Research article
03 Jul 2017
Research article | 03 Jul 2017
Simple and approximate estimations of future precipitation return values
Rasmus E. Benestad et al.
Related authors
Downscaling probability of long heatwaves based on seasonal mean daily maximum temperatures
Rasmus E. Benestad, Bob van Oort, Flavio Justino, Frode Stordal, Kajsa M. Parding, Abdelkader Mezghani, Helene B. Erlandsen, Jana Sillmann, and Milton E. Pereira-Flores
Adv. Stat. Clim. Meteorol. Oceanogr., 4, 37–52, https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-4-37-2018,https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-4-37-2018, 2018
Short summary
Agnotology: learning from mistakes
R. E. Benestad, H. O. Hygen, R. van Dorland, J. Cook, and D. Nuccitelli
Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/esdd-4-451-2013,https://doi.org/10.5194/esdd-4-451-2013, 2013
Revised manuscript not accepted
Downscaling probability of long heatwaves based on seasonal mean daily maximum temperatures
Rasmus E. Benestad, Bob van Oort, Flavio Justino, Frode Stordal, Kajsa M. Parding, Abdelkader Mezghani, Helene B. Erlandsen, Jana Sillmann, and Milton E. Pereira-Flores
Adv. Stat. Clim. Meteorol. Oceanogr., 4, 37–52, https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-4-37-2018,https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-4-37-2018, 2018
Short summary
CHASE-PL Climate Projection dataset over Poland – bias adjustment of EURO-CORDEX simulations
Abdelkader Mezghani, Andreas Dobler, Jan Erik Haugen, Rasmus E. Benestad, Kajsa M. Parding, Mikołaj Piniewski, Ignacy Kardel, and Zbigniew W. Kundzewicz
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 9, 905–925, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-9-905-2017,https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-9-905-2017, 2017
Short summary
CPLFD-GDPT5: High-resolution gridded daily precipitation and temperature data set for two largest Polish river basins
Tomasz Berezowski, Mateusz Szcześniak, Ignacy Kardel, Robert Michałowski, Tomasz Okruszko, Abdelkader Mezghani, and Mikołaj Piniewski
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 8, 127–139, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-8-127-2016,https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-8-127-2016, 2016
Short summary
Agnotology: learning from mistakes
R. E. Benestad, H. O. Hygen, R. van Dorland, J. Cook, and D. Nuccitelli
Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/esdd-4-451-2013,https://doi.org/10.5194/esdd-4-451-2013, 2013
Revised manuscript not accepted
Related subject area
Ambient conditions prevailing during hail events in central Europe
Michael Kunz, Jan Wandel, Elody Fluck, Sven Baumstark, Susanna Mohr, and Sebastian Schemm
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1867–1887, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1867-2020,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1867-2020, 2020
Short summary
Hydrometeorological droughts in the Miño–Limia–Sil hydrographic demarcation (northwestern Iberian Peninsula): the role of atmospheric drivers
Rogert Sorí, Marta Vázquez, Milica Stojanovic, Raquel Nieto, Margarida L. R. Liberato, and Luis Gimeno
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1805–1832, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1805-2020,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1805-2020, 2020
An 18-year climatology of derechos in Germany
Christoph P. Gatzen, Andreas H. Fink, David M. Schultz, and Joaquim G. Pinto
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1335–1351, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1335-2020,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1335-2020, 2020
Short summary
Modelling global tropical cyclone wind footprints
James M. Done, Ming Ge, Greg J. Holland, Ioana Dima-West, Samuel Phibbs, Geoffrey R. Saville, and Yuqing Wang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 567–580, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-567-2020,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-567-2020, 2020
Short summary
Simulations of the 2005, 1910, and 1876 Vb cyclones over the Alps – sensitivity to model physics and cyclonic moisture flux
Peter Stucki, Paul Froidevaux, Marcelo Zamuriano, Francesco Alessandro Isotta, Martina Messmer, and Andrey Martynov
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 35–57, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-35-2020,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-35-2020, 2020
Short summary
Changes in flood damage with global warming on the eastern coast of Spain
Maria Cortès, Marco Turco, Philip Ward, Josep A. Sánchez-Espigares, Lorenzo Alfieri, and Maria Carmen Llasat
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 2855–2877, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-2855-2019,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-2855-2019, 2019
Short summary
First reported case of thunderstorm asthma in Israel
Yoav Yair, Yifat Yair, Baruch Rubin, Ronit Confino-Cohen, Yosef Rosman, Eduardo Shachar, and Menachem Rottem
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 2715–2725, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-2715-2019,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-2715-2019, 2019
Short summary
Meteorological conditions leading to the 2015 Salgar flash flood: lessons for vulnerable regions in tropical complex terrain
Carlos D. Hoyos, Lina I. Ceballos, Jhayron S. Pérez-Carrasquilla, Julián Sepúlveda, Silvana M. López-Zapata, Manuel D. Zuluaga, Nicolás Velásquez, Laura Herrera-Mejía, Olver Hernández, Gisel Guzmán-Echavarría, and Mauricio Zapata
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 2635–2665, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-2635-2019,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-2635-2019, 2019
Short summary
Identifying a transition climate zone in an arid river basin using the evaporative stress index
Yongqiang Liu, Lu Hao, Decheng Zhou, Cen Pan, Peilong Liu, Zhe Xiong, and Ge Sun
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 2281–2294, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-2281-2019,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-2281-2019, 2019
Short summary
The impact of lightning and radar reflectivity factor data assimilation on the very short-term rainfall forecasts of RAMS@ISAC: application to two case studies in Italy
Stefano Federico, Rosa Claudia Torcasio, Elenio Avolio, Olivier Caumont, Mario Montopoli, Luca Baldini, Gianfranco Vulpiani, and Stefano Dietrich
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 1839–1864, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1839-2019,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1839-2019, 2019
Short summary
Effects of horizontal resolution and air–sea flux parameterization on the intensity and structure of simulated Typhoon Haiyan (2013)
Mien-Tze Kueh, Wen-Mei Chen, Yang-Fan Sheng, Simon C. Lin, Tso-Ren Wu, Eric Yen, Yu-Lin Tsai, and Chuan-Yao Lin
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 1509–1539, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1509-2019,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1509-2019, 2019
Short summary
Flood risk in a range of spatial perspectives – from global to local scales
Zbigniew W. Kundzewicz, Buda Su, Yanjun Wang, Guojie Wang, Guofu Wang, Jinlong Huang, and Tong Jiang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 1319–1328, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1319-2019,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1319-2019, 2019
Short summary
A high-resolution spatial assessment of the impacts of drought variability on vegetation activity in Spain from 1981 to 2015
Sergio M. Vicente-Serrano, Cesar Azorin-Molina, Marina Peña-Gallardo, Miquel Tomas-Burguera, Fernando Domínguez-Castro, Natalia Martín-Hernández, Santiago Beguería, Ahmed El Kenawy, Iván Noguera, and Mónica García
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 1189–1213, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1189-2019,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1189-2019, 2019
Short summary
Chilling accumulation in fruit trees in Spain under climate change
Alfredo Rodríguez, David Pérez-López, Enrique Sánchez, Ana Centeno, Iñigo Gómara, Alessandro Dosio, and Margarita Ruiz-Ramos
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 1087–1103, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1087-2019,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1087-2019, 2019
Short summary
Summertime precipitation extremes in a EURO-CORDEX 0.11° ensemble at an hourly resolution
Peter Berg, Ole B. Christensen, Katharina Klehmet, Geert Lenderink, Jonas Olsson, Claas Teichmann, and Wei Yang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 957–971, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-957-2019,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-957-2019, 2019
Short summary
Impact of airborne cloud radar reflectivity data assimilation on kilometre-scale numerical weather prediction analyses and forecasts of heavy precipitation events
Mary Borderies, Olivier Caumont, Julien Delanoë, Véronique Ducrocq, Nadia Fourrié, and Pascal Marquet
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 907–926, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-907-2019,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-907-2019, 2019
Short summary
High-spatial-resolution probability maps of drought duration and magnitude across Spain
Fernando Domínguez-Castro, Sergio M. Vicente-Serrano, Miquel Tomás-Burguera, Marina Peña-Gallardo, Santiago Beguería, Ahmed El Kenawy, Yolanda Luna, and Ana Morata
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 611–628, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-611-2019,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-611-2019, 2019
Short summary
Cited articles
Arkin, P. A., Joyce, R., and Janowiak, J. E.: The estimation of global monthly mean rainfall using infrared satellite data: The GOES precipitation index (GPI), Remote Sensing Reviews, 11, 107–124, https://doi.org/10.1080/02757259409532261, 1994.
Benestad, R.: Novel Methods for Inferring Future Changes in Extreme Rainfall over Northern Europe, Clim. Res., 34, 195–210, 2007.
Benestad, R. E.: Association between trends in daily rainfall percentiles and the global mean temperature, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 118, 10802–10810, https://doi.org/10.1002/jgrd.50814, 2013.
Benestad, R. E.: A Mental Picture of the Greenhouse Effect: A Pedagogic Explanation, Theor. Appl. Climatol., 128, 679–688, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-016-1732-y, 2016.
Benestad, R. E.: Simple and approximate estimation of future precipitation return-values, https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.5047789.v1, 2017.
Benestad, R. E. and Haugen, J. E.: On Complex Extremes: Flood hazards and combined high spring-time precipitation and temperature in Norway, Climatic Change, 85, 381–406, 2007.
Benestad, R. E. and Mezghani, A.: On downscaling probabilities for heavy 24-hour precipitation events at seasonal-to-decadal scales, Tellus A, 67, 25954, https://doi.org/10.3402/tellusa.v67.25954, 2015.
Benestad, R., Nychka, D., and Mearns, L. O.: Specification of wet-day daily rainfall quantiles from the mean value, Tellus A, 64, 14981, https://doi.org/10.3402/tellusa.v64i0.14981, 2012b.
Berg, P., Moseley, C., and Haerter, J. O.: Strong increase in convective precipitation in response to higher temperatures, Nat. Geosci., 6, 181–185, https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo1731, 2013.
Cheng, L., AghaKouchak, A., Gilleland, E., and Katz, R. W.: Non-stationary extreme value analysis in a changing climate, Climatic Change, 127, 353–369, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-014-1254-5, 2014.
Coles, S. G.: An Introduction to Statistical Modeling of Extreme Values, Springer, London, 2001.
Deser, C., Knutti, R., Solomon, S., and Phillips, A. S.: Communication of the role of natural variability in future North American climate, Nature Climate Change, 2, 775–779, 2012.
Field, C., Barros, V., Stocker, T. F., Qin, D., Dokken, D. J., Ebi, K. L., Mastrandrea, M. D., Mach, K. J., Plattner, G.-K., Allen, S. K., Tignor, M., and Midgley, P. M., (Eds.): Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation. A Special Report of Working Groups I and II of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, and New York, NY, USA, 2012.
Frei, C., Schöll, R., Fukutome, S., Schmidli, J., and Vidale, P. L.: Future change of precipitation extremes in Europe: Intercomparison of scenarios from regional climate models, J. Geophys. Res., 111, D06105, https://doi.org/10.1029/2005JD005965, 2006.
Fujibe, F.: Clausius-Clapeyron-like relationship in multidecadal changes of extreme short-term precipitation and temperature in Japan: Multidecadal changes of extreme precipitation and temperature in Japan, Atmos. Sci. Lett., 14, 127–132, https://doi.org/10.1002/asl2.428, 2013.
Hov, O., Cubasch, C., Fischer, E., Hoppe, P., Iversen, T., Kvamsto, N., Kundzewicz, Z., Rezacova, D., Rios, D., Santos, F., Schadler, B., Veisz, O., Zerefos, G., Benestad, R., Murlis, J., Donat, M., Leckebusch, G., and Ulbrich, U.: Extreme Weather Events in Europe: preparing for climate change adaptation, Tech. rep., MET Norway, The Norwegian Academy of Sciences and Letters (DNVA), European Academies Science Advicery Council (EASAC), 2013.
Hurrell, J. W.: Decadal trends in the North Atlantic Oscillation: Regional temperatures and precipitation, Science, 269, 676–679, 1995.
Kalnay, E., Kanamitsu, M., Kistler, R., Collins, W., Deaven, D., Gandin, L., Iredell, M., Saha, S., White, G., Wollen, J., Zhu, Y., Chelliah, M., Ebisuzaki, W., Higgins, W., Janowiak, J., Mo, K. C., Ropelewski, C., Wang, J., Leetmaa, A., Reynolds, R., Jenne, R., and Joseph, D.: The NCEP/NCAR 40-Year Reanalysis Project, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 77, 437–471, 1996.
Klein Tank, A. J. B. W., Konnen, G. P., Böhm, R., Demarée, G., Gocheva, A., Mileta, M., Pashiardis, S., Hejkrlik, L., Kern-Hansen, C., Heino, R., Bessemoulin, P., Müller-Westermeier, G., Tzanakou, M., Szalai, S., Pálsdóttir, T., Fitzgerald, D., Rubin, S., Capaldo, M., Maugeri, M., Leitass, A., Bukantis, A., Aberfeld, R., Engelen, van Engelen, A. F. V., Førland, E., Mietus, M., Coelho, F., Mares, C., Razuvaev, V., Nieplova, E., Cegnar, T., López, J. A., Dahlström, B., Moberg, A., Kirchhofer, W., Ceylan, A., Pachaliuk, O., Alexander, L. V., and Petrovic, P.: Daily dataset of 20th-century surface air temperature and precipitation series for the European Climate Assessment, Int. J. Climatol., 22, 1441–1453, 2002.
Orskaug, E., Scheel, I., Frigessi, A., Guttorp, P., Haugen, J., Tveito, O., and Haug, O.: Evaluation of a dynamic downscaling of precipitation over the Norwegian mainland, Tellus, 63, 746–756, 2011.
Pall, P., Allen, M. R., and Stone, D. A.: Testing the Clausius–Clapeyron constraint on changes in extreme precipitation under CO
2 warming, Clim. Dynam., 28, 351–363, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-006-0180-2, 2007.
Papalexiou, S. M. and Koutsoyiannis, D.: Battle of extreme value distributions: A global survey on extreme daily rainfall, Water Resour. Res., 49, 187–201, https://doi.org/10.1029/2012WR012557, 2013.
Press, W. H., Flannery, B. P., Teukolsky, S. A., and Vetterling, W. T.: Numerical Recipes in Pascal, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, 1989.
Sanderson, B. M., Knutti, R., and Caldwell, P.: Addressing Interdependency in a Multimodel Ensemble by Interpolation of Model Properties, J. Climate, 28, 5150–5170, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00361.1, 2015.
Stocker, T. F., Qin, D., Plattner, G.-K., Tignor, M., Allen, S. K., Boschung, J., Nauels, A., Xia, Y., Bex, V., and Midgley, M.: Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovern – mental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Pres, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 2013.
Strang, G.: Linear Algebra and its Application, Harcourt Brace & Company, San Diego, California, USA, 1988.
Takayabu, I., Kanamaru, H., Dairaku, K., Benestad, R., Storch, H. V., and Christensen, J. H.: Reconsidering the quality and utility of downscaling, J. Meteorol. Soc. Jpn., 94, 31–45, https://doi.org/10.2151/jmsj.2015-042, 2015.
Taylor, K. E., Stouffer, R. J., and Meehl, G. A.: An Overview of CMIP5 and the Experiment Design, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 93, 485–498, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00094.1, 2012.
Trenberth, K. E., Dai, A., Rasmussen, R. M., and Parsons, D. B.: The changing character of precipitation, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 84, 1205–1218, 2003.