Articles | Volume 24, issue 7
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2359-2024
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2359-2024
Research article
 | 
15 Jul 2024
Research article |  | 15 Jul 2024

Probabilistic assessment of postfire debris-flow inundation in response to forecast rainfall

Alexander B. Prescott, Luke A. McGuire, Kwang-Sung Jun, Katherine R. Barnhart, and Nina S. Oakley

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Cited articles

Aaron, J., McDougall, S., and Nolde, N.: Two methodologies to calibrate landslide runout models, Landslides, 16, 907–920, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10346-018-1116-8, 2019. 
Aaron, J., McDougall, S., Kowalski, J., Nolde, N., and Mitchell, A.: Probabilistic prediction of rock avalanche runout using a numerical model, Landslides, 19, 2853–2869, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10346-022-01939-y, 2022. 
Alessio, P., Dunne, T., and Morell, K.: Post-wildfire generation of debris-flow slurry by rill erosion on colluvial hillslopes, J. Geophys. Res.-Earth, 126, e2021JF006108, https://doi.org/10.1029/2021JF006108, 2021. 
Barnhart, K. R., Jones, R. P., George, D. L., McArdell, B. W., Rengers, F. K., Staley, D. M., and Kean, J. W.: Multi-model comparison of computed debris flow runout for the 9 January 2018 Montecito, California post-wildfire event, J. Geophys. Res.-Earth, 126, e2021JF006245, https://doi.org/10.1029/2021JF006245, 2021. 
Barnhart, K. R., Romero, V. Y., and Clifford, K. R.: User needs assessment for postfire debris-flow inundation hazard products, U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Rep. 2023–1025, 25 pp., https://doi.org/10.3133/ofr20231025, 2023. 
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Short summary
Fire can dramatically increase the risk of debris flows to downstream communities with little warning, but hazard assessments have not traditionally included estimates of inundation. We unify models developed by the scientific community to create probabilistic estimates of inundation area in response to rainfall at forecast lead times (≥ 24 h) needed for decision-making. This work takes an initial step toward a near-real-time postfire debris-flow inundation hazard assessment product.
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