Articles | Volume 20, issue 12
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 3225–3243, 2020
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-3225-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Special issue: Advances in extreme value analysis and application to natural...
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 3225–3243, 2020
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-3225-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article 01 Dec 2020
Research article | 01 Dec 2020
A nonstationary analysis for investigating the multiscale variability of extreme surges: case of the English Channel coasts
Imen Turki et al.
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Edouard Patault, Valentin Landemaine, Jérôme Ledun, Arnaud Soulignac, Matthieu Fournier, Jean-François Ouvry, Olivier Cerdan, and Benoit Laignel
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2020-363, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2020-363, 2020
Preprint under review for HESS
Nicolas Massei, Daniel G. Kingston, David M. Hannah, Jean-Philippe Vidal, Bastien Dieppois, Manuel Fossa, Andreas Hartmann, David A. Lavers, and Benoit Laignel
Proc. IAHS, 383, 141–149, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-383-141-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-383-141-2020, 2020
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This paper presents recent thoughts by members of EURO-FRIEND Water project 3 “Large-scale-variations in hydrological characteristics” about research needed to characterize and understand large-scale hydrology under global changes. Emphasis is put on the necessary efforts to better understand 1 – the impact of low-frequency climate variability on hydrological trends and extremes, 2 – the role of basin properties on modulating the climate signal producing hydrological responses on the basin scale.
D. James, A. Collin, A. Mury, and S. Costa
Int. Arch. Photogramm. Remote Sens. Spatial Inf. Sci., XLIII-B2-2020, 675–682, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-archives-XLIII-B2-2020-675-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-archives-XLIII-B2-2020-675-2020, 2020
Hans W. Linderholm, Marie Nicolle, Pierre Francus, Konrad Gajewski, Samuli Helama, Atte Korhola, Olga Solomina, Zicheng Yu, Peng Zhang, William J. D'Andrea, Maxime Debret, Dmitry V. Divine, Björn E. Gunnarson, Neil J. Loader, Nicolas Massei, Kristina Seftigen, Elizabeth K. Thomas, Johannes Werner, Sofia Andersson, Annika Berntsson, Tomi P. Luoto, Liisa Nevalainen, Saija Saarni, and Minna Väliranta
Clim. Past, 14, 473–514, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-473-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-473-2018, 2018
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This paper reviews the current knowledge of Arctic hydroclimate variability during the past 2000 years. We discuss the current state, look into the future, and describe various archives and proxies used to infer past hydroclimate variability. We also provide regional overviews and discuss the potential of furthering our understanding of Arctic hydroclimate in the past. This paper summarises the hydroclimate-related activities of the Arctic 2k group.
Marie Nicolle, Maxime Debret, Nicolas Massei, Christophe Colin, Anne deVernal, Dmitry Divine, Johannes P. Werner, Anne Hormes, Atte Korhola, and Hans W. Linderholm
Clim. Past, 14, 101–116, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-101-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-101-2018, 2018
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Arctic climate variability for the last 2 millennia has been investigated using statistical and signal analyses from North Atlantic, Siberia and Alaska regionally averaged records. A focus on the last 2 centuries shows a climate variability linked to anthropogenic forcing but also a multidecadal variability likely due to regional natural processes acting on the internal climate system. It is an important issue to understand multidecadal variabilities occurring in the instrumental data.
Manuel Fossa, Marie Nicolle, Nicolas Massei, Matthieu Fournier, and Benoit Laignel
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2016-395, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2016-395, 2016
Manuscript not accepted for further review
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Links between river's discharge and large scale atmospheric and ocean physical processes has long been established by numerous studies. It is critical to identify those links for each river and map the rivers that share the same links. This study introduces a new method that allows classification of France rivers discharge variability according to 4 atmospheric processes that influence them and at 3 different time scales.
C. Lissak, O. Maquaire, J.-P. Malet, F. Lavigne, C. Virmoux, C. Gomez, and R. Davidson
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 1399–1406, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-1399-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-1399-2015, 2015
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The objective of this paper is to demonstrate the applicability of ground-penetrating radar (GPR) for monitoring the displacement of permanent slow-moving landslides affected by seasonal kinematic pattern and acceleration events. GPR data are used here to estimate the vertical movement of two rotational slides, since 1982, in combination with other surveying techniques.
M. Fressard, Y. Thiery, and O. Maquaire
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 569–588, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-569-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-569-2014, 2014
Related subject area
Sea, Ocean and Coastal Hazards
Timescales of emergence of chronic flooding in the major economic center of Guadeloupe
Impact of compound flood event on coastal critical infrastructures considering current and future climate
Study on the influence of the seafloor soft soil layer on seismic ground motion
Influence of hydrometeorological hazards and sea coast morphodynamics on development of Cephalanthero rubrae-Fagetum (Wolin island, the southern Baltic Sea)
Trivariate copula to design coastal structures
Beachgoers' ability to identify rip currents at a beach in situ
Wave height return periods from combined measurement–model data: a Baltic Sea case study
Modeling dependence and coincidence of storm surges and high tide: methodology, discussion and recommendations based on a simplified case study in Le Havre (France)
Laboratory study of non-linear wave–wave interactions of extreme focused waves in the nearshore zone
La Palma landslide tsunami: calibrated wave source and assessment of impact on French territories
Uncertainty quantification of tsunami inundation in Kuroshio, Kochi Prefecture, Japan, using the Nankai–Tonankai megathrust rupture scenarios
Investigating beach erosion related with tsunami sediment transport at Phra Thong Island, Thailand, caused by the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami
Oceanic response to the consecutive Hurricanes Dorian and Humberto (2019) in the Sargasso Sea
Simulation of storm surge inundation under different typhoon intensity scenarios: case study of Pingyang County, China
A statistical analysis of rogue waves in the southern North Sea
Quantifying processes contributing to marine hazards to inform coastal climate resilience assessments, demonstrated for the Caribbean Sea
Meteotsunami occurrence in the Gulf of Finland over the past century
Arctic tsunamis threaten coastal landscapes and communities – survey of Karrat Isfjord 2017 tsunami effects in Nuugaatsiaq, western Greenland
Multilayer-HySEA model validation for landslide generated tsunamis. Part II Granular slides
Storm tide amplification and habitat changes due to urbanization of a lagoonal estuary
Uncertainties in coastal flood risk assessments in small island developing states
Multilayer-HySEA model validation for landslide generated tsunamis. Part I Rigid slides
Lagrangian modelling of a person lost at sea during the Adriatic scirocco storm of 29 October 2018
Deep submarine landslide contribution to the 2010 Haiti earthquake tsunami
Extreme storm tides in the German Bight (North Sea) and their potential for amplification
Coastal impacts of Storm Gloria (January 2020) over the north-western Mediterranean
Regional frequency analysis of extreme storm surges using the extremogram approach
Extreme wave analysis based on atmospheric pattern classification: an application along the Italian coast
Risk assessment of sea ice disasters on fixed jacket platforms in Liaodong Bay
Non-stationary analysis of water level extremes in Latvian waters, Baltic Sea, during 1961–2018
Run-up, inundation, and sediment characteristics of the 22 December 2018 Sunda Strait tsunami, Indonesia
Spatial and temporal analysis of extreme storm-tide and skew-surge events around the coastline of New Zealand
Reciprocal Green's functions and the quick forecast of submarine landslide tsunamis
High-accuracy coastal flood mapping for Norway using lidar data
The 22 December 2018 Mount Anak Krakatau volcanogenic tsunami on Sunda Strait coasts, Indonesia: tsunami and damage characteristics
An efficient two-layer landslide-tsunami numerical model: effects of momentum transfer validated with physical experiments of waves generated by granular landslides
Integrated sea storm management strategy: the 29 October 2018 event in the Adriatic Sea
Nonlinear deformation and run-up of single tsunami waves of positive polarity: numerical simulations and analytical predictions
Tsunami risk perception in southern Italy: first evidence from a sample survey
Post-event field survey of 28 September 2018 Sulawesi earthquake and tsunami
Tsunami hazard and risk assessment for multiple buildings by considering the spatial correlation of wave height using copulas
Comparing the efficiency of hypoxia mitigation strategies in an urban, turbid tidal river via a coupled hydro-sedimentary–biogeochemical model
Machine learning analysis of lifeguard flag decisions and recorded rescues
Reconstructing patterns of coastal risk in space and time along the US Atlantic coast, 1970–2016
Ensemble models from machine learning: an example of wave runup and coastal dune erosion
Environmental controls on surf zone injuries on high-energy beaches
Extreme significant wave height of tropical cyclone waves in the South China Sea
Coastline evolution based on statistical analysis and modeling
Probabilistic characteristics of narrow-band long-wave run-up onshore
Impact of hurricanes Irma and Maria on the Pacific Tsunami Warning Center initial tsunami warning capability for the Caribbean region
Gonéri Le Cozannet, Déborah Idier, Marcello de Michele, Yoann Legendre, Manuel Moisan, Rodrigo Pedreros, Rémi Thiéblemont, Giorgio Spada, Daniel Raucoules, and Ywenn de la Torre
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 703–722, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-703-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-703-2021, 2021
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Chronic flooding occurring at high tides under calm weather conditions is an early impact of sea-level rise. This hazard is a reason for concern on tropical islands, where coastal infrastructure is commonly located in low-lying areas. We focus here on the Guadeloupe archipelago, in the French Antilles, where chronic flood events have been reported for about 10 years. We show that the number of such events will increase drastically over the 21st century under continued growth of CO2 emissions.
Mariam Khanam, Giulia Sofia, Marika Koukoula, Rehenuma Lazin, Efthymios I. Nikolopoulos, Xinyi Shen, and Emmanouil N. Anagnostou
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 587–605, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-587-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-587-2021, 2021
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Compound extremes correspond to events with multiple concurrent or consecutive drivers, leading to substantial impacts such as infrastructure failure. In many risk assessment and design applications, however, multihazard scenario events are ignored. In this paper, we present a general framework to investigate current and future climate compound-event flood impact on coastal critical infrastructures such as power grid substations.
Jingyan Lan, Juan Liu, and Xing Song
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 577–585, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-577-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-577-2021, 2021
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In current marine seismic engineering research, the influence of overlying-seawater weight and soft soil on seabed ground motion is often ignored, which leads to unsafe seismic design. In this paper, four representative calculation models are constructed, and the finite-element method is used for numerical simulation analysis in order to evaluate the amplification effect of overlying seawater and the seafloor soft soil layer on ground motion.
Jacek Tylkowski, Marcin Winowski, Marcin Hojan, Paweł Czyryca, and Mariusz Samołyk
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 363–374, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-363-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-363-2021, 2021
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This paper describes the relationship between weather conditions, sea level changes and the rate of the receding seashore and the state of the orchid beech plant community (Baltic Sea coast, Wolin island, Poland). The orchid beech habitat (Cephalanthero rubrae–Fagetum type) on the Wolin island is the only such well known site in the world. It was found that for the functioning of the orchid beech habitat in the 21st century, climate changes are a relatively greater threat than seashore erosion.
Olivier Orcel, Philippe Sergent, and François Ropert
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 239–260, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-239-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-239-2021, 2021
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Coastal structures subjected to the actions of waves must be redesigned due to rising sea levels. Their design requires an estimate of the long return period of wave height, wave period, storm surge and more specifically their joint exceedance probabilities. We confirm that the best results are obtained by first aggregating the most correlated variables: wave height and wave period. Nevertheless, the choice of method of aggregation is much less important than the choice of the copula.
Sebastian J. Pitman, Katie Thompson, Deirdre E. Hart, Kevin Moran, Shari L. Gallop, Robert W. Brander, and Adam Wooler
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 115–128, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-115-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-115-2021, 2021
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This study aimed to identify how well beach users could spot rip currents in real time at the beach. It was performed in response to the fact that rip currents are the leading cause of drownings on recreational beaches worldwide. We found that only one in five people were able to spot the rip current, meaning the vast majority would be unable to make good decisions about where it is safe to swim at the beach.
Jan-Victor Björkqvist, Sander Rikka, Victor Alari, Aarne Männik, Laura Tuomi, and Heidi Pettersson
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 3593–3609, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-3593-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-3593-2020, 2020
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Wave observations have a fundamental uncertainty due to the randomness of the sea state. Such scatter is absent in model data, and we tried two methods to best account for this difference when combining measured and modelled wave heights. The results were used to estimate how rare a 2019 storm in the Bothnian Sea was. Both methods were found to have strengths and weaknesses, but our best estimate was that, in the current climate, such a storm might on average repeat about once a century.
Amine Ben Daoued, Yasser Hamdi, Nassima Mouhous-Voyneau, and Philippe Sergent
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 3387–3398, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-3387-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-3387-2020, 2020
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This paper deals with the evaluation of the risk associated with coastal flooding by combining the tide with extreme storm surges (SSs). In this work, methods for tide and SS combination were compared. Le Havre in France was used as a case study. Overall, the example has shown that the return level estimates using different combinations are quite different. It has also been suggested that the questions of coincidence and dependency are essential for a combined tide and SS hazard analysis.
Iskander Abroug, Nizar Abcha, Armelle Jarno, and François Marin
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 3279–3291, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-3279-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-3279-2020, 2020
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Coastal regions are affected frequently by extreme waves resulting from storms, causing human fatalities and economic losses. Using a bispectral analysis based on the wavelet-based bicoherence tool, we present an experimental study of the propagation of large-amplitude focused wave groups in coastal regions. The results are consistent with the spectral broadening demonstrated in previous works using the classic Fourier analysis.
Stéphane Abadie, Alexandre Paris, Riadh Ata, Sylvestre Le Roy, Gael Arnaud, Adrien Poupardin, Lucie Clous, Philippe Heinrich, Jeffrey Harris, Rodrigo Pedreros, and Yann Krien
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 3019–3038, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-3019-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-3019-2020, 2020
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The tsunami which could be generated by a potential flank collapse of the Cumbre Vieja volcano in La Palma, Canary Islands, is evaluated through a numerical simulation based on an advanced and finely calibrated model. Then the consequences of such an event for Europe, France and Guadeloupe island are investigated using different numerical models for propagation. The impacts vary from negligible to very significant depending on the location considered.
Katsuichiro Goda, Tomohiro Yasuda, Nobuhito Mori, Ario Muhammad, Raffaele De Risi, and Flavia De Luca
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 3039–3056, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-3039-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-3039-2020, 2020
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Nankai–Tonankai megathrust earthquakes and tsunamis pose significant risks to coastal communities in western and central Japan. This study presents an extensive tsunami hazard assessment for the Nankai–Tonankai Trough events, focusing on the southwestern Pacific region of Japan. The results from the stochastic tsunami simulations can inform regional and local tsunami risk reduction actions in light of inevitable uncertainty associated with such probabilistic tsunami hazard assessments.
Ryota Masaya, Anawat Suppasri, Kei Yamashita, Fumihiko Imamura, Chris Gouramanis, and Natt Leelawat
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2823–2841, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2823-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2823-2020, 2020
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This study examines the sediment transport during the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami event on Phra Thong Island, Thailand. We use numerical simulations and sediment transportation models, and our modelling approach confirms that the beaches were significantly eroded predominantly during the first backwash phase. Although 2004 tsunami deposits are found on the island, we demonstrate that most of the sediment was deposited in the shallow coastal area, facilitating quick recovery of the beach.
Dailé Avila-Alonso, Jan M. Baetens, Rolando Cardenas, and Bernard De Baets
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2020-296, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2020-296, 2020
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Xianwu Shi, Pubing Yu, Zhixing Guo, Zhilin Sun, Fuyuan Chen, Xiuguang Wu, Wenlong Cheng, and Jian Zeng
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2777–2790, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2777-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2777-2020, 2020
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This study presents a method for the calculation of storm surge inundation simulation under different typhoon intensity scenarios. The parameters including typhoon track, radius of maximum wind speed, astronomical tide, and upstream runoff under different typhoon intensity scenarios were set. The inundation extents and depths corresponding to the storm surges under different typhoon intensity scenarios were simulated in combination with the numerical model.
Ina Teutsch, Ralf Weisse, Jens Moeller, and Oliver Krueger
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2665–2680, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2665-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2665-2020, 2020
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Rogue waves pose a threat to marine operations and structures. Typically, a wave is called a rogue wave when its height exceeds twice that of the surrounding waves. There is still discussion on the extent to which such waves are unusual. A new data set of about 329 million waves from the southern North Sea was analyzed. While data from wave buoys mostly corresponded to expectations from known distributions, radar measurements showed some deviations pointing towards higher rogue wave frequencies.
Svetlana Jevrejeva, Lucy Bricheno, Jennifer Brown, David Byrne, Michela De Dominicis, Andy Matthews, Stefanie Rynders, Hindumathi Palanisamy, and Judith Wolf
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2609–2626, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2609-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2609-2020, 2020
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We explore the role of waves, storm surges and sea level rise for the Caribbean region with a focus on the eastern Caribbean islands. We simulate past extreme events, suggesting a storm surge might reach 1.5 m and coastal wave heights up to 12 m offshore and up to 5 m near the coast of St Vincent. We provide sea level projections of up to 2.2 m by 2100. Our work provides quantitative evidence for policy-makers, scientists and local communities to actively protect against climate change.
Havu Pellikka, Terhi K. Laurila, Hanna Boman, Anu Karjalainen, Jan-Victor Björkqvist, and Kimmo K. Kahma
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2535–2546, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2535-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2535-2020, 2020
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Meteotsunamis are long waves created by atmospheric disturbances travelling over the sea. These waves can be hazardous in rare cases. Their occurrence in the Baltic Sea has been poorly known, which is why we examine century-long sea level records from the Gulf of Finland to identify these waves. In total, 121 potential meteotsunamis were found. The strong connection between meteotsunami occurrence and lightning observations indicates that meteotsunamis in this region occur during thunderstorms.
Mateusz C. Strzelecki and Marek W. Jaskólski
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2521–2534, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2521-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2521-2020, 2020
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To date, the effects of tsunamis have been mainly reported from tropical and temperate climatic zones. Rare records of polar tsunamis may partly reflect the very low population densities, the short written history, and little coastal geological work focused on the sedimentary record of palaeotsunamis. We report the results of the field survey of post-tsunami damage in the Nuugaatsiaq settlement in Greenland, which on 17 June 2017 was hit by three tsunami waves triggered by a landslide.
Jorge Macías, Cipriano Escalante, and Manuel J. Castro
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2020-172, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2020-172, 2020
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
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Numerical models need to be validated previous to their use as predictive tools. This requirement becomes even more necessary when these models are going to be used for risk assessment in natural hazards where human lives are involved. The present work aims to benchmark the novel Multilayer-HySEA model for landslide generated tsunamis produced by granular slides, in order to provide to the tsunami community with a robust, efficient and reliable tool for landslide tsunami hazard assessment.
Philip M. Orton, Eric W. Sanderson, Stefan A. Talke, Mario Giampieri, and Kytt MacManus
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2415–2432, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2415-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2415-2020, 2020
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The geometry of estuaries is often altered through dredging to make room for ships and with extensive landfill over wetlands to enable development. Here, we use historical maps to help create computational models of seawater flow around and into a lagoonal bay of New York City for the 1880s and 2010s. Our results show that these past man-made changes cause higher coastal storm tides and that they result specifically from deeper depths, expanded inlet width, and landfill.
Matteo U. Parodi, Alessio Giardino, Ap van Dongeren, Stuart G. Pearson, Jeremy D. Bricker, and Ad J. H. M. Reniers
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2397–2414, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2397-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2397-2020, 2020
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We investigate sources of uncertainty in coastal flood risk assessment in São Tomé and Príncipe, a small island developing state. We find that, for the present-day scenario, uncertainty from depth damage functions and digital elevation models can be more significant than that related to the estimation of significant wave height or storm surge level. For future scenarios (year 2100), sea level rise prediction becomes the input with the strongest impact on coastal flood damage estimate.
Jorge Macías, Cipriano Escalante, and Manuel J. Castro
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2020-171, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2020-171, 2020
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
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The validation of numerical models is a first unavoidable step before their use as predictive tools. This requirement is even more necessary when the developed models are going to be used for risk assessment in natural events where human lives are involved. The present work is the first step in this task for the Multilayer-HySEA model, a novel dispersive multilayer model of the HySEA suite developed at the University of Malaga, following the standards proposed by the NTHMP of the US.
Matjaž Ličer, Solène Estival, Catalina Reyes-Suarez, Davide Deponte, and Anja Fettich
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2335–2349, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2335-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2335-2020, 2020
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In 2018 windsurfer’s mast broke about 1 km offshore during a scirocco storm in the northern Adriatic. He was drifting in severe conditions until he eventually beached alive and well in Sistiana (Italy) 24 h later. We conducted an interview with the survivor to reconstruct his trajectory. We simulate his trajectory in several ways and estimate the optimal search-and-rescue area for a civil rescue response. Properly calibrated virtual drifter properties are key to reliable rescue area forecasting.
Adrien Poupardin, Eric Calais, Philippe Heinrich, Hélène Hébert, Mathieu Rodriguez, Sylvie Leroy, Hideo Aochi, and Roby Douilly
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2055–2065, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2055-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2055-2020, 2020
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The Mw 7 Haiti earthquake in 2010 was accompanied by local tsunamis that caused fatalities and damage to coastal infrastructure. Earthquakes alone could not explain all observations in Hispaniola Island. We suspected that a big submarine landslide occured and generated the 3 m high waves observed near Jacmel and Pedernales. We identify a landslide scar 30 km from the epicenter and at a depth of 3500 m and we simulate the corresponding tsunami which gives results very close to observations.
Iris Grabemann, Lidia Gaslikova, Tabea Brodhagen, and Elisabeth Rudolph
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1985–2000, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1985-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1985-2020, 2020
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Storm tides threaten the low-lying regions of the North Sea protected by dikes. Extreme storm tides with very low probabilities of occurrence could be important for coastal risk management due to their potential high impact. We searched an extensive data set of simulations and identified extreme storm tides higher than those observed since 1900. We investigated how two of the events evolved in the near-shore areas of the Ems estuary and their potential for physically plausible amplification.
Angel Amores, Marta Marcos, Diego S. Carrió, and Lluís Gómez-Pujol
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1955–1968, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1955-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1955-2020, 2020
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Storm Gloria hit the Mediterranean Spanish coastlines between 20 and 23 January 2020, causing severe damages such as flooding of the Ebro River delta. We evaluate its coastal impacts with a numerical simulation of the wind waves and the accumulated ocean water along the coastline (storm surge). The storm surge that reached values up to 1 m was mainly driven by the wind that also generated wind waves up to 8 m in height. We also determine the extent of the Ebro Delta flooded by marine water.
Marc Andreevsky, Yasser Hamdi, Samuel Griolet, Pietro Bernardara, and Roberto Frau
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1705–1717, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1705-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1705-2020, 2020
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A methodology to perform a regional frequency analysis centred on a target site is proposed. The spatial extremogram technique is used to form a physically and statistically homogeneous region around the site of interest. This is of fundamental importance to conducting a more proper regional analysis. A regional frequency estimation of extreme skew storm surges on the French coasts is carried out.
Francesco De Leo, Sebastián Solari, and Giovanni Besio
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1233–1246, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1233-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1233-2020, 2020
Ning Xu, Shuai Yuan, Xueqin Liu, Yuxian Ma, Wenqi Shi, and Dayong Zhang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1107–1121, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1107-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1107-2020, 2020
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Sea ice disasters seriously threaten the safety of oil platforms in the Bohai Sea. Therefore, it is necessary to carry out risk assessments of sea ice disasters on oil platforms in the Bohai Sea. The analysis results showed that efficient sea ice prevention strategies could largely mitigate the sea-ice-induced vibration-related risks to jacket platforms. The sea ice risk assessment method can be applied in the design, operation, and management of other engineering structures.
Nadezhda Kudryavtseva, Tarmo Soomere, and Rain Männikus
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2020-100, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2020-100, 2020
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
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The paper demonstrates a finding of a very sudden change in the nature of water level extremes in the Gulf of Riga. The shape of the distribution is variable with time, it abruptly changed for several years and then suddenly got restored. If similar sudden changes happen in other places in the world, then not taking into account the non-stationarity can lead to a significant underestimation of the future risks potentially caused by the water level extreme events.
Wahyu Widiyanto, Shih-Chun Hsiao, Wei-Bo Chen, Purwanto B. Santoso, Rudy T. Imananta, and Wei-Cheng Lian
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 933–946, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-933-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-933-2020, 2020
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This article reports the results of a field survey carried out in the disaster area of the December 2018 Sunda Strait tsunami, Indonesia. It provides data covering run-up heights, inundations, tsunami directions, and sediment characteristics. The data can be used for the validation of hydrodynamic models, and they contribute to a better understanding of the Sunda Strait tsunami caused by the Anak Krakatau volcano. In addition, they are important for spatial planning and mitigation efforts.
Scott A. Stephens, Robert G. Bell, and Ivan D. Haigh
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 783–796, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-783-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-783-2020, 2020
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Extreme sea levels in New Zealand occur in nearby places and at similar times, which means that flooding impacts and losses may be linked in space and time. The most extreme sea levels depend on storms coinciding with very high tides because storm surges are relatively small in New Zealand. The type of storm weather system influences where the extreme sea levels occur, and the annual timing is influenced by the low-amplitude (~10 cm) annual sea-level cycle.
Guan-Yu Chen, Chin-Chih Liu, Janaka J. Wijetunge, and Yi-Fung Wang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 771–781, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-771-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-771-2020, 2020
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Tsunamis generated by submarine landslides were considered rare. However, more and more studies indicate that many tsunami events can be attributed to submarine landslides. At the same time, knowledge and experience have been accumulated in simulating this kind of tsunami. We believe it is time to think about the forecast of this kind of tsunami, and the approach we use is very helpful in building a feasible forecast system for submarine landslide tsunamis.
Kristian Breili, Matthew James Ross Simpson, Erlend Klokkervold, and Oda Roaldsdotter Ravndal
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 673–694, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-673-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-673-2020, 2020
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Using accurate elevation data, we generate coastal flooding maps for Norway. Although Norway is at low risk from sea level rise, parts of the coast are potentially vulnerable to flooding. Nationwide we identify an area of 400 km2, 105 000 buildings, and 510 km of roads that are at risk of flooding from a storm surge at present (these numbers increase to 610 km2, 137 000, and 1340 km with projected sea level rise to 2090). The maps aid coastal management and climate adaption in Norway.
Syamsidik, Benazir, Mumtaz Luthfi, Anawat Suppasri, and Louise K. Comfort
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 549–565, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-549-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-549-2020, 2020
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On 22 December 2018, a tsunami was generated from the Mount Anak Krakatau area that was caused by volcanic flank failures. The tsunami had severe impacts on the western coasts of Banten and the southern coasts of Lampung in Indonesia. A series of surveys to measure the impacts of the tsunami was started 3 d after the tsunami and lasted for 10 d. This paper provides insights from the tsunami-affected area in terms of distribution of tsunami flow depths, boulders and building damage.
Martin Franz, Michel Jaboyedoff, Ryan P. Mulligan, Yury Podladchikov, and W. Andy Take
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2019-396, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2019-396, 2020
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
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A landslide-generated tsunami is a complex phenomenon that involves landslide dynamics, wave dynamics and their interaction. This phenomenon threatens numerous lives and infrastructures around the world. To assess this natural hazard, we developed an efficient numerical model able to simulate the landslide, the momentum transfer and the wave, all at once. The good agreement between the numerical simulations and physical experiments validates our model and its novel momentum transfer approach.
Christian Ferrarin, Andrea Valentini, Martin Vodopivec, Dijana Klaric, Giovanni Massaro, Marco Bajo, Francesca De Pascalis, Amedeo Fadini, Michol Ghezzo, Stefano Menegon, Lidia Bressan, Silvia Unguendoli, Anja Fettich, Jure Jerman, Matjaz̆ Ličer, Lidija Fustar, Alvise Papa, and Enrico Carraro
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 73–93, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-73-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-73-2020, 2020
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Here we present a shared and interoperable system to allow a better exchange of and elaboration on information related to sea storms among countries. The proposed integrated web system (IWS) is a combination of a common data system for sharing ocean observations and forecasts, a multi-model ensemble system, a geoportal, and interactive geo-visualization tools. This study describes the application of the developed system to the exceptional storm event of 29 October 2018.
Ahmed A. Abdalazeez, Ira Didenkulova, and Denys Dutykh
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 2905–2913, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-2905-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-2905-2019, 2019
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This work is based on the authors' idea that asymmetry of a tsunami wave gained during its propagation in the ocean should also influence its run-up height on the slope. This was previously analytically shown by the authors for sinusoidal waves. In the paper, this idea is elaborated for single waves using both semi-analytical and numerical methods. The corresponding formula for the maximum run-up height which takes into account the wave front steepness is proposed.
Andrea Cerase, Massimo Crescimbene, Federica La Longa, and Alessandro Amato
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 2887–2904, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-2887-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-2887-2019, 2019
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Southern Italy coasts are at risk of being hit by tsunamis. To address risk mitigation policies and risk communication, the authors implemented a sample survey on 1021 interviewees living in the coastal municipalities of Calabria and Apulia. People’s risk perception appears low: almost half of the sample considers tsunamis unlikely. Relevant differences emerge as a result of different risk perception in Tyrrhenian Calabria, where people are more likely to associate tsunami risk with volcanoes.
Wahyu Widiyanto, Purwanto B. Santoso, Shih-Chun Hsiao, and Rudy T. Imananta
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 2781–2794, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-2781-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-2781-2019, 2019
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This paper reports the results of a post-tsunami field survey conducted in the disaster area of the 28 September 2018 Sulawesi, Indonesia, tsunami. It provides evidence covering run-up heights, inundations, tsunami arrival times, damage characteristics, and coastal landslides. The results can be used for validation of hydrodynamic models, and they contribute to a comprehensive understanding of the Sulawesi tsunami. They are also important for mitigation, regional planning, and development.
Yo Fukutani, Shuji Moriguchi, Kenjiro Terada, Takuma Kotani, Yu Otake, and Toshikazu Kitano
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 2619–2634, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-2619-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-2619-2019, 2019
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We demonstrate a method of tsunami risk assessment for two buildings using copulas of tsunami hazards that can consider the nonlinear spatial correlation of wave heights. As a result, the maximum value of the expected aggregate damage probability was approximately 3.0 % higher in the case considering the wave height correlation. We clearly showed the importance of considering wave height correlation and the usefulness of copula modeling in evaluating the tsunami risk of a building portfolio.
Katixa Lajaunie-Salla, Aldo Sottolichio, Sabine Schmidt, Xavier Litrico, Guillaume Binet, and Gwenaël Abril
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 2551–2564, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-2551-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-2551-2019, 2019
Chris Houser, Jacob Lehner, Nathan Cherry, and Phil Wernette
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 2541–2549, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-2541-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-2541-2019, 2019
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On many beaches, lifeguards set out flags to warn beach users of the surf and rip hazard based on the regional surf forecast and careful observation. There is a potential that the chosen flag does not accurately reflect the potential risk. Results of a machine learning analysis suggest that the greatest number of rescues occurred on days when the lifeguard flew a more cautious flag than the model predicted. It is argued that that beach users may be discounting lifeguard warnings.
Scott B. Armstrong and Eli D. Lazarus
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 2497–2511, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-2497-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-2497-2019, 2019
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This work examines relationships between coastal hazard, exposure, and vulnerability to describe trajectories of risk at the county scale along the US Atlantic coast over the past 5 decades. Our findings suggest that modelling efforts to predict future coastal risk need to address feedbacks between hazard, exposure, and vulnerability to capture emergent patterns of risk in space and time.
Tomas Beuzen, Evan B. Goldstein, and Kristen D. Splinter
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 2295–2309, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-2295-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-2295-2019, 2019
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Wave runup is important for characterizing coastal vulnerability to wave action; however, it is complex and uncertain to predict. We use machine learning with a high-resolution dataset of wave runup to develop an accurate runup predictor that includes prediction uncertainty. We show how uncertainty in wave runup predictions can be used practically in a model of dune erosion to make ensemble predictions that provide more information and greater predictive skill than a single deterministic model.
Bruno Castelle, Tim Scott, Rob Brander, Jak McCarroll, Arthur Robinet, Eric Tellier, Elias de Korte, Bruno Simonnet, and Louis-Rachid Salmi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 2183–2205, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-2183-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-2183-2019, 2019
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For the first time we explore the influence of environmental conditions (wave and weather conditions, tide elevation, and beach morphology) on surf zone injuries (e.g. drowning incidents, spine injuries). Serious injuries are caused by the two primary hazards found along high-energy surf beaches: shore-break waves and narrow seaward-flowing rip currents, which have different environmental controls. Results have strong implications for future beach safety management and education of beach users.
Zhuxiao Shao, Bingchen Liang, Huajun Li, Ping Li, and Dongyoung Lee
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 2067–2077, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-2067-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-2067-2019, 2019
Elvira Armenio, Francesca De Serio, Michele Mossa, and Antonio F. Petrillo
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 1937–1953, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1937-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1937-2019, 2019
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The present study describes an approach for the assessment of beach accretion–erosion, based on the joint use of data analysis, statistical methods and one-line numerical modeling. A chain method is proposed, based on the joint analysis of field data, statistical tools and numerical modeling. The coastline morphology has been examined through interannual field data, such as aerial photographs, plane-bathymetric surveys and seabed characterization.
Sergey Gurbatov and Efim Pelinovsky
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 1925–1935, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1925-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1925-2019, 2019
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Hazardous sea waves that have irregular structures approach the coast very often. They should be characterized by their statistical characteristics. They are found here within an analytical theory of shallow-water wave run-up on a beach without breaking. Obtained distribution functions can be used for estimates of the flooding zone characteristics in marine natural hazards.
Victor Sardina, David Walsh, Kanoa Koyanagi, Stuart Weinstein, Nathan Becker, Charles McCreery, and Christa von Hillebrandt-Andrade
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 1865–1880, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1865-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1865-2019, 2019
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We quantified the impact of hurricanes Irma and Maria on the PTWC initial tsunami warning capability for the Caribbean region after accounting for hurricane-related seismic station outages. Within the eastern Caribbean region the hurricanes exacerbated outages to an astonishing 82 % of the available 76 stations. This resulted in up to 02:33 and 04:33 min added to the earthquake detection and response times, effectively knocking out PTWC's local tsunami warning capabilities in the region.
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Short summary
We examine the variability of storm surges along the English Channel coasts and their connection with the global atmospheric circulation at the interannual and interdecadal timescales using hybrid approaches combining wavelet techniques and probabilistic
generalized extreme value models. Our hypothesis is that the physical mechanisms of the atmospheric circulation change according to the timescales and their connection with the local variability improve the prediction of the extreme surges.
We examine the variability of storm surges along the English Channel coasts and their connection...
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