Articles | Volume 22, issue 2
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 559–575, 2022
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-559-2022
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 559–575, 2022
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-559-2022
Research article
21 Feb 2022
Research article | 21 Feb 2022

Past and future trends in fire weather for the UK

Matthew C. Perry et al.

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Cited articles

Abatzoglou, J. T., Williams, A. P., and Barbero, R.: Global emergence of anthropogenic climate change in fire weather indices, Geophys. Res. Lett., 46, 326–336, https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL080959, 2019. 
Albertson, K., Aylen, J., Cavan, G., and McMorrow, J.: Climate change and the future occurrence of moorland wildfires in the Peak District of the UK, Clim. Res., 45, 105–118, https://doi.org/10.3354/cr00926, 2010. 
Arnell, N. W., Freeman, A., and Gazzard, R.: The effect of climate change on indicators of fire danger in the UK, Environ. Res. Lett., 16, 044027, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abd9f2, 2021. 
Bärring, L. and Strandberg, G.: Does the projected pathway to global warming targets matter?, Environ. Res. Lett., 13, 024029, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aa9f72, 2018. 
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Short summary
In the past, wildfires in the UK have occurred mainly in spring, with occasional events during hot, dry summers. Climate models predict a large future increase in hazardous fire weather conditions in summer. Wildfire can be considered an emergent risk for the UK, as past events have not had widespread major impacts, but this could change. The large increase in risk between the 2 °C and 4 °C levels of global warming highlights the importance of global efforts to keep warming below 2 °C.
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