Simple and approximate estimations of future precipitation return values

Benestad, Rasmus E.; Parding, Kajsa M.; Mezghani, Abdelkader; Dyrrdal, Anita V.

doi:10.5194/nhess-17-993-2017

Articles | Volume 17, issue 7

https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-993-2017

© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.

Special issue:

Risk and uncertainty estimation in natural hazards

https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-993-2017

© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.

Articles | Volume 17, issue 7

Research article

|

03 Jul 2017

Research article |

| 03 Jul 2017

Simple and approximate estimations of future precipitation return values

Rasmus E. Benestad, Kajsa M. Parding, Abdelkader Mezghani, and Anita V. Dyrrdal

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Jul 2016	46	10	0	56
Aug 2016	57	10	1	68
Sep 2016	21	2	1	24
Oct 2016	20	2	1	23
Nov 2016	18	2	1	21
Dec 2016	3	1	0	4
Jan 2017	5	5	0	10
Feb 2017	6	1	0	7
Mar 2017	18	5	3	26
Apr 2017	17	1	2	20
May 2017	19	3	1	23
Jun 2017	27	2	4	33
Jul 2017	183	50	3	236
Aug 2017	46	22	4	72
Sep 2017	18	9	2	29
Oct 2017	9	6	1	16
Nov 2017	21	14	2	37
Dec 2017	14	7	4	25
Jan 2018	17	15	3	35
Feb 2018	14	2	2	18
Mar 2018	17	7	1	25
Apr 2018	9	4	0	13
May 2018	13	3	0	16
Jun 2018	15	12	4	31
Jul 2018	17	8	2	27
Aug 2018	23	9	3	35
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Dec 2018	11	1	1	13
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May 2019	6	4	0	10
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Jan 2020	16	7	3	26
Feb 2020	12	6	1	19
Mar 2020	7	2	0	9
Apr 2020	3	1	0	4
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Jun 2020	18	10	0	28
Jul 2020	19	27	10	56
Aug 2020	8	9	4	21
Sep 2020	12	4	0	16
Oct 2020	6	8	0	14
Nov 2020	7	8	0	15
Dec 2020	11	7	0	18
Jan 2021	15	3	0	18
Feb 2021	9	14	2	25
Mar 2021	7	1	0	8
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May 2021	3	2	0	5
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Jul 2021	8	3	0	11
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Oct 2021	7	33	0	40
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Jan 2022	9	7	0	16
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Mar 2022	3	4	0	7
Apr 2022	9	8	2	19
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Jun 2022	2	0	2
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Jan 2023	7	10	0	17
Feb 2023	19	6	2	27
Mar 2023	20	7	4	31
Apr 2023	23	9	0	32
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Jul 2023	6	3	1	10
Aug 2023	12	3	3	18
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Oct 2023	11	8	0	19
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Jan 2024	3	4	1	8
Feb 2024	6	5	2	13
Mar 2024	4	8	2	14
Apr 2024	13	5	2	20
May 2024	7	4	1	12
Jun 2024	12	7	2	21
Jul 2024	24	13	5	42
Aug 2024	21	5	3	29
Sep 2024	10	6	2	18
Oct 2024	8	7	1	16
Nov 2024	4	5	0	9
Dec 2024	3	4	1	8
Jan 2025	11	7	1	19
Feb 2025	15	4	2	21
Mar 2025	7	12	2	21
Apr 2025	17	10	1	28
May 2025	21	7	0	28
Jun 2025	45	12	1	58
Jul 2025	23	23	1	47
Aug 2025	30	8	3	41
Sep 2025	34	19	0	53
Oct 2025	12	18	1	31
Nov 2025	21	23	2	46
Dec 2025	19	18	4	41
Jan 2026	12	11	2	25

Cumulative views and downloads (calculated since 26 Jul 2016)

Month	HTML	PDF	XML	Total
Jul 2016	46	10	0	56
Aug 2016	57	10	1	68
Sep 2016	21	2	1	24
Oct 2016	20	2	1	23
Nov 2016	18	2	1	21
Dec 2016	3	1	0	4
Jan 2017	5	5	0	10
Feb 2017	6	1	0	7
Mar 2017	18	5	3	26
Apr 2017	17	1	2	20
May 2017	19	3	1	23
Jun 2017	27	2	4	33
Jul 2017	183	50	3	236
Aug 2017	46	22	4	72
Sep 2017	18	9	2	29
Oct 2017	9	6	1	16
Nov 2017	21	14	2	37
Dec 2017	14	7	4	25
Jan 2018	17	15	3	35
Feb 2018	14	2	2	18
Mar 2018	17	7	1	25
Apr 2018	9	4	0	13
May 2018	13	3	0	16
Jun 2018	15	12	4	31
Jul 2018	17	8	2	27
Aug 2018	23	9	3	35
Sep 2018	17	11	1	29
Oct 2018	10	10	1	21
Nov 2018	20	10	0	30
Dec 2018	11	1	1	13
Jan 2019	10	4	0	14
Feb 2019	2	4	0	6
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Aug 2019	9	6	0	15
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Nov 2019	10	5	1	16
Dec 2019	9	4	1	14
Jan 2020	16	7	3	26
Feb 2020	12	6	1	19
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Apr 2020	3	1	0	4
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Jun 2020	18	10	0	28
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Aug 2020	8	9	4	21
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Oct 2020	6	8	0	14
Nov 2020	7	8	0	15
Dec 2020	11	7	0	18
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Feb 2021	9	14	2	25
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Apr 2021	16	3	0	19
May 2021	3	2	0	5
Jun 2021	7	10	0	17
Jul 2021	8	3	0	11
Aug 2021	8	6	0	14
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Oct 2021	7	33	0	40
Nov 2021	13	27	0	40
Dec 2021	11	5	0	16
Jan 2022	9	7	0	16
Feb 2022	7	4	2	13
Mar 2022	3	4	0	7
Apr 2022	9	8	2	19
May 2022	6	2	1	9
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Jul 2022	2	2	0	4
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Nov 2022	10	7	1	18
Dec 2022	14	3	2	19
Jan 2023	7	10	0	17
Feb 2023	19	6	2	27
Mar 2023	20	7	4	31
Apr 2023	23	9	0	32
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Jun 2023	6	2	1	9
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Aug 2023	12	3	3	18
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Oct 2023	11	8	0	19
Nov 2023	6	1	7
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Jan 2024	3	4	1	8
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Mar 2024	4	8	2	14
Apr 2024	13	5	2	20
May 2024	7	4	1	12
Jun 2024	12	7	2	21
Jul 2024	24	13	5	42
Aug 2024	21	5	3	29
Sep 2024	10	6	2	18
Oct 2024	8	7	1	16
Nov 2024	4	5	0	9
Dec 2024	3	4	1	8
Jan 2025	11	7	1	19
Feb 2025	15	4	2	21
Mar 2025	7	12	2	21
Apr 2025	17	10	1	28
May 2025	21	7	0	28
Jun 2025	45	12	1	58
Jul 2025	23	23	1	47
Aug 2025	30	8	3	41
Sep 2025	34	19	0	53
Oct 2025	12	18	1	31
Nov 2025	21	23	2	46
Dec 2025	19	18	4	41
Jan 2026	12	11	2	25

Latest update: 21 Jan 2026

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Short summary

We propose a strategy for quantifying the maximum effect a temperature change has on heavy precipitation amounts, making use of the limited available sources of information: laws of physics, seasonal variations, mathematical estimation of probability, and s large number of climate model results. An upper bound is estimated rather than the most likely value.