Articles | Volume 23, issue 7
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2475-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Special issue:
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2475-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
13 Jul 2023
Research article |
| 13 Jul 2023
| 13 Jul 2023
Climate-induced storminess forces major increases in future storm surge hazard in the South China Sea region
Melissa Wood
School of Ocean and Earth Science, National Oceanography Centre
Southampton, University of Southampton, Waterfront Campus, European Way,
Southampton, UK
Ivan D. Haigh
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
School of Ocean and Earth Science, National Oceanography Centre
Southampton, University of Southampton, Waterfront Campus, European Way,
Southampton, UK
Quan Quan Le
Southern Institute of Water Resources Research (SIWRR), 658th Vo Van
Kiet Avenue, Ward 1, District 5, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam
Hung Nghia Nguyen
Southern Institute of Water Resources Research (SIWRR), 658th Vo Van
Kiet Avenue, Ward 1, District 5, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam
Hoang Ba Tran
Southern Institute of Water Resources Research (SIWRR), 658th Vo Van
Kiet Avenue, Ward 1, District 5, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam
Stephen E. Darby
School of Geography and Environmental Science, University of
Southampton, Highfield, Southampton, UK
Robert Marsh
School of Ocean and Earth Science, National Oceanography Centre
Southampton, University of Southampton, Waterfront Campus, European Way,
Southampton, UK
Nikolaos Skliris
School of Ocean and Earth Science, National Oceanography Centre
Southampton, University of Southampton, Waterfront Campus, European Way,
Southampton, UK
Joël J.-M. Hirschi
National Oceanography Centre, European Way, Southampton, SO14 3ZH, UK
Robert J. Nicholls
Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, University of East
Anglia, Norwich, UK
Nadia Bloemendaal
Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM), Vrije Universiteit
Amsterdam, 1081 HV, Amsterdam, the Netherlands
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We analyse dependences between different flooding drivers around the USA coastline, where the Gulf of Mexico and the southeastern and southwestern coasts are regions of high dependence between flooding drivers. Dependence is higher during the tropical season in the Gulf and at some locations on the East Coast but higher during the extratropical season on the West Coast. The analysis gives new insights on locations, driver combinations, and the time of the year when compound flooding is likely.
Julia Rulent, Lucy M. Bricheno, J. A. Mattias Green, Ivan D. Haigh, and Huw Lewis
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High coastal total water levels (TWLs) can lead to flooding and hazardous conditions for coastal communities and environment. In this research we are using numerical models to study the interactions between the three main components of the TWL (waves, tides, and surges) on UK and Irish coasts during winter 2013/14. The main finding of this research is that extreme waves and surges can indeed happen together, even at high tide, but they often occurred simultaneously 2–3 h before high tide.
Samuel Tiéfolo Diabaté, Didier Swingedouw, Joël Jean-Marie Hirschi, Aurélie Duchez, Philip J. Leadbitter, Ivan D. Haigh, and Gerard D. McCarthy
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Davide Zanchettin, Sara Bruni, Fabio Raicich, Piero Lionello, Fanny Adloff, Alexey Androsov, Fabrizio Antonioli, Vincenzo Artale, Eugenio Carminati, Christian Ferrarin, Vera Fofonova, Robert J. Nicholls, Sara Rubinetti, Angelo Rubino, Gianmaria Sannino, Giorgio Spada, Rémi Thiéblemont, Michael Tsimplis, Georg Umgiesser, Stefano Vignudelli, Guy Wöppelmann, and Susanna Zerbini
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Piero Lionello, David Barriopedro, Christian Ferrarin, Robert J. Nicholls, Mirko Orlić, Fabio Raicich, Marco Reale, Georg Umgiesser, Michalis Vousdoukas, and Davide Zanchettin
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2705–2731, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2705-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2705-2021, 2021
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Georg Umgiesser, Marco Bajo, Christian Ferrarin, Andrea Cucco, Piero Lionello, Davide Zanchettin, Alvise Papa, Alessandro Tosoni, Maurizio Ferla, Elisa Coraci, Sara Morucci, Franco Crosato, Andrea Bonometto, Andrea Valentini, Mirko Orlić, Ivan D. Haigh, Jacob Woge Nielsen, Xavier Bertin, André Bustorff Fortunato, Begoña Pérez Gómez, Enrique Alvarez Fanjul, Denis Paradis, Didier Jourdan, Audrey Pasquet, Baptiste Mourre, Joaquín Tintoré, and Robert J. Nicholls
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2679–2704, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2679-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2679-2021, 2021
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The city of Venice relies crucially on a good storm surge forecast to protect its population and cultural heritage. In this paper, we provide a state-of-the-art review of storm surge forecasting, starting from examples in Europe and focusing on the Adriatic Sea and the Lagoon of Venice. We discuss the physics of storm surge, as well as the particular aspects of Venice and new techniques in storm surge modeling. We also give recommendations on what a future forecasting system should look like.
Piero Lionello, Robert J. Nicholls, Georg Umgiesser, and Davide Zanchettin
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2633–2641, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2633-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2633-2021, 2021
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Venice is an iconic place, and a paradigm of huge historical and cultural value is at risk. The threat posed by floods has dramatically increased in recent decades and is expected to continue to grow – and even accelerate – through this century. There is a need to better understand the future evolution of the relative sea level and its extremes and to develop adaptive planning strategies appropriate for present uncertainty, which might not be substantially reduced in the near future.
Sepehr Eslami, Piet Hoekstra, Herman W. J. Kernkamp, Nam Nguyen Trung, Dung Do Duc, Hung Nguyen Nghia, Tho Tran Quang, Arthur van Dam, Stephen E. Darby, Daniel R. Parsons, Grigorios Vasilopoulos, Lisanne Braat, and Maarten van der Vegt
Earth Surf. Dynam., 9, 953–976, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-9-953-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-9-953-2021, 2021
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Increased salt intrusion jeopardizes freshwater supply to the Mekong Delta, and the current trends are often inaccurately associated with sea level rise. Using observations and models, we show that salinity is highly sensitive to ocean surge, tides, water demand, and upstream discharge. We show that anthropogenic riverbed incision has significantly amplified salt intrusion, exemplifying the importance of preserving sediment budget and riverbed levels to protect deltas against salt intrusion.
Grant Robert Bigg, Quentin Jutard, and Robert Marsh
Ocean Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/os-2021-61, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-2021-61, 2021
Revised manuscript not accepted
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Icebergs fertilize the Southern Ocean, enhancing phytoplankton production, but this link is yet to be found in the Arctic. This study seeks such a relationship in the NW Atlantic. A one-month-lagged correlation between iceberg flux and chlorophyll levels is found, with the likely cause for this link through advection of the nutrients entrained in iceberg meltwater. The impact of iceberg meltwater on Arctic phytoplankton is much less pronounced than in the Southern Ocean, but it is discernible.
Paula Camus, Ivan D. Haigh, Ahmed A. Nasr, Thomas Wahl, Stephen E. Darby, and Robert J. Nicholls
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2021–2040, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2021-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2021-2021, 2021
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In coastal regions, floods can arise through concurrent drivers, such as precipitation, river discharge, storm surge, and waves, which exacerbate the impact. In this study, we identify hotspots of compound flooding along the southern coast of the North Atlantic Ocean and the northern coast of the Mediterranean Sea. This regional assessment can be considered a screening tool for coastal management that provides information about which areas are more predisposed to experience compound flooding.
Andrew Yool, Julien Palmiéri, Colin G. Jones, Lee de Mora, Till Kuhlbrodt, Ekatarina E. Popova, A. J. George Nurser, Joel Hirschi, Adam T. Blaker, Andrew C. Coward, Edward W. Blockley, and Alistair A. Sellar
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 3437–3472, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-3437-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-3437-2021, 2021
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The ocean plays a key role in modulating the Earth’s climate. Understanding this role is critical when using models to project future climate change. Consequently, it is necessary to evaluate their realism against the ocean's observed state. Here we validate UKESM1, a new Earth system model, focusing on the realism of its ocean physics and circulation, as well as its biological cycles and productivity. While we identify biases, generally the model performs well over a wide range of properties.
Yasser Hamdi, Ivan D. Haigh, Sylvie Parey, and Thomas Wahl
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1461–1465, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1461-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1461-2021, 2021
Pablo Ortega, Jon I. Robson, Matthew Menary, Rowan T. Sutton, Adam Blaker, Agathe Germe, Jöel J.-M. Hirschi, Bablu Sinha, Leon Hermanson, and Stephen Yeager
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 419–438, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-419-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-419-2021, 2021
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Deep Labrador Sea densities are receiving increasing attention because of their link to many of the processes that govern decadal climate oscillations in the North Atlantic and their potential use as a precursor of those changes. This article explores those links and how they are represented in global climate models, documenting the main differences across models. Models are finally compared with observational products to identify the ones that reproduce the links more realistically.
Adam T. Blaker, Manoj Joshi, Bablu Sinha, David P. Stevens, Robin S. Smith, and Joël J.-M. Hirschi
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 275–293, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-275-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-275-2021, 2021
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FORTE 2.0 is a flexible coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation model that can be run on modest hardware. We present two 2000-year simulations which show that FORTE 2.0 is capable of producing a stable climate. Earlier versions of FORTE were used for a wide range of studies, ranging from aquaplanet configurations to investigating the cold European winters of 2009–2010. This paper introduces the updated model for which the code and configuration are now publicly available.
Jens A. de Bruijn, James E. Daniell, Antonios Pomonis, Rashmin Gunasekera, Joshua Macabuag, Marleen C. de Ruiter, Siem Jan Koopman, Nadia Bloemendaal, Hans de Moel, and Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2020-282, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2020-282, 2020
Revised manuscript not accepted
Short summary
Short summary
Following hurricanes and other natural hazards, it is important to quickly estimate the damage caused by the hazard such that recovery aid can be granted from organizations such as the European Union and the World Bank. To do so, it is important to estimate the vulnerability of buildings to the hazards. In this research, we use post-disaster observations from social media to improve these vulnerability assessments and show its application in the Bahamas following Hurricane Dorian.
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Short summary
We used a novel database of simulated tropical cyclone tracks to explore whether typhoon-induced storm surges present a future flood risk to low-lying coastal communities around the South China Sea. We found that future climate change is likely to change tropical cyclone behaviour to an extent that this increases the severity and frequency of storm surges to Vietnam, southern China, and Thailand. Consequently, coastal flood defences need to be reviewed for resilience against this future hazard.
We used a novel database of simulated tropical cyclone tracks to explore whether typhoon-induced...
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