Articles | Volume 22, issue 10
Research article
14 Oct 2022
Research article |  | 14 Oct 2022

Assessing minimum pyroclastic density current mass to impact critical infrastructures: example from Aso caldera (Japan)

Andrea Bevilacqua, Alvaro Aravena, Willy Aspinall, Antonio Costa, Sue Mahony, Augusto Neri, Stephen Sparks, and Brittain Hill

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Cited articles

Ababei, D.: UNINET, Software designed by the Risk and Environmental Modeling Group, Delft University of Technology, Lighttwist Software, Fitzroy North, Vic., Australia, (last access: 4 January 2019), 2016. 
Allen, S. R. and Cas, R. A.: Transport of pyroclastic flows across the sea during the explosive, rhyolitic eruption of the Kos Plateau Tuff, Greece, Bull. Volcanol., 62, 441–456,, 2001. 
Aoki, K.: Revised age and distribution of ca. 87 ka Aso-4 tephra based on new evidence from the northwest Pacific Ocean, Quatern. Int., 178, 100–118,, 2008. 
Aravena, A.: AlvaroAravena/BoxMapProb: BoxMapProb (v2.0), Zenodo [code],, 2022. 
Aravena, A., Cioni, R., Bevilacqua, A., de' Michieli Vitturi, M., Esposti Ongaro, T., and Neri, A.: Tree-branching-based enhancement of kinetic energy models for reproducing channelization processes of pyroclastic density currents, J. Geophys. Res.-Solid, 125, e2019JB019271,, 2020. 
Short summary
We evaluate through first-order kinetic energy models, the minimum volume and mass of a pyroclastic density current generated at the Aso caldera that might affect any of five distal infrastructure sites. These target sites are all located 115–145 km from the caldera, but in well-separated directions. Our constraints of volume and mass are then compared with the scale of Aso-4, the largest caldera-forming eruption of Aso.
Final-revised paper