Articles | Volume 21, issue 3
Review article 26 Mar 2021
Review article | 26 Mar 2021
Review article: Towards a context-driven research: a state-of-the-art review of resilience research on climate change
Ringo Ossewaarde et al.
No articles found.
Seyedabdolhossein Mehvar, Kathelijne Wijnberg, Bas Borsje, Norman Kerle, Jan Maarten Schraagen, Joanne Vinke-de Kruijf, Karst Geurs, Andreas Hartmann, Rick Hogeboom, and Suzanne Hulscher
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1383–1407,Short summary
This review synthesizes and complements existing knowledge in designing resilient vital infrastructure systems (VIS). Results from a systematic literature review indicate that (i) VIS are still being built without taking resilience explicitly into account and (ii) measures to enhance the resilience of VIS have not been widely applied in practice. The main pressing topic to address is the integration of the combined social, ecological, and technical resilience of these systems.
Chiu H. Cheng, Jaco C. de Smit, Greg S. Fivash, Suzanne J. M. H. Hulscher, Bas W. Borsje, and Karline Soetaert
Earth Surf. Dynam. Discuss.,
Revised manuscript accepted for ESurfShort summary
Shells are biogenic particles that are widespread throughout natural sandy environments and can affect the bed roughness and seabed erodibility. As studies are presently lacking, we experimentally measured ripple formation and migration using natural sand with increasing volumes of shell material under unidirectional flow in a racetrack flume. We show that shells expedite the onset of sediment transport, reduce ripple dimensions and slow their migration rate.
Zhan Hu, Pim W. J. M. Willemsen, Bas W. Borsje, Chen Wang, Heng Wang, Daphne van der Wal, Zhenchang Zhu, Bas Oteman, Vincent Vuik, Ben Evans, Iris Möller, Jean-Philippe Belliard, Alexander Van Braeckel, Stijn Temmerman, and Tjeerd J. Bouma
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 13, 405–416,Short summary
Erosion and accretion processes govern the ecogeomorphic evolution of intertidal (salt marsh and tidal flat) ecosystems and hence substantially affect their valuable ecosystem services. By applying a novel sensor, we obtained unique high-resolution daily bed-level change datasets from 10 marsh–mudflat sites in northwestern Europe. This dataset has revealed diverse spatial bed-level change patterns over daily to seasonal scales, which are valuable to theoretical and model development.
Koen D. Berends, Menno W. Straatsma, Jord J. Warmink, and Suzanne J. M. H. Hulscher
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 1737–1753,Short summary
River flooding is a major safety concern. Sophisticated models are used to design ways to decrease flood risk, but until recently it was not feasible to calculate how uncertain these model predictions are. Using a new approach, we have now quantified the uncertainty of 12 interventions along the River Waal. Results show significant but not problematically high uncertainty. We demonstrate that the choice between interventions can be different when uncertainty is taken into account.
J. J. Warmink
Adv. Geosci., 39, 115–121,
Related subject area
Risk Assessment, Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies, Socioeconomic and Management AspectsFlood and drought risk assessment for agricultural areas (Tagus Estuary, Portugal)An inventory of Alpine drought impact reports to explore past droughts in a mountain regionThe potential of machine learning for weather index insuranceIndirect flood impacts and cascade risk across interdependent linear infrastructuresPredicting social and health vulnerability to floods in BangladeshResidential flood loss estimated from Bayesian multilevel modelsReview article: A systematic review and future prospects of flood vulnerability indicesInteracting effects of land-use change and natural hazards on rice agriculture in the Mekong and Red River deltas in VietnamEstablishment and characteristics analysis of a crop–drought vulnerability curve: a case study of European winter wheatLongitudinal survey data for diversifying temporal dynamics in flood risk modellingSpatialized flood resilience measurement in rapidly urbanized coastal areas with a complex semi-arid environment in northern MoroccoStrategies for adapting to hazards and environmental inequalities in coastal urban areas: what kind of resilience for these territories?Brief communication: Appropriate messaging is critical for effective earthquake early warning systemsAre OpenStreetMap building data useful for flood vulnerability modelling?Assessing and zoning of typhoon storm surge risk with a geographic information system (GIS) technique: a case study of the coastal area of HuizhouRegional tropical cyclone impact functions for globally consistent risk assessmentsComparing an insurer's perspective on building damages with modelled damages from pan-European winter windstorm event sets: a case study from Zurich, SwitzerlandProbabilistic characterisation of coastal storm-induced risks using Bayesian networksA glimpse into the future of exposure and vulnerabilities in cities? Modelling of residential location choice of urban population with random forestInvited perspectives: Building sustainable and resilient communities – recommended actions for natural hazard scientistsDesign of parametric risk transfer solutions for volcanic eruptions: an application to Japanese volcanoesMulti-hazard risk assessment for roads: probabilistic versus deterministic approachesAre interactions important in estimating flood damage to economic entities?Tropical drought risk: estimates combining gridded vulnerability and hazard dataAre flood damage models converging to “reality”? Lessons learnt from a blind testBrief Communication: Simple-INSYDE, development of a new tool for flood damage evaluation from an existing synthetic modelA novel approach to assessing nuisance risk from seismicity induced by UK shale gas development, with implications for future policy designRapid flood risk screening model for compound flood events in Beira, MozambiqueTrends in social vulnerability to storm surges in Shenzhen, ChinaExploring the changes in risk perceptions and adaptation behaviors based on various socioeconomic characteristics before and after earthquake disasters – a case study in TaiwanAnthropogenic climate change and glacier lake outburst flood risk: local and global drivers and responsibilities for the case of lake Palcacocha, PeruFlood vulnerability and risk assessment of urban traditional buildings in a heritage district of Kuala Lumpur, MalaysiaA generic physical vulnerability model for floods: review and concept for data-scarce regionsNatural hazard impacts on transport infrastructure in RussiaSpatial seismic hazard variation and adaptive sampling of portfolio location uncertainty in probabilistic seismic risk analysisInduced seismicity risk analysis of the hydraulic stimulation of a geothermal well on Geldinganes, IcelandEnhancing the operational value of snowpack models with visualization design principlesNetwork-risk: an open GIS toolbox for estimating the implications of transportation network damage due to natural hazards, tested for Bucharest, RomaniaA multi-hazard risk prioritisation framework for cultural heritage assetsModeling of E. coli distribution for hazard assessment of bathing waters affected by combined sewer overflowsMonitoring of the reconstruction process in a high mountainous area affected by a major earthquake and subsequent hazardsReview article: Natural hazard risk assessments at the global scaleA spatial decision support system for enhancing resilience to floods: bridging resilience modelling and geovisualization techniquesGlobal-scale benefit–cost analysis of coastal flood adaptation to different flood risk drivers using structural measuresFlash floods versus river floods – a comparison of psychological impacts and implications for precautionary behaviourUrban pluvial flood risk assessment – data resolution and spatial scale when developing screening approaches on the microscaleLinking drought indices to impacts to support drought risk assessment in Liaoning province, ChinaExamining the sustainability and development challenge in agricultural-forest frontiers of the Amazon Basin through the eyes of localsGlobal-scale drought risk assessment for agricultural systemsReview article: Review of fragility analyses for major building types in China with new implications for intensity–PGA relation development
Paula Freire, Marta Rodrigues, André B. Fortunato, and Alberto Freitas
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2503–2521,Short summary
This paper presents a risk assessment approach addressing the two main natural risks that affect agricultural estuarine lowlands: the scarcity of freshwater for irrigation and marine submersion. The approach is applied to an important agricultural area located in the Tagus Estuary (Portugal). Results show that the approach is appropriate to support risk owners in taking actions to mitigate the risk mainly when the possible impact of climate change in risk levels is considered.
Ruth Stephan, Mathilde Erfurt, Stefano Terzi, Maja Žun, Boštjan Kristan, Klaus Haslinger, and Kerstin Stahl
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2485–2501,Short summary
The Alpine Drought Impact report Inventory (EDIIALPS) archives drought impact reports across the European Alpine region with an increasing number of impacts over time. The most affected sectors are agriculture and livestock farming and public water supply, for which management strategies are essential for future climate regimes. We show spatial heterogeneity and seasonal differences between the impacted sectors and between impacts triggered by soil moisture drought and hydrological drought.
Luigi Cesarini, Rui Figueiredo, Beatrice Monteleone, and Mario L. V. Martina
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2379–2405,Short summary
Weather index insurance is an innovative program used to manage the risk associated with natural disasters, providing instantaneous financial support to the insured party. This paper proposes a methodology that exploits the power of machine learning to identify extreme events for which a payout from the insurance could be delivered. The improvements achieved using these algorithms are an encouraging step forward in the promotion and implementation of this insurance instrument.
Chiara Arrighi, Maria Pregnolato, and Fabio Castelli
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1955–1969,Short summary
Floods may affect critical infrastructure which provides essential services to people. We analyse the impact of floods on road networks and water supply systems, and we investigate how cascade effects propagate if interdependencies among networks are not considered. The analysis shows that if preparedness plans include information on accessibility to key sections of water supply plants, less people suffer from water shortage in case of flood. The method is tested in the city of Florence (Italy).
Donghoon Lee, Hassan Ahmadul, Jonathan Patz, and Paul Block
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1807–1823,Short summary
This article assesses the thematic and composite social and health vulnerability of Bangladesh to floods. Tailored vulnerability, weighted by flood forecast and satellite inundation, can be used to predict the massive impacts of the August 2017 flood event. This approach has several advantages and practical implications, including the potential to promote targeted and coordinated disaster management and health practices.
Guilherme S. Mohor, Annegret H. Thieken, and Oliver Korup
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1599–1614,Short summary
We explored differences in the damaging process across different flood types, regions within Germany, and six flood events through a numerical model in which the groups can learn from each other. Differences were found mostly across flood types, indicating the importance of identifying them, but there is great overlap across regions and flood events, indicating either that socioeconomic or temporal information was not well represented or that they are in fact less different within our cases.
Luana Lavagnoli Moreira, Mariana Madruga de Brito, and Masato Kobiyama
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1513–1530,Short summary
The review of flood vulnerability indices revealed that (1) temporal dynamic aspects were often disregarded, (2) coping and adaptive capacity indicators were frequently ignored, as obtaining these data demand time and effort, and (3) most studies neither applied sensitivity (90.5 %) or uncertainty analyses (96.8 %) nor validated the results (86.3 %). The study highlights the importance of addressing these gaps to produce scientifically rigorous and comparable research.
Kai Wan Yuen, Tang Thi Hanh, Vu Duong Quynh, Adam D. Switzer, Paul Teng, and Janice Ser Huay Lee
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1473–1493,Short summary
We used flow diagrams to represent the ways in which anthropogenic land use and natural hazards have affected rice production in the two mega-deltas of Vietnam. Anthropogenic developments meant to improve productivity may create negative feedbacks on rice production and quality. Natural hazards further amplify problems created by human activities. A systems-thinking approach can yield nuanced perspectives for tackling environmental challenges.
Yanshen Wu, Hao Guo, Anyu Zhang, and Jing'ai Wang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1209–1228,Short summary
To improve the quantitative degree of spatial analysis of vulnerability, we construct grid-scale drought vulnerability curves of European winter wheat based on model simulation, and we discuss their spatial differences through feature points and clustering features. These vulnerability curves show zonal differences, which can be divided into five loss types, and the vulnerability increases from south to north. The results can provide guidance for regionalized risk management.
Elena Mondino, Anna Scolobig, Marco Borga, and Giuliano Di Baldassarre
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss.,
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESSShort summary
Survey data collected over time can provide new insights on how different people respond to floods and can be used in models to study the complex coevolution of human-water systems. We present two methods to collect such data and we compare the respective results. Risk awareness decreases only for women, while preparedness takes different trajectories depending on the damage suffered. These results support a more diverse representation of society in flood risk modelling and risk management.
Narjiss Satour, Otmane Raji, Nabil El Moçayd, Ilias Kacimi, and Nadia Kassou
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1101–1118,
Nathalie Long, Pierre Cornut, and Virginia Kolb
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1087–1100,Short summary
Climate change is leading to an increase in extreme events and enforces the development of adaptation strategies to face coastal risk. These strategies modify the inequalities barely considered during the decision-making process and question the resilience of these territories. On the French Atlantic coast, the study reveals that the
managed retreatstrategy seems the most sustainable over time, while the
holding the coastlinestrategy reinforces inequalities and costs for the whole society.
Meng Zhang, Xue Qiao, Barnabas C. Seyler, Baofeng Di, Yuan Wang, and Ya Tang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss.,
Preprint under review for NHESSShort summary
Earthquake early warning system (EEWS) can help reduce losses but its effectiveness depends on adequate public's perception and understanding of EEWS. This study examined the performance of the EEWS in China's Sichuan Province during the 2019 Changning Earthquake. We found a big gap existed between the EEWS's message, the public's perception of it, and their response. The study highlights the importance of gauging EEWS alert effectiveness and public participation for long-term resiliency.
Marco Cerri, Max Steinhausen, Heidi Kreibich, and Kai Schröter
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 643–662,Short summary
Effective flood management requires information about the potential consequences of flooding. We show how openly accessible data from OpenStreetMap can support the estimation of flood damage for residential buildings. Working with methods of machine learning, the building geometry is used to predict flood damage in combination with information about inundation depth. Our approach makes it easier to transfer models to regions where no detailed data of flood impacts have been observed yet.
Si Wang, Lin Mu, Zhenfeng Yao, Jia Gao, Enjin Zhao, and Lizhe Wang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 439–462,Short summary
The study provides a comprehensive assessment and zonation of hazard, vulnerability, and risk of storm surge caused by the designed typhoon scenarios in the coastal area of Huizhou. The risk maps can help decision-makers to develop evacuation strategies to minimize civilian casualties. The risk analysis can be utilized to identify risk regions to reduce economic losses. The proposed methodology and procedure can be applied to any coastal city in China for making risk assessments.
Samuel Eberenz, Samuel Lüthi, and David N. Bresch
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 393–415,Short summary
Asset damage caused by tropical cyclones is often computed based on impact functions mapping wind speed to damage. However, a lack of regional impact functions can lead to a substantial bias in tropical cyclone risk estimates. Here, we present regionally calibrated impact functions, as well as global risk estimates. Our results are relevant for researchers, model developers, and practitioners in the context of global risk assessments, climate change adaptation, and physical risk disclosure.
Christoph Welker, Thomas Röösli, and David N. Bresch
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 279–299,Short summary
How representative are local building insurers' claims to assess winter windstorm risk? In our case study of Zurich, we use a risk model for windstorm building damages and compare three different inputs: insurance claims and historical and probabilistic windstorm datasets. We find that long-term risk is more robustly assessed based on windstorm datasets than on claims data only. Our open-access method allows European building insurers to complement their risk assessment with modelling results.
Marc Sanuy and Jose A. Jiménez
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 219–238,
Sebastian Scheuer, Dagmar Haase, Annegret Haase, Manuel Wolff, and Thilo Wellmann
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 203–217,Short summary
The choice of residential location is one of the drivers shaping risks in cities. We model likely outcomes of this decision-making process for distinct socioeconomic groups in the city of Leipzig, Germany, using random forests and geostatistical methods. In so doing, we uncover hot spots and cold spots that may indicate spatial patterns and trends in exposure and vulnerabilities of urban population, to shed light on how residential location choice affects these risk components as a process.
Joel C. Gill, Faith E. Taylor, Melanie J. Duncan, Solmaz Mohadjer, Mirianna Budimir, Hassan Mdala, and Vera Bukachi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 187–202,Short summary
This paper draws on the experiences of seven early career scientists, in different sectors and contexts, to explore the improved integration of natural hazard science into broader efforts to reduce the likelihood and impacts of disasters. We include recommendations for natural hazard scientists, to improve education, training, and research design and to strengthen institutional, financial, and policy actions. We hope to provoke discussion and catalyse changes that will help reduce disaster risk.
Delioma Oramas-Dorta, Giulio Tirabassi, Guillermo Franco, and Christina Magill
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 99–113,Short summary
Large volcanic eruptions are rare events; however, they may cause significant economic losses. This work explores a specific type of insurance (parametric insurance) applied to such events. Unlike traditional insurance where payouts occur after often lengthy loss assessments, this type of insurance makes automatic and prompt payments on the basis of the eruption attaining threshold values for objective and easily measurable characteristics (height and direction of the eruption column).
Stefan Oberndorfer, Philip Sander, and Sven Fuchs
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 3135–3160,Short summary
The article provides a comparison of a standard (deterministic) risk assessment approach for roads exposed to a multi-hazard environment with a probabilistic risk analysis method to show the potential bias in the results. A probabilistic approach enables the quantification of epistemic uncertainty and uses probability distributions to characterize data uncertainty of the input variables, while a deterministic computation uses single values with discrete values without uncertainty representation.
David Nortes Martínez, Frédéric Grelot, Pauline Brémond, Stefano Farolfi, and Juliette Rouchier
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss.,
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESSShort summary
Estimating flood damage, although crucial for assessing flood risk and for designing mitigation policies, continues to face numerous challenges, notably the assessment of indirect damage. We focus on flood damage induced by the interactions between economic activities. By modeling the production processes of a cooperative winemaking system, we show that these interactions are important, depending on their spatial and temporal characteristics.
Alexandra Nauditt, Kerstin Stahl, Erasmo Rodríguez, Christian Birkel, Rosa Maria Formiga-Johnsson, Kallio Marko, Hamish Hann, Lars Ribbe, Oscar M. Baez-Villanueva, and Joschka Thurner
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss.,
Manuscript not accepted for further reviewShort summary
Recurrent droughts are causing severe damages to tropical countries. We used gridded drought hazard and vulnerability data sets to map drought risk in four mesoscale rural tropical study regions in Latin America and Vietnam/Cambodia. Our risk maps clearly identified drought risk hotspots and displayed spatial and sector-wise distribution of hazard and vulnerability. As results were confirmed by local stakeholders our approach provides relevant information for drought managers in the Tropics.
Daniela Molinari, Anna Rita Scorzini, Chiara Arrighi, Francesca Carisi, Fabio Castelli, Alessio Domeneghetti, Alice Gallazzi, Marta Galliani, Frédéric Grelot, Patric Kellermann, Heidi Kreibich, Guilherme S. Mohor, Markus Mosimann, Stephanie Natho, Claire Richert, Kai Schroeter, Annegret H. Thieken, Andreas Paul Zischg, and Francesco Ballio
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2997–3017,Short summary
Flood risk management requires a realistic estimation of flood losses. However, the capacity of available flood damage models to depict real damages is questionable. With a joint effort of eight research groups, the objective of this study was to compare the performances of nine models for the estimation of flood damage to buildings. The comparison provided more objective insights on the transferability of the models and on the reliability of their estimations.
Marta Galliani, Daniela Molinari, and Francesco Ballio
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2937–2941,Short summary
INSYDE is a multivariable synthetic model for flood damage assessment of dwellings. The analysis and use of this model highlighted some weaknesses, linked to its complexity, that can undermine its usability and correct implementation. This study proposes a simplified version of INSYDE which maintains its multivariable and synthetic nature but has simpler mathematical formulations permitting an easier use and a direct analysis of the relation between damage and its explanatory variables.
Gemma Cremen and Maximilian J. Werner
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2701–2719,Short summary
We develop a framework that links the volume of hydraulic fracturing fluid injected during shale gas exploration with the likelihood that resulting seismicity causes a nuisance to nearby populations. We apply the framework to a shale gas site in England and find that the potential of a given injected volume to produce nuisance ground motions is especially sensitive to assumptions about the amount of seismic energy released during operations. The work can inform policy on shale gas exploration.
Erik C. van Berchum, Mathijs van Ledden, Jos S. Timmermans, Jan H. Kwakkel, and Sebastiaan N. Jonkman
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2633–2646,Short summary
Flood risk management is especially complicated in coastal cities. The complexity of multiple flood hazards in a rapidly changing urban environment leads to a situation with many different potential measures and future scenarios. This research demonstrates a new model capable of quickly simulating flood impact and comparing many different strategies. This is applied to the city of Beira, where it was able to provide new insights into the local flood risk and potential strategies.
Huaming Yu, Yuhang Shen, Ryan M. Kelly, Xin Qi, Kejian Wu, Songlin Li, Haiqing Yu, and Xianwen Bao
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2447–2462,Short summary
This study establishes an indicator system for social vulnerability evaluation of storm surges for coastal cities. The indicator system is applied to Shenzhen, China, and socioeconomic impacts are discovered in the results. Exposure, sensitivity, and resilience all show an increasing trend from 1986 to 2016, as resilience accounts for the largest increase and is connected to a decreasing social vulnerability trend.
Tzu-Ling Chen, Tzu-Yuan Chao, and Hao-Teng Cheng
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2433–2446,Short summary
Although disaster experience does indeed play an important role in helping people become aware of earthquake risk, disaster experience does not necessarily increase people’s willingness to retrofit their houses. People with higher education and certain occupations represent those who might have more available resources, and therefore they might become more willing to prepare for and respond to disasters.
Christian Huggel, Mark Carey, Adam Emmer, Holger Frey, Noah Walker-Crawford, and Ivo Wallimann-Helmer
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2175–2193,Short summary
There is increasing interest and need to analyze the contribution of anthropogenic climate change to negative impacts of climate change. We study the case of glacial lake Palcacocha in Peru, which poses a significant flood risk to the city of Huaraz. We found that greenhouse gas emissions; strong urbanization processes without appropriate land use planning; and social, cultural, political, and institutional factors all contribute to the existing flood risk.
Dina D'Ayala, Kai Wang, Yuan Yan, Helen Smith, Ashleigh Massam, Valeriya Filipova, and Joy Jacqueline Pereira
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2221–2241,Short summary
A localized empirical model consisting of multilevel parameters has been built to evaluate the flood vulnerability of residential buildings in a heritage community of Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia. A new economic loss model is developed to quantify the flood risk in terms of replacement cost, taking into account both specific vulnerability and a normalized depth–damage ratio function. The findings provide multiscale flood-resistant strategies for the protection of individual residential buildings.
Mark Bawa Malgwi, Sven Fuchs, and Margreth Keiler
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2067–2090,Short summary
Mitigation planning and economic loss assessment generally rely on flood damage prediction models. However, unavailability of empirical data has limited the use of such models in data-scarce areas. This paper combines the vulnerability indicator and damage grade approach to develop a conceptual framework for predicting building damage in data-scarce regions. The framework can be implemented using only expert knowledge and facilitates transferability of flood damage models in data-scarce areas.
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1969–1983,Short summary
Using the information of the author's database, contributions of natural hazards and adverse weather to occurrences of different types of transport accidents and traffic disruptions including road, railway, air, and water transport were revealed. Regional differences in the risk of transport accidents and traffic disruptions caused by adverse natural impacts between Russian federal regions were found. The resulting maps were created and analyzed. Regions most at risk were identified.
Christoph Scheingraber and Martin Käser
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1903–1918,Short summary
Probabilistic seismic risk analysis is widely used in the insurance industry to model losses to insured portfolios by earthquake events. Risk items are often only known to be located within an administrative geographical zone, but precise coordinates remain unknown to the modeler. We analyze spatial seismic hazard and loss rate variation inside administrative zones in western Indonesia. Building upon this, we present a novel framework for efficient treatment of portfolio location uncertainty.
Marco Broccardo, Arnaud Mignan, Francesco Grigoli, Dimitrios Karvounis, Antonio Pio Rinaldi, Laurentiu Danciu, Hannes Hofmann, Claus Milkereit, Torsten Dahm, Günter Zimmermann, Vala Hjörleifsdóttir, and Stefan Wiemer
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1573–1593,Short summary
This study presents a first-of-its-kind pre-drilling probabilistic induced seismic risk analysis for the Geldinganes (Iceland) deep-hydraulic stimulation. The results of the assessment indicate that the individual risk within a radius of 2 km around the injection point is below the safety limits. However, the analysis is affected by a large variability due to the presence of pre-drilling deep uncertainties. This suggests the need for online risk updating during the stimulation.
Simon Horton, Stan Nowak, and Pascal Haegeli
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1557–1572,Short summary
Numeric snowpack models currently offer limited value to operational avalanche forecasters. To improve the relevance and interpretability of model data, we introduce and discuss visualization principles that map model data into visual representations that can inform avalanche hazard assessments.
Dragos Toma-Danila, Iuliana Armas, and Alexandru Tiganescu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1421–1439,Short summary
Natural hazards have an increasing impact on transportation networks. In order to analyze it we developed Network-risk – an open toolbox for ArcGIS. The toolbox links input data such as network datasets (also OpenStreetMap – OSM – data), traffic values or segments which can be affected, determining the difficulty to reach an area and enabling evaluation of socioeconomic implications. By testing Network-risk for Bucharest we show areas difficult to reach by emergency units in earthquakes.
Giacomo Sevieri, Carmine Galasso, Dina D'Ayala, Richard De Jesus, Andres Oreta, Mary Earl Daryl A. Grio, and Rhodella Ibabao
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1391–1414,Short summary
Multi-hazard risk assessment of cultural heritage assets is of primary importance in natural-hazard-prone areas, particularly for the prioritization of disaster risk reduction and resilience-enhancing strategies. This paper introduces a multi-hazard risk prioritisation framework specifically developed for cultural heritage assets. The proposed framework relies on a multi-level rapid-visual-survey form for the multi-hazard data collection and risk prioritization of case-study assets.
Luca Locatelli, Beniamino Russo, Alejandro Acero Oliete, Juan Carlos Sánchez Catalán, Eduardo Martínez-Gomariz, and Montse Martínez
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1219–1232,Short summary
Bathing water quality at public beaches is often compromised by the presence of urban sewer systems that usually discharge, mostly during rainfalls, untreated sewer water into lakes, rivers or seas. In this study we analyzed and quantified the impact of sewer discharges into the sea of a large Spanish city. This study provides a useful idea for local water managers and for people bathing in these areas about how long and how much an urban sewer system can affect the seawater quality.
Chenxiao Tang, Xinlei Liu, Yinghua Cai, Cees Van Westen, Yu Yang, Hai Tang, Chengzhang Yang, and Chuan Tang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1163–1186,Short summary
Recovering from major earthquakes is a challenge due to a destablized environment. Over 11 years, we monitored a region hit by the Wenchuan earthquake, finding the loss caused by postseismic hazards was more than that caused by the earthquake. The main reason was a rush in reconstruction without proper hazard and risk assessment. It was concluded that postseismic recovery should consider not only spatial but also temporal dynamics of hazards as well as possible interaction among hazards.
Philip J. Ward, Veit Blauhut, Nadia Bloemendaal, James E. Daniell, Marleen C. de Ruiter, Melanie J. Duncan, Robert Emberson, Susanna F. Jenkins, Dalia Kirschbaum, Michael Kunz, Susanna Mohr, Sanne Muis, Graeme A. Riddell, Andreas Schäfer, Thomas Stanley, Ted I. E. Veldkamp, and Hessel C. Winsemius
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1069–1096,Short summary
We review the scientific literature on natural hazard risk assessments at the global scale. In doing so, we examine similarities and differences between the approaches taken across the different hazards and identify potential ways in which different hazard communities can learn from each other. Finally, we discuss opportunities for learning from methods and approaches being developed and applied to assess natural hazard risks at more continental or regional scales.
Charlotte Heinzlef, Vincent Becue, and Damien Serre
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1049–1068,Short summary
The objective of this article is to propose a spatial decision support tool based on geovisualization techniques and a resilience assessment method for flood risk management. The methodology proposed integrates decision-making by identifying characteristics of urban resilience to facilitate its understanding with a visual tool. Results demonstrate a way to operationalize the concept of resilience at a local scale, integrating local stakeholders into a participative process.
Timothy Tiggeloven, Hans de Moel, Hessel C. Winsemius, Dirk Eilander, Gilles Erkens, Eskedar Gebremedhin, Andres Diaz Loaiza, Samantha Kuzma, Tianyi Luo, Charles Iceland, Arno Bouwman, Jolien van Huijstee, Willem Ligtvoet, and Philip J. Ward
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1025–1044,Short summary
We present a framework to evaluate the benefits and costs of coastal adaptation through dikes to reduce future flood risk. If no adaptation takes place, we find that global coastal flood risk increases 150-fold by 2080, with sea-level rise contributing the most. Moreover, 15 countries account for 90 % of this increase; that adaptation shows high potential to cost-effectively reduce flood risk. The results will be integrated into the Aqueduct Global Flood Analyzer web tool.
Jonas Laudan, Gert Zöller, and Annegret H. Thieken
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 999–1023,Short summary
The paper focuses on psychological impacts of river floods and flash floods on affected individuals. Since the connection between psychological characteristics and protection motivation is not yet fully understood, potential coherences are investigated with regard to both flood types. As a main result, the frequency of remembering an event seems to be positively connected to a greater willingness to protect oneself, especially if affected by a weaker flood event.
Roland Löwe and Karsten Arnbjerg-Nielsen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 981–997,Short summary
To consider potential future urban developments in pluvial flood risk assessment, we develop empirical relationships for imperviousness and flood damage based on an analysis of existing urban characteristics. Results suggest that (1) data resolutions must be carefully selected, (2) there are lower limits for the spatial scale at which predictions can be generated, and (3) depth-dependent damage estimates are challenging to reproduce empirically and can be vulnerable to simulation artifacts.
Yaxu Wang, Juan Lv, Jamie Hannaford, Yicheng Wang, Hongquan Sun, Lucy J. Barker, Miaomiao Ma, Zhicheng Su, and Michael Eastman
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 889–906,Short summary
Due to the specific applicability of drought impact indicators, this study identifies which drought indicators are suitable for characterising drought impacts and the contribution of vulnerability factors. The results show that the relationship varies across different drought impacts and cities; some factors have a strong positive correlation with drought vulnerability. This study can support drought planning work and provide background for the indices used in drought monitoring applications.
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Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 797–813,Short summary
The Amazon rainforest is being destroyed, resulting in negative ecological and social impacts. We explore how stakeholders perceive the causes of the Amazon's degradation in Bolivia and Brazil and develop a series of scenarios to help strengthen the balance between human development and environmental conservation. The results suggest that the application of governance and well-integrated technical and social reform strategies encourages positive regional changes even under climate change.
Isabel Meza, Stefan Siebert, Petra Döll, Jürgen Kusche, Claudia Herbert, Ehsan Eyshi Rezaei, Hamideh Nouri, Helena Gerdener, Eklavyya Popat, Janna Frischen, Gustavo Naumann, Jürgen V. Vogt, Yvonne Walz, Zita Sebesvari, and Michael Hagenlocher
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 695–712,Short summary
The paper presents, for the first time, a global-scale drought risk assessment for both irrigated and rainfed agricultural systems while considering drought hazard indicators, exposure and expert-weighted vulnerability indicators. We identify global patterns of drought risk and, by disaggregating risk into its underlying components and factors, provide entry points for risk reduction.
Danhua Xin, James Edward Daniell, and Friedemann Wenzel
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Field surveys after major disastrous earthquakes have shown that poor performance of buildings in earthquake-affected areas is the leading cause of human fatalities and economic losses. The evaluation of seismic fragility for existing building stocks has become a crucial issue due to the frequent occurrence of earthquakes in the last decades. This study conducts such a comprehensive review for mainland China and aims to better serve the natural disaster prevention and mitigation cause in China.
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The aim of this paper is to review and structure current developments in resilience research in the field of climate change studies, in terms of the approaches, definitions, models, and commitments that are typical for naturalist and constructivist research and propose a research agenda of topics distilled from current developments in resilience research.
The aim of this paper is to review and structure current developments in resilience research in...