Articles | Volume 22, issue 2
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 559–575, 2022
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-559-2022
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 559–575, 2022
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-559-2022

Research article 21 Feb 2022

Research article | 21 Feb 2022

Past and future trends in fire weather for the UK

Matthew C. Perry et al.

Data sets

The Collection 6 MODIS burned area mapping algorithm and product (https://lpdaacsvc.cr.usgs.gov/appeears/) Louis Giglio, Luigi Boschetti, David P. Roy, Michael L. Humber, and Christopher O. Justice https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rse.2018.08.005

Fire danger indices historical data from the Copernicus Emergency Management Service (https://cds.climate.copernicus.eu/) Copernicus https://doi.org/10.24381/cds.0e89c522

UKCP18 regional projections on a 12 km grid over the UK for 1980–2080 Met Office Hadley Centre https://catalogue.ceda.ac.uk/uuid/ 589211abeb844070a95d061c8cc7f604

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Short summary
In the past, wildfires in the UK have occurred mainly in spring, with occasional events during hot, dry summers. Climate models predict a large future increase in hazardous fire weather conditions in summer. Wildfire can be considered an emergent risk for the UK, as past events have not had widespread major impacts, but this could change. The large increase in risk between the 2 °C and 4 °C levels of global warming highlights the importance of global efforts to keep warming below 2 °C.
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