Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
NHESS
Articles | Volume 22, issue 8
Articles | Volume 22, issue 8
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2725-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2725-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 22, issue 8
Research article
 | 
23 Aug 2022
Research article |  | 23 Aug 2022

A dynamic hierarchical Bayesian approach for forecasting vegetation condition

Edward E. Salakpi, Peter D. Hurley, James M. Muthoka, Andrew Bowell, Seb Oliver, and Pedram Rowhani

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Short summary
The impact of drought may vary in a given region depending on whether it is dominated by trees, grasslands, or croplands. The differences in impact can also be the agro-ecological zones within the region. This paper proposes a hierarchical Bayesian model (HBM) for forecasting vegetation condition in spatially diverse areas. Compared to a non-hierarchical model, the HBM proved to be a more natural method for forecasting drought in areas with different land covers and agro-ecological zones.
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