pipe segments in the highly vulnerable and extremely vulnerable areas accounted for about 12 % of the total. In general, the pipeline risk within Qingchuan and Jian'ge counties was relatively high.
Bruno M. Meneses, Susana Pereira, and Eusébio Reis
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 471–487, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-471-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-471-2019, 2019
Olga Mavrouli, Jordi Corominas, Iñaki Ibarbia, Nahikari Alonso, Ioseba Jugo, Jon Ruiz, Susana Luzuriaga, and José Antonio Navarro
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 399–419, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-399-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-399-2019, 2019
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A methodology is proposed for the quantitative risk assessment of roadways subjected to rockfalls, retaining wall failures, and slow moving landslides. It includes the calculation of the probability of occurrence of each hazard with a given level, based on an extensive collection of field data, and its association with the consequences. The latter was assessed considering the road damage repair cost for each level in terms of a fixed unit cost.
Michele Santangelo, Massimiliano Alvioli, Marco Baldo, Mauro Cardinali, Daniele Giordan, Fausto Guzzetti, Ivan Marchesini, and Paola Reichenbach
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 325–335, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-325-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-325-2019, 2019
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The paper discusses the use of rockfall modelling software and photogrammetry applied to images acquired by RPAS to provide support to civil protection agencies during emergency response. The paper focuses on a procedure that was applied to define the residual rockfall risk for a road that was hit by an earthquake-triggered rockfall that occurred during the seismic sequence that hit central Italy on 24 August 2016. Road reopening conditions were decided based on the results of this study.
Yung Ming Cheng, Wing Hong Ivan Fung, Liang Li, and Na Li
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 181–199, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-181-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-181-2019, 2019
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The work in this paper can be useful for government engineers who need to make a decision on which debris flow barrier to use and assess the consequences of debris flow. Although the experiments in this paper are relatively simple, a deeper understanding of the debris flow process can be enhanced with the results in the present study.
Zhaohua Li, Zhigang Tao, Yuanjun Jiang, Qian Lv, Felix Darve, and Manchao He
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 153–168, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-153-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-153-2019, 2019
Ke Zhang, Sheng Wang, Hongjun Bao, and Xiaomeng Zhao
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 93–105, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-93-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-93-2019, 2019
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We investigated the spatiotemporal characteristics of landslide and debris flow hazards in Shaanxi Province and quantified the relationships between the occurrence rates of the two hazards and their influencing factors, including antecedent rainfall amount, rainfall duration, rainfall intensity, terrain slope, land cover type and soil type. Rainfall amount, duration, and intensity and slope are the dominant factors controlling slope stability across this region.
Alessandro Tibaldi, Paolo Oppizzi, John Gierke, Thomas Oommen, Nino Tsereteli, and Zurab Gogoladze
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 71–91, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-71-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-71-2019, 2019
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In the framework of the NATO Science for Peace and Security Program, we have increased the knowledge on the geohazards affecting the Enguri hydroelectrical plant (Caucasus, Georgia). 2 km from the dam, active deformation (2–5 cm yr−1) affects a slope facing the water reservoir. Our field, seismological and numerical analyses show that the worst scenario is represented by seismic shaking with a local peak ground acceleration capable of generating an unstable rock volume of up to 48 ± 12 × 106 m3.
Jian Huang, Theodoor Wouterus Johannes van Asch, Changming Wang, and Qiao Li
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 41–51, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-41-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-41-2019, 2019
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Wenjia gully is a typical gully-type debris flow, which has a large-scale catchment and great hazard risk to the local people. Based on the monitoring data for almost 6 years until now, the characteristics of debris-flow-triggering parameters (pore pressure and rainfall) have been analyzed, especially the relationship with debris flow occurrences. Then, a combined threshold has been presented and tested in order to provide a method for safeguarding the population in the region.
Miao Yu, Yu Huang, Wenbin Deng, and Hualin Cheng
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 3343–3353, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-3343-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-3343-2018, 2018
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Flow-like landslides, such as flow slides and debris avalanches, have caused serious infrastructure damage and casualties for centuries. Effective numerical simulation incorporating accurate soil mechanical parameters is essential for predicting post-failure landslide mobility. In this study, smoothed particle hydrodynamics (SPH) incorporating soil ring shear test results were used to forecast the long-runout mobility for a landslide on an unstable slope in China.
Brian G. McAdoo, Michelle Quak, Kaushal R. Gnyawali, Basanta R. Adhikari, Sanjaya Devkota, Purna Lal Rajbhandari, and Karen Sudmeier-Rieux
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 3203–3210, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-3203-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-3203-2018, 2018
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Road development in Nepal promises to improve access to markets, education and healthcare, but not without hazardous consequences. Using GIS maps of monsoon-triggered landslides, we show that rural roads are responsible for doubling the number of landslides in one mountainous district. Engineers are seeking sustainable and affordable eco-solutions to help stabilize these roads in order to prevent further loss of life and property as Nepal approaches this next phase in its development.
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