Articles | Volume 23, issue 7
Research article
13 Jul 2023
Research article |  | 13 Jul 2023

Climate-induced storminess forces major increases in future storm surge hazard in the South China Sea region

Melissa Wood, Ivan D. Haigh, Quan Quan Le, Hung Nghia Nguyen, Hoang Ba Tran, Stephen E. Darby, Robert Marsh, Nikolaos Skliris, Joël J.-M. Hirschi, Robert J. Nicholls, and Nadia Bloemendaal

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Cited articles

Anh, L. T., Takagi, H., Thao, N. D., and Esteban, M.: Investigation of awareness of typhoon and storm surge in the Mekong Delta – Recollection of 1997 Typhoon Linda, Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Ser. B3 (Ocean Engineering), 73, I_168–I_173, 2017. 
Arns, A., Wahl, T., Wolff, C., Vafeidis, A. T., Haigh, I. D., Woodworth, P., Niehüser, S., and Jensen, J.: Non-linear interaction modulates global extreme sea levels, coastal flood exposure, and impacts, Nat. Commun., 11, 1–9,, 2020. 
Bangalore, M., Smith, A., and Veldkamp, T.: Exposure to floods, climate change, and poverty in Vietnam, Economics of Disasters and Climate Change 3, 79–99,, 2019. 
Baranes, H. E., Woodruff, J. D., Talke, S. A., Kopp, R. E., Ray, R. D., and DeConto, R. M.: Tidally driven interannual variation in extreme sea level frequencies in the Gulf of Maine, J. Geophys. Res.-Oceans, 125, e2020JC016291,, 2020. 
Bertin, X., Li, K., Roland, A., Zhang, Y. J., Breilh, J. F., and Chaumillon, E.: A modeling-based analysis of the flooding associated with Xynthia, central Bay of Biscay, Coast. Eng., 94, 80–89, 2014. 
Short summary
We used a novel database of simulated tropical cyclone tracks to explore whether typhoon-induced storm surges present a future flood risk to low-lying coastal communities around the South China Sea. We found that future climate change is likely to change tropical cyclone behaviour to an extent that this increases the severity and frequency of storm surges to Vietnam, southern China, and Thailand. Consequently, coastal flood defences need to be reviewed for resilience against this future hazard.
Final-revised paper