Articles | Volume 20, issue 6
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1741-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1741-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
15 Jun 2020
Research article |
| 15 Jun 2020
| 15 Jun 2020
Probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis for Tuzla test site using Monte Carlo simulations
Hafize Basak Bayraktar
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Department of Physics “Ettore Pancini”, University of Naples
Federico II, Naples, 80126, Italy
Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Rome, Italy
Ceren Ozer Sozdinler
Institute of Education, Research and Regional Cooperation for Crisis Management Shikoku, Kagawa University, Takamatsu, 760-8521, Japan
Related authors
Alice Abbate, José M. González Vida, Manuel J. Castro Díaz, Fabrizio Romano, Hafize Başak Bayraktar, Andrey Babeyko, and Stefano Lorito
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2773–2791, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2773-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2773-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Modelling tsunami generation due to a rapid submarine earthquake is a complex problem. Under a variety of realistic conditions in a subduction zone, we propose and test an efficient solution to this problem: a tool that can compute the generation of any potential tsunami in any ocean in the world. In the future, we will explore solutions that would also allow us to model tsunami generation by slower (time-dependent) seafloor displacement.
Cesare Angeli, Alberto Armigliato, Martina Zanetti, Filippo Zaniboni, Fabrizio Romano, Hafize Başak Bayraktar, and Stefano Lorito
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-113, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-113, 2024
Revised manuscript under review for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
To issue precise and timely tsunami alerts, detecting the propagating tsunami is fundamental. The most used instruments are pressure sensors positioned at the ocean bottom, called Ocean-Bottom Pressure Gauges (OBPGs). In this work, we study four different techniques that allow to recognize a tsunami as soon as it is recorded by an OBPG and a methodology to calibrate them. The techniques are compared in terms of their ability to detect and characterize the tsunami wave in real time.
Alice Abbate, José M. González Vida, Manuel J. Castro Díaz, Fabrizio Romano, Hafize Başak Bayraktar, Andrey Babeyko, and Stefano Lorito
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2773–2791, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2773-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2773-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Modelling tsunami generation due to a rapid submarine earthquake is a complex problem. Under a variety of realistic conditions in a subduction zone, we propose and test an efficient solution to this problem: a tool that can compute the generation of any potential tsunami in any ocean in the world. In the future, we will explore solutions that would also allow us to model tsunami generation by slower (time-dependent) seafloor displacement.
Cesare Angeli, Alberto Armigliato, Martina Zanetti, Filippo Zaniboni, Fabrizio Romano, Hafize Başak Bayraktar, and Stefano Lorito
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-113, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-113, 2024
Revised manuscript under review for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
To issue precise and timely tsunami alerts, detecting the propagating tsunami is fundamental. The most used instruments are pressure sensors positioned at the ocean bottom, called Ocean-Bottom Pressure Gauges (OBPGs). In this work, we study four different techniques that allow to recognize a tsunami as soon as it is recorded by an OBPG and a methodology to calibrate them. The techniques are compared in terms of their ability to detect and characterize the tsunami wave in real time.
Ceren Ozer Sozdinler, Ocal Necmioglu, H. Basak Bayraktar, and Nurcan M. Ozel
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2019-186, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2019-186, 2019
Preprint withdrawn
Short summary
Short summary
We are presenting the first tsunami scenario database in the sea of Marmara, Turkey with comprehensive compilation of historical and empirical seismic data and numerical modeilng using NAMIDANCE in the frame of FP-7 MARSite project. Our main aim is to correlate with the operations of Tsunami Service Provider in KOERI. The results show that hazardous historical tsunamis in Marmara Sea cannot be explained by only earthquakes and submarine landslides should be considered as the primary component.
Related subject area
Earthquake Hazards
The Earthquake Risk Model of Switzerland, ERM-CH23
Estimating ground motion intensities using simulation-based estimates of local crustal seismic response
Co- and postseismic subaquatic evidence for prehistoric fault activity near Coyhaique, Aysén Region, Chile
Forearc crustal faults as tsunami sources in the upper plate of the Lesser Antilles subduction zone: the case study of the Morne Piton fault system
The 2020 European Seismic Hazard Model: overview and results
Risk-informed representative earthquake scenarios for Valparaíso and Viña del Mar, Chile
Harmonizing seismicity information in Central Asian countries: earthquake catalogue and active faults
Comparing components for seismic risk modelling using data from the 2019 Le Teil (France) earthquake
2021 Alaska Earthquake: entropy approach to its precursors and aftershock regimes
Modelling seismic ground motion and its uncertainty in different tectonic contexts: challenges and application to the 2020 European Seismic Hazard Model (ESHM20)
Correlation between seismic activity and acoustic emission on the basis of in-situ monitoring
Scoring and ranking probabilistic seismic hazard models: an application based on macroseismic intensity data
A dense micro-electromechanical system (MEMS)-based seismic network in populated areas: rapid estimation of exposure maps in Trentino (NE Italy)
Exploring inferred geomorphological sediment thickness as a new site proxy to predict ground-shaking amplification at regional scale: application to Europe and eastern Türkiye
Surface rupture kinematics of the 2020 Mw 6.6 Masbate (Philippines) earthquake determined from optical and radar data
The influence of aftershocks on seismic hazard analysis: a case study from Xichang and the surrounding areas
Characteristics and mechanisms of near-surface negative atmospheric electric field anomalies preceding the 5 September 2022, Ms 6.8 Luding earthquake in China
Seismogenic depth and seismic coupling estimation in the transition zone between Alps, Dinarides and Pannonian Basin for the new Slovenian seismic hazard model
Towards a dynamic earthquake risk framework for Switzerland
Understanding flow characteristics from tsunami deposits at Odaka, Joban Coast, using a deep neural network (DNN) inverse model
Spring water anomalies before two consecutive earthquakes (Mw 7.7 and Mw 7.6) in Kahramanmaraş (Türkiye) on 6 February 2023
Update on the seismogenic potential of the Upper Rhine Graben southern region
Earthquake forecasting model for Albania: the area source model and the smoothing model
Testing the 2020 European Seismic Hazard Model (ESHM20) against observations from Romania
Towards a Harmonized Operational Earthquake Forecasting Model for Europe
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment of Sweden
The footprint of a historical paleoearthquake: the sixth-century-CE event in the European western Southern Alps
Strategies for Comparison of Modern Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Models and Insights from the Germany and France Border Region
Seismic background noise levels in the Italian strong-motion network
Testing machine learning models for heuristic building damage assessment applied to the Italian Database of Observed Damage (DaDO)
The seismic hazard from the Lembang Fault, Indonesia, derived from InSAR and GNSS data
Development of a regional probabilistic seismic hazard model for Central Asia
The European Fault-Source Model 2020 (EFSM20): geologic input data for the European Seismic Hazard Model 2020
Rapid estimation of seismic intensities by analyzing early aftershock sequences using the robust locally weighted regression program (LOWESS)
Sedimentary record of historic seismicity in a small, southern Oregon lake
A 2700-yr record of Cascadia megathrust and crustal/slab earthquakes from Upper and Lower Squaw Lakes, Oregon
Towards improving the spatial testability of aftershock forecast models
Accounting for path and site effects in spatial ground-motion correlation models using Bayesian inference
Seismogenic potential and tsunami threat of the strike-slip Carboneras fault in the western Mediterranean from physics-based earthquake simulations
Earthquake hazard characterization by using entropy: application to northern Chilean earthquakes
Seismic risk scenarios for the residential buildings in the Sabana Centro province in Colombia
Looking for undocumented earthquake effects: a probabilistic analysis of Italian macroseismic data
Spatiotemporal seismicity pattern of the Taiwan orogen
A web-based GIS (web-GIS) database of the scientific articles on earthquake-triggered landslides
Evaluation of liquefaction triggering potential in Italy: a seismic-hazard-based approach
Earthquake vulnerability assessment of the built environment in the city of Srinagar, Kashmir Himalaya, using a geographic information system
Earthquake-induced landslides in Norway
PERL: a dataset of geotechnical, geophysical, and hydrogeological parameters for earthquake-induced hazards assessment in Terre del Reno (Emilia-Romagna, Italy)
Development of a seismic loss prediction model for residential buildings using machine learning – Ōtautahi / Christchurch, New Zealand
A non-extensive approach to probabilistic seismic hazard analysis
Athanasios N. Papadopoulos, Philippe Roth, Laurentiu Danciu, Paolo Bergamo, Francesco Panzera, Donat Fäh, Carlo Cauzzi, Blaise Duvernay, Alireza Khodaverdian, Pierino Lestuzzi, Ömer Odabaşi, Ettore Fagà, Paolo Bazzurro, Michèle Marti, Nadja Valenzuela, Irina Dallo, Nicolas Schmid, Philip Kästli, Florian Haslinger, and Stefan Wiemer
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3561–3578, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3561-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3561-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The Earthquake Risk Model of Switzerland (ERM-CH23), released in early 2023, is the culmination of a multidisciplinary effort aiming to achieve, for the first time, a comprehensive assessment of the potential consequences of earthquakes on the Swiss building stock and population. ERM-CH23 provides risk estimates for various impact metrics, ranging from economic loss as a result of damage to buildings and their contents to human losses, such as deaths, injuries, and displaced population.
Himanshu Agrawal and John McCloskey
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3519–3536, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3519-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3519-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Rapidly expanding cities in earthquake-prone regions of the Global South often lack seismic event records, hindering accurate ground motion predictions for hazard assessment. Our study demonstrates that, despite these limitations, reliable predictions can be made using simulation-based methods for small (sub)urban units undergoing rapid development. High-resolution local geological data can reveal spatial variability in ground motions, aiding effective risk mitigation.
Morgan Vervoort, Katleen Wils, Kris Vanneste, Roberto Urrutia, Mario Pino, Catherine Kissel, Marc De Batist, and Maarten Van Daele
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3401–3421, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3401-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3401-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study identifies a prehistoric earthquake around 4400 years ago near the city of Coyhaique (Aysén Region, Chilean Patagonia) and illustrates the potential seismic hazard in the region. We found deposits in lakes and a fjord that can be related to subaquatic and onshore landslides, all with a similar age, indicating that they were most likely caused by an earthquake. Through modeling we found that this was an earthquake of magnitude 6.3 to 7.0 on a fault near the city of Coyhaique.
Melody Philippon, Jean Roger, Jean-Frédéric Lebrun, Isabelle Thinon, Océane Foix, Stéphane Mazzotti, Marc-André Gutscher, Leny Montheil, and Jean-Jacques Cornée
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3129–3154, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3129-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3129-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Using novel geophysical datasets, we reassess the slip rate of the Morne Piton fault (Lesser Antilles) at 0.2 mm yr−1 by dividing by four previous estimations and thus increasing the earthquake time recurrence and lowering the associated hazard. We evaluate a plausible magnitude for a potential seismic event of Mw 6.5 ± 0.5. Our multi-segment tsunami model representative of the worst-case scenario gives an overview of tsunami generation if all the fault segments ruptured together.
Laurentiu Danciu, Domenico Giardini, Graeme Weatherill, Roberto Basili, Shyam Nandan, Andrea Rovida, Céline Beauval, Pierre-Yves Bard, Marco Pagani, Celso G. Reyes, Karin Sesetyan, Susana Vilanova, Fabrice Cotton, and Stefan Wiemer
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3049–3073, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3049-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3049-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The 2020 European Seismic Hazard Model (ESHM20) is the latest seismic hazard assessment update for the Euro-Mediterranean region. This state-of-the-art model delivers a broad range of hazard results, including hazard curves, maps, and uniform hazard spectra. ESHM20 provides two hazard maps as informative references in the next update of the European Seismic Design Code (CEN EC8), and it also provides a key input to the first earthquake risk model for Europe.
Hugo Rosero-Velásquez, Mauricio Monsalve, Juan Camilo Gómez Zapata, Elisa Ferrario, Alan Poulos, Juan Carlos de la Llera, and Daniel Straub
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2667–2687, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2667-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2667-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Seismic risk management uses reference earthquake scenarios, but the criteria for selecting them do not always consider consequences for exposed assets. Hence, we adopt a definition of representative scenarios associated with a return period and loss level to select such scenarios among a large set of possible earthquakes. We identify the scenarios for the residential-building stock and power supply in Valparaíso and Viña del Mar, Chile. The selected scenarios depend on the exposed assets.
Valerio Poggi, Stefano Parolai, Natalya Silacheva, Anatoly Ischuk, Kanatbek Abdrakhmatov, Zainalobudin Kobuliev, Vakhitkhan Ismailov, Roman Ibragimov, Japar Karaev, Paola Ceresa, and Paolo Bazzurro
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2597–2613, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2597-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2597-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
As part of the Strengthening Financial Resilience and Accelerating Risk Reduction in Central Asia (SFRARR) programme, funded by the European Union in collaboration with the World Bank and GFDRR, a regionally consistent probabilistic multi-hazard and multi-asset risk assessment has been developed. This paper describes the preparation of the input datasets (earthquake catalogue and active-fault database) required for the implementation of the probabilistic seismic hazard model.
Konstantinos Trevlopoulos, Pierre Gehl, Caterina Negulescu, Helen Crowley, and Laurentiu Danciu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2383–2401, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2383-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2383-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The models used to estimate the probability of exceeding a level of earthquake damage are essential to the reduction of disasters. These models consist of components that may be tested individually; however testing these types of models as a whole is challenging. Here, we use observations of damage caused by the 2019 Le Teil earthquake and estimations from other models to test components of seismic risk models.
Eugenio E. Vogel, Denisse Pastén, Gonzalo Saravia, Michel Aguilera, and Antonio Posadas
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-106, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-106, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
For the first time, an entropy analysis has been performed in Alaska, a seismic-rich region located in a subduction zone that shows non-trivial behavior: the subduction arc changes seismic activity from the eastern zone to the western zone, showing a decrease in this activity along subduction. This study shows how an entropy approach can help understand seismicity in subduction zones.
Graeme Weatherill, Sreeram Reddy Kotha, Laurentiu Danciu, Susana Vilanova, and Fabrice Cotton
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1795–1834, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1795-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1795-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The ground motion models (GMMs) selected for the 2020 European Seismic Hazard Model (ESHM20) and their uncertainties require adaptation to different tectonic environments. Using insights from new data, local experts and developments in the scientific literature, we further calibrate the ESHM20 GMM logic tree to capture previously unmodelled regional variation. We also propose a new scaled-backbone logic tree for application to Europe's subduction zones and the Vrancea deep seismic source.
Zhiwen Zhu, Zihan Jiang, Federico Accornero, and Alberto Carpinteri
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-688, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-688, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
1. The dense clusters of AE appear to anticipate the major seismic events. 2. AE has a strong correlation to seismic swarms occurring in surrounding areas. AE tends to regularly anticipates by approximately 17 hours both the considered seismic events. 3. The trends of b-value and natural-time variance can be used as seismic precursors.
Vera D'Amico, Francesco Visini, Andrea Rovida, Warner Marzocchi, and Carlo Meletti
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1401–1413, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1401-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1401-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We propose a scoring strategy to rank multiple models/branches of a probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) model that could be useful to consider specific requests from stakeholders responsible for seismic risk reduction actions. In fact, applications of PSHA often require sampling a few hazard curves from the model. The procedure is introduced through an application aimed to score and rank the branches of a recent Italian PSHA model according to their fit with macroseismic intensity data.
Davide Scafidi, Alfio Viganò, Jacopo Boaga, Valeria Cascone, Simone Barani, Daniele Spallarossa, Gabriele Ferretti, Mauro Carli, and Giancarlo De Marchi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1249–1260, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1249-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1249-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Our paper concerns the use of a dense network of low-cost seismic accelerometers in populated areas to achieve rapid and reliable estimation of exposure maps in Trentino (northeast Italy). These additional data, in conjunction with the automatic monitoring procedure, allow us to obtain dense measurements which only rely on actual recorded data, avoiding the use of ground motion prediction equations. This leads to a more reliable picture of the actual ground shaking.
Karina Loviknes, Fabrice Cotton, and Graeme Weatherill
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1223–1247, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1223-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1223-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Earthquake ground shaking can be strongly affected by local geology and is often amplified by soft sediments. In this study, we introduce a global geomorphological model for sediment thickness as a protentional parameter for predicting this site amplification. The results show that including geology and geomorphology in site-amplification predictions adds important value and that global or regional models for sediment thickness from fields beyond engineering seismology are worth considering.
Khelly Shan Sta. Rita, Sotiris Valkaniotis, and Alfredo Mahar Francisco Lagmay
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1135–1161, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1135-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1135-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The ground movement and rupture produced by the 2020 Masbate earthquake in the Philippines were studied using satellite data. We highlight the importance of the complementary use of optical and radar datasets. The slip measurements and field observations helped improve our understanding of the seismotectonics of the region, which is critical for seismic hazard studies.
Qing Wu, Guijuan Lai, Jian Wu, and Jinmeng Bi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1017–1033, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1017-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1017-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Aftershocks are typically ignored for traditional probabilistic seismic hazard analyses, which underestimate the seismic hazard to some extent and may cause potential risks. A probabilistic seismic hazard analysis based on the Monte Carlo method was combined with the Omi–Reasenberg–Jones model to systematically study how aftershocks impact seismic hazard analyses. The influence of aftershocks on probabilistic seismic hazard analysis can exceed 50 %.
Lixin Wu, Xiao Wang, Yuan Qi, Jingchen Lu, and Wenfei Mao
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 773–789, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-773-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-773-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The atmospheric electric field (AEF) is the bridge connecting the surface charges and atmospheric particle changes before an earthquake, which is essential for the study of the coupling process between the coversphere and atmosphere caused by earthquakes. This study discovers AEF anomalies before the Luding earthquake in 2022 and clarifies the relationship between the surface changes and atmosphere changes possibly caused by the earthquake.
Polona Zupančič, Barbara Šket Motnikar, Michele M. C. Carafa, Petra Jamšek Rupnik, Mladen Živčić, Vanja Kastelic, Gregor Rajh, Martina Čarman, Jure Atanackov, and Andrej Gosar
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 651–672, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-651-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-651-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We considered two parameters that affect seismic hazard assessment in Slovenia. The first parameter we determined is the thickness of the lithosphere's section where earthquakes are generated. The second parameter is the activity of each fault, which is expressed by its average displacement per year (slip rate). Since the slip rate can be either seismic or aseismic, we estimated both components. This analysis was based on geological and seismological data and was validated through comparisons.
Maren Böse, Laurentiu Danciu, Athanasios Papadopoulos, John Clinton, Carlo Cauzzi, Irina Dallo, Leila Mizrahi, Tobias Diehl, Paolo Bergamo, Yves Reuland, Andreas Fichtner, Philippe Roth, Florian Haslinger, Frédérick Massin, Nadja Valenzuela, Nikola Blagojević, Lukas Bodenmann, Eleni Chatzi, Donat Fäh, Franziska Glueer, Marta Han, Lukas Heiniger, Paulina Janusz, Dario Jozinović, Philipp Kästli, Federica Lanza, Timothy Lee, Panagiotis Martakis, Michèle Marti, Men-Andrin Meier, Banu Mena Cabrera, Maria Mesimeri, Anne Obermann, Pilar Sanchez-Pastor, Luca Scarabello, Nicolas Schmid, Anastasiia Shynkarenko, Bozidar Stojadinović, Domenico Giardini, and Stefan Wiemer
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 583–607, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-583-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-583-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Seismic hazard and risk are time dependent as seismicity is clustered and exposure can change rapidly. We are developing an interdisciplinary dynamic earthquake risk framework for advancing earthquake risk mitigation in Switzerland. This includes various earthquake risk products and services, such as operational earthquake forecasting and early warning. Standardisation and harmonisation into seamless solutions that access the same databases, workflows, and software are a crucial component.
Rimali Mitra, Hajime Naruse, and Tomoya Abe
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 429–444, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-429-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-429-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study estimates the behavior of the 2011 Tohoku-oki tsunami from its deposit distributed in the Joban coastal area. In this study, the flow characteristics of the tsunami were reconstructed using the DNN (deep neural network) inverse model, suggesting that the tsunami inundation occurred in the very high-velocity condition.
Sedat İnan, Hasan Çetin, and Nurettin Yakupoğlu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 397–409, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-397-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-397-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Two devastating earthquakes, Mw 7.7 and Mw 7.6, occurred in Türkiye on 6 February 2023. We obtained commercially bottled waters from two springs, 100 km from the epicenter of Mw 7.7. Samples of the first spring emanating from fault zone in hard rocks showed positive anomalies in major ions lasting for 6 months before the earthquake. Samples from the second spring accumulated in an alluvium deposit showed no anomalies. We show that pre-earthquake anomalies are geologically site-dependent.
Sylvain Michel, Clara Duverger, Laurent Bollinger, Jorge Jara, and Romain Jolivet
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 163–177, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-163-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-163-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The Upper Rhine Graben, located in France and Germany, is bordered by north–south-trending faults, posing a potential threat to dense population and infrastructures on the Alsace plain. We build upon previous seismic hazard studies of the graben by exploring uncertainties in greater detail, revisiting a number of assumptions. There is a 99 % probability that a maximum-magnitude earthquake would be below 7.3 if assuming a purely dip-slip mechanism or below 7.6 if assuming a strike-slip one.
Edlira Xhafaj, Chung-Han Chan, and Kuo-Fong Ma
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 109–119, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-109-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-109-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Our study introduces new earthquake forecasting models for Albania, aiming to map out future seismic hazards. By analysing earthquakes from 1960 to 2006, we have developed models that predict where activity is most likely to occur, highlighting the western coast and southern regions as high-hazard zones. Our validation process confirms these models are effective tools for anticipating seismic events, offering valuable insights for earthquake preparedness and hazard assessment efforts.
Elena F. Manea, Laurentiu Danciu, Carmen O. Cioflan, Dragos Toma-Danila, and Matt Gerstenberger
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-232, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-232, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
We test and evaluate the results of the 2020 European Seismic Hazard Model (ESHM20; Danciu et al., 2021) against observations spamming over a few centuries at twelve cities in Romania. The full distribution of the hazard curves at the given location was considered, and the testing was done for two relevant peak ground acceleration (PGA) values. Our analysis suggests that the observed exceedance rates for the selected PGA levels are consistent with ESHM20 estimates.
Marta Han, Leila Mizrahi, and Stefan Wiemer
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-3153, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-3153, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Relying on recent accomplishments in collecting and harmonizing data by the 2020 European Seismic Hazard Model (ESHM20) and leveraging advancements in state-of-the-art earthquake forecasting methods, we develop a harmonized earthquake forecasting model for Europe. We propose several model variants and test them on training data for consistency and on a seven-year testing period against each other, as well as against both a time-independent benchmark and a global time-dependent benchmark.
Niranjan Joshi, Björn Lund, and Roland Roberts
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-213, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-213, 2023
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
Few large earthquakes and low occurrence rates makes seismic hazard assessment of Sweden a challenging task. Since 2000, expansion of the seismic network has improved the quality and quantity of the data recorded. We use this new data to estimate the Swedish seismic hazard using probabilistic methods. We find that hazard was previously underestimated in the north, which we find to have the highest hazard in Sweden with mean peak ground acceleration of up to 0.05 g for a 475 year return period.
Franz Livio, Maria Francesca Ferrario, Elisa Martinelli, Sahra Talamo, Silvia Cercatillo, and Alessandro Maria Michetti
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3407–3424, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3407-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3407-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Here we document the occurrence of an historical earthquake that occurred in the European western Southern Alps in the sixth century CE. Analysis of the effects due to earthquake shaking in the city of Como (N Italy) and a comparison with dated offshore landslides in the Alpine lakes allowed us to make an inference about the possible magnitude and the location of the seismic source for this event.
Graeme Weatherill, Fabrice Cotton, Guillaume Daniel, Irmela Zentner, Pablo Iturrieta, and Christian Bosse
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-98, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-98, 2023
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
New generations of seismic hazard models are developed with sophisticated approaches to quantify uncertainties in our knowledge of earthquake process. To understand why and how recent state-of-the-art seismic hazard models for France, Germany and Europe differ despite similar underlying assumptions, we present a systematic approach to investigate model-to-model differences and to quantify and visualise them while accounting for their respective uncertainties.
Simone Francesco Fornasari, Deniz Ertuncay, and Giovanni Costa
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3219–3234, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3219-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3219-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We analysed the background seismic noise for the Italian strong motion network by developing the Italian accelerometric low- and high-noise models. Spatial and temporal variations of the noise levels have been analysed. Several stations located near urban areas are affected by human activities, with high noise levels in the low periods. Our results provide an overview of the background noise of the strong motion network and can be used as a station selection criterion for future research.
Subash Ghimire, Philippe Guéguen, Adrien Pothon, and Danijel Schorlemmer
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3199–3218, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3199-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3199-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This study explores the efficacy of several machine learning models for damage characterization, trained and tested on the Database of Observed Damage (DaDO) for Italian earthquakes. Reasonable damage prediction effectiveness (68 % accuracy) is observed, particularly when considering basic structural features and grouping the damage according to the traffic-light-based system used during the post-disaster period (green, yellow, and red), showing higher relevancy for rapid damage prediction.
Ekbal Hussain, Endra Gunawan, Nuraini Rahma Hanifa, and Qori'atu Zahro
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3185–3197, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3185-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3185-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The earthquake potential of the Lembang Fault, located near the city of Bandung in West Java, Indonesia, is poorly understood. Bandung has a population of over 8 million people. We used satellite data to estimate the energy storage on the fault and calculate the likely size of potential future earthquakes. We use simulations to show that 1.9–2.7 million people would be exposed to high levels of ground shaking in the event of a major earthquake on the fault.
Valerio Poggi, Stefano Parolai, Natalya Silacheva, Anatoly Ischuk, Kanatbek Abdrakhmatov, Zainalobudin Kobuliev, Vakhitkhan Ismailov, Roman Ibragimov, Japar Karayev, Paola Ceresa, Marco Santulin, and Paolo Bazzurro
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-132, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-132, 2023
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
A regionally consistent probabilistic risk assessment for multiple hazards and assets was recently developed as part of the "Strengthening Financial Resilience and Accelerating Risk Reduction in Central Asia" (SFRARR) program, promoted by the European Union in collaboration with the World Bank and GFDRR. This paper describes the preparation of the source model and presents the main results of the probabilistic earthquake model for the Central Asian countries.
Roberto Basili, Laurentiu Danciu, Céline Beauval, Karin Sesetyan, Susana Pires Vilanova, Shota Adamia, Pierre Arroucau, Jure Atanackov, Stephane Baize, Carolina Canora, Riccardo Caputo, Michele Matteo Cosimo Carafa, Edward Marc Cushing, Susana Custódio, Mine Betul Demircioglu Tumsa, João C. Duarte, Athanassios Ganas, Julián García-Mayordomo, Laura Gómez de la Peña, Eulàlia Gràcia, Petra Jamšek Rupnik, Hervé Jomard, Vanja Kastelic, Francesco Emanuele Maesano, Raquel Martín-Banda, Sara Martínez-Loriente, Marta Neres, Hector Perea, Barbara Šket Motnikar, Mara Monica Tiberti, Nino Tsereteli, Varvara Tsironi, Roberto Vallone, Kris Vanneste, Polona Zupančič, and Domenico Giardini
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-118, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-118, 2023
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
This study presents the European Fault-Source Model 2020 (EFSM20), a dataset of 1,248 geologic crustal faults and four subduction systems, each having the necessary parameters to forecast long-term earthquake occurrences in the European continent. This dataset constituted one of the main inputs for the recently released European Seismic Hazard Model 2020, a key instrument to mitigate seismic risk in Europe. EFSM20 adopts recognized open-standard formats, and it is openly accessible and reusable.
Huaiqun Zhao, Wenkai Chen, Can Zhang, and Dengjie Kang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3031–3050, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3031-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3031-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Early emergency response requires improving the utilization value of the data available in the early post-earthquake period. We proposed a method for assessing seismic intensities by analyzing early aftershock sequences using the robust locally weighted regression program. The seismic intensity map evaluated by the method can reflect the range of the hardest-hit areas and the spatial distribution of the possible property damage and casualties caused by the earthquake.
Ann Elizabeth Morey, Mark D. Shapley, Daniel G. Gavin, Alan R. Nelson, and Chris Goldfinger
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-1631354/v2, https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-1631354/v2, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Disturbance events from historic sediments from a small lake in Oregon were compared to known events to determine if Cascadia earthquakes are uniquely identifiable. Sedimentological methods and geochemical provenance data identify a deposit likely from the most recent Cascadia earthquake (which occurred in 1700), another type of earthquake deposit, and flood deposits, suggesting that small lakes are good recorders of megathrust earthquakes. New methods developed hold promise for other lakes.
Ann Elizabeth Morey and Chris Goldfinger
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-2277419/v2, https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-2277419/v2, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This study uses the characteristics from a deposit attributed to the 1700 CE Cascadia earthquake to identify other subduction earthquake deposits in sediments from two lakes located near the California/Oregon border. Seven deposits were identified in these records and an age-depth model suggests that these correlate in time to the largest Cascadia earthquakes preserved in the offshore record suggesting that inland lakes can be good recorders of Cascadia earthquakes.
Asim M. Khawaja, Behnam Maleki Asayesh, Sebastian Hainzl, and Danijel Schorlemmer
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2683–2696, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2683-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2683-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Testing of earthquake forecasts is important for model verification. Forecasts are usually spatially discretized with many equal-sized grid cells, but often few earthquakes are available for evaluation, leading to meaningless tests. Here, we propose solutions to improve the testability of earthquake forecasts and give a minimum ratio between the number of earthquakes and spatial cells for significant tests. We show applications of the proposed technique for synthetic and real case studies.
Lukas Bodenmann, Jack W. Baker, and Božidar Stojadinović
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2387–2402, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2387-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2387-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Understanding spatial patterns in earthquake-induced ground motions is key for assessing the seismic risk of distributed infrastructure systems. To study such patterns, we propose a novel model that accounts for spatial proximity, as well as site and path effects, and estimate its parameters from past earthquake data by explicitly quantifying the inherent uncertainties.
José A. Álvarez-Gómez, Paula Herrero-Barbero, and José J. Martínez-Díaz
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2031–2052, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2031-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2031-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The strike-slip Carboneras fault is one of the largest sources in the Alboran Sea, with it being one of the faster faults in the eastern Betics. The dimensions and location of the Carboneras fault imply a high seismic and tsunami threat. In this work, we present tsunami simulations from sources generated with physics-based earthquake simulators. We show that the Carboneras fault has the capacity to generate locally damaging tsunamis with inter-event times between 2000 and 6000 years.
Antonio Posadas, Denisse Pasten, Eugenio E. Vogel, and Gonzalo Saravia
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1911–1920, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1911-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1911-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
In this paper we understand an earthquake from a thermodynamics point of view as an irreversible transition; then it must suppose an increase in entropy. We use > 100 000 earthquakes in northern Chile to test the theory that Shannon entropy, H, is an indicator of the equilibrium state. Using variation in H, we were able to detect major earthquakes and their foreshocks and aftershocks, including the 2007 Mw 7.8 Tocopilla earthquake and 2014 Mw 8.1 Iquique earthquake.
Dirsa Feliciano, Orlando Arroyo, Tamara Cabrera, Diana Contreras, Jairo Andrés Valcárcel Torres, and Juan Camilo Gómez Zapata
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1863–1890, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1863-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1863-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This article presents the number of damaged buildings and estimates the economic losses from a set of earthquakes in Sabana Centro, a region of 11 towns in Colombia.
Andrea Antonucci, Andrea Rovida, Vera D'Amico, and Dario Albarello
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1805–1816, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1805-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1805-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The earthquake effects undocumented at 228 Italian localities were calculated through a probabilistic approach starting from the values obtained through the use of an intensity prediction equation, taking into account the intensity data documented at close localities for a given earthquake. The results showed some geographical dependencies and correlations with the intensity levels investigated.
Yi-Ying Wen, Chien-Chih Chen, Strong Wen, and Wei-Tsen Lu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1835–1846, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1835-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1835-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Knowing the spatiotemporal seismicity patterns prior to impending large earthquakes might help earthquake hazard assessment. Several recent moderate earthquakes occurred in the various regions of Taiwan, which help to further investigate the spatiotemporal seismic pattern related to the regional tectonic stress. We should pay attention when a seismicity decrease of 2.5 < M < 4.5 events around the southern Central Range or an accelerating seismicity of 3 < M < 5 events appears in central Taiwan.
Luca Schilirò, Mauro Rossi, Federica Polpetta, Federica Fiorucci, Carolina Fortunato, and Paola Reichenbach
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1789–1804, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1789-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1789-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We present a database of the main scientific articles published on earthquake-triggered landslides in the last 4 decades. To enhance data viewing, the articles were catalogued into a web-based GIS, which was specifically designed to show different types of information, such as bibliometric information, the relevant topic and sub-topic category (or categories), and earthquake(s) addressed. Such information can be useful to obtain a general overview of the topic, especially for a broad readership.
Simone Barani, Gabriele Ferretti, and Davide Scafidi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1685–1698, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1685-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1685-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
In the present study, we analyze ground-motion hazard maps and hazard disaggregation in order to define areas in Italy where liquefaction triggering due to seismic activity can not be excluded. The final result is a screening map for all of Italy that classifies sites in terms of liquefaction triggering potential according to their seismic hazard level. The map and the associated data are freely accessible at the following web address: www.distav.unige.it/rsni/milq.php.
Midhat Fayaz, Shakil A. Romshoo, Irfan Rashid, and Rakesh Chandra
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1593–1611, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1593-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1593-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Earthquakes cause immense loss of lives and damage to properties, particularly in major urban centres. The city of Srinagar, which houses around 1.5 million people, is susceptible to high seismic hazards due to its peculiar geological setting, urban setting, demographic profile, and tectonic setting. Keeping in view all of these factors, the present study investigates the earthquake vulnerability of buildings in Srinagar, an urban city in the northwestern Himalayas, India.
Mathilde B. Sørensen, Torbjørn Haga, and Atle Nesje
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1577–1592, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1577-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1577-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Most Norwegian landslides are triggered by rain or snowmelt, and earthquakes have not been considered a relevant trigger mechanism even though some cases have been reported. Here we systematically search historical documents and databases and find 22 landslides induced by eight large Norwegian earthquakes. The Norwegian earthquakes induce landslides at distances and over areas that are much larger than those found for global datasets.
Chiara Varone, Gianluca Carbone, Anna Baris, Maria Chiara Caciolli, Stefania Fabozzi, Carolina Fortunato, Iolanda Gaudiosi, Silvia Giallini, Marco Mancini, Luca Paolella, Maurizio Simionato, Pietro Sirianni, Rose Line Spacagna, Francesco Stigliano, Daniel Tentori, Luca Martelli, Giuseppe Modoni, and Massimiliano Moscatelli
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1371–1382, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1371-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1371-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
In 2012, Italy was struck by a seismic crisis characterized by two main shocks and relevant liquefaction events. Terre del Reno is one of the municipalities that experienced the most extensive liquefaction effects; thus it was chosen as case study for a project devoted to defining a new methodology to assess the liquefaction susceptibility. In this framework, about 1800 geotechnical, geophysical, and hydrogeological investigations were collected and stored in the publicly available PERL dataset.
Samuel Roeslin, Quincy Ma, Pavan Chigullapally, Joerg Wicker, and Liam Wotherspoon
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1207–1226, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1207-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1207-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This paper presents a new framework for the rapid seismic loss prediction for residential buildings in Christchurch, New Zealand. The initial model was trained on insurance claims from the Canterbury earthquake sequence. Data science techniques, geospatial tools, and machine learning were used to develop the prediction model, which also delivered useful insights. The model can rapidly be updated with data from new earthquakes. It can then be applied to predict building loss in Christchurch.
Sasan Motaghed, Mozhgan Khazaee, Nasrollah Eftekhari, and Mohammad Mohammadi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1117–1124, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1117-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1117-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We modify the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) formulation by replacing the Gutenberg–Richter power law with the SCP (Sotolongo-Costa and Posadas) non-extensive model for earthquake size distribution and call it NEPSHA. The proposed method (NEPSHA) is implemented in the Tehran region, and the results are compared with the classic PSHA method. The hazard curves show that NEPSHA gives a higher hazard, especially in the range of practical return periods.
Cited articles
Abrahamson, N. A. and Bommer, J. J.: Probability and uncertainty in seismic
hazard analysis, Earthq. Spect., 21, 603–607, https://doi.org/10.1193/1.1899158, 2005.
Aki, K.: Asperities, barriers, characteristic earthquakes and strong motion
prediction, J. Geophys. Res.-Solid, 89, 5867–5872, https://doi.org/10.1029/JB089iB07p05867, 1984.
Aki, K.: Generation and propagation of G waves from the Niigata Earthquake
of June 16 1964. Part 2. Estimation of earthquake movement, released energy,
and stress-strain drop from the G wave spectrum, Bull. Earthq. Res. Inst., 44, 73–88, 1966.
Aksu, A. E., Calon, T. J., Hiscott, R. N., and Yasar, D.: Anatomy of the
North Anatolian Fault Zone in the Marmara Sea, Western Turkey: extensional
basins above a continental transform, GSA Today, 10, 3–7, 2000.
Allen, C. R.: The tectonic environments of seismically active and inactive
areas along the San Andreas fault system, Stanford University Publications,
Geol. Sci., 11, 70–80, 1968.
Alpar, B. and Yaltırak, C.: Characteristic features of the North Anatolian Fault in the eastern Marmara region and its tectonic evolution, Mar. Geol., 190, 329–350, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0025-3227(02)00353-5, 2002.
Altınok, Y. and Alpar, B.: Marmara Island earthquakes, of 1265 and 1935;
Turkey, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 6, 999–1006,
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-6-999-2006, 2006.
Altınok, Y., Alpar, B., and Yaltırak, C.: Şarköy-Mürefte 1912 earthquake's tsunami, extension of the associated faulting in the Marmara Sea, Turkey, J. Seismol., 7, 329–346,
https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1024581022222, 2003.
Altinok, Y., Alpar, B., Özer, N., and Aykurt, H.: Revision of the tsunami catalogue affecting Turkish coasts and surrounding regions, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 11, 273–291, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-11-273-2011, 2011.
Ambraseys, N.: The seismic activity of the Marmara Sea region over the last
2000 years, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am., 92, 1–18, https://doi.org/10.1785/0120000843, 2002.
Ambraseys, N. N. and Jackson, J. A.: Seismicity of the Sea of Marmara (Turkey) since 1500, Geophys. J. Int., 141, F1–F6,
https://doi.org/10.1046/j.1365-246x.2000.00137.x, 2000.
Ambraseys, N. N. N. and Finkel, C. F.: Seismicity of Turkey and Adjacent Areas: A Historical Review 1500–1800, MS Eren, Istanbul, Turkey, 1995.
Annaka, T., Satake, K., Sakakiyama, T., Yanagisawa, K., and Shuto, N.:
Logic-tree approach for probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis and its
applications to the Japanese coasts, in: Tsunami and its hazards in the
indian and pacific oceans, Birkhäuser, Basel, 577–592,
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-7643-8364-0_17, 2007.
Armijo, R., Meyer, B., Hubert, A., and Barka, A.: Westward propagation of
the North Anatolian fault into the northern Aegean: Timing and kinematics,
Geology, 27, 267–270, https://doi.org/10.1130/0091-7613(1999)027<0267:WPOTNA>2.3.CO;2, 1999.
Armijo, R., Meyer, B., Navarro, S., King, G., and Barka, A.: Asymmetric slip
partitioning in the Sea of Marmara pull-apart: A clue to propagation processes of the North Anatolian fault?, Terra Nova, 14, 80–86, https://doi.org/10.1046/j.1365-3121.2002.00397.x, 2002.
Armijo, R., Pondard, N., Meyer, B., Uçarkus, G., de Lépinay, B. M., Malavieille, J., Dominguez, S., Gustcher, M. A., Schmidt, S., Beck, C., Cagatay, N., Çakır, Z., Imren, C., Eris, K., Natalin, B., Özalaybey, S., Tolun, L., Lefèvre, I., Seeber, L., Gasperini, L., Rangin, C., Emre, O., and Sarikavak, K.: Submarine fault scarps in the Sea of Marmara pull-apart (North Anatolian Fault): Implications for seismic hazard in Istanbul, Geochem. Geophy., Geosy., 6, Q06009, https://doi.org/10.1029/2004GC000896, 2005.
Aytore, B., Yalciner, A. C., Zaytsev, A., Cankaya, Z. C., and Suzen, M. L.:
Assessment of tsunami resilience of Haydarpaşa Port in the Sea of Marmara by high-resolution numerical modeling, Earth Planets Space, 68, 139, https://doi.org/10.1186/s40623-016-0508-z, 2016.
Barka, A.: The 17 august 1999 Izmit earthquake, Science, 285, 1858–1859,
https://doi.org/10.1126/science.285.5435.1858, 1999.
Bayraktar, H. B.: Tuzla-PTHA, https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.12033789, 2020.
Bohnhoff, M., Bulut, F., Dresen, G., Malin, P. E., Eken, T., and Aktar, M.:
An earthquake gap south of Istanbul, Nat. Commun., 4, 1999,
https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms2999, 2013.
Cankaya, Z. C., Suzen, M. L., Yalciner, A. C., Kolat, C., Zaytsev, A., and
Aytore, B.: A new GIS-based tsunami risk evaluation: MeTHuVA (METU tsunami
human vulnerability assessment) at Yenikapı, Istanbul, Earth Planets
Space, 68, 133, https://doi.org/10.1186/s40623-016-0507-0, 2016.
Cramer, C. H., Petersen, M. D., Cao, T., Toppozada, T. R., and Reichle, M.:
A time-dependent probabilistic seismic-hazard model for California, Bull.
Seismol. Soc. Am., 90, 1–21, https://doi.org/10.1785/0119980087, 2000.
Davis, P. M., Jackson, D. D., and Kagan, Y. Y.: The longer it has been since
the last earthquake, the longer the expected time till the next?, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am., 79, 1439–1456, 1989.
Earthquake Research Committee: Evaluation method and its application for the
probability of long-term earthquke occurrence, Headquarters for Earthquake Research Promotion, Tokyo, 2001.
Ellsworth, W. L., Matthews, M. V., Nadeau, R. M., Nishenko, S. P., Reasenberg, P. A., and Simpson, R. W.: A physically-based earthquake
recurrence model for estimation of long-term earthquake probabilities, US Geol. Surv. Open-File Rept. 99, US Geological Survey, Menlo Park, CA, 23 pp., 1999.
Emre, Ö., Duman, T. Y., Özalp, S., Elmacı, H., Olgun, Ş., and
Şaroğlu, F.: Active fault map of Turkey with explanatory text, General Directorate of Mineral Research and Exploration Special Publication Series, Ankara, Turkey, p. 30, 2013.
Erdik, M., Demircioglu, M., Sesetyan, K., Durukal, E., and Siyahi, B.:
Earthquake hazard in Marmara region, Turkey, Soil Dynam. Earthq. Eng., 24, 605–631, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.soildyn.2004.04.003, 2004.
Ergintav, S., Reilinger, R. E., Çakmak, R., Floyd, M., Cakir, Z., Doğan, U., and Özener, H.: Istanbul's earthquake hot spots: Geodetic
constraints on strain accumulation along faults in the Marmara seismic gap, Geophys. Res. Lett., 41, 5783–5788, https://doi.org/10.1002/2014GL060985, 2014.
Flerit, F., Armijo, R., King, G. C. P., Meyer, B., and Barka, A.: Slip
partitioning in the Sea of Marmara pull-apart determined from GPS velocity
vectors, Geophys. J. Int., 154, 1–7, https://doi.org/10.1046/j.1365-246X.2003.01899.x, 2003.
Flerit, F., Armijo, R., King, G., and Meyer, B.: The mechanical interaction
between the propagating North Anatolian Fault and the back-arc extension in
the Aegean, Earth Planet. Sc. Lett., 224, 347–362,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epsl.2004.05.028, 2004.
Gasperini, L., Polonia, A., Çağatay, M. N., Bortoluzzi, G., and
Ferrante, V.: Geological slip rates along the North Anatolian Fault in the
Marmara region, Tectonics, 30, TC6001, https://doi.org/10.1029/2011TC002906, 2011.
Geist, E. L. and Lynett, P. J.: Source processes for the probabilistic
assessment of tsunami hazards, Oceanography, 27, 86–93, https://doi.org/10.5670/oceanog.2014.43, 2014.
Geist, E. L. and Parsons, T.: Probabilistic analysis of tsunami hazards, Nat. Hazards, 37, 277–314, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-005-4646-z, 2006.
Goda, K. and De Risi, R.: Multi-hazard loss estimation for shaking and tsunami using stochastic rupture sources, Int. J. Disast. Risk Reduct., 28, 539–554, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2018.01.002, 2018.
Godinho, J.: Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis an Introduction to
Theoretical Basis and Applied Methodology, Msc thesis, University of
Patras, Greece, 2007.
González, F. I., Geist, E. L., Jaffe, B., Kânoğlu, U., Mofjeld,
H., Synolakis, C. E., Titov, V. V., Arcas, D., Bellomo, D., Carlton, D., Horning, T., Johnson, J., Newman, J., Parsons, T., Peters, R., Peterson, C., Priest, G., Venturato, A., Weber, J., Wong, F., and Yalciner, A.: Probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment at seaside, Oregon, for near-and far-field seismic sources, J. Geophys. Res.-Oceans, 114, C11023,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2008JC005132, 2009.
Gonzalez, F. I., LeVeque, R. J., and Adams, L. M.: Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment (PTHA) for Crescent City, CA, Final Report for Phase I, University of Washington, Department of Applied Mathmatics, Washington, available at: http://hdl.handle.net/1773/25916 (last access: 18 April 2019), 2013.
Grezio, A., Babeyko, A., Baptista, M. A., Behrens, J., Costa, A., Davies, G., Geist, E. L., Glimsdal, S., González, F. I., Griffin, J., Harbitz, C. B., LeVeque, R. J., Lorito, S., Løvholt, F., Omira, R., Mueller, C., Paris, R., Parsons, T., Polet, J., Power, W., Selva, J., Sørensen, M. B., Thio, H. K., and Harbitz, C. B.: Probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis: Multiple sources and global applications, Rev. Geophys., 55, 1158–1198, https://doi.org/10.1002/2017RG000579, 2017.
Guler, H. G., Arikawa, T., Oei, T., and Yalciner, A. C.: Performance of rubble mound breakwaters under tsunami attack, a case study: Haydarpasa Port, Istanbul, Turkey, Coast. Eng., 104, 43–53, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.coastaleng.2015.07.007, 2015.
Gutenberg, B. and Richter, C. F.: Frequency of earthquakes in California, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am., 34, 185–188, 1944.
Hancilar, U.: Identification of elements at risk for a credible tsunami event for Istanbul, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 12, 107–119,
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-12-107-2012, 2012.
Hébert, H., Schindele, F., Altinok, Y., Alpar, B., and Gazioglu, C.: Tsunami hazard in the Marmara Sea (Turkey): a numerical approach to discuss active faulting and impact on the Istanbul coastal areas, Mar. Geol., 215, 23–43, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.margeo.2004.11.006 ,2005.
Hergert, T. and Heidbach, O.: Slip-rate variability and distributed deformation in the Marmara Sea fault system, Nat. Geosci., 3, 132–135, https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo739, 2010.
Hergert, T., Heidbach, O., Bécel, A., and Laigle, M.: Geomechanical model of the Marmara Sea region – I. 3-D contemporary kinematics, Geophys. J. Int., 185, 1073–1089, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-246X.2011.04991.x, 2011.
Horspool, N., Pranantyo, I., Griffin, J., Latief, H., Natawidjaja, D. H., Kongko, W., Cipta, A., Bustaman, B., Anugrah, S. D., and Thio, H. K.: A
probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment for Indonesia, Nat. Hazards Earth
Syst. Sci., 14, 3105–3122, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-3105-2014, 2014.
Imamura, F.: Tsunami Numerical Simulation with the Staggered Leap-frog Scheme (Numerical code of TUNAMI-N1), School of Civil Engineering, Asian Institute Technical and Disaster Control Research Center, Tohoku University, Tohoku, 1989.
Imamura, F., Yalçıner, A. C., and Özyurt, G.: TUNAMI-N2:
Tsunami Modelling Manual, available at: http://www.tsunami.civil.tohoku.ac.jp/hokusai3/J/projects/manual-ver-3.1.pdf
(last access: 20 March 2019), 2001.
Imren, C., Le Pichon, X., Rangin, C., Demirbağ, E., Ecevitoğlu, B.,
and Görür, N.: The North Anatolian Fault within the Sea of Marmara:
a new interpretation based on multi-channel seismic and multi-beam bathymetry data, Earth Planet. Sc. Lett., 186, 143–158, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0012-821X(01)00241-2, 2001.
Insel, I.: The Effects of the Material Density and Dimensions of the Landslide on the Generated Tsunamis, Msc Thesis, Middle East Technical University, Ankara, Turkey, 2009.
Jonkman, S. N. and Penning-Rowsell, E.: Human instability in Flood Flows, J. Am. Water Resour. Assoc., 44, 1208–1218, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1752-1688.2008.00217.x, 2008.
Kanamori, H.: The diversity of the physics of earthquakes, Proc. Japan Acad. Ser. B, 80, 297–316, https://doi.org/10.2183/pjab.80.297, 2004.
Kaneko, F.: A simulation analysis of possible tsunami affecting the Istanbul
coast, Turkey, in: International Workshop on Tsunami Hazard Assessment and
Management in Bangladesh, 21–22 January 2009, Dhaka, Bangladesh, 2009.
Karabulut, H., Bouin, M. P., Bouchon, M., Dietrich, M., Cornou, C., and Aktar, M.: The seismicity in the eastern Marmara Sea after the 17 August 1999 Izmit earthquake, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am., 92, 387–393, https://doi.org/10.1785/0120000820, 2002.
Karabulut, H., Özalaybey, S., Taymaz, T., Aktar, M., Selvi, O., and
Kocaoğlu, A.: A tomographic image of the shallow crustal structure in the Eastern Marmara, Geophys. Res. Lett, 30, 2277, https://doi.org/10.1029/2003GL018074, 2003.
KOERI – Kandilli Observatory and Earthquake Research Institute: Bosphorus Univercity: Bogazici University Kandilli Observatory And Earthquake Research Institute, International Federation of Digital Seismograph Networks, Dataset/Seismic Network, https://doi.org/10.7914/SN/KO, 2001.
Latcharote, P., Suppasri, A., Imamura, F., Aytore, B., and Yalciner, A. C.:
Possible worst-case tsunami scenarios around the Marmara Sea from combined
earthquake and landslide sources, in: Global Tsunami Science: Past and
Future, Vol. I, Birkhäuser, Cham, 3823–3846, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00024-016-1411-z, 2016.
Le Pichon, X., Şengör, A. M. C., Demirbağ, E., Rangin, C., Imren, C., Armijo, R., Görür, N., Çağatay, N., de Lépinay, B. M., Meyer, B., Saatçılar, R., and Tok, B.: The active main Marmara fault, Earth Planet. Sc. Lett., 192, 595–616, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0012-821X(01)00449-6, 2001.
Le Pichon, X., Chamot-Rooke, N., Rangin, C., and Sengör, A. M. C.: The
North Anatolian fault in the sea of Marmara, J. Geophys. Res.-Solid, 108, 2179, https://doi.org/10.1029/2002JB001862, 2003.
Le Pichon, X., Imren, C., Rangin, C., Şengör, A. C., and Siyako, M.:
The South Marmara Fault, Int. J. Earth Sci., 103, 219–231, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00531-013-0950-0, 2014.
Le Pichon, X., Şengör, A. C., Kende, J., İmren, C., Henry, P., Grall, C., and Karabulut, H.: Propagation of a strike-slip plate boundary
within an extensional environment: the westward propagation of the North
Anatolian Fault, Can. J. Earth Sci., 53, 1416–1439, https://doi.org/10.1139/cjes-2015-0129, 2015.
Lorito, S., Selva, J., Basili, R., Romano, F., Tiberti, M. M., and Piatanesi, A.: Probabilistic hazard for seismically induced tsunamis: accuracy and feasibility of inundation maps, Geophys. J. Int., 200, 574–588, https://doi.org/10.1093/gji/ggu408, 2015.
Løvholt, F., Glimsdal, S., Harbitz, C. B., Zamora, N., Nadim, F., Peduzzi, P., and Smebye, H.: Tsunami hazard and exposure on the global scale, Earth-Sci. Rev., 110, 58–73, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.earscirev.2011.10.002, 2012.
Løvholt, F., Griffin, J., and Salgado-Gálvez, M.: Tsunami hazard and
risk assessment at a global scale, Encyclopedia of complexity and systems
science, 1–34, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-27737-5_642-1, 2015.
Lynett, P. J., Gately, K., Wilson, R., Montoya, L., Arcas, D., Aytore, B.,
and David, C. G.: Inter-model analysis of tsunami-induced coastal currents, Ocean Model., 114, 14–32, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ocemod.2017.04.003, 2017.
Matthews, M. V., Ellsworth, W. L., and Reasenberg, P. A.: A Brownian model
for recurrent earthquakes, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am., 92, 2233–2250, https://doi.org/10.1785/0120010267, 2002.
McNeill, L. C., Mille, A., Minshull, T. A., Bull, J. M., Kenyon, N. H., and
Ivanov, M.: Extension of the North Anatolian Fault into the North Aegean Trough: Evidence for transtension, strain partitioning, and analogues for
Sea of Marmara basin models, Tectonics, 23, TC2016, https://doi.org/10.1029/2002TC001490, 2004.
Meade, B. J., Hager, B. H., McClusky, S. C., Reilinger, R. E., Ergintav, S.,
Lenk, O., Barka, A., and Özener, H.: Estimates of seismic potential in the Marmara Sea region from block models of secular deformation constrained by Global Positioning System measurements, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am., 92, 208–215, https://doi.org/10.1785/0120000837, 2002.
Murru, M., Akinci, A., Falcone, G., Pucci, S., Console, R., and Parsons, T.:
M≥7 earthquake rupture forecast and time-dependent probability for the
Sea of Marmara region Turkey, J. Geophys. Res.-Solid, 121, 2679–2707, https://doi.org/10.1002/2015JB012595, 2016.
NAMI DANCE: Manual of Numerical Code NAMI DANCE, available at:
http://namidance.ce.metu.edu.tr (last access: 12 October 2018), 2011.
NTHMP: Proceedings and Results of the National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation
Program 2015 Tsunami Current Modeling Workshop, Portland, Oregon, 2015.
Oglesby, D. D. and Mai, P. M.: Fault geometry, rupture dynamics and ground
motion from potential earthquakes on the North Anatolian Fault under the Sea
of Marmara, Geophys. J. Int., 188, 1071–1087, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-246X.2011.05289.x, 2012.
Okada, Y.: Surface deformation due to shear and tensile faults in a half-space, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am., 75, 1135–1154, 1985.
Okay, A. I., Demirbağ, E., Kurt, H., Okay, N., and Kuşçu, İ.: An active, deep marine strike-slip basin along the North Anatolian fault in Turkey, Tectonics, 18, 129–147, https://doi.org/10.1029/1998TC900017, 1999.
Ozer Sozdinler, C., Necmioglu, O., Bayraktar, H. B., and Ozel, N. M.: Tectonic Origin Tsunami Scenario Database for the Marmara Region, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2019-186, in review, 2019.
Parsons, T.: Recalculated probability of M≥7 earthquakes beneath the Sea of Marmara, Turkey, J. Geophys. Res.-Solid, 109, B05304, https://doi.org/10.1029/2003JB002667, 2004.
Petersen, M. D., Cao, T., Campbell, K. W., and Frankel, A. D.: Time-independent and time-dependent seismic hazard assessment for the State
of California: Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast Model 1.0, Seismol. Res. Lett., 78, 99–109, https://doi.org/10.1785/gssrl.78.1.99, 2007.
Pondard, N., Armijo, R., King, G. C., Meyer, B., and Flerit, F.: Fault
interactions in the Sea of Marmara pull-apart (North Anatolian Fault): earthquake clustering and propagating earthquake sequences, Geophys. J. Int., 171, 1185–1197, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-246X.2007.03580.x, 2007.
Reilinger, R., McClusky, S., Vernant, P., Lawrence, S., Ergintav, S.,
Cakmak, R., Ozener, H., Kadirov, F., Guliev, I., Stepanyan, R., Nadariya, M., Hahubia, G., Mahmoud, S., Sakr, K. ArRajehi, A., Paradissis, D., Al-Aydrus, A., Prilepin, M., Guseva, T., Evren, E., Dmitrotsa, A., Filikov, S. V., Gomez, F., Al-Ghazzi, R., and Karam, G. : GPS constraints on continental deformation in the Africa-Arabia-Eurasia continental collision zone and implications for the dynamics of plate interactions, J. Geophys. Res.-Solid, 111, B05411, https://doi.org/10.1029/2005JB004051, 2006.
Ren, J. and Zhang, S.: Estimation of recurrence interval of large earthquakes on the Central Longmen Shan fault zone based on seismic moment accumulation/release model, Scient. World J., 2013, 458341, https://doi.org/10.1155/2013/458341, 2013.
Rikitake, T.: Probability of earthquake occurrence as estimated from crustal
strain, Tectonophysics, 23, 299–312, https://doi.org/10.1016/0040-1951(74)90029-8, 1974.
Ryall, A., Slemmons, D. B., and Gedney, L. D.: Seismicity, tectonism, and
surface faulting in the western United States during historic time, Bull.
Seismol. Soc. Am., 56, 1105–1135, 1966.
Schwartz, D. P. and Coppersmith, K. J.: Fault behavior and characteristic
earthquakes: Examples from the Wasatch and San Andreas fault zones, J.
Geophys. Res.-Solid, 89, 5681–5698, https://doi.org/10.1029/JB089iB07p05681, 1984.
Selva, J., Tonini, R., Molinari, I., Tiberti, M. M., Romano, F., Grezio, A.,
and Lorito, S.: Quantification of source uncertainties in seismic probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis (SPTHA), Geophys. J. Int., 205, 1780–1803, https://doi.org/10.1093/gji/ggw107, 2016.
Şengör, A. C., Grall, C., İmren, C., Le Pichon, X., Görür, N., Henry, P., and Siyako, M.: The geometry of the North
Anatolian transform fault in the Sea of Marmara and its temporal evolution:
implications for the development of intracontinental transform faults, Can. J. Earth Sci., 51, 222–242, https://doi.org/10.1139/cjes-2013-0160, 2014.
Shuto, N., Goto, C., and Imamura, F.: Numerical simulation as a means of
warning for near-field tsunamis, Coast. Eng. Japan, 33, 173–193, https://doi.org/10.1080/05785634.1990.11924532, 1990.
Sørensen, M. B., Spada, M., Babeyko, A., Wiemer, S., and Grünthal, G.: Probabilistic tsunami hazard in the Mediterranean Sea, J. Geophys. Res.-Solid, 117, B01305, https://doi.org/10.1029/2010JB008169, 2012.
Stein, R. S., Barka, A. A., and Dieterich, J. H.: Progressive failure on the
North Anatolian fault since 1939 by earthquake stress triggering, Geophys. J. Int., 128, 594–604, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-246X.1997.tb05321.x, 1997.
Synolakis, C. E., Bernard, E. N., Titov, V. V., Kânoğlu, U., and
González, F. I.: Standards, Criteria, and Procedures for NOAA Evaluation
of Tsunami Numerical Models, NOAA OAR Special Report, Contribution No. 3053, NOAA/OAR/PMEL, Seattle, Washington, 55 pp., 2007.
Synolakis, C. E., Bernard, E. N., Titov, V. V., Kânoğlu, U., and
Gonzalez, F. I.: Validation and verification of tsunami numerical models,
in: Tsunami Science Four Years after the 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami,
Birkhäuser, Basel, 2197–2228, 2008.
Takagi, H., Mikami, T., Fujii, D., Esteban, M., and Kurobe, S.: Mangrove
forest against dyke-break-induced tsunami on rapidly subsiding coasts, Nat.
Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 1629–1638, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-1629-2016, 2016.
Tinti, S., Armigliato, A., Manucci, A., Pagnoni, G., Zaniboni, F., Yalçiner, A. C., and Altinok, Y.: The generating mechanisms of the August 17, 1999 Izmit bay (Turkey) tsunami: regional (tectonic) and local (mass instabilities) causes, Mar. Geol., 225, 311–330,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.margeo.2005.09.010, 2006.
Tufekci, D., Suzen, M. L., Yalciner, A. C., and Zaytsev, A.: Revised MeTHuVA
method for assessment of tsunami human vulnerability of Bakirkoy district,
Istanbul, Nat. Hazards, 90, 943–974, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-017-3082-1, 2018.
Utkucu, M., Kanbur, Z., Alptekin, Ö., and Sünbül, F.: Seismic
behaviour of the North Anatolian Fault beneath the Sea of Marmara (NW Turkey): implications for earthquake recurrence times and future seismic
hazard, Nat. Hazards, 50, 45–71, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-008-9317-4, 2009.
Velioglu, D.: Advanced Two and Three Dimensional Tsunami Models: Benchmarking and Validation, Msc. Thesis, Middle East Technical University, Ankara, Turkey, 2009.
Wells, D. L. and Coppersmith, K. J.: New empirical relationships among
magnitude, rupture length, rupture width, rupture area, and surface displacement, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am., 84, 974–1002, 1994.
Wessel, P. and Smith, W. H.: New, improved version of Generic Mapping Tools
released, Eos Trans. Am. Geophys. Union, 79, 579–579, https://doi.org/10.1029/98EO00426, 1998.
WGCEP – Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities: Earthquake
probabilities in the San Francisco Bay region: 2002–2031, US Geological
Survey Open-File Report 03-214, US Geological Survey, Menlo Park, CA, 2003.
Wong, H. K., Lüdmann, T., Ulug, A., and Görür, N.: The Sea of
Marmara: a plate boundary sea in an escape tectonic regime, Tectonophysics,
244, 231–250, https://doi.org/10.1016/0040-1951(94)00245-5, 1995.
Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities: Earthquake probabilities in the San Francisco Bay Region: 2000 to 2030 a summary of
findings, US Geol. Surv. Open-File Rept. 99-517, US Geological Survey, Menlo Park, CA, 1999.
Yalciner, A. C., Synolakis, C., Borrero, J., Altinok, Y., Watts, P., Imamura, F., Kuran, U., Ersoy, Ş. S., Kanoğlu, U., and Tinti, S.: Tsunami generation in Izmit Bay by the 1999 Izmit earthquake, Conferance on the 1999 Kocaeli Earthquake, Istanbul Technical University, Istanbul, Turkey, 217–221, 1999.
Yalciner, A. C., Altinok, Y., Synolakis, C. E., Borrero, J., Imamura, F., Ersoy, S., Kuran, U., Tinti, S., Eskijian, M., Freikman, J., Yuksel, Y., Alpar, B., Watts, P., Kanoglu, U., and Bardet, J.-P.: Tsunami waves in İzmit Bay, Earthq. Spect., 16, 55–62, 2000.
Yalçıner, A. C., Alpar, B., Altınok, Y., Özbay, İ., and
Imamura, F.: Tsunamis in the Sea of Marmara: Historical documents for the
past, models for the future, Mar. Geol., 190, 445–463, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0025-3227(02)00358-4, 2002.
Yalçıner, A., Annunziato, A., Papadopoulos, G., Dogan, G. G., Guler,
H. G., Cakir, T. E., and Kanoglu, U.: The 20th July 2017 (22: 31 UTC)
Bodrum-Kos Earthquake and Tsunami: Post Tsunami Field Survey Report, available at:
http://users.metu.edu.tr/yalciner/july-21-2017-tsunami-report/Report-Field-Survey-of-July-20-2017-Bodrum-Kos-Tsunami.pdf
(last access: 11 December 2019), 2017.
Yaltırak, C.: Tectonic evolution of the Marmara Sea and its surroundings, Mar. Geol., 190, 493–529, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0025-3227(02)00360-2, 2002.
Youngs, R. R. and Coppersmith, K. J.: Implications of fault slip rates and
earthquake recurrence models to probabilistic seismic hazard estimates, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am., 75, 939–964, 1985.
Zolfaghari, M. R.: Development of a synthetically generated earthquake
catalogue towards assessment of probabilistic seismic hazard for Tehran, Nat. Hazards, 76, 497–514, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-014-1500-1, 2015.
Short summary
In this study, probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis was performed for the Tuzla region in case of a Prince Island fault rupture, which is the closest fault zone to the megacity Istanbul, and it has been silent for centuries. A synthetic earthquake catalog is generated using Monte Carlo simulations, and these events are used for tsunami analysis. The results of the study show that the probability of exceedance of 0.3 m tsunami wave height is bigger than 90 % for the next 50 and 100 years.
In this study, probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis was performed for the Tuzla region in case...
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint