Articles | Volume 23, issue 5
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1805-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1805-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
15 May 2023
Research article |
| 15 May 2023
| 15 May 2023
Looking for undocumented earthquake effects: a probabilistic analysis of Italian macroseismic data
Andrea Antonucci
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Milan 20133, Italy
Andrea Rovida
Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Milan 20133, Italy
Vera D'Amico
Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Pisa 56125, Italy
Dario Albarello
Department of Physics, Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Siena, Siena 53100, Italy
Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche, Istituto di Geologia Ambientale e Geoingegneria, Rome 00185, Italy
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ASMI, the Italian Archive of Historical Earthquake Data, is an online data collection that currently provides seismological data on earthquakes that occurred in and around Italy from from 461 BCE to 2025 CE. Based on more than 450 data sources, ASMI's web portal distributes earthquake parameters and macroseismic intensity data, along with the bibliographical reference of the data source and – if possible – the data source itself, through queries by both earthquake and data source.
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We present a probabilistic approach for integrating incomplete intensity distributions by means of the Bayesian combination of estimates provided by intensity prediction equations (IPEs) and data documented at nearby localities, accounting for the relevant uncertainties. The performance of the proposed methodology is tested at 28 Italian localities with long and rich seismic histories and for the strong 1980 and 2009 earthquakes in Italy. An application of this approach is also illustrated.
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ASMI, the Italian Archive of Historical Earthquake Data, is an online data collection that currently provides seismological data on earthquakes that occurred in and around Italy from from 461 BCE to 2025 CE. Based on more than 450 data sources, ASMI's web portal distributes earthquake parameters and macroseismic intensity data, along with the bibliographical reference of the data source and – if possible – the data source itself, through queries by both earthquake and data source.
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The 2020 European Seismic Hazard Model (ESHM20) is the latest seismic hazard assessment update for the Euro-Mediterranean region. This state-of-the-art model delivers a broad range of hazard results, including hazard curves, maps, and uniform hazard spectra. ESHM20 provides two hazard maps as informative references in the next update of the European Seismic Design Code (CEN EC8), and it also provides a key input to the first earthquake risk model for Europe.
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We propose a scoring strategy to rank multiple models/branches of a probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) model that could be useful to consider specific requests from stakeholders responsible for seismic risk reduction actions. In fact, applications of PSHA often require sampling a few hazard curves from the model. The procedure is introduced through an application aimed to score and rank the branches of a recent Italian PSHA model according to their fit with macroseismic intensity data.
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EPICA is the 1000–1899 catalogue compiled for the European Seismic Hazard Model 2020 and contains 5703 earthquakes with Mw ≥ 4.0. It relies on the data of the European Archive of Historical Earthquake Data (AHEAD), both macroseismic intensities from historical seismological studies and parameters from regional catalogues. For each earthquake, the most representative datasets were selected and processed in order to derive harmonised parameters, both from intensity data and parametric catalogues.
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As new data are collected, seismic hazard models can be updated and improved. In the framework of a project aimed to update the Italian seismic hazard model, we proposed a model based on the definition and parametrization of area sources. Using geological data, seismicity and other geophysical constraints, we delineated three-dimensional boundaries and activity rates of a seismotectonic zoning and explored the epistemic uncertainty by means of a logic-tree approach.
Andrea Antonucci, Andrea Rovida, Vera D'Amico, and Dario Albarello
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Short summary
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We present a probabilistic approach for integrating incomplete intensity distributions by means of the Bayesian combination of estimates provided by intensity prediction equations (IPEs) and data documented at nearby localities, accounting for the relevant uncertainties. The performance of the proposed methodology is tested at 28 Italian localities with long and rich seismic histories and for the strong 1980 and 2009 earthquakes in Italy. An application of this approach is also illustrated.
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We used 100 years of seismicity in Italy to predict the hypothetical tectonic style of future earthquakes, with the purpose of using this information in a new seismic hazard model. To squeeze all possible information out of the available data, we created a chain of criteria to be applied in the input and output selection processes. The result is a list of cases from very clear ones, e.g., extensional tectonics in the central Apennines, to completely random tectonics for future seismic events.
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Short summary
The earthquake effects undocumented at 228 Italian localities were calculated through a probabilistic approach starting from the values obtained through the use of an intensity prediction equation, taking into account the intensity data documented at close localities for a given earthquake. The results showed some geographical dependencies and correlations with the intensity levels investigated.
The earthquake effects undocumented at 228 Italian localities were calculated through a...
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