Articles | Volume 25, issue 2
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-541-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Special issue:
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-541-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
07 Feb 2025
Research article |
| 07 Feb 2025
| 07 Feb 2025
Compound events in Germany in 2018: drivers and case studies
Elena Xoplaki
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Department of Geography, Climatology, Climate Dynamics and Climate Change, Justus Liebig University Giessen, Giessen, Germany
Centre for International Development and Environmental Research, Justus Liebig University Giessen, Giessen, Germany
Florian Ellsäßer
Centre for International Development and Environmental Research, Justus Liebig University Giessen, Giessen, Germany
now at: Department of Natural Resources, ITC – Faculty of Geo-Information Science and Earth Observation, University of Twente, Enschede, the Netherlands
Jens Grieger
Institute of Meteorology, Free University of Berlin, Berlin, Germany
Katrin M. Nissen
Institute of Meteorology, Free University of Berlin, Berlin, Germany
Joaquim G. Pinto
Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research – Troposphere Research (IMKTRO), Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Karlsruhe, Germany
Markus Augenstein
Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research – Troposphere Research (IMKTRO), Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Karlsruhe, Germany
Ting-Chen Chen
Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research – Troposphere Research (IMKTRO), Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Karlsruhe, Germany
now at: Moody's, London, UK
Hendrik Feldmann
Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research – Troposphere Research (IMKTRO), Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Karlsruhe, Germany
Petra Friederichs
Institute of Geosciences, University of Bonn, Bonn, Germany
Daniel Gliksman
Institute of Hydrology and Meteorology, Faculty of Environmental Sciences, Dresden University of Technology, Tharandt, Germany
Institute of Geography, Dresden University of Technology, Dresden, Germany
Laura Goulier
Institute of Bio- and Geosciences, Research Centre Jülich, Jülich, Germany
Karsten Haustein
Climate Service Center Germany (GERICS), Helmholtz-Zentrum Hereon, Hamburg, Germany
now at: Institute for Meteorology, University of Leipzig, Leipzig, Germany
Jens Heinke
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam, Germany
Lisa Jach
Institute of Physics and Meteorology, University of Hohenheim, Stuttgart, Germany
Florian Knutzen
Climate Service Center Germany (GERICS), Helmholtz-Zentrum Hereon, Hamburg, Germany
Stefan Kollet
Institute of Bio- and Geosciences, Research Centre Jülich, Jülich, Germany
Jürg Luterbacher
Department of Geography, Climatology, Climate Dynamics and Climate Change, Justus Liebig University Giessen, Giessen, Germany
Centre for International Development and Environmental Research, Justus Liebig University Giessen, Giessen, Germany
Niklas Luther
Centre for International Development and Environmental Research, Justus Liebig University Giessen, Giessen, Germany
Susanna Mohr
Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research – Troposphere Research (IMKTRO), Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Karlsruhe, Germany
Center for Disaster Management and Risk Reduction Technology (CEDIM), Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Karlsruhe, Germany
Christoph Mudersbach
Institute of Hydraulic Engineering and Hydromechanics, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Bochum University of Applied Sciences, Bochum, Germany
Christoph Müller
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam, Germany
Efi Rousi
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam, Germany
Felix Simon
Institute of Hydraulic Engineering and Hydromechanics, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Bochum University of Applied Sciences, Bochum, Germany
Laura Suarez-Gutierrez
Max-Planck-Institut für Meteorologie, Hamburg, Germany
now at: Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
now at: Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace, CNRS, Paris, France
Svenja Szemkus
Institute of Geosciences, University of Bonn, Bonn, Germany
Sara M. Vallejo-Bernal
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam, Germany
Institute of Geosciences, University of Potsdam, Potsdam, Germany
now at: Institute for Earth System Science and Remote Sensing, University of Leipzig, Leipzig, Germany
Odysseas Vlachopoulos
Centre for International Development and Environmental Research, Justus Liebig University Giessen, Giessen, Germany
Frederik Wolf
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam, Germany
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Chen Yang, Aoqi Sun, Shupeng Zhang, Yongjiu Dai, Stefan Kollet, and Reed Maxwell
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Ned C. Williams, Wolfgang A. Müller, and Joaquim G. Pinto
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Marie Brunel, Stephen B. Wirth, Markus Drüke, Kirsten Thonicke, Henrique Barbosa, Jens Heinke, and Susanne Rolinski
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Sibyll Schaphoff, David Hötten, Christoph Müller, Dieter Gerten, Sebastian Ostberg, and Werner von Bloh
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-6210, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-6210, 2026
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Markus Augenstein, Susanna Mohr, and Michael Kunz
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 4921–4939, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-4921-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-4921-2025, 2025
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A grid-based analysis of lightning in Europe shows a reduction in thunderstorm activity in many regions. Moving away from a grid-based analysis, a spatio-temporal clustering algorithm was used. The results show a slight trend towards the occurrence of smaller, more separated convective clustered events, suggesting changes in the organization of convective systems. One reason for this could be the increased occurrence of the negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation in the last decade.
Svenja Szemkus, Sebastian Buschow, and Petra Friederichs
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-5922, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-5922, 2025
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The impact of heavy rainfall is determined not only by the total amount of precipitation, but also by its spatial and temporal characteristics. This study presents a statistical framework to capture these characteristics - such as duration, length and speed - using radar-based observations. The results reveal systematic patterns in the spatio-temporal organization of extreme precipitation. The approach helps to better understand such events and to assess risks and future climate impacts.
A. Serkan Bayar, Joaquim G. Pinto, Célia M. Gouveia, and Alexandre M. Ramos
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-6004, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-6004, 2025
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Europe is warming faster than the global average, raising concerns about future wildfire risks. Using regional climate models, we find that extreme fire weather is projected to become more severe, more frequent, and more widespread across the continent, especially if global warming reaches 3 °C. The projected increase is mainly linked to a drier atmosphere. Our findings underscore the urgent need to adopt proactive forest management practices to protect vulnerable ecosystems and communities.
Philipp Ertz and Petra Friederichs
Adv. Stat. Clim. Meteorol. Oceanogr., 11, 229–256, https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-11-229-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-11-229-2025, 2025
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We develop a spatial statistical calibration of wind gust observations for the region of Germany with an interpolation to unobserved locations. Furthermore, the model is spatially adaptive and includes the station altitude both as explanatory variable and as offset to increase the distance between stations. This offset allows us to include mountain stations into the training data. Compared to a spatially constant model, the adaptive model improves the representation of extreme wind gusts.
Franziska Tügel, Katrin M. Nissen, Lennart Steffen, Yangwei Zhang, Uwe Ulbrich, and Reinhard Hinkelmann
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 4673–4692, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-4673-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-4673-2025, 2025
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This study examines how extreme rainfall in Berlin, Germany, may intensify due to global warming and how that could worsen flooding in a selected part of the city. We assess the role of the drainage system, infiltration from unsealed surfaces, and a potential adaptation scenario with all roofs as retention roofs in reducing flooding under extreme rainfall. Combining climate and hydrodynamic simulations, we provide insights into future challenges and possible solutions for urban flood management.
Stefan Poll, Paul Rigor, Slavko Brdar, Ha Thi Minh Ho-Hagemann, Carl Hartick, Marco van Hulten, Ana Gonzalez-Nicolas, Johannes Keller, Daniel Caviedes-Voullieme, Harrie-Jan Hendricks-Franssen, Klaus Goergen, and Stefan Kollet
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-5468, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-5468, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Earth System Dynamics (ESD).
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This paper presents TSMP2, a new version of an regional Earth system model that allows to simulate and analyze the complex interactions within terrestrial ecosystems from groundwater to atmosphere. TSMP2 links an atmospheric, a land surface model and an hydrological model through an external coupler and is fully open-source. We describe the TSMP2 model system, present the impact of coupling approaches, and outline our development strategy along with technical and performance aspects.
Kai Kornuber, Emanuele Bevacqua, Mariana Madruga de Brito, Wiebke S. Jäger, Pauline Rivoire, Cassandra D. W. Rogers, Fabiola Banfi, Fulden Batibeniz, James Carruthers, Carlo de Michele, Silvia de Angeli, Cristina Deidda, Marleen C. de Ruiter, Andreas H. Fink, Henrique M. D. Goulart, Katharina Küpfer, Patrick Ludwig, Douglas Maraun, Gabriele Messori, Shruti Nath, Fiachra O’Loughlin, Joaquim G. Pinto, Benjamin Poschlod, Alexandre M. Ramos, Colin Raymond, Andreia F. S. Ribeiro, Deepti Singh, Laura Suarez Gutierrez, Philip J. Ward, and Christopher J. White
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4683, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4683, 2025
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Impacts from extreme weather events are becoming increasingly severe under global warming, in particular when events occur simultaneously or successively. While these complex event combinations are often difficult to analyse as impact data, early warning schemes or modelling frameworks might not be fit for purpose. In this perspective we reflect on the usability of compound event research to bridge the gap between academic research and real-world applications, by formulating a set of guidelines.
Xinrui Liu, Thomas Gasser, Jianmin Ma, Junfeng Liu, Jonas Jägermeyr, Christoph Müller, Christian Folberth, Florian Zabel, Atul Jain, Wenfeng Liu, and Heidi Webber
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4805, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4805, 2025
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This paper presents a crop yield emulator for four major crops (maize, rice, soybean, and wheat). Trained on process-based crop model simulations, it captures yield responses to key drivers: atmospheric CO2, temperature, water availability, and nitrogen use. The emulator closely reproduces the behavior of complex crop models and aligns well with FAO-reported historical yields. It provides a robust and efficient method for representing agricultural outcomes in climate change impact assessments.
Jannes Breier, Luana Schwarz, Hannah Prawitz, Werner von Bloh, Christoph Müller, Stephen Björn Wirth, Max Bechthold, Dieter Gerten, and Jonathan F. Donges
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4475, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4475, 2025
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We present a new modelling framework that links global vegetation and agricultural modelling with human decision-making processes in an integrated simulation approach. This makes it possible to explore how farming practices and environmental changes influence each other over time. By combining climate, land use, and social dynamics in one system, the framework opens new ways to study food security, climate adaptation strategies, and long-term impacts.
Pedro Henrique Lima Alencar, Saskia Arndt, Kei Namba, Márk Somogyvári, Frederik Bart, Fabio Brill, Juan F. Dueñas, Peter Feindt, Daniel Johnson, Nariman Mahmoodi, Christoph Merz, Subham Mukherjee, Katrin Nissen, Eva Nora Paton, Tobias Sauter, Dörthe Tetzlaff, Franziska Tügel, Thomas Vogelpohl, Stenka Valentinova Vulova, Behnam Zamani, and Hui Hui Zhang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 4043–4051, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-4043-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-4043-2025, 2025
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As climate change escalates, the Berlin-Brandenburg region faces new challenges. Climate change-induced extreme events are expected to cause new conflicts to emerge and aggravate existing ones. To guide future research, we co-develop a list of key questions on climate and water challenges in the region. Our findings highlight the need for new research approaches. We expect this list to provide a roadmap for actionable knowledge production to address climate and water challenges in the region.
Andrea L. Campoverde, Uwe Ehret, Patrick Ludwig, and Joaquim G. Pinto
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3988, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3988, 2025
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Droughts are becoming more common in Europe. Our study used vast climate data to uncover extreme unseen low-water events. These simulations show the potential droughts becoming more severe and lasting longer than the damaging 2018 event, which impacted shipping and industry. This research highlights the urgent need for adaptation measures to prevent costly economic and ecological consequences for the Rhine's waterway.
Eva Hartmann, Mingyue Zhang, Sebastian Wagner, Muralidhar Adakudlu, Jürg Luterbacher, and Elena Xoplaki
Clim. Past, 21, 1699–1724, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-21-1699-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-21-1699-2025, 2025
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For the first time, we provide a regional climate model with past climate forcings. The model's sensitivity to each forcing is tested in a case study around the large Samalas volcanic eruption in 1257. The orbital forcing shows the largest effect with an amplification of the seasons in the past compared with the standard model. The volcanic forcing has a strong short-term cooling effect after the volcanic eruption. This model is later used for a transient simulation of the last 2500 years.
Luana Schwarz, Jannes Breier, Hannah Prawitz, Max Bechthold, Werner von Bloh, Sara M. Constantino, Dieter Gerten, Jobst Heitzig, Ronja Hotz, Leander John, Christoph Müller, Johan Rockström, and Jonathan F. Donges
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4079, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4079, 2025
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We present a novel global model that links farmer decisions with ecological processes to explore how agricultural systems co-evolve. Unlike previous tools, it captures feedbacks between society and nature at up-to planetary scale. We find that conservation practices can restore soil health and support stable harvests. Adoption spreads through learning and norms, showing how regeneration at the farm scale can ripple outward, contributing to global sustainability and Earth system resilience.
Clare M. Flynn, Julia Moemken, Joaquim G. Pinto, Michael K. Schutte, and Gabriele Messori
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 17, 4431–4453, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-4431-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-4431-2025, 2025
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We created a new, publicly available, database of the top 50 most extreme European winter windstorms from each of four different meteorological input data sets covering the years 1995–2015. We found variability in all aspects of our database, from which storms were included in the top 50 storms for each input to the storms' spatial variability. We urge users of our database to consider the storms as identified from two or more input sources within our database where possible.
Lily-belle Sweet, Christoph Müller, Jonas Jägermeyr, and Jakob Zscheischler
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3006, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3006, 2025
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This study presents a method to identify climate drivers of an impact, such as agricultural yield failure, from high-resolution weather data. The approach systematically generates, selects and combines predictors that generalise across different environments. Tested on crop model simulations, the identified drivers are used to create parsimonious models that achieve high predictive performance over long time horizons, offering a more interpretable alternative to black-box models.
Bastien François, Khalil Teber, Lou Brett, Richard Leeding, Luis Gimeno-Sotelo, Daniela I. V. Domeisen, Laura Suarez-Gutierrez, and Emanuele Bevacqua
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 1029–1051, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1029-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1029-2025, 2025
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Spatially compounding wind and precipitation (CWP) extremes can lead to severe impacts on society. We find that concurrent climate variability modes favor the occurrence of such wintertime spatially compounding events in the Northern Hemisphere and can even amplify the number of regions and population exposed. Our analysis highlights the importance of considering the interplay between variability modes to improve risk management of such spatially compounding events.
Thorge Wintz, Alexander Röll, Gustavo Brant Paterno, Florian Ellsäßer, Delphine Clara Zemp, Hendrayanto, Bambang Irawan, Alexander Knohl, Holger Kreft, and Dirk Hölscher
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2596, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2596, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Biogeosciences (BG).
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We investigated how the size and diversity of tree patches in Indonesian oil palm landscapes influence the movement of water to the atmosphere and local cooling. Our study shows that larger tree patches increase cooling mainly by supporting greater plant diversity and more complex vegetation structure. These findings suggest that expanding and diversifying tree patches can help manage microclimate and water cycling in agricultural areas.
Edna Johanna Molina Bacca, Miodrag Stevanović, Benjamin Leon Bodirsky, Jonathan Cornelis Doelman, Louise Parsons Chini, Jan Volkholz, Katja Frieler, Christopher Paul Oliver Reyer, George Hurtt, Florian Humpenöder, Kristine Karstens, Jens Heinke, Christoph Müller, Jan Philipp Dietrich, Hermann Lotze-Campen, Elke Stehfest, and Alexander Popp
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 753–801, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-753-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-753-2025, 2025
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Land-use change projections are vital for impact studies. This study compares updated land-use model projections, including CO2 fertilization among other upgrades, from the MAgPIE and IMAGE models under three scenarios, highlighting differences, uncertainty hotspots, and harmonization effects. Key findings include reduced bioenergy crop demand projections and differences in grassland area allocation and sizes, with socioeconomic–climate scenarios' largest effect on variance starting in 2030.
Kai Man, Xichen Li, Jürg Luterbacher, Lei Geng, Naiming Yuan, Yurong Hou, Yonghao Wang, and Yujie Miao
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1381, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1381, 2025
Preprint archived
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The West Antarctic Ice Sheet shows opposing snow accumulation trends: decreasing in the west and increasing in the east. Our study reveals that tropical ocean temperature shifts – Pacific cooling and Atlantic warming – drive changes in winds and moisture, boosting snowfall in the east while reducing it in the west. Using ice cores and models, we highlight how distant ocean changes shape Antarctic Ice Sheet, crucial for predicting future sea level rise.
Thomas Schwitalla, Lisa Jach, Volker Wulfmeyer, and Kirsten Warrach-Sagi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1405–1424, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1405-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1405-2025, 2025
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During recent decades, Europe has experienced increasing periods of severe drought and heatwave. To provide an overview of how land-surface conditions shape land–atmosphere (LA) coupling, the interannual LA coupling strength variability for the summer seasons of 1991–2022 is investigated by means of ERA5 data. The results clearly reflect ongoing climate change by a shift in the coupling relationships towards reinforced heating and drying by the land surface.
Bamidele Oloruntoba, Stefan Kollet, Carsten Montzka, Harry Vereecken, and Harrie-Jan Hendricks Franssen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 1659–1683, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-1659-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-1659-2025, 2025
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We studied how soil and weather data affect land model simulations over Africa. By combining soil data processed in different ways with weather data of varying time intervals, we found that weather inputs had a greater impact on water processes than soil data type. However, the way soil data were processed became crucial when paired with high-frequency weather inputs, showing that detailed weather data can improve local and regional predictions of how water moves and interacts with the land.
Pierre Friedlingstein, Michael O'Sullivan, Matthew W. Jones, Robbie M. Andrew, Judith Hauck, Peter Landschützer, Corinne Le Quéré, Hongmei Li, Ingrid T. Luijkx, Are Olsen, Glen P. Peters, Wouter Peters, Julia Pongratz, Clemens Schwingshackl, Stephen Sitch, Josep G. Canadell, Philippe Ciais, Robert B. Jackson, Simone R. Alin, Almut Arneth, Vivek Arora, Nicholas R. Bates, Meike Becker, Nicolas Bellouin, Carla F. Berghoff, Henry C. Bittig, Laurent Bopp, Patricia Cadule, Katie Campbell, Matthew A. Chamberlain, Naveen Chandra, Frédéric Chevallier, Louise P. Chini, Thomas Colligan, Jeanne Decayeux, Laique M. Djeutchouang, Xinyu Dou, Carolina Duran Rojas, Kazutaka Enyo, Wiley Evans, Amanda R. Fay, Richard A. Feely, Daniel J. Ford, Adrianna Foster, Thomas Gasser, Marion Gehlen, Thanos Gkritzalis, Giacomo Grassi, Luke Gregor, Nicolas Gruber, Özgür Gürses, Ian Harris, Matthew Hefner, Jens Heinke, George C. Hurtt, Yosuke Iida, Tatiana Ilyina, Andrew R. Jacobson, Atul K. Jain, Tereza Jarníková, Annika Jersild, Fei Jiang, Zhe Jin, Etsushi Kato, Ralph F. Keeling, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Jürgen Knauer, Jan Ivar Korsbakken, Xin Lan, Siv K. Lauvset, Nathalie Lefèvre, Zhu Liu, Junjie Liu, Lei Ma, Shamil Maksyutov, Gregg Marland, Nicolas Mayot, Patrick C. McGuire, Nicolas Metzl, Natalie M. Monacci, Eric J. Morgan, Shin-Ichiro Nakaoka, Craig Neill, Yosuke Niwa, Tobias Nützel, Lea Olivier, Tsuneo Ono, Paul I. Palmer, Denis Pierrot, Zhangcai Qin, Laure Resplandy, Alizée Roobaert, Thais M. Rosan, Christian Rödenbeck, Jörg Schwinger, T. Luke Smallman, Stephen M. Smith, Reinel Sospedra-Alfonso, Tobias Steinhoff, Qing Sun, Adrienne J. Sutton, Roland Séférian, Shintaro Takao, Hiroaki Tatebe, Hanqin Tian, Bronte Tilbrook, Olivier Torres, Etienne Tourigny, Hiroyuki Tsujino, Francesco Tubiello, Guido van der Werf, Rik Wanninkhof, Xuhui Wang, Dongxu Yang, Xiaojuan Yang, Zhen Yu, Wenping Yuan, Xu Yue, Sönke Zaehle, Ning Zeng, and Jiye Zeng
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 17, 965–1039, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-965-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-965-2025, 2025
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The Global Carbon Budget 2024 describes the methodology, main results, and datasets used to quantify the anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) and their partitioning among the atmosphere, land ecosystems, and the ocean over the historical period (1750–2024). These living datasets are updated every year to provide the highest transparency and traceability in the reporting of CO2, the key driver of climate change.
Tiago M. Ferreira, Ricardo M. Trigo, Tomás H. Gaspar, Joaquim G. Pinto, and Alexandre M. Ramos
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 609–623, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-609-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-609-2025, 2025
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We investigate the synoptic evolution associated with the occurrence of an atmospheric river that led to a 24 h record-breaking extreme precipitation event (120.3 mm) in Lisbon, Portugal, on 13 December 2022. The synoptic background allowed the formation, on 10 December, of an atmospheric river associated with a deep extratropical cyclone and with a high moisture content and an inflow of moisture, due to the warm conveyor belt, throughout its life cycle. The system made landfall on 12 December.
Tatiana Klimiuk, Patrick Ludwig, Antonio Sanchez-Benitez, Helge F. Goessling, Peter Braesicke, and Joaquim G. Pinto
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 239–255, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-239-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-239-2025, 2025
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Our study examines potential changes in heatwaves in central Europe due to global warming, using the 2019 summer heatwave as an example. By producing high-resolution storylines, we provide insights into how future heatwaves might spread, how they might persist for longer, and where stronger or weaker temperature increases may occur. This research helps us understand regional thermodynamic responses and highlights the importance of local strategies to protect communities from future heat events.
Andy Richling, Jens Grieger, and Henning W. Rust
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 361–375, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-361-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-361-2025, 2025
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The performance of weather and climate prediction systems is variable in time and space. It is of interest how this performance varies in different situations. We provide a decomposition of a skill score (a measure of forecast performance) as a tool for detailed assessment of performance variability to support model development or forecast improvement. The framework is exemplified with decadal forecasts to assess the impact of different ocean states in the North Atlantic on temperature forecast.
Florian Knutzen, Paul Averbeck, Caterina Barrasso, Laurens M. Bouwer, Barry Gardiner, José M. Grünzweig, Sabine Hänel, Karsten Haustein, Marius Rohde Johannessen, Stefan Kollet, Mortimer M. Müller, Joni-Pekka Pietikäinen, Karolina Pietras-Couffignal, Joaquim G. Pinto, Diana Rechid, Efi Rousi, Ana Russo, Laura Suarez-Gutierrez, Sarah Veit, Julian Wendler, Elena Xoplaki, and Daniel Gliksman
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 77–117, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-77-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-77-2025, 2025
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Our research, involving 22 European scientists, investigated drought and heat impacts on forests in 2018–2022. Findings reveal that climate extremes are intensifying, with central Europe being most severely impacted. The southern region showed resilience due to historical drought exposure, while northern and Alpine areas experienced emerging or minimal impacts. The study highlights the need for region-specific strategies, improved data collection, and sustainable practices to safeguard forests.
Viet Dung Nguyen, Sergiy Vorogushyn, Katrin Nissen, Lukas Brunner, and Bruno Merz
Adv. Stat. Clim. Meteorol. Oceanogr., 10, 195–216, https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-10-195-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-10-195-2024, 2024
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We present a novel stochastic weather generator conditioned on circulation patterns and regional temperature, accounting for dynamic and thermodynamic atmospheric changes. We extensively evaluate the model for the central European region. It statistically downscales precipitation for future periods, generating long, spatially and temporally consistent series. Results suggest an increase in extreme precipitation over the region, offering key benefits for hydrological impact studies.
Stephen Björn Wirth, Johanna Braun, Jens Heinke, Sebastian Ostberg, Susanne Rolinski, Sibyll Schaphoff, Fabian Stenzel, Werner von Bloh, Friedhelm Taube, and Christoph Müller
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 7889–7914, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7889-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7889-2024, 2024
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We present a new approach to modelling biological nitrogen fixation (BNF) in the Lund–Potsdam–Jena managed Land dynamic global vegetation model. While in the original approach BNF depended on actual evapotranspiration, the new approach considers soil water content and temperature, vertical root distribution, the nitrogen (N) deficit and carbon (C) costs. The new approach improved simulated BNF compared to the scientific literature and the model ability to project future C and N cycle dynamics.
Julia Moemken, Inovasita Alifdini, Alexandre M. Ramos, Alexandros Georgiadis, Aidan Brocklehurst, Lukas Braun, and Joaquim G. Pinto
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3445–3460, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3445-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3445-2024, 2024
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European windstorms regularly cause damage to natural and human-made environments, leading to high socio-economic losses. For the first time, we compare estimates of these losses using a meteorological loss index (LI) and the insurance loss (catastrophe) model of Aon Impact Forecasting. We find that LI underestimates high-impact windstorms compared to the insurance model. Nonetheless, due to its simplicity, LI is an effective index, suitable for estimating impacts and ranking storm events.
Selina M. Kiefer, Patrick Ludwig, Sebastian Lerch, Peter Knippertz, and Joaquim G. Pinto
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2955, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2955, 2024
Preprint withdrawn
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Weather forecasts 14 days in advance generally have a low skill but not always. We identify reasons thereof depending on the atmospheric flow, shown by Weather Regimes (WRs). If the WRs during the forecasts follow climatological patterns, forecast skill is increased. The forecast of a cold-wave day is better when the European Blocking WR (high pressure around the British Isles) is present a few days before a cold-wave day. These results can be used to assess the reliability of predictions.
Andrea L. Campoverde, Uwe Ehret, Patrick Ludwig, and Joaquim G. Pinto
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-134, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-134, 2024
Revised manuscript not accepted
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We looked at how well the model WRF-Hydro performed during the 2018 drought event in the River Rhine basin, even though it is typically used for floods. We used the meteorological ERA5 reanalysis dataset to simulate River Rhine’s streamflow and adjusted the model using parameters and actual discharge measurements. We focused on Lake Constance, a key part of the basin, but found issues with the model’s lake outflow simulation. By removing the lake module, we obtained more accurate results.
Felix Jäger, Jonas Schwaab, Yann Quilcaille, Michael Windisch, Jonathan Doelman, Stefan Frank, Mykola Gusti, Petr Havlik, Florian Humpenöder, Andrey Lessa Derci Augustynczik, Christoph Müller, Kanishka Balu Narayan, Ryan Sebastian Padrón, Alexander Popp, Detlef van Vuuren, Michael Wögerer, and Sonia Isabelle Seneviratne
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 1055–1071, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1055-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1055-2024, 2024
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Climate change mitigation strategies developed with socioeconomic models rely on the widespread (re)planting of trees to limit global warming below 2°. However, most of these models neglect climate-driven shifts in forest damage like fires. By assessing existing mitigation scenarios, we show the exposure of projected forestation areas to fire-promoting weather conditions. Our study highlights the problem of ignoring climate-driven shifts in forest damage and ways to address it.
Fabiola Banfi, Emanuele Bevacqua, Pauline Rivoire, Sérgio C. Oliveira, Joaquim G. Pinto, Alexandre M. Ramos, and Carlo De Michele
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2689–2704, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2689-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2689-2024, 2024
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Landslides are complex phenomena causing important impacts in vulnerable areas, and they are often triggered by rainfall. Here, we develop a new approach that uses information on the temporal clustering of rainfall, i.e. multiple events close in time, to detect landslide events and compare it with the use of classical empirical rainfall thresholds, considering as a case study the region of Lisbon, Portugal. The results could help to improve the prediction of rainfall-triggered landslides.
Aleksa Stanković, Gabriele Messori, Joaquim G. Pinto, and Rodrigo Caballero
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 821–837, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-821-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-821-2024, 2024
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The article studies extreme winds near the surface over the North Atlantic Ocean. These winds are caused by storms that pass through this region. The strongest storms that have occurred in the winters from 1950–2020 are studied in detail and compared to weaker but still strong storms. The analysis shows that the storms associated with the strongest winds are preceded by another older storm that travelled through the same region and made the conditions suitable for development of extreme winds.
Bjorn Stevens, Stefan Adami, Tariq Ali, Hartwig Anzt, Zafer Aslan, Sabine Attinger, Jaana Bäck, Johanna Baehr, Peter Bauer, Natacha Bernier, Bob Bishop, Hendryk Bockelmann, Sandrine Bony, Guy Brasseur, David N. Bresch, Sean Breyer, Gilbert Brunet, Pier Luigi Buttigieg, Junji Cao, Christelle Castet, Yafang Cheng, Ayantika Dey Choudhury, Deborah Coen, Susanne Crewell, Atish Dabholkar, Qing Dai, Francisco Doblas-Reyes, Dale Durran, Ayoub El Gaidi, Charlie Ewen, Eleftheria Exarchou, Veronika Eyring, Florencia Falkinhoff, David Farrell, Piers M. Forster, Ariane Frassoni, Claudia Frauen, Oliver Fuhrer, Shahzad Gani, Edwin Gerber, Debra Goldfarb, Jens Grieger, Nicolas Gruber, Wilco Hazeleger, Rolf Herken, Chris Hewitt, Torsten Hoefler, Huang-Hsiung Hsu, Daniela Jacob, Alexandra Jahn, Christian Jakob, Thomas Jung, Christopher Kadow, In-Sik Kang, Sarah Kang, Karthik Kashinath, Katharina Kleinen-von Königslöw, Daniel Klocke, Uta Kloenne, Milan Klöwer, Chihiro Kodama, Stefan Kollet, Tobias Kölling, Jenni Kontkanen, Steve Kopp, Michal Koran, Markku Kulmala, Hanna Lappalainen, Fakhria Latifi, Bryan Lawrence, June Yi Lee, Quentin Lejeun, Christian Lessig, Chao Li, Thomas Lippert, Jürg Luterbacher, Pekka Manninen, Jochem Marotzke, Satoshi Matsouoka, Charlotte Merchant, Peter Messmer, Gero Michel, Kristel Michielsen, Tomoki Miyakawa, Jens Müller, Ramsha Munir, Sandeep Narayanasetti, Ousmane Ndiaye, Carlos Nobre, Achim Oberg, Riko Oki, Tuba Özkan-Haller, Tim Palmer, Stan Posey, Andreas Prein, Odessa Primus, Mike Pritchard, Julie Pullen, Dian Putrasahan, Johannes Quaas, Krishnan Raghavan, Venkatachalam Ramaswamy, Markus Rapp, Florian Rauser, Markus Reichstein, Aromar Revi, Sonakshi Saluja, Masaki Satoh, Vera Schemann, Sebastian Schemm, Christina Schnadt Poberaj, Thomas Schulthess, Cath Senior, Jagadish Shukla, Manmeet Singh, Julia Slingo, Adam Sobel, Silvina Solman, Jenna Spitzer, Philip Stier, Thomas Stocker, Sarah Strock, Hang Su, Petteri Taalas, John Taylor, Susann Tegtmeier, Georg Teutsch, Adrian Tompkins, Uwe Ulbrich, Pier-Luigi Vidale, Chien-Ming Wu, Hao Xu, Najibullah Zaki, Laure Zanna, Tianjun Zhou, and Florian Ziemen
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 16, 2113–2122, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-2113-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-2113-2024, 2024
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To manage Earth in the Anthropocene, new tools, new institutions, and new forms of international cooperation will be required. Earth Virtualization Engines is proposed as an international federation of centers of excellence to empower all people to respond to the immense and urgent challenges posed by climate change.
Fabian Stenzel, Johanna Braun, Jannes Breier, Karlheinz Erb, Dieter Gerten, Jens Heinke, Sarah Matej, Sebastian Ostberg, Sibyll Schaphoff, and Wolfgang Lucht
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 3235–3258, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3235-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3235-2024, 2024
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We provide an R package to compute two biosphere integrity metrics that can be applied to simulations of vegetation growth from the dynamic global vegetation model LPJmL. The pressure metric BioCol indicates that we humans modify and extract > 20 % of the potential preindustrial natural biomass production. The ecosystems state metric EcoRisk shows a high risk of ecosystem destabilization in many regions as a result of climate change and land, water, and fertilizer use.
Liubov Poshyvailo-Strube, Niklas Wagner, Klaus Goergen, Carina Furusho-Percot, Carl Hartick, and Stefan Kollet
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 167–189, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-167-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-167-2024, 2024
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Groundwater (GW) representation is simplified in most regional climate models. Here, we introduce a unique Terrestrial Systems Modeling Platform (TSMP) dataset with an explicit representation of GW, in the context of dynamical downscaling of GCMs for climate change studies. We compare the heat events statistics of TSMP and the CORDEX ensemble. Our results show that TSMP systematically simulates fewer heat waves, and they are shorter and less intense.
Marcus Breil, Vanessa K. M. Schneider, and Joaquim G. Pinto
Biogeosciences, 21, 811–824, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-811-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-811-2024, 2024
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The general impact of afforestation on the regional climate conditions in Europe during the period 1986–2015 is investigated. For this purpose, a regional climate model simulation is performed, in which afforestation during this period is considered, and results are compared to a simulation in which this is not the case. Results show that afforestation had discernible impacts on the climate change signal in Europe, which may have mitigated the local warming trend, especially in summer in Europe.
Oliver Branch, Lisa Jach, Thomas Schwitalla, Kirsten Warrach-Sagi, and Volker Wulfmeyer
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 109–129, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-109-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-109-2024, 2024
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In the United Arab Emirates, water scarcity is reaching a crisis point, and new methods for obtaining freshwater are urgently needed. Regional climate engineering with large artificial heat islands can enhance desert precipitation by increasing cloud development. Through model simulation, we show that heat islands of 20 × 20 km or larger can potentially produce enough annual rainfall to supply thousands of people. Thus, artificial heat islands should be made a high priority for further research.
Stephen Björn Wirth, Arne Poyda, Friedhelm Taube, Britta Tietjen, Christoph Müller, Kirsten Thonicke, Anja Linstädter, Kai Behn, Sibyll Schaphoff, Werner von Bloh, and Susanne Rolinski
Biogeosciences, 21, 381–410, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-381-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-381-2024, 2024
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In dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs), the role of functional diversity in forage supply and soil organic carbon storage of grasslands is not explicitly taken into account. We introduced functional diversity into the Lund Potsdam Jena managed Land (LPJmL) DGVM using CSR theory. The new model reproduced well-known trade-offs between plant traits and can be used to quantify the role of functional diversity in climate change mitigation using different functional diversity scenarios.
Svenja Szemkus and Petra Friederichs
Adv. Stat. Clim. Meteorol. Oceanogr., 10, 29–49, https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-10-29-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-10-29-2024, 2024
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This paper uses the tail pairwise dependence matrix (TPDM) proposed by Cooley and Thibaud (2019), which we extend to the description of common extremes in two variables. We develop an extreme pattern index (EPI), a pattern-based aggregation to describe spatially extended weather extremes. Our results show that the EPI is suitable for describing heat waves. We extend the EPI to describe extremes in two variables and obtain an index to describe compound precipitation deficits and heat waves.
Lara Wallberg, Laura Suarez-Gutierrez, Daniela Matei, and Wolfgang A. Müller
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 1–14, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1-2024, 2024
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European summer temperatures are influenced by mechanisms on different timescales. We find that timescales of 5 to 10 years dominate the changes in summer temperature over large parts of the continent. Further, we find that specific processes within the North Atlantic, affecting the storage and transport of heat, cause changes in the atmosphere and extremely warm European summers. Our findings could be used for better forecasts of extremely warm European summers several years ahead.
Katja Frieler, Jan Volkholz, Stefan Lange, Jacob Schewe, Matthias Mengel, María del Rocío Rivas López, Christian Otto, Christopher P. O. Reyer, Dirk Nikolaus Karger, Johanna T. Malle, Simon Treu, Christoph Menz, Julia L. Blanchard, Cheryl S. Harrison, Colleen M. Petrik, Tyler D. Eddy, Kelly Ortega-Cisneros, Camilla Novaglio, Yannick Rousseau, Reg A. Watson, Charles Stock, Xiao Liu, Ryan Heneghan, Derek Tittensor, Olivier Maury, Matthias Büchner, Thomas Vogt, Tingting Wang, Fubao Sun, Inga J. Sauer, Johannes Koch, Inne Vanderkelen, Jonas Jägermeyr, Christoph Müller, Sam Rabin, Jochen Klar, Iliusi D. Vega del Valle, Gitta Lasslop, Sarah Chadburn, Eleanor Burke, Angela Gallego-Sala, Noah Smith, Jinfeng Chang, Stijn Hantson, Chantelle Burton, Anne Gädeke, Fang Li, Simon N. Gosling, Hannes Müller Schmied, Fred Hattermann, Jida Wang, Fangfang Yao, Thomas Hickler, Rafael Marcé, Don Pierson, Wim Thiery, Daniel Mercado-Bettín, Robert Ladwig, Ana Isabel Ayala-Zamora, Matthew Forrest, and Michel Bechtold
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 1–51, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1-2024, 2024
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Our paper provides an overview of all observational climate-related and socioeconomic forcing data used as input for the impact model evaluation and impact attribution experiments within the third round of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project. The experiments are designed to test our understanding of observed changes in natural and human systems and to quantify to what degree these changes have already been induced by climate change.
Weihang Liu, Tao Ye, Christoph Müller, Jonas Jägermeyr, James A. Franke, Haynes Stephens, and Shuo Chen
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 7203–7221, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-7203-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-7203-2023, 2023
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We develop a machine-learning-based crop model emulator with the inputs and outputs of multiple global gridded crop model ensemble simulations to capture the year-to-year variation of crop yield under future climate change. The emulator can reproduce the year-to-year variation of simulated yield given by the crop models under CO2, temperature, water, and nitrogen perturbations. Developing this emulator can provide a tool to project future climate change impact in a simple way.
Pierre Friedlingstein, Michael O'Sullivan, Matthew W. Jones, Robbie M. Andrew, Dorothee C. E. Bakker, Judith Hauck, Peter Landschützer, Corinne Le Quéré, Ingrid T. Luijkx, Glen P. Peters, Wouter Peters, Julia Pongratz, Clemens Schwingshackl, Stephen Sitch, Josep G. Canadell, Philippe Ciais, Robert B. Jackson, Simone R. Alin, Peter Anthoni, Leticia Barbero, Nicholas R. Bates, Meike Becker, Nicolas Bellouin, Bertrand Decharme, Laurent Bopp, Ida Bagus Mandhara Brasika, Patricia Cadule, Matthew A. Chamberlain, Naveen Chandra, Thi-Tuyet-Trang Chau, Frédéric Chevallier, Louise P. Chini, Margot Cronin, Xinyu Dou, Kazutaka Enyo, Wiley Evans, Stefanie Falk, Richard A. Feely, Liang Feng, Daniel J. Ford, Thomas Gasser, Josefine Ghattas, Thanos Gkritzalis, Giacomo Grassi, Luke Gregor, Nicolas Gruber, Özgür Gürses, Ian Harris, Matthew Hefner, Jens Heinke, Richard A. Houghton, George C. Hurtt, Yosuke Iida, Tatiana Ilyina, Andrew R. Jacobson, Atul Jain, Tereza Jarníková, Annika Jersild, Fei Jiang, Zhe Jin, Fortunat Joos, Etsushi Kato, Ralph F. Keeling, Daniel Kennedy, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Jürgen Knauer, Jan Ivar Korsbakken, Arne Körtzinger, Xin Lan, Nathalie Lefèvre, Hongmei Li, Junjie Liu, Zhiqiang Liu, Lei Ma, Greg Marland, Nicolas Mayot, Patrick C. McGuire, Galen A. McKinley, Gesa Meyer, Eric J. Morgan, David R. Munro, Shin-Ichiro Nakaoka, Yosuke Niwa, Kevin M. O'Brien, Are Olsen, Abdirahman M. Omar, Tsuneo Ono, Melf Paulsen, Denis Pierrot, Katie Pocock, Benjamin Poulter, Carter M. Powis, Gregor Rehder, Laure Resplandy, Eddy Robertson, Christian Rödenbeck, Thais M. Rosan, Jörg Schwinger, Roland Séférian, T. Luke Smallman, Stephen M. Smith, Reinel Sospedra-Alfonso, Qing Sun, Adrienne J. Sutton, Colm Sweeney, Shintaro Takao, Pieter P. Tans, Hanqin Tian, Bronte Tilbrook, Hiroyuki Tsujino, Francesco Tubiello, Guido R. van der Werf, Erik van Ooijen, Rik Wanninkhof, Michio Watanabe, Cathy Wimart-Rousseau, Dongxu Yang, Xiaojuan Yang, Wenping Yuan, Xu Yue, Sönke Zaehle, Jiye Zeng, and Bo Zheng
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 5301–5369, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-5301-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-5301-2023, 2023
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The Global Carbon Budget 2023 describes the methodology, main results, and data sets used to quantify the anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) and their partitioning among the atmosphere, land ecosystems, and the ocean over the historical period (1750–2023). These living datasets are updated every year to provide the highest transparency and traceability in the reporting of CO2, the key driver of climate change.
Lea Eisenstein, Benedikt Schulz, Joaquim G. Pinto, and Peter Knippertz
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 981–999, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-981-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-981-2023, 2023
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Mesoscale high-wind features within extratropical cyclones can cause immense damage. In Part 1 of this work, we introduced RAMEFI (RAndom-forest-based MEsoscale wind Feature Identification), an objective, flexible identification tool for these wind features based on a probabilistic random forest. Here, we use RAMEFI to compile a climatology of the features over 19 extended winter seasons over western and central Europe, focusing on relative occurrence, affected areas and further characteristics.
Mingyue Zhang, Eva Hartmann, Sebastian Wagner, Muralidhar Adakudlu, Niklas Luther, Christos Zerefos, and Elena Xoplaki
Clim. Past Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2023-77, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2023-77, 2023
Manuscript not accepted for further review
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A transient regional paleoclimate simulation with all external forcings (solar, orbital, volcanic, GHG, and land use), at 0.44° resolution is presented. The mean climate between Early Roman Period and pre-industrial over Eastern Mediterranean & Nile River basin is compared. The availability of this modelling data enables us to compare the simulated output with proxy records, further link the climate events with societal change and provide insights into their impact on societal and human history.
Marie Hundhausen, Hendrik Feldmann, Natalie Laube, and Joaquim G. Pinto
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2873–2893, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2873-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2873-2023, 2023
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Using a convection-permitting regional climate ensemble, the magnitude of heat waves (HWs) over Germany is projected to increase by 26 % (100 %) in a 2 °C (3 °C) warmer world. The increase is strongest in late summer, relatively homogeneous in space, and accompanied by increasing variance in HW length. Tailored parameters to climate adaptation to heat revealed dependency on major landscapes, and a nonlinear, exponential increase for parameters characterizing strong heat stress is expected.
Katrin M. Nissen, Martina Wilde, Thomas M. Kreuzer, Annika Wohlers, Bodo Damm, and Uwe Ulbrich
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2737–2748, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2737-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2737-2023, 2023
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The effect of climate change on rockfall probability in the German low mountain regions is investigated in observations and in 23 different climate scenario simulations. Under a pessimistic greenhouse gas scenario, the simulations suggest a decrease in rockfall probability. This reduction is mainly caused by a decrease in the number of freeze–thaw cycles due to higher atmospheric temperatures.
Zbigniew P. Piotrowski, Jaro Hokkanen, Daniel Caviedes-Voullieme, Olaf Stein, and Stefan Kollet
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1079, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1079, 2023
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The computer programs capable of simulation of Earth system components evolve, adapting new fundamental science concepts and more observational data on more and more powerful computer hardware. Adaptation of a large scientific program to a new type of hardware is costly. In this work we propose cheap and simple but effective strategy that enable computation using graphic processing units, based on automated program code modification. This results in better resolution and/or longer predictions.
Sara M. Vallejo-Bernal, Frederik Wolf, Niklas Boers, Dominik Traxl, Norbert Marwan, and Jürgen Kurths
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 2645–2660, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-2645-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-2645-2023, 2023
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Employing event synchronization and complex networks analysis, we reveal a cascade of heavy rainfall events, related to intense atmospheric rivers (ARs): heavy precipitation events (HPEs) in western North America (NA) that occur in the aftermath of land-falling ARs are synchronized with HPEs in central and eastern Canada with a delay of up to 12 d. Understanding the effects of ARs in the rainfall over NA will lead to better anticipating the evolution of the climate dynamics in the region.
Alberto Caldas-Alvarez, Hendrik Feldmann, Etor Lucio-Eceiza, and Joaquim G. Pinto
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 543–565, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-543-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-543-2023, 2023
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We evaluate convection-permitting modelling (CPM) simulations for the greater Alpine area to assess its added value compared to a 25 km resolution. A new method for severe precipitation detection is used, and the associated synoptic weather types are considered. Our results document the added value of CPM for precipitation representation with higher intensities, better rank correlation, better hit rates, and an improved amount and structure, but with an overestimation of the rates.
Marcus Breil, Annabell Weber, and Joaquim G. Pinto
Biogeosciences, 20, 2237–2250, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-2237-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-2237-2023, 2023
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A promising strategy for mitigating burdens of heat extremes in Europe is to replace dark coniferous forests with brighter deciduous forests. The consequence of this would be reduced absorption of solar radiation, which should reduce the intensities of heat periods. In this study, we show that deciduous forests have a certain cooling effect on heat period intensities in Europe. However, the magnitude of the temperature reduction is quite small.
Daniel Gliksman, Paul Averbeck, Nico Becker, Barry Gardiner, Valeri Goldberg, Jens Grieger, Dörthe Handorf, Karsten Haustein, Alexia Karwat, Florian Knutzen, Hilke S. Lentink, Rike Lorenz, Deborah Niermann, Joaquim G. Pinto, Ronald Queck, Astrid Ziemann, and Christian L. E. Franzke
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2171–2201, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2171-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2171-2023, 2023
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Wind and storms are a major natural hazard and can cause severe economic damage and cost human lives. Hence, it is important to gauge the potential impact of using indices, which potentially enable us to estimate likely impacts of storms or other wind events. Here, we review basic aspects of wind and storm generation and provide an extensive overview of wind impacts and available indices. This is also important to better prepare for future climate change and corresponding changes to winds.
Sebastian Ostberg, Christoph Müller, Jens Heinke, and Sibyll Schaphoff
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 3375–3406, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-3375-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-3375-2023, 2023
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We present a new toolbox for generating input datasets for terrestrial ecosystem models from diverse and partially conflicting data sources. The toolbox documents the sources and processing of data and is designed to make inconsistencies between source datasets transparent so that users can make their own decisions on how to resolve these should they not be content with our default assumptions. As an example, we use the toolbox to create input datasets at two different spatial resolutions.
Jens Heinke, Susanne Rolinski, and Christoph Müller
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 2455–2475, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-2455-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-2455-2023, 2023
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We develop a livestock module for the global vegetation model LPJmL5.0 to simulate the impact of grazing dairy cattle on carbon and nitrogen cycles in grasslands. A novelty of the approach is that it accounts for the effect of feed quality on feed uptake and feed utilization by animals. The portioning of dietary nitrogen into milk, feces, and urine shows very good agreement with estimates obtained from animal trials.
Efi Rousi, Andreas H. Fink, Lauren S. Andersen, Florian N. Becker, Goratz Beobide-Arsuaga, Marcus Breil, Giacomo Cozzi, Jens Heinke, Lisa Jach, Deborah Niermann, Dragan Petrovic, Andy Richling, Johannes Riebold, Stella Steidl, Laura Suarez-Gutierrez, Jordis S. Tradowsky, Dim Coumou, André Düsterhus, Florian Ellsäßer, Georgios Fragkoulidis, Daniel Gliksman, Dörthe Handorf, Karsten Haustein, Kai Kornhuber, Harald Kunstmann, Joaquim G. Pinto, Kirsten Warrach-Sagi, and Elena Xoplaki
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1699–1718, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1699-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1699-2023, 2023
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The objective of this study was to perform a comprehensive, multi-faceted analysis of the 2018 extreme summer in terms of heat and drought in central and northern Europe, with a particular focus on Germany. A combination of favorable large-scale conditions and locally dry soils were related with the intensity and persistence of the events. We also showed that such extremes have become more likely due to anthropogenic climate change and might occur almost every year under +2 °C of global warming.
Tobias Tesch, Stefan Kollet, and Jochen Garcke
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 2149–2166, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-2149-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-2149-2023, 2023
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A recent statistical approach for studying relations in the Earth system is to train deep learning (DL) models to predict Earth system variables given one or several others and use interpretable DL to analyze the relations learned by the models. Here, we propose to combine the approach with a theorem from causality research to ensure that the deep learning model learns causal rather than spurious relations. As an example, we apply the method to study soil-moisture–precipitation coupling.
Patrick Ludwig, Florian Ehmele, Mário J. Franca, Susanna Mohr, Alberto Caldas-Alvarez, James E. Daniell, Uwe Ehret, Hendrik Feldmann, Marie Hundhausen, Peter Knippertz, Katharina Küpfer, Michael Kunz, Bernhard Mühr, Joaquim G. Pinto, Julian Quinting, Andreas M. Schäfer, Frank Seidel, and Christina Wisotzky
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1287–1311, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1287-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1287-2023, 2023
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Heavy precipitation in July 2021 led to widespread floods in western Germany and neighboring countries. The event was among the five heaviest precipitation events of the past 70 years in Germany, and the river discharges exceeded by far the statistical 100-year return values. Simulations of the event under future climate conditions revealed a strong and non-linear effect on flood peaks: for +2 K global warming, an 18 % increase in rainfall led to a 39 % increase of the flood peak in the Ahr river.
Bibi S. Naz, Wendy Sharples, Yueling Ma, Klaus Goergen, and Stefan Kollet
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 1617–1639, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-1617-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-1617-2023, 2023
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It is challenging to apply a high-resolution integrated land surface and groundwater model over large spatial scales. In this paper, we demonstrate the application of such a model over a pan-European domain at 3 km resolution and perform an extensive evaluation of simulated water states and fluxes by comparing with in situ and satellite data. This study can serve as a benchmark and baseline for future studies of climate change impact projections and for hydrological forecasting.
Marcus Breil, Felix Krawczyk, and Joaquim G. Pinto
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 243–253, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-243-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-243-2023, 2023
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We provide evidence that biogeophysical effects of afforestation can counteract the favorable biogeochemical climate effect of reduced CO2 concentrations. By changing the land surface characteristics, afforestation reduces vegetation surface temperatures, resulting in a reduced outgoing longwave radiation in summer, although CO2 concentrations are reduced. Since forests additionally absorb a lot of solar radiation due to their dark surfaces, afforestation has a total warming effect.
Susanna Mohr, Uwe Ehret, Michael Kunz, Patrick Ludwig, Alberto Caldas-Alvarez, James E. Daniell, Florian Ehmele, Hendrik Feldmann, Mário J. Franca, Christian Gattke, Marie Hundhausen, Peter Knippertz, Katharina Küpfer, Bernhard Mühr, Joaquim G. Pinto, Julian Quinting, Andreas M. Schäfer, Marc Scheibel, Frank Seidel, and Christina Wisotzky
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 525–551, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-525-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-525-2023, 2023
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The flood event in July 2021 was one of the most severe disasters in Europe in the last half century. The objective of this two-part study is a multi-disciplinary assessment that examines the complex process interactions in different compartments, from meteorology to hydrological conditions to hydro-morphological processes to impacts on assets and environment. In addition, we address the question of what measures are possible to generate added value to early response management.
Mohamed Saadi, Carina Furusho-Percot, Alexandre Belleflamme, Ju-Yu Chen, Silke Trömel, and Stefan Kollet
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 159–177, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-159-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-159-2023, 2023
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On 14 July 2021, heavy rainfall fell over central Europe, causing considerable damage and human fatalities. We analyzed how accurate our estimates of rainfall and peak flow were for these flooding events in western Germany. We found that the rainfall estimates from radar measurements were improved by including polarimetric variables and their vertical gradients. Peak flow estimates were highly uncertain due to uncertainties in hydrological model parameters and rainfall measurements.
Alberto Caldas-Alvarez, Markus Augenstein, Georgy Ayzel, Klemens Barfus, Ribu Cherian, Lisa Dillenardt, Felix Fauer, Hendrik Feldmann, Maik Heistermann, Alexia Karwat, Frank Kaspar, Heidi Kreibich, Etor Emanuel Lucio-Eceiza, Edmund P. Meredith, Susanna Mohr, Deborah Niermann, Stephan Pfahl, Florian Ruff, Henning W. Rust, Lukas Schoppa, Thomas Schwitalla, Stella Steidl, Annegret H. Thieken, Jordis S. Tradowsky, Volker Wulfmeyer, and Johannes Quaas
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3701–3724, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3701-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3701-2022, 2022
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In a warming climate, extreme precipitation events are becoming more frequent. To advance our knowledge on such phenomena, we present a multidisciplinary analysis of a selected case study that took place on 29 June 2017 in the Berlin metropolitan area. Our analysis provides evidence of the extremeness of the case from the atmospheric and the impacts perspectives as well as new insights on the physical mechanisms of the event at the meteorological and climate scales.
Ruksana H. Rimi, Karsten Haustein, Emily J. Barbour, Sarah N. Sparrow, Sihan Li, David C. H. Wallom, and Myles R. Allen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 5737–5756, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-5737-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-5737-2022, 2022
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Extreme rainfall events are major concerns in Bangladesh. Heavy downpours can cause flash floods and damage nearly harvestable crops in pre-monsoon season. While in monsoon season, the impacts can range from widespread agricultural loss, huge property damage, to loss of lives and livelihoods. This paper assesses the role of anthropogenic climate change drivers in changing risks of extreme rainfall events during pre-monsoon and monsoon seasons at local sub-regional-scale within Bangladesh.
Kristine Karstens, Benjamin Leon Bodirsky, Jan Philipp Dietrich, Marta Dondini, Jens Heinke, Matthias Kuhnert, Christoph Müller, Susanne Rolinski, Pete Smith, Isabelle Weindl, Hermann Lotze-Campen, and Alexander Popp
Biogeosciences, 19, 5125–5149, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-5125-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-5125-2022, 2022
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Soil organic carbon (SOC) has been depleted by anthropogenic land cover change and agricultural management. While SOC models often simulate detailed biochemical processes, the management decisions are still little investigated at the global scale. We estimate that soils have lost around 26 GtC relative to a counterfactual natural state in 1975. Yet, since 1975, SOC has been increasing again by 4 GtC due to a higher productivity, recycling of crop residues and manure, and no-tillage practices.
Lea Eisenstein, Benedikt Schulz, Ghulam A. Qadir, Joaquim G. Pinto, and Peter Knippertz
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 1157–1182, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1157-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1157-2022, 2022
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Mesoscale high-wind features within extratropical cyclones can cause immense damage. Here, we present RAMEFI, a novel approach to objectively identify the wind features based on a probabilistic random forest. RAMEFI enables a wide range of applications such as probabilistic predictions for the occurrence or a multi-decadal climatology of these features, which will be the focus of Part 2 of the study, with the goal of improving wind and, specifically, wind gust forecasts in the long run.
Katrin M. Nissen, Stefan Rupp, Thomas M. Kreuzer, Björn Guse, Bodo Damm, and Uwe Ulbrich
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2117–2130, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2117-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2117-2022, 2022
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A statistical model is introduced which quantifies the influence of individual potential triggering factors and their interactions on rockfall probability in central Europe. The most important factor is daily precipitation, which is most effective if sub-surface moisture levels are high. Freeze–thaw cycles in the preceding days can further increase the rockfall hazard. The model can be applied to climate simulations in order to investigate the effect of climate change on rockfall probability.
Michael Dietze, Rainer Bell, Ugur Ozturk, Kristen L. Cook, Christoff Andermann, Alexander R. Beer, Bodo Damm, Ana Lucia, Felix S. Fauer, Katrin M. Nissen, Tobias Sieg, and Annegret H. Thieken
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1845–1856, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1845-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1845-2022, 2022
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The flood that hit Europe in July 2021, specifically the Eifel, Germany, was more than a lot of fast-flowing water. The heavy rain that fell during the 3 d before also caused the slope to fail, recruited tree trunks that clogged bridges, and routed debris across the landscape. Especially in the upper parts of the catchments the flood was able to gain momentum. Here, we discuss how different landscape elements interacted and highlight the challenges of holistic future flood anticipation.
Julian Steinheuer, Carola Detring, Frank Beyrich, Ulrich Löhnert, Petra Friederichs, and Stephanie Fiedler
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 15, 3243–3260, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-15-3243-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-15-3243-2022, 2022
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Doppler wind lidars (DWLs) allow the determination of wind profiles with high vertical resolution and thus provide an alternative to meteorological towers. We address the question of whether wind gusts can be derived since they are short-lived phenomena. Therefore, we compare different DWL configurations and develop a new method applicable to all of them. A fast continuous scanning mode that completes a full observation cycle within 3.4 s is found to be the best-performing configuration.
Assaf Hochman, Francesco Marra, Gabriele Messori, Joaquim G. Pinto, Shira Raveh-Rubin, Yizhak Yosef, and Georgios Zittis
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 749–777, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-749-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-749-2022, 2022
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Gaining a complete understanding of extreme weather, from its physical drivers to its impacts on society, is important in supporting future risk reduction and adaptation measures. Here, we provide a review of the available scientific literature, knowledge gaps and key open questions in the study of extreme weather events over the vulnerable eastern Mediterranean region.
Jacopo Riboldi, Efi Rousi, Fabio D'Andrea, Gwendal Rivière, and François Lott
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 449–469, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-449-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-449-2022, 2022
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A revisited space and time spectral decomposition allows us to determine which harmonics dominate the upper-tropospheric flow evolution over a given time period as well as their propagation. This approach is used to identify Rossby wave patterns with a circumglobal extent, affecting weather evolution over different Northern Hemisphere regions. The results cast light on the processes originating and supporting these wave patterns, advocating at the same time for the usefulness of the technique.
Lisa-Ann Kautz, Olivia Martius, Stephan Pfahl, Joaquim G. Pinto, Alexandre M. Ramos, Pedro M. Sousa, and Tim Woollings
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 305–336, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-305-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-305-2022, 2022
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Atmospheric blocking is associated with stationary, self-sustaining and long-lasting high-pressure systems. They can cause or at least influence surface weather extremes, such as heat waves, cold spells, heavy precipitation events, droughts or wind extremes. The location of the blocking determines where and what type of extreme event will occur. These relationships are also important for weather prediction and may change due to global warming.
Animesh K. Gain, Yves Bühler, Pascal Haegeli, Daniela Molinari, Mario Parise, David J. Peres, Joaquim G. Pinto, Kai Schröter, Ricardo M. Trigo, María Carmen Llasat, and Heidi Kreibich
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 985–993, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-985-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-985-2022, 2022
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To mark the 20th anniversary of Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences (NHESS), an interdisciplinary and international journal dedicated to the public discussion and open-access publication of high-quality studies and original research on natural hazards and their consequences, we highlight 11 key publications covering major subject areas of NHESS that stood out within the past 20 years.
Florian Ehmele, Lisa-Ann Kautz, Hendrik Feldmann, Yi He, Martin Kadlec, Fanni D. Kelemen, Hilke S. Lentink, Patrick Ludwig, Desmond Manful, and Joaquim G. Pinto
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 677–692, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-677-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-677-2022, 2022
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For various applications, it is crucial to have profound knowledge of the frequency, severity, and risk of extreme flood events. Such events are characterized by very long return periods which observations can not cover. We use a large ensemble of regional climate model simulations as input for a hydrological model. Precipitation data were post-processed to reduce systematic errors. The representation of precipitation and discharge is improved, and estimates of long return periods become robust.
Vera Porwollik, Susanne Rolinski, Jens Heinke, Werner von Bloh, Sibyll Schaphoff, and Christoph Müller
Biogeosciences, 19, 957–977, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-957-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-957-2022, 2022
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The study assesses impacts of grass cover crop cultivation on cropland during main-crop off-season periods applying the global vegetation model LPJmL (V.5.0-tillage-cc). Compared to simulated bare-soil fallowing practices, cover crops led to increased soil carbon content and reduced nitrogen leaching rates on the majority of global cropland. Yield responses of main crops following cover crops vary with location, duration of altered management, crop type, water regime, and tillage practice.
Giannis Sofiadis, Eleni Katragkou, Edouard L. Davin, Diana Rechid, Nathalie de Noblet-Ducoudre, Marcus Breil, Rita M. Cardoso, Peter Hoffmann, Lisa Jach, Ronny Meier, Priscilla A. Mooney, Pedro M. M. Soares, Susanna Strada, Merja H. Tölle, and Kirsten Warrach Sagi
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 595–616, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-595-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-595-2022, 2022
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Afforestation is currently promoted as a greenhouse gas mitigation strategy. In our study, we examine the differences in soil temperature and moisture between grounds covered either by forests or grass. The main conclusion emerged is that forest-covered grounds are cooler but drier than open lands in summer. Therefore, afforestation disrupts the seasonal cycle of soil temperature, which in turn could trigger changes in crucial chemical processes such as soil carbon sequestration.
Lisa Jach, Thomas Schwitalla, Oliver Branch, Kirsten Warrach-Sagi, and Volker Wulfmeyer
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 109–132, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-109-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-109-2022, 2022
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The land surface can influence the occurrence of local rainfall through different feedback mechanisms. In Europe, this happens most frequently in summer. Here, we examine how differences in atmospheric temperature and moisture change where and how often the land surface can influence rainfall. The results show that the differences barely move the region of strong surface influence over Scandinavia and eastern Europe, but they can change the frequency of coupling events.
Kim H. Stadelmaier, Patrick Ludwig, Pascal Bertran, Pierre Antoine, Xiaoxu Shi, Gerrit Lohmann, and Joaquim G. Pinto
Clim. Past, 17, 2559–2576, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-2559-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-2559-2021, 2021
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We use regional climate simulations for the Last Glacial Maximum to reconstruct permafrost and to identify areas of thermal contraction cracking of the ground in western Europe. We find ground cracking, a precondition for the development of permafrost proxies, south of the probable permafrost border, implying that permafrost was not the limiting factor for proxy development. A good agreement with permafrost and climate proxy data is achieved when easterly winds are modelled more frequently.
Sebastian Buschow and Petra Friederichs
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 6765–6780, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-6765-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-6765-2021, 2021
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When insects fill the lower kilometers of the atmosphere, they get caught in the convergent parts of the wind field. Their concentration visualizes the otherwise invisible circulation on radar images. This study shows how clear-air radar data can be compared to simulated wind fields in terms of scale, anisotropy, and direction. Despite known difficulties with simulating these near-surface wind systems, we find decent agreement between a long-term simulation and the German radar mosaic.
Tobias Herzfeld, Jens Heinke, Susanne Rolinski, and Christoph Müller
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 1037–1055, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1037-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1037-2021, 2021
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Soil organic carbon sequestration on cropland has been proposed as a climate change mitigation strategy. We simulate different agricultural management practices under climate change scenarios using a global biophysical model. We find that at the global aggregated level, agricultural management practices are not capable of enhancing total carbon storage in the soil, yet for some climate regions, we find that there is potential to enhance the carbon content in cropland soils.
Bernd Schalge, Gabriele Baroni, Barbara Haese, Daniel Erdal, Gernot Geppert, Pablo Saavedra, Vincent Haefliger, Harry Vereecken, Sabine Attinger, Harald Kunstmann, Olaf A. Cirpka, Felix Ament, Stefan Kollet, Insa Neuweiler, Harrie-Jan Hendricks Franssen, and Clemens Simmer
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 13, 4437–4464, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-4437-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-4437-2021, 2021
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In this study, a 9-year simulation of complete model output of a coupled atmosphere–land-surface–subsurface model on the catchment scale is discussed. We used the Neckar catchment in SW Germany as the basis of this simulation. Since the dataset includes the full model output, it is not only possible to investigate model behavior and interactions between the component models but also use it as a virtual truth for comparison of, for example, data assimilation experiments.
Silje Lund Sørland, Roman Brogli, Praveen Kumar Pothapakula, Emmanuele Russo, Jonas Van de Walle, Bodo Ahrens, Ivonne Anders, Edoardo Bucchignani, Edouard L. Davin, Marie-Estelle Demory, Alessandro Dosio, Hendrik Feldmann, Barbara Früh, Beate Geyer, Klaus Keuler, Donghyun Lee, Delei Li, Nicole P. M. van Lipzig, Seung-Ki Min, Hans-Jürgen Panitz, Burkhardt Rockel, Christoph Schär, Christian Steger, and Wim Thiery
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 5125–5154, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-5125-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-5125-2021, 2021
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We review the contribution from the CLM-Community to regional climate projections following the CORDEX framework over Europe, South Asia, East Asia, Australasia, and Africa. How the model configuration, horizontal and vertical resolutions, and choice of driving data influence the model results for the five domains is assessed, with the purpose of aiding the planning and design of regional climate simulations in the future.
Folmer Krikken, Flavio Lehner, Karsten Haustein, Igor Drobyshev, and Geert Jan van Oldenborgh
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2169–2179, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2169-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2169-2021, 2021
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In this study, we analyse the role of climate change in the forest fires that raged through large parts of Sweden in the summer of 2018 from a meteorological perspective. This is done by studying observationally constrained data and multiple climate models. We find a small reduced probability of such events, based on reanalyses, but a small increased probability due to global warming up to now and a more robust increase in the risk for such events in the future, based on climate models.
Boris Sakschewski, Werner von Bloh, Markus Drüke, Anna Amelia Sörensson, Romina Ruscica, Fanny Langerwisch, Maik Billing, Sarah Bereswill, Marina Hirota, Rafael Silva Oliveira, Jens Heinke, and Kirsten Thonicke
Biogeosciences, 18, 4091–4116, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-4091-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-4091-2021, 2021
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This study shows how local adaptations of tree roots across tropical and sub-tropical South America explain patterns of biome distribution, productivity and evapotranspiration on this continent. By allowing for high diversity of tree rooting strategies in a dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM), we are able to mechanistically explain patterns of mean rooting depth and the effects on ecosystem functions. The approach can advance DGVMs and Earth system models.
Alexander Pasternack, Jens Grieger, Henning W. Rust, and Uwe Ulbrich
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 4335–4355, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-4335-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-4335-2021, 2021
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Decadal climate ensemble forecasts are increasingly being used to guide adaptation measures. To ensure the applicability of these probabilistic predictions, inherent systematic errors of the prediction system must be adjusted. Since it is not clear which statistical model is optimal for this purpose, we propose a recalibration strategy with a systematic model selection based on non-homogeneous boosting for identifying the most relevant features for both ensemble mean and ensemble spread.
Yueling Ma, Carsten Montzka, Bagher Bayat, and Stefan Kollet
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 3555–3575, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-3555-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-3555-2021, 2021
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This study utilized spatiotemporally continuous precipitation anomaly (pra) and water table depth anomaly (wtda) data from integrated hydrologic simulation results over Europe in combination with Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks to capture the time-varying and time-lagged relationship between pra and wtda in order to obtain reliable models to estimate wtda at the individual pixel level.
Cited articles
Aalbers, E. E., van Meijgaard, E., Lenderink, G., de Vries, H., and van den Hurk, B. J. J. M.: The 2018 west-central European drought projected in a warmer climate: how much drier can it get?, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1921–1946, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1921-2023, 2023.
Allen, C. D., Breshears, D. D., and McDowell, N. G.: On underestimation of global vulnerability to tree mortality and forest die-off from hotter drought in the Anthropocene, Ecosphere, 6, 1–55, 2015.
Augenstein, M., Mohr, S., and Kunz, M.: Influence of the North Atlantic Oscillation on annual spatio-temporal lightning clusters in western and central Europe, EGUsphere [preprint], https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2804, 2024.
Barriopedro, D., Fischer, E. M., Luterbacher, J., Trigo, R. M., and García-Herrera, R.: The hot summer of 2010: redrawing the temperature record map of Europe, Science, 332, 220–224, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1201224, 2011.
Bastos, A., Ciais, P., Friedlingstein, P., Sitch, S., Pongratz, J., Fan, L., Wigneron, J. P., Weber, U., Reichstein, M., Fu, Z., Anthoni, P., Arneth, A., Haverd, V., Jain, A. K., Joetzjer, E., Knauer, J., Lienert, S., Loughran, T., McGuire, P. C., Tian, H., Viovy, N., and Zaehle, S.: Direct and seasonal legacy effects of the 2018 heat wave and drought on European ecosystem productivity, Sci. Adv., 6, eaba2724, https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aba2724, 2020.
Bastos, A., Orth, R., Reichstein, M., Ciais, P., Viovy, N., Zaehle, S., Anthoni, P., Arneth, A., Gentine, P., Joetzjer, E., Lienert, S., Loughran, T., McGuire, P. C., O, S., Pongratz, J., and Sitch, S.: Vulnerability of European ecosystems to two compound dry and hot summers in 2018 and 2019, Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 1015–1035, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1015-2021, 2021.
Beillouin, D., Schauberger, B., Bastos, A., Ciais, P., and Makowski, D.: Impact of extreme weather conditions on European crop production in 2018, Philos. T. R. Soc. B, 375, 20190510, https://doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2019.0510, 2020.
Bender, J.: Zur Ermittlung von hydrologischen Bemessungsgrößen an Flussmündungen mit Verfahren der multivariaten Statistik. Mitteilung des Forschungsinstituts Wasser und Umwelt der Universität Siegen, 9, http://dokumentix.ub.uni-siegen.de/opus/volltexte/2015/965/pdf/Dissertation_Jens_Bender.pdf (last access: 19 October 2024), 2015.
Bevacqua, E., Maraun, D., Hobæk Haff, I., Widmann, M., and Vrac, M.: Multivariate statistical modelling of compound events via pair-copula constructions: analysis of floods in Ravenna (Italy), Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2701–2723, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-2701-2017, 2017.
Bevacqua, E., De Michele, C., Manning, C., Couasnon, A., Ribeiro, A. F. S., Ramos, A. M., Vignotto, E., Bastos, A., Blesić, S., Durante, F., Hillier, J., Oliveira, S. C., Pinto, J. G., Ragno, E., Rivoire, P., Saunders, K., van der Wiel, K., Wu, W., Zhang, T., and Zscheischler, J.: Guidelines for studying diverse types of compound weather and climate events, Earth's Future, 9, e2021EF002340, https://doi.org/10.1029/2021EF002340, 2021.
Bevacqua, E., Suarez-Gutierrez, L., Jézéquel, A., Lehner, F., Vrac, M., Yiou, P., and Zscheischler J.: Advancing research on compound weather and climate events via large ensemble model simulations, Nat. Commun., 14, 2145, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-023-37847-5, 2023.
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Brakkee, E., van Huijgevoort, M. H. J., and Bartholomeus, R. P.: Improved understanding of regional groundwater drought development through time series modelling: the 2018–2019 drought in the Netherlands, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 551–569, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-551-2022, 2022.
Brauns, B., Cuba, D., Bloomfield, J. P., Hannah, D. M., Jackson, C., Marchant, B. P., Heudorfer, B., Van Loon, A. F., Bessière, H., Thunholm, B., and Schubert, G.: The Groundwater Drought Initiative (GDI): Analysing and understanding groundwater drought across Europe, Proc. IAHS, 383, 297–305, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-383-297-2020, 2020.
Brun, P., Psomas, A., Ginzler, C., Thuiller, W., Zappa, M., and Zimmermann, N. E.: Large-scale early-wilting response of Central European forests to the 2018 extreme drought, Glob. Change Biol., 26, 7021–7035, https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.15360, 2020.
Büchner, M. and Reyer, C.: ISIMIP3a atmospheric composition input data (v1.2), ISIMIP Repository [data set], https://doi.org/10.48364/ISIMIP.664235.2, 2022.
Buras, A., Rammig, A., and Zang, C. S.: Quantifying impacts of the 2018 drought on European ecosystems in comparison to 2003, Biogeosciences, 17, 1655–1672, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-1655-2020, 2020.
Caldeira, M. C., Lecomte, X., David, T. S., Pinto, J. G., Bugalho, M. N., and Werner, C.: Synergy of extreme drought and plant invasion reduce ecosystem functioning and resilience, Sci. Rep., 5,15110, https://doi.org/10.1038/srep15110, 2015
Carnicer, J., Alegria, A., Giannakopoulos, C., Di Giuseppe, F., Karali, A., Koutsias, N., Lionello, P., Parrington, M., and Vitolo, C.: Global warming is shifting the relationships between fire weather and realized fire-induced CO2 emissions in Europe, Sci. Rep., 12, 10365, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-022-14480-8, 2022.
Cerlini, P. B., Silvestri, L., Meniconi, S., and Brunone, B.: Simulation of the water table elevation in shallow unconfined aquifers by means of the ERA5 soil moisture dataset: The Umbria region case study, Earth Interact., 25, 15–32, https://doi.org/10.1175/EI-D-20-0011.1, 2021.
Conradt, T., Engelhardt, H., Menz, C., Vicente-Serrano, S. M., Alvarez Farizo, B., Peña-Angulo, D., Domínguez-Castro, F., Eklundh, L., Jin, H., Boincean, B., Murphy, C., and López-Moreno, J. I.: Cross-sectoral impacts of the 2018–2019 Central European drought and climate resilience in the German part of the Elbe River basin, Reg. Environ. Change, 23, 32, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-023-02032-3, 2023.
Cooley, D. and Thibaud, E.: Decompositions of dependence for high-dimensional extremes, Biometrika, 106, 587–604, https://doi.org/10.1093/biomet/asz028, 2019.
Cornes, R. C., van der Schrier, G., van den Besselaar, E. J. M., and Jones, P. D.: An Ensemble Version of the E-OBS Temperature and Precipitation Data Sets, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 123, 9391–9409, https://doi.org/10.1029/2017JD028200, 2018.
Cucchi, M., Weedon, G. P., Amici, A., Bellouin, N., Lange, S., Müller Schmied, H., Hersbach, H., and Buontempo, C.: WFDE5: bias-adjusted ERA5 reanalysis data for impact studies, Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 12, 2097–2120, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-2097-2020, 2020.
Di Capua, G., Sparrow, S., Kornhuber, K., Rousi, E., Osprey, S., Wallom, D., van den Hurk, B., and Coumou, D.: Drivers behind the summer 2010 wave train leading to Russian heatwave and Pakistan flooding, npj Clim. Atmos. Sci., 4, 55, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-021-00211-9, 2021.
D'Agostino, V.: Drought in Europe summer 2018: Crisis management in an orderly chaos, Farm-Europe, https://www.farm-europe.eu/blog-en/drought-in-europe-summer-2018-crisis-management-in-an-orderly-chaos/ (last access: 19 October 2024), 2018.
D'Amato, J., Hantz, D., Guerin, A., Jaboyedoff, M., Baillet, L., and Mariscal, A.: Influence of meteorological factors on rockfall occurrence in a middle mountain limestone cliff, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 719–735, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-719-2016, 2016.
Dacre, H. F., Hawcroft, M. K., Stringer, M. A., and Hodges, K. I.: An extratropical cyclone database: A tool for illustrating cyclone structure and evolution characteristics, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 93, 1497–1502, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00164.1, 2012.
de Brito, M., Kuhlicke, C., and Marx, A.: Near-real-time drought impact assessment: a text mining approach on the 2018/19 drought in Germany, Environ. Res. Lett., 15, 1040a9, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aba4ca, 2020.
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Short summary
Europe frequently experiences compound events, with major impacts. We investigate these events’ interactions, characteristics, and changes over time, focusing on socio-economic impacts in Germany and central Europe. Highlighting 2018’s extreme events, this study reveals impacts on water, agriculture, and forests and stresses the need for impact-focused definitions and better future risk quantification to support adaptation planning.
Europe frequently experiences compound events, with major impacts. We investigate these events’...
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