Articles | Volume 24, issue 7
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2359-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2359-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
15 Jul 2024
Research article |
| 15 Jul 2024
| 15 Jul 2024
Probabilistic assessment of postfire debris-flow inundation in response to forecast rainfall
Alexander B. Prescott
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Department of Geosciences, The University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ, USA
Luke A. McGuire
Department of Geosciences, The University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ, USA
Kwang-Sung Jun
Department of Computer Science, The University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ, USA
Katherine R. Barnhart
U.S. Geological Survey, Denver, CO, USA
Nina S. Oakley
California Geological Survey Burned Watershed Geohazards Program, Sacramento, CA, USA
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Alexander B. Prescott, Jon D. Pelletier, Satya Chataut, and Sriram Ananthanarayan
Earth Surf. Dynam., 13, 239–256, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-13-239-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-13-239-2025, 2025
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Many Earth surface processes are controlled by the spatial pattern of surface water flow. We review commonly used methods for predicting such spatial patterns in digital landform models and document the pros and cons of commonly used methods. We propose a new method that is designed to minimize those limitations and show that it works well in a variety of test cases.
Elaine T. Spiller, Luke A. McGuire, Palak Patel, Abani Patra, and E. Bruce Pitman
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.22541/essoar.173687440.07138680/v1, https://doi.org/10.22541/essoar.173687440.07138680/v1, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences (NHESS).
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Fire in steep landscapes increases the potential for debris flows that can develop during intense rainstorms. To explore possible debris flow hazards, we utilize a computational model of the physical processes of debris flow initiation and runout. Such process-based models are computationally intensive and of limited use in rapid hazard assessments. Thus we build statistical surrogate of these physical models to examine how inundation footprints vary with rainfall intensity and time since fire.
Alexander B. Prescott, Jon D. Pelletier, Satya Chataut, and Sriram Ananthanarayan
Earth Surf. Dynam., 13, 239–256, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-13-239-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-13-239-2025, 2025
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Many Earth surface processes are controlled by the spatial pattern of surface water flow. We review commonly used methods for predicting such spatial patterns in digital landform models and document the pros and cons of commonly used methods. We propose a new method that is designed to minimize those limitations and show that it works well in a variety of test cases.
Jon D. Pelletier, Robert G. Hayes, Olivia Hoch, Brendan Fenerty, and Luke A. McGuire
Earth Surf. Dynam., 13, 219–238, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-13-219-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-13-219-2025, 2025
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We demonstrate that landscapes with more planar initial conditions tend to have lower mean junction angles. Geomorphic processes on alluvial piedmonts result in especially planar initial conditions, consistent with a correlation between junction angles and the presence/absence of Late Cenozoic alluvial deposits and the constraint imposed by the intersection of planar approximations to the topography upslope from tributary junctions. We caution against using junction angles to infer paleoclimate.
Jonathan Perkins, Nina S. Oakley, Brian D. Collins, Skye C. Corbett, and W. Paul Burgess
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1037–1056, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1037-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1037-2025, 2025
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Rainfall-induced landslides result in deaths and economic losses annually across the globe. However, it is unclear how storm severity relates to landslide severity across large regions. Here we develop a method to dynamically map landslide-affected areas, and we compare this to meteorological estimates of storm severity. We find that preconditioning by earlier storms and the location of rainfall bursts, rather than atmospheric storm strength, dictate landslide magnitude and pattern.
Nicole M. Gasparini, Adam M. Forte, and Katherine R. Barnhart
Earth Surf. Dynam., 12, 1227–1242, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-1227-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-1227-2024, 2024
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The time it takes for a landscape to adjust to new environmental conditions is critical for understanding the impacts of past and future environmental changes. We used different computational models and methods and found that predicted times for a landscape to reach a stable condition vary greatly. Our results illustrate that reporting how timescales are measured is important. Modelers should ensure that the measurement technique addresses the question.
Tao Liu, Luke A. McGuire, Ann M. Youberg, Charles J. Abolt, and Adam L. Atchley
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-151, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-151, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
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After a fire, soil infiltration decreases, increasing flash flood risks, worsened by intense rainfall from climate change. Using data from a burned watershed in Arizona and a hydrological model, we examined postfire soil changes under medium and high emissions scenarios. Results showed soil infiltration increased sixfold from the first to third postfire year. Both scenarios suggest that rainfall intensification will extend high flood risks after fires by late century.
Francis K. Rengers, Samuel Bower, Andrew Knapp, Jason W. Kean, Danielle W. vonLembke, Matthew A. Thomas, Jaime Kostelnik, Katherine R. Barnhart, Matthew Bethel, Joseph E. Gartner, Madeline Hille, Dennis M. Staley, Justin K. Anderson, Elizabeth K. Roberts, Stephen B. DeLong, Belize Lane, Paxton Ridgway, and Brendan P. Murphy
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2093–2114, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2093-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2093-2024, 2024
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Every year the U.S. Geological Survey produces 50–100 postfire debris-flow hazard assessments using models for debris-flow likelihood and volume. To refine these models they must be tested with datasets that clearly document rainfall, debris-flow response, and debris-flow volume. These datasets are difficult to obtain, but this study developed and analyzed a postfire dataset with more than 100 postfire storm responses over a 2-year period. We also proposed ways to improve these models.
Katherine R. Barnhart, Christopher R. Miller, Francis K. Rengers, and Jason W. Kean
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1459–1483, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1459-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1459-2024, 2024
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Debris flows are a type of fast-moving landslide that start from shallow landslides or during intense rain. Infrastructure located downstream of watersheds susceptible to debris flows may be damaged should a debris flow reach them. We present and evaluate an approach to forecast building damage caused by debris flows. We test three alternative models for simulating the motion of debris flows and find that only one can forecast the correct number and spatial pattern of damaged buildings.
Luke A. McGuire, Francis K. Rengers, Ann M. Youberg, Alexander N. Gorr, Olivia J. Hoch, Rebecca Beers, and Ryan Porter
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1357–1379, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1357-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1357-2024, 2024
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Runoff and erosion increase after fire, leading to a greater likelihood of floods and debris flows. We monitored debris flow activity following a fire in western New Mexico, USA, and observed 16 debris flows over a <2-year monitoring period. Rainstorms with recurrence intervals of approximately 1 year were sufficient to initiate debris flows. All debris flows initiated during the first several months following the fire, indicating a rapid decrease in debris flow susceptibility over time.
Luke A. McGuire, Scott W. McCoy, Odin Marc, William Struble, and Katherine R. Barnhart
Earth Surf. Dynam., 11, 1117–1143, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-11-1117-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-11-1117-2023, 2023
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Debris flows are mixtures of mud and rocks that can travel at high speeds across steep landscapes. Here, we propose a new model to describe how landscapes are shaped by debris flow erosion over long timescales. Model results demonstrate that the shapes of channel profiles are sensitive to uplift rate, meaning that it may be possible to use topographic data from steep channel networks to infer how erosion rates vary across a landscape.
Francis K. Rengers, Luke A. McGuire, Katherine R. Barnhart, Ann M. Youberg, Daniel Cadol, Alexander N. Gorr, Olivia J. Hoch, Rebecca Beers, and Jason W. Kean
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2075–2088, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2075-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2075-2023, 2023
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Debris flows often occur after wildfires. These debris flows move water, sediment, and wood. The wood can get stuck in channels, creating a dam that holds boulders, cobbles, sand, and muddy material. We investigated how the channel width and wood length influenced how much sediment is stored. We also used a series of equations to back calculate the debris flow speed using the breaking threshold of wood. These data will help improve models and provide insight into future field investigations.
Gregory E. Tucker, Eric W. H. Hutton, Mark D. Piper, Benjamin Campforts, Tian Gan, Katherine R. Barnhart, Albert J. Kettner, Irina Overeem, Scott D. Peckham, Lynn McCready, and Jaia Syvitski
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Scientists use computer simulation models to understand how Earth surface processes work, including floods, landslides, soil erosion, river channel migration, ocean sedimentation, and coastal change. Research benefits when the software for simulation modeling is open, shared, and coordinated. The Community Surface Dynamics Modeling System (CSDMS) is a US-based facility that supports research by providing community support, computing tools and guidelines, and educational resources.
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Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 361–376, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-361-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-361-2022, 2022
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A well-constrained rainfall-runoff model forced by radar-derived precipitation is used to define rainfall intensity-duration (ID) thresholds for flash floods. The rainfall ID doubles in 5 years after a severe wildfire in a watershed in southern California, USA. Rainfall ID performs stably well for intense pulses of rainfall over durations of 30-60 minutes that cover at least 15%-25% of the watershed. This finding could help issuing flash flood warnings based on radar-derived precipitation.
Katherine R. Barnhart, Eric W. H. Hutton, Gregory E. Tucker, Nicole M. Gasparini, Erkan Istanbulluoglu, Daniel E. J. Hobley, Nathan J. Lyons, Margaux Mouchene, Sai Siddhartha Nudurupati, Jordan M. Adams, and Christina Bandaragoda
Earth Surf. Dynam., 8, 379–397, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-8-379-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-8-379-2020, 2020
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Landlab is a Python package to support the creation of numerical models in Earth surface dynamics. Since the release of the 1.0 version in 2017, Landlab has grown and evolved: it contains 31 new process components, a refactored model grid, and additional utilities. This contribution describes the new elements of Landlab, discusses why certain backward-compatiblity-breaking changes were made, and reflects on the process of community open-source software development.
Katherine R. Barnhart, Rachel C. Glade, Charles M. Shobe, and Gregory E. Tucker
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Terrainbento 1.0 is a Python package for modeling the evolution of the surface of the Earth over geologic time (e.g., thousands to millions of years). Despite many decades of effort by the geomorphology community, there is no one established governing equation for the evolution of topography. Terrainbento 1.0 thus provides 28 alternative models that support hypothesis testing and multi-model analysis in landscape evolution.
Charles M. Shobe, Gregory E. Tucker, and Katherine R. Barnhart
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 4577–4604, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4577-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4577-2017, 2017
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Rivers control the movement of sediment and nutrients across Earth's surface. Understanding how rivers change through time is important for mitigating natural hazards and predicting Earth's response to climate change. We develop a new computer model for predicting how rivers cut through sediment and rock. Our model is designed to be joined with models of flooding, landslides, vegetation change, and other factors to provide a comprehensive toolbox for predicting changes to the landscape.
K. R. Barnhart, I. Overeem, and R. S. Anderson
The Cryosphere, 8, 1777–1799, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-1777-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-1777-2014, 2014
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Dianne L. Brien, Mark E. Reid, Collin Cronkite-Ratcliff, and Jonathan P. Perkins
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1229–1253, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1229-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1229-2025, 2025
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Jonathan Perkins, Nina S. Oakley, Brian D. Collins, Skye C. Corbett, and W. Paul Burgess
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1037–1056, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1037-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1037-2025, 2025
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Rainfall-induced landslides result in deaths and economic losses annually across the globe. However, it is unclear how storm severity relates to landslide severity across large regions. Here we develop a method to dynamically map landslide-affected areas, and we compare this to meteorological estimates of storm severity. We find that preconditioning by earlier storms and the location of rainfall bursts, rather than atmospheric storm strength, dictate landslide magnitude and pattern.
Ellen B. Robson, Bhim Kumar Dahal, and David G. Toll
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 949–973, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-949-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-949-2025, 2025
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Slopes excavated alongside roads in Nepal frequently fail (a landslide), resulting in substantial losses. Our participatory approach study with road engineers aimed to assess how road slope design guidelines in Nepal can be improved. Our study revealed inconsistent guideline adherence due to a lack of user-friendliness and inadequate training. We present general recommendations to enhance road slope management, as well as technical recommendations to improve the guidelines.
Chenchen Qiu and Xueyu Geng
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 709–726, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-709-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-709-2025, 2025
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We propose an integrated method using a combination of a physical vulnerability matrix and a machine learning model to estimate the potential physical damage and associated economic loss caused by future debris flows based on collected historical data on the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau region.
Mark Bloomberg, Tim Davies, Elena Moltchanova, Tom Robinson, and David Palmer
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 647–656, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-647-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-647-2025, 2025
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Debris flows occur infrequently, with average recurrence intervals (ARIs) ranging from decades to millennia. Consequently, they pose an underappreciated hazard. We describe how to make a preliminary identification of debris-flow-susceptible catchments, estimate threshold ARIs for debris flows that pose an unacceptable risk to life, and identify the “window of non-recognition” where debris flows are infrequent enough that their hazard is unrecognised yet frequent enough to pose a risk to life.
Christoph Schaller, Luuk Dorren, Massimiliano Schwarz, Christine Moos, Arie C. Seijmonsbergen, and E. Emiel van Loon
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 467–491, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-467-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-467-2025, 2025
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We developed a machine-learning-based approach to predict the potential thickness of shallow landslides to generate improved inputs for slope stability models. We selected 21 explanatory variables, including metrics on terrain, geomorphology, vegetation height, and lithology, and used data from two Swiss field inventories to calibrate and test the models. The best-performing machine learning model consistently reduced the mean average error by at least 20 % compared to previous models.
Jui-Ming Chang, Che-Ming Yang, Wei-An Chao, Chin-Shang Ku, Ming-Wan Huang, Tung-Chou Hsieh, and Chi-Yao Hung
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 451–466, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-451-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-451-2025, 2025
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The study on the Cilan landslide (CL) demonstrates the utilization of seismic analysis results as preliminary data for geologists during field surveys. Spectrograms revealed that the first event of CL consisted of four sliding failures accompanied by a gradual reduction in landslide volume. The second and third events were minor toppling and rockfalls. Then combining the seismological-based knowledge and field survey results, the spatiotemporal variation in landslide evolution is proposed.
Johannes Jakob Fürst, David Farías-Barahona, Thomas Bruckner, Lucia Scaff, Martin Mergili, Santiago Montserrat, and Humberto Peña
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3103, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3103, 2025
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The 1987 Parraguirre ice-rock avalanche developed into a devastating debris-flow causing loss of many lives and inflicting severe damage near Santiago, Chile. Here, we revise this event combining various observational records with modelling techniques. In this year, important snow cover coincided with warm days in spring. We further quantify the total solid volume, and forward important upward corrections for the trigger and flood volumes. Finally, river damming was key for high flow mobility.
Marko Sinčić, Sanja Bernat Gazibara, Mauro Rossi, and Snježana Mihalić Arbanas
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 183–206, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-183-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-183-2025, 2025
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The paper focuses on classifying continuous landslide conditioning factors for susceptibility modelling, which resulted in 54 landslide susceptibility models that tested 11 classification criteria in combination with 5 statistical methods. The novelty of the research is that using stretched landslide conditioning factor values results in models with higher accuracy and that certain statistical methods are more sensitive to the landslide conditioning factor classification criteria than others.
Benjamin B. Mirus, Thom Bogaard, Roberto Greco, and Manfred Stähli
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 169–182, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-169-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-169-2025, 2025
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Early warning of increased landslide potential provides situational awareness to reduce landslide-related losses from major storm events. For decades, landslide forecasts relied on rainfall data alone, but recent research points to the value of hydrologic information for improving predictions. In this paper, we provide our perspectives on the value and limitations of integrating subsurface hillslope hydrologic monitoring data and mathematical modeling for more accurate landslide forecasts.
Jui-Sheng Chou, Hoang-Minh Nguyen, Huy-Phuong Phan, and Kuo-Lung Wang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 119–146, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-119-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-119-2025, 2025
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This study enhances landslide prediction using advanced machine learning, including new algorithms inspired by historical explorations. The research accurately forecasts landslide movements by analyzing 8 years of data from Taiwan's Lushan, improving early warning and potentially saving lives and infrastructure. This integration marks a significant advancement in environmental risk management.
Di Wu, Yuke Wang, and Xin Chen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4617–4630, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4617-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4617-2024, 2024
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This paper proposes a 3D limit analysis for seismic stability of soil slopes to address the influence of earthquakes on slope stabilities with nonlinear and linear criteria. Comparison results illustrate that the use of a linear envelope leads to the non-negligible overestimation of steep-slope stability, and this overestimation will be significant with increasing earthquakes. Earthquakes have a smaller influence on slope slip surfaces with a nonlinear envelope than those with a linear envelope.
Li Wei, Kaiheng Hu, Shuang Liu, Lan Ning, Xiaopeng Zhang, Qiyuan Zhang, and Md. Abdur Rahim
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4179–4197, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4179-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4179-2024, 2024
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The damage patterns of the buildings were classified into three types: (I) buried by primary debris flow, (II) inundated by secondary dam-burst flood, and (III) sequentially buried by debris flow and inundated by dam-burst flood. The threshold of the impact pressures in Zones (II) and (III) where vulnerability is equal to 1 is 84 kPa and 116 kPa, respectively. Heavy damage occurs at an impact pressure greater than 50 kPa, while slight damage occurs below 30 kPa.
Bo Peng and Xueling Wu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3991–4013, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3991-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3991-2024, 2024
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Our research enhances landslide prevention using advanced machine learning to forecast heavy-rainfall-triggered landslides. By analyzing regions and employing various models, we identified optimal ways to predict high-risk rainfall events. Integrating multiple factors and models, including a neural network, significantly improves landslide predictions. Real data validation confirms our approach's reliability, aiding communities in mitigating landslide impacts and safeguarding lives and property.
Mahnoor Ahmed, Giacomo Titti, Sebastiano Trevisani, Lisa Borgatti, and Mirko Francioni
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-211, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-211, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
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Elevation models are compared with a true dataset for terrain characteristics which selects a better ranking model to test with different parameters for partitioning the terrain. The partitioning of the terrain is measured by how well a partitioned unit can support the mapped landslide area and number of landslides. The effect of this relationship is reflected with different metrics in the susceptibility maps.
Andrea Manconi, Yves Bühler, Andreas Stoffel, Johan Gaume, Qiaoping Zhang, and Valentyn Tolpekin
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3833–3839, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3833-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3833-2024, 2024
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Our research reveals the power of high-resolution satellite synthetic-aperture radar (SAR) imagery for slope deformation monitoring. Using ICEYE data over the Brienz/Brinzauls instability, we measured surface velocity and mapped the landslide event with unprecedented precision. This underscores the potential of satellite SAR for timely hazard assessment in remote regions and aiding disaster mitigation efforts effectively.
Oliver Korup, Lisa V. Luna, and Joaquin V. Ferrer
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3815–3832, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3815-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3815-2024, 2024
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Catalogues of mapped landslides are useful for learning and forecasting how frequently they occur in relation to their size. Yet, rare and large landslides remain mostly uncertain in statistical summaries of these catalogues. We propose a single, consistent method of comparing across different data sources and find that landslide statistics disclose more about subjective mapping choices than trigger types or environmental settings.
Rachael Lau, Carolina Seguí, Tyler Waterman, Nathaniel Chaney, and Manolis Veveakis
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3651–3661, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3651-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3651-2024, 2024
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This work examines the use of interferometric synthetic-aperture radar (InSAR) alongside in situ borehole measurements to assess the stability of deep-seated landslides for the case study of El Forn (Andorra). Comparing InSAR with borehole data suggests a key trade-off between accuracy and precision for various InSAR resolutions. Spatial interpolation with InSAR informed how many remote observations are necessary to lower error in a remote sensing re-creation of ground motion over the landslide.
Zhen Lei Wei, Yue Quan Shang, Qiu Hua Liang, and Xi Lin Xia
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3357–3379, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3357-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3357-2024, 2024
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The initiation of debris flows is significantly influenced by rainfall-induced hydrological processes. We propose a novel framework based on an integrated hydrological and hydrodynamic model and aimed at estimating intensity–duration (ID) rainfall thresholds responsible for triggering debris flows. In comparison to traditional statistical approaches, this physically based framework is particularly suitable for application in ungauged catchments where historical debris flow data are scarce.
Jürgen Mey, Ravi Kumar Guntu, Alexander Plakias, Igo Silva de Almeida, and Wolfgang Schwanghart
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3207–3223, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3207-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3207-2024, 2024
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The Himalayan road network links remote areas, but fragile terrain and poor construction lead to frequent landslides. This study on the NH-7 in India's Uttarakhand region analyzed 300 landslides after heavy rainfall in 2022 . Factors like slope, rainfall, rock type and road work influence landslides. The study's model predicts landslide locations for better road maintenance planning, highlighting the risk from climate change and increased road use.
Bart Strijker and Matthijs Kok
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1495, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1495, 2024
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This study examines how hydraulic head levels in canal dikes respond to heavy rainfall, potentially causing instabilities and flooding. Using time series models and simulating long-term head levels, we identified clusters of dikes where head peaks are driven by similar rainfall events. Statistical analyses show that extreme and yearly conditions are close. However, extreme conditions are expected to become more frequent due to climate change, though some dikes will be less affected than others.
Isabelle Utley, Tristram Hales, Ekbal Hussain, and Xuanmei Fan
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2277, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2277, 2024
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We analysed debris flows in Sichuan, China, using satellite data and simulations to assess check dam efficacy. Our study found whilst check dams can mitigate smaller flows, they may increase exposure to extreme events, with up to 40 % of structures in some areas affected. Urban development and reliance on check dams can create a false sense of security, raising exposure during large debris flows and highlights the need for risk management and infrastructure planning in hazard-prone areas.
Daniel Camilo Roman Quintero, Pasquale Marino, Abdullah Abdullah, Giovanni Francesco Santonastaso, and Roberto Greco
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2329, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2329, 2024
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Local thresholds for landslide forecasting, combining hydrologic predisposing factors and rainfall features, are developed from a physically based model of a slope. To extend their application to a wide area, uncertainty due to spatial variability of geomorphological and hydrologic variables is introduced. The obtained hydrometeorological thresholds, integrating root zone soil moisture and aquifer water level with rainfall depth, outperform thresholds based on rain intensity and duration.
Micol Fumagalli, Alberto Previati, Paolo Frattini, and Giovanni B. Crosta
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-140, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-140, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
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Shallow landslides are mass movements of limited thickness, mainly triggered by extreme rainfalls, that can pose a serious risk to the population. This study uses statistical methods to analyse and simulate the relationship between shallow landslides and rainfalls, showing that in the studied area shallow landslides are modulated by rainfall but controlled by lithology. A new classification method considering the costs associated with a misclassification of the susceptibility is also proposed.
Fabiola Banfi, Emanuele Bevacqua, Pauline Rivoire, Sérgio C. Oliveira, Joaquim G. Pinto, Alexandre M. Ramos, and Carlo De Michele
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2689–2704, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2689-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2689-2024, 2024
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Landslides are complex phenomena causing important impacts in vulnerable areas, and they are often triggered by rainfall. Here, we develop a new approach that uses information on the temporal clustering of rainfall, i.e. multiple events close in time, to detect landslide events and compare it with the use of classical empirical rainfall thresholds, considering as a case study the region of Lisbon, Portugal. The results could help to improve the prediction of rainfall-triggered landslides.
Jianqi Zhuang, Jianbing Peng, Chenhui Du, Yi Zhu, and Jiaxu Kong
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2615–2631, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2615-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2615-2024, 2024
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The Revised Infinite Slope Model (RISM) is proposed using the equal differential unit method and correcting the deficiency of the safety factor increasing with the slope increasing when the slope is larger than 40°, as calculated using the Taylor slope infinite model. The intensity–duration (I–D) prediction curve of the rainfall-induced shallow loess landslides with different slopes was constructed and can be used in forecasting regional shallow loess landslides.
Francis K. Rengers, Samuel Bower, Andrew Knapp, Jason W. Kean, Danielle W. vonLembke, Matthew A. Thomas, Jaime Kostelnik, Katherine R. Barnhart, Matthew Bethel, Joseph E. Gartner, Madeline Hille, Dennis M. Staley, Justin K. Anderson, Elizabeth K. Roberts, Stephen B. DeLong, Belize Lane, Paxton Ridgway, and Brendan P. Murphy
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2093–2114, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2093-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2093-2024, 2024
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Every year the U.S. Geological Survey produces 50–100 postfire debris-flow hazard assessments using models for debris-flow likelihood and volume. To refine these models they must be tested with datasets that clearly document rainfall, debris-flow response, and debris-flow volume. These datasets are difficult to obtain, but this study developed and analyzed a postfire dataset with more than 100 postfire storm responses over a 2-year period. We also proposed ways to improve these models.
Praveen Kumar, Priyanka Priyanka, Kala Venkata Uday, and Varun Dutt
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1913–1928, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1913-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1913-2024, 2024
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Our study focuses on predicting soil movement to mitigate landslide risks. We develop machine learning models with oversampling techniques to address the class imbalance in monitoring data. The dynamic ensemble model with K-means SMOTE (synthetic minority oversampling technique) achieves high precision, high recall, and a high F1 score. Our findings highlight the potential of these models with oversampling techniques to improve soil movement predictions in landslide-prone areas.
Kristian Svennevig, Julian Koch, Marie Keiding, and Gregor Luetzenburg
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1897–1911, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1897-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1897-2024, 2024
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In our study, we analysed publicly available data in order to investigate the impact of climate change on landslides in Denmark. Our research indicates that the rising groundwater table due to climate change will result in an increase in landslide activity. Previous incidents of extremely wet winters have caused damage to infrastructure and buildings due to landslides. This study is the first of its kind to exclusively rely on public data and examine landslides in Denmark.
Jiao Wang, Zhangxing Wang, Guanhua Sun, and Hongming Luo
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1741–1756, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1741-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1741-2024, 2024
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With a simplified formula linking rainfall and groundwater level, the rise of the phreatic surface within the slope can be obtained. Then, a global analysis method that considers both seepage and seismic forces is proposed to determine the safety factor of slopes subjected to the combined effect of rainfall and earthquakes. By taking a slope in the Three Gorges Reservoir area as an example, the safety evolution of the slope combined with both rainfall and earthquake is also examined.
Carlo Tacconi Stefanelli, William Frodella, Francesco Caleca, Zhanar Raimbekova, Ruslan Umaraliev, and Veronica Tofani
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1697–1720, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1697-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1697-2024, 2024
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Central Asia regions are marked by active tectonics, high mountains with glaciers, and strong rainfall. These predisposing factors make large landslides a serious threat in the area and a source of possible damming scenarios, which endanger the population. To prevent this, a semi-automated geographic information system (GIS-)based mapping method, centered on a bivariate correlation of morphometric parameters, was applied to give preliminary information on damming susceptibility in Central Asia.
Rex L. Baum, Dianne L. Brien, Mark E. Reid, William H. Schulz, and Matthew J. Tello
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1579–1605, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1579-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1579-2024, 2024
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We mapped potential for heavy rainfall to cause landslides in part of the central mountains of Puerto Rico using new tools for estimating soil depth and quasi-3D slope stability. Potential ground-failure locations correlate well with the spatial density of landslides from Hurricane Maria. The smooth boundaries of the very high and high ground-failure susceptibility zones enclose 75 % and 90 %, respectively, of observed landslides. The maps can help mitigate ground-failure hazards.
Katherine R. Barnhart, Christopher R. Miller, Francis K. Rengers, and Jason W. Kean
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1459–1483, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1459-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1459-2024, 2024
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Debris flows are a type of fast-moving landslide that start from shallow landslides or during intense rain. Infrastructure located downstream of watersheds susceptible to debris flows may be damaged should a debris flow reach them. We present and evaluate an approach to forecast building damage caused by debris flows. We test three alternative models for simulating the motion of debris flows and find that only one can forecast the correct number and spatial pattern of damaged buildings.
Luke A. McGuire, Francis K. Rengers, Ann M. Youberg, Alexander N. Gorr, Olivia J. Hoch, Rebecca Beers, and Ryan Porter
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1357–1379, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1357-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1357-2024, 2024
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Runoff and erosion increase after fire, leading to a greater likelihood of floods and debris flows. We monitored debris flow activity following a fire in western New Mexico, USA, and observed 16 debris flows over a <2-year monitoring period. Rainstorms with recurrence intervals of approximately 1 year were sufficient to initiate debris flows. All debris flows initiated during the first several months following the fire, indicating a rapid decrease in debris flow susceptibility over time.
Ken'ichi Koshimizu, Satoshi Ishimaru, Fumitoshi Imaizumi, and Gentaro Kawakami
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1287–1301, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1287-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1287-2024, 2024
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Morphological conditions of drainage basins that classify the presence or absence of debris flow fans were analyzed in areas with different rock strength using decision tree analysis. The relief ratio is the most important morphological factor regardless of the geology. However, the thresholds of morphological parameters needed for forming debris flow fans differ depending on the geology. Decision tree analysis is an effective tool for evaluating the debris flow risk for each geology.
Daniel Bolliger, Fritz Schlunegger, and Brian W. McArdell
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1035–1049, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1035-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1035-2024, 2024
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We analysed data from the Illgraben debris flow monitoring station, Switzerland, and we modelled these flows with a debris flow runout model. We found that no correlation exists between the grain size distribution, the mineralogical composition of the matrix, and the debris flow properties. The flow properties rather appear to be determined by the flow volume, from which most other parameters can be derived.
Yuntao Zhou, Xiaoyan Zhao, Guangze Zhang, Bernd Wünnemann, Jiajia Zhang, and Minghui Meng
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 891–906, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-891-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-891-2024, 2024
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We developed three rock bridge models to analyze 3D stability and deformation behaviors of the Tizicao landslide and found that the contact surface model with high strength parameters combines advantages of the intact rock mass model in simulating the deformation of slopes with rock bridges and the modeling advantage of the Jennings model. The results help in choosing a rock bridge model to simulate landslide stability and reveal the influence laws of rock bridges on the stability of landslides.
Ashok Dahal, Hakan Tanyas, Cees van Westen, Mark van der Meijde, Paul Martin Mai, Raphaël Huser, and Luigi Lombardo
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 823–845, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-823-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-823-2024, 2024
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We propose a modeling approach capable of recognizing slopes that may generate landslides, as well as how large these mass movements may be. This protocol is implemented, tested, and validated with data that change in both space and time via an Ensemble Neural Network architecture.
Li-Ru Luo, Zhi-Xiang Yu, Li-Jun Zhang, Qi Wang, Lin-Xu Liao, and Li Peng
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 631–649, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-631-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-631-2024, 2024
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We performed field investigations on a rockfall near Jiguanshan National Forest Park, Chengdu. Vital information was obtained from an unmanned aerial vehicle survey. A finite element model was created to reproduce the damage evolution. We found that the impact kinetic energy was below the design protection energy. Improper member connections prevent the barrier from producing significant deformation to absorb energy. Damage is avoided by improving the ability of the nets and ropes to slide.
Sudhanshu Dixit, Srikrishnan Siva Subramanian, Piyush Srivastava, Ali P. Yunus, Tapas Ranjan Martha, and Sumit Sen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 465–480, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-465-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-465-2024, 2024
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Rainfall intensity–duration (ID) thresholds can aid in the prediction of natural hazards. Large-scale sediment disasters like landslides, debris flows, and flash floods happen frequently in the Himalayas because of their propensity for intense precipitation events. We provide a new framework that combines the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model with a regionally distributed numerical model for debris flows to analyse and predict intense rainfall-induced landslides in the Himalayas.
Jacob B. Woodard, Benjamin B. Mirus, Nathan J. Wood, Kate E. Allstadt, Benjamin A. Leshchinsky, and Matthew M. Crawford
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1–12, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1-2024, 2024
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Dividing landscapes into hillslopes greatly improves predictions of landslide potential across landscapes, but their scaling is often arbitrarily set and can require significant computing power to delineate. Here, we present a new computer program that can efficiently divide landscapes into meaningful slope units scaled to best capture landslide processes. The results of this work will allow an improved understanding of landslide potential and can help reduce the impacts of landslides worldwide.
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Short summary
Fire can dramatically increase the risk of debris flows to downstream communities with little warning, but hazard assessments have not traditionally included estimates of inundation. We unify models developed by the scientific community to create probabilistic estimates of inundation area in response to rainfall at forecast lead times (≥ 24 h) needed for decision-making. This work takes an initial step toward a near-real-time postfire debris-flow inundation hazard assessment product.
Fire can dramatically increase the risk of debris flows to downstream communities with little...
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