Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-107
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-107
27 Jun 2024
 | 27 Jun 2024
Status: this preprint is currently under review for the journal NHESS.

Assessment of coastal inundation triggered by multiple drivers in Ca Mau Peninsula, Vietnam

Hung Nghia Nguyen, Quan Quan Le, Dung Viet Nguyen, Tan Hong Cao, Toan Quang To, Hai Do Dac, Melissa Wood, and Ivan D. Haigh

Abstract. The Ca Mau Peninsula plays a critical role in the agricultural and aquacultural productivity of the Vietnam Mekong Delta (VMD), central to regional food security and the population’s economic and social welfare. Unfortunately, this region has also historically been a hotspot for natural disasters, particularly from flooding, which is initiated by seasonal river flux upstream and heightened sea levels downstream, but also exacerbated by global climate change (e.g., increased rainfall and sea-level rise, tropical storm surges) and human activities (e.g. river bed lowering, land subsidence). The potential risks associated with rising inundation levels is important information for the future sustainability of the region and its ability to adapt to both current and forthcoming changes. The research around the influence of such drivers on future flood risk, in the Ca Mau Peninsula, is incomplete, primarily due to the absence of a quantitative coastal inundation map corresponding to future compounded scenarios. In this study, we therefore evaluate flooding dynamics in the Ca Mau peninsula using a fully calibrated 1D model, to represent a range of anthropogenic and climate change compound scenarios. Our findings indicate that factors such as increased high-flows upstream, alterations in the riverbed of the main Mekong channel, and occurrences of storm surges effecting the mainstream Mekong River, are unlikely to significantly affect inundation dynamics in this region. However, land subsidence, rising sea levels, and their combined effects emerge as the primary drivers behind the escalation of inundation events in the Ca Mau peninsula, both in terms of their extent and intensity, in the foreseeable future. These results serve as vital groundwork for strategic development and investment as well as for emergency decision-making and flood management planning, providing essential insights for shaping development policies and devising investment strategies related to infrastructure systems in an area which is rapidly developing.

Publisher's note: Copernicus Publications remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims made in the text, published maps, institutional affiliations, or any other geographical representation in this preprint. The responsibility to include appropriate place names lies with the authors.
Hung Nghia Nguyen, Quan Quan Le, Dung Viet Nguyen, Tan Hong Cao, Toan Quang To, Hai Do Dac, Melissa Wood, and Ivan D. Haigh

Status: open (until 17 Aug 2024)

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Hung Nghia Nguyen, Quan Quan Le, Dung Viet Nguyen, Tan Hong Cao, Toan Quang To, Hai Do Dac, Melissa Wood, and Ivan D. Haigh
Hung Nghia Nguyen, Quan Quan Le, Dung Viet Nguyen, Tan Hong Cao, Toan Quang To, Hai Do Dac, Melissa Wood, and Ivan D. Haigh

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Short summary
The paper focuses on inundation process in a highest climate vulnerability area of the Mekong Delta, main drivers and future impacts, this is importance alert to decision makers and stakeholder for investment of infrastructure, adaptation approaches and mitigating impacts.
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