Articles | Volume 20, issue 6
Research article
15 Jun 2020
Research article |  | 15 Jun 2020

Probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis for Tuzla test site using Monte Carlo simulations

Hafize Basak Bayraktar and Ceren Ozer Sozdinler

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Cited articles

Abrahamson, N. A. and Bommer, J. J.: Probability and uncertainty in seismic hazard analysis, Earthq. Spect., 21, 603–607,, 2005. 
Aki, K.: Asperities, barriers, characteristic earthquakes and strong motion prediction, J. Geophys. Res.-Solid, 89, 5867–5872,, 1984. 
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Aksu, A. E., Calon, T. J., Hiscott, R. N., and Yasar, D.: Anatomy of the North Anatolian Fault Zone in the Marmara Sea, Western Turkey: extensional basins above a continental transform, GSA Today, 10, 3–7, 2000. 
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Short summary
In this study, probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis was performed for the Tuzla region in case of a Prince Island fault rupture, which is the closest fault zone to the megacity Istanbul, and it has been silent for centuries. A synthetic earthquake catalog is generated using Monte Carlo simulations, and these events are used for tsunami analysis. The results of the study show that the probability of exceedance of 0.3 m tsunami wave height is bigger than 90 % for the next 50 and 100 years.
Final-revised paper