Articles | Volume 23, issue 7
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2475-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Special issue:
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2475-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
13 Jul 2023
Research article |
| 13 Jul 2023
| 13 Jul 2023
Climate-induced storminess forces major increases in future storm surge hazard in the South China Sea region
Melissa Wood
School of Ocean and Earth Science, National Oceanography Centre
Southampton, University of Southampton, Waterfront Campus, European Way,
Southampton, UK
Ivan D. Haigh
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
School of Ocean and Earth Science, National Oceanography Centre
Southampton, University of Southampton, Waterfront Campus, European Way,
Southampton, UK
Quan Quan Le
Southern Institute of Water Resources Research (SIWRR), 658th Vo Van
Kiet Avenue, Ward 1, District 5, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam
Hung Nghia Nguyen
Southern Institute of Water Resources Research (SIWRR), 658th Vo Van
Kiet Avenue, Ward 1, District 5, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam
Hoang Ba Tran
Southern Institute of Water Resources Research (SIWRR), 658th Vo Van
Kiet Avenue, Ward 1, District 5, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam
Stephen E. Darby
School of Geography and Environmental Science, University of
Southampton, Highfield, Southampton, UK
Robert Marsh
School of Ocean and Earth Science, National Oceanography Centre
Southampton, University of Southampton, Waterfront Campus, European Way,
Southampton, UK
Nikolaos Skliris
School of Ocean and Earth Science, National Oceanography Centre
Southampton, University of Southampton, Waterfront Campus, European Way,
Southampton, UK
Joël J.-M. Hirschi
National Oceanography Centre, European Way, Southampton, SO14 3ZH, UK
Robert J. Nicholls
Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, University of East
Anglia, Norwich, UK
Nadia Bloemendaal
Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM), Vrije Universiteit
Amsterdam, 1081 HV, Amsterdam, the Netherlands
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Cited
20 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Assessment of coastal inundation triggered by multiple drivers in Ca Mau Peninsula, Vietnam H. Nghia Nguyen et al.
- Technical note: Operational calibration and performance improvement for a 1D hydrodynamic model in a data-scarce coastal area F. Rodrigues do Amaral et al.
- Review article: A comprehensive review of compound flooding literature with a focus on coastal and estuarine regions J. Green et al.
- Numerical simulation of water environment capacity from wet, normal, and dry years: taking the Luo River as an example Y. Wen & Y. Wang
- Sea-level change in Eastern Mediterranean, Aegean and Black seas analyzed at subregional scale of six CORDEX domains P. Uzun & E. Otay
- Assessing typhoon-induced compound flood drivers: a case study in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam F. Rodrigues do Amaral et al.
- Regional modelling of extreme sea levels induced by hurricanes A. Chaigneau et al.
- Vulnerability of Grey Seal Pups (Halichoerus grypus) to Storm Disturbances in the Context of Climate Change: A British Isles Case Study K. Saville et al.
- Projected Changes in Southeast Asian Sea Surface Characteristics Using CMIP6 GCMs O. Salehie et al.
- Contributions of rising mean river level of the Río de la Plata estuary on recorded changes in positive storm surges M. Azkue & E. D’Onofrio
- The SAVEMEDCOASTS-2 webGIS: The Online Platform for Relative Sea Level Rise and Storm Surge Scenarios up to 2100 for the Mediterranean Coasts A. Falciano et al.
- Evaluations of storm tide hazard along the coast of China using synthetic dynamic tropical cyclone events J. Yang et al.
- Antarctica’s uncertain future: global sea-level rise from oceanic and atmospheric forcing, with a focus on atmospheric rivers X. Zou et al.
- Enhancing discharge estimation from SWOT satellite data in a tropical tidal river environment F. Rodrigues do Amaral et al.
- Coupled hydro-geotechnical modelling of breakwater dynamics on a realistic coral reef topography under extreme waves B. Zhang et al.
- Assessment of Potential Storm Surge Hazards Using the Probabilistic Synthetic Typhoon Ensemble: The Western Coast Nuclear Power Plant Site in Korea H. Kim et al.
- Modeling the extreme sea levels and waves in the northern South China Sea: A synthetic tropical cyclone approach W. Zhuge et al.
- Risk of compound flooding substantially increases in the future Mekong River delta M. Wood et al.
- Efficient evaluation of wind energy and carbon mitigation potential under land resource constraints via deep learning J. Gao et al.
- Climate change induced storm surge flood: A systematic review for future research progression D. Ganaie et al.
20 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Assessment of coastal inundation triggered by multiple drivers in Ca Mau Peninsula, Vietnam H. Nghia Nguyen et al.
- Technical note: Operational calibration and performance improvement for a 1D hydrodynamic model in a data-scarce coastal area F. Rodrigues do Amaral et al.
- Review article: A comprehensive review of compound flooding literature with a focus on coastal and estuarine regions J. Green et al.
- Numerical simulation of water environment capacity from wet, normal, and dry years: taking the Luo River as an example Y. Wen & Y. Wang
- Sea-level change in Eastern Mediterranean, Aegean and Black seas analyzed at subregional scale of six CORDEX domains P. Uzun & E. Otay
- Assessing typhoon-induced compound flood drivers: a case study in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam F. Rodrigues do Amaral et al.
- Regional modelling of extreme sea levels induced by hurricanes A. Chaigneau et al.
- Vulnerability of Grey Seal Pups (Halichoerus grypus) to Storm Disturbances in the Context of Climate Change: A British Isles Case Study K. Saville et al.
- Projected Changes in Southeast Asian Sea Surface Characteristics Using CMIP6 GCMs O. Salehie et al.
- Contributions of rising mean river level of the Río de la Plata estuary on recorded changes in positive storm surges M. Azkue & E. D’Onofrio
- The SAVEMEDCOASTS-2 webGIS: The Online Platform for Relative Sea Level Rise and Storm Surge Scenarios up to 2100 for the Mediterranean Coasts A. Falciano et al.
- Evaluations of storm tide hazard along the coast of China using synthetic dynamic tropical cyclone events J. Yang et al.
- Antarctica’s uncertain future: global sea-level rise from oceanic and atmospheric forcing, with a focus on atmospheric rivers X. Zou et al.
- Enhancing discharge estimation from SWOT satellite data in a tropical tidal river environment F. Rodrigues do Amaral et al.
- Coupled hydro-geotechnical modelling of breakwater dynamics on a realistic coral reef topography under extreme waves B. Zhang et al.
- Assessment of Potential Storm Surge Hazards Using the Probabilistic Synthetic Typhoon Ensemble: The Western Coast Nuclear Power Plant Site in Korea H. Kim et al.
- Modeling the extreme sea levels and waves in the northern South China Sea: A synthetic tropical cyclone approach W. Zhuge et al.
- Risk of compound flooding substantially increases in the future Mekong River delta M. Wood et al.
- Efficient evaluation of wind energy and carbon mitigation potential under land resource constraints via deep learning J. Gao et al.
- Climate change induced storm surge flood: A systematic review for future research progression D. Ganaie et al.
Saved (final revised paper)
Latest update: 18 May 2026
Short summary
We used a novel database of simulated tropical cyclone tracks to explore whether typhoon-induced storm surges present a future flood risk to low-lying coastal communities around the South China Sea. We found that future climate change is likely to change tropical cyclone behaviour to an extent that this increases the severity and frequency of storm surges to Vietnam, southern China, and Thailand. Consequently, coastal flood defences need to be reviewed for resilience against this future hazard.
We used a novel database of simulated tropical cyclone tracks to explore whether typhoon-induced...
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