Articles | Volume 22, issue 12
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3939-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3939-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
09 Dec 2022
Research article |
| 09 Dec 2022
| 09 Dec 2022
Mass flows, turbidity currents and other hydrodynamic consequences of small and moderate earthquakes in the Sea of Marmara
Aix-Marseille Université, CNRS, IRD, INRAE, Collège de France, CEREGE, Aix-en-Provence, France
M. Sinan Özeren
Eurasia Institute of Earth Sciences, Istanbul Technical University, Maslak, Istanbul, Turkey
Nurettin Yakupoğlu
Geological Engineering, Istanbul Technical University, Maslak, Istanbul, Turkey
Ziyadin Çakir
Geological Engineering, Istanbul Technical University, Maslak, Istanbul, Turkey
Emmanuel de Saint-Léger
CNRS, DT INSU, Parc national d'instrumentation océanographique, Plouzané, France
Olivier Desprez de Gésincourt
CNRS, DT INSU, Parc national d'instrumentation océanographique, Plouzané, France
Anders Tengberg
Aanderaa Data Instruments AS, Bergen, Norway
Cristele Chevalier
Aix-Marseille Université, CNRS, IRD, MIO, Aix-en-Provence, France
Christos Papoutsellis
Aix-Marseille Université, CNRS, IRD, INRAE, Collège de France, CEREGE, Aix-en-Provence, France
Nazmi Postacıoğlu
Physics Engineering, Istanbul Technical University, Maslak, Istanbul, Turkey
Uğur Dogan
Department of Geomatic Engineering, Yıldız Technical University,
Istanbul, Turkey
Hayrullah Karabulut
KOERI, Boğaziçi University, Istanbul, Turkey
Gülsen Uçarkuş
Geological Engineering, Istanbul Technical University, Maslak, Istanbul, Turkey
M. Namık Çağatay
Geological Engineering, Istanbul Technical University, Maslak, Istanbul, Turkey
Related authors
Hugo Pellet, Bruno Arfib, Pierre Henry, Stéphanie Touron, and Ghislain Gassier
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 4035–4057, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4035-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4035-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Conservation of decorated caves is highly dependent on airflows and is correlated with rock formation permeability. We present the first conceptual model of flows around the Paleolithic decorated Cosquer coastal cave (southeastern France), quantify air permeability, and show how its variation affects water levels inside the cave. This study highlights that airflows may change in karst unsaturated zones in response to changes in the water cycle and may thus be affected by climate change.
Wout Krijgsman, Iuliana Vasiliev, Anouk Beniest, Timothy Lyons, Johanna Lofi, Gabor Tari, Caroline P. Slomp, Namik Cagatay, Maria Triantaphyllou, Rachel Flecker, Dan Palcu, Cecilia McHugh, Helge Arz, Pierre Henry, Karen Lloyd, Gunay Cifci, Özgür Sipahioglu, Dimitris Sakellariou, and the BlackGate workshop participants
Sci. Dril., 31, 93–110, https://doi.org/10.5194/sd-31-93-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/sd-31-93-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
BlackGate seeks to MSP drill a transect to study the impact of dramatic hydrologic change in Mediterranean–Black Sea connectivity by recovering the Messinian to Holocene (~ 7 Myr) sedimentary sequence in the North Aegean, Marmara, and Black seas. These archives will reveal hydrographic, biotic, and climatic transitions studied by a broad scientific community spanning the stratigraphic, tectonic, biogeochemical, and microbiological evolution of Earth’s most recent saline and anoxic giant.
Hugo Pellet, Bruno Arfib, Pierre Henry, Stéphanie Touron, and Ghislain Gassier
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 4035–4057, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4035-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4035-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Conservation of decorated caves is highly dependent on airflows and is correlated with rock formation permeability. We present the first conceptual model of flows around the Paleolithic decorated Cosquer coastal cave (southeastern France), quantify air permeability, and show how its variation affects water levels inside the cave. This study highlights that airflows may change in karst unsaturated zones in response to changes in the water cycle and may thus be affected by climate change.
N. Tekin Ünlütürk and U. Doğan
Int. Arch. Photogramm. Remote Sens. Spatial Inf. Sci., XLVIII-4-W9-2024, 371–376, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-archives-XLVIII-4-W9-2024-371-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-archives-XLVIII-4-W9-2024-371-2024, 2024
Wout Krijgsman, Iuliana Vasiliev, Anouk Beniest, Timothy Lyons, Johanna Lofi, Gabor Tari, Caroline P. Slomp, Namik Cagatay, Maria Triantaphyllou, Rachel Flecker, Dan Palcu, Cecilia McHugh, Helge Arz, Pierre Henry, Karen Lloyd, Gunay Cifci, Özgür Sipahioglu, Dimitris Sakellariou, and the BlackGate workshop participants
Sci. Dril., 31, 93–110, https://doi.org/10.5194/sd-31-93-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/sd-31-93-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
BlackGate seeks to MSP drill a transect to study the impact of dramatic hydrologic change in Mediterranean–Black Sea connectivity by recovering the Messinian to Holocene (~ 7 Myr) sedimentary sequence in the North Aegean, Marmara, and Black seas. These archives will reveal hydrographic, biotic, and climatic transitions studied by a broad scientific community spanning the stratigraphic, tectonic, biogeochemical, and microbiological evolution of Earth’s most recent saline and anoxic giant.
Julien Jouanno, Rachid Benshila, Léo Berline, Antonin Soulié, Marie-Hélène Radenac, Guillaume Morvan, Frédéric Diaz, Julio Sheinbaum, Cristele Chevalier, Thierry Thibaut, Thomas Changeux, Frédéric Menard, Sarah Berthet, Olivier Aumont, Christian Ethé, Pierre Nabat, and Marc Mallet
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 4069–4086, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-4069-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-4069-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The tropical Atlantic has been facing a massive proliferation of Sargassum since 2011, with severe environmental and socioeconomic impacts. We developed a modeling framework based on the NEMO ocean model, which integrates transport by currents and waves, and physiology of Sargassum with varying internal nutrient quota, and considers stranding at the coast. Results demonstrate the ability of the model to reproduce and forecast the seasonal cycle and large-scale distribution of Sargassum biomass.
R. Nasirzadehdizaji, D. E. Akyuz, and Z. Cakir
Int. Arch. Photogramm. Remote Sens. Spatial Inf. Sci., XLII-4-W18, 797–801, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-archives-XLII-4-W18-797-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-archives-XLII-4-W18-797-2019, 2019
R. Nasirzadehdizaji, F. B. Sanli, and Z. Cakir
Int. Arch. Photogramm. Remote Sens. Spatial Inf. Sci., XLII-4-W18, 803–807, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-archives-XLII-4-W18-803-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-archives-XLII-4-W18-803-2019, 2019
Marine Bretagnon, Aurélien Paulmier, Véronique Garçon, Boris Dewitte, Séréna Illig, Nathalie Leblond, Laurent Coppola, Fernando Campos, Federico Velazco, Christos Panagiotopoulos, Andreas Oschlies, J. Martin Hernandez-Ayon, Helmut Maske, Oscar Vergara, Ivonne Montes, Philippe Martinez, Edgardo Carrasco, Jacques Grelet, Olivier Desprez-De-Gesincourt, Christophe Maes, and Lionel Scouarnec
Biogeosciences, 15, 5093–5111, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-5093-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-5093-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
In oxygen minimum zone, the fate of the organic matter is a key question as the low oxygen condition would preserve the OM and thus enhance the biological carbon pump while the high microbial activity would foster the remineralisation and the greenhouse gases emission. To investigate this paradigm, sediment traps were deployed off Peru. We pointed out the influence of the oxygenation as well as the organic matter quantity and quality on the carbon transfer efficiency in the oxygen minimum zone.
Nazmi Postacioglu, M. Sinan Özeren, and Umut Canlı
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 905–924, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-905-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-905-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Tsunami and other water waves such as storm surges get amplified as they approach the coast due to shoaling. The underlying physics are guided by energy conservation, but there are several aspects of this phenomenon that are still active research topics. Resonance is one. As waves reflect from the coast, resonance can hinder the efficiency of the reflection by trapping some of the energy in the coastal region. We investigate this phenomenon by taking the bathymetry and bay shape into account.
C. Beck, C. Campos, K. K. Eriş, N. Çağatay, B. Mercier de Lepinay, and F. Jouanne
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 247–259, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-247-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-247-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
Deciphering coseismic offsets from creeping is a key point for an active fault behavior. In a subaqueous setting, coseismic offsets of the seafloor may be sealed off by earthquake-triggered sediments. Along the limit of a pull-apart basin in the Sea of Marmara, successive vertical offsets (up to 1.4m) are deduced from the thicknesses of homogenites which seal-off created scarps. During a 2kyr period, coseismic seafloor offsets are dominant, representing potential tsunami hazards.
J. Friedrich, F. Janssen, D. Aleynik, H. W. Bange, N. Boltacheva, M. N. Çagatay, A. W. Dale, G. Etiope, Z. Erdem, M. Geraga, A. Gilli, M. T. Gomoiu, P. O. J. Hall, D. Hansson, Y. He, M. Holtappels, M. K. Kirf, M. Kononets, S. Konovalov, A. Lichtschlag, D. M. Livingstone, G. Marinaro, S. Mazlumyan, S. Naeher, R. P. North, G. Papatheodorou, O. Pfannkuche, R. Prien, G. Rehder, C. J. Schubert, T. Soltwedel, S. Sommer, H. Stahl, E. V. Stanev, A. Teaca, A. Tengberg, C. Waldmann, B. Wehrli, and F. Wenzhöfer
Biogeosciences, 11, 1215–1259, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-1215-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-1215-2014, 2014
Related subject area
Earthquake Hazards
Towards a harmonized operational earthquake forecasting model for Europe
Modeling seismic hazard and landslide occurrence probabilities in northwestern Yunnan, China: exploring complex fault systems with multi-segment rupturing in a block rotational tectonic zone
Development of a regional probabilistic seismic hazard model for Central Asia
Computing the time-dependent activity rate using non-declustered and declustered catalogues – a first step towards time-dependent seismic hazard calculations for operational earthquake forecasting
Analysis of borehole strain anomalies before the 2017 Jiuzhaigou Ms 7.0 earthquake based on a graph neural network
Testing the 2020 European Seismic Hazard Model (ESHM20) against observations from Romania
Sedimentary record of historical seismicity in a small, southern Oregon lake
A 2700-year record of Cascadia megathrust and crustal/slab earthquakes from Acorn Woman Lakes, Oregon
Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment of Sweden
Correlation between seismic activity and acoustic emission on the basis of in situ monitoring
The European Fault-Source Model 2020 (EFSM20): geologic input data for the European Seismic Hazard Model 2020
2021 Alaska earthquake: entropy approach to its precursors and aftershock regimes
Strategies for comparison of modern probabilistic seismic hazard models and insights from the Germany and France border region
The Earthquake Risk Model of Switzerland, ERM-CH23
Estimating ground motion intensities using simulation-based estimates of local crustal seismic response
Co- and postseismic subaquatic evidence for prehistoric fault activity near Coyhaique, Aysén Region, Chile
Forearc crustal faults as tsunami sources in the upper plate of the Lesser Antilles subduction zone: the case study of the Morne Piton fault system
The 2020 European Seismic Hazard Model: overview and results
The grid-level fixed asset model developed for China from 1951 to 2020
Dynamic Fragility of a Slender Rock Pillar in a Sedimentary Rock Mass – from rock mechanics to seismic hazard
Risk-informed representative earthquake scenarios for Valparaíso and Viña del Mar, Chile
Harmonizing seismicity information in Central Asian countries: earthquake catalogue and active faults
Comparing components for seismic risk modelling using data from the 2019 Le Teil (France) earthquake
Conversion relationships between Modified Mercalli Intensity and Peak Ground Acceleration for historical shallow crustal earthquakes in Mexico
Consistency between the Strain Rate Model and ESHM20 Earthquake Rate Forecast in Europe: insights for seismic hazard
Modelling seismic ground motion and its uncertainty in different tectonic contexts: challenges and application to the 2020 European Seismic Hazard Model (ESHM20)
Scoring and ranking probabilistic seismic hazard models: an application based on macroseismic intensity data
Lesser Antilles Seismotectonic Zoning Model for Seismic Hazard Assessment
A dense micro-electromechanical system (MEMS)-based seismic network in populated areas: rapid estimation of exposure maps in Trentino (NE Italy)
Exploring inferred geomorphological sediment thickness as a new site proxy to predict ground-shaking amplification at regional scale: application to Europe and eastern Türkiye
Surface rupture kinematics of the 2020 Mw 6.6 Masbate (Philippines) earthquake determined from optical and radar data
The influence of aftershocks on seismic hazard analysis: a case study from Xichang and the surrounding areas
Characteristics and mechanisms of near-surface negative atmospheric electric field anomalies preceding the 5 September 2022, Ms 6.8 Luding earthquake in China
Seismogenic depth and seismic coupling estimation in the transition zone between Alps, Dinarides and Pannonian Basin for the new Slovenian seismic hazard model
Towards a dynamic earthquake risk framework for Switzerland
Understanding flow characteristics from tsunami deposits at Odaka, Joban Coast, using a deep neural network (DNN) inverse model
Spring water anomalies before two consecutive earthquakes (Mw 7.7 and Mw 7.6) in Kahramanmaraş (Türkiye) on 6 February 2023
The quest for reference stations at the National Observatory of Athens, Greece
Update on the seismogenic potential of the Upper Rhine Graben southern region
Earthquake forecasting model for Albania: the area source model and the smoothing model
The footprint of a historical paleoearthquake: the sixth-century-CE event in the European western Southern Alps
Seismic background noise levels in the Italian strong-motion network
Testing machine learning models for heuristic building damage assessment applied to the Italian Database of Observed Damage (DaDO)
The seismic hazard from the Lembang Fault, Indonesia, derived from InSAR and GNSS data
Rapid estimation of seismic intensities by analyzing early aftershock sequences using the robust locally weighted regression program (LOWESS)
Towards improving the spatial testability of aftershock forecast models
Accounting for path and site effects in spatial ground-motion correlation models using Bayesian inference
Seismogenic potential and tsunami threat of the strike-slip Carboneras fault in the western Mediterranean from physics-based earthquake simulations
Earthquake hazard characterization by using entropy: application to northern Chilean earthquakes
Seismic risk scenarios for the residential buildings in the Sabana Centro province in Colombia
Marta Han, Leila Mizrahi, and Stefan Wiemer
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 991–1012, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-991-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-991-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Relying on recent accomplishments of collecting and harmonizing data by the 2020 European Seismic Hazard Model (ESHM20) and leveraging advancements in state-of-the-art earthquake forecasting methods, we develop a harmonized earthquake forecasting model for Europe. We propose several model variants and test them on training data for consistency and on a 7-year testing period against each other, as well as against both a time-independent benchmark and a global time-dependent benchmark.
Jia Cheng, Chong Xu, Xiwei Xu, Shimin Zhang, and Pengyu Zhu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 857–877, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-857-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-857-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The northwestern Yunnan region (NWYR), with a complex network of active faults, presents significant seismic hazards such as multi-segment ruptures and landslides. This article introduces a new seismic hazard model which integrates fault slip parameters to assess the risks associated with multi-segment ruptures. The results reveal the intricate relationship between these ruptures and the regional small block rotation induced by regional low-crustal flow and gravitational collapse.
Valerio Poggi, Stefano Parolai, Natalya Silacheva, Anatoly Ischuk, Kanatbek Abdrakhmatov, Zainalobudin Kobuliev, Vakhitkhan Ismailov, Roman Ibragimov, Japar Karaev, Paola Ceresa, Marco Santulin, and Paolo Bazzurro
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 817–842, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-817-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-817-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
A regionally consistent probabilistic risk assessment for multiple hazards and assets was developed under the Strengthening Financial Resilience and Accelerating Risk Reduction in Central Asia (SFRARR) programme, supported by the European Union, the World Bank, and the Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery. This paper outlines the preparation of the source model and presents key results of the probabilistic earthquake hazard analysis for the Central Asian countries.
David Montiel-López, Sergio Molina, Juan José Galiana-Merino, Igor Gómez, Alireza Kharazian, Juan Luis Soler-Llorens, José Antonio Huesca-Tortosa, Arianna Guardiola-Villora, and Gonzalo Ortuño-Sáez
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 515–539, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-515-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-515-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We presents a comparison between different methods of computing the seismic activity rate in the time-dependent annual probability of exceedance (TD-APE) for a given earthquake in two areas: Italy (high seismicity) and Spain (moderate seismicity). Important changes in the TD-APE are seen in Italy before the L'Aquila earthquake, which can be related to foreshocks. In the case of Spain subtle changes are seen before some earthquakes. This approach could enable operational earthquake forecasting.
Chenyang Li, Changfeng Qin, Jie Zhang, Yu Duan, and Chengquan Chi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 231–245, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-231-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-231-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, we advance the field of earthquake prediction by introducing a pre-seismic anomaly extraction method based on the structure of a graph WaveNet model, which reveals the temporal correlation and spatial correlation of the strain observation data from different boreholes prior to the occurrence of an earthquake event.
Elena F. Manea, Laurentiu Danciu, Carmen O. Cioflan, Dragos Toma-Danila, and Matthew C. Gerstenberger
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1–12, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We test and evaluate the results of the 2020 European Seismic Hazard Model (ESHM20) against observations spanning a few centuries at 12 cities in Romania. The full distributions of the hazard curves at the given locations were considered, and the testing was performed for two relevant peak ground acceleration (PGA) values. Our analysis suggests that the observed exceedance rates for the selected PGA levels are consistent with ESHM20 estimates.
Ann E. Morey, Mark D. Shapley, Daniel G. Gavin, Alan R. Nelson, and Chris Goldfinger
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4523–4561, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4523-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4523-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Disturbance events from historical sediments from a small lake in Oregon were evaluated to determine if Cascadia megathrust earthquakes are uniquely identifiable. Geochemical provenance data identify two likely Cascadia earthquakes, one from 1700 CE and the other from 1873 CE. A crustal earthquake deposit and flood deposits were also uniquely identified, suggesting that small Cascadia lakes are good recorders of megathrust earthquakes and other disturbances.
Ann E. Morey and Chris Goldfinger
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4563–4584, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4563-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4563-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study uses the characteristics from a deposit attributed to the 1700 CE Cascadia earthquake to identify other subduction-earthquake deposits in sediments from two lakes located near the California–Oregon border. Seven deposits were identified in these records, and an age–depth model suggests that these correlate in time to the largest Cascadia earthquakes preserved in the offshore record, suggesting that inland lakes can be good recorders of Cascadia earthquakes.
Niranjan Joshi, Björn Lund, and Roland Roberts
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4199–4223, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4199-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4199-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Few large earthquakes and low occurrence rates make seismic hazard assessment of Sweden a challenging task. Recent expansion of the seismic network has improved the quality and quantity of the data recorded. We use these new data to estimate the Swedish seismic hazard using probabilistic methods to find that hazard was previously underestimated in the north. The north has the highest hazard in Sweden, with estimated mean peak ground acceleration of up to 0.06 g for a 475-year return period.
Zhiwen Zhu, Zihan Jiang, Federico Accornero, and Alberto Carpinteri
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4133–4143, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4133-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4133-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Since April 2023, an in situ experiment in a granite tunnel in Southeast China has been revealing strong correlations between acoustic emission signals and seismic activity. Acoustic emission bursts precede seismic events by approximately 17 h, with a notable decline in the b value and natural-time variance κ1. This research provides new evidence that acoustic emission can serve as an effective earthquake precursor.
Roberto Basili, Laurentiu Danciu, Céline Beauval, Karin Sesetyan, Susana Pires Vilanova, Shota Adamia, Pierre Arroucau, Jure Atanackov, Stéphane Baize, Carolina Canora, Riccardo Caputo, Michele Matteo Cosimo Carafa, Edward Marc Cushing, Susana Custódio, Mine Betul Demircioglu Tumsa, João C. Duarte, Athanassios Ganas, Julián García-Mayordomo, Laura Gómez de la Peña, Eulàlia Gràcia, Petra Jamšek Rupnik, Hervé Jomard, Vanja Kastelic, Francesco Emanuele Maesano, Raquel Martín-Banda, Sara Martínez-Loriente, Marta Neres, Hector Perea, Barbara Šket Motnikar, Mara Monica Tiberti, Nino Tsereteli, Varvara Tsironi, Roberto Vallone, Kris Vanneste, Polona Zupančič, and Domenico Giardini
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3945–3976, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3945-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3945-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study presents the European Fault-Source Model 2020 (EFSM20), a dataset of 1248 geologic crustal faults and four subduction systems, each having the necessary parameters to forecast long-term earthquake occurrences in the European continent. This dataset constituted one of the main inputs for the recently released European Seismic Hazard Model 2020, a key instrument to mitigate seismic risk in Europe. EFSM20 adopts recognized open-standard formats, and it is openly accessible and reusable.
Eugenio E. Vogel, Denisse Pastén, Gonzalo Saravia, Michel Aguilera, and Antonio Posadas
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3895–3906, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3895-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3895-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
For the first time, an entropy analysis has been performed in Alaska, a seismic-rich region located in a subduction zone that shows non-trivial behavior: the subduction arc changes seismic activity from the eastern zone to the western zone, showing a decrease in this activity along the subduction zone. This study shows how an entropy approach can help us understand seismicity in subduction zones.
Graeme Weatherill, Fabrice Cotton, Guillaume Daniel, Irmela Zentner, Pablo Iturrieta, and Christian Bosse
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3755–3787, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3755-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3755-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
New generations of seismic hazard models are developed with sophisticated approaches to quantify uncertainties in our knowledge of earthquake processes. To understand why and how recent state-of-the-art seismic hazard models for France, Germany, and Europe differ despite similar underlying assumptions, we present a systematic approach to investigate model-to-model differences and to quantify and visualise them while accounting for their respective uncertainties.
Athanasios N. Papadopoulos, Philippe Roth, Laurentiu Danciu, Paolo Bergamo, Francesco Panzera, Donat Fäh, Carlo Cauzzi, Blaise Duvernay, Alireza Khodaverdian, Pierino Lestuzzi, Ömer Odabaşi, Ettore Fagà, Paolo Bazzurro, Michèle Marti, Nadja Valenzuela, Irina Dallo, Nicolas Schmid, Philip Kästli, Florian Haslinger, and Stefan Wiemer
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3561–3578, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3561-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3561-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The Earthquake Risk Model of Switzerland (ERM-CH23), released in early 2023, is the culmination of a multidisciplinary effort aiming to achieve, for the first time, a comprehensive assessment of the potential consequences of earthquakes on the Swiss building stock and population. ERM-CH23 provides risk estimates for various impact metrics, ranging from economic loss as a result of damage to buildings and their contents to human losses, such as deaths, injuries, and displaced population.
Himanshu Agrawal and John McCloskey
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3519–3536, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3519-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3519-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Rapidly expanding cities in earthquake-prone regions of the Global South often lack seismic event records, hindering accurate ground motion predictions for hazard assessment. Our study demonstrates that, despite these limitations, reliable predictions can be made using simulation-based methods for small (sub)urban units undergoing rapid development. High-resolution local geological data can reveal spatial variability in ground motions, aiding effective risk mitigation.
Morgan Vervoort, Katleen Wils, Kris Vanneste, Roberto Urrutia, Mario Pino, Catherine Kissel, Marc De Batist, and Maarten Van Daele
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3401–3421, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3401-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3401-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study identifies a prehistoric earthquake around 4400 years ago near the city of Coyhaique (Aysén Region, Chilean Patagonia) and illustrates the potential seismic hazard in the region. We found deposits in lakes and a fjord that can be related to subaquatic and onshore landslides, all with a similar age, indicating that they were most likely caused by an earthquake. Through modeling we found that this was an earthquake of magnitude 6.3 to 7.0 on a fault near the city of Coyhaique.
Melody Philippon, Jean Roger, Jean-Frédéric Lebrun, Isabelle Thinon, Océane Foix, Stéphane Mazzotti, Marc-André Gutscher, Leny Montheil, and Jean-Jacques Cornée
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3129–3154, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3129-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3129-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Using novel geophysical datasets, we reassess the slip rate of the Morne Piton fault (Lesser Antilles) at 0.2 mm yr−1 by dividing by four previous estimations and thus increasing the earthquake time recurrence and lowering the associated hazard. We evaluate a plausible magnitude for a potential seismic event of Mw 6.5 ± 0.5. Our multi-segment tsunami model representative of the worst-case scenario gives an overview of tsunami generation if all the fault segments ruptured together.
Laurentiu Danciu, Domenico Giardini, Graeme Weatherill, Roberto Basili, Shyam Nandan, Andrea Rovida, Céline Beauval, Pierre-Yves Bard, Marco Pagani, Celso G. Reyes, Karin Sesetyan, Susana Vilanova, Fabrice Cotton, and Stefan Wiemer
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3049–3073, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3049-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3049-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The 2020 European Seismic Hazard Model (ESHM20) is the latest seismic hazard assessment update for the Euro-Mediterranean region. This state-of-the-art model delivers a broad range of hazard results, including hazard curves, maps, and uniform hazard spectra. ESHM20 provides two hazard maps as informative references in the next update of the European Seismic Design Code (CEN EC8), and it also provides a key input to the first earthquake risk model for Europe.
Danhua Xin, James Edward Daniell, Zhenguo Zhang, Friedemann Wenzel, Shaun Shuxun Wang, and Xiaofei Chen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-138, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-138, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
A high-resolution fixed asset model can help improve the accuracy of earthquake loss assessment. We develop a grid-level fixed asset model for China from 1951 to 2020. We first compile the provincial-level fixed asset from yearbook-related statistics. Then, this dataset is disaggregated into 1 km*1 km grids by using multiple remote sensing data as the weight indicator. We find that fixed asset value increased rapidly after the 1980s and reached 589.31 trillion Chinese yuan in 2020.
Alaa Jbara and Michael Tsesarsky
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-150, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-150, 2024
Revised manuscript under review for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
Fragile geological features are the only empirical data to validate seismic hazard analysis over prehistoric timescales. We present a fragility analysis of a 42 m high rock pillar. Based on LiDAR scanning and in-situ rock elastic modulus measurements, we developed an accurate finite element model. The model was validated by comparing computational modal analysis with in-situ measurements of natural vibrations. Dynamic fragility analysis was used to challenge regional seismic hazard estimates.
Hugo Rosero-Velásquez, Mauricio Monsalve, Juan Camilo Gómez Zapata, Elisa Ferrario, Alan Poulos, Juan Carlos de la Llera, and Daniel Straub
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2667–2687, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2667-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2667-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Seismic risk management uses reference earthquake scenarios, but the criteria for selecting them do not always consider consequences for exposed assets. Hence, we adopt a definition of representative scenarios associated with a return period and loss level to select such scenarios among a large set of possible earthquakes. We identify the scenarios for the residential-building stock and power supply in Valparaíso and Viña del Mar, Chile. The selected scenarios depend on the exposed assets.
Valerio Poggi, Stefano Parolai, Natalya Silacheva, Anatoly Ischuk, Kanatbek Abdrakhmatov, Zainalobudin Kobuliev, Vakhitkhan Ismailov, Roman Ibragimov, Japar Karaev, Paola Ceresa, and Paolo Bazzurro
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2597–2613, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2597-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2597-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
As part of the Strengthening Financial Resilience and Accelerating Risk Reduction in Central Asia (SFRARR) programme, funded by the European Union in collaboration with the World Bank and GFDRR, a regionally consistent probabilistic multi-hazard and multi-asset risk assessment has been developed. This paper describes the preparation of the input datasets (earthquake catalogue and active-fault database) required for the implementation of the probabilistic seismic hazard model.
Konstantinos Trevlopoulos, Pierre Gehl, Caterina Negulescu, Helen Crowley, and Laurentiu Danciu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2383–2401, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2383-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2383-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The models used to estimate the probability of exceeding a level of earthquake damage are essential to the reduction of disasters. These models consist of components that may be tested individually; however testing these types of models as a whole is challenging. Here, we use observations of damage caused by the 2019 Le Teil earthquake and estimations from other models to test components of seismic risk models.
Quetzalcoatl Rodríguez-Pérez and F. Ramón Zúñiga
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-92, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-92, 2024
Revised manuscript under review for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
Seismic intensity reflects earthquake damage, although this parameter is often subjective. On the other hand, peak acceleration values are a direct measure of earthquake effects. Seismic intensity was used to describe historical earthquakes, and its use is rare today. For this reason, it is important to have a relationship between these parameters of strong movements in order to predict the acceleration of historical earthquakes.
Bénédicte Donniol Jouve, Anne Socquet, Céline Beauval, Jesús Piña Valdès, and Laurentiu Danciu
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-787, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-787, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This research investigates how geodetic monitoring enhances accuracy in seismic hazard assessment. By utilizing geodetic strain rate maps for Europe and the ESHM20 source model, we compare geodetic and seismic moment rates across the continent while addressing associated uncertainties. Our analysis reveals primary compatibility in high-activity zones. In well-constrained regions of lower activity, we also observed an overlap in the distribution of seismic and geodetic moments.
Graeme Weatherill, Sreeram Reddy Kotha, Laurentiu Danciu, Susana Vilanova, and Fabrice Cotton
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1795–1834, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1795-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1795-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The ground motion models (GMMs) selected for the 2020 European Seismic Hazard Model (ESHM20) and their uncertainties require adaptation to different tectonic environments. Using insights from new data, local experts and developments in the scientific literature, we further calibrate the ESHM20 GMM logic tree to capture previously unmodelled regional variation. We also propose a new scaled-backbone logic tree for application to Europe's subduction zones and the Vrancea deep seismic source.
Vera D'Amico, Francesco Visini, Andrea Rovida, Warner Marzocchi, and Carlo Meletti
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1401–1413, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1401-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1401-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We propose a scoring strategy to rank multiple models/branches of a probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) model that could be useful to consider specific requests from stakeholders responsible for seismic risk reduction actions. In fact, applications of PSHA often require sampling a few hazard curves from the model. The procedure is introduced through an application aimed to score and rank the branches of a recent Italian PSHA model according to their fit with macroseismic intensity data.
Oceane Foix, Stéphane Mazzotti, Hervé Jomard, Didier Bertil, and the Lesser Antilles Working Group
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-53, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-53, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
By analyzing historical and instrumental seismic data, fault knowledge and geodetic measurements, we provide a new understanding of seismic hazard in the Lesser Antilles via seismotectonic zoning. We propose new models that can have a significant impact on seismic hazard assessment, such as the inclusion of mantle wedge seismicity, volcanic seismicity and a complete revision of the subduction interface zoning.
Davide Scafidi, Alfio Viganò, Jacopo Boaga, Valeria Cascone, Simone Barani, Daniele Spallarossa, Gabriele Ferretti, Mauro Carli, and Giancarlo De Marchi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1249–1260, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1249-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1249-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Our paper concerns the use of a dense network of low-cost seismic accelerometers in populated areas to achieve rapid and reliable estimation of exposure maps in Trentino (northeast Italy). These additional data, in conjunction with the automatic monitoring procedure, allow us to obtain dense measurements which only rely on actual recorded data, avoiding the use of ground motion prediction equations. This leads to a more reliable picture of the actual ground shaking.
Karina Loviknes, Fabrice Cotton, and Graeme Weatherill
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1223–1247, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1223-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1223-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Earthquake ground shaking can be strongly affected by local geology and is often amplified by soft sediments. In this study, we introduce a global geomorphological model for sediment thickness as a protentional parameter for predicting this site amplification. The results show that including geology and geomorphology in site-amplification predictions adds important value and that global or regional models for sediment thickness from fields beyond engineering seismology are worth considering.
Khelly Shan Sta. Rita, Sotiris Valkaniotis, and Alfredo Mahar Francisco Lagmay
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1135–1161, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1135-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1135-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The ground movement and rupture produced by the 2020 Masbate earthquake in the Philippines were studied using satellite data. We highlight the importance of the complementary use of optical and radar datasets. The slip measurements and field observations helped improve our understanding of the seismotectonics of the region, which is critical for seismic hazard studies.
Qing Wu, Guijuan Lai, Jian Wu, and Jinmeng Bi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1017–1033, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1017-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1017-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Aftershocks are typically ignored for traditional probabilistic seismic hazard analyses, which underestimate the seismic hazard to some extent and may cause potential risks. A probabilistic seismic hazard analysis based on the Monte Carlo method was combined with the Omi–Reasenberg–Jones model to systematically study how aftershocks impact seismic hazard analyses. The influence of aftershocks on probabilistic seismic hazard analysis can exceed 50 %.
Lixin Wu, Xiao Wang, Yuan Qi, Jingchen Lu, and Wenfei Mao
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 773–789, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-773-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-773-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The atmospheric electric field (AEF) is the bridge connecting the surface charges and atmospheric particle changes before an earthquake, which is essential for the study of the coupling process between the coversphere and atmosphere caused by earthquakes. This study discovers AEF anomalies before the Luding earthquake in 2022 and clarifies the relationship between the surface changes and atmosphere changes possibly caused by the earthquake.
Polona Zupančič, Barbara Šket Motnikar, Michele M. C. Carafa, Petra Jamšek Rupnik, Mladen Živčić, Vanja Kastelic, Gregor Rajh, Martina Čarman, Jure Atanackov, and Andrej Gosar
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 651–672, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-651-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-651-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We considered two parameters that affect seismic hazard assessment in Slovenia. The first parameter we determined is the thickness of the lithosphere's section where earthquakes are generated. The second parameter is the activity of each fault, which is expressed by its average displacement per year (slip rate). Since the slip rate can be either seismic or aseismic, we estimated both components. This analysis was based on geological and seismological data and was validated through comparisons.
Maren Böse, Laurentiu Danciu, Athanasios Papadopoulos, John Clinton, Carlo Cauzzi, Irina Dallo, Leila Mizrahi, Tobias Diehl, Paolo Bergamo, Yves Reuland, Andreas Fichtner, Philippe Roth, Florian Haslinger, Frédérick Massin, Nadja Valenzuela, Nikola Blagojević, Lukas Bodenmann, Eleni Chatzi, Donat Fäh, Franziska Glueer, Marta Han, Lukas Heiniger, Paulina Janusz, Dario Jozinović, Philipp Kästli, Federica Lanza, Timothy Lee, Panagiotis Martakis, Michèle Marti, Men-Andrin Meier, Banu Mena Cabrera, Maria Mesimeri, Anne Obermann, Pilar Sanchez-Pastor, Luca Scarabello, Nicolas Schmid, Anastasiia Shynkarenko, Bozidar Stojadinović, Domenico Giardini, and Stefan Wiemer
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 583–607, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-583-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-583-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Seismic hazard and risk are time dependent as seismicity is clustered and exposure can change rapidly. We are developing an interdisciplinary dynamic earthquake risk framework for advancing earthquake risk mitigation in Switzerland. This includes various earthquake risk products and services, such as operational earthquake forecasting and early warning. Standardisation and harmonisation into seamless solutions that access the same databases, workflows, and software are a crucial component.
Rimali Mitra, Hajime Naruse, and Tomoya Abe
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 429–444, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-429-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-429-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study estimates the behavior of the 2011 Tohoku-oki tsunami from its deposit distributed in the Joban coastal area. In this study, the flow characteristics of the tsunami were reconstructed using the DNN (deep neural network) inverse model, suggesting that the tsunami inundation occurred in the very high-velocity condition.
Sedat İnan, Hasan Çetin, and Nurettin Yakupoğlu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 397–409, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-397-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-397-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Two devastating earthquakes, Mw 7.7 and Mw 7.6, occurred in Türkiye on 6 February 2023. We obtained commercially bottled waters from two springs, 100 km from the epicenter of Mw 7.7. Samples of the first spring emanating from fault zone in hard rocks showed positive anomalies in major ions lasting for 6 months before the earthquake. Samples from the second spring accumulated in an alluvium deposit showed no anomalies. We show that pre-earthquake anomalies are geologically site-dependent.
Olga-Joan Ktenidou, Antonia Papageorgiou, Erion-Vasilis Pikoulis, Spyros Liakopoulos, Fevronia Gkika, Ziya Cekinmez, Panagiotis Savvaidis, Kalliopi Fragouli, and Christos P. Evangelidis
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-233, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-233, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
Greek seismic data are valuable in European and even global databases, due to its high seismicity and numerous seismic stations. Seismic data coming from stations that lie on rock (i.e., not soil) sits are particularly valuable in seismology to define reference ground conditions and ground motions. However, little knowledge exists yet on how rock stations in Greece behave. This is the first time the network of the National Observatory is studied systematically to reveal reference stations.
Sylvain Michel, Clara Duverger, Laurent Bollinger, Jorge Jara, and Romain Jolivet
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 163–177, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-163-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-163-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The Upper Rhine Graben, located in France and Germany, is bordered by north–south-trending faults, posing a potential threat to dense population and infrastructures on the Alsace plain. We build upon previous seismic hazard studies of the graben by exploring uncertainties in greater detail, revisiting a number of assumptions. There is a 99 % probability that a maximum-magnitude earthquake would be below 7.3 if assuming a purely dip-slip mechanism or below 7.6 if assuming a strike-slip one.
Edlira Xhafaj, Chung-Han Chan, and Kuo-Fong Ma
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 109–119, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-109-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-109-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Our study introduces new earthquake forecasting models for Albania, aiming to map out future seismic hazards. By analysing earthquakes from 1960 to 2006, we have developed models that predict where activity is most likely to occur, highlighting the western coast and southern regions as high-hazard zones. Our validation process confirms these models are effective tools for anticipating seismic events, offering valuable insights for earthquake preparedness and hazard assessment efforts.
Franz Livio, Maria Francesca Ferrario, Elisa Martinelli, Sahra Talamo, Silvia Cercatillo, and Alessandro Maria Michetti
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3407–3424, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3407-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3407-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Here we document the occurrence of an historical earthquake that occurred in the European western Southern Alps in the sixth century CE. Analysis of the effects due to earthquake shaking in the city of Como (N Italy) and a comparison with dated offshore landslides in the Alpine lakes allowed us to make an inference about the possible magnitude and the location of the seismic source for this event.
Simone Francesco Fornasari, Deniz Ertuncay, and Giovanni Costa
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3219–3234, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3219-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3219-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We analysed the background seismic noise for the Italian strong motion network by developing the Italian accelerometric low- and high-noise models. Spatial and temporal variations of the noise levels have been analysed. Several stations located near urban areas are affected by human activities, with high noise levels in the low periods. Our results provide an overview of the background noise of the strong motion network and can be used as a station selection criterion for future research.
Subash Ghimire, Philippe Guéguen, Adrien Pothon, and Danijel Schorlemmer
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3199–3218, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3199-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3199-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This study explores the efficacy of several machine learning models for damage characterization, trained and tested on the Database of Observed Damage (DaDO) for Italian earthquakes. Reasonable damage prediction effectiveness (68 % accuracy) is observed, particularly when considering basic structural features and grouping the damage according to the traffic-light-based system used during the post-disaster period (green, yellow, and red), showing higher relevancy for rapid damage prediction.
Ekbal Hussain, Endra Gunawan, Nuraini Rahma Hanifa, and Qori'atu Zahro
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3185–3197, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3185-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3185-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The earthquake potential of the Lembang Fault, located near the city of Bandung in West Java, Indonesia, is poorly understood. Bandung has a population of over 8 million people. We used satellite data to estimate the energy storage on the fault and calculate the likely size of potential future earthquakes. We use simulations to show that 1.9–2.7 million people would be exposed to high levels of ground shaking in the event of a major earthquake on the fault.
Huaiqun Zhao, Wenkai Chen, Can Zhang, and Dengjie Kang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3031–3050, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3031-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3031-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Early emergency response requires improving the utilization value of the data available in the early post-earthquake period. We proposed a method for assessing seismic intensities by analyzing early aftershock sequences using the robust locally weighted regression program. The seismic intensity map evaluated by the method can reflect the range of the hardest-hit areas and the spatial distribution of the possible property damage and casualties caused by the earthquake.
Asim M. Khawaja, Behnam Maleki Asayesh, Sebastian Hainzl, and Danijel Schorlemmer
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2683–2696, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2683-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2683-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Testing of earthquake forecasts is important for model verification. Forecasts are usually spatially discretized with many equal-sized grid cells, but often few earthquakes are available for evaluation, leading to meaningless tests. Here, we propose solutions to improve the testability of earthquake forecasts and give a minimum ratio between the number of earthquakes and spatial cells for significant tests. We show applications of the proposed technique for synthetic and real case studies.
Lukas Bodenmann, Jack W. Baker, and Božidar Stojadinović
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2387–2402, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2387-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2387-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Understanding spatial patterns in earthquake-induced ground motions is key for assessing the seismic risk of distributed infrastructure systems. To study such patterns, we propose a novel model that accounts for spatial proximity, as well as site and path effects, and estimate its parameters from past earthquake data by explicitly quantifying the inherent uncertainties.
José A. Álvarez-Gómez, Paula Herrero-Barbero, and José J. Martínez-Díaz
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2031–2052, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2031-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2031-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The strike-slip Carboneras fault is one of the largest sources in the Alboran Sea, with it being one of the faster faults in the eastern Betics. The dimensions and location of the Carboneras fault imply a high seismic and tsunami threat. In this work, we present tsunami simulations from sources generated with physics-based earthquake simulators. We show that the Carboneras fault has the capacity to generate locally damaging tsunamis with inter-event times between 2000 and 6000 years.
Antonio Posadas, Denisse Pasten, Eugenio E. Vogel, and Gonzalo Saravia
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1911–1920, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1911-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1911-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
In this paper we understand an earthquake from a thermodynamics point of view as an irreversible transition; then it must suppose an increase in entropy. We use > 100 000 earthquakes in northern Chile to test the theory that Shannon entropy, H, is an indicator of the equilibrium state. Using variation in H, we were able to detect major earthquakes and their foreshocks and aftershocks, including the 2007 Mw 7.8 Tocopilla earthquake and 2014 Mw 8.1 Iquique earthquake.
Dirsa Feliciano, Orlando Arroyo, Tamara Cabrera, Diana Contreras, Jairo Andrés Valcárcel Torres, and Juan Camilo Gómez Zapata
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1863–1890, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1863-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1863-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This article presents the number of damaged buildings and estimates the economic losses from a set of earthquakes in Sabana Centro, a region of 11 towns in Colombia.
Cited articles
Adams, J.: Paleoseismicity of the Cascadia Subduction Zone: Evidence from
turbidites off the Oregon-Washington Margin, Tectonics, 9, 569–583, https://doi.org/10.1029/TC009i004p00569, 1990.
Alpar, B. and Yüce, H.: Sea-level variations and their interactions
between the Black Sea and the Aegean Sea, Estuar. Coast. Shelf Sci., 46, 609–619, 1998.
Arai, K., Naruse, H., Miura, R., Kawamura, K., Hino, R., Ito, Y., Inazu, D.,
Yokokawa, M., Izumi, N., Murayama, M., and Kasaya, T.: Tsunami-generated
turbidity current of the 2011 Tohoku-Oki earthquake, Geology, 41, 1195–1198, https://doi.org/10.1130/G34777.1, 2013.
Armijo, R. and Malavieille, J.: MARMARASCARPS cruise, RV L'Atalante, Flotte océanographique française opérée par l'Ifremer [data set], https://doi.org/10.17600/2010140, 2002.
Armijo, R., Meyer, B., Navarro, S., King, G., and Barka, A.: Asymmetric slip
partitioning in the Sea of Marmara pull-apart: a clue to propagation processes of the North Anatolian Fault?, Terra Nova, 14, 80–86,
https://doi.org/10.1046/j.1365-3121.2002.00397.x, 2002.
Atwater, B. F., Carson, B., Griggs, G. B., Johnson, P. P., and Salmi, M. S.:
Rethinking turbidite paleoseismology along the Cascadia subduction zone,
Geology, 42, 827–830, https://doi.org/10.1130/G35902.1, 2014.
Azpiroz-Zabala, M., Cartigny, M. J. B., Talling, P. J., Parsons, D. R., Sumner, E. J., Clare, M. A., Simmons, S. M., Cooper, C., and Pope, E. L.:
Newly recognized turbidity current structure can explain prolonged flushing
of submarine canyons, Sci. Adv., 3, e1700200, https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.1700200, 2017.
Beck, C., Mercier de Lépinay, B., Schneider, J. L., Cremer, M., Çagatay, N., Wendenbaum, E., Boutareaud, S., Ménot, G., Schmidt, S.,
Weber, O., Eris, K., Armijo, R., Meyer, B., Pondard, N., Gutscher, M. A.,
Turon, J. L., Labeyrie, L., Cortijo, E., Gallet, Y., Bouquerel, H., Gorur, N., Gervais, A., Castera, M. H., Londeix, L., de Rességuier, A., and
Jaouen, A.: Late Quaternary co-seismic sedimentation in the Sea of Marmara's
deep basins, Sediment. Geol., 199, 65–89, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.sedgeo.2005.12.031, 2007.
Beşiktepe, Ş. T., Sur, H. İ., Özsoy, E., Latif, M. A., Oguz,
T., and Ünlüata, Ü.: The circulation and hydrography of the Marmara Sea, Prog. Oceanogr., 34, 285–334, https://doi.org/10.1016/0079-6611(94)90018-3, 1994.
Bradley, B. A., Razafindrakoto, H. N. T., and Polak, V.: Ground-Motion
Observations from the 14 November 2016 Mw 7.8 Kaikoura, New Zealand, Earthquake and Insights from Broadband Simulations, Seismol. Res. Lett., 88, 740–756, https://doi.org/10.1785/0220160225, 2017.
Brizuela, N., Filonov, A., and Alford, M. H.: Internal tsunami waves transport sediment released by underwater landslides, Sci. Rep., 9, 10775, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-019-47080-0, 2019.
Çagatay, M. N., Erel, L., Bellucci, L. G., Polonia, A., Gasperini, L.,
Eriş, K. K., Sancar, Ü., Biltekin, D., Uçarkuş, G., Ülgen, U. B., and Damci, E.: Sedimentary earthquake records in the İzmit Gulf, Sea of Marmara, Turkey, Sediment. Geol., 282, 347–359,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.sedgeo.2012.10.001, 2012.
Çagatay, N. M., Ucarkus, G., Eris, K. K., Henry, P., Gasperini, L., and
Polonia, A.: Submarine canyons of the Sea of Marmara, in: Submarine Canyon Dynamics in the Mediterranean and Tributary Seas, CIESM Workshop Monograph no. 47, edited by: Briand, F., CIESM Publisher, Monaco, 123–135, 2015.
Carter, L., Milliman, J. D., Talling, P. J., Gavey, R., and Wynn, R. B.:
Near-synchronous and delayed initiation of long run-out submarine sediment
flows from a record-breaking river flood, offshore Taiwan, Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, 6–10, https://doi.org/10.1029/2012GL051172, 2012.
Cattaneo, A., Babonneau, N., Ratzov, G., Dan-Unterseh, G., Yelles, K., Bracane, R., Mercier De Lapinay, B., Boudiaf, A., and Daverchare, J.: Searching for the seafloor signature of the 21 May 2003 Boumerdas earthquake
offshore central Algeria, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 12, 2159–2172, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-12-2159-2012, 2012.
Dan, G., Sultan, N., Savoye, B., Deverchere, J., and Yelles, K.: Quantifying
the role of sandy-silty sediments in generating slope failures during
earthquakes: Example from the Algerian margin, Int. J. Earth Sci., 98, 769–789, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00531-008-0373-5, 2009.
Drab, L., Hubert Ferrari, A., Schmidt, S., and Martinez, P.: The earthquake
sedimentary record in the western part of the Sea of Marmara, Turkey, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 12, 1235–1254, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-12-1235-2012, 2012.
Drab, L., Hubert-Ferrari, A., Schmidt, S., Martinez, P., Carlut, J., and El Ouahabi, M.: Submarine Earthquake History of the Çınarcık Segment of the North Anatolian Fault in the Marmara Sea, Turkey, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am., 105, 622–645, https://doi.org/10.1785/0120130083, 2015.
Eriş, K. K., Çagatay, N., Beck, C., Mercier de Lepinay, B., and
Corina, C.: Late-Pleistocene to Holocene sedimentary fills of the
Çinarcik Basin of the Sea of Marmara, Sediment. Geol., 281, 151–165, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.sedgeo.2012.09.001, 2012.
Garfield, N., Rago, T. A., Schnebele, K. J., and Collins, C. A.: Evidence of
a turbidity current in Monterey Submarine Canyon associated with the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake, Cont. Shelf Res., 14, 673–686,
https://doi.org/10.1016/0278-4343(94)90112-0, 1994.
Gavey, R., Carter, L., Liu, J. T., Talling, P. J., Hsu, R., Pope, E., and
Evans, G.: Frequent sediment density flows during 2006 to 2015, triggered by
competing seismic and weather events: Observations from subsea cable breaks
off southern Taiwan, Mar. Geol., 384, 147–158, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.margeo.2016.06.001, 2017.
Goldfinger, C., Nelson, C. H., and Johnson, J. E.: Holocene earthquake records from the cascadia subduction zone and northern san andreas fault
based on precise dating of offshore turbidites, Annu. Rev. Earth Planet. Sci., 31, 555–577, https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev.earth.31.100901.141246, 2003.
Goldfinger, C., Nelson, C. H., Morey, A. E., Johnson, J. E., Patton, J.,
Karabanov, E., Gutiérrez-Pastor, J., Eriksson, A. T., Grácia, E., Dunhill, G., Enkin, R. J., Dallimore, A., and Vallier, T.: Earthquake Hazards of the Pacific Northwest Coastal and Marine Regions Turbidite Event History, Methods and Implications for Holocene Paleoseismicity of the Cascadia
Subduction Zone Professional Paper 1661, USGS Professional Paper 1661-F, USGS, 170 pp., https://pubs.usgs.gov/pp/pp1661f/pp1661f.pdf (last access: 30 November 2022), 2012.
Grall, C., Henry, P., Tezcan, D., Mercier de Lepinay, B., Becel, A., Geli, L., Rudkiewicz, J.-L., Zitter, T., and Harmegnies, F.: Heat flow in the Sea of Marmara Central Basin: Possible implications for the tectonic evolution of the North Anatolian fault, Geology, 40, 3–6, https://doi.org/10.1130/G32192.1, 2012.
Guazzelli, E., Morris, J. F., and Pic, S.: A Physical Introduction to
Suspension Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge,
https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511894671, 2011.
Guerrero, M., Szupiany, R. N., and Amsler, M.: Comparison of acoustic backscattering techniques for suspended sediments investigation, Flow Meas. Instrum., 22, 392–401, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.flowmeasinst.2011.06.003, 2011.
Guerrero, M., Rüther, N., and Szupiany, R. N.: Laboratory validation of
acoustic Doppler current profiler (ADCP) techniques for suspended sediment
investigations, Flow Meas. Instrum., 23, 40–48,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.flowmeasinst.2011.10.003, 2012.
Gutiérrez-Pastor, J., Nelson, C. H., Goldfinger, C., and Escutia, C.:
Sedimentology of seismo-turbidites off the Cascadia and northern California
active tectonic continental margins, northwest Pacific Ocean, Mar. Geol., 336, 99–119, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.margeo.2012.11.010, 2013.
Gwyn Lintern, D., Hill, P. R., and Stacey, C.: Powerful unconfined turbidity
current captured by cabled observatory on the fraser river delta slope,
British Columbia, Canada, Sedimentology, 63, 1041–1064, https://doi.org/10.1111/sed.12262, 2016.
Hage, S., Cartigny, M. J. B., Sumner, E. J., Clare, M. A., Hughes Clarke, J.
E., Talling, P. J., Lintern, D. G., Simmons, S. M., Silva Jacinto, R.,
Vellinga, A. J., Allin, J. R., Azpiroz-Zabala, M., Gales, J. A., Hizzett, J.
L., Hunt, J. E., Mozzato, A., Parsons, D. R., Pope, E. L., Stacey, C. D.,
Symons, W. O., Vardy, M. E., and Watts, C.: Direct Monitoring Reveals Initiation of Turbidity Currents From Extremely Dilute River Plumes, Geophys. Res. Lett., 46, 11310–11320, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL084526, 2019.
Hébert, H., Schindelé, F., Altinok, Y., Alpar, B., and Gazioglu, C.:
Tsunami hazard in the Marmara Sea (Turkey): A numerical approach to discuss
active faulting and impact on the Istanbul coastal areas, Mar. Geol., 215, 23–43, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.margeo.2004.11.006, 2005.
Heerema, C. J., Cartigny, M. J. B., Jacinto, R. S., Simmons, S. M., Apprioual, R., and Talling, P. J.: How distinctive are flood-triggered
turbidity currents?, J. Sediment. Res., 92, 1–11, https://doi.org/10.2110/jsr.2020.168, 2022.
Heezen, B. C., Ericson, D. B., and Ewing, M.: Further evidence for a turbidity current following the 1929 Grand banks earthquake, Deep-Sea Res., 1, 193–202, https://doi.org/10.1016/0146-6313(54)90001-5, 1954.
Henry, P., Şengör, A. M. C., and Çağatay, M. N.: MARNAUT
cruise, RV L'Atalante, Flotte océanographique française opérée par l'Ifremer [data set], https://doi.org/10.17600/7010070, 2007.
Henry, P., Özeren, M. S., Desprez De Gesincourt, O., de Saint-Leger, E.,
Libes, M., Çakir, Z., Yakupoğlu, N., and Géli, L.: EMSO/MAREGAMI
Marmara bottom pressure and current records, SEANOE [data set], https://doi.org/10.17882/78928, 2021.
Hersbach, H., Bell, B., Berrisford, P., Biavati, G., Horányi, A.,
Muñoz Sabater, J., Nicolas, J., Peubey, C., Radu, R., Rozum, I., Schepers, D., Simmons, A., Soci, C., Dee, D., and Thépaut, J.-N.: ERA5
hourly data on single levels from 1959 to present, Copernicus Climate Change
Service (C3S) Climate Data Store (CDS) [data set], https://doi.org/10.24381/cds.adbb2d47, 2018.
Howarth, J. D., Orpin, A. R., Kaneko, Y., Strachan, L. J., Nodder, S. D.,
Mountjoy, J. J., Barnes, P. M., Bostock, H. C., Holden, C., Jones, K., and
Cağatay, M. N.: Calibrating the marine turbidite palaeoseismometer using
the 2016 Kaikōura earthquake, Nat. Geosci., 14, 161–167, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-021-00692-6, 2021.
Hsu, S. K., Kuo, J., Lo, C. L., Tsai, C. H., Doo, W. Bin, Ku, C. Y., and
Sibuet, J. C.: Turbidity currents, submarine landslides and the 2006 Pingtung earthquake off SW Taiwan, Terrest. Atmos. Ocean. Sci., 19, 767–772, https://doi.org/10.3319/TAO.2008.19.6.767(PT), 2008.
Hughes Clarke, J. E.: First wide-angle view of channelized turbidity currents links migrating cyclic steps to flow characteristics, Nat. Commun., 7, 11896, https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms11896, 2016.
Ikehara, K., Kanamatsu, T., Nagahashi, Y., Strasser, M., Fink, H., Usami, K., Irino, T., and Wefer, G.: Documenting large earthquakes similar to the
2011 Tohoku-oki earthquake from sediments deposited in the Japan Trench over
the past 1500 years, Earth Planet. Sc. Lett., 445, 48–56,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epsl.2016.04.009, 2016.
Johnson, H. P., Gomberg, J. S., Hautala, S. L., and Salmi, M. S.: Sediment
gravity flows triggered by remotely generated earthquake waves, J. Geophys. Res.-Solid, 122, 4584–4600, https://doi.org/10.1002/2016JB013689, 2017.
Karabulut, H., Güvercin, S. E., Eskikoÿ, F., Konca, A. Ö., and
Ergintav, S.: The moderate size 2019 September Mw 5.8 Silivri earthquake unveils the complexity of the Main Marmara Fault shear zone, Geophys. J. Int., 224, 377–388, https://doi.org/10.1093/gji/ggaa469, 2021.
Kasaya, T., Mitsuzawa, K., Goto, T., Iwase, R., Sayanagi, K., Araki, E.,
Asakawa, K., Mikada, H., Watanabe, T., Takahashi, I., and Nagao, T.: Trial
of Multidisciplinary Observation at an Expandable Sub-Marine Cabled Station
“Off-Hatsushima Island Observatory” in Sagami Bay, Japan, Sensors, 9,
9241–9254, https://doi.org/10.3390/s91109241, 2009.
Khripounoff, A., Crassous, P., Lo Bue, N., Dennielou, B., and Silva Jacinto,
R.: Different types of sediment gravity flows detected in the Var submarine
canyon (northwestern Mediterranean Sea), Prog. Oceanogr., 106, 138–153, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pocean.2012.09.001, 2012.
Le Pichon, X., Şengör, A. M. C., Demirbağ, E., Rangin, C.,
İmren, C., Armijo, R., Görür, N., Çağatay, N., Mercier
de Lepinay, B., Meyer, B., Saatçılar, R., and Tok, B.: The active Main
Marmara Fault, Earth Planet. Sc. Lett., 192, 595–616, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0012-821X(01)00449-6, 2001.
Le Pichon, X., Chamot-Roooke, N., Rangin, C., and Sengör, A. M. C.: The
North Anatolian fault in the Sea of Marmara, J. Geophys. Res., 108, 2179, https://doi.org/10.1029/2002JB001862, 2003.
Liu, J. T., Wang, Y.-H., Yang, R. J., Hsu, R. T., Kao, S.-J., Lin, H.-L.,
and Kuo, F. H.: Cyclone-induced hyperpycnal turbidity currents in a submarine canyon, J. Geophys. Res.-Oceans, 117, C04033, https://doi.org/10.1029/2011JC007630, 2012.
McDougall T. J. and Barker, P. M.: Getting started with TEOS-10 and the Gibbs Seawater (GSW) Oceanographic Toolbox, SCOR/IAPSO WG127, 28 pp., ISBN 978-0-646-55621-5, 2011.
McDougall, T. J., Feistel, R., and Pawlowicz, R.: Thermodynamics of
Seawater, in: International Geophysics, Vol. 103, 2nd Edn., Elsevier Ltd., 141–158, https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-12-391851-2.00006-4, 2013.
McHugh, C. M., Seeber, L., Braudy, N., Cormier, M. H., Davis, M. B., Diebold, J. B., Dieudonne, N., Douilly, R., Gulick, S. P. S., Hornbach, M. J., Johnson, H. E., Mishkin, K. R., Sorlien, C. C., Steckler, M. S., Symithe, S. J., and Templeton, J.: Offshore sedimentary effects of the 12 January 2010 Haiti earthquake, Geology, 39 723–726, https://doi.org/10.1130/G31815.1, 2011.
McHugh, C. M. G., Seeber, L., Cormier, M. H., Dutton, J., Cagatay, N., Polonia, A., Ryan, W. B. F., and Gorur, N.: Submarine earthquake geology
along the North Anatolia Fault in the Marmara Sea, Turkey: A model for
transform basin sedimentation, Earth Planet. Sc. Lett., 248, 661–684, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epsl.2006.05.038, 2006.
McHugh, C. M. G., Braudy, N., Çağatay, M. N., Sorlien, C., Cormier,
M.-H., Seeber, L., and Henry, P.: Seafloor fault ruptures along the North
Anatolia Fault in the Marmara Sea, Turkey: Link with the adjacent basin
turbidite record, Mar. Geol., 353, 65–83, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.margeo.2014.03.005, 2014.
Mikada, H., Mitsuzawa, K., Matsumoto, H., Watanabe, T., Morita, S., Otsuka,
R., Sugioka, H., Baba, T., Araki, E., and Suyehiro, K.: New discoveries in
dynamics of an M8 earthquake-phenomena and their implications from the 2003 Tokachi-oki earthquake using a long term monitoring cabled observatory,
Tectonophysics, 426, 95–105, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tecto.2006.02.021, 2006.
Mountjoy, J. J., Howarth, J. D., Orpin, A. R., Barnes, P. M., Bowden, D. A.,
Rowden, A. A., Schimel, A. C. G., Holden, C., Horgan, H. J., Nodder, S. D.,
Patton, J. R., Lamarche, G., Gerstenberger, M., Micallef, A., Pallentin, A.,
and Kane, T.: Earthquakes drive large-scale submarine canyon development and
sediment supply to deep-ocean basins, Sci. Adv., 4, 1–9, https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aar3748, 2018.
Mulder, T. and Cochonnat, P.: Classification of Offshore Mass Movements, J. Sediment. Res., 66, 43–57, https://doi.org/10.1306/D42682AC-2B26-11D7-8648000102C1865D, 1996.
Mulder, T., Syvitski, J. P. M., Migeon, S., Faugères, J.-C., and Savoye,
B.: Marine hyperpycnal flows: initiation, behavior and related deposits. A
review, Mar. Petrol. Geol., 20, 861–882, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.marpetgeo.2003.01.003, 2003.
Nakajima, T. and Kanai, Y.: Sedimentary features of seismoturbidites triggered by the 1983 and older historical earthquakes in the eastern margin
of the Japan Sea, Sediment. Geol., 135, 1–19, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0037-0738(00)00059-2, 2000.
Normandeau, A., Bourgault, D., Neumeier, U., Lajeunesse, P., St-Onge, G.,
Gostiaux, L., and Chavanne, C.: Storm-induced turbidity currents on a
sediment-starved shelf: Insight from direct monitoring and repeat seabed
mapping of upslope migrating bedforms, Sedimentology, 67, 1045–1068,
https://doi.org/10.1111/sed.12673, 2020.
Okal, E. A. and Synolakis, C. E.: Comment on “Origin of the 17 July 1998
Papua New Guinea Tsunami: Earthquake or Landslide?” by E. L. Geist, Seismol. Res. Lett., 72, 362–366, https://doi.org/10.1785/gssrl.72.3.362, 2001.
Özeren, M. S., Çagatay, M. N., Postacioglu, N., Şengör, a.
M. C., Görür, N., and Eriş, K.: Mathematical modelling of a
potential tsunami associated with a late glacial submarine landslide in the
Sea of Marmara, Geo-Mar. Lett., 30, 523–539, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00367-010-0191-1, 2010.
Palanques, A., Guillén, J., Puig, P., and Durrieu de Madron, X.:
Storm-driven shelf-to-canyon suspended sediment transport at the southwestern Gulf of Lions, Cont. Shelf Res., 28, 1947–1956, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.csr.2008.03.020, 2008.
Parker, G.: Conditions for the ignition of catastrophically erosive turbidity currents, Mar. Geol., 46, 307–327, https://doi.org/10.1016/0025-3227(82)90086-X, 1982.
Paull, C. K., Talling, P. J., Maier, K. L., Parsons, D., Xu, J., Caress, D.
W., Gwiazda, R., Lundsten, E. M., Anderson, K., Barry, J. P., Chaffey, M.,
O'Reilly, T., Rosenberger, K. J., Gales, J. A., Kieft, B., McGann, M., Simmons, S. M., McCann, M., Sumner, E. J., Clare, M. A., and Cartigny, M.
J.: Powerful turbidity currents driven by dense basal layers, Nat. Commun.,
9, 1–9, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-018-06254-6, 2018.
Piper, D. J. W. and Normark, W. R.: Processes That Initiate Turbidity Currents and Their Influence on Turbidites: A Marine Geology Perspective, J. Sediment. Res., 79, 347–362, https://doi.org/10.2110/jsr.2009.046, 2009.
Piper, D. J. W., Cochonat, P., and Morrison, M. L.: The sequence of events
around the epicentre of the 1929 Grand Banks earthquake: initiation of debris flows and turbidity current inferred from sidescan sonar, Sedimentology, 46, 79–97, https://doi.org/10.1046/j.1365-3091.1999.00204.x, 1999.
Polonia, A., Vaiani, S. C., and De Lange, G. J.: Did the A.D. 365 Crete
earthquake/tsunami trigger synchronous giant turbidity currents in the
Mediterranean Sea?, Geology, 44, 191–194, https://doi.org/10.1130/G37486.1, 2016.
Polonia, A., Nelson, C. H., Romano, S., Vaiani, S. C., Colizza, E., Gasparotto, G., and Gasperini, L.: A depositional model for seismo-turbidites in confined basins based on Ionian Sea deposits, Mar. Geol., 384, 177–198, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.margeo.2016.05.010, 2017.
Pope, E. L., Talling, P. J., and Carter, L.: Which earthquakes trigger damaging submarine mass movements: Insights from a global record of submarine cable breaks?, Mar. Geol., 384, 131–146, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.margeo.2016.01.009, 2017.
Puig, P., Ogston, A. S., Mullenbach, B. L., Nittrouer, C. A., Parsons, J.
D., and Sternberg, R. W.: Storm-induced sediment gravity flows at the head
of the Eel submarine canyon, northern California margin, J. Geophys. Res.-Oceans, 109, 1–10, https://doi.org/10.1029/2003JC001918, 2004.
Şengör, A. M. C., Grall, C., İmren, C., Le Pichon, X.,
Görür, N., Henry, P., Karabulut, H., and Siyako, M.: The geometry of
the North Anatolian transform fault in the Sea of Marmara and its temporal
evolution: implications for the development of intracontinental transform
faults, Can. J. Earth Sci., 51, 222–242, https://doi.org/10.1139/cjes-2013-0160, 2014.
Synolakis, C. E., Bardet, J.-P., Borrero, J. C., Davies, H. L., Okal, E. A.,
Silver, E. A., Sweet, S., and Tappin, D. R.: The slump origin of the 1998 Papua New Guinea Tsunami, P. Roy. Soc. Lond. A, 458, 763–789,
https://doi.org/10.1098/rspa.2001.0915, 2002.
Talling, P. J.: Fidelity of turbidites as earthquake records, Nat. Geosci., 14, 113–116, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-021-00707-2, 2021.
Talling, P. J., Masson, D. G., Sumner, E. J., and Malgesini, G.: Subaqueous
sediment density flows: Depositional processes and deposit types, Sedimentology, 59, 1937–2003, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-3091.2012.01353.x, 2012.
Xu, J. P., Noble, M. A., and Rosenfeld, L. K.: In-situ measurements of
velocity structure within turbidity currents, Geophys. Res. Lett., 31, L09311, https://doi.org/10.1029/2004GL019718, 2004.
Xu, J. P., Swarzenski, P. W., Noble, M., and Li, A.-C.: Event-driven sediment flux in Hueneme and Mugu submarine canyons, southern California, Mar. Geol., 269, 74–88, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.margeo.2009.12.007, 2010.
Yakupoğlu, N., Uçarkuş, G., Kadir Eriş, K., Henry, P., and
Namık Çağatay, M.: Sedimentological and geochemical evidence for
seismoturbidite generation in the Kumburgaz Basin, Sea of Marmara: Implications for earthquake recurrence along the Central High Segment of the
North Anatolian Fault, Sediment. Geol., 380, 31–44, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.sedgeo.2018.11.002, 2019.
Zitter, T. A. C., Grall, C., Henry, P., Özeren, M. S., Çağatay,
M. N., Şengör, A. M. C., Gasperini, L., de Lépinay, B. M., and
Géli, L.: Distribution, morphology and triggers of submarine mass
wasting in the Sea of Marmara, Mar. Geol., 329–331, 58–74, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.margeo.2012.09.002, 2012.
Short summary
Seafloor instruments at the bottom of the Sea of Marmara recorded disturbances caused by earthquakes, addressing the minimum magnitude that may be recorded in the sediment. A magnitude 4.7 earthquake caused turbidity but little current. A magnitude 5.8 earthquake caused a mudflow and strong currents that spread sediment on the seafloor over several kilometers. However, most known earthquake deposits in the Sea of Marmara spread over larger zones and should correspond to larger earthquakes.
Seafloor instruments at the bottom of the Sea of Marmara recorded disturbances caused by...
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint