Articles | Volume 20, issue 12
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
A nonstationary analysis for investigating the multiscale variability of extreme surges: case of the English Channel coasts
UMR CNRS 6143 Continental and Coastal Morphodynamics “M2C” University of Rouen, 76821 Mont-Saint-Aignan CEDEX, France
UMR CNRS 6143 Continental and Coastal Morphodynamics “M2C” University of Rouen, 76821 Mont-Saint-Aignan CEDEX, France
French Geological Survey, 3 avenue Claude Guillemin, 45060 Orléans CEDEX, France
UMR CNRS 6143 Continental and Coastal Morphodynamics “M2C” University of Rouen, 76821 Mont-Saint-Aignan CEDEX, France
UMR CNRS 6554 GEOPEN, Caen, France
UMR CNRS 6554 GEOPEN, Caen, France
No articles found.
Vianney Sivelle, Guillaume Cinkus, Naomi Mazzilli, David Labat, Bruno Arfib, Nicolas Massei, Yohann Cousquer, Dominique Bertin, and Hervé Jourde
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss.,
Revised manuscript under review for HESSShort summary
KarstMod consists in a useful tool for the assessment of karst groundwater variability and sensitivity to anthropogenic pressures (e.g. groundwater abstraction). This tools is devoted to promote good practices in hydrological modeling for learning and occasional users. KarstMod requires no programming skills and offers a user friendly interface allowing any user to easily handle hydrological modeling.
Lisa Baulon, Nicolas Massei, Delphine Allier, Matthieu Fournier, and Hélène Bessiere
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 2829–2854,Short summary
Aquifers often act as low-pass filters, dampening high-frequency (intra-annual) and amplifying low-frequency (LFV, multi-annual to multidecadal) variabilities originating from climate variability. By processing groundwater level signals, we show the key role of LFV in the occurrence of groundwater extremes (GWEs). Results highlight how changes in LFV may impact future GWEs as well as the importance of correct representation of LFV in general circulation model outputs for GWE projection.
I. de Gélis, Z. Bessin, P. Letortu, M. Jaud, C. Delacourt, S. Costa, O. Maquaire, R. Davidson, T. Corpetti, and S. Lefèvre
ISPRS Ann. Photogramm. Remote Sens. Spatial Inf. Sci., V-3-2022, 649–656,
Edouard Patault, Valentin Landemaine, Jérôme Ledun, Arnaud Soulignac, Matthieu Fournier, Jean-François Ouvry, Olivier Cerdan, and Benoit Laignel
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 6223–6238,Short summary
The goal of this study was to assess the sediment discharge variability at a water treatment plant (Normandy, France) according to multiple realistic land use scenarios. We developed a new cascade modelling approach and simulations suggested that coupling eco-engineering and best farming practices can significantly reduce the sediment discharge (up to 80 %).
Manuel Fossa, Bastien Dieppois, Nicolas Massei, Matthieu Fournier, Benoit Laignel, and Jean-Philippe Vidal
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 5683–5702,Short summary
Hydro-climate observations (such as precipitation, temperature, and river discharge time series) reveal very complex behavior inherited from complex interactions among the physical processes that drive hydro-climate viability. This study shows how even small perturbations of a physical process can have large consequences on some others. Those interactions vary spatially, thus showing the importance of both temporal and spatial dimensions in better understanding hydro-climate variability.
Nicolas Massei, Daniel G. Kingston, David M. Hannah, Jean-Philippe Vidal, Bastien Dieppois, Manuel Fossa, Andreas Hartmann, David A. Lavers, and Benoit Laignel
Proc. IAHS, 383, 141–149,Short summary
This paper presents recent thoughts by members of EURO-FRIEND Water project 3 “Large-scale-variations in hydrological characteristics” about research needed to characterize and understand large-scale hydrology under global changes. Emphasis is put on the necessary efforts to better understand 1 – the impact of low-frequency climate variability on hydrological trends and extremes, 2 – the role of basin properties on modulating the climate signal producing hydrological responses on the basin scale.
D. James, A. Collin, A. Mury, and S. Costa
Int. Arch. Photogramm. Remote Sens. Spatial Inf. Sci., XLIII-B2-2020, 675–682,
Hans W. Linderholm, Marie Nicolle, Pierre Francus, Konrad Gajewski, Samuli Helama, Atte Korhola, Olga Solomina, Zicheng Yu, Peng Zhang, William J. D'Andrea, Maxime Debret, Dmitry V. Divine, Björn E. Gunnarson, Neil J. Loader, Nicolas Massei, Kristina Seftigen, Elizabeth K. Thomas, Johannes Werner, Sofia Andersson, Annika Berntsson, Tomi P. Luoto, Liisa Nevalainen, Saija Saarni, and Minna Väliranta
Clim. Past, 14, 473–514,Short summary
This paper reviews the current knowledge of Arctic hydroclimate variability during the past 2000 years. We discuss the current state, look into the future, and describe various archives and proxies used to infer past hydroclimate variability. We also provide regional overviews and discuss the potential of furthering our understanding of Arctic hydroclimate in the past. This paper summarises the hydroclimate-related activities of the Arctic 2k group.
Marie Nicolle, Maxime Debret, Nicolas Massei, Christophe Colin, Anne deVernal, Dmitry Divine, Johannes P. Werner, Anne Hormes, Atte Korhola, and Hans W. Linderholm
Clim. Past, 14, 101–116,Short summary
Arctic climate variability for the last 2 millennia has been investigated using statistical and signal analyses from North Atlantic, Siberia and Alaska regionally averaged records. A focus on the last 2 centuries shows a climate variability linked to anthropogenic forcing but also a multidecadal variability likely due to regional natural processes acting on the internal climate system. It is an important issue to understand multidecadal variabilities occurring in the instrumental data.
Manuel Fossa, Marie Nicolle, Nicolas Massei, Matthieu Fournier, and Benoit Laignel
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss.,
Manuscript not accepted for further reviewShort summary
Links between river's discharge and large scale atmospheric and ocean physical processes has long been established by numerous studies. It is critical to identify those links for each river and map the rivers that share the same links. This study introduces a new method that allows classification of France rivers discharge variability according to 4 atmospheric processes that influence them and at 3 different time scales.
C. Lissak, O. Maquaire, J.-P. Malet, F. Lavigne, C. Virmoux, C. Gomez, and R. Davidson
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 1399–1406,Short summary
The objective of this paper is to demonstrate the applicability of ground-penetrating radar (GPR) for monitoring the displacement of permanent slow-moving landslides affected by seasonal kinematic pattern and acceleration events. GPR data are used here to estimate the vertical movement of two rotational slides, since 1982, in combination with other surveying techniques.
M. Fressard, Y. Thiery, and O. Maquaire
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 569–588,
Related subject area
Sea, Ocean and Coastal HazardsThree decades of coastal subsidence in the slow-moving Nice Côte d'Azur Airport area (France) revealed by InSAR (interferometric synthetic-aperture radar): insights into the deformation mechanismModelling extreme water levels using intertidal topography and bathymetry derived from multispectral satellite imagesRegional assessment of extreme sea levels and associated coastal flooding along the German Baltic Sea coastJoint probability analysis of storm surges and waves caused by tropical cyclones for the estimation of protection standard: a case study on the eastern coast of the Leizhou Peninsula and the island of Hainan in ChinaMeteotsunami in the United Kingdom: the hidden hazardA new European coastal flood database for low-medium intensity eventsClimate-induced storminess forces major increases in future storm surge hazard in the South China Sea regionAssessing Typhoon Soulik-induced morphodynamics over the Mokpo coastal region in South Korea based on a geospatial approachBayesian hierarchical modelling of sea-level extremes in the Finnish coastal regionAssessing the coastal hazard of Medicane Ianos through ensemble modellingA predictive equation for wave setup using genetic programmingBayesian extreme value analysis of extreme sea levels along the German Baltic coast using historical informationContribution of solitons to enhanced rogue wave occurrence in shallow depths: a case study in the southern North SeaCompound flood events: analysing the joint occurrence of extreme river discharge events and storm surges in northern and central EuropeImprovements to the detection and analysis of external surges in the North SeaOptimal probabilistic placement of facilities using a surrogate model for 3D tsunami simulationsEnabling dynamic modelling of coastal flooding by defining storm tide hydrographsThe role of preconditioning for extreme storm surges in the western Baltic SeaStorm characteristics influence nitrogen removal in an urban estuarine environmentFreak wave events in 2005–2021: statistics and analysis of favourable wave and wind conditionsProbabilistic projections and past trends of sea level rise in FinlandThe effect of deep ocean currents on ocean- bottom seismometers recordsA wave-resolving modeling study of rip current variability, rip hazard, and swimmer escape strategies on an embayed beach with irregular rip channelsTotal water levels along the South Atlantic Bight during three along-shelf propagating tropical cyclones: relative contributions of storm surge and wave runupAn interdisciplinary agent-based evacuation model: integrating the natural environment, built environment, and social system for community preparedness and resilienceHurricane Irma: an unprecedented event over the last 3700 years? Geomorphological changes and sedimentological record in Codrington Lagoon, BarbudaCoastal extreme sea levels in the Caribbean Sea induced by tropical cyclonesCharacteristics of consecutive tsunamis and resulting tsunami behaviors in southern Taiwan induced by the Hengchun earthquake doublet on 26 December 2006Potential tsunami hazard of the southern Vanuatu subduction zone: tectonics, case study of the Matthew Island tsunami of 10 February 2021 and implication in regional hazard assessmentDetecting anomalous sea-level states in North Sea tide gauge data using an autoassociative neural networkBoulder transport and wave height of a seventeenth century South China Sea tsunami on Penghu Islands, TaiwanObservations of extreme wave runup events on the US Pacific Northwest coastWarning water level determination and its spatial distribution in coastal areas of ChinaHuman displacements from tropical cyclone Idai attributable to climate changeA global open-source database of flood-protection levees on river deltas (openDELvE)Hazard assessment and hydrodynamic, morphodynamic, and hydrological response to Hurricane Gamma and Hurricane Delta on the northern Yucatán PeninsulaEstimating dune erosion at the regional scale using a meta-model based on neural networksSimulation of tsunami induced by a submarine landslide in a glaciomarine margin: the case of Storfjorden LS-1 (southwestern Svalbard Islands)Multi-hazard analysis of flood and tsunamis on the western Mediterranean coast of TurkeyImportance of non-stationary analysis for assessing extreme sea levels under sea level riseWind-wave characteristics and extremes along the Emilia-Romagna coastPartitioning the contributions of dependent offshore forcing conditions in the probabilistic assessment of future coastal floodingIdentification and ranking of subaerial volcanic tsunami hazard sources in Southeast AsiaModelling geographical and built-environment attributes as predictors of human vulnerability during tsunami evacuations: a multi-case-study and paths to improvementModelling the sequential earthquake–tsunami response of coastal road embankment infrastructureHistorical tsunamis of Taiwan in the 18th century: the 1781 Jiateng Harbor flooding and 1782 tsunami eventMultilevel multifidelity Monte Carlo methods for assessing uncertainty in coastal floodingReconstruction of wind and surge of the 1906 storm tide at the German North Sea coastDeveloping a framework for the assessment of current and future flood risk in Venice, ItalyStorm surge hazard over Bengal delta: a probabilistic–deterministic modelling approach
Olivier Cavalié, Frédéric Cappa, and Béatrice Pinel-Puysségur
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3235–3246,Short summary
Coastal areas are fragile ecosystems that face multiple hazards. In this study, we measured the downward motion of the Nice Côte d'Azur Airport (France) that was built on reclaimed area and found that it has subsided from 16 mm yr-1 in the 1990s to 8 mm yr-1 today. A continuous remote monitoring of the platform will provide key data for a detailed investigation of future subsidence maps, and this contribution will help to evaluate the potential failure of part of the airport platform.
Wagner L. L. Costa, Karin R. Bryan, and Giovanni Coco
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3125–3146,Short summary
For predicting flooding events at the coast, topo-bathymetric data are essential. However, elevation data can be unavailable. To tackle this issue, recent efforts have centred on the use of satellite-derived topography (SDT) and bathymetry (SDB). This work is aimed at evaluating their accuracy and use for flooding prediction in enclosed estuaries. Results show that the use of SDT and SDB in numerical modelling can produce similar predictions when compared to the surveyed elevation data.
Joshua Kiesel, Marvin Lorenz, Marcel König, Ulf Gräwe, and Athanasios T. Vafeidis
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2961–2985,Short summary
Among the Baltic Sea littoral states, Germany is anticipated to experience considerable damage as a result of increased coastal flooding due to sea-level rise (SLR). Here we apply a new modelling framework to simulate how flooding along the German Baltic Sea coast may change until 2100 if dikes are not upgraded. We find that the study region is highly exposed to flooding, and we emphasise the importance of current plans to update coastal protection in the future.
Zhang Haixia, Cheng Meng, and Fang Weihua
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2697–2717,Short summary
Simultaneous storm surge and waves can cause great damage due to cascading effects. Quantitative joint probability analysis is critical to determine their optimal protection design values. The joint probability of the surge and wave for the eastern coasts of Leizhou Peninsula and Hainan are estimated with a Gumbel copula based on 62 years of numerically simulated data, and the optimal design values under various joint return periods are derived using the non-linear programming method.
Clare Lewis, Tim Smyth, David Williams, Jess Neumann, and Hannah Cloke
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2531–2546,Short summary
Meteotsunami are globally occurring water waves initiated by atmospheric disturbances. Previous research has suggested that in the UK, meteotsunami are a rare phenomenon and tend to occur in the summer months. This article presents a revised and updated catalogue of 98 meteotsunami that occurred between 1750 and 2022. Results also demonstrate a larger percentage of winter events and a geographical pattern highlighting the
hotspotregions that experience these events.
Marine Le Gal, Tomás Fernández-Montblanc, Enrico Duo, Juan Montes Perez, Paulo Cabrita, Paola Souto Ceccon, Vera Gastal, Paolo Ciavola, and Clara Armaroli
Assessing coastal hazards is crucial to mitigate flooding disasters. In this regard, coastal flood databases are valuable tools. This paper describes a new coastal flood map catalogue covering the entire European coastline, as well as the methodology to build it and its accuracy. The catalogue focuses on frequent extreme events and relies on synthetic scenarios estimated from local storm conditions. Flood prone areas and regions sensitive to storm duration and water level peak were identified.
Melissa Wood, Ivan D. Haigh, Quan Quan Le, Hung Nghia Nguyen, Hoang Ba Tran, Stephen E. Darby, Robert Marsh, Nikolaos Skliris, Joël J.-M. Hirschi, Robert J. Nicholls, and Nadia Bloemendaal
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2475–2504,Short summary
We used a novel database of simulated tropical cyclone tracks to explore whether typhoon-induced storm surges present a future flood risk to low-lying coastal communities around the South China Sea. We found that future climate change is likely to change tropical cyclone behaviour to an extent that this increases the severity and frequency of storm surges to Vietnam, southern China, and Thailand. Consequently, coastal flood defences need to be reviewed for resilience against this future hazard.
Sang-Guk Yum, Moon-Soo Song, and Manik Das Adhikari
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2449–2474,Short summary
This study performed analysis on typhoon-induced coastal morphodynamics for the Mokpo coast. Wetland vegetation was severely impacted by Typhoon Soulik, with 87.35 % of shoreline transects experiencing seaward migration. This result highlights the fact that sediment resuspension controls the land alteration process over the typhoon period. The land accretion process dominated during the pre- to post-typhoon periods.
Olle Räty, Marko Laine, Ulpu Leijala, Jani Särkkä, and Milla M. Johansson
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2403–2418,Short summary
We studied annual maximum sea levels in the Finnish coastal region. Our aim was to better quantify the uncertainty in them compared to previous studies. Using four statistical models, we found out that hierarchical models, which shared information on sea-level extremes across Finnish tide gauges, had lower uncertainty in their results in comparison with tide-gauge-specific fits. These models also suggested that the shape of the distribution for extreme sea levels is similar on the Finnish coast.
Christian Ferrarin, Florian Pantillon, Silvio Davolio, Marco Bajo, Mario Marcello Miglietta, Elenio Avolio, Diego S. Carrió, Ioannis Pytharoulis, Claudio Sanchez, Platon Patlakas, Juan Jesús González-Alemán, and Emmanouil Flaounas
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2273–2287,Short summary
The combined use of meteorological and ocean models enabled the analysis of extreme sea conditions driven by Medicane Ianos, which hit the western coast of Greece on 18 September 2020, flooding and damaging the coast. The large spread associated with the ensemble highlighted the high model uncertainty in simulating such an extreme weather event. The different simulations have been used for outlining hazard scenarios that represent a fundamental component of the coastal risk assessment.
Charline Dalinghaus, Giovanni Coco, and Pablo Higuera
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2157–2169,Short summary
Wave setup is a critical component of coastal flooding. Consequently, understanding and being able to predict wave setup is vital to protect coastal resources and the population living near the shore. Here, we applied machine learning to improve the accuracy of present predictors of wave setup. The results show that the new predictors outperform existing formulas demonstrating the capability of machine learning models to provide a physically sound description of wave setup.
Leigh Richard MacPherson, Arne Arns, Svenja Fischer, Fernando J. Méndez, and Jürgen Jensen
Efficient adaptation planning to coastal flooding caused by extreme sea levels requires accurate assessments of the underlying hazard. Tide-gauge data alone is often insufficient for providing the desired accuracy but may be supplemented with historical information. We estimate extreme sea levels along the German Baltic coast and show that relying solely on tide-gauge data leads to underestimations. Incorporating historical information leads to improved estimates with reduced uncertainties.
Ina Teutsch, Markus Brühl, Ralf Weisse, and Sander Wahls
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2053–2073,Short summary
Rogue waves exceed twice the significant wave height. They occur more often than expected in the shallow waters off Norderney. When applying a nonlinear Fourier transform for the Korteweg–de Vries equation to wave data from Norderney, we found differences in the soliton spectra of time series with and without rogue waves. A strongly outstanding soliton in the spectrum indicated an enhanced probability for rogue waves. We could attribute spectral solitons to the measured rogue waves.
Philipp Heinrich, Stefan Hagemann, Ralf Weisse, Corinna Schrum, Ute Daewel, and Lidia Gaslikova
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1967–1985,Short summary
High seawater levels co-occurring with high river discharges have the potential to cause destructive flooding. For the past decades, the number of such compound events was larger than expected by pure chance for most of the west-facing coasts in Europe. Additionally rivers with smaller catchments showed higher numbers. In most cases, such events were associated with a large-scale weather pattern characterized by westerly winds and strong rainfall.
Alexander Böhme, Birgit Gerkensmeier, Benedikt Bratz, Clemens Krautwald, Olaf Müller, Nils Goseberg, and Gabriele Gönnert
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1947–1966,Short summary
External surges in the North Sea are caused by low-pressure cells travelling over the northeast Atlantic. They influence extreme water levels on the German coast and have to be considered in the design process of coastal defence structures. This study collects data about external surges from 1995–2020 and analyses their causes, behaviours and potential trends. External surges often occur less than 72 h apart, enabling a single storm surge to be influenced by more than one external surge.
Kenta Tozato, Shuji Moriguchi, Shinsuke Takase, Yu Otake, Michael R. Motley, Anawat Suppasri, and Kenjiro Terada
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1891–1909,Short summary
This study presents a framework that efficiently investigates the optimal placement of facilities probabilistically based on advanced numerical simulation. Surrogate models for the numerical simulation are constructed using a mode decomposition technique. Monte Carlo simulations using the surrogate models are performed to evaluate failure probabilities. Using the results of the Monte Carlo simulations and the genetic algorithm, optimal placements can be investigated probabilistically.
Job C. M. Dullaart, Sanne Muis, Hans de Moel, Philip J. Ward, Dirk Eilander, and Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1847–1862,Short summary
Coastal flooding is driven by storm surges and high tides and can be devastating. To gain an understanding of the threat posed by coastal flooding and to identify areas that are especially at risk, now and in the future, it is crucial to accurately model coastal inundation and assess the coastal flood hazard. Here, we present a global dataset with hydrographs that represent the typical evolution of an extreme sea level. These can be used to model coastal inundation more accurately.
Elin Andrée, Jian Su, Morten Andreas Dahl Larsen, Martin Drews, Martin Stendel, and Kristine Skovgaard Madsen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1817–1834,Short summary
When natural processes interact, they may compound each other. The combined effect can amplify extreme sea levels, such as when a storm occurs at a time when the water level is already higher than usual. We used numerical modelling of a record-breaking storm surge in 1872 to show that other prior sea-level conditions could have further worsened the outcome. Our research highlights the need to consider the physical context of extreme sea levels in measures to reduce coastal flood risk.
Anne Margaret H. Smiley, Suzanne P. Thompson, Nathan S. Hall, and Michael F. Piehler
Floodwaters can deliver reactive nitrogen to sensitive aquatic systems and diminish water quality. We assessed the nitrogen removal capabilities of flooded habitats and urban landscapes. Differences in processing rates across land cover treatments and between nutrient treatments suggest that abundance and spatial distributions of habitats, as well as storm characteristics, influence landscape-scale nitrogen removal. Results have important implications for coastal development and climate change.
Ekaterina Didenkulova, Ira Didenkulova, and Igor Medvedev
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1653–1663,Short summary
The paper is dedicated to freak wave accidents which happened in the world ocean in 2005–2021 and that were described in mass media sources. The database accounts for 429 events, all of which resulted in ship or coastal and offshore structure damage and/or human losses. In agreement with each freak wave event, we put background wave and wind conditions extracted from the climate reanalysis ERA5. We analyse their statistics and discuss the favourable conditions for freak wave occurrence.
Havu Pellikka, Milla M. Johansson, Maaria Nordman, and Kimmo Ruosteenoja
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1613–1630,Short summary
We explore the rate of past and future sea level rise at the Finnish coast, northeastern Baltic Sea, in 1901–2100. For this analysis, we use tide gauge observations, modelling results, and a probabilistic method to combine information from several sea level rise projections. We provide projections of local mean sea level by 2100 as probability distributions. The results can be used in adaptation planning in various sectors with different risk tolerance, e.g. land use planning or nuclear safety.
Carlos Corela, Afonso Loureiro, José Luis Duarte, Luis Matias, Tiago Rebelo, and Tiago Bartolomeu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1433–1451,Short summary
We show that ocean-bottom seismometers are controlled by bottom currents, but these are not always a function of the tidal forcing. Instead we suggest that the ocean bottom has a flow regime resulting from two possible contributions: the permanent low-frequency bottom current and the tidal current along the full tidal cycle, between neap and spring tides. In the short-period noise band the ocean current generates harmonic tremors that corrupt the dataset records.
Ye Yuan, Huaiwei Yang, Fujiang Yu, Yi Gao, Benxia Li, and Chuang Xing
Drownings due to rip currents are a major threat to beach safety. In this study an improved model and tracking of virtual swimmers were applied to an embayed beach in China to study rip current characteristics and the optimal swimmer escape strategies. We found that swim onshore consistently seems the most successful strategy in this study. Swim onshore or swim parallel to the beach could improve the probability of survival. Stay afloat can bring a higher risk of being expelled to deeper water.
Chu-En Hsu, Katherine Serafin, Xiao Yu, Christie Hegermiller, John C. Warner, and Maitane Olabarrieta
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss.,
Revised manuscript under review for NHESSShort summary
We analyzed how tropical cyclone (TC) characteristics affect total water level components. We used a numerical model to simulate surges and wind waves in the South Atlantic Bight (SAB) during hurricanes Matthew 2016, Dorian 2019, and Isaias 2020. We compared the water levels along the SAB. As the TCs approached, the water levels were affected by the instantaneous wind speed and the TC locations. To quantify the individual effects of TC properties on water levels, further analysis is required.
Chen Chen, Charles Koll, Haizhong Wang, and Michael K. Lindell
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 733–749,Short summary
This paper uses empirical-data-based simulation to analyze how to evacuate efficiently from disasters. We find that departure delay time and evacuation decision have significant impacts on evacuation results. Evacuation results are more sensitive to walking speed, departure delay time, evacuation participation, and destinations than to other variables. This model can help authorities to prioritize resources for hazard education, community disaster preparedness, and resilience plans.
Maude Biguenet, Eric Chaumillon, Pierre Sabatier, Antoine Bastien, Emeline Geba, Fabien Arnaud, Thibault Coulombier, and Nathalie Feuillet
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss.,
Preprint under review for NHESSShort summary
This work documents the impact of Hurricane Irma (2017) on the Codrington barrier and lagoon on Barbuda Island. Irma caused two wide breaching in the sandy barrier, which remained unopened for 250 years. The thick and extensive sand sheet on the top of the lagoon fill was attributed to Irma. This unique deposit in a 3700 years record confirms Irma's exceptional character. This case study illustrates the consequences of high-intensity hurricanes in low-lying islands in a global warming context.
Ariadna Martín, Angel Amores, Alejandro Orfila, Tim Toomey, and Marta Marcos
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 587–600,Short summary
Tropical cyclones (TCs) are among the potentially most hazardous phenomena affecting the coasts of the Caribbean Sea. This work simulates the coastal hazards in terms of sea surface elevation and waves that originate through the passage of these events. A set of 1000 TCs have been simulated, obtained from a set of synthetic cyclones that are consistent with present-day climate. Given the large number of hurricanes used, robust values of extreme sea levels and waves are computed along the coasts.
An-Chi Cheng, Anawat Suppasri, Kwanchai Pakoksung, and Fumihiko Imamura
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 447–479,Short summary
Consecutive earthquakes occurred offshore of southern Taiwan on 26 December 2006. This event revealed unusual tsunami generation and propagation, as well as unexpected consequences for the southern Taiwanese coast (i.e., amplified waves and prolonged durations). This study aims to elucidate the source characteristics of the 2006 tsunami and the important behaviors responsible for tsunami hazards in Taiwan such as wave trapping and shelf resonance.
Jean Roger, Bernard Pelletier, Aditya Gusman, William Power, Xiaoming Wang, David Burbidge, and Maxime Duphil
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 393–414,Short summary
On 10 February 2021 a magnitude 7.7 earthquake occurring at the southernmost part of the Vanuatu subduction zone triggered a regional tsunami that was recorded on many coastal gauges and DART stations of the south-west Pacific region. Beginning with a review of the tectonic setup and its implication in terms of tsunami generation in the region, this study aims to show our ability to reproduce a small tsunami with different types of rupture models and to discuss a larger magnitude 8.2 scenario.
Kathrin Wahle, Emil V. Stanev, and Joanna Staneva
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 415–428,Short summary
Knowledge of what causes maximum water levels is often key in coastal management. Processes, such as storm surge and atmospheric forcing, alter the predicted tide. Whilst most of these processes are modeled in present-day ocean forecasting, there is still a need for a better understanding of situations where modeled and observed water levels deviate from each other. Here, we will use machine learning to detect such anomalies within a network of sea-level observations in the North Sea.
Neng-Ti Yu, Cheng-Hao Lu, I-Chin Yen, Jia-Hong Chen, Jiun-Yee Yen, and Shyh-Jeng Chyi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss.,
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESSShort summary
Rock debris moved by tsunami waves that probably followed the 1661 earthquake in SW Taiwan are found. The long-awaited question of whether large tsunamis could impact on the South China Sea coasts is answered. The 3 m tall waves are powerful enough to carry big rocks, up to 2 t in weight and 1.7 m in length, landward for 30 m in distance and onto a 2.5 m high cliff. The earthquake and tsunami must be huge compared to the modern record set by the 1994 M6.4 earthquake and 0.4 m high tsunami.
Chuan Li, H. Tuba Özkan-Haller, Gabriel García Medina, Robert A. Holman, Peter Ruggiero, Treena M. Jensen, David B. Elson, and William R. Schneider
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 107–126,Short summary
In this work, we examine a set of observed extreme, non-earthquake-related and non-landslide-related wave runup events. Runup events with similar characteristics have previously been attributed to trapped waves, atmospheric disturbances, and abrupt breaking of long waves. However, we find that none of these mechanisms were likely at work in the observations we examined. We show that instead, these runup events were more likely due to energetic growth of bound infragravity waves.
Shan Liu, Xianwu Shi, Qiang Liu, Jun Tan, Yuxi Sun, Qingrong Liu, and Haoshuang Guo
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 127–138,Short summary
This study proposes a quantitative method for the determination of warning water levels. The proposed method is a multidimensional scale, centered on the consideration of various factors that characterize various coastlines. The implications of our study are not only scientific, as we provide a method for water level determination that is rooted in the scientific method (and reproducible across various contexts beyond China), but they are also deeply practical.
Benedikt Mester, Thomas Vogt, Seth Bryant, Christian Otto, Katja Frieler, and Jacob Schewe
In 2019, cyclone Idai displaced more than 478,000 people in Mozambique. In our study, we use coastal flood modeling and satellite imagery to construct a counterfactual cyclone event without the effects of climate change. We show that 17,000 displacements can be attributed to sea level rise and the intensification of storm wind speeds due to global warming. Our impact attribution study is the first one on human displacement and one of very few for a low-income country.
Jaap H. Nienhuis, Jana R. Cox, Joey O'Dell, Douglas A. Edmonds, and Paolo Scussolini
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 4087–4101,Short summary
Humans build levees to protect themselves against floods. We need to know where they are to correctly predict flooding, for example from sea level rise. Here we have looked through documents to find levees, and checked that they exist using satellite imagery. We developed a global levee map, available at www.opendelve.eu, and we found that 24 % of people in deltas are protected by levees.
Alec Torres-Freyermuth, Gabriela Medellín, Jorge A. Kurczyn, Roger Pacheco-Castro, Jaime Arriaga, Christian M. Appendini, María Eugenia Allende-Arandía, Juan A. Gómez, Gemma L. Franklin, and Jorge Zavala-Hidalgo
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 4063–4085,Short summary
Barrier islands in tropical regions are prone to coastal flooding and erosion during hurricane events. The Yucatán coast was impacted by hurricanes Gamma and Delta. Inner shelf, coastal, and inland observations were acquired. Beach morphology changes show alongshore gradients. Flooding occurred on the back barrier due to heavy inland rain and the coastal aquifer's confinement. Modeling systems failed to reproduce the coastal hydrodynamic response due to uncertainties in the boundary conditions.
Panagiotis Athanasiou, Ap van Dongeren, Alessio Giardino, Michalis Vousdoukas, Jose A. A. Antolinez, and Roshanka Ranasinghe
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3897–3915,Short summary
Sandy dunes protect the hinterland from coastal flooding during storms. Thus, models that can efficiently predict dune erosion are critical for coastal zone management and early warning systems. Here we develop such a model for the Dutch coast based on machine learning techniques, allowing for dune erosion estimations in a matter of seconds relative to available computationally expensive models. Validation of the model against benchmark data and observations shows good agreement.
María Teresa Pedrosa-González, José Manuel González-Vida, Jesús Galindo-Záldivar, Sergio Ortega, Manuel Jesús Castro, David Casas, and Gemma Ercilla
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3839–3858,Short summary
The L-ML-HySEA (Landslide Multilayer Hyperbolic Systems and Efficient Algorithms) model of the tsunami triggered by the Storfjorden LS-1 landslide provides new insights into the sliding mechanism and bathymetry controlling the propagation, amplitude values and shoaling effects as well as coastal impact times. This case study provides new perspectives on tsunami hazard assessment in polar margins, where global climatic change and its related ocean warming may contribute to landslide trigger.
Cuneyt Yavuz, Kutay Yilmaz, and Gorkem Onder
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3725–3736,Short summary
Even if the coincidence of flood and tsunami hazards may be experienced once in a blue moon, it should also be investigated due to the uncertainty of the time of occurrence of these natural hazards. The objective of this study is to reveal a statistical methodology to evaluate the aggregate potential hazard levels due to flood hazards with the presence of earthquake-triggered tsunamis. The proposed methodology is applied to Fethiye city, located on the Western Mediterranean coast of Turkey.
Damiano Baldan, Elisa Coraci, Franco Crosato, Maurizio Ferla, Andrea Bonometto, and Sara Morucci
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3663–3677,Short summary
Extreme-event analysis is widely used to provide information for the design of coastal protection structures. Non-stationarity due to sea level rise can affect such estimates. Using different methods on a long time series of sea level data, we show that estimates of the magnitude of extreme events in the future can be inexact due to relative sea level rise. Thus, considering non-stationarity is important when analyzing extreme-sea-level events.
Umesh Pranavam Ayyappan Pillai, Nadia Pinardi, Ivan Federico, Salvatore Causio, Francesco Trotta, Silvia Unguendoli, and Andrea Valentini
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3413–3433,Short summary
The study presents the application of high-resolution coastal modelling for wave hindcasting on the Emilia-Romagna coastal belt. The generated coastal databases which provide an understanding of the prevailing wind-wave characteristics can aid in predicting coastal impacts.
Jeremy Rohmer, Deborah Idier, Remi Thieblemont, Goneri Le Cozannet, and François Bachoc
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3167–3182,Short summary
We quantify the influence of wave–wind characteristics, offshore water level and sea level rise (projected up to 2200) on the occurrence of flooding events at Gâvres, French Atlantic coast. Our results outline the overwhelming influence of sea level rise over time compared to the others. By showing the robustness of our conclusions to the errors in the estimation procedure, our approach proves to be valuable for exploring and characterizing uncertainties in assessments of future flooding.
Edgar U. Zorn, Aiym Orynbaikyzy, Simon Plank, Andrey Babeyko, Herlan Darmawan, Ismail Fata Robbany, and Thomas R. Walter
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3083–3104,Short summary
Tsunamis caused by volcanoes are a challenge for warning systems as they are difficult to predict and detect. In Southeast Asia there are many active volcanoes close to the coast, so it is important to identify the most likely volcanoes to cause tsunamis in the future. For this purpose, we developed a point-based score system, allowing us to rank volcanoes by the hazard they pose. The results may be used to improve local monitoring and preparedness in the affected areas.
Jorge León, Alejandra Gubler, and Alonso Ogueda
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2857–2878,Short summary
Our research focuses on how the geophysical characteristics of coastal cities can determine evacuees' vulnerability during a tsunami evacuation. We identify, analyse, and rank some of those essential characteristics by examining seven case studies in Chile through computer-based inundation, evacuation, and statistical regressive modelling. These results could lead to urban planning guidelines to enhance future evacuations and increase resilience to global tsunamis.
Azucena Román-de la Sancha, Rodolfo Silva, Omar S. Areu-Rangel, Manuel Gerardo Verduzco-Zapata, Edgar Mendoza, Norma Patricia López-Acosta, Alexandra Ossa, and Silvia García
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2589–2609,Short summary
Transport networks in coastal urban areas are vulnerable to seismic events, with damage likely due to both ground motions and tsunami loading. The paper presents an approach that captures the earthquake–tsunami effects on transport infrastructure in a coastal area, taking into consideration the combined strains of the two events. The model is applied to a case in Manzanillo, Mexico, using ground motion records of the 1995 earthquake–tsunami event.
Tien-Chi Liu, Tso-Ren Wu, and Shu-Kun Hsu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2517–2530,Short summary
The findings from historical reports and numerical studies suggest the 1781 Jiateng Harbor flooding and the 1782 tsunami should be two independent incidents. Local tsunamis generated in southwest Taiwan could be responsible for the 1781 flooding, while the existence of the 1782 tsunami remains doubtful. With the documents of a storm event on 22 May 1782, the possibility that the significant water level of the 1782 tsunami was caused by storm surges or multiple hazards could not be ignored.
Mariana C. A. Clare, Tim W. B. Leijnse, Robert T. McCall, Ferdinand L. M. Diermanse, Colin J. Cotter, and Matthew D. Piggott
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2491–2515,Short summary
Assessing uncertainty is computationally expensive because it requires multiple runs of expensive models. We take the novel approach of assessing uncertainty from coastal flooding using a multilevel multifidelity (MLMF) method which combines the efficiency of less accurate models with the accuracy of more expensive models at different resolutions. This significantly reduces the computational cost but maintains accuracy, making previously unfeasible real-world studies possible.
Elke Magda Inge Meyer, Ralf Weisse, Iris Grabemann, Birger Tinz, and Robert Scholz
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2419–2432,Short summary
The severe storm tide of 13 March 1906 is still one of the most severe storm events for the East Frisian coast. Water levels from this event are considered for designing dike lines. For the first time, we investigate this event with a hydrodynamic model by forcing with atmospheric data from 147 ensemble members from century reanalysis projects and a manual reconstruction of the synoptic situation. Water levels were notably high due to a coincidence of high spring tides and high surge.
Julius Schlumberger, Christian Ferrarin, Sebastiaan N. Jonkman, Manuel Andres Diaz Loaiza, Alessandro Antonini, and Sandra Fatorić
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2381–2400,Short summary
Flooding has serious impacts on the old town of Venice. This paper presents a framework combining a flood model with a flood-impact model to support improving protection against future floods in Venice despite the recently built MOSE barrier. Applying the framework to seven plausible flood scenarios, it was found that individual protection has a significant damage-mediating effect if the MOSE barrier does not operate as anticipated. Contingency planning thus remains important in Venice.
Md Jamal Uddin Khan, Fabien Durand, Kerry Emanuel, Yann Krien, Laurent Testut, and A. K. M. Saiful Islam
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2359–2379,Short summary
Cyclonic storm surges constitute a major threat to lives and properties along the vast coastline of the Bengal delta. From a combination of cyclone and storm surge modelling, we present a robust probabilistic estimate of the storm surge flooding hazard under the current climate. The estimated extreme water levels vary regionally, and the inland flooding is strongly controlled by the embankments. More than 1/10 of the coastal population is currently exposed to 50-year return period flooding.
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We examine the variability of storm surges along the English Channel coasts and their connection with the global atmospheric circulation at the interannual and interdecadal timescales using hybrid approaches combining wavelet techniques and probabilistic generalized extreme value models. Our hypothesis is that the physical mechanisms of the atmospheric circulation change according to the timescales and their connection with the local variability improve the prediction of the extreme surges.
We examine the variability of storm surges along the English Channel coasts and their connection...