Past and future trends in fire weather for the UK

Perry, Matthew C.; Vanvyve, Emilie; Betts, Richard A.; Palin, Erika J.

doi:10.5194/nhess-22-559-2022

Articles | Volume 22, issue 2

https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-559-2022

© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-559-2022

© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Articles | Volume 22, issue 2

Research article

|

21 Feb 2022

Research article |

| 21 Feb 2022

Past and future trends in fire weather for the UK

Matthew C. Perry, Emilie Vanvyve, Richard A. Betts, and Erika J. Palin

Related authors

How well can we quantify when 1.5 °C of global warming has been exceeded?

Peter W. Thorne, John M. Nicklas, John J. Kennedy, Bruce Calvert, Baylor Fox-Kemper, Mark T. Richardson, Adrian Simmons, Ed Hawkins, Robert Rhode, Kathryn Cowtan, Nerilie J. Abram, Axel Andersson, Simon Noone, Phillipe Marbaix, Nathan Lenssen, Dirk Olonscheck, Tristram Walsh, Stephen Outten, Ingo Bethke, Bjorn H. Samset, Chris Smith, Anna Pirani, Jan Fuglestvedt, Lavanya Rajamani, Richard A. Betts, Elizabeth C. Kent, Blair Trewin, Colin Morice, Tim Osborn, Samantha N. Burgess, Oliver Geden, Andrew Parnell, Piers M. Forster, Chris Hewitt, Zeke Hausfather, Valerie Masson-Delmotte, Jochem Marotzke, Nathan Gillett, Sonia I. Seneviratne, Gavin A. Schmidt, Duo Chan, Stefan Brönnimann, Andy Reisinger, Matthew Menne, Maisa Rojas Corradi, Christopher Kadow, Peter Huybers, David B. Stephenson, Emily Wallis, Joeri Rogelj, Andrew Schurer, Karen McKinnon, Panmao Zhai, Fatima Driouech, Wilfran Moufouma Okia, Saeed Vazifehkhah, Sophie Szopa, Christopher J. Merchant, Shoji Hirahara, Masayoshi Ishii, Francois A. Engelbrecht, Qingxiang Li, June-Yi Lee, Alex J. Cannon, Christophe Cassou, Karina von Schuckmann, Amir H. Delju, and Ellie Murtagh

Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2025-825,https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2025-825, 2026

Preprint under review for ESSD

Short summary

Evaluation of national Greenhouse Gas Removal potential under a changing climate using a process-based land surface model

Hsi-Kai Chou, Anna B. Harper, Arthur P. K. Argles, Maria Carolina Duran Rojas, Emma W. Littleton, Richard A. Betts, and Peter M. Cox

EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4536,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4536, 2025

Short summary

Improving historical trends in the INFERNO fire model using the Human Development Index

Joao C. M. Teixeira, Chantelle Burton, Douglas I. Kelley, Gerd A. Folberth, Fiona M. O'Connor, Richard A. Betts, and Apostolos Voulgarakis

EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3066,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3066, 2025

Short summary

Indicators of Global Climate Change 2024: annual update of key indicators of the state of the climate system and human influence

Piers M. Forster, Chris Smith, Tristram Walsh, William F. Lamb, Robin Lamboll, Christophe Cassou, Mathias Hauser, Zeke Hausfather, June-Yi Lee, Matthew D. Palmer, Karina von Schuckmann, Aimée B. A. Slangen, Sophie Szopa, Blair Trewin, Jeongeun Yun, Nathan P. Gillett, Stuart Jenkins, H. Damon Matthews, Krishnan Raghavan, Aurélien Ribes, Joeri Rogelj, Debbie Rosen, Xuebin Zhang, Myles Allen, Lara Aleluia Reis, Robbie M. Andrew, Richard A. Betts, Alex Borger, Jiddu A. Broersma, Samantha N. Burgess, Lijing Cheng, Pierre Friedlingstein, Catia M. Domingues, Marco Gambarini, Thomas Gasser, Johannes Gütschow, Masayoshi Ishii, Christopher Kadow, John Kennedy, Rachel E. Killick, Paul B. Krummel, Aurélien Liné, Didier P. Monselesan, Colin Morice, Jens Mühle, Vaishali Naik, Glen P. Peters, Anna Pirani, Julia Pongratz, Jan C. Minx, Matthew Rigby, Robert Rohde, Abhishek Savita, Sonia I. Seneviratne, Peter Thorne, Christopher Wells, Luke M. Western, Guido R. van der Werf, Susan E. Wijffels, Valérie Masson-Delmotte, and Panmao Zhai

Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 17, 2641–2680, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-2641-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-2641-2025, 2025

Short summary

Limiting global warming to 1.5 °C minimises projected global increases in fire weather days, but adaptation to new fire regimes is still needed

Inika Taylor, Douglas I. Kelley, Camilla Mathison, Karina E. Williams, Andrew J. Hartley, Richard A. Betts, and Chantelle Burton

EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-720,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-720, 2025

Short summary

Bringing it all together: science priorities for improved understanding of Earth system change and to support international climate policy

Colin G. Jones, Fanny Adloff, Ben B. B. Booth, Peter M. Cox, Veronika Eyring, Pierre Friedlingstein, Katja Frieler, Helene T. Hewitt, Hazel A. Jeffery, Sylvie Joussaume, Torben Koenigk, Bryan N. Lawrence, Eleanor O'Rourke, Malcolm J. Roberts, Benjamin M. Sanderson, Roland Séférian, Samuel Somot, Pier Luigi Vidale, Detlef van Vuuren, Mario Acosta, Mats Bentsen, Raffaele Bernardello, Richard Betts, Ed Blockley, Julien Boé, Tom Bracegirdle, Pascale Braconnot, Victor Brovkin, Carlo Buontempo, Francisco Doblas-Reyes, Markus Donat, Italo Epicoco, Pete Falloon, Sandro Fiore, Thomas Frölicher, Neven S. Fučkar, Matthew J. Gidden, Helge F. Goessling, Rune Grand Graversen, Silvio Gualdi, José M. Gutiérrez, Tatiana Ilyina, Daniela Jacob, Chris D. Jones, Martin Juckes, Elizabeth Kendon, Erik Kjellström, Reto Knutti, Jason Lowe, Matthew Mizielinski, Paola Nassisi, Michael Obersteiner, Pierre Regnier, Romain Roehrig, David Salas y Mélia, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Michael Schulz, Enrico Scoccimarro, Laurent Terray, Hannes Thiemann, Richard A. Wood, Shuting Yang, and Sönke Zaehle

Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 1319–1351, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1319-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1319-2024, 2024

Short summary

Indicators of Global Climate Change 2023: annual update of key indicators of the state of the climate system and human influence

Piers M. Forster, Chris Smith, Tristram Walsh, William F. Lamb, Robin Lamboll, Bradley Hall, Mathias Hauser, Aurélien Ribes, Debbie Rosen, Nathan P. Gillett, Matthew D. Palmer, Joeri Rogelj, Karina von Schuckmann, Blair Trewin, Myles Allen, Robbie Andrew, Richard A. Betts, Alex Borger, Tim Boyer, Jiddu A. Broersma, Carlo Buontempo, Samantha Burgess, Chiara Cagnazzo, Lijing Cheng, Pierre Friedlingstein, Andrew Gettelman, Johannes Gütschow, Masayoshi Ishii, Stuart Jenkins, Xin Lan, Colin Morice, Jens Mühle, Christopher Kadow, John Kennedy, Rachel E. Killick, Paul B. Krummel, Jan C. Minx, Gunnar Myhre, Vaishali Naik, Glen P. Peters, Anna Pirani, Julia Pongratz, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Sonia I. Seneviratne, Sophie Szopa, Peter Thorne, Mahesh V. M. Kovilakam, Elisa Majamäki, Jukka-Pekka Jalkanen, Margreet van Marle, Rachel M. Hoesly, Robert Rohde, Dominik Schumacher, Guido van der Werf, Russell Vose, Kirsten Zickfeld, Xuebin Zhang, Valérie Masson-Delmotte, and Panmao Zhai

Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 16, 2625–2658, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-2625-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-2625-2024, 2024

Short summary

Cited articles

Abatzoglou, J. T., Williams, A. P., and Barbero, R.: Global emergence of anthropogenic climate change in fire weather indices, Geophys. Res. Lett., 46, 326–336, https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL080959, 2019.

Albertson, K., Aylen, J., Cavan, G., and McMorrow, J.: Climate change and the future occurrence of moorland wildfires in the Peak District of the UK, Clim. Res., 45, 105–118, https://doi.org/10.3354/cr00926, 2010.

Andela, N., Morton, D. C., Giglio, L., Chen, Y., van der Werf, G. R., Kasibhatla, P. S., DeFries, R. S., Collatz, G. J., Hantson, S., Kloster, S., Bachelet, D., Forrest, M., Lasslop, G, Li, F., Mangeon, S., Melton, J. R., Yue, C., and Randerson, J. T.: A human-driven decline in global burned area, Science, 356, 1356–1362, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aal4108, 2017.

Arnell, N. W., Freeman, A., and Gazzard, R.: The effect of climate change on indicators of fire danger in the UK, Environ. Res. Lett., 16, 044027, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abd9f2, 2021.

Bärring, L. and Strandberg, G.: Does the projected pathway to global warming targets matter?, Environ. Res. Lett., 13, 024029, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aa9f72, 2018.