Research article
28 Jul 2014
Research article | 28 Jul 2014
An interdisciplinary approach to volcanic risk reduction under conditions of uncertainty: a case study of Tristan da Cunha
A. Hicks et al.
Related subject area
Anthropogenic climate change and glacier lake outburst flood risk: local and global drivers and responsibilities for the case of lake Palcacocha, Peru
Christian Huggel, Mark Carey, Adam Emmer, Holger Frey, Noah Walker-Crawford, and Ivo Wallimann-Helmer
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2175–2193, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2175-2020,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2175-2020, 2020
Short summary
Flood vulnerability and risk assessment of urban traditional buildings in a heritage district of Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia
Dina D'Ayala, Kai Wang, Yuan Yan, Helen Smith, Ashleigh Massam, Valeriya Filipova, and Joy Jacqueline Pereira
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2221–2241, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2221-2020,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2221-2020, 2020
Short summary
Induced seismicity risk analysis of the hydraulic stimulation of a geothermal well on Geldinganes, Iceland
Marco Broccardo, Arnaud Mignan, Francesco Grigoli, Dimitrios Karvounis, Antonio Pio Rinaldi, Laurentiu Danciu, Hannes Hofmann, Claus Milkereit, Torsten Dahm, Günter Zimmermann, Vala Hjörleifsdóttir, and Stefan Wiemer
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1573–1593, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1573-2020,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1573-2020, 2020
Short summary
A multi-hazard risk prioritisation framework for cultural heritage assets
Giacomo Sevieri, Carmine Galasso, Dina D'Ayala, Richard De Jesus, Andres Oreta, Mary Earl Daryl A. Grio, and Rhodella Ibabao
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1391–1414, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1391-2020,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1391-2020, 2020
Short summary
Modeling of E. coli distribution for hazard assessment of bathing waters affected by combined sewer overflows
Luca Locatelli, Beniamino Russo, Alejandro Acero Oliete, Juan Carlos Sánchez Catalán, Eduardo Martínez-Gomariz, and Montse Martínez
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1219–1232, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1219-2020,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1219-2020, 2020
Short summary
Monitoring of the reconstruction process in a high mountainous area affected by a major earthquake and subsequent hazards
Chenxiao Tang, Xinlei Liu, Yinghua Cai, Cees Van Westen, Yu Yang, Hai Tang, Chengzhang Yang, and Chuan Tang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1163–1186, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1163-2020,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1163-2020, 2020
Short summary
Review article: Natural hazard risk assessments at the global scale
Philip J. Ward, Veit Blauhut, Nadia Bloemendaal, James E. Daniell, Marleen C. de Ruiter, Melanie J. Duncan, Robert Emberson, Susanna F. Jenkins, Dalia Kirschbaum, Michael Kunz, Susanna Mohr, Sanne Muis, Graeme A. Riddell, Andreas Schäfer, Thomas Stanley, Ted I. E. Veldkamp, and Hessel C. Winsemius
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1069–1096, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1069-2020,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1069-2020, 2020
Short summary
Global-scale benefit–cost analysis of coastal flood adaptation to different flood risk drivers using structural measures
Timothy Tiggeloven, Hans de Moel, Hessel C. Winsemius, Dirk Eilander, Gilles Erkens, Eskedar Gebremedhin, Andres Diaz Loaiza, Samantha Kuzma, Tianyi Luo, Charles Iceland, Arno Bouwman, Jolien van Huijstee, Willem Ligtvoet, and Philip J. Ward
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1025–1044, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1025-2020,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1025-2020, 2020
Short summary
Linking drought indices to impacts to support drought risk assessment in Liaoning province, China
Yaxu Wang, Juan Lv, Jamie Hannaford, Yicheng Wang, Hongquan Sun, Lucy J. Barker, Miaomiao Ma, Zhicheng Su, and Michael Eastman
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 889–906, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-889-2020,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-889-2020, 2020
Short summary
Examining the sustainability and development challenge in agricultural-forest frontiers of the Amazon Basin through the eyes of locals
Irene Blanco-Gutiérrez, Rhys Manners, Consuelo Varela-Ortega, Ana M. Tarquis, Lucieta G. Martorano, and Marisol Toledo
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 797–813, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-797-2020,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-797-2020, 2020
Short summary
Global-scale drought risk assessment for agricultural systems
Isabel Meza, Stefan Siebert, Petra Döll, Jürgen Kusche, Claudia Herbert, Ehsan Eyshi Rezaei, Hamideh Nouri, Helena Gerdener, Eklavyya Popat, Janna Frischen, Gustavo Naumann, Jürgen V. Vogt, Yvonne Walz, Zita Sebesvari, and Michael Hagenlocher
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 695–712, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-695-2020,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-695-2020, 2020
Short summary
Assessing transportation vulnerability to tsunamis: utilising post-event field data from the 2011 Tōhoku tsunami, Japan, and the 2015 Illapel tsunami, Chile
James H. Williams, Thomas M. Wilson, Nick Horspool, Ryan Paulik, Liam Wotherspoon, Emily M. Lane, and Matthew W. Hughes
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 451–470, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-451-2020,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-451-2020, 2020
Short summary
A flood-risk-oriented, dynamic protection motivation framework to explain risk reduction behaviours
Philippe Weyrich, Elena Mondino, Marco Borga, Giuliano Di Baldassarre, Anthony Patt, and Anna Scolobig
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 287–298, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-287-2020,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-287-2020, 2020
Nature-based solutions for hydro-meteorological risk reduction: a state-of-the-art review of the research area
Laddaporn Ruangpan, Zoran Vojinovic, Silvana Di Sabatino, Laura Sandra Leo, Vittoria Capobianco, Amy M. P. Oen, Michael E. McClain, and Elena Lopez-Gunn
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 243–270, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-243-2020,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-243-2020, 2020
Short summary
Multi-coverage optimal location model for emergency medical service (EMS) facilities under various disaster scenarios: a case study of urban fluvial floods in the Minhang district of Shanghai, China
Yuhan Yang, Jie Yin, Mingwu Ye, Dunxian She, and Jia Yu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 181–195, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-181-2020,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-181-2020, 2020
Short summary
Impact database application for natural and technological risk management
Nina Frolova, Valery Larionov, Jean Bonnin, Sergey Suchshev, Alexander Ugarov, and Nataliya Malaeva
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 95–106, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-95-2020,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-95-2020, 2020
Short summary
Anomalies of dwellers' collective geotagged behaviors in response to rainstorms: a case study of eight cities in China using smartphone location data
Jiawei Yi, Yunyan Du, Fuyuan Liang, Tao Pei, Ting Ma, and Chenghu Zhou
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 2169–2182, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-2169-2019,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-2169-2019, 2019
Short summary
Temporal variability of social vulnerability to storm surges in Shenzhen, China
Huaming Yu, Yuhang Shen, Ryan M. Kelly, Xin Qi, Kejian Wu, Songlin Li, Haiqing Yu, and Xianwen Bao
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2019-293,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2019-293, 2019
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Load-resistance analysis: an alternative approach to tsunami damage assessment applied to the 2011 Great East Japan tsunami
Anawat Suppasri, Kwanchai Pakoksung, Ingrid Charvet, Constance Ting Chua, Noriyuki Takahashi, Teraphan Ornthammarath, Panon Latcharote, Natt Leelawat, and Fumihiko Imamura
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 1807–1822, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1807-2019,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1807-2019, 2019
Short summary
Fine-scale assessment of cross-boundary wildfire events in the western United States
Palaiologos Palaiologou, Alan A. Ager, Cody R. Evers, Max Nielsen-Pincus, Michelle A. Day, and Haiganoush K. Preisler
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 1755–1777, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1755-2019,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1755-2019, 2019
Short summary
Enhancement of large-scale flood risk assessments using building-material-based vulnerability curves for an object-based approach in urban and rural areas
Johanna Englhardt, Hans de Moel, Charles K. Huyck, Marleen C. de Ruiter, Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts, and Philip J. Ward
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 1703–1722, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1703-2019,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1703-2019, 2019
Short summary
Climate risks, digital media, and big data: following communication trails to investigate urban communities' resilience
Rosa Vicari, Ioulia Tchiguirinskaia, Bruno Tisserand, and Daniel Schertzer
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 1485–1498, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1485-2019,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1485-2019, 2019
Short summary
Cited articles
Aspinall, W. and Cooke, R. M: Expert Judgement and the Montserrat Volcano eruption, in: Proceedings of the 4th International Conference on Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management PSAM4, Vol. 3, 13–18 September 1998, New York City, USA, 2113–2118, 1998.
Baker, P. E., Gass, I. G., Harris, P. G., and Le Maitre, R. W: The volcanological report of the Royal Society expedition to Tristan da Cunha, 1962, Philos. T. Roy. Soc. Lond. A, 256, 439–575, 1964.
Barclay, J., Haynes, K., Mitchell, T., Solana, C., Teeuw, R., Darnell, A., Crosweller, S., Cole, P., Pyle, D., Lowe, C., Fearnley, C., and Kelman, I: Framing volcanic risk communication within disaster risk reduction: finding ways for the social and physical sciences to work together, in: Communicating Environmental Geoscience, Vol. 305, edited by: Liverman, D., Pereira, C., and Marker, B., Special Publications, Geological Society, London, 163–177, 2008.
Brander, J: Tristan da Cunha, 1506–1902, G. Allen & Unwin Ltd, London, 1940.
Cash, D., Clark, W. C., Alcock, F., Dickson, N. M., Eckley, N., and Jäger, J.: Salience, Credibility, Legitimacy and Boundaries: Linking Research, Assessment and Decision Making, KSG Working Papers Series RWP02-046, Harvard Kennedy School of Government, Cambridge, Massachussetts, https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.372280, 2002.
Chester, D. K.: Theology and disaster studies: The need for dialogue, J. Volcanol. Geoth. Res., 146, 319–328, 2005.
Chester, D. K., Duncan, A. M., and Dibben, C. J. L.: The importance of religion in shaping volcanic risk perception in Italy, with special reference to Vesuvius and Etna, J. Volcanol. Geoth. Res., 172, 216–228, 2008.
Coleman, J: Foundations of Social Theory, Harvard University Press, Cambridge, 1990.
Cooke, R. M.: Experts in uncertainty: opinion and subjective probability in science, Oxford University Press, New York, 1991.
Cooke, R. M.: Special issue on expert judgment, Reliabil. Eng. Syst. Safe., 93, 655–656, 2008.
Cooke, R. M. and Goosens, L. J. H.: Procedures Guide for Structured Expert Judgment, Technical report EUR 18820 EN, European Commission, Directorate-General for Research, Brussels, Belgium, 1999.
Cronin, S. J., Gaylord, D. R., Charley, D., Alloway, B. V., Wallez, S., and Esau, J. W: Participatory methods of incorporating scientific with traditional knowledge for volcanic hazard management on Ambae Island, Vanuatu, Bull. Volcanol., 66, 652–668, 2004.
Donovan, K. H. M.: Cultural responses to volcanic hazards on Mt Merapi, Indonesia, Ph.D. Thesis, University of Plymouth, Plymouth, 2010.
Dunkley, P.: Volcanic hazard assessment of Tristan da Cunha, British Geological Survey Commissioned Report CR/02/146N, British Geological Survey, Keyworth, Nottingham, 2002.
Gabarro, J.J: The development of trust, influence and expectations, in: Interpersonal behaviors: Communication and understanding in relationships, edited by: Athos, A. G. and Gabarro, J. J., Prentice Hall, Englewood Cliffs, NJ, 290–303, 1978.
Gaillard, J.-C.: Resilience of traditional societies in facing natural hazards, Disaster Prevent. Manage., 16, 522–544, 2007.
Gaillard, J.-C.: Alternative paradigms of volcanic risk perception: The case of Mt. Pinatubo in the 786 Philippines, J. Volcanol. Geoth. Res., 172, 315–328, 2008.
Gregg, C. E., Houghton, B. F., Johnston, D. M., Paton, D., and Swanson, D. A.: The perception of volcanic risk in Kona communities from Mauna Loa and Hualalai volcanoes, Hawaii, J. Volcanol. Geoth. Res., 130, 179–196, 2004.
Hards, V: Assessment of volcanic activity in the wake of the seismic episode of 29/30 July 2004 on Tristan da Cunha, South Atlantic Ocean, British Geological Survey Commissioned Report CR/04/235, British Geological Survey, Keyworth, Nottingham, 2004.
Hicks, A., Barclay, J., Mark, D. F., and Loughlin, S.: Tristan da Cunha: Constraining eruptive behavior using the
40Ar/
39Ar dating technique, Geology, 40, 723–726, https://doi.org/10.1130/G33059.1, 2012.
Holling, C.: Understanding the complexity of economic, ecological, and social systems, Ecosystems, 4, 390–405, 2001.
Howorth, R: Islands, Isolation and Vulnerability, in: International Strategy for Disaster Reduction: Leicester and Geneva, edited by: Risk, K., Tudor Rose Publications and the International Strategy for Disaster Reduction, Leicester, Geneva, 224–227, 2005.
Johnson, D. M.: The role of multidisciplinary research and collaboration for improving the resilience of communities to volcanic risk, J. Appl. Volcanol., 1, 1, https://doi.org/10.1186/2191-5040-1-1, 2012.
Kelman, I.: Sustainable Livelihoods from Natural Heritage on Islands, Island Stud. J., 2, 101–114, 2007.
Kelman, I. and Mather, T. A.: Living with volcanoes: The sustainable livelihoods approach for volcano-related opportunities, J. Volcanol. Geoth. Res., 172, 189–198, 2008.
Lanphere, M., Champion, D., Melluso, L., Morra, V., Perrotta, A., Scarpati, C., Tedesco, D., and Calvert, A.:
40Ar/
39Ar ages of the AD 79 eruption of Vesuvius, Italy, Bull. Volcanol., 69, 259–263, 2007.
Le Roex, A. P., Cliff, R. A., and Adair, B. J. I.: Tristan da Cunha, South Atlantic: Geochemistry and Petrogenesis of a Basanite-Phonolite Lava Series, J. Petrol., 31, 779–812, 1990.
Lewis, J.: Development in Disaster-prone Places, Intermediate Technology Publication, Studies of Vulnerability, London, 1999.
Lewis, J.: An Island Characteristic. Derivative vulnerabilities to indigenous and exogenous hazards, Shima, 3, 3–15, 2009.
Mercer, J., Dominey-Howes, D., Kelman, I., and Lloyd, K.: The potential for combining indigenous and western knowledge in reducing vulnerability to environmental hazards in small island developing states, Environ. Hazards, 7, 245–256, 2007.
Morgan, M. G., Fischhoff, B., Bostrum, A., and Atman, C. J.: Risk Communication – A Mental Models Approach, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 2002.
Munch, P. A.: Culture and superculture in a displaced community: Tristan da Cunha, Ethnology, 3, 369, 1964.
Munch, P. A.: Economic Development and Conflicting Values: A Social Experiment in Tristan da Cunha, Am. Anthropol., 72, 1300–1318, 1970.
Munch, P. A.: Crisis in Utopia: The Ordeal of Tristan da Cunha, New York, Thomas Y. Crowell Company, New York, 1971.
Murphy, B.: Locating social capital in resilient community-level emergency management, Nat. Hazards, 41, 297–315, 2007.
O'Mongain, A. M., Baptie, B. J., Booth, D. C., Flower, S. M., Ford, G. D., Galloway, D. D., Ottemoller, L., and Simpson, B. A.: Seismic activity in the region of Tristan da Cunha, October 2004–February 2005, British Geological Survey Commissioned Report cr/05/052, British Geological Survey, Keyworth, Nottingham, 43 pp., 2005.
Paton, D., Smith, L., Daly, M., and Johnston, D.: Risk perception and volcanic hazard mitigation: Individual and social perspectives, J. Volcanol. Geoth. Res., 172, 179–188, 2008.
Pelling, M. and High, C.: Understanding adaptation: What can social capital offer assessments of adaptive capacity?, Global Environ. Change Pt. A, 15, 308–319, 2005.
Pelling, M. and Uitto, J. I.: Small island developing states: natural disaster vulnerability and global change, Global Environ. Change Pt. B, 3, 49–62, 2001.
Pidgeon, N. and Fischhoff, B.: The role of social and decision sciences in communicating uncertain climate risks, Nat. Clim. Change, 1, 35–41, 2011.
Putnam, R.: Making Democracy Work: Civic Traditions in modern Italy, Princeton University Press, Princeton, 1993.
Putnam, R.: Bowling Alone: The Collapse and Revival of American Community, Simon & Schuster, New York, 2000.
Reagan, M. K., Turner, S., Legg, M., Sims, K. W. W., and Hards, V. L.:
238U- and
232Th-decay series constraints on the timescales of crystal fractionation to produce the phonolite erupted in 2004 near Tristan da Cunha, South Atlantic Ocean, Geochim. Cosmochim. Acta, 72, 4367–4378, 2008.
Renne, P. R., Sharp, W. D., Deino, A. L., Orsi, G., and Civetta, L.:
40Ar/
39Ar Dating into the Historical Realm: Calibration Against Pliny the Younger, Science, 277, 1279–1280, 1997.
Rubin, O. and Rossing, T.: National and local vulnerability to climate-related disasters in Latin America: The role of social asset-based adaptation, B. Lat. Am. Res., 31, 19–35, 2012.
Sleep, N.: Hotspots and mantle plumes: some phenomenology, J. Geophys. Res., 95, 6715–6736, 1990.
Stirling, A.: Risk, uncertainty and precaution: some instrumental implications from the social sciences, in: Negotiating Environmental Change, New Perspectives from Social Science, edited by: Berkhout, F., Leach, M., and Scoones, I., Edward Elgar, Cheltenham, 33–76, 2003.
Stirling, A.: Keep it complex: Nature, 468, 1029–1031, 2010.
Twigg, J.: Sustainable livelihoods and vulnerability to disasters, Disaster Management Working Paper, Benfield Greig Hazard Research Centre, University College London, London, 2001.
Wolcott, H. F.: Ethnography: a way of seeing, AltaMira Press, Lanham, p. 335, 1999.
Zamel, N., McClean, P. A., Sandell, P. R., Siminovitch, K. A., and Slutsky, A. S.: Asthma on Tristan da Cunha: looking for the genetic link. The University of Toronto Genetics of Asthma Research Group, Am. J. Respir. Crit. Care Med., 153, 1902–1906, 1996.