Articles | Volume 22, issue 8
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2725-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2725-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
23 Aug 2022
Research article |
| 23 Aug 2022
| 23 Aug 2022
A dynamic hierarchical Bayesian approach for forecasting vegetation condition
The Data Intensive Science Centre, Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of Sussex, Brighton BN1 9QH, UK
Peter D. Hurley
The Data Intensive Science Centre, Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of Sussex, Brighton BN1 9QH, UK
Astronomy Centre, Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of Sussex, Brighton BN1 9QH, UK
James M. Muthoka
Department of Geography, School of Global Studies, University of Sussex, Brighton BN1 9QJ, UK
Andrew Bowell
The Data Intensive Science Centre, Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of Sussex, Brighton BN1 9QH, UK
Astronomy Centre, Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of Sussex, Brighton BN1 9QH, UK
Seb Oliver
The Data Intensive Science Centre, Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of Sussex, Brighton BN1 9QH, UK
Astronomy Centre, Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of Sussex, Brighton BN1 9QH, UK
Pedram Rowhani
Department of Geography, School of Global Studies, University of Sussex, Brighton BN1 9QJ, UK
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Edward E. Salakpi, Peter D. Hurley, James M. Muthoka, Adam B. Barrett, Andrew Bowell, Seb Oliver, and Pedram Rowhani
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2703–2723, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2703-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2703-2022, 2022
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The devastating effects of recurring drought conditions are mostly felt by pastoralists that rely on grass and shrubs as fodder for their animals. Using historical information from precipitation, soil moisture, and vegetation health data, we developed a model that can forecast vegetation condition and the probability of drought occurrence up till a 10-week lead time with an accuracy of 74 %. Our model can be adopted by policymakers and relief agencies for drought early warning and early action.
Edward E. Salakpi, Peter D. Hurley, James M. Muthoka, Adam B. Barrett, Andrew Bowell, Seb Oliver, and Pedram Rowhani
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2703–2723, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2703-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2703-2022, 2022
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The devastating effects of recurring drought conditions are mostly felt by pastoralists that rely on grass and shrubs as fodder for their animals. Using historical information from precipitation, soil moisture, and vegetation health data, we developed a model that can forecast vegetation condition and the probability of drought occurrence up till a 10-week lead time with an accuracy of 74 %. Our model can be adopted by policymakers and relief agencies for drought early warning and early action.
David MacLeod, Mary Kilavi, Emmah Mwangi, Maurine Ambani, Michael Osunga, Joanne Robbins, Richard Graham, Pedram Rowhani, and Martin C. Todd
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 261–277, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-261-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-261-2021, 2021
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Forecasts of natural hazards save lives. But the accuracy of forecasts must be evaluated before use. Here we evaluate heavy rainfall advisories over Kenya. We assess their ability to anticipate heavy rainfall and show how well they warned of recent floods which had significant impacts. We find that although they effectively warn of heavy rainfall and flooding, issues such as a lack of spatial detail limit their utility for systematic approaches to preparedness.
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Assessing riverbank erosion in Bangladesh using time series of Sentinel-1 radar imagery in the Google Earth Engine
Quantifying unequal urban resilience to rainfall across China from location-aware big data
Comparison of machine learning techniques for reservoir outflow forecasting
Development of black ice prediction model using GIS-based multi-sensor model validation
Forecasting vegetation condition with a Bayesian auto-regressive distributed lags (BARDL) model
Impact of topography on in-situ soil wetness measurements for regional landslide early warning – a case study from the Swiss Alpine Foreland
Using a single remote-sensing image to calculate the height of a landslide dam and the maximum volume of a lake
Enhancing disaster risk resilience using greenspace in urbanising Quito, Ecuador
Gridded flood depth estimates from satellite-derived inundations
ProbFire: a probabilistic fire early warning system for Indonesia
Index establishment and capability evaluation of space–air–ground remote sensing cooperation in geohazard emergency response
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Multiscale analysis of surface roughness for the improvement of natural hazard modelling
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Are sirens effective tools to alert the population in France?
UAV survey method to monitor and analyze geological hazards: the case study of the mud volcano of Villaggio Santa Barbara, Caltanissetta (Sicily)
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Long-term magnetic anomalies and their possible relationship to the latest greater Chilean earthquakes in the context of the seismo-electromagnetic theory
HazMapper: a global open-source natural hazard mapping application in Google Earth Engine
Opportunities and risks of disaster data from social media: a systematic review of incident information
Online urban-waterlogging monitoring based on a recurrent neural network for classification of microblogging text
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Statistical analysis for satellite-index-based insurance to define damaged pasture thresholds
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Anirudh Rao, Jungkyo Jung, Vitor Silva, Giuseppe Molinario, and Sang-Ho Yun
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 789–807, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-789-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-789-2023, 2023
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This article presents a framework for semi-automated building damage assessment due to earthquakes from remote-sensing data and other supplementary datasets including high-resolution building inventories, while also leveraging recent advances in machine-learning algorithms. For three out of the four recent earthquakes studied, the machine-learning framework is able to identify over 50 % or nearly half of the damaged buildings successfully.
Jan Freihardt and Othmar Frey
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 751–770, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-751-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-751-2023, 2023
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In Bangladesh, riverbank erosion occurs every year during the monsoon and affects thousands of households. Information on locations and extent of past erosion can help anticipate where erosion might occur in the upcoming monsoon season and to take preventive measures. In our study, we show how time series of radar satellite imagery can be used to retrieve information on past erosion events shortly after the monsoon season using a novel interactive online tool based on the Google Earth Engine.
Jiale Qian, Yunyan Du, Jiawei Yi, Fuyuan Liang, Nan Wang, Ting Ma, and Tao Pei
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 317–328, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-317-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-317-2023, 2023
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Human activities across China show a similar trend in response to rains. However, urban resilience varies significantly by region. The northwestern arid region and the central underdeveloped areas are very fragile, and even low-intensity rains can trigger significant human activity anomalies. By contrast, even high-intensity rains might not affect residents in the southeast.
Orlando García-Feal, José González-Cao, Diego Fernández-Nóvoa, Gonzalo Astray Dopazo, and Moncho Gómez-Gesteira
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3859–3874, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3859-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3859-2022, 2022
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Extreme events have increased in the last few decades; having a good estimation of the outflow of a reservoir can be an advantage for water management or early warning systems. This study analyzes the efficiency of different machine learning techniques to predict reservoir outflow. The results obtained showed that the proposed models provided a good estimation of the outflow of the reservoirs, improving the results obtained with classical approaches.
Seok Bum Hong, Hong Sik Yun, Sang Guk Yum, Seung Yeop Ryu, In Seong Jeong, and Jisung Kim
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This study advances previous models through machine learning and multi-sensor-verified results. Using spatial and meteorological data from the study area (Suncheon–Wanju Highway in Gurye-gun), the amount and location of black ice were modelled based on system dynamics to predict black ice and then simulated with the geographic information system (m2). Based on the model results, multiple sensors were buried at four selected points in the study area, and the model was compared with sensor data.
Edward E. Salakpi, Peter D. Hurley, James M. Muthoka, Adam B. Barrett, Andrew Bowell, Seb Oliver, and Pedram Rowhani
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2703–2723, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2703-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2703-2022, 2022
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The devastating effects of recurring drought conditions are mostly felt by pastoralists that rely on grass and shrubs as fodder for their animals. Using historical information from precipitation, soil moisture, and vegetation health data, we developed a model that can forecast vegetation condition and the probability of drought occurrence up till a 10-week lead time with an accuracy of 74 %. Our model can be adopted by policymakers and relief agencies for drought early warning and early action.
Adrian Wicki, Peter Lehmann, Christian Hauck, and Manfred Stähli
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2022-211, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2022-211, 2022
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
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Soil wetness measurements are used for shallow landslide prediction, however existing sites are often located in flat terrain. Here, we assessed the ability of monitoring sites at flat locations to detect critically saturated conditions, compared to if it was situated at a landslide-prone location. We found that differences exist, but that both sites could equally well distinguish critical from non-critical conditions for shallow landslide triggering if relative changes are considered.
Weijie Zou, Yi Zhou, Shixin Wang, Futao Wang, Litao Wang, Qing Zhao, Wenliang Liu, Jinfeng Zhu, Yibing Xiong, Zhenqing Wang, and Gang Qin
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2081–2097, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2081-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2081-2022, 2022
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Landslide dams are secondary disasters caused by landslides, which can cause great damage to mountains. We have proposed a procedure to calculate the key parameters of these dams that uses only a single remote-sensing image and a pre-landslide DEM combined with landslide theory. The core of this study is a modeling problem. We have found the bridge between the theory of landslide dams and the requirements of disaster relief.
C. Scott Watson, John R. Elliott, Susanna K. Ebmeier, María Antonieta Vásquez, Camilo Zapata, Santiago Bonilla-Bedoya, Paulina Cubillo, Diego Francisco Orbe, Marco Córdova, Jonathan Menoscal, and Elisa Sevilla
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1699–1721, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1699-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1699-2022, 2022
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We assess how greenspaces could guide risk-informed planning and reduce disaster risk for the urbanising city of Quito, Ecuador, which experiences earthquake, volcano, landslide, and flood hazards. We use satellite data to evaluate the use of greenspaces as safe spaces following an earthquake. We find disparities regarding access to and availability of greenspaces. The availability of greenspaces that could contribute to community resilience is high; however, many require official designation.
Seth Bryant, Heather McGrath, and Mathieu Boudreault
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1437–1450, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1437-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1437-2022, 2022
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The advent of new satellite technologies improves our ability to study floods. While the depth of water at flooded buildings is generally the most important variable for flood researchers, extracting this accurately from satellite data is challenging. The software tool presented here accomplishes this, and tests show the tool is more accurate than competing tools. This achievement unlocks more detailed studies of past floods and improves our ability to plan for and mitigate disasters.
Tadas Nikonovas, Allan Spessa, Stefan H. Doerr, Gareth D. Clay, and Symon Mezbahuddin
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 303–322, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-303-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-303-2022, 2022
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Extreme fire episodes in Indonesia emit large amounts of greenhouse gasses and have negative effects on human health in the region. In this study we show that such burning events can be predicted several months in advance in large parts of Indonesia using existing seasonal climate forecasts and forest cover change datasets. A reliable early fire warning system would enable local agencies to prepare and mitigate the worst of the effects.
Yahong Liu and Jin Zhang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 227–244, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-227-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-227-2022, 2022
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Through a comprehensive analysis of the current remote sensing technology resources, this paper establishes the database to realize the unified management of heterogeneous sensor resources and proposes a capability evaluation method of remote sensing cooperative technology in geohazard emergencies, providing a decision-making basis for the establishment of remote sensing cooperative observations in geohazard emergencies.
Diego Guenzi, Danilo Godone, Paolo Allasia, Nunzio Luciano Fazio, Michele Perrotti, and Piernicola Lollino
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 207–212, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-207-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-207-2022, 2022
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In the Apulia region (southeastern Italy) we are monitoring a soft-rock coastal cliff using webcams and strain sensors. In this urban and touristic area, coastal recession is extremely rapid and rockfalls are very frequent. In our work we are using low-cost and open-source hardware and software, trying to correlate both meteorological information with measures obtained from crack meters and webcams, aiming to recognize potential precursor signals that could be triggered by instability phenomena.
Natalie Brožová, Tommaso Baggio, Vincenzo D'Agostino, Yves Bühler, and Peter Bebi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3539–3562, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3539-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3539-2021, 2021
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Surface roughness plays a great role in natural hazard processes but is not always well implemented in natural hazard modelling. The results of our study show how surface roughness can be useful in representing vegetation and ground structures, which are currently underrated. By including surface roughness in natural hazard modelling, we could better illustrate the processes and thus improve hazard mapping, which is crucial for infrastructure and settlement planning in mountainous areas.
Hugues Brenot, Nicolas Theys, Lieven Clarisse, Jeroen van Gent, Daniel R. Hurtmans, Sophie Vandenbussche, Nikolaos Papagiannopoulos, Lucia Mona, Timo Virtanen, Andreas Uppstu, Mikhail Sofiev, Luca Bugliaro, Margarita Vázquez-Navarro, Pascal Hedelt, Michelle Maree Parks, Sara Barsotti, Mauro Coltelli, William Moreland, Simona Scollo, Giuseppe Salerno, Delia Arnold-Arias, Marcus Hirtl, Tuomas Peltonen, Juhani Lahtinen, Klaus Sievers, Florian Lipok, Rolf Rüfenacht, Alexander Haefele, Maxime Hervo, Saskia Wagenaar, Wim Som de Cerff, Jos de Laat, Arnoud Apituley, Piet Stammes, Quentin Laffineur, Andy Delcloo, Robertson Lennart, Carl-Herbert Rokitansky, Arturo Vargas, Markus Kerschbaum, Christian Resch, Raimund Zopp, Matthieu Plu, Vincent-Henri Peuch, Michel Van Roozendael, and Gerhard Wotawa
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3367–3405, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3367-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3367-2021, 2021
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The purpose of the EUNADICS-AV (European Natural Airborne Disaster Information and Coordination System for Aviation) prototype early warning system (EWS) is to develop the combined use of harmonised data products from satellite, ground-based and in situ instruments to produce alerts of airborne hazards (volcanic, dust, smoke and radionuclide clouds), satisfying the requirement of aviation air traffic management (ATM) stakeholders (https://cordis.europa.eu/project/id/723986).
Johnny Douvinet, Anna Serra-Llobet, Esteban Bopp, and G. Mathias Kondolf
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2899–2920, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2899-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2899-2021, 2021
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This study proposes to combine results of research regarding the spatial inequalities due to the siren coverage, the political dilemma of siren activation, and the social problem of siren awareness and trust for people in France. Surveys were conducted using a range of complementary methods (GIS analysis, statistical analysis, questionnaires, interviews) through different scales. Results show that siren coverage in France is often determined by population density but not risks or disasters.
Fabio Brighenti, Francesco Carnemolla, Danilo Messina, and Giorgio De Guidi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2881–2898, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2881-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2881-2021, 2021
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In this paper we propose a methodology to mitigate hazard in a natural environment in an urbanized context. The deformation of the ground is a precursor of paroxysms in mud volcanoes. Therefore, through the analysis of the deformation supported by a statistical approach, this methodology was tested to reduce the hazard around the mud volcano. In the future, the goal is that this dangerous area will become both a naturalistic heritage and a source of development for the community of the area.
Doris Hermle, Markus Keuschnig, Ingo Hartmeyer, Robert Delleske, and Michael Krautblatter
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2753–2772, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2753-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2753-2021, 2021
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Multispectral remote sensing imagery enables landslide detection and monitoring, but its applicability to time-critical early warning is rarely studied. We present a concept to operationalise its use for landslide early warning, aiming to extend lead time. We tested PlanetScope and unmanned aerial system images on a complex mass movement and compared processing times to historic benchmarks. Acquired data are within the forecasting window, indicating the feasibility for landslide early warning.
Michal Bíl, Pavel Raška, Lukáš Dolák, and Jan Kubeček
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2581–2596, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2581-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2581-2021, 2021
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The online landslide database CHILDA (Czech Historical Landslide Database) summarises information about landslides which occurred in the area of Czechia (the Czech Republic). The database is freely accessible via the https://childa.cz/ website. It includes 699 records (spanning the period of 1132–1989). Overall, 55 % of all recorded landslide events occurred only within 15 years of the extreme landslide incidence.
Anna Kruspe, Jens Kersten, and Friederike Klan
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1825–1845, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1825-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1825-2021, 2021
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Messages on social media can be an important source of information during crisis situations. This article reviews approaches for the reliable detection of informative messages in a flood of data. We demonstrate the varying goals of these approaches and present existing data sets. We then compare approaches based (1) on keyword and location filtering, (2) on crowdsourcing, and (3) on machine learning. We also point out challenges and suggest future research.
Enrique Guillermo Cordaro, Patricio Venegas-Aravena, and David Laroze
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1785–1806, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1785-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1785-2021, 2021
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We developed a methodology that generates free externally disturbed magnetic variations in ground magnetometers close to the Chilean convergent margin. Spectral analysis (~ mHz) and magnetic anomalies increased prior to large Chilean earthquakes (Maule 2010, Mw 8.8; Iquique 2014, Mw 8.2; Illapel 2015, Mw 8.3). These findings relate to microcracks within the lithosphere due to stress state changes. This physical evidence should be thought of as a last stage of the earthquake preparation process.
Corey M. Scheip and Karl W. Wegmann
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1495–1511, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1495-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1495-2021, 2021
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For many decades, natural disasters have been monitored by trained analysts using multiple satellite images to observe landscape change. This approach is incredibly useful, but our new tool, HazMapper, offers researchers and the scientifically curious public a web-accessible
cloud-based tool to perform similar analysis. We intend for the tool to both be used in scientific research and provide rapid response to global natural disasters like landslides, wildfires, and volcanic eruptions.
Matti Wiegmann, Jens Kersten, Hansi Senaratne, Martin Potthast, Friederike Klan, and Benno Stein
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1431–1444, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1431-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1431-2021, 2021
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In this paper, we study when social media is an adequate source to find metadata about incidents that cannot be acquired by traditional means. We identify six major use cases: impact assessment and verification of model predictions, narrative generation, recruiting citizen volunteers, supporting weakly institutionalized areas, narrowing surveillance areas, and reporting triggers for periodical surveillance.
Hui Liu, Ya Hao, Wenhao Zhang, Hanyue Zhang, Fei Gao, and Jinping Tong
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1179–1194, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1179-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1179-2021, 2021
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We trained a recurrent neural network model to classify microblogging posts related to urban waterlogging and establish an online monitoring system of urban waterlogging caused by flood disasters. We manually curated more than 4400 waterlogging posts to train the RNN model so that it can precisely identify waterlogging-related posts of Sina Weibo to timely determine urban waterlogging.
Roope Tervo, Ilona Láng, Alexander Jung, and Antti Mäkelä
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 607–627, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-607-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-607-2021, 2021
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Predicting the number of power outages caused by extratropical storms is a key challenge for power grid operators. We introduce a novel method to predict the storm severity for the power grid employing ERA5 reanalysis data combined with a forest inventory. The storms are first identified from the data and then classified using several machine-learning methods. While there is plenty of room to improve, the results are already usable, with support vector classifier providing the best performance.
Michaela Wenner, Clément Hibert, Alec van Herwijnen, Lorenz Meier, and Fabian Walter
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 339–361, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-339-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-339-2021, 2021
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Mass movements constitute a risk to property and human life. In this study we use machine learning to automatically detect and classify slope failure events using ground vibrations. We explore the influence of non-ideal though commonly encountered conditions: poor network coverage, small number of events, and low signal-to-noise ratios. Our approach enables us to detect the occurrence of rare events of high interest in a large data set of more than a million windowed seismic signals.
Luiz Felipe Galizia, Thomas Curt, Renaud Barbero, and Marcos Rodrigues
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 73–86, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-73-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-73-2021, 2021
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This paper aims to provide a quantitative evaluation of three remotely sensed fire datasets which have recently emerged as an important resource to improve our understanding of fire regimes. Our findings suggest that remotely sensed fire datasets can be used to proxy variations in fire activity on monthly and annual timescales; however, caution is advised when drawing information from smaller fires (< 100 ha) across the Mediterranean region.
Philippe Weyrich, Anna Scolobig, Florian Walther, and Anthony Patt
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2811–2821, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2811-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2811-2020, 2020
Patric Kellermann, Kai Schröter, Annegret H. Thieken, Sören-Nils Haubrock, and Heidi Kreibich
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2503–2519, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2503-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2503-2020, 2020
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The flood damage database HOWAS 21 contains object-specific flood damage data resulting from fluvial, pluvial and groundwater flooding. The datasets incorporate various variables of flood hazard, exposure, vulnerability and direct tangible damage at properties from several economic sectors. This paper presents HOWAS 21 and highlights exemplary analyses to demonstrate the use of HOWAS 21 flood damage data.
Giuseppe Esposito, Ivan Marchesini, Alessandro Cesare Mondini, Paola Reichenbach, Mauro Rossi, and Simone Sterlacchini
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2379–2395, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2379-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2379-2020, 2020
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In this article, we present an automatic processing chain aimed to support the detection of landslides that induce sharp land cover changes. The chain exploits free software and spaceborne SAR data, allowing the systematic monitoring of wide mountainous regions exposed to mass movements. In the test site, we verified a general accordance between the spatial distribution of seismically induced landslides and the detected land cover changes, demonstrating its potential use in emergency management.
Mohammad Malakootian and Majid Nozari
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2351–2363, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2351-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2351-2020, 2020
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The present study estimated the Kerman–Baghin aquifer vulnerability using DRASTIC and composite DRASTIC (CDRASTIC) indices with the aid of geographic information system (GIS) techniques. The aquifer vulnerability maps indicated very similar results, identifying the north-west parts of the aquifer as areas with high to very high vulnerability. According to the results, parts of the studied aquifer have a high vulnerability and require protective measures.
Diana Contreras, Alondra Chamorro, and Sean Wilkinson
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1663–1687, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1663-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1663-2020, 2020
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The socio-economic condition of the population determines their vulnerability to earthquakes, tsunamis, volcanic eruptions, landslides, soil erosion and land degradation. This condition is estimated mainly from population censuses. The lack to access to basic services, proximity to hazard zones, poverty and population density highly influence the vulnerability of communities. Mapping the location of this vulnerable population makes it possible to prevent and mitigate their risk.
Simona Colombelli, Francesco Carotenuto, Luca Elia, and Aldo Zollo
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 921–931, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-921-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-921-2020, 2020
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We developed a mobile app for Android devices which receives the alerts generated by a network-based early warning system, predicts the expected ground-shaking intensity and the available lead time at the user position, and provides customized messages to inform the user about the proper reaction to the alert. The app represents a powerful tool for informing in real time a wide audience of end users and stakeholders about the potential damaging shaking in the occurrence of an earthquake.
Richard Styron, Julio García-Pelaez, and Marco Pagani
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 831–857, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-831-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-831-2020, 2020
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The Caribbean and Central American region is both tectonically active and densely populated, leading to a large population that is exposed to earthquake hazards. Until now, no comprehensive fault data covering the region have been available. We present a new public fault database for Central America and the Caribbean that synthesizes published studies with new mapping from remote sensing to provide fault sources for the CCARA seismic hazard and risk analysis project and to aid future research.
María del Pilar Jiménez-Donaire, Ana Tarquis, and Juan Vicente Giráldez
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 21–33, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-21-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-21-2020, 2020
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A new combined drought indicator (CDI) is proposed that integrates rainfall, soil moisture and vegetation dynamics. The performance of this indicator was evaluated against crop damage data from agricultural insurance schemes in five different areas in SW Spain. Results show that this indicator was able to predict important droughts in 2004–2005 and 2011–2012, marked by crop damage of between 70 % and 95 % of the total insured area. This opens important applications for improving insurance schemes.
Quancai Xie, Qiang Ma, Jingfa Zhang, and Haiying Yu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 2827–2839, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-2827-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-2827-2019, 2019
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This paper evaluates a new method for modeling the site amplification factor. Through implementing this method and making simulations for different cases, we find that this method shows better performance than the previous method and JMA report. We better understand the advantages and disadvantages of this method, although there are some problems that need to be considered carefully and solved; it shows good potential to be used in future earthquake early warning systems.
David A. Bonneau, D. Jean Hutchinson, Paul-Mark DiFrancesco, Melanie Coombs, and Zac Sala
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 2745–2765, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-2745-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-2745-2019, 2019
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In mountainous regions around the world rockfalls pose a hazard to infrastructure and society. To aid in our understanding and management of these complex hazards, an inventory can be compiled. Three-dimensional remote sensing data can be used to locate the source zones of these events and generate models of areas which detached. We address the way in which the shape of a rockfall object can be measured. The shape of a rockfall has implications for forward modelling of potential runout zones.
Kwonmin Lee, Hye-Sil Kim, and Yong-Sang Choi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 2241–2248, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-2241-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-2241-2019, 2019
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This study examined the advances in the predictability of thunderstorms using geostationary satellite imageries. Our present results show that by using the latest geostationary satellite data (with a resolution of 2 km and 10 min), thunderstorms can be predicted 90–180 min ahead of their mature state. These data can capture the rapidly growing cloud tops before the cloud moisture falls as precipitation and enable prompt preparation and the mitigation of hazards.
Qingyun Zhang, Yongsheng Li, Jingfa Zhang, and Yi Luo
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 2229–2240, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-2229-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-2229-2019, 2019
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Before the opening of the railway, the deformation of the Qinghai–Tibet Railway was very small and considered stable. After opening, the overall stability of the railway section was good. The main deformation areas are concentrated in the areas where railway lines turn and geological disasters are concentrated. In order to ensure the safety of railway operation, it is necessary to carry out long-term time series observation along the Qinghai–Tibet Railway.
Xiao Huang, Cuizhen Wang, and Junyu Lu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 2141–2155, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-2141-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-2141-2019, 2019
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This study examined the spatiotemporal dynamics of nighttime satellite-derived human settlement in response to different levels of hurricane proneness in a period from 1992 to 2013. It confirms the
Snow Belt-to-Sun BeltUS population shift trend. The results also suggest that hurricane-exposed human settlement has grown in extent and area, as more hurricane exposure has experienced a larger increase rate in settlement intensity.
Maja Kucharczyk and Chris H. Hugenholtz
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 2039–2051, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-2039-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-2039-2019, 2019
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We performed pre-disaster 3-D mapping with a drone in downtown Victoria, BC, Canada. This was the first drone mapping mission over a Canadian city approved by Canada’s aviation authority. We were legally constrained to using a specific drone. The goal was to assess the quality of the 3-D map. Results indicate that the spatial accuracies achieved with this drone would allow for sub-meter building collapse detection, but the non-tilting camera was insufficient for mapping buildings in 3-D.
Reza Hassanzadeh, Mehdi Honarmand, Mahdieh Hossienjani Zadeh, and Farzin Naseri
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 1989–2009, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1989-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1989-2019, 2019
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This paper proposes a new model for evaluating local seismic amplification susceptibility by considering direct characteristics of influencing criteria and dealing with uncertainty of modelling through production of fuzzy membership functions and GIS. This model helps planners and decision makers easily produce local seismic amplification susceptibility to be incorporated in designing development plans of urban areas and to evaluate safety measures of existing infrastructure.
Salvador Gil-Guirado, Alfredo Pérez-Morales, and Francisco Lopez-Martinez
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 1955–1971, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1955-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1955-2019, 2019
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In this study the SMC-Flood database for the municipalities of the Mediterranean coast of mainland Spain is presented. This database has enabled the reconstruction of 3008 cases of flooding on a municipal scale between 1960 and 2015. The data analysis reveals a growing trend in the frequency and area affected by flood cases. The main novelty lies in the fact that we have detected a clear latitudinal gradient of growing intensity and severity of flood cases with a north–south direction.
Juan José Martín-Sotoca, Antonio Saa-Requejo, Rubén Moratiel, Nicolas Dalezios, Ioannis Faraslis, and Ana María Tarquis
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 1685–1702, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1685-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1685-2019, 2019
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Vegetation indices based on satellite images, such as the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), have been used for damaged pasture insurance. The occurrence of damage is usually defined by NDVI thresholds mainly based on normal statistics. In this work a pasture area in Spain was delimited by MODIS images. A statistical analysis of NDVI was applied to search for alternative distributions. Results show that generalized extreme value distributions present a better fit than normal ones.
Hongyan Chen, Gengxing Zhao, Yuhuan Li, Danyang Wang, and Ying Ma
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 1499–1508, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1499-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1499-2019, 2019
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Using Landsat data, the inversion model of soil salt content (SSC) for different seasons was determined in the Kenli District in the Yellow River Delta region of China. The SSC exhibited a gradual increasing trend from the southwest to northeast. The SSC accumulated in spring, decreased in summer, increased in autumn and reached its peak at the the end of winter. The results can provide data for the control of soil salt hazards and utilization of saline–alkali soil.
Jérome Faillettaz, Martin Funk, Jan Beutel, and Andreas Vieli
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 1399–1413, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1399-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1399-2019, 2019
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We developed a new strategy for real-time early warning of
gravity-driven slope failures (such as landslides, rockfalls, glacier break-off, etc.). This method enables us to investigate natural slope stability based on continuous monitoring and interpretation of seismic waves generated by the potential instability. Thanks to a pilot experiment, we detected typical patterns of precursory events prior to slide events, demonstrating the potential of this method for real-word applications.
Yue Li, Shi Qi, Bin Liang, Junming Ma, Baihan Cheng, Cong Ma, Yidan Qiu, and Qinyan Chen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 757–774, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-757-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-757-2019, 2019
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This study fully considers the characteristics of expressways in mountain areas. The catchment area is considered a prediction unit. The method of slope division is improved, and a method of improving the parameters in the model is proposed. Comparison and analysis with actual observation data show that the method of soil and water loss prediction adopted in this paper has less error and higher prediction accuracy than other models and can satisfy prediction requirements.
Huseyin Duman and Dogan Ugur Sanli
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 571–582, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-571-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-571-2019, 2019
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Research has been done to assess the performance of relative positioning over long baseline lengths in determining the accuracy of site velocities from GPS campaign measurements. GPS campaign measurements were generated from the IGS data, and the results were compared with PPP-derived findings. A major outcome of this study is that relative positioning over long baseline lengths produces similar accuracies to PPP. A newly proposed refinement method also improves the available PPP accuracy.
Alvaro Hofflinger, Marcelo A. Somos-Valenzuela, and Arturo Vallejos-Romero
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 251–267, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-251-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-251-2019, 2019
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In this work, we propose a novel methodology (ReTSVI) to integrate a social vulnerability index into flood hazard methodologies. ReTSVI combines a series of modules that are pieces of information that interact during an evacuation, such as evacuation rate curves, mobilization, inundation models, and social vulnerability indexes, to create an integrated map of the evacuation rate in a given location.
Paulo Victor N. Araújo, Venerando E. Amaro, Robert M. Silva, and Alexandre B. Lopes
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 237–250, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-237-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-237-2019, 2019
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This paper aims to map flood hazard areas under the influence of the Uruguay River, Itaqui (southern Brazil), using a calibrated digital elevation model (DEM), historic river level data and geoprocessing techniques. Assessment of the areas that can potentially be flooded can help to reduce the negative impact of flood events by supporting the process of land-use planning in areas exposed to flood hazards.
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arXiv:1703.06345, https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.1703.06345, 2017. a
Short summary
The impact of drought may vary in a given region depending on whether it is dominated by trees, grasslands, or croplands. The differences in impact can also be the agro-ecological zones within the region. This paper proposes a hierarchical Bayesian model (HBM) for forecasting vegetation condition in spatially diverse areas. Compared to a non-hierarchical model, the HBM proved to be a more natural method for forecasting drought in areas with different land covers and
agro-ecological zones.
The impact of drought may vary in a given region depending on whether it is dominated by trees,...
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