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Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union
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We propose a strategy for quantifying the maximum effect a temperature change has on heavy precipitation amounts, making use of the limited available sources of information: laws of physics, seasonal variations, mathematical estimation of probability, and s large number of climate model results. An upper bound is estimated rather than the most likely value.
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Articles | Volume 17, issue 7
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 993–1001, 2017
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-993-2017

Special issue: Risk and uncertainty estimation in natural hazards

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 993–1001, 2017
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-993-2017

Research article 03 Jul 2017

Research article | 03 Jul 2017

Simple and approximate estimations of future precipitation return values

Rasmus E. Benestad et al.

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Latest update: 26 Jan 2021
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Short summary
We propose a strategy for quantifying the maximum effect a temperature change has on heavy precipitation amounts, making use of the limited available sources of information: laws of physics, seasonal variations, mathematical estimation of probability, and s large number of climate model results. An upper bound is estimated rather than the most likely value.
Citation
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Final-revised paper
Preprint