Simple and approximate estimations of future precipitation return values

Benestad, Rasmus E.; Parding, Kajsa M.; Mezghani, Abdelkader; Dyrrdal, Anita V.

doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-993-2017

Articles | Volume 17, issue 7

https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-993-2017

© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.

Special issue:

Risk and uncertainty estimation in natural hazards

https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-993-2017

© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.

Articles | Volume 17, issue 7

Research article

|

03 Jul 2017

Research article |

| 03 Jul 2017

Simple and approximate estimations of future precipitation return values

Rasmus E. Benestad, Kajsa M. Parding, Abdelkader Mezghani, and Anita V. Dyrrdal

Supplement

https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-993-2017-supplement

Data sets

Simple and approximate estimation of future precipitation return-values R. E. Benestad https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.5047789.v1

esd V1.0 R. E. Benestad, A. Mezghani, and K. M. Parding https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.29385

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Short summary

We propose a strategy for quantifying the maximum effect a temperature change has on heavy precipitation amounts, making use of the limited available sources of information: laws of physics, seasonal variations, mathematical estimation of probability, and s large number of climate model results. An upper bound is estimated rather than the most likely value.