Articles | Volume 22, issue 2
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-559-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-559-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
21 Feb 2022
Research article |
| 21 Feb 2022
| 21 Feb 2022
Past and future trends in fire weather for the UK
Matthew C. Perry
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Met Office, FitzRoy Road, Exeter, EX1 3PB, UK
Emilie Vanvyve
Met Office, FitzRoy Road, Exeter, EX1 3PB, UK
Richard A. Betts
Met Office, FitzRoy Road, Exeter, EX1 3PB, UK
Global Systems Institute, University of Exeter, Laver Building, North Park Road, Exeter, EX4 4QE, UK
Erika J. Palin
Met Office, FitzRoy Road, Exeter, EX1 3PB, UK
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Cited
18 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Vegetation phenology as a key driver for fire occurrence in the UK and comparable humid temperate regions T. Nikonovas et al. 10.1071/WF23205
- Assessment of a New Fire Risk Index for the Atlantic Forest, Brazil R. Delgado et al. 10.3390/f13111844
- An optical satellite-based analysis of phenology and post-fire vegetation recovery in UK upland moorlands P. Labenski et al. 10.1016/j.indic.2024.100492
- Changes in European fire weather extremes and related atmospheric drivers T. Giannaros & G. Papavasileiou 10.1016/j.agrformet.2023.109749
- Europe faces up to tenfold increase in extreme fires in a warming climate S. El Garroussi et al. 10.1038/s41612-024-00575-8
- Assessing fire danger classes and extreme thresholds of the Canadian Fire Weather Index across global environmental zones: a review L. Kudláčková et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/ad97cf
- A global outlook on increasing wildfire risk: Current policy situation and future pathways P. Pandey et al. 10.1016/j.tfp.2023.100431
- Escalating Hot‐Dry Extremes Amplify Compound Fire Weather Risk X. Fan et al. 10.1029/2023EF003976
- Peat fires and legacy toxic metal release: An integrative biogeochemical and ecohydrological conceptual framework C. McCarter et al. 10.1016/j.earscirev.2024.104867
- Increasing fire danger in the Netherlands due to climate change H. Lambrechts et al. 10.1071/WF24020
- State of Wildfires 2023–2024 M. Jones et al. 10.5194/essd-16-3601-2024
- The role of weather and climate information services to support in wildfire management in Northwestern Europe H. Lambrechts et al. 10.1016/j.crm.2024.100672
- Cross-landscape fuel moisture differences impact simulated fire behaviour K. Little et al. 10.1071/WF24019
- Woodland expansion and upland management strategy dilemmas for biodiversity and carbon storage in the Cairngorms national park M. Valette et al. 10.3389/fenvs.2024.1411659
- Net carbon dioxide emissions from an eroding Atlantic blanket bog R. Artz et al. 10.1007/s10533-022-00923-x
- A Forest Fire Susceptibility Modeling Approach Based on Light Gradient Boosting Machine Algorithm Y. Sun et al. 10.3390/rs14174362
- Projected impact of carbon dioxide (CO2) removal from the atmosphere on radiative flux over West Africa E. Uzoma & M. Adeniyi 10.1007/s12040-024-02408-x
- Vegetation-derived pyrogenic carbon degradation and stabilisation in UK peatlands† O. Kennedy-Blundell et al. 10.1071/WF22166
18 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Vegetation phenology as a key driver for fire occurrence in the UK and comparable humid temperate regions T. Nikonovas et al. 10.1071/WF23205
- Assessment of a New Fire Risk Index for the Atlantic Forest, Brazil R. Delgado et al. 10.3390/f13111844
- An optical satellite-based analysis of phenology and post-fire vegetation recovery in UK upland moorlands P. Labenski et al. 10.1016/j.indic.2024.100492
- Changes in European fire weather extremes and related atmospheric drivers T. Giannaros & G. Papavasileiou 10.1016/j.agrformet.2023.109749
- Europe faces up to tenfold increase in extreme fires in a warming climate S. El Garroussi et al. 10.1038/s41612-024-00575-8
- Assessing fire danger classes and extreme thresholds of the Canadian Fire Weather Index across global environmental zones: a review L. Kudláčková et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/ad97cf
- A global outlook on increasing wildfire risk: Current policy situation and future pathways P. Pandey et al. 10.1016/j.tfp.2023.100431
- Escalating Hot‐Dry Extremes Amplify Compound Fire Weather Risk X. Fan et al. 10.1029/2023EF003976
- Peat fires and legacy toxic metal release: An integrative biogeochemical and ecohydrological conceptual framework C. McCarter et al. 10.1016/j.earscirev.2024.104867
- Increasing fire danger in the Netherlands due to climate change H. Lambrechts et al. 10.1071/WF24020
- State of Wildfires 2023–2024 M. Jones et al. 10.5194/essd-16-3601-2024
- The role of weather and climate information services to support in wildfire management in Northwestern Europe H. Lambrechts et al. 10.1016/j.crm.2024.100672
- Cross-landscape fuel moisture differences impact simulated fire behaviour K. Little et al. 10.1071/WF24019
- Woodland expansion and upland management strategy dilemmas for biodiversity and carbon storage in the Cairngorms national park M. Valette et al. 10.3389/fenvs.2024.1411659
- Net carbon dioxide emissions from an eroding Atlantic blanket bog R. Artz et al. 10.1007/s10533-022-00923-x
- A Forest Fire Susceptibility Modeling Approach Based on Light Gradient Boosting Machine Algorithm Y. Sun et al. 10.3390/rs14174362
- Projected impact of carbon dioxide (CO2) removal from the atmosphere on radiative flux over West Africa E. Uzoma & M. Adeniyi 10.1007/s12040-024-02408-x
- Vegetation-derived pyrogenic carbon degradation and stabilisation in UK peatlands† O. Kennedy-Blundell et al. 10.1071/WF22166
Latest update: 25 Dec 2024
Short summary
In the past, wildfires in the UK have occurred mainly in spring, with occasional events during hot, dry summers. Climate models predict a large future increase in hazardous fire weather conditions in summer. Wildfire can be considered an
emergent riskfor the UK, as past events have not had widespread major impacts, but this could change. The large increase in risk between the 2 °C and 4 °C levels of global warming highlights the importance of global efforts to keep warming below 2 °C.
In the past, wildfires in the UK have occurred mainly in spring, with occasional events during...
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