Articles | Volume 24, issue 4
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1401-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Special issue:
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1401-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
24 Apr 2024
Research article |
| 24 Apr 2024
| 24 Apr 2024
Scoring and ranking probabilistic seismic hazard models: an application based on macroseismic intensity data
Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, 56125 Pisa, Italy
Francesco Visini
Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, 56125 Pisa, Italy
Andrea Rovida
Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, 20133 Milan, Italy
Warner Marzocchi
Department of Earth Sciences, Environment and Resources, University of Naples Federico II, 80126 Naples, Italy
Carlo Meletti
Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, 56125 Pisa, Italy
Related authors
Andrea Antonucci, Andrea Rovida, Vera D'Amico, and Dario Albarello
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1805–1816, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1805-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1805-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The earthquake effects undocumented at 228 Italian localities were calculated through a probabilistic approach starting from the values obtained through the use of an intensity prediction equation, taking into account the intensity data documented at close localities for a given earthquake. The results showed some geographical dependencies and correlations with the intensity levels investigated.
Francesco Visini, Carlo Meletti, Andrea Rovida, Vera D'Amico, Bruno Pace, and Silvia Pondrelli
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2807–2827, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2807-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2807-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
As new data are collected, seismic hazard models can be updated and improved. In the framework of a project aimed to update the Italian seismic hazard model, we proposed a model based on the definition and parametrization of area sources. Using geological data, seismicity and other geophysical constraints, we delineated three-dimensional boundaries and activity rates of a seismotectonic zoning and explored the epistemic uncertainty by means of a logic-tree approach.
Andrea Antonucci, Andrea Rovida, Vera D'Amico, and Dario Albarello
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2299–2311, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2299-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2299-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We present a probabilistic approach for integrating incomplete intensity distributions by means of the Bayesian combination of estimates provided by intensity prediction equations (IPEs) and data documented at nearby localities, accounting for the relevant uncertainties. The performance of the proposed methodology is tested at 28 Italian localities with long and rich seismic histories and for the strong 1980 and 2009 earthquakes in Italy. An application of this approach is also illustrated.
Silvia Pondrelli, Francesco Visini, Andrea Rovida, Vera D'Amico, Bruno Pace, and Carlo Meletti
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 3577–3592, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-3577-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-3577-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We used 100 years of seismicity in Italy to predict the hypothetical tectonic style of future earthquakes, with the purpose of using this information in a new seismic hazard model. To squeeze all possible information out of the available data, we created a chain of criteria to be applied in the input and output selection processes. The result is a list of cases from very clear ones, e.g., extensional tectonics in the central Apennines, to completely random tectonics for future seismic events.
Octavi Gómez-Novell, Francesco Visini, José A. Álvarez-Gómez, Bruno Pace, and Julián García-Mayordomo
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.22541/essoar.174973163.39901434/v2, https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.22541/essoar.174973163.39901434/v2, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences (NHESS).
Short summary
Short summary
Earthquake surface ruptures are a hazard for infrastructure and life that requires proper assessment. We use a physics-based earthquake cycle simulator to derive fault displacement hazard statistics in a test fault system and their dependence to fault geometry. Our results show that more complex fault geometries increase surface rupture probabilities and might improve the agreement with observations. Earthquake cycle simulators are thus a promising tool for fault displacement hazard analyses.
Matteo Trolese, Alessandro Tadini, Laura Pieretti, Damiano Biagini, Spina Cianetti, Simone Colucci, Matteo Cerminara, Claudia D'Oriano, Chiara Montagna, Michele D'Ambrosio, Raffaello Pegna, Giuseppe Re, Francesco Sanseverino, Carlo Giunchi, Carlo Meletti, and Tomaso Esposti Ongaro
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3026, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3026, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Geoscience Communication (GC).
Short summary
Short summary
This study describes two hands-on outreach events: an interactive lesson for high-school students during European Researchers’ Night and a tsunami experiment at Lucca Comics & Games. Surveys showed both groups enjoyed the activities, boosted their grasp of geoscience ideas and grew more positive about science. The work emphasizes the effectiveness of quantitative experiment demonstrations and the need to adapt them to the audience, time available and clear educator coordination.
Andrea Rovida, Mario Locati, Andrea Antonucci, and Romano Camassi
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 17, 3109–3124, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-3109-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-3109-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
ASMI, the Italian Archive of Historical Earthquake Data, is an online data collection that currently provides seismological data on earthquakes that occurred in and around Italy from from 461 BCE to 2025 CE. Based on more than 450 data sources, ASMI's web portal distributes earthquake parameters and macroseismic intensity data, along with the bibliographical reference of the data source and – if possible – the data source itself, through queries by both earthquake and data source.
Laurentiu Danciu, Domenico Giardini, Graeme Weatherill, Roberto Basili, Shyam Nandan, Andrea Rovida, Céline Beauval, Pierre-Yves Bard, Marco Pagani, Celso G. Reyes, Karin Sesetyan, Susana Vilanova, Fabrice Cotton, and Stefan Wiemer
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3049–3073, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3049-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3049-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The 2020 European Seismic Hazard Model (ESHM20) is the latest seismic hazard assessment update for the Euro-Mediterranean region. This state-of-the-art model delivers a broad range of hazard results, including hazard curves, maps, and uniform hazard spectra. ESHM20 provides two hazard maps as informative references in the next update of the European Seismic Design Code (CEN EC8), and it also provides a key input to the first earthquake risk model for Europe.
Octavi Gómez-Novell, Bruno Pace, Francesco Visini, Joanna Faure Walker, and Oona Scotti
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 7339–7355, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-7339-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-7339-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Knowing the rate at which earthquakes happen along active faults is crucial to characterize the hazard that they pose. We present an approach (Paleoseismic EArthquake CHronologies, PEACH) to correlate and compute seismic histories using paleoseismic data, a type of data that characterizes past seismic activity from the geological record. Our approach reduces the uncertainties of the seismic histories and overall can improve the knowledge on fault rupture behavior for the seismic hazard.
John Douglas, Helen Crowley, Vitor Silva, Warner Marzocchi, Laurentiu Danciu, and Rui Pinho
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-991, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-991, 2023
Preprint withdrawn
Short summary
Short summary
Estimates of the earthquake ground motions expected during the lifetime of a building or the length of an insurance policy are frequently calculated for locations around the world. Estimates for the same location from different studies can show large differences. These differences affect engineering, financial and risk management decisions. We apply various approaches to understand when such differences have an impact on such decisions and when they are expected because data are limited.
Domenico Giaquinto, Warner Marzocchi, and Jürgen Kurths
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 30, 167–181, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-30-167-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-30-167-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Despite being among the most severe climate extremes, it is still challenging to assess droughts’ features for specific regions. In this paper we study meteorological droughts in Europe using concepts derived from climate network theory. By exploring the synchronization in droughts occurrences across the continent we unveil regional clusters which are individually examined to identify droughts’ geographical propagation and source–sink systems, which could potentially support droughts’ forecast.
Andrea Antonucci, Andrea Rovida, Vera D'Amico, and Dario Albarello
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1805–1816, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1805-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1805-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The earthquake effects undocumented at 228 Italian localities were calculated through a probabilistic approach starting from the values obtained through the use of an intensity prediction equation, taking into account the intensity data documented at close localities for a given earthquake. The results showed some geographical dependencies and correlations with the intensity levels investigated.
Andrea Rovida, Andrea Antonucci, and Mario Locati
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 5213–5231, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-5213-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-5213-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
EPICA is the 1000–1899 catalogue compiled for the European Seismic Hazard Model 2020 and contains 5703 earthquakes with Mw ≥ 4.0. It relies on the data of the European Archive of Historical Earthquake Data (AHEAD), both macroseismic intensities from historical seismological studies and parameters from regional catalogues. For each earthquake, the most representative datasets were selected and processed in order to derive harmonised parameters, both from intensity data and parametric catalogues.
Francesco Visini, Carlo Meletti, Andrea Rovida, Vera D'Amico, Bruno Pace, and Silvia Pondrelli
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2807–2827, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2807-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2807-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
As new data are collected, seismic hazard models can be updated and improved. In the framework of a project aimed to update the Italian seismic hazard model, we proposed a model based on the definition and parametrization of area sources. Using geological data, seismicity and other geophysical constraints, we delineated three-dimensional boundaries and activity rates of a seismotectonic zoning and explored the epistemic uncertainty by means of a logic-tree approach.
Warner Marzocchi, Jacopo Selva, and Thomas H. Jordan
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3509–3517, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3509-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3509-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Eruption forecasting and volcanic hazard analysis are pervaded by uncertainty of different kinds, such as the natural randomness, our lack of knowledge, and the so-called unknown unknowns. After discussing the limits of how classical probabilistic frameworks handle these uncertainties, we put forward a unified probabilistic framework which unambiguously defines uncertainty of different kinds, and it allows scientific validation of the hazard model against independent observations.
Andrea Antonucci, Andrea Rovida, Vera D'Amico, and Dario Albarello
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2299–2311, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2299-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2299-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We present a probabilistic approach for integrating incomplete intensity distributions by means of the Bayesian combination of estimates provided by intensity prediction equations (IPEs) and data documented at nearby localities, accounting for the relevant uncertainties. The performance of the proposed methodology is tested at 28 Italian localities with long and rich seismic histories and for the strong 1980 and 2009 earthquakes in Italy. An application of this approach is also illustrated.
Silvia Pondrelli, Francesco Visini, Andrea Rovida, Vera D'Amico, Bruno Pace, and Carlo Meletti
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 3577–3592, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-3577-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-3577-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We used 100 years of seismicity in Italy to predict the hypothetical tectonic style of future earthquakes, with the purpose of using this information in a new seismic hazard model. To squeeze all possible information out of the available data, we created a chain of criteria to be applied in the input and output selection processes. The result is a list of cases from very clear ones, e.g., extensional tectonics in the central Apennines, to completely random tectonics for future seismic events.
Cited articles
Abrahamson, N., Gregor, N., and Addo, K.: BC Hydro ground motion prediction equations for subduction earthquakes, Earthq. Spectra, 32, 23–44, https://doi.org/10.1193/051712EQS188MR, 2016.
Albarello, D. and D'Amico, V.: Scoring and testing procedures devoted to probabilistic seismic hazard assessment, Surv. Geophys., 36, 269–293, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10712-015-9316-4, 2015.
Albarello, D., Camassi, R., and Rebez, A.: Detection of space and time heterogeneity in the completeness of a seismic catalog by a statistical approach: an application to the Italian area, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am., 91, 1694–1703, https://doi.org/10.1785/0120000058, 2001.
Antonucci, A.: A probabilistic approach for integrating macroseismic data and its application to estimate the data completeness, PhD Thesis, University of Pisa, Pisa, 222 pp. https://etd.adm.unipi.it/theses/available/etd-02222022-104750/unrestricted/Andrea_Antonucci_PhD_Thesis.pdf (last access: 19 April 2024), 2022.
Antonucci, A., Rovida, A., D'Amico, V., and Albarello, D.: Looking for undocumented earthquake effects: a probabilistic analysis of Italian macroseismic data, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1805–1816, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1805-2023, 2023.
Bindi, D., Pacor, F., Luzi, L., Puglia, R., Massa, M., Ameri, G., and Paolucci, R.: Ground motion prediction equations derived from the Italian strong motion database, Bull. Earthq. Eng., 9, 1899–1920, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10518-011-9313-z, 2011.
Bindi, D., Massa, M., Luzi, L., Ameri, G., Pacor, F., Puglia, R., and Augliera, P.: Pan-European ground-motion prediction equations for the average horizontal component of PGA, PGV, and 5 %-damped PSA at spectral periods up to 3.0 s using the RESORCE dataset, Bull. Earthq. Eng., 12, 391–430, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10518-013-9525-5, 2014.
BRGM-EDF-IRSN/SisFrance: Histoire et caractéristiques des séismes ressentis en France, http://www.sisfrance.net (last access: 19 April 2024), 2017.
Cauzzi, C., Faccioli, E., Vanini, M., and Bianchini, A.: Updated predictive equations for broadband (0.01–10 s) horizontal response spectra and peak ground motions, based on a global dataset of digital acceleration records, Bull. Earthq. Eng., 13, 1587–1612, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10518-014-9685-y, 2015.
D'Amico, V. and Albarello, D.: SASHA: a computer program to assess seismic hazard from intensity data, Seismol. Res. Lett., 79, 663–671, https://doi.org/10.1785/gssrl.79.5.663, 2008.
Danciu, L., Nandan, S., Reyes, C., Basili, R., Weatherill, G., Beauval, C., Rovida, A., Vilanova, S., Sesetyan, K., Bard, P.-Y., Cotton, F., Wiemer, S., and Giardini, D.: The 2020 update of the European Seismic Hazard Model: Model Overview, EFEHR Technical Report 001, v1.0.0, https://doi.org/10.12686/a15, 2021.
Fäh, D., Giardini, D., Kästli, P., Deichmann, N., Gisler, M., Schwarz-Zanetti, G., Alvarez-Rubio, S., Sellami, S., Edwards, B., Allmann, B., Bethmann, F., Wössner, J., Gassner-Stamm, G., Fritsche, S., and Eberhard, D.: ECOS-09 Earthquake Catalogue of Switzerland Release 2011 Report and Database, Public catalogue, 17.4.2011, Swiss Seismological Service ETH Zurich, Report SED/RISK/R/001/20110417, 42 pp. + Appendixes, ETH Zurich, http://www.seismo.ethz.ch/static/ecos-09/ECOS-2009_Report_final_WEB.pdf (last access: 19 April 2024), 2011.
Gardner, J. K. and Knopoff, L.: Is the sequence of earthquakes in Southern California, with aftershocks removed, Poissonian?, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am., 64, 1363–1367, 1974.
Gerstenberger, M. C., Marzocchi, W., Allen, T., Pagani, M., Adams, J., Danciu, L., Field, E. H., Fujiwara, H., Luco, N., Ma, K.-F., Meletti, C., and Petersen, M. D.: Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis at regional and national scale: state of the art and future challenges, Rev. Geophys., 58, e2019RG000653, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019RG000653, 2020.
Gneiting, T. and Raftery, A. E.: Strictly proper scoring rules, prediction, and estimation, J. Am. Stat. Assoc., 102, 359–378, https://doi.org/10.1198/016214506000001437, 2007.
Gomez Capera, A. A., D'Amico, M., Lanzano, G., Locati, M., and Santulin, M.: Relationships between ground motion parameters and macroseismic intensity for Italy, Bull. Earthq. Eng., 18, 5143–5164, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10518-020-00905-0, 2020.
Grünthal, G.: European Macroseismic Scale 1998 (EMS-98), Cahiers du Centre Européen de Géodynamique et de Séismologie, 99 pp., https://media.gfz-potsdam.de/gfz/sec26/resources/documents/PDF/EMS-98_Original_englisch.pdf (last access: 19 April 2024), 1998.
Lanzano, G. and Luzi, L.: A ground motion model for volcanic areas in Italy, Bull. Earthq. Eng., 18, 57–76, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10518-019-00735-9, 2020.
Lanzano, G., Luzi, L., D'Amico, V., Pacor, F., Meletti, C., Marzocchi, W., Rotondi, R., and Varini, E.: Ground motion models for the new seismic hazard model of Italy (MPS19): selection for active shallow crustal regions and subduction zones, Bull. Earthq. Eng., 18, 3487–3516, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10518-020-00850-y, 2020.
Locati, M., Camassi, R., Rovida, A., Ercolani, E., Bernardini, F., Castelli, V., Caracciolo, C. H., Tertulliani, A., Rossi, A., Azzaro, R., D'Amico, S., Conte, S., and Rocchetti, E.: Italian Macroseismic Database (DBMI15), version 1.5, INGV – Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia [data set], https://doi.org/10.6092/INGV.IT-DBMI15, 2016.
Locati, M., Camassi, R., Rovida, A., Ercolani, E., Bernardini, F., Castelli, V., Caracciolo, C. H., Tertulliani, A., Rossi, A., Azzaro, R., D'Amico, S., and Antonucci, A.: Italian Macroseismic Database (DBMI15), version 4.0, INGV – Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia [data set], https://doi.org/10.13127/DBMI/DBMI15.4, 2022.
Lolli, B., Pasolini, C., Gasperini, P., and Vannucci, G.: Product 4.8: Recalibration of the prediction equation by Pasolini et al. (2008), in: The seismic hazard model MPS19, Final report, edited by: Meletti, C. and Marzocchi, W., CPS-INGV, Rome, 168 pp. + 2 Appendixes, 2019.
Meletti, C., Marzocchi, W., D'Amico, V., Lanzano, G., Luzi, L., Martinelli, F., Pace, B., Rovida, A., Taroni, M., Visini, F., and the MPS19 Working Group: The new Italian seismic hazard model (MPS19), Ann. Geophys.-Italy, 64, SE112, https://doi.org/10.4401/ag-8579, 2021.
Mori, F., Mendicelli, A., Moscatelli, M., Romagnoli, G., Peronace, E., and Naso, G.: A new Vs30 map for Italy based on the seismic microzonation dataset, Eng. Geol., 275, 105745, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enggeo.2020.105745, 2020.
Pasolini, C., Albarello, D., Gasperini, P., D'Amico, V., and Lolli, B.: The attenuation of seismic intensity in Italy, Part II: modeling and validation, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am., 98, 692–708, https://doi.org/10.1785/0120070021, 2008.
Petersen, M. D., Shumway, A. M., Powers, P. M., Field, E. H., Moschetti, M. P., Jaiswal, K. S., Milner, K. R., Rezaeian, S., Frankel, A. D., Llenos, A. L., Michael, A. J., Altekruse, J. M., Ahdi, S. K., Withers, K. B., Mueller, C. S., Zeng, Y., Chase, R. E., Salditch, L. M., Luco, N., Rukstales, K. S., Herrick, J. A., Girot, D. L., Aagaard, B. T., Bender, A. M., Blanpied, M. L., Briggs, R. W., Boyd, O. S., Clayton, B. S., DuRoss, C. B., Evans, E. L., Haeussler, P. J., Hatem, A. E., Haynie, K. L., Hearn, E. H., Johnson, K. M., Kortum, Z. A., Kwong, N. S., Makdisi, A. J., Mason, H. B., McNamara, D. E., McPhillips, D. F., Okubo, P. G., Page, M. T., Pollitz, F. F., Rubinstein, J. L., Shaw, B. E., Shen, Z.-K., Shiro, B. R., Smith, J. A., Stephenson, W. J., Thompson, E. M., Thompson Jobe, J. A., Wirth, E. A., and Witter, R. C.: The 2023 US 50-State National Seismic Hazard Model: Overview and implications, Earthq. Spectra, 40, 5–88, https://doi.org/10.1177/87552930231215428, 2024.
Rovida, A., Locati, M., Camassi, R., Lolli, B., and Gasperini, P.: Italian Parametric Earthquake Catalogue (CPTI15), version 1.5, INGV – Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia [data set], https://doi.org/10.6092/ingv.it-cpti15, 2016.
Rovida, A., Locati, M., Camassi, R., Lolli, B., and Gasperini, P.: The Italian earthquake catalogue CPTI15, Bull. Earthq. Eng., 18, 2953–2984, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10518-020-00818-y, 2020.
Sieberg, A.: Geologische, physikalische und angewandte Erdbebenkunde, G. Fischer, Jena, 1923.
Skarlatoudis, A. A., Papazachos, C. B., Margaris, B. N., Ventouzi, C., Kalogeras, I., and the EGELADOS Group: Ground-Motion Prediction Equations of intermediate-depth earthquakes in the Hellenic Arc, Southern Aegean subduction area, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am., 103, 1952–1968, https://doi.org/10.1785/0120120265, 2013.
Stucchi, M., Albini, P., Mirto, M., and Rebez, A.: Assessing the completeness of Italian historical earthquake data, Ann. Geophys.-Italy, 47, 2–3, https://doi.org/10.4401/ag-3330, 2004.
Stucchi, M., Meletti, C., Montaldo, V., Crowley, H., Calvi, G. M., and Boschi, E.: Seismic hazard assessment (2003–2009) for the Italian building code, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am., 101, 1885–1911, https://doi.org/10.1785/0120100130, 2011.
Visini, F., Pace, B., Meletti, C., Marzocchi, W., Akinci, A., Azzaro, R., Barani, S., Barberi, G., Barreca, G., Basili, R., Bird, P., Bonini, M., Burrato, P., Busetti, M., Carafa, M. M. C., Cocina, O., Console, R., Corti, G., D'Agostino, N., D'Amico, S., D'Amico, V., Dal Cin, M., Falcone, G., Fracassi, U., Gee, R., Kastelic, V., Lai, C. G., Langer, H., Maesano, F. E., Marchesini, A., Martelli, L., Monaco, C., Murru, M., Peruzza, L., Poli, M. E., Pondrelli, S., Rebez, A., Rotondi, R., Rovida, A., Sani, F., Santulin, M., Scafidi, D., Selva, J., Slejko, D., Spallarossa, D., Tamaro, A., Tarabusi, G., Taroni, M., Tiberti, M. M., Tusa, G., Tuvè, T., Valensise, G., Vannoli, P., Varini, E., Zanferrari, A., and Zuccolo, E.: Earthquake rupture forecasts for the MPS19 seismic hazard model of Italy, Ann. Geophys.-Italy, 64, SE220, https://doi.org/10.4401/ag-8608, 2021.
Woessner, J., Danciu, L., Giardini, D., Crowley, H., Cotton, F., Grünthal, G., Valensise, G., Arvidsson, R., Basili, R., Demircioglu, M. B., Hiemer, S., Meletti, C., Musson, R., Rovida, A., Sesetyan, K., Stucchi, M., and the SHARE consortium: The 2013 European seismic hazard model: key components and results, Bull. Earthq. Eng., 13, 3553–3596, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10518-015-9795-1, 2015.
Zechar, J. D., Gerstenberger, M. C., and Rhoades, D.: Likelihood-based tests for evaluating space-rate-magnitude earthquake forecasts, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am., 100, 1184–1195, https://doi.org/10.1785/0120090192, 2010.
Short summary
We propose a scoring strategy to rank multiple models/branches of a probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) model that could be useful to consider specific requests from stakeholders responsible for seismic risk reduction actions. In fact, applications of PSHA often require sampling a few hazard curves from the model. The procedure is introduced through an application aimed to score and rank the branches of a recent Italian PSHA model according to their fit with macroseismic intensity data.
We propose a scoring strategy to rank multiple models/branches of a probabilistic seismic hazard...
Special issue
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint