Articles | Volume 22, issue 10
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3143-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3143-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
06 Oct 2022
Research article |
| 06 Oct 2022
| 06 Oct 2022
The 2017 Split wildfire in Croatia: evolution and the role of meteorological conditions
Ivana Čavlina Tomašević
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
School of Natural Sciences, Faculty of Science and Engineering,
Macquarie University, Sydney, NSW 2109, Australia
Croatian Meteorological and Hydrological Service, Ravnice 48, 10 000 Zagreb, Croatia
Department of Geophysics, Faculty of Science, University of Zagreb,
Horvatovac 95, 10 000 Zagreb, Croatia
Kevin K. W. Cheung
E-Complexity Consultant, Eastwood, NSW 2122, Australia
Višnjica Vučetić
Croatian Meteorological and Hydrological Service, Ravnice 48, 10 000 Zagreb, Croatia
Paul Fox-Hughes
Bureau of Meteorology, Level 5, 111 Macquarie St., Hobart, TAS 7001,
Australia
Kristian Horvath
Croatian Meteorological and Hydrological Service, Ravnice 48, 10 000 Zagreb, Croatia
Maja Telišman Prtenjak
Department of Geophysics, Faculty of Science, University of Zagreb,
Horvatovac 95, 10 000 Zagreb, Croatia
Paul J. Beggs
School of Natural Sciences, Faculty of Science and Engineering,
Macquarie University, Sydney, NSW 2109, Australia
Barbara Malečić
Department of Geophysics, Faculty of Science, University of Zagreb,
Horvatovac 95, 10 000 Zagreb, Croatia
Velimir Milić
Croatian Meteorological and Hydrological Service, Ravnice 48, 10 000 Zagreb, Croatia
Related authors
Ivana Čavlina Tomašević, Paul Fox-Hughes, Kevin Cheung, Višnjica Vučetić, Jon Marsden-Smedley, Paul Beggs, and Maja Telišman Prtenjak
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-210, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-210, 2024
Manuscript not accepted for further review
Short summary
Short summary
We have analyzed a severe wildfire event in Tasmania, Australia that also developed thunderstorm clouds. The drivers of this compound hazard were highly complex, which included climatic factors (above normal heavy rain seasons followed by heatwave), weather systems (fronts and high winds) to heighten fire severity and unstable atmosphere to develop thunderstorm clouds, all in coincidence. Such event has demonstrated the difficulty to assess wildfire risk in a warming climate.
Ivana Čavlina Tomašević, Paul Fox-Hughes, Kevin Cheung, Višnjica Vučetić, Jon Marsden-Smedley, Paul Beggs, and Maja Telišman Prtenjak
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-210, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-210, 2024
Manuscript not accepted for further review
Short summary
Short summary
We have analyzed a severe wildfire event in Tasmania, Australia that also developed thunderstorm clouds. The drivers of this compound hazard were highly complex, which included climatic factors (above normal heavy rain seasons followed by heatwave), weather systems (fronts and high winds) to heighten fire severity and unstable atmosphere to develop thunderstorm clouds, all in coincidence. Such event has demonstrated the difficulty to assess wildfire risk in a warming climate.
Chun-Hsu Su, Nathan Eizenberg, Dörte Jakob, Paul Fox-Hughes, Peter Steinle, Christopher J. White, and Charmaine Franklin
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 4357–4378, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-4357-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-4357-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The Bureau of Meteorology Atmospheric Regional Reanalysis for Australia (BARRA) has produced a very high-resolution reconstruction of Australian historical weather from 1990 to 2018. This paper demonstrates the added weather and climate information to supplement coarse- or moderate-resolution regional and global reanalyses. The new climate data can allow greater understanding of past weather, including extreme events, at very local kilometre scales.
Frederik Wolf, Ugur Ozturk, Kevin Cheung, and Reik V. Donner
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 295–312, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-295-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-295-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Motivated by a lacking onset prediction scheme, we examine the temporal evolution of synchronous heavy rainfall associated with the East Asian Monsoon System employing a network approach. We find, that the evolution of the Baiu front is associated with the formation of a spatially separated double band of synchronous rainfall. Furthermore, we identify the South Asian Anticyclone and the North Pacific Subtropical High as the main drivers, which have been assumed to be independent previously.
Mercy N. Ndalila, Grant J. Williamson, Paul Fox-Hughes, Jason Sharples, and David M. J. S. Bowman
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1497–1511, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1497-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1497-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We analyse the evolution of a pyrocumulonimbus (pyroCb), or fire-induced thunderstorm, during the Forcett–Dunalley fire on 4 January 2013 and relate it to the prevailing fire weather and fire severity patterns. We show that the pyroCb reached an altitude of 15 km, was associated with elevated fire weather, and formed over a severely burned area. Additionally, we show that eastern Tasmania is prone to elevated fire weather which has implications for fire weather forecasting and fire management.
Chun-Hsu Su, Nathan Eizenberg, Peter Steinle, Dörte Jakob, Paul Fox-Hughes, Christopher J. White, Susan Rennie, Charmaine Franklin, Imtiaz Dharssi, and Hongyan Zhu
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 2049–2068, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-2049-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-2049-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
The Bureau of Meteorology Atmospheric Regional Reanalysis for Australia (BARRA) is the first regional reanalysis for Australia, NZ, and SE Asia. It offers realistic depictions of near-surface meteorology at a scale required for emergency services, defence, and other major sectors such as energy and agriculture. It uses a consistent method of analysing the atmosphere, with a higher-resolution model over 1990 to 2018, and can provide greater understanding of past weather, including extreme events.
Branka Ivančan-Picek, Martina Tudor, Kristian Horvath, Antonio Stanešić, and Stjepan Ivatek-Šahdan
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 2657–2682, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-2657-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-2657-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
In this paper an overview of the IOPs that affected the Adriatic area during SOP1 HyMeX campaign is presented. Results in this paper highlight the need for an intensive observation period in the future over the Adriatic region. The aim is to better understand the relevant processes and validate the simulated mechanisms as well as to improve numerical forecasts via data assimilation and improvements of model representation of moist processes and sea–land–atmosphere interactions.
Related subject area
Other Hazards (e.g., Glacial and Snow Hazards, Karst, Wildfires Hazards, and Medical Geo-Hazards)
Supershear crack propagation in snow slab avalanche release: new insights from numerical simulations and field measurements
The effect of slab touchdown on anticrack arrest in propagation saw tests
Proglacial lake development and outburst flood hazard at Fjallsjökull glacier, southeast Iceland
Assessing the performance and explainability of an avalanche danger forecast model
Development of operational decision support tools for mechanized ski guiding using avalanche terrain modeling, GPS tracking, and machine learning
Causes, consequences and implications of the 2023 landslide-induced Lake Rasac glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF), Cordillera Huayhuash, Peru
The Avalanche Terrain Exposure Scale (ATES) v.2
Review article: A scoping review of human factors in avalanche decision-making
A quantitative module of avalanche hazard – comparing forecaster assessments of storm and persistent slab avalanche problems with information derived from distributed snowpack simulations
Modelling current and future forest fire susceptibility in north-eastern Germany
The effect of propagation saw test geometries on critical cut length
Statistical calibration of probabilistic medium-range Fire Weather Index forecasts in Europe
Failure of Marmolada Glacier (Dolomites, Italy) in 2022: Data-based back analysis of possible collapse mechanisms as related to recent morpho-climatic evolution and possible trigger factors
Seismic Signal Classification of Snow Avalanches using Distributed Acoustic Sensing in Grasdalen, Western Norway
Glide-snow avalanches: a mechanical, threshold-based release area model
Improving fire severity prediction in south-eastern Australia using vegetation-specific information
Forecasting avalanche danger: human-made forecasts vs. fully automated model-driven predictions
How hard do avalanche practitioners tap during snow stability tests?
A large-scale validation of snowpack simulations in support of avalanche forecasting focusing on critical layers
Review article: Understanding the placement of fire emissions from the Brazilian Cerrado biome in the atmospheric carbon budget
A glacial lake outburst flood risk assessment for the Phochhu river basin, Bhutan
AutoATES v2.0: Automated Avalanche Terrain Exposure Scale mapping
Modelling the vulnerability of urban settings to wildland–urban interface fires in Chile
Modeling of indoor 222Rn in data-scarce regions: an interactive dashboard approach for Bogotá, Colombia
Simulation of cold powder avalanches considering daily snowpack and weather situations to enhance road safety
A regional early warning for slushflow hazard
A new approach for drought index adjustment to clay-shrinkage-induced subsidence over France: advantages of the interactive leaf area index
Automated Avalanche Terrain Exposure Scale (ATES) mapping – local validation and optimization in western Canada
An Efficient Method to Simulate Wildfire Propagation Using Irregular Grids
Improving the fire weather index system for peatlands using peat-specific hydrological input data
Brief communication: The Lahaina Fire disaster – how models can be used to understand and predict wildfires
Prediction of natural dry-snow avalanche activity using physics-based snowpack simulations
Early warning system for ice collapses and river blockages in the Sedongpu Valley, southeastern Tibetan Plateau
Fire risk modeling: an integrated and data-driven approach applied to Sicily
Avalanche size estimation and avalanche outline determination by experts: reliability and implications for practice
Fluid conduits and shallow-reservoir structure defined by geoelectrical tomography at the Nirano Salse (Italy)
Estimating the effects of meteorology and land cover on fire growth in Peru using a novel difference equation model
Review article: Snow and ice avalanches in high mountain Asia – scientific, local and indigenous knowledge
Reduced-order digital twin and latent data assimilation for global wildfire prediction
A user perspective on the avalanche danger scale – insights from North America
Characterizing the rate of spread of large wildfires in emerging fire environments of northwestern Europe using Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite active fire data
Evaluation of low-cost Raspberry Pi sensors for structure-from-motion reconstructions of glacier calving fronts
Temporal evolution of crack propagation characteristics in a weak snowpack layer: conditions of crack arrest and sustained propagation
A data-driven model for Fennoscandian wildfire danger
Equivalent hazard magnitude scale
Statistical modelling of air quality impacts from individual forest fires in New South Wales, Australia
Drivers of extreme burnt area in Portugal: fire weather and vegetation
Coupling wildfire spread simulations and connectivity analysis for hazard assessment: a case study in Serra da Cabreira, Portugal
Glacial lake outburst flood hazard under current and future conditions: worst-case scenarios in a transboundary Himalayan basin
What weather variables are important for wet and slab avalanches under a changing climate in a low-altitude mountain range in Czechia?
Grégoire Bobillier, Bertil Trottet, Bastian Bergfeld, Ron Simenhois, Alec van Herwijnen, Jürg Schweizer, and Johan Gaume
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 2215–2223, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-2215-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-2215-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Our study investigates the initiation of snow slab avalanches. Combining experimental data with numerical simulations, we show that on gentle slopes, cracks form and propagate due to compressive fractures within a weak layer. On steeper slopes, crack velocity can increase dramatically after approximately 5 m due to a fracture mode transition from compression to shear. Understanding these dynamics provides a crucial missing piece in the puzzle of dry-snow slab avalanche formation.
Philipp L. Rosendahl, Johannes Schneider, Grégoire Bobillier, Florian Rheinschmidt, Bastian Bergfeld, Alec van Herwijnen, and Philipp Weißgraeber
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1975–1991, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1975-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1975-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Avalanche formation depends on crack propagation in weak snow layers, but the conditions that stop a crack remain unclear. We show that slab touchdown reduces the energy driving crack growth, which can halt propagation even under static conditions. This suggests that crack arrest is influenced not only by snowpack variability or dynamics but also by mechanical interactions within the snowpack. Our findings refine avalanche prediction models and improve hazard assessment.
Greta H. Wells, Þorsteinn Sæmundsson, Finnur Pálsson, Guðfinna Aðalgeirsdóttir, Eyjólfur Magnússon, Reginald L. Hermanns, and Snævarr Guðmundsson
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1913–1936, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1913-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1913-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Glacier retreat elevates the risk of landslides released into proglacial lakes, which can trigger glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs). This study maps proglacial lake evolution and GLOF hazard scenarios at Fjallsjökull glacier, Iceland. Lake volume increased from 1945 to 2021 and is estimated to triple over the next century. Three slopes are prone to landslides that may trigger GLOFs. Results will mitigate flood hazard at this popular tourism site and advance GLOF research in Iceland and globally.
Cristina Pérez-Guillén, Frank Techel, Michele Volpi, and Alec van Herwijnen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1331–1351, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1331-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1331-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This study assesses the performance and explainability of a random-forest classifier for predicting dry-snow avalanche danger levels during initial live testing. The model achieved ∼ 70 % agreement with human forecasts, performing equally well in nowcast and forecast modes, while capturing the temporal dynamics of avalanche forecasting. The explainability approach enhances the transparency of the model's decision-making process, providing a valuable tool for operational avalanche forecasting.
John Sykes, Pascal Haegeli, Roger Atkins, Patrick Mair, and Yves Bühler
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1255–1292, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1255-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1255-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We model the decision-making of professional ski guides and develop decision support tools to assist with determining appropriate terrain based on current conditions. Our approach compares a manually constructed Bayesian network with machine learning classification models. The models accurately capture the real-world decision-making outcomes in 85–93 % of cases. Our conclusions focus on strengths and weaknesses of each model and discuss ramifications for practical applications in ski guiding.
Adam Emmer, Oscar Vilca, Cesar Salazar Checa, Sihan Li, Simon Cook, Elena Pummer, Jan Hrebrina, and Wilfried Haeberli
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1207–1228, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1207-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1207-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We describe in detail the most recent large landslide-triggered glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF) in the Peruvian Andes (the 2023 Rasac GLOF), analysing its preconditions and consequences, as well as the role of the changing climate. Our study contributes to understanding GLOF occurrence patterns in space and time and corroborates reports detailing the increasing frequency of such events in changing mountains.
Grant Statham and Cam Campbell
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1113–1137, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1113-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1113-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The Avalanche Terrain Exposure Scale (ATES) is an avalanche terrain rating system used for terrain assessment and risk communication in public and workplace avalanche safety practices. This paper introduces ATES v.2, an update that expands the original scale from three levels to five by including Class 0 – Non-avalanche terrain and Class 4 – Extreme terrain. The updated models for assessment and communication are described in detail, along with guidance for the application of ATES.
Audun Hetland, Rebecca A. Hetland, Tarjei Tveito Skille, and Andrea Mannberg
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 929–948, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-929-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-929-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Research on human factors in avalanche decision-making has become increasingly popular in the past 2 decades. The studies span a wide range of disciplines and are published in a variety of journals. To provide an overview of this literature, this study provides a systematic scoping review of human factors in avalanche decision-making. A total of 70 papers fulfilled the search criteria. We extracted data and sorted the papers according to their main themes.
Florian Herla, Pascal Haegeli, Simon Horton, and Patrick Mair
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 625–646, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-625-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-625-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We present a spatial framework for extracting information about avalanche problems from detailed snowpack simulations and compare the numerical results against operational assessments from avalanche forecasters. Despite good agreement in seasonal summary statistics, a comparison of daily assessments revealed considerable differences, while it remained unclear which data source represented reality the best. We discuss how snowpack simulations can add value to the forecasting process.
Katharina H. Horn, Stenka Vulova, Hanyu Li, and Birgit Kleinschmit
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 383–401, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-383-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-383-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
In this study we applied a random forest machine learning algorithm to model current and future forest fire susceptibility (FFS) in north-eastern Germany using anthropogenic, climatic, topographic, soil, and vegetation variables. Model accuracy ranged between 69 % and 71 %, showing moderately high model reliability for predicting FFS. The model results underline the importance of anthropogenic and vegetation parameters. This study will support regional forest fire prevention and management.
Bastian Bergfeld, Karl W. Birkeland, Valentin Adam, Philipp L. Rosendahl, and Alec van Herwijnen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 321–334, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-321-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-321-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
To release a slab avalanche, a crack in a weak snow layer beneath a cohesive slab has to propagate. Information on that is essential for assessing avalanche risk. In the field, information can be gathered with the propagation saw test (PST). However, there are different standards on how to cut the PST. In this study, we experimentally investigate the effect of these different column geometries and provide models to correct for imprecise field test geometry effects on the critical cut length.
Stephanie Bohlmann and Marko Laine
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4225–4235, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4225-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4225-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Probabilistic ensemble forecasts of the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index (FWI) can be used to estimate the possible wildfire risk but require post-processing to provide accurate and reliable predictions. This article presents a calibration method using non-homogeneous Gaussian regression to statistically post-process FWI forecasts up to 15 d. Calibration improves the forecast especially at short lead times and in regions with high fire risk.
Roberto Giovanni Francese, Roberto Valentino, Wilfried Haeberli, Aldino Bondesan, Massimo Giorgi, Stefano Picotti, Franco Pettenati, Denis Sandron, Gianni Ramponi, and Mauro Valt
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-212, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-212, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
The deadly collapse of the Marmolada Glacier in Italy in July 2022, is part of a global trend of rapid glacial retreat due to climate change. The event was influenced by permafrost degradation and abnormal warming. Historical data, geophysical surveys, and numerical simulations were used to analyze the collapse. Ice fracturing, water infiltration, and basal lubrication were key contributors. Predicting glacier instability is rather complex but monitoring is vital to cope with the hazard.
Franz Kleine, Charlotte Bruland, Andreas Wüstefeld, Volker Oye, and Martin Landrø
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-202, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-202, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
We used a fiber optic cable along a road in western Norway to study snow avalanches signals. Our study shows that avalanches create distinct signals in the 20–50 Hz frequency range, with larger ones having weak early warning signals. However, road traffic interference complicates automatic detection. This research highlights the potential of using existing infrastructure for avalanche monitoring. Further improvements are needed for automated detection.
Amelie Fees, Alec van Herwijnen, Michael Lombardo, Jürg Schweizer, and Peter Lehmann
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3387–3400, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3387-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3387-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Glide-snow avalanches release at the ground–snow interface, and their release process is poorly understood. To investigate the influence of spatial variability (snowpack and basal friction) on avalanche release, we developed a 3D, mechanical, threshold-based model that reproduces an observed release area distribution. A sensitivity analysis showed that the distribution was mostly influenced by the basal friction uniformity, while the variations in snowpack properties had little influence.
Kang He, Xinyi Shen, Cory Merow, Efthymios Nikolopoulos, Rachael V. Gallagher, Feifei Yang, and Emmanouil N. Anagnostou
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3337–3355, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3337-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3337-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
A framework combining a fire severity classification with a regression model to predict an indicator of fire severity derived from Landsat imagery (difference normalized burning ratio, dNBR) is proposed. The results show that the proposed predictive technique is capable of providing robust fire severity prediction information, which can be used for forecasting seasonal fire severity and, subsequently, impacts on biodiversity and ecosystems under projected future climate conditions.
Frank Techel, Stephanie Mayer, Ross S. Purves, Günter Schmudlach, and Kurt Winkler
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-158, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-158, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
We evaluate fully data- and model-driven predictions of avalanche danger in Switzerland and compare them with human-made avalanche forecasts as a benchmark. We show that model predictions perform similarly to human forecasts calling for a systematic integration of forecast chains into the forecasting process.
Håvard B. Toft, Samuel V. Verplanck, and Markus Landrø
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2757–2772, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2757-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2757-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study investigates inconsistencies in impact force as part of extended column tests (ECTs). We measured force-time curves from 286 practitioners in Scandinavia, Central Europe, and North America. The results show a large variability in peak forces and loading rates across wrist, elbow, and shoulder taps, challenging the ECT's reliability.
Florian Herla, Pascal Haegeli, Simon Horton, and Patrick Mair
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2727–2756, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2727-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2727-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Snowpack simulations are increasingly employed by avalanche warning services to inform about critical avalanche layers buried in the snowpack. However, validity concerns limit their operational value. We present methods that enable meaningful comparisons between snowpack simulations and regional assessments of avalanche forecasters to quantify the performance of the Canadian weather and snowpack model chain to represent thin critical avalanche layers on a large scale and in real time.
Renata Moura da Veiga, Celso von Randow, Chantelle Burton, Douglas Kelley, Manoel Cardoso, and Fabiano Morelli
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2348, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2348, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We systematically reviewed 69 papers on fire emissions from the Brazilian Cerrado biome to provide insights into its placement in the atmospheric carbon budget and support future improved estimation. We find that estimating fire emissions in the Cerrado requires a comprehensive approach, combining quantitative and qualitative aspects of fire. A pathway towards this is the inclusion of fire management representation in land surface models and the integration of observational and modelling data.
Tandin Wangchuk and Ryota Tsubaki
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2523–2540, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2523-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2523-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
A glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF) is a natural hazard in which water from a glacier-fed lake is swiftly discharged, causing serious harm to life, infrastructure, and communities. We used numerical models to predict the potential consequences of a GLOF originating from the Thorthomi glacial lake in Bhutan. We found that if a GLOF occurs, the lake could release massive flood water within 4 h, posing a considerable risk. Study findings help to mitigate the impacts of future GLOFs.
Håvard B. Toft, John Sykes, Andrew Schauer, Jordy Hendrikx, and Audun Hetland
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1779–1793, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1779-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1779-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Manual Avalanche Terrain Exposure Scale (ATES) mapping is time-consuming and inefficient for large-scale applications. The updated algorithm for automated ATES mapping overcomes previous limitations by including forest density data, improving the avalanche runout estimations in low-angle runout zones, accounting for overhead exposure and open-source software. Results show that the latest version has significantly improved its performance.
Paula Aguirre, Jorge León, Constanza González-Mathiesen, Randy Román, Manuela Penas, and Alonso Ogueda
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1521–1537, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1521-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1521-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Wildfires pose a significant risk to property located in the wildland–urban interface (WUI). To assess and mitigate this risk, we need to understand which characteristics of buildings and building arrangements make them more prone to damage. We used a combination of data collection and analysis methods to study the vulnerability of dwellings in the WUI for case studies in Chile and concluded that the spatial arrangement of houses has a substantial impact on their vulnerability to wildfires.
Martín Domínguez Durán, María Angélica Sandoval Garzón, and Carme Huguet
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1319–1339, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1319-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1319-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
In this study we created a cost-effective alternative to bridge the baseline information gap on indoor radon (a highly carcinogenic gas) in regions where measurements are scarce. We model indoor radon concentrations to understand its spatial distribution and the potential influential factors. We evaluated the performance of this alternative using a small number of measurements taken in Bogotá, Colombia. Our results show that this alternative could help in the making of future studies and policy.
Julia Glaus, Katreen Wikstrom Jones, Perry Bartelt, Marc Christen, Lukas Stoffel, Johan Gaume, and Yves Bühler
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-771, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-771, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study assesses RAMMS::EXTENDED's predictive power in estimating avalanche run-out distances critical for mountain road safety. Leveraging meteorological data and sensitivity analysis, it offers meaningful predictions, aiding near real-time hazard assessments and future model refinement for improved decision-making.
Monica Sund, Heidi A. Grønsten, and Siv Å. Seljesæter
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1185–1201, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1185-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1185-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Slushflows are rapid mass movements of water-saturated snow released in gently sloping terrain (< 30°), often unexpectedly. Early warning is crucial to prevent casualties and damage to infrastructure. A regional early warning for slushflow hazard was established in Norway in 2013–2014 and has been operational since. We present a methodology using the ratio between water supply and snow depth by snow type to assess slushflow hazard. This approach is useful for other areas with slushflow hazard.
Sophie Barthelemy, Bertrand Bonan, Jean-Christophe Calvet, Gilles Grandjean, David Moncoulon, Dorothée Kapsambelis, and Séverine Bernardie
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 999–1016, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-999-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-999-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This work presents a drought index specifically adapted to subsidence, a seasonal phenomenon of soil shrinkage that occurs frequently in France and damages buildings. The index is computed from land surface model simulations and evaluated by a rank correlation test with insurance data. With its optimal configuration, the index is able to identify years of both zero and significant loss.
John Sykes, Håvard Toft, Pascal Haegeli, and Grant Statham
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 947–971, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-947-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-947-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The research validates and optimizes an automated approach for creating classified snow avalanche terrain maps using open-source geospatial modeling tools. Validation is based on avalanche-expert-based maps for two study areas. Our results show that automated maps have an overall accuracy equivalent to the average accuracy of three human maps. Automated mapping requires a fraction of the time and cost of traditional methods and opens the door for large-scale mapping of mountainous terrain.
Conor Hackett, Rafael de Andrade Moral, Gourav Mishra, Tim McCarthy, and Charles Markham
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-27, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-27, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
This paper reviews existing wildfire propagation models and a comparison of different grid types including random grids to simulate wildfires. This paper finds that irregular grids simulate wildfires more efficiently than continuous models while still retaining a reasonable level of similarity. It also shows that irregular grids tend to retain greater similarity to continuous models than regular grids at the cost of slightly longer computational times.
Jonas Mortelmans, Anne Felsberg, Gabriëlle J. M. De Lannoy, Sander Veraverbeke, Robert D. Field, Niels Andela, and Michel Bechtold
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 445–464, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-445-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-445-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
With global warming increasing the frequency and intensity of wildfires in the boreal region, accurate risk assessments are becoming more crucial than ever before. The Canadian Fire Weather Index (FWI) is a renowned system, yet its effectiveness in peatlands, where hydrology plays a key role, is limited. By incorporating groundwater data from numerical models and satellite observations, our modified FWI improves the accuracy of fire danger predictions, especially over summer.
Timothy W. Juliano, Fernando Szasdi-Bardales, Neil P. Lareau, Kasra Shamsaei, Branko Kosović, Negar Elhami-Khorasani, Eric P. James, and Hamed Ebrahimian
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 47–52, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-47-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-47-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Following the destructive Lahaina Fire in Hawaii, our team has modeled the wind and fire spread processes to understand the drivers of this devastating event. The simulation results show that extreme winds with high variability, a fire ignition close to the community, and construction characteristics led to continued fire spread in multiple directions. Our results suggest that available modeling capabilities can provide vital information to guide decision-making during wildfire events.
Stephanie Mayer, Frank Techel, Jürg Schweizer, and Alec van Herwijnen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3445–3465, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3445-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3445-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We present statistical models to estimate the probability for natural dry-snow avalanche release and avalanche size based on the simulated layering of the snowpack. The benefit of these models is demonstrated in comparison with benchmark models based on the amount of new snow. From the validation with data sets of quality-controlled avalanche observations and danger levels, we conclude that these models may be valuable tools to support forecasting natural dry-snow avalanche activity.
Wei Yang, Zhongyan Wang, Baosheng An, Yingying Chen, Chuanxi Zhao, Chenhui Li, Yongjie Wang, Weicai Wang, Jiule Li, Guangjian Wu, Lin Bai, Fan Zhang, and Tandong Yao
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3015–3029, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3015-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3015-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We present the structure and performance of the early warning system (EWS) for glacier collapse and river blockages in the southeastern Tibetan Plateau. The EWS warned of three collapse–river blockage chain events and seven small-scale events. The volume and location of the collapses and the percentage of ice content influenced the velocities of debris flows. Such a study is helpful for understanding the mechanism of glacier hazards and for establishing similar EWSs in other high-risk regions.
Alba Marquez Torres, Giovanni Signorello, Sudeshna Kumar, Greta Adamo, Ferdinando Villa, and Stefano Balbi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2937–2959, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2937-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2937-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Only by mapping fire risks can we manage forest and prevent fires under current and future climate conditions. We present a fire risk map based on k.LAB, artificial-intelligence-powered and open-source software integrating multidisciplinary knowledge in near real time. Through an easy-to-use web application, we model the hazard with 84 % accuracy for Sicily, a representative Mediterranean region. Fire risk analysis reveals 45 % of vulnerable areas face a high probability of danger in 2050.
Elisabeth D. Hafner, Frank Techel, Rodrigo Caye Daudt, Jan Dirk Wegner, Konrad Schindler, and Yves Bühler
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2895–2914, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2895-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2895-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Oftentimes when objective measurements are not possible, human estimates are used instead. In our study, we investigate the reproducibility of human judgement for size estimates, the mappings of avalanches from oblique photographs and remotely sensed imagery. The variability that we found in those estimates is worth considering as it may influence results and should be kept in mind for several applications.
Gerardo Romano, Marco Antonellini, Domenico Patella, Agata Siniscalchi, Andrea Tallarico, Simona Tripaldi, and Antonello Piombo
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2719–2735, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2719-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2719-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The Nirano Salse (northern Apennines, Italy) is characterized by several active mud vents and hosts thousands of visitors every year. New resistivity models describe the area down to 250 m, improving our geostructural knowledge of the area and giving useful indications for a better understanding of mud volcano dynamics and for the better planning of safer tourist access to the area.
Harry Podschwit, William Jolly, Ernesto Alvarado, Andrea Markos, Satyam Verma, Sebastian Barreto-Rivera, Catherine Tobón-Cruz, and Blanca Ponce-Vigo
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2607–2624, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2607-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2607-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We developed a model of fire spread that assumes that fire spreads in all directions at a constant speed and is extinguished at a constant rate. The model was fitted to 1003 fires in Peru between 2001 and 2020 using satellite burned area data from the GlobFire project. We fitted statistical models that predicted the spread and extinguish rates based on weather and land cover variables and found that these variables were good predictors of the spread and extinguish rates.
Anushilan Acharya, Jakob F. Steiner, Khwaja Momin Walizada, Salar Ali, Zakir Hussain Zakir, Arnaud Caiserman, and Teiji Watanabe
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2569–2592, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2569-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2569-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
All accessible snow and ice avalanches together with previous scientific research, local knowledge, and existing or previously active adaptation and mitigation solutions were investigated in the high mountain Asia (HMA) region to have a detailed overview of the state of knowledge and identify gaps. A comprehensive avalanche database from 1972–2022 is generated, including 681 individual events. The database provides a basis for the forecasting of avalanche hazards in different parts of HMA.
Caili Zhong, Sibo Cheng, Matthew Kasoar, and Rossella Arcucci
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1755–1768, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1755-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1755-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This paper introduces a digital twin fire model using machine learning techniques to improve the efficiency of global wildfire predictions. The proposed model also manages to efficiently adjust the prediction results thanks to data assimilation techniques. The proposed digital twin runs 500 times faster than the current state-of-the-art physics-based model.
Abby Morgan, Pascal Haegeli, Henry Finn, and Patrick Mair
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1719–1742, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1719-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1719-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The avalanche danger scale is a critical component for communicating the severity of avalanche hazard conditions to the public. We examine how backcountry recreationists in North America understand and use the danger scale for planning trips into the backcountry. Our results provide an important user perspective on the strengths and weaknesses of the existing scale and highlight opportunities for future improvements.
Adrián Cardíl, Victor M. Tapia, Santiago Monedero, Tomás Quiñones, Kerryn Little, Cathelijne R. Stoof, Joaquín Ramirez, and Sergio de-Miguel
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 361–373, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-361-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-361-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This study aims to unravel large-fire behavior in northwest Europe, a temperate region with a projected increase in wildfire risk. We propose a new method to identify wildfire rate of spread from satellites because it is important to know periods of elevated fire risk for suppression methods and land management. Results indicate that there is a peak in the area burned and rate of spread in the months of March and April, and there are significant differences for forest-type land covers.
Liam S. Taylor, Duncan J. Quincey, and Mark W. Smith
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 329–341, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-329-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-329-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Hazards from glaciers are becoming more likely as the climate warms, which poses a threat to communities living beneath them. We have developed a new camera system which can capture regular, high-quality 3D models to monitor small changes in glaciers which could be indicative of a future hazard. This system is far cheaper than more typical camera sensors yet produces very similar quality data. We suggest that deploying these cameras near glaciers could assist in warning communities of hazards.
Bastian Bergfeld, Alec van Herwijnen, Grégoire Bobillier, Philipp L. Rosendahl, Philipp Weißgraeber, Valentin Adam, Jürg Dual, and Jürg Schweizer
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 293–315, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-293-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-293-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
For a slab avalanche to release, the snowpack must facilitate crack propagation over large distances. Field measurements on crack propagation at this scale are very scarce. We performed a series of experiments, up to 10 m long, over a period of 10 weeks. Beside the temporal evolution of the mechanical properties of the snowpack, we found that crack speeds were highest for tests resulting in full propagation. Based on these findings, an index for self-sustained crack propagation is proposed.
Sigrid Jørgensen Bakke, Niko Wanders, Karin van der Wiel, and Lena Merete Tallaksen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 65–89, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-65-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-65-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, we developed a machine learning model to identify dominant controls of wildfire in Fennoscandia and produce monthly fire danger probability maps. The dominant control was shallow-soil water anomaly, followed by air temperature and deep soil water. The model proved skilful with a similar performance as the existing Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index (FWI). We highlight the benefit of using data-driven models jointly with other fire models to improve fire monitoring and prediction.
Yi Victor Wang and Antonia Sebastian
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 4103–4118, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-4103-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-4103-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
In this article, we propose an equivalent hazard magnitude scale and a method to evaluate and compare the strengths of natural hazard events across different hazard types, including earthquakes, tsunamis, floods, droughts, forest fires, tornadoes, cold waves, heat waves, and tropical cyclones. With our method, we determine that both the February 2021 North American cold wave event and Hurricane Harvey in 2017 were equivalent to a magnitude 7.5 earthquake in hazard strength.
Michael A. Storey and Owen F. Price
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 4039–4062, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-4039-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-4039-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Models are needed to understand and predict pollutant output from forest fires so fire agencies can reduce smoke-related risks to human health. We modelled air quality (PM2.5) based on fire area and weather variables. We found fire area and boundary layer height were influential on predictions, with distance, temperature, wind speed and relative humidity also important. The models predicted reasonably accurately in comparison to other existing methods but would benefit from further development.
Tomás Calheiros, Akli Benali, Mário Pereira, João Silva, and João Nunes
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 4019–4037, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-4019-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-4019-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Fire weather indices are used to assess the effect of weather on wildfires. Fire weather risk was computed and combined with large wildfires in Portugal. Results revealed the influence of vegetation cover: municipalities with a prevalence of shrublands, located in eastern parts, burnt under less extreme conditions than those with higher forested areas, situated in coastal regions. These findings are a novelty for fire science in Portugal and should be considered for fire management.
Ana C. L. Sá, Bruno Aparicio, Akli Benali, Chiara Bruni, Michele Salis, Fábio Silva, Martinho Marta-Almeida, Susana Pereira, Alfredo Rocha, and José Pereira
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3917–3938, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3917-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3917-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Assessing landscape wildfire connectivity supported by wildfire spread simulations can improve fire hazard assessment and fuel management plans. Weather severity determines the degree of fuel patch connectivity and thus the potential to spread large and intense wildfires. Mapping highly connected patches in the landscape highlights patch candidates for prior fuel treatments, which ultimately will contribute to creating fire-resilient Mediterranean landscapes.
Simon K. Allen, Ashim Sattar, Owen King, Guoqing Zhang, Atanu Bhattacharya, Tandong Yao, and Tobias Bolch
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3765–3785, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3765-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3765-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This study demonstrates how the threat of a very large outburst from a future lake can be feasibly assessed alongside that from current lakes to inform disaster risk management within a transboundary basin between Tibet and Nepal. Results show that engineering measures and early warning systems would need to be coupled with effective land use zoning and programmes to strengthen local response capacities in order to effectively reduce the risk associated with current and future outburst events.
Markéta Součková, Roman Juras, Kryštof Dytrt, Vojtěch Moravec, Johanna Ruth Blöcher, and Martin Hanel
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3501–3525, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3501-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3501-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Avalanches are natural hazards that threaten people and infrastructure. With climate change, avalanche activity is changing. We analysed the change in frequency and size of avalanches in the Krkonoše Mountains, Czechia, and detected important variables with machine learning tools from 1979–2020. Wet avalanches in February and March have increased, and slab avalanches have decreased and become smaller. The identified variables and their threshold levels may help in avalanche decision-making.
Cited articles
Abatzoglou, J. T., Hatchett, B. J., Fox-Hughes, P., Gershunov, A., and Nauslar, N. J.: Global climatology of synoptically-forced downslope winds, Int. J. Climatol., 41, 1–20, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.6607, 2020.
ALADIN International Team: The ALADIN project: Mesoscale modelling seen as a
basic tool for weather forecasting and atmospheric research, WMO Bull., 46,
317–324, 1997.
Beals, A.: The value of weather forecasts in the problem of protecting
forests from fire, Mon. Weather Rev., 42, 111–119,
https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1914)42<111:TVOWFI>2.0.CO;2,
1914.
Belušić, A., Telišman Prtenjak, M., Güttler, I., Ban, N.,
Leutwyler, D., and Schär, C.: Near-surface wind variability over the broader
Adriatic region: insights from an ensemble of regional climate models, Clim.
Dynam., 50, 4455–4480, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-017-3885-5, 2018.
Bento-Gançalves, A. and Vieira, A.: Wildfires in the wildland-urban
interface: Key concepts and evaluation methodologies, Sci. Total Environ.,
707, 135592, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.135592, 2019.
Bond, H. G., Mackinnon, K., and Noar, P. F.: Report on the meteorological aspects of the catastrophic bushfires in south-eastern Tasmania on 7 February 1967, Bureau of Meteorology, Regional Office, Tasmania, 2544446, 1967.
Bonner, W. D.: Climatology of the low level jet, Mon. Weather Rev., 96, 833–850,
https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1968)096<0833:COTLLJ>2.0.CO;2,
1968.
Brewer, M. J. and Clements, C. B.: The 2018 Camp Fire: Meteorological analysis using in situ observations and numerical simulations, Atmosphere, 11, 47, https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos11010047, 2020.
Brotak, A. E.: A synoptic study of the meteorological conditions associated
with major wildland fires, PhD Thesis, Faculty of the Graduate School, Yale
University, 1977.
Brotak, A. E. and Reifsnyder, W. E.: An investigation of the synoptic situations
associated with major wildland fires, Fire Manag. Today, 38, 867–870,
https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0450(1977)016<0867:AIOTSS>2.0.CO;2,
1977.
Brown, T., Leach, S., Wachter, W., and Gardunio, B.: The Northern California
2018 extreme fire season, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 101, S1–S4,
https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-19-0275.1, 2020.
Bureau of Meteorology (BoM): Meteorological aspects of the 7 February 2009
Victorian fires, an overview, Bureau of Meteorology report for the 2009
Victorian Bushfires Royal Commission, Melbourne, Australia, 2009.
Byram, G. M.: Atmospheric conditions related to blowup fires, Station Paper
SE-SP-35, USDA-Forest Service, Southeastern Forest Experiment Station,
Asheville, 1954.
Cesini, D., Morelli, S., and Parmiggiani, F.: Analysis of an intense bora event in the Adriatic area, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 4, 323–337, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-4-323-2004, 2004.
Charney, J. J., Bian, X., Potter, B., and Heilman, W. E.: The role of a
stratospheric intrusion in the evolution of the Double Trouble State Park
wildfire, in: 5th Symposium on fire and forest meteorology joint with
2nd International wildland fire ecology and fire management congress,
Orlando, P5.3, 16–20 November 2003.
Conedera, M., Marxer P., Hoffmann, C., Tinner, W., and Amman, B.: Forest fire
research in Switzerland. Part 1: Fire ecology and history research in the
Southern part of Switzerland, Int. For. Fire News, 15, 13–21, 1996.
Cruz, M. G., Sullivan, A. L., Gould, J. S., Sims, N. C., Bannister, A. J.,
Hollis, J. J., and Hurley, R. J.: Anatomy of a catastrophic wildfire: The Black
Saturday Kilmore East fire in Victoria, Australia, Forest Ecol. Manag., 284,
269–285, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foreco.2012.02.035, 2012.
Dimitrov, T.: Forest fires and forest fire danger assessment, in: Osnovne zaštite šuma od požara, edited by: Bertović, S., Centar
za informacije i publicitet, Zagreb, 181–256, ISBN 86-7125-016-4, 1982 (in Croatian).
Dowdy, A. J., Fromm, M. D., and McCarthy N.: Pyrocumulonimbus and fire ignition on
Black Saturday in southeast Australia, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 122,
7342–7354, https://doi.org/10.1002/2017JD026577, 2017.
DUZS: Report on the realization of the program of activities in the
implementation of special measures of protection from forest fires in
Republic of Croatia in 2017, National protection and rescue directorate,
Zagreb, 2018 (in Croatian).
Engel, C. B., Lane, T. P., Reeder, M. J., and Rezny, M.: The meteorology of Black
Saturday, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 139, 585–599, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.1986, 2013.
Francetić, N.: We can learn from the Split wildfire, Vatrogasni vjesnik,
8, 14–17, 2017 (in Croatian).
Fromm, M., Tupper, A., Rosenfeld, D., Servranckx, R., and McRae, R.: Violent
pyro-convective storm devastates Australia's capital and pollutes the
stratosphere, Geophys. Res. Lett., 33, L05815, https://doi.org/10.1029/2005GL025161,
2006.
Gohm, A. and Mayr, G. J.: Numerical and observational case-study of a deep
Adriatic bora, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 131, 1363–1392,
https://doi.org/10.1256/qj.04.82, 2005.
Gohm, A., Mayr, G. J., Fix, A., and Giez, A.: On the onset of bora and the
formation of rotors and jumps near a mountain gap, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc.,
134, 21–46, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.206, 2008.
Grisogono, B. and Belušić, D.: A review of recent advances in
understanding the meso- and micro-scale properties of the severe Bora wind,
Tellus A, 61, 1–16,
https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1600-0870.2008.00369.x, 2009.
Grubišić, V.: Bora-driven potential vorticity banners over the
Adriatic, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 130, 2571–2603, https://doi.org/10.1256/qj.03.71,
2004.
Hernandez, C., Drobinski, P., and Turquety, S.: How much does weather control fire size and intensity in the Mediterranean region?, Ann. Geophys., 33, 931–939, https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-33-931-2015, 2015.
Horvath, K., Ivatek-Šahdan, S., Ivančan-Picek, B., and Grubišić,
V.: Evolution and Structure of Two Severe Cyclonic Bora Events: Contrast
between the Northern and Southern Adriatic, Weather Forecast., 24, 946–964,
https://doi.org/10.1175/2009WAF2222174.1, 2009.
Hrastinski, M., Horvath, K., Odak Plenković, I., Ivatek-Šahdan, S.,
and Bajić A.: Verification of the operational 10 m wind forecast obtained
with the ALADIN mesoscale numerical weather prediction model, Croat.
Meteorol. J., 50, 105–120, 2015.
Ivančan-Picek, B., Tudor, M., Horvath, K., Stanešić, A., and Ivatek-Šahdan, S.: Overview of the first HyMeX special observation period over Croatia, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 2657–2682, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-2657-2016, 2016.
Jovanović, N. and Župan, R.: Analysis of vegetation conditions before
and after forest fires in Dalmatia using Sentinel-2 satellite images,
Geod. List, 71, 233–248, 2017.
Jurčec, V.: Severe Adriatic bora storms in relation to synoptic
developments, Rasprave, 24, 11–20, 1989.
Jurčec, V.: Low-level jet stream over the Adriatic area, Vijesti, 1991,
36–41, 1992.
Jurčec, V. and Visković, S.: Causes of bora in Split, Vijesti, 1989,
20–26, 1989.
Kapusta, A. and Wiluś, R.: Geography of Tourism in Croatia, in: The Geography of Tourism of Central and Eastern
European Countries, edited by: Widawski,
K. and Wyrzykowski, J., Springer, Cham, 109–147,
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-42205-3_4, 2017.
Kartsios, S., Karacostas, T., Pytharoulis, I., and Dimitrakopoulos, A. P.:
Numerical investigation of atmosphere-fire interactions during high-impact
wildland fire events in Greece, Atmos. Res., 247, 105253,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2020.105253, 2020.
Kondo, J. and Kuwagata, T.: Enhancement of forest fires over northeastern Japan due to atypical strong dry wind, J. Appl. Meteorol., 31, 386–396,
https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0450(1992)031<0386:EOFFON>2.0.CO;2, 1992.
Kozarić T. and Mokorić, M.: Kvarner fire 23rd and 24 July 2012 –
weather analysis, Firefighting and Management, 2, 53–66, 2012.
Lagouvardos, K., Kotroni, V., Giannaros, T. M., and Dafis, S.: Meteorological
conditions conducive to the rapid spread of the deadly wildfire in Eastern
Attica, Greece, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 100, 2137–2145,
https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-18-0231.1, 2019.
Lepri, P., Večenaj, Ž., Kozmar, H., and Grisogono, B.: Near-ground
turbulence of the Bora wind in summertime, J. Wind Eng. Ind. Aerod., 147,
345–357, https://doi.org/10.12989/was.2014.19.5.505, 2015.
Long, M. : A climatology of extreme fire weather days in Victoria, Aust. Meteorol.
Mag., 55, 3–18, 2006.
Long, R. R.: Some aspects of the flow of stratified fluids. I. A theoretical
investigation, Tellus, 5, 42–58, 1953.
Lydersen, J. M., North, M. P., and Collins, B. M.: Severity of an
uncharacteristically large wildfire, the Rim Fire, in forests with
relatively restored frequent fire regimes, Forest Ecol. Manag., 328,
326–334, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foreco.2014.06.005, 2014.
Mamut, M.: Ties between the geographical and social geographical features of
Dalmatia with the endangerment of forest fires, Croat. J. For. Eng.,
1–2, 37–50, 2011 (in Croatian).
Marsh, L.: Fire weather forecasting in Tasmania, Meteorological Note 171,
Bureau of Meteorology, Adelaide, 1987.
McCarthy, E. F.: Forest fire weather in the southern Appalachians, Mon.
Weather Rev., 51, 182–185, doi:/https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493, 1923.
Mifka, B. and Vučetić, V.: Weather analysis during extreme forest fire
on island of Brač from 14 to 17 July 2011, Firefighting and Management,
1, 13–25, 2012 (in Croatian).
Mills, G. H.: A re-examination of the synoptic and mesoscale meteorology of
Ash Wednesday 1983, Aust. Meteorol. Mag., 54, 35–55, 2005a.
Mills, G. H.: On the sub-synoptic scale meteorology of two extreme fire
weather days during the Eastern Australian fires of January 2003, Aust. Meteorol. Mag., 54, 265–290, 2005b.
Ministry of Tourism: Tourism in numbers 2017, Republic of Croatia, Zagreb,
https://www.htz.hr/sites/default/files/2018-08/HTZ TUB HR_ 2017 FINAL.pdf (last access: 18 August 2022), 2018.
Moreira, F., Viedma, O., Arianoutsou, M., Curt, T., Koutsias, N., Rigolot,
E., Barbati, A., Corona, P., Vaz, P., Xanthopoulos, G., Mouillot, F.,
and Bilgilir, E.: Landscape–wildfire interactions in southern Europe:
implications for landscape management, J. Environ. Manage., 92, 2389–2402,
https://doi.org/10.1016/J.JENVMAN.2011.06.028, 2011.
Pausas, J. G., Llovet J., Rodrigo A., and Vallejo, R.: Are wildfires a disaster
in the Mediterranean basin? – A review, Int. J. Wildland Fire, 17,
713–723, https://doi.org/10.1071/WF07151, 2008.
Peace, M., Matiner, T., Mills, G., Kepert, J., and McCaw, L.: Fire-modified
meteorology in a coupled fire-atmosphere model, J. Appl. Meteorol.
Clim., 54, 704–720, https://doi.org/10.1175/JAMC-D-14-0063.1, 2015.
Pretorius, I., Sturman, A., Strand, T., Katurji, M., and Pearce, G.: A
meteorological study of the Port Hills fire, Christchurch, New Zealand, J.
Appl. Meteorol. Clim., 59, 263–280, https://doi.org/10.1175/jamc-d-19-0223.1,
2020.
Pyne, S. J., Andrews, P. L., and Laven, R. D.: Introduction to Wildland Fire,
second ed., John Wiley & Sons Inc, ISBN 9780471549130, ISBN 0471549134, New York, 1996.
Reeder, M. J., Spengler T., and Musgrave R.: Rossby waves, extreme fronts, and
wildfires in southeastern Australia, Geophys. Res. Lett., 42, 2015–2023,
https://doi.org/10.1002/2015GL063125, 2015.
Ruffault, J., Moron, V., Trigoc R. M., and Curta T.: Short Communication: Daily
synoptic conditions associated with large fire occurrence in Mediterranean
France: evidence for a wind-driven fire regime, Int. J. Climatol., 37,
524–533, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.4680, 2017.
Rundel, P. W., Arroyo, M. T. K., Cowling, R. M., Keeley, J. E., Lamont, B. B., Pausas
J. G., and Vargas, P.: Fire and plant diversification in Mediterranean-climate
regions, Front. Plant. Sci., 9, 851, https://doi.org/10.3389/fpls.2018.00851, 2018.
San-Miguel-Ayanz, J., Moreno, J. M., and Camia, A.: Analysis of large fires in
European Mediterranean landscapes: Lessons learned and perspectives, Forest
Ecol. Manag., 294, 11–22, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foreco.2012.10.050, 2013.
Sanchez-Benítez, A., Garcia-Herrera, R., Barriopedro, D., Sousa, P. M.,
and Trigo, R. M.: June 2017: The Earliest European Summer Mega-heatwave of
Reanalysis Period, Geophys. Res. Lett., 45, 1955–1962,
https://doi.org/10.1002/2018GL077253, 2018.
Schroeder, M. J., Glovinsky, M., Hendricks, V. F., Hood, F. C., Hull, M. K.,
Jacobson, H. L., Kirkpatrick, R., Krueger, D. W., Mallory, L. P., Oertel A. G., Reese, R. H., Sergius, L. A., and Syverson, C. E.: Synoptic weather types
associated with critical fire weather, Forest Service, US Department of
Agriculture, Berkeley, 1964.
Sharples, J. J.: An overview of mountain meteorological effects relevant to
fire behaviour and bushfire risk, Int. J. Wildland Fire, 18, 737–754,
https://doi.org/10.1071/WF08041, 2009.
Sharples, J. J., Mills, G. A., McRae, R. H. D., and Weber, R. O.: Foehn-Like winds
and elevated fire danger conditions in southeastern Australia, J. Appl.
Meteorol. Clim., 49, 1067–1095, https://doi.org/10.1175/2010JAMC2219.1, 2010.
Sharples, J. J., McRae, R. H. D., and Wilkes, S. R.: Wind-terrain effects on the
propagation of wildfires in rugged terrain: fire channelling, Int. J.
Wildland Fire, 21, 282–296, https://doi.org/10.1071/WF10055, 2012.
Smith, R. B.: On severe downslope winds, J. Atmos. Sci., 42, 2597–2603,
1985.
Stanešić, A., Horvath, K., and Keresturi, E.: Comparison of NMC and
Ensemble-Based Climatological Background-Error Covariances in an Operational
Limited-Area Data Assimilation System, Atmosphere, 10, 570,
https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos10100570, 2019.
Stocks, B. J., Lawson, B. D., Alexander, M. E., Van Wagner, C. E., McAlpine,
R. S., Lynham, T. J., and Dube, D. E.: The Canadian Forest Fire Danger Rating
System: an overview, Forest. Chron., 65, 450–457, 1989.
Strauss, D., Bednar, L., and Mees, R.: Do one percent of forest fires cause
ninety-nine percent of the damage?, Forest Sci., 35, 319–328, 1989.
Šoljan, V., Belušić, A., Šarović, K., Nimac, I., Brzaj,
S., Suhin, J., Belavić, M., Večenaj, Ž., Grisogono, B.:
Micro-Scale Properties of Different Bora Types, Atmosphere, 9, 116,
https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos9040116, 2018.
Telišman Prtenjak, M., Horvat, I., Tomažić, I., Kvakić, M.,
Viher, M., and Grisogono, B.: Impact of mesoscale meteorological processes on
anomalous radar propagation conditions over the northern Adriatic area, J.
Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 120, 8759–8782, https://doi.org/10.1002/2014JD022626, 2015.
Telišman Prtenjak, M., Viher, M., and Jurković, J.: Sea-land breeze
development during a summer bora event along the north-eastern Adriatic
coast, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 136, 1554–1571,
https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.649, 2010.
Tomašević, I.: Vertical atmospheric profiles during the large
wildland fires, Master thesis, Faculty of Science, University of Zagreb,
2012 (in Croatian).
Tomašević, I., Cheung, K., Vučetić, V., and Fox-Hughes, P.:
Comparison of wildfire meteorology and climate at the Adriatic coast and
southeast Australia, Atmosphere, 13, 755, https://doi.org/10.3390/ATMOS13050755, 2022.
Tory, K. J. and Kepert, J. D.: Pyrocumulonimbus firepower threshold: accessing
the atmospheric potential for pyroCb, Weather Forecast., 36, 439–456,
https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-20-0027.1, 2021.
Tory, K. J., Thurston, W., and Kepert, J. D.: Thermodynamics of pyrocumulus: a
conceptual study, Mon. Weather Rev., 146, 2579–2598,
https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-17-0377.1, 2018.
Tudor, M., Ivatek-Šahdan, S., Stanešić, A., Horvath, K.,
Bajić A.: Forecasting weather in Croatia using ALADIN numerical weather
prediction model, in: Climate Change and
Regional/Local Responses, edited by: Zhang, Y. and Ray, P., IntechOpen, Rijeka, 59–88,
https://doi.org/10.5772/55698, 2013.
Tudor, M., Stanešić, A., Ivatek-Šahdan, S., Hrastinski, M., Odak
Plenković, I., Horvath, K., Bajić A., and Kovačić, T.:
Operational validation and verification of ALADIN forecast in Meteorological
and hydrological service of Croatia, Croat. Meteorol. J., 50, 47–70, 2015.
Turco, M., Jerez, S., Augusto, S., Tarín-Carrasco, P., Ratola, N.,
Jiménez-Guerrero, P., and Trigo, R. M.: Climate drivers of the 2017
devastating fires in Portugal, Sci. Rep.-UK, 9, 13886,
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-019-50281-2, 2019.
Uccellini, L. W.: On the Role of Upper Tropospheric Jet Streaks and Leeside
Cyclogenesis in the Development of Low-Level Jets in the Great Plains, Mon.
Weather Rev., 108, 1689–1696, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1980)108<1689:OTROUT>2.0.CO;2, 1980.
Van Wagner, C. E. and Pickett, T. L.: Equations and Fortran Program for the
Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index System, Forestry Technical Report 33,
Canadian Forestry Service, Government of Canada, Ontario, ISBN 0-662-13906-2, 1985.
Vučetić, M.: Meteorological analysis of a catastrophic forest fire
on Korčula in 1985, Croat. Meteorol. J. (Rasprave), 22, 67–72, 1987 (in
Croatian).
Vučetić, M.: Weather phenomena during the 13–31 July 1990 forest
fire on the island of Hvar, Croat. Meteorol. J., 27, 69–76, 1992 (in
Croatian).
Vučetić, M. and Vučetić, V.: Adriatic Weather – Meteorology for Sailors, Fabra Press, Zagreb, ISBN 98-953-7317-22-5, 2013.
Vučetić, V.: Bora on the northern Adriatic, 12–16 April 1982,
Croat. Meteorol. J. (Rasprave), 23, 27–44, 1988.
Vučetić, V.: Statistical analysis of severe Adriatic bora, Croat.
Meteorol. J., 26, 41–51, 1991.
Vučetić, V.: Severe bora on the mid-Adriatic, Croat. Meteorol. J.,
28, 19–36, 1993.
Vučetić, V., Ivatek-Šahdan, S., Tudor, M., Kraljević, L.,
Ivančan-Picek, B., and Strelec Mahović, N.: Weather analysis during the
Kornat Fire on 30 August 2007, Croat. Meteorol. J., 42, 41–66, 2007 (in
Croatian).
Wang, H. H.: Analysis on downwind distribution of firebrands sourced from a
wildland fire, Fire Technol., 47, 321–340, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10694-009-0134-4,
2011.
Werth, P. A., Potter, B. E., Clements, C. B., Finney, M. A., Goodrick, S. L.,
Alexander, M. E., Cruz, M. G., Forthofer, J. A., and McAllister, S. S.: Synthesis of Knowledge of Extreme Fire Behavior, Volume 1 for Fire Managers. General Technical Report PNW-GTR-854, Pacific Northwest Research Station, Forecast Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, November, https://doi.org/10.2737/PNW-GTR-854, 2011.
Whiteman, C. D.: Mountain Meteorology: Fundamentals and Applications, Oxford
University Press, US, ISBN 9780195132717, 2000.
Zimet, T., Martin, J. E., and Potter, B. E.: The influence of an upper-level frontal zone on the Mack Lake Wildfire environment, Meteorol. Appl., 14,
131–147, https://doi.org/10.1002/met.14, 2007.
Short summary
One of the most severe and impactful urban wildfire events in Croatian history has been reconstructed and analyzed. The study identified some important meteorological influences related to the event: the synoptic conditions of the Azores anticyclone, cold front, and upper-level shortwave trough all led to the highest fire weather index in 2017. A low-level jet, locally known as bura wind that can be explained by hydraulic jump theory, was the dynamic trigger of the event.
One of the most severe and impactful urban wildfire events in Croatian history has been...
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint