Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
NHESS
Articles | Volume 17, issue 7
Articles | Volume 17, issue 7
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-993-2017
© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Special issue:
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-993-2017
© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Articles | Volume 17, issue 7
Research article
 | 
03 Jul 2017
Research article |  | 03 Jul 2017

Simple and approximate estimations of future precipitation return values

Rasmus E. Benestad, Kajsa M. Parding, Abdelkader Mezghani, and Anita V. Dyrrdal

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Short summary
We propose a strategy for quantifying the maximum effect a temperature change has on heavy precipitation amounts, making use of the limited available sources of information: laws of physics, seasonal variations, mathematical estimation of probability, and s large number of climate model results. An upper bound is estimated rather than the most likely value.
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Risk and uncertainty estimation in natural hazards
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