Articles | Volume 20, issue 6
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1741-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1741-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
15 Jun 2020
Research article |
| 15 Jun 2020
Probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis for Tuzla test site using Monte Carlo simulations
Hafize Basak Bayraktar
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Department of Physics “Ettore Pancini”, University of Naples
Federico II, Naples, 80126, Italy
Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Rome, Italy
Ceren Ozer Sozdinler
Institute of Education, Research and Regional Cooperation for Crisis Management Shikoku, Kagawa University, Takamatsu, 760-8521, Japan
Related authors
No articles found.
Ceren Ozer Sozdinler, Ocal Necmioglu, H. Basak Bayraktar, and Nurcan M. Ozel
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2019-186, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2019-186, 2019
Preprint withdrawn
Short summary
Short summary
We are presenting the first tsunami scenario database in the sea of Marmara, Turkey with comprehensive compilation of historical and empirical seismic data and numerical modeilng using NAMIDANCE in the frame of FP-7 MARSite project. Our main aim is to correlate with the operations of Tsunami Service Provider in KOERI. The results show that hazardous historical tsunamis in Marmara Sea cannot be explained by only earthquakes and submarine landslides should be considered as the primary component.
Related subject area
Earthquake Hazards
Tsunami scenario triggered by a submarine landslide offshore of northern Sumatra Island and its hazard assessment
Scrutinizing and rooting the multiple anomalies of Nepal earthquake sequence in 2015 with the deviation–time–space criterion and homologous lithosphere–coversphere–atmosphere–ionosphere coupling physics
On the calculation of smoothing kernels for seismic parameter spatial mapping: methodology and examples
Mass flows, turbidity currents and other hydrodynamic consequences of small and moderate earthquakes in the Sea of Marmara
Brief communication: The crucial assessment of possible significant vertical movements preceding the 28 December 1908, Mw = 7.1, Messina Straits earthquake
Geologic and geodetic constraints on the magnitude and frequency of earthquakes along Malawi's active faults: the Malawi Seismogenic Source Model (MSSM)
Probabilistic fault displacement hazard analysis for the north Tabriz fault
Earthquake-induced landslides in Norway
A web-GIS database of the scientific articles on earthquake-triggered landslides
Landslides triggered by the 2015 Mw 6.0 Sabah (Malaysia) earthquake: inventory and ESI-07 intensity assignment
Pseudo-prospective testing of 5-year earthquake forecasts for California using inlabru
Brief communication: PERL: a dataset of geotechnical, geophysical, and hydrogeological parameters for earthquake-induced hazards assessment in Terre del Reno (Emilia Romagna, Italy)
A non-extensive approach to probabilistic seismic hazard analysis
Development of a Seismic Loss Prediction Model for Residential Buildings using Machine Learning – Christchurch, New Zealand
An updated area-source seismogenic model (MA4) for seismic hazard of Italy
Identifying plausible historical scenarios for coupled lake level and seismicity rate changes: the case for the Dead Sea during the last 2 millennia
Analysis of seismic strain release related to the tidal stress preceding the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake
A morphotectonic approach to the study of earthquakes in Rome
Fault slip potential induced by fluid injection in the Matouying enhanced geothermal system (EGS) field, Tangshan seismic region, North China
Magnitude and source area estimations of severe prehistoric earthquakes in the western Austrian Alps
Hidden-state modeling of a cross-section of geoelectric time series data can provide reliable intermediate-term probabilistic earthquake forecasting in Taiwan
Sensitivity analysis of input ground motion on surface motion parameters in high seismic regions: a case of Bhutan Himalaya
Earthquake-induced landslide monitoring and survey by means of InSAR
Ground motion variability in Israel from 3-D simulations of M 6 and M 7 earthquakes
Ground motion prediction maps using seismic-microzonation data and machine learning
Seismic risk scenarios for the residential buildings in the Sabana Centro province in Colombia
Modern earthquakes as a key to understanding those of the past: the intensity attenuation curve speaks about earthquake depth and magnitude
A sanity check for earthquake recurrence models used in PSHA of slowly deforming regions: the case of SW Iberia
Development of a seismic site-response zonation map for the Netherlands
Characterization of fault plane and coseismic slip for the 2 May 2020, Mw 6.6 Cretan Passage earthquake from tide gauge tsunami data and moment tensor solutions
Urban search and rescue (USAR) simulation system: spatial strategies for agent task allocation under uncertain conditions
Modelling earthquake rates and associated uncertainties in the Marmara Region, Turkey
Vulnerability and site effects in earthquake disasters in Armenia (Colombia) – Part 2 : Observed damage and vulnerability
Integrating macroseismic intensity distributions with a probabilistic approach: an application in Italy
Spatiotemporal heterogeneity of b values revealed by a data-driven approach for the 17 June 2019 MS 6.0 Changning earthquake sequence, Sichuan, China
A harmonised instrumental earthquake catalogue for Iceland and the northern Mid-Atlantic Ridge
A homogeneous earthquake catalogue for Turkey
Long-term magnetic anomalies and their possible relationship to the latest greater Chilean earthquakes in the context of the seismo-electromagnetic theory
Reliability-based strength modification factor for seismic design spectra considering structural degradation
Fault network reconstruction using agglomerative clustering: applications to southern Californian seismicity
Style of faulting of expected earthquakes in Italy as an input for seismic hazard modeling
The utility of earth science information in post-earthquake land-use decision-making: the 2010–2011 Canterbury earthquake sequence in Aotearoa New Zealand
Spatiotemporal changes of seismicity rate during earthquakes
Deep learning of the aftershock hysteresis effect based on the elastic dislocation theory
Measuring the seismic risk along the Nazca–South American subduction front: Shannon entropy and mutability
Macrozonation of seismic transient and permanent ground deformation of Iran
Spatial database and website for reservoir-triggered seismicity in Brazil
Seismic hazard maps of Peshawar District for various return periods
Contrasting seismic risk for Santiago, Chile, from near-field and distant earthquake sources
The spatial–temporal total friction coefficient of the fault viewed from the perspective of seismo-electromagnetic theory
Haekal A. Haridhi, Bor Shouh Huang, Kuo Liang Wen, Arif Mirza, Syamsul Rizal, Syahrul Purnawan, Ilham Fajri, Frauke Klingelhoefer, Char Shine Liu, Chao Shing Lee, Crispen R. Wilson, Tso-Ren Wu, Ichsan Setiawan, and Van Bang Phung
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 507–523, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-507-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-507-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Near the northern end of Sumatra, the horizontal movement Sumatran fault zone extended to its northern offshore. The movement of offshore fault segments trigger submarine landslides and induce tsunamis. Scenarios of a significant tsunami caused by the combined effect of an earthquake and its triggered submarine landslide at the coast were proposed in this study. Based on our finding, the landslide tsunami hazard assessment and early warning systems in this region should be urgently considered.
Lixin Wu, Yuan Qi, Wenfei Mao, Jingchen Lu, Yifan Ding, Boqi Peng, and Busheng Xie
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 231–249, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-231-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-231-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Multiple seismic anomalies were reported to be related to the 2015 Nepal earthquake. By sufficiently investigating both the space–time features and the physical models of the seismic anomalies, the coupling mechanisms of these anomalies in 3D space were revealed and an integrated framework to strictly root the sources of various anomalies was proposed. This study provides a practical solution for scrutinizing reliable seismic anomalies from diversified earthquake observations.
David Montiel-López, Sergio Molina, Juan José Galiana-Merino, and Igor Gómez
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 91–106, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-91-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-91-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
One of the most effective ways to describe the seismicity of a region is to map the b-value parameter of the Gutenberg-Richter law. This research proposes the study of the spatial cell-event distance distribution to define the smoothing kernel that controls the influence of the data. The results of this methodology depict tectonic stress changes before and after intense earthquakes happen, so it could enable operational earthquake forecasting (OEF) and tectonic source profiling.
Pierre Henry, M. Sinan Özeren, Nurettin Yakupoğlu, Ziyadin Çakir, Emmanuel de Saint-Léger, Olivier Desprez de Gésincourt, Anders Tengberg, Cristele Chevalier, Christos Papoutsellis, Nazmi Postacıoğlu, Uğur Dogan, Hayrullah Karabulut, Gülsen Uçarkuş, and M. Namık Çağatay
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3939–3956, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3939-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3939-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Seafloor instruments at the bottom of the Sea of Marmara recorded disturbances caused by earthquakes, addressing the minimum magnitude that may be recorded in the sediment. A magnitude 4.7 earthquake caused turbidity but little current. A magnitude 5.8 earthquake caused a mudflow and strong currents that spread sediment on the seafloor over several kilometers. However, most known earthquake deposits in the Sea of Marmara spread over larger zones and should correspond to larger earthquakes.
Nicola Alessandro Pino
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3787–3792, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3787-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3787-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The 1908 Messina Straits earthquake is one of the most severe seismic catastrophes in human history and is periodically back in the public discussion because of a project of building a bridge across the Straits. Some models proposed for the fault assume precursory subsidence preceding the quake, resulting in a structure significantly different from the previously debated ones and important hazard implications. The analysis of the historical sea level data allows the rejection of this hypothesis.
Jack N. Williams, Luke N. J. Wedmore, Åke Fagereng, Maximilian J. Werner, Hassan Mdala, Donna J. Shillington, Christopher A. Scholz, Folarin Kolawole, Lachlan J. M. Wright, Juliet Biggs, Zuze Dulanya, Felix Mphepo, and Patrick Chindandali
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3607–3639, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3607-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3607-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We use geologic and GPS data to constrain the magnitude and frequency of earthquakes that occur along active faults in Malawi. These faults slip in earthquakes as the tectonic plates on either side of the East African Rift in Malawi diverge. Low divergence rates (0.5–1.5 mm yr) and long faults (5–200 km) imply that earthquakes along these faults are rare (once every 1000–10 000 years) but could have high magnitudes (M 7–8). These data can be used to assess seismic risk in Malawi.
Mohamadreza Hosseini and Habib Rahimi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3571–3583, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3571-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3571-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Earthquakes, not only because of earth-shaking but also because of surface ruptures, are a serious threat to many human activities. Reducing earthquake losses and damage requires predicting the amplitude and location of ground movements and possible surface displacements in the future. Using the probabilistic approach and earthquake method, the surface displacement of the north Tabriz fault has been investigated, and the possible displacement in different scenarios has been estimated.
Mathilde Bøttger Sørensen, Torbjørn Sletten Haga, and Atle Nesje
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2022-266, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2022-266, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Most Norwegian landslides are triggered by rain or snow melt, and earthquakes have not been considered a relevant trigger mechanism even though some cases have been reported. Here we systematically search historical documents and databases and find 22 landslides induced by 8 large Norwegian earthquakes. The Norwegian earthquakes induce landslides at distances and over areas that are much larger than found for global datasets.
Luca Schilirò, Mauro Rossi, Federica Polpetta, Federica Fiorucci, Carolina Fortunato, and Paola Reichenbach
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2022-265, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2022-265, 2022
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
We present a database of the main scientific articles published in the last four decades on earthquake-triggered landslides (EQTLs) theme. To enhance data view, the articles were catalogued into a web-GIS, which was specifically designed to show different types of information, such as bibliometric information, relevant topic/sub-topic category(s) and addressed earthquake(s). Such information can be useful to get a general overview of the topic, especially for a broad readership.
Maria Francesca Ferrario
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3527–3542, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3527-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3527-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
I mapped over 5000 landslides triggered by a moment magnitude 6.0 earthquake that occurred in 2015 in the Sabah region (Malaysia). I analyzed their number, dimension and spatial distribution by dividing the territory into 1 km2 cells. I applied the Environmental Seismic Intensity (ESI-07) scale, which allows the categorization of earthquake damage due to environmental effects. The presented approach promotes the collaboration among the experts in landslide mapping and in ESI-07 assignment.
Kirsty Bayliss, Mark Naylor, Farnaz Kamranzad, and Ian Main
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3231–3246, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3231-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3231-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We develop probabilistic earthquake forecasts that include different spatial information (e.g. fault locations, strain rate) using a point process method. The performance of these models is tested over three different periods and compared with existing forecasts. We find that our models perform well, with those using simulated catalogues that make use of uncertainty in model parameters performing better, demonstrating potential to improve earthquake forecasting using Bayesian approaches.
Chiara Varone, Gianluca Carbone, Anna Baris, Maria Chiara Caciolli, Stefania Fabozzi, Carolina Fortunato, Iolanda Gaudiosi, Silvia Giallini, Marco Mancini, Luca Paolella, Maurizio Simionato, Pietro Sirianni, Roseline Spacagna, Francesco Stigliano, Daniel Tentori, Luca Martelli, Giuseppe Modoni, and Massimiliano Moscatelli
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2022-240, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2022-240, 2022
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
In 2012, Italy was struck by a seismic crisis characterized by two main shocks and relevant liquefaction events.Terre del Reno is one of the municipalities that experienced the most extensive liquefaction effects, thus it was chosen as case study for a project devoted to defining a new methodology to assess the liquefaction susceptibility. In this framework, 1800 geotechnical, geophysical and hydrogeological investigations were collected and stored in the publicly available PERL dataset.
Sasan Motaghed, Mozhgan Khazaee, Nasrollah Eftekhari, and Mohammad Mohammadi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2022-214, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2022-214, 2022
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
We modify the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) formulation by replacing the Gutenberg-Richter power law with the SCP non-extensive model for earthquake size distribution and call it NEPSHA.The proposed method (NEPSHA) is implemented in the Tehran region, and the results are compared with the classic PSHA method. The hazard curves show that NEPSHA gives a higher hazard, especially in the range of practical return periods.
Samuel Roeslin, Quincy Ma, Pavan Chigullapally, Joerg Wicker, and Liam Wotherspoon
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2022-227, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2022-227, 2022
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
This paper presents a new framework for the seismic damage and loss prediction for NZ residential buildings based on Canterbury Earthquake Sequence data. Data science techniques and machine learning were applied to develop models that can rank damage drivers, allowing decision-makers to prioritise future interventions. The model framework developed here can be updated with new data easily and rapidly to accurately predict building damage and the economic impact of future earthquake events.
Francesco Visini, Carlo Meletti, Andrea Rovida, Vera D'Amico, Bruno Pace, and Silvia Pondrelli
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2807–2827, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2807-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2807-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
As new data are collected, seismic hazard models can be updated and improved. In the framework of a project aimed to update the Italian seismic hazard model, we proposed a model based on the definition and parametrization of area sources. Using geological data, seismicity and other geophysical constraints, we delineated three-dimensional boundaries and activity rates of a seismotectonic zoning and explored the epistemic uncertainty by means of a logic-tree approach.
Mariana Belferman, Amotz Agnon, Regina Katsman, and Zvi Ben-Avraham
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2553–2565, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2553-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2553-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Internal fluid pressure in pores leads to breaking. With this mechanical principle and a correlation between historical water level changes and seismicity, we explore possible variants for water level reconstruction in the Dead Sea basin. Using the best-correlated variant, an additional indication is established regarding the location of historical earthquakes. This leads us to propose a certain forecast for the next earthquake in view of the fast and persistent dropping level of the Dead Sea.
Xuezhong Chen, Yane Li, and Lijuan Chen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2543–2551, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2543-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2543-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
When the tectonic stress in the crust increases, the b value will decrease, meaning the effects of tidal stresses are enhanced gradually. Increase in the tidal Coulomb failure stress might promote the occurrence of earthquakes, whereas its decrease could have an opposite effect. This observation may provide an insight into the processes leading to the Wenchuan earthquake and its precursors.
Fabrizio Marra, Alberto Frepoli, Dario Gioia, Marcello Schiattarella, Andrea Tertulliani, Monica Bini, Gaetano De Luca, and Marco Luppichini
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2445–2457, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2445-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2445-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Through the analysis of the morphostructural setting in which the seismicity of Rome is framed, we explain why the city should not expect to suffer damage from a big earthquake.
Chengjun Feng, Guangliang Gao, Shihuai Zhang, Dongsheng Sun, Siyu Zhu, Chengxuan Tan, and Xiaodong Ma
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2257–2287, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2257-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2257-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We show how FSP (Fault Slip Potential) software can be used in quantitative screening to estimate the fault slip potential in a region with some uncertainties in the ambient stress field and to assess the reactivation potential on these faults of presumably higher criticality in response to fluid injection. The case study of the Matouying enhanced geothermal system (EGS) field has important implications for deep geothermal exploitation in China, especially for the Gonghe EGS in Qinghai Province.
Patrick Oswald, Michael Strasser, Jens Skapski, and Jasper Moernaut
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2057–2079, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2057-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2057-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This study provides the first regional earthquake catalogue of the eastern Alps spanning 16 000 years by using three lake paleoseismic records. Recurrence statistics reveal that earthquakes recur every 1000–2000 years in an aperiodic pattern. The magnitudes of paleo-earthquakes exceed the historically documented values. This study estimates magnitude and source areas for severe paleo-earthquakes, and their shaking effects are explored in the broader study area.
Haoyu Wen, Hong-Jia Chen, Chien-Chih Chen, Massimo Pica Ciamarra, and Siew Ann Cheong
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1931–1954, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1931-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1931-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Recently, there has been growing interest from earth scientists to use the electric field deep underground to forecast earthquakes. We go one step further by using the electric fields, which can be directly measured, to separate/classify time periods with two labels only according to the statistical properties of the electric fields. By checking against historical earthquake records, we found time periods covered by one of the two labels to have significantly more frequent earthquakes.
Karma Tempa, Komal Raj Aryal, Nimesh Chettri, Giovanni Forte, and Dipendra Gautam
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1893–1909, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1893-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1893-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This paper performs site response analysis and studies soil amplification for Bhutan Himalaya. A sensitivity study is performed to assess the effect of variation in strong ground motion.
Tayeb Smail, Mohamed Abed, Ahmed Mebarki, and Milan Lazecky
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1609–1625, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1609-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1609-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The Sentinel-1 SAR datasets and Sentinel-2 data are used in this study to investigate the impact of natural hazards (earthquakes and landslides) on struck areas. In InSAR processing, the use of DInSAR, CCD methods, and the LiCSBAS tool permit generation of time-series analysis of ground changes. Three land failures were detected in the study area. CCD is suitable to map landslides that may remain undetected using DInSAR. In Grarem, the failure rim is clear in coherence and phase maps.
Jonatan Glehman and Michael Tsesarsky
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1451–1467, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1451-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1451-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Due to an insufficient number of recorded moderate–strong earthquakes in Israel, estimating the ground motions and the subsequent seismic hazard mitigation becomes a challenge. To fill this gap, we performed a series of 3-D numerical simulations of moderate and moderate–strong earthquakes. We examined the ground motions and their variability through a self-developed statistical model. However, the model cannot fully capture the ground motion variability due to the local seismotectonic setting.
Federico Mori, Amerigo Mendicelli, Gaetano Falcone, Gianluca Acunzo, Rose Line Spacagna, Giuseppe Naso, and Massimiliano Moscatelli
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 947–966, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-947-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-947-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This work addresses the problem of the ground motion estimation over large areas as an important tool for seismic-risk reduction policies. In detail, the near-real-time estimation of ground motion is a key issue for emergency system management. Starting from this consideration, the present work proposes the application of a machine learning approach to produce ground motion maps, using nine input proxies. Such proxies consider seismological, geophysical, and morphological parameters.
Dirsa Feliciano, Orlando Arroyo, Tamara Cabrera, Diana Contreras, Jairo Andrés Valcárcel Torres, and Juan Camilo Gómez Zapata
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2022-73, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2022-73, 2022
Revised manuscript under review for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
This article presents the number of damaged buildings and calculates the costs for an earthquake in Sabana Centro, a region of eleven towns in Colombia.
Paola Sbarra, Pierfrancesco Burrato, Valerio De Rubeis, Patrizia Tosi, Gianluca Valensise, Roberto Vallone, and Paola Vannoli
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2022-30, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2022-30, 2022
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
Earthquakes are fundamental for understanding how the Earth works and for assessing seismic risk. We can easily measure the magnitude and depth of todays' earthquakes, but can we do it also for pre-instrumental ones? We did it by analyzing the decay of earthquake effects (on buildings, people, objects) with epicentral distance. Our results may help deriving data that would be impossible to obtain otherwise, for any country where the earthquake history extends for centuries, such as Italy.
Margarida Ramalho, Luis Matias, Marta Neres, Michele M. C. Carafa, Alexandra Carvalho, and Paula Teves-Costa
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 117–138, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-117-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-117-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) is the most common tool used to decide on the acceptable seismic risk by society and mitigation measures. In slowly deforming regions, such Iberia, the earthquake generation models (EGMs) for PSHA suffer from great uncertainty. In this work we propose two sanity tests to be applied to EGMs, comparing the EGM moment release with constrains derived from GNSS observations or neotectonic modelling. Similar tests should be part of other region studies.
Janneke van Ginkel, Elmer Ruigrok, Jan Stafleu, and Rien Herber
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 41–63, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-41-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-41-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
A soft, shallow subsurface composition has the tendency to amplify earthquake waves, resulting in increased ground shaking. Therefore, this paper presents a workflow in order to obtain a map classifying the response of the subsurface based on local geology, earthquake signals, and background noise recordings for the Netherlands. The resulting map can be used as a first assessment in regions with earthquake hazard potential by mining or geothermal energy activities, for example.
Enrico Baglione, Stefano Lorito, Alessio Piatanesi, Fabrizio Romano, Roberto Basili, Beatriz Brizuela, Roberto Tonini, Manuela Volpe, Hafize Basak Bayraktar, and Alessandro Amato
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3713–3730, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3713-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3713-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We investigated the seismic fault structure and the rupture characteristics of the MW 6.6, 2 May 2020, Cretan Passage earthquake through tsunami data inverse modelling. Our results suggest a shallow crustal event with a reverse mechanism within the accretionary wedge rather than on the Hellenic Arc subduction interface. The study identifies two possible ruptures: a steeply sloping reverse splay fault and a back-thrust rupture dipping south, with a more prominent dip angle.
Navid Hooshangi, Ali Asghar Alesheikh, Mahdi Panahi, and Saro Lee
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3449–3463, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3449-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3449-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Task allocation under uncertain conditions is a key problem for agents attempting to achieve harmony in disaster environments. This paper presents an agent-based simulation to investigate task allocation considering appropriate spatial strategies to manage uncertainty in urban search and rescue (USAR) operations.
Thomas Chartier, Oona Scotti, Hélène Lyon-Caen, Keith Richard-Dinger, James H. Dieterich, and Bruce E. Shaw
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2733–2751, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2733-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2733-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
In order to evaluate the seismic risk, we first model the annual rate of occurrence of earthquakes on the faults near Istanbul. By using a novel modelling approach, we consider the fault system as a whole rather than each fault individually. We explore the hypotheses that are discussed in the scientific community concerning this fault system and compare the modelled results with local recorded data and a physics-based model, gaining new insights in particular on the largest possible earthquake.
Francisco J. Chávez-García, Hugo Monsalve-Jaramillo, and Joaquín Vila-Ortega
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2345–2354, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2345-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2345-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We analyze earthquake damage observed in Armenia, Colombia, during the 1999 event. We investigate the reasons behind the damage and the possibility of predicting it using vulnerability studies. We show that vulnerability was a major factor and that observed damage was predicted by a vulnerability study made in 1993, which sadly had no societal impact. The comparison between two vulnerability studies, in 1993 and 2004, suggests that Armenia may still be highly vulnerable to future earthquakes.
Andrea Antonucci, Andrea Rovida, Vera D'Amico, and Dario Albarello
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2299–2311, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2299-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2299-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We present a probabilistic approach for integrating incomplete intensity distributions by means of the Bayesian combination of estimates provided by intensity prediction equations (IPEs) and data documented at nearby localities, accounting for the relevant uncertainties. The performance of the proposed methodology is tested at 28 Italian localities with long and rich seismic histories and for the strong 1980 and 2009 earthquakes in Italy. An application of this approach is also illustrated.
Changsheng Jiang, Libo Han, Feng Long, Guijuan Lai, Fengling Yin, Jinmeng Bi, and Zhengya Si
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2233–2244, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2233-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2233-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The b value is a controversial parameter that has the potential to identify the location of an upcoming strong earthquake. We conducted a case study using a newly developed algorithm that can overcome the subjectivity of calculation. The results confirmed the scientific significance of the b value for seismic hazard analysis and revealed that fluid intrusion may have been the cause of the overactive aftershocks of the studied earthquake.
Kristján Jónasson, Bjarni Bessason, Ásdís Helgadóttir, Páll Einarsson, Gunnar B. Guðmundsson, Bryndís Brandsdóttir, Kristín S. Vogfjörd, and Kristín Jónsdóttir
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2197–2214, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2197-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2197-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Local information on epicentres and Mw magnitudes from international catalogues have been combined to compile a catalogue of earthquakes in and near Iceland in the years 1900–2019. The magnitudes are either moment-tensor modelled or proxy values obtained with regression on Ms or exceptionally on mb. The catalogue also covers the northern Mid-Atlantic Ridge with less accurate locations but similarly harmonised magnitudes.
Onur Tan
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2059–2073, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2059-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2059-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Turkey is one of the most seismically active regions. In this study, an extended and homogenized earthquake catalogue, which is essential for seismic hazard studies, is presented in an easily manageable format for a wide range of researchers in earth sciences. It is the most comprehensive catalogue for Turkey and contains approximately ~ 378 000 events between 1900 and 2018.
Enrique Guillermo Cordaro, Patricio Venegas-Aravena, and David Laroze
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1785–1806, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1785-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1785-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We developed a methodology that generates free externally disturbed magnetic variations in ground magnetometers close to the Chilean convergent margin. Spectral analysis (~ mHz) and magnetic anomalies increased prior to large Chilean earthquakes (Maule 2010, Mw 8.8; Iquique 2014, Mw 8.2; Illapel 2015, Mw 8.3). These findings relate to microcracks within the lithosphere due to stress state changes. This physical evidence should be thought of as a last stage of the earthquake preparation process.
Ali Rodríguez-Castellanos, Sonia E. Ruiz, Edén Bojórquez, Miguel A. Orellana, and Alfredo Reyes-Salazar
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1445–1460, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1445-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1445-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Seismic design guidelines for building structures present simplified approaches to include relevant structural behavior that affects the structural response through design spectra modification factors. The objective of this study is to propose simplified mathematical expressions to modify the design spectra to consider the stiffness and strength-degrading behavior of structures. Additionally, these expressions are proposed to be included in the next version of the Mexico City Building Code.
Yavor Kamer, Guy Ouillon, and Didier Sornette
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 3611–3625, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-3611-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-3611-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Earthquakes cluster in space highlighting fault structures in the crust. We introduce a method to identify such patterns. The method follows a bottom-up approach that starts from many small clusters and, by repeated mergings, produces a larger, less complex structure. We test the resulting fault network model by investigating its ability to forecast the location of earthquakes that were not used in the study. We envision that our method can contribute to future studies relying on fault patterns.
Silvia Pondrelli, Francesco Visini, Andrea Rovida, Vera D'Amico, Bruno Pace, and Carlo Meletti
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 3577–3592, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-3577-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-3577-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We used 100 years of seismicity in Italy to predict the hypothetical tectonic style of future earthquakes, with the purpose of using this information in a new seismic hazard model. To squeeze all possible information out of the available data, we created a chain of criteria to be applied in the input and output selection processes. The result is a list of cases from very clear ones, e.g., extensional tectonics in the central Apennines, to completely random tectonics for future seismic events.
Mark C. Quigley, Wendy Saunders, Chris Massey, Russ Van Dissen, Pilar Villamor, Helen Jack, and Nicola Litchfield
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 3361–3385, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-3361-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-3361-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
This paper examines the roles of earth science information (data, knowledge, advice) in land-use decision-making in Christchurch, New Zealand, in response to the 2010–2011 Canterbury earthquake sequence. A detailed timeline of scientific activities and information provisions relative to key decision-making events is provided. We highlight the importance and challenges of the effective provision of science to decision makers in times of crisis.
Chieh-Hung Chen, Yang-Yi Sun, Strong Wen, Peng Han, Li-Ching Lin, Huaizhong Yu, Xuemin Zhang, Yongxin Gao, Chi-Chia Tang, Cheng-Horng Lin, and Jann-Yenq Liu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 3333–3341, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-3333-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-3333-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Scientists demystify stress changes before mainshocks and utilize the foreshocks as an indicator. We investigate changes in seismicity far from mainshocks by using tens of thousands of M ≥ 2 quakes for 10 years in Taiwan and Japan. The results show that wide areas exhibit increased seismicity occurring more than several times in areas of the fault rupture. The stressed crust triggers resonance at frequencies varying from ~ 5 × 10–4 to ~ 10–3 Hz that is supported by the resonant frequency model.
Jin Chen, Hong Tang, and Wenkai Chen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 3117–3134, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-3117-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-3117-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of aftershocks around the fault are analyzed according to the stress changes after the main earthquake. The model can be used to predict the multi-timescale anisotropy distribution of aftershocks fairly. The finite fault model of the main earthquake is used in the construction of the prediction model. The model is a deep neural network; the inputs are the stress components of each point; and the output is the probability of an aftershock.
Eugenio E. Vogel, Felipe G. Brevis, Denisse Pastén, Víctor Muñoz, Rodrigo A. Miranda, and Abraham C.-L. Chian
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2943–2960, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2943-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2943-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The Nazca–South American subduction front is one of the most active in the world. We have chosen four zones along this front to do a comparative study on possible different dynamics. Data are public and well tested in the last decades. The methods are original since mutability and Shannon entropy are not always used in this kind of problem, and, to our knowledge, this is the first time they are combined. The north of Chile could be a zone with greater chances of a large earthquake.
Saeideh Farahani, Behrouz Behnam, and Ahmad Tahershamsi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2889–2903, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2889-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2889-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Iran is located on the Alpide earthquake belt, in the active collision zone between the Eurasian and Arabian plates. Due to the rapid demands for new lifelines, a risk assessment should be performed to reduce the probable damage in advance. In this study, a precise GIS-based map is proposed by employing the HAZUS methodology.
Eveline Sayão, George Sand França, Maristela Holanda, and Alexandro Gonçalves
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2001–2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2001-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2001-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
One of the biggest challenges in studying reservoir-triggered seismicity (RTS) is to identify factors that can trigger seismicity. A spatial database and a web viewer were created, gathering the data pertinent to the RTS study. Results were obtained in processing these data; for example, the occurrence of RTS increases with the height of the dam, the minimum limiting volume value is 1 × 10−4 km3 for occurrence of RTS, and for geology no correlations were found, among other results.
Khalid Mahmood, Naveed Ahmad, Usman Khan, and Qaiser Iqbal
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1639–1661, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1639-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1639-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The paper presents probabilistic-based seismic hazard maps prepared for Peshawar for various return periods using classical PSHA. The study considered both shallow and deep earthquakes, represented by area sources, while using recent ground motion prediction equations. The hazard map for a 475-year return period was compared with the hazard map given in the Building Code of Pakistan; they were found to be in close agreement. The obtained maps may be used for infrastructure risk assessment.
Ekbal Hussain, John R. Elliott, Vitor Silva, Mabé Vilar-Vega, and Deborah Kane
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1533–1555, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1533-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1533-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Many of the rapidly expanding cities around the world are located near active tectonic faults that have not produced an earthquake in recent memory. But these faults are generally small, and so most previous seismic-hazard analysis has focussed on large, more distant faults. In this paper we show that a moderate-size earthquake on a fault close to the city of Santiago in Chile has a greater impact on the city than a great earthquake on the tectonic boundary in the ocean, about a 100 km away.
Patricio Venegas-Aravena, Enrique G. Cordaro, and David Laroze
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1485–1496, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1485-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1485-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Over the past few years, a number of data have emerged on predicting large earthquakes using the magnetic field. These measurements are becoming strongly supported by rock electrification mechanisms experimentally and theoretically in seismo-electromagnetic theory. However, the processes that occur within the faults have yet to be elucidated. That is why this work theoretically links the friction changes of the faults with the lithospheric magnetic anomalies that surround the faults.
Cited articles
Abrahamson, N. A. and Bommer, J. J.: Probability and uncertainty in seismic
hazard analysis, Earthq. Spect., 21, 603–607, https://doi.org/10.1193/1.1899158, 2005.
Aki, K.: Asperities, barriers, characteristic earthquakes and strong motion
prediction, J. Geophys. Res.-Solid, 89, 5867–5872, https://doi.org/10.1029/JB089iB07p05867, 1984.
Aki, K.: Generation and propagation of G waves from the Niigata Earthquake
of June 16 1964. Part 2. Estimation of earthquake movement, released energy,
and stress-strain drop from the G wave spectrum, Bull. Earthq. Res. Inst., 44, 73–88, 1966.
Aksu, A. E., Calon, T. J., Hiscott, R. N., and Yasar, D.: Anatomy of the
North Anatolian Fault Zone in the Marmara Sea, Western Turkey: extensional
basins above a continental transform, GSA Today, 10, 3–7, 2000.
Allen, C. R.: The tectonic environments of seismically active and inactive
areas along the San Andreas fault system, Stanford University Publications,
Geol. Sci., 11, 70–80, 1968.
Alpar, B. and Yaltırak, C.: Characteristic features of the North Anatolian Fault in the eastern Marmara region and its tectonic evolution, Mar. Geol., 190, 329–350, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0025-3227(02)00353-5, 2002.
Altınok, Y. and Alpar, B.: Marmara Island earthquakes, of 1265 and 1935;
Turkey, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 6, 999–1006,
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-6-999-2006, 2006.
Altınok, Y., Alpar, B., and Yaltırak, C.: Şarköy-Mürefte 1912 earthquake's tsunami, extension of the associated faulting in the Marmara Sea, Turkey, J. Seismol., 7, 329–346,
https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1024581022222, 2003.
Altinok, Y., Alpar, B., Özer, N., and Aykurt, H.: Revision of the tsunami catalogue affecting Turkish coasts and surrounding regions, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 11, 273–291, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-11-273-2011, 2011.
Ambraseys, N.: The seismic activity of the Marmara Sea region over the last
2000 years, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am., 92, 1–18, https://doi.org/10.1785/0120000843, 2002.
Ambraseys, N. N. and Jackson, J. A.: Seismicity of the Sea of Marmara (Turkey) since 1500, Geophys. J. Int., 141, F1–F6,
https://doi.org/10.1046/j.1365-246x.2000.00137.x, 2000.
Ambraseys, N. N. N. and Finkel, C. F.: Seismicity of Turkey and Adjacent Areas: A Historical Review 1500–1800, MS Eren, Istanbul, Turkey, 1995.
Annaka, T., Satake, K., Sakakiyama, T., Yanagisawa, K., and Shuto, N.:
Logic-tree approach for probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis and its
applications to the Japanese coasts, in: Tsunami and its hazards in the
indian and pacific oceans, Birkhäuser, Basel, 577–592,
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-7643-8364-0_17, 2007.
Armijo, R., Meyer, B., Hubert, A., and Barka, A.: Westward propagation of
the North Anatolian fault into the northern Aegean: Timing and kinematics,
Geology, 27, 267–270, https://doi.org/10.1130/0091-7613(1999)027<0267:WPOTNA>2.3.CO;2, 1999.
Armijo, R., Meyer, B., Navarro, S., King, G., and Barka, A.: Asymmetric slip
partitioning in the Sea of Marmara pull-apart: A clue to propagation processes of the North Anatolian fault?, Terra Nova, 14, 80–86, https://doi.org/10.1046/j.1365-3121.2002.00397.x, 2002.
Armijo, R., Pondard, N., Meyer, B., Uçarkus, G., de Lépinay, B. M., Malavieille, J., Dominguez, S., Gustcher, M. A., Schmidt, S., Beck, C., Cagatay, N., Çakır, Z., Imren, C., Eris, K., Natalin, B., Özalaybey, S., Tolun, L., Lefèvre, I., Seeber, L., Gasperini, L., Rangin, C., Emre, O., and Sarikavak, K.: Submarine fault scarps in the Sea of Marmara pull-apart (North Anatolian Fault): Implications for seismic hazard in Istanbul, Geochem. Geophy., Geosy., 6, Q06009, https://doi.org/10.1029/2004GC000896, 2005.
Aytore, B., Yalciner, A. C., Zaytsev, A., Cankaya, Z. C., and Suzen, M. L.:
Assessment of tsunami resilience of Haydarpaşa Port in the Sea of Marmara by high-resolution numerical modeling, Earth Planets Space, 68, 139, https://doi.org/10.1186/s40623-016-0508-z, 2016.
Barka, A.: The 17 august 1999 Izmit earthquake, Science, 285, 1858–1859,
https://doi.org/10.1126/science.285.5435.1858, 1999.
Bayraktar, H. B.: Tuzla-PTHA, https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.12033789, 2020.
Bohnhoff, M., Bulut, F., Dresen, G., Malin, P. E., Eken, T., and Aktar, M.:
An earthquake gap south of Istanbul, Nat. Commun., 4, 1999,
https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms2999, 2013.
Cankaya, Z. C., Suzen, M. L., Yalciner, A. C., Kolat, C., Zaytsev, A., and
Aytore, B.: A new GIS-based tsunami risk evaluation: MeTHuVA (METU tsunami
human vulnerability assessment) at Yenikapı, Istanbul, Earth Planets
Space, 68, 133, https://doi.org/10.1186/s40623-016-0507-0, 2016.
Cramer, C. H., Petersen, M. D., Cao, T., Toppozada, T. R., and Reichle, M.:
A time-dependent probabilistic seismic-hazard model for California, Bull.
Seismol. Soc. Am., 90, 1–21, https://doi.org/10.1785/0119980087, 2000.
Davis, P. M., Jackson, D. D., and Kagan, Y. Y.: The longer it has been since
the last earthquake, the longer the expected time till the next?, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am., 79, 1439–1456, 1989.
Earthquake Research Committee: Evaluation method and its application for the
probability of long-term earthquke occurrence, Headquarters for Earthquake Research Promotion, Tokyo, 2001.
Ellsworth, W. L., Matthews, M. V., Nadeau, R. M., Nishenko, S. P., Reasenberg, P. A., and Simpson, R. W.: A physically-based earthquake
recurrence model for estimation of long-term earthquake probabilities, US Geol. Surv. Open-File Rept. 99, US Geological Survey, Menlo Park, CA, 23 pp., 1999.
Emre, Ö., Duman, T. Y., Özalp, S., Elmacı, H., Olgun, Ş., and
Şaroğlu, F.: Active fault map of Turkey with explanatory text, General Directorate of Mineral Research and Exploration Special Publication Series, Ankara, Turkey, p. 30, 2013.
Erdik, M., Demircioglu, M., Sesetyan, K., Durukal, E., and Siyahi, B.:
Earthquake hazard in Marmara region, Turkey, Soil Dynam. Earthq. Eng., 24, 605–631, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.soildyn.2004.04.003, 2004.
Ergintav, S., Reilinger, R. E., Çakmak, R., Floyd, M., Cakir, Z., Doğan, U., and Özener, H.: Istanbul's earthquake hot spots: Geodetic
constraints on strain accumulation along faults in the Marmara seismic gap, Geophys. Res. Lett., 41, 5783–5788, https://doi.org/10.1002/2014GL060985, 2014.
Flerit, F., Armijo, R., King, G. C. P., Meyer, B., and Barka, A.: Slip
partitioning in the Sea of Marmara pull-apart determined from GPS velocity
vectors, Geophys. J. Int., 154, 1–7, https://doi.org/10.1046/j.1365-246X.2003.01899.x, 2003.
Flerit, F., Armijo, R., King, G., and Meyer, B.: The mechanical interaction
between the propagating North Anatolian Fault and the back-arc extension in
the Aegean, Earth Planet. Sc. Lett., 224, 347–362,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epsl.2004.05.028, 2004.
Gasperini, L., Polonia, A., Çağatay, M. N., Bortoluzzi, G., and
Ferrante, V.: Geological slip rates along the North Anatolian Fault in the
Marmara region, Tectonics, 30, TC6001, https://doi.org/10.1029/2011TC002906, 2011.
Geist, E. L. and Lynett, P. J.: Source processes for the probabilistic
assessment of tsunami hazards, Oceanography, 27, 86–93, https://doi.org/10.5670/oceanog.2014.43, 2014.
Geist, E. L. and Parsons, T.: Probabilistic analysis of tsunami hazards, Nat. Hazards, 37, 277–314, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-005-4646-z, 2006.
Goda, K. and De Risi, R.: Multi-hazard loss estimation for shaking and tsunami using stochastic rupture sources, Int. J. Disast. Risk Reduct., 28, 539–554, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2018.01.002, 2018.
Godinho, J.: Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis an Introduction to
Theoretical Basis and Applied Methodology, Msc thesis, University of
Patras, Greece, 2007.
González, F. I., Geist, E. L., Jaffe, B., Kânoğlu, U., Mofjeld,
H., Synolakis, C. E., Titov, V. V., Arcas, D., Bellomo, D., Carlton, D., Horning, T., Johnson, J., Newman, J., Parsons, T., Peters, R., Peterson, C., Priest, G., Venturato, A., Weber, J., Wong, F., and Yalciner, A.: Probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment at seaside, Oregon, for near-and far-field seismic sources, J. Geophys. Res.-Oceans, 114, C11023,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2008JC005132, 2009.
Gonzalez, F. I., LeVeque, R. J., and Adams, L. M.: Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment (PTHA) for Crescent City, CA, Final Report for Phase I, University of Washington, Department of Applied Mathmatics, Washington, available at: http://hdl.handle.net/1773/25916 (last access: 18 April 2019), 2013.
Grezio, A., Babeyko, A., Baptista, M. A., Behrens, J., Costa, A., Davies, G., Geist, E. L., Glimsdal, S., González, F. I., Griffin, J., Harbitz, C. B., LeVeque, R. J., Lorito, S., Løvholt, F., Omira, R., Mueller, C., Paris, R., Parsons, T., Polet, J., Power, W., Selva, J., Sørensen, M. B., Thio, H. K., and Harbitz, C. B.: Probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis: Multiple sources and global applications, Rev. Geophys., 55, 1158–1198, https://doi.org/10.1002/2017RG000579, 2017.
Guler, H. G., Arikawa, T., Oei, T., and Yalciner, A. C.: Performance of rubble mound breakwaters under tsunami attack, a case study: Haydarpasa Port, Istanbul, Turkey, Coast. Eng., 104, 43–53, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.coastaleng.2015.07.007, 2015.
Gutenberg, B. and Richter, C. F.: Frequency of earthquakes in California, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am., 34, 185–188, 1944.
Hancilar, U.: Identification of elements at risk for a credible tsunami event for Istanbul, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 12, 107–119,
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-12-107-2012, 2012.
Hébert, H., Schindele, F., Altinok, Y., Alpar, B., and Gazioglu, C.: Tsunami hazard in the Marmara Sea (Turkey): a numerical approach to discuss active faulting and impact on the Istanbul coastal areas, Mar. Geol., 215, 23–43, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.margeo.2004.11.006 ,2005.
Hergert, T. and Heidbach, O.: Slip-rate variability and distributed deformation in the Marmara Sea fault system, Nat. Geosci., 3, 132–135, https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo739, 2010.
Hergert, T., Heidbach, O., Bécel, A., and Laigle, M.: Geomechanical model of the Marmara Sea region – I. 3-D contemporary kinematics, Geophys. J. Int., 185, 1073–1089, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-246X.2011.04991.x, 2011.
Horspool, N., Pranantyo, I., Griffin, J., Latief, H., Natawidjaja, D. H., Kongko, W., Cipta, A., Bustaman, B., Anugrah, S. D., and Thio, H. K.: A
probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment for Indonesia, Nat. Hazards Earth
Syst. Sci., 14, 3105–3122, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-3105-2014, 2014.
Imamura, F.: Tsunami Numerical Simulation with the Staggered Leap-frog Scheme (Numerical code of TUNAMI-N1), School of Civil Engineering, Asian Institute Technical and Disaster Control Research Center, Tohoku University, Tohoku, 1989.
Imamura, F., Yalçıner, A. C., and Özyurt, G.: TUNAMI-N2:
Tsunami Modelling Manual, available at: http://www.tsunami.civil.tohoku.ac.jp/hokusai3/J/projects/manual-ver-3.1.pdf
(last access: 20 March 2019), 2001.
Imren, C., Le Pichon, X., Rangin, C., Demirbağ, E., Ecevitoğlu, B.,
and Görür, N.: The North Anatolian Fault within the Sea of Marmara:
a new interpretation based on multi-channel seismic and multi-beam bathymetry data, Earth Planet. Sc. Lett., 186, 143–158, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0012-821X(01)00241-2, 2001.
Insel, I.: The Effects of the Material Density and Dimensions of the Landslide on the Generated Tsunamis, Msc Thesis, Middle East Technical University, Ankara, Turkey, 2009.
Jonkman, S. N. and Penning-Rowsell, E.: Human instability in Flood Flows, J. Am. Water Resour. Assoc., 44, 1208–1218, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1752-1688.2008.00217.x, 2008.
Kanamori, H.: The diversity of the physics of earthquakes, Proc. Japan Acad. Ser. B, 80, 297–316, https://doi.org/10.2183/pjab.80.297, 2004.
Kaneko, F.: A simulation analysis of possible tsunami affecting the Istanbul
coast, Turkey, in: International Workshop on Tsunami Hazard Assessment and
Management in Bangladesh, 21–22 January 2009, Dhaka, Bangladesh, 2009.
Karabulut, H., Bouin, M. P., Bouchon, M., Dietrich, M., Cornou, C., and Aktar, M.: The seismicity in the eastern Marmara Sea after the 17 August 1999 Izmit earthquake, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am., 92, 387–393, https://doi.org/10.1785/0120000820, 2002.
Karabulut, H., Özalaybey, S., Taymaz, T., Aktar, M., Selvi, O., and
Kocaoğlu, A.: A tomographic image of the shallow crustal structure in the Eastern Marmara, Geophys. Res. Lett, 30, 2277, https://doi.org/10.1029/2003GL018074, 2003.
KOERI – Kandilli Observatory and Earthquake Research Institute: Bosphorus Univercity: Bogazici University Kandilli Observatory And Earthquake Research Institute, International Federation of Digital Seismograph Networks, Dataset/Seismic Network, https://doi.org/10.7914/SN/KO, 2001.
Latcharote, P., Suppasri, A., Imamura, F., Aytore, B., and Yalciner, A. C.:
Possible worst-case tsunami scenarios around the Marmara Sea from combined
earthquake and landslide sources, in: Global Tsunami Science: Past and
Future, Vol. I, Birkhäuser, Cham, 3823–3846, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00024-016-1411-z, 2016.
Le Pichon, X., Şengör, A. M. C., Demirbağ, E., Rangin, C., Imren, C., Armijo, R., Görür, N., Çağatay, N., de Lépinay, B. M., Meyer, B., Saatçılar, R., and Tok, B.: The active main Marmara fault, Earth Planet. Sc. Lett., 192, 595–616, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0012-821X(01)00449-6, 2001.
Le Pichon, X., Chamot-Rooke, N., Rangin, C., and Sengör, A. M. C.: The
North Anatolian fault in the sea of Marmara, J. Geophys. Res.-Solid, 108, 2179, https://doi.org/10.1029/2002JB001862, 2003.
Le Pichon, X., Imren, C., Rangin, C., Şengör, A. C., and Siyako, M.:
The South Marmara Fault, Int. J. Earth Sci., 103, 219–231, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00531-013-0950-0, 2014.
Le Pichon, X., Şengör, A. C., Kende, J., İmren, C., Henry, P., Grall, C., and Karabulut, H.: Propagation of a strike-slip plate boundary
within an extensional environment: the westward propagation of the North
Anatolian Fault, Can. J. Earth Sci., 53, 1416–1439, https://doi.org/10.1139/cjes-2015-0129, 2015.
Lorito, S., Selva, J., Basili, R., Romano, F., Tiberti, M. M., and Piatanesi, A.: Probabilistic hazard for seismically induced tsunamis: accuracy and feasibility of inundation maps, Geophys. J. Int., 200, 574–588, https://doi.org/10.1093/gji/ggu408, 2015.
Løvholt, F., Glimsdal, S., Harbitz, C. B., Zamora, N., Nadim, F., Peduzzi, P., and Smebye, H.: Tsunami hazard and exposure on the global scale, Earth-Sci. Rev., 110, 58–73, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.earscirev.2011.10.002, 2012.
Løvholt, F., Griffin, J., and Salgado-Gálvez, M.: Tsunami hazard and
risk assessment at a global scale, Encyclopedia of complexity and systems
science, 1–34, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-27737-5_642-1, 2015.
Lynett, P. J., Gately, K., Wilson, R., Montoya, L., Arcas, D., Aytore, B.,
and David, C. G.: Inter-model analysis of tsunami-induced coastal currents, Ocean Model., 114, 14–32, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ocemod.2017.04.003, 2017.
Matthews, M. V., Ellsworth, W. L., and Reasenberg, P. A.: A Brownian model
for recurrent earthquakes, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am., 92, 2233–2250, https://doi.org/10.1785/0120010267, 2002.
McNeill, L. C., Mille, A., Minshull, T. A., Bull, J. M., Kenyon, N. H., and
Ivanov, M.: Extension of the North Anatolian Fault into the North Aegean Trough: Evidence for transtension, strain partitioning, and analogues for
Sea of Marmara basin models, Tectonics, 23, TC2016, https://doi.org/10.1029/2002TC001490, 2004.
Meade, B. J., Hager, B. H., McClusky, S. C., Reilinger, R. E., Ergintav, S.,
Lenk, O., Barka, A., and Özener, H.: Estimates of seismic potential in the Marmara Sea region from block models of secular deformation constrained by Global Positioning System measurements, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am., 92, 208–215, https://doi.org/10.1785/0120000837, 2002.
Murru, M., Akinci, A., Falcone, G., Pucci, S., Console, R., and Parsons, T.:
M≥7 earthquake rupture forecast and time-dependent probability for the
Sea of Marmara region Turkey, J. Geophys. Res.-Solid, 121, 2679–2707, https://doi.org/10.1002/2015JB012595, 2016.
NAMI DANCE: Manual of Numerical Code NAMI DANCE, available at:
http://namidance.ce.metu.edu.tr (last access: 12 October 2018), 2011.
NTHMP: Proceedings and Results of the National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation
Program 2015 Tsunami Current Modeling Workshop, Portland, Oregon, 2015.
Oglesby, D. D. and Mai, P. M.: Fault geometry, rupture dynamics and ground
motion from potential earthquakes on the North Anatolian Fault under the Sea
of Marmara, Geophys. J. Int., 188, 1071–1087, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-246X.2011.05289.x, 2012.
Okada, Y.: Surface deformation due to shear and tensile faults in a half-space, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am., 75, 1135–1154, 1985.
Okay, A. I., Demirbağ, E., Kurt, H., Okay, N., and Kuşçu, İ.: An active, deep marine strike-slip basin along the North Anatolian fault in Turkey, Tectonics, 18, 129–147, https://doi.org/10.1029/1998TC900017, 1999.
Ozer Sozdinler, C., Necmioglu, O., Bayraktar, H. B., and Ozel, N. M.: Tectonic Origin Tsunami Scenario Database for the Marmara Region, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2019-186, in review, 2019.
Parsons, T.: Recalculated probability of M≥7 earthquakes beneath the Sea of Marmara, Turkey, J. Geophys. Res.-Solid, 109, B05304, https://doi.org/10.1029/2003JB002667, 2004.
Petersen, M. D., Cao, T., Campbell, K. W., and Frankel, A. D.: Time-independent and time-dependent seismic hazard assessment for the State
of California: Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast Model 1.0, Seismol. Res. Lett., 78, 99–109, https://doi.org/10.1785/gssrl.78.1.99, 2007.
Pondard, N., Armijo, R., King, G. C., Meyer, B., and Flerit, F.: Fault
interactions in the Sea of Marmara pull-apart (North Anatolian Fault): earthquake clustering and propagating earthquake sequences, Geophys. J. Int., 171, 1185–1197, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-246X.2007.03580.x, 2007.
Reilinger, R., McClusky, S., Vernant, P., Lawrence, S., Ergintav, S.,
Cakmak, R., Ozener, H., Kadirov, F., Guliev, I., Stepanyan, R., Nadariya, M., Hahubia, G., Mahmoud, S., Sakr, K. ArRajehi, A., Paradissis, D., Al-Aydrus, A., Prilepin, M., Guseva, T., Evren, E., Dmitrotsa, A., Filikov, S. V., Gomez, F., Al-Ghazzi, R., and Karam, G. : GPS constraints on continental deformation in the Africa-Arabia-Eurasia continental collision zone and implications for the dynamics of plate interactions, J. Geophys. Res.-Solid, 111, B05411, https://doi.org/10.1029/2005JB004051, 2006.
Ren, J. and Zhang, S.: Estimation of recurrence interval of large earthquakes on the Central Longmen Shan fault zone based on seismic moment accumulation/release model, Scient. World J., 2013, 458341, https://doi.org/10.1155/2013/458341, 2013.
Rikitake, T.: Probability of earthquake occurrence as estimated from crustal
strain, Tectonophysics, 23, 299–312, https://doi.org/10.1016/0040-1951(74)90029-8, 1974.
Ryall, A., Slemmons, D. B., and Gedney, L. D.: Seismicity, tectonism, and
surface faulting in the western United States during historic time, Bull.
Seismol. Soc. Am., 56, 1105–1135, 1966.
Schwartz, D. P. and Coppersmith, K. J.: Fault behavior and characteristic
earthquakes: Examples from the Wasatch and San Andreas fault zones, J.
Geophys. Res.-Solid, 89, 5681–5698, https://doi.org/10.1029/JB089iB07p05681, 1984.
Selva, J., Tonini, R., Molinari, I., Tiberti, M. M., Romano, F., Grezio, A.,
and Lorito, S.: Quantification of source uncertainties in seismic probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis (SPTHA), Geophys. J. Int., 205, 1780–1803, https://doi.org/10.1093/gji/ggw107, 2016.
Şengör, A. C., Grall, C., İmren, C., Le Pichon, X., Görür, N., Henry, P., and Siyako, M.: The geometry of the North
Anatolian transform fault in the Sea of Marmara and its temporal evolution:
implications for the development of intracontinental transform faults, Can. J. Earth Sci., 51, 222–242, https://doi.org/10.1139/cjes-2013-0160, 2014.
Shuto, N., Goto, C., and Imamura, F.: Numerical simulation as a means of
warning for near-field tsunamis, Coast. Eng. Japan, 33, 173–193, https://doi.org/10.1080/05785634.1990.11924532, 1990.
Sørensen, M. B., Spada, M., Babeyko, A., Wiemer, S., and Grünthal, G.: Probabilistic tsunami hazard in the Mediterranean Sea, J. Geophys. Res.-Solid, 117, B01305, https://doi.org/10.1029/2010JB008169, 2012.
Stein, R. S., Barka, A. A., and Dieterich, J. H.: Progressive failure on the
North Anatolian fault since 1939 by earthquake stress triggering, Geophys. J. Int., 128, 594–604, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-246X.1997.tb05321.x, 1997.
Synolakis, C. E., Bernard, E. N., Titov, V. V., Kânoğlu, U., and
González, F. I.: Standards, Criteria, and Procedures for NOAA Evaluation
of Tsunami Numerical Models, NOAA OAR Special Report, Contribution No. 3053, NOAA/OAR/PMEL, Seattle, Washington, 55 pp., 2007.
Synolakis, C. E., Bernard, E. N., Titov, V. V., Kânoğlu, U., and
Gonzalez, F. I.: Validation and verification of tsunami numerical models,
in: Tsunami Science Four Years after the 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami,
Birkhäuser, Basel, 2197–2228, 2008.
Takagi, H., Mikami, T., Fujii, D., Esteban, M., and Kurobe, S.: Mangrove
forest against dyke-break-induced tsunami on rapidly subsiding coasts, Nat.
Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 1629–1638, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-1629-2016, 2016.
Tinti, S., Armigliato, A., Manucci, A., Pagnoni, G., Zaniboni, F., Yalçiner, A. C., and Altinok, Y.: The generating mechanisms of the August 17, 1999 Izmit bay (Turkey) tsunami: regional (tectonic) and local (mass instabilities) causes, Mar. Geol., 225, 311–330,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.margeo.2005.09.010, 2006.
Tufekci, D., Suzen, M. L., Yalciner, A. C., and Zaytsev, A.: Revised MeTHuVA
method for assessment of tsunami human vulnerability of Bakirkoy district,
Istanbul, Nat. Hazards, 90, 943–974, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-017-3082-1, 2018.
Utkucu, M., Kanbur, Z., Alptekin, Ö., and Sünbül, F.: Seismic
behaviour of the North Anatolian Fault beneath the Sea of Marmara (NW Turkey): implications for earthquake recurrence times and future seismic
hazard, Nat. Hazards, 50, 45–71, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-008-9317-4, 2009.
Velioglu, D.: Advanced Two and Three Dimensional Tsunami Models: Benchmarking and Validation, Msc. Thesis, Middle East Technical University, Ankara, Turkey, 2009.
Wells, D. L. and Coppersmith, K. J.: New empirical relationships among
magnitude, rupture length, rupture width, rupture area, and surface displacement, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am., 84, 974–1002, 1994.
Wessel, P. and Smith, W. H.: New, improved version of Generic Mapping Tools
released, Eos Trans. Am. Geophys. Union, 79, 579–579, https://doi.org/10.1029/98EO00426, 1998.
WGCEP – Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities: Earthquake
probabilities in the San Francisco Bay region: 2002–2031, US Geological
Survey Open-File Report 03-214, US Geological Survey, Menlo Park, CA, 2003.
Wong, H. K., Lüdmann, T., Ulug, A., and Görür, N.: The Sea of
Marmara: a plate boundary sea in an escape tectonic regime, Tectonophysics,
244, 231–250, https://doi.org/10.1016/0040-1951(94)00245-5, 1995.
Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities: Earthquake probabilities in the San Francisco Bay Region: 2000 to 2030 a summary of
findings, US Geol. Surv. Open-File Rept. 99-517, US Geological Survey, Menlo Park, CA, 1999.
Yalciner, A. C., Synolakis, C., Borrero, J., Altinok, Y., Watts, P., Imamura, F., Kuran, U., Ersoy, Ş. S., Kanoğlu, U., and Tinti, S.: Tsunami generation in Izmit Bay by the 1999 Izmit earthquake, Conferance on the 1999 Kocaeli Earthquake, Istanbul Technical University, Istanbul, Turkey, 217–221, 1999.
Yalciner, A. C., Altinok, Y., Synolakis, C. E., Borrero, J., Imamura, F., Ersoy, S., Kuran, U., Tinti, S., Eskijian, M., Freikman, J., Yuksel, Y., Alpar, B., Watts, P., Kanoglu, U., and Bardet, J.-P.: Tsunami waves in İzmit Bay, Earthq. Spect., 16, 55–62, 2000.
Yalçıner, A. C., Alpar, B., Altınok, Y., Özbay, İ., and
Imamura, F.: Tsunamis in the Sea of Marmara: Historical documents for the
past, models for the future, Mar. Geol., 190, 445–463, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0025-3227(02)00358-4, 2002.
Yalçıner, A., Annunziato, A., Papadopoulos, G., Dogan, G. G., Guler,
H. G., Cakir, T. E., and Kanoglu, U.: The 20th July 2017 (22: 31 UTC)
Bodrum-Kos Earthquake and Tsunami: Post Tsunami Field Survey Report, available at:
http://users.metu.edu.tr/yalciner/july-21-2017-tsunami-report/Report-Field-Survey-of-July-20-2017-Bodrum-Kos-Tsunami.pdf
(last access: 11 December 2019), 2017.
Yaltırak, C.: Tectonic evolution of the Marmara Sea and its surroundings, Mar. Geol., 190, 493–529, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0025-3227(02)00360-2, 2002.
Youngs, R. R. and Coppersmith, K. J.: Implications of fault slip rates and
earthquake recurrence models to probabilistic seismic hazard estimates, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am., 75, 939–964, 1985.
Zolfaghari, M. R.: Development of a synthetically generated earthquake
catalogue towards assessment of probabilistic seismic hazard for Tehran, Nat. Hazards, 76, 497–514, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-014-1500-1, 2015.
Short summary
In this study, probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis was performed for the Tuzla region in case of a Prince Island fault rupture, which is the closest fault zone to the megacity Istanbul, and it has been silent for centuries. A synthetic earthquake catalog is generated using Monte Carlo simulations, and these events are used for tsunami analysis. The results of the study show that the probability of exceedance of 0.3 m tsunami wave height is bigger than 90 % for the next 50 and 100 years.
In this study, probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis was performed for the Tuzla region in case...
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint