07 Sep 2017
07 Sep 2017
Water-level attenuation in broad-scale assessments of exposure to coastal flooding: a sensitivity analysis
- 1Coastal Risks and Sea-Level Rise Research Group, Department of Geography, Christian-Albrecths University Kiel, Ludewig-Meyn-Str. 14, 24098 Kiel, Germany
- 2Cambridge Coastal Research Unit, Department of Geography, University of Cambridge, Downing Place, Cambridge CB2 3EN, UK
- 3Global Climate Forum e.V. (GCF), Neue Promenade 6, 10178 Berlin, Germany
- 4Faculty of Engineering and the Environment, University of Southampton, Highfield, Southampton SO17 1BJ, UK
- 1Coastal Risks and Sea-Level Rise Research Group, Department of Geography, Christian-Albrecths University Kiel, Ludewig-Meyn-Str. 14, 24098 Kiel, Germany
- 2Cambridge Coastal Research Unit, Department of Geography, University of Cambridge, Downing Place, Cambridge CB2 3EN, UK
- 3Global Climate Forum e.V. (GCF), Neue Promenade 6, 10178 Berlin, Germany
- 4Faculty of Engineering and the Environment, University of Southampton, Highfield, Southampton SO17 1BJ, UK
Abstract. This study explores the uncertainty introduced in global assessments of coastal flood exposure and risk by not accounting for water level attenuation due to land–surface characteristics. We implement a range of plausible water level attenuation values in the flood module of the Dynamic Interactive Vulnerability Assessment (DIVA) modelling framework and assess the sensitivity of flood exposure and flood risk indicators to differences in attenuation rates. Results show a reduction of up to 47 % in area exposure and even larger reductions in population exposure and expected flood damages. Despite the use of a spatially constant rate for water attenuation the reductions vary by country, reflecting the differences in the physical characteristics of the floodplain as well as in the spatial distribution of people and assets in coastal regions. We find that uncertainties related to the omission of this factor in global assessments of flood risk are of similar magnitude to the uncertainties related to the amount of SLR expected over the 21st century. Despite using simplified assumptions, as the process of water level attenuation depends on numerous factors and their complex interactions, our results strongly suggest that future impact modelling needs to focus on an improved representation of the temporal and spatial variation of water levels across floodplains by incorporating the effects of relevant processes.
Athanasios T. Vafeidis et al.


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RC1: 'Reviewer's comments on manuscript', Anonymous Referee #1, 04 Oct 2017
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AC1: 'Response to Anonymous Referee #1', Athanasios Vafeidis, 12 Oct 2017
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AC1: 'Response to Anonymous Referee #1', Athanasios Vafeidis, 12 Oct 2017
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RC2: 'Interactive comment on “Water-level attenuation in broad-scale assessments of exposure to coastal flooding: a sensitivity analysis” by Athanasios T. Vafeidis et al.', Anonymous Referee #2, 19 Oct 2017
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AC2: 'Response to Anonymous Referee #2', Athanasios Vafeidis, 13 Nov 2017
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RC3: 'Reply to author's response', Anonymous Referee #1, 13 Nov 2017
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SC1: 'Short response', Athanasios Vafeidis, 13 Nov 2017
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SC1: 'Short response', Athanasios Vafeidis, 13 Nov 2017
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RC4: 'Interactive comment on “Water-level attenuation in broad-scale assessments of exposure to coastal flooding: a sensitivity analysis” by Athanasios T. Vafeidis et al.', Anonymous Referee #2, 14 Nov 2017
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RC3: 'Reply to author's response', Anonymous Referee #1, 13 Nov 2017
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AC2: 'Response to Anonymous Referee #2', Athanasios Vafeidis, 13 Nov 2017


-
RC1: 'Reviewer's comments on manuscript', Anonymous Referee #1, 04 Oct 2017
-
AC1: 'Response to Anonymous Referee #1', Athanasios Vafeidis, 12 Oct 2017
-
AC1: 'Response to Anonymous Referee #1', Athanasios Vafeidis, 12 Oct 2017
-
RC2: 'Interactive comment on “Water-level attenuation in broad-scale assessments of exposure to coastal flooding: a sensitivity analysis” by Athanasios T. Vafeidis et al.', Anonymous Referee #2, 19 Oct 2017
-
AC2: 'Response to Anonymous Referee #2', Athanasios Vafeidis, 13 Nov 2017
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RC3: 'Reply to author's response', Anonymous Referee #1, 13 Nov 2017
-
SC1: 'Short response', Athanasios Vafeidis, 13 Nov 2017
-
SC1: 'Short response', Athanasios Vafeidis, 13 Nov 2017
-
RC4: 'Interactive comment on “Water-level attenuation in broad-scale assessments of exposure to coastal flooding: a sensitivity analysis” by Athanasios T. Vafeidis et al.', Anonymous Referee #2, 14 Nov 2017
-
RC3: 'Reply to author's response', Anonymous Referee #1, 13 Nov 2017
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AC2: 'Response to Anonymous Referee #2', Athanasios Vafeidis, 13 Nov 2017
Athanasios T. Vafeidis et al.
Athanasios T. Vafeidis et al.
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Cited
3 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Coastal and river flood risk analyses for guiding economically optimal flood adaptation policies: a country-scale study for Mexico T. Haer et al. 10.1098/rsta.2017.0329
- Future response of global coastal wetlands to sea-level rise M. Schuerch et al. 10.1038/s41586-018-0476-5
- Best Practices for Elevation-Based Assessments of Sea-Level Rise and Coastal Flooding Exposure D. Gesch 10.3389/feart.2018.00230
bathtubpattern across the floodplain. Using a global model we find that this assumption can lead to overestimation of impacts, with an uncertainty range that can be of equal magnitude to uncertainties related to future sea-level rise. Our results highlight the importance of improving the representation of the spatial/temporal variation of water levels across floodplains of different landcover.