Articles | Volume 21, issue 8
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2447–2460, 2021
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2447-2021
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2447–2460, 2021
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2447-2021

Research article 20 Aug 2021

Research article | 20 Aug 2021

Quantifying location error to define uncertainty in volcanic mass flow hazard simulations

Stuart R. Mead et al.

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Cited articles

Aguilera, E., Pareschi, M. T., Rosi, M., and Zanchetta, G.: Risk from Lahars in the Northern Valleys of Cotopaxi Volcano (Ecuador), Nat. Hazards, 33, 161–189, https://doi.org/10.1023/B:NHAZ.0000037037.03155.23, 2004. 
Calder, E., Wagner, K., and Ogburn, S. E.: Volcanic hazard maps, in: Global Volcanic Hazards and Risk, edited by: Loughlin, S. C., Sparks, R. S. J., Brown, S. K., Jenkins, S. F., and Vye-Brown, C., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9781316276273.022, 2015. 
Charbonnier, S. J., Germa, A., Connor, C. B., Gertisser, R., Preece, K., Komorowski, J. C., Lavigne, F., Dixon, T., and Connor, L.: Evaluation of the impact of the 2010 pyroclastic density currents at Merapi volcano from high-resolution satellite imagery, field investigations and numerical simulations, J. Volcanol. Geoth. Res., 261, 295–315, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jvolgeores.2012.12.021, 2013. 
Charbonnier, S. J., Connor, C. B., Connor, L. J., Sheridan, M. F., Oliva Hernández, J. P., and Richardson, J. A.: Modeling the October 2005 lahars at Panabaj (Guatemala), Bull. Volcanol., 80, 4, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00445-017-1169-x, 2017. 
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Computer simulations can be used to estimate the flow path and inundation of volcanic mass flows; however, their accuracy needs to be appropriately measured and handled in order to determine hazard zones. This paper presents an approach to simulation accuracy assessment and hazard zonation with a volcanic debris avalanche as the benchmark. This method helped to identify and support key findings about errors in mass flow simulations, as well as potential end-use cases for hazard zonation.
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