Probabilistic assessment of postfire debris-flow inundation in response to forecast rainfall

Prescott, Alexander B.; McGuire, Luke A.; Jun, Kwang-Sung; Barnhart, Katherine R.; Oakley, Nina S.

doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2359-2024

Articles | Volume 24, issue 7

https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2359-2024

© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2359-2024

© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Articles | Volume 24, issue 7

Research article

|

15 Jul 2024

Research article |

| 15 Jul 2024

Probabilistic assessment of postfire debris-flow inundation in response to forecast rainfall

Alexander B. Prescott, Luke A. McGuire, Kwang-Sung Jun, Katherine R. Barnhart, and Nina S. Oakley

Supplement

https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2359-2024-supplement

Data sets

Online repository for code and data used in: Probabilistic assessment of postfire debris-flow inundation in response to forecast rainfall Alexander B. Prescott et al. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7838914

Model code and software

Online repository for code and data used in: Probabilistic assessment of postfire debris-flow inundation in response to forecast rainfall Alexander B. Prescott et al. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7838914

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Short summary

Fire can dramatically increase the risk of debris flows to downstream communities with little warning, but hazard assessments have not traditionally included estimates of inundation. We unify models developed by the scientific community to create probabilistic estimates of inundation area in response to rainfall at forecast lead times (≥ 24 h) needed for decision-making. This work takes an initial step toward a near-real-time postfire debris-flow inundation hazard assessment product.