Articles | Volume 23, issue 12
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3863-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3863-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Multivariate regression trees as an “explainable machine learning” approach to explore relationships between hydroclimatic characteristics and agricultural and hydrological drought severity: case of study Cesar River basin
Ana Paez-Trujilo
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
IHE Delft Institute for Water Education, P.O. Box 3015, 2601 DA Delft, the Netherlands
Delft University of Technology, Water Resources Section, P.O. Box 5048, 2600 GA Delft, the Netherlands
Fundación Natura Colombia, P.O. 111311, Carrera 21 No. 39–43 Bogotá D.C., Colombia
Jeffer Cañon
Fundación Natura Colombia, P.O. 111311, Carrera 21 No. 39–43 Bogotá D.C., Colombia
Beatriz Hernandez
Fundación Natura Colombia, P.O. 111311, Carrera 21 No. 39–43 Bogotá D.C., Colombia
Gerald Corzo
IHE Delft Institute for Water Education, P.O. Box 3015, 2601 DA Delft, the Netherlands
Dimitri Solomatine
IHE Delft Institute for Water Education, P.O. Box 3015, 2601 DA Delft, the Netherlands
Delft University of Technology, Water Resources Section, P.O. Box 5048, 2600 GA Delft, the Netherlands
Water Problems Institute of RAS, 119333, Gubkina 3, Moscow, Russia
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Jitao Zhang, Dimitri Solomatine, and Zengchuan Dong
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 3739–3753, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3739-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3739-2024, 2024
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Faced with the problem of uncertainty in the field of water resources management, this paper proposes the Copula Multi-objective Robust Optimization and Probabilistic Analysis of Robustness (CM-ROPAR) approach to obtain robust water allocation schemes based on the uncertainty of drought and wet encounters and the uncertainty of inflow. We believe that this research article not only highlights the significance of the CM-ROPAR approach but also provides a new concept for uncertainty analysis.
Mohamed Elneel Elshaikh Eltayeb Elbasheer, Gerald Augusto Corzo, Dimitri Solomatine, and Emmanouil Varouchakis
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2023-98, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2023-98, 2023
Revised manuscript not accepted
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In this research, we explored the use of machine learning (ML) to improve the S2S ensemble precipitation forecast, different approaches were used as exploratory experiments to see which approach is better addressing the improvement of the ensemble probabilistic forecast, as a conclusion of our research, we found that the concept of committee model (CM) is a promising approach that can be further studied and evaluated using a different combination of the state of the art ML techniques.
Mohamed Elneel Elshaikh Eltayeb Elbasheer, Gerald Augusto Corzo, Dimitri Solomatine, and Emmanouil Varouchakis
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2022-348, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2022-348, 2022
Manuscript not accepted for further review
Short summary
Short summary
In this research, we explored the use of machine learning (ML) to improve the ECMWF S2S ensemble precipitation forecast, different approaches were used as exploratory experiments to see which approach is better addressing the improvement of the ensemble probabilistic forecast, as a conclusion of our research, we found that the concept of committee model (CM) is a promising approach that can be further studied and evaluated using a different combination of the state of the art ML techniques.
Vitali Diaz, Ahmed A. A. Osman, Gerald A. Corzo Perez, Henny A. J. Van Lanen, Shreedhar Maskey, and Dimitri Solomatine
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2022-252, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2022-252, 2022
Preprint withdrawn
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Drought impacts on crops can be assessed in terms of crop yield (CY) variation. The hypothesis is that the spatiotemporal change of drought area is a good input to predict CY. A step-by-step approach for predicting CY is built based on two types of machine learning models. Drought area was found suitable for predicting CY. Since it is currently possible to calculate drought areas within drought monitoring systems, the prediction of drought impacts can be integrated directly into them.
Vitali Diaz, Ahmed A. A. Osman, Gerald A. Corzo Perez, Henny A. J. Van Lanen, Shreedhar Maskey, and Dimitri Solomatine
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2021-600, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2021-600, 2021
Preprint withdrawn
Short summary
Short summary
Drought effects on crops are usually evaluated through crop yield (CY). The hypothesis is that the drought spatial extent is a good input to predict CY. A machine learning approach to predict crop yield is introduced. The use of drought area was found suitable. Since it is currently possible to calculate drought areas within drought monitoring systems, the direct application to predict drought effects can be integrated into them by following approaches such as the one presented or similar.
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Short summary
This study uses a machine learning technique, the multivariate regression tree approach, to assess the hydroclimatic characteristics that govern agricultural and hydrological drought severity. The results show that the employed technique successfully identified the primary drivers of droughts and their critical thresholds. In addition, it provides relevant information to identify the areas most vulnerable to droughts and design strategies and interventions for drought management.
This study uses a machine learning technique, the multivariate regression tree approach, to...
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