Articles | Volume 22, issue 2
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-559-2022
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-559-2022
Research article
 | 
21 Feb 2022
Research article |  | 21 Feb 2022

Past and future trends in fire weather for the UK

Matthew C. Perry, Emilie Vanvyve, Richard A. Betts, and Erika J. Palin

Related authors

Evaluation of national Greenhouse Gas Removal potential under a changing climate using a process-based land surface model
Hsi-Kai Chou, Anna B. Harper, Arthur P. K. Argles, Maria Carolina Duran Rojas, Emma W. Littleton, Richard A. Betts, and Peter M. Cox
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4536,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4536, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Biogeosciences (BG).
Short summary
Improving historical trends in the INFERNO fire model using the Human Development Index
Joao C. M. Teixeira, Chantelle Burton, Douglas I. Kelley, Gerd A. Folberth, Fiona M. O'Connor, Richard A. Betts, and Apostolos Voulgarakis
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3066,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3066, 2025
Short summary
Indicators of Global Climate Change 2024: annual update of key indicators of the state of the climate system and human influence
Piers M. Forster, Chris Smith, Tristram Walsh, William F. Lamb, Robin Lamboll, Christophe Cassou, Mathias Hauser, Zeke Hausfather, June-Yi Lee, Matthew D. Palmer, Karina von Schuckmann, Aimée B. A. Slangen, Sophie Szopa, Blair Trewin, Jeongeun Yun, Nathan P. Gillett, Stuart Jenkins, H. Damon Matthews, Krishnan Raghavan, Aurélien Ribes, Joeri Rogelj, Debbie Rosen, Xuebin Zhang, Myles Allen, Lara Aleluia Reis, Robbie M. Andrew, Richard A. Betts, Alex Borger, Jiddu A. Broersma, Samantha N. Burgess, Lijing Cheng, Pierre Friedlingstein, Catia M. Domingues, Marco Gambarini, Thomas Gasser, Johannes Gütschow, Masayoshi Ishii, Christopher Kadow, John Kennedy, Rachel E. Killick, Paul B. Krummel, Aurélien Liné, Didier P. Monselesan, Colin Morice, Jens Mühle, Vaishali Naik, Glen P. Peters, Anna Pirani, Julia Pongratz, Jan C. Minx, Matthew Rigby, Robert Rohde, Abhishek Savita, Sonia I. Seneviratne, Peter Thorne, Christopher Wells, Luke M. Western, Guido R. van der Werf, Susan E. Wijffels, Valérie Masson-Delmotte, and Panmao Zhai
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 17, 2641–2680, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-2641-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-2641-2025, 2025
Short summary
Limiting global warming to 1.5 °C minimises projected global increases in fire weather days, but adaptation to new fire regimes is still needed
Inika Taylor, Douglas I. Kelley, Camilla Mathison, Karina E. Williams, Andrew J. Hartley, Richard A. Betts, and Chantelle Burton
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-720,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-720, 2025
Short summary
Future global water scarcity partially alleviated by vegetation responses to atmospheric CO2 and climate change
Jessica Stacey, Richard Betts, Andrew Hartley, Lina Mercado, and Nicola Gedney
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-51,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-51, 2025
Short summary

Cited articles

Abatzoglou, J. T., Williams, A. P., and Barbero, R.: Global emergence of anthropogenic climate change in fire weather indices, Geophys. Res. Lett., 46, 326–336, https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL080959, 2019. 
Albertson, K., Aylen, J., Cavan, G., and McMorrow, J.: Climate change and the future occurrence of moorland wildfires in the Peak District of the UK, Clim. Res., 45, 105–118, https://doi.org/10.3354/cr00926, 2010. 
Arnell, N. W., Freeman, A., and Gazzard, R.: The effect of climate change on indicators of fire danger in the UK, Environ. Res. Lett., 16, 044027, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abd9f2, 2021. 
Bärring, L. and Strandberg, G.: Does the projected pathway to global warming targets matter?, Environ. Res. Lett., 13, 024029, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aa9f72, 2018. 
Download
Short summary
In the past, wildfires in the UK have occurred mainly in spring, with occasional events during hot, dry summers. Climate models predict a large future increase in hazardous fire weather conditions in summer. Wildfire can be considered an emergent risk for the UK, as past events have not had widespread major impacts, but this could change. The large increase in risk between the 2 °C and 4 °C levels of global warming highlights the importance of global efforts to keep warming below 2 °C.
Share
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint