Articles | Volume 22, issue 9
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3041-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3041-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| Highlight paper
| 
19 Sep 2022
Research article | Highlight paper |
| 19 Sep 2022
| 19 Sep 2022
Progress and challenges in glacial lake outburst flood research (2017–2021): a research community perspective
Adam Emmer
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Institute of Geography and Regional Science, University of Graz, Graz, Austria
Simon K. Allen
Department of Geography, University of Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
Institute for Environmental Sciences, University of Geneva, Geneva,
Switzerland
Mark Carey
Environmental Studies Program and Geography Department, University of Oregon, Eugene, Oregon, USA
Holger Frey
Department of Geography, University of Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
Christian Huggel
Department of Geography, University of Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
Oliver Korup
Institute of Environmental Science and Geography, University of Potsdam, Potsdam, Germany
Institute of Geosciences, University of Potsdam, Potsdam, Germany
Martin Mergili
Institute of Geography and Regional Science, University of Graz, Graz, Austria
Ashim Sattar
Department of Geography, University of Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
Georg Veh
Institute of Environmental Science and Geography, University of Potsdam, Potsdam, Germany
Thomas Y. Chen
Columbia University, New York, New York, USA
Simon J. Cook
Geography and Environmental Science, University of Dundee, Dundee, UK
UNESCO Centre for Water Law, Policy and Science, University of Dundee, Dundee, UK
Mariana Correas-Gonzalez
Instituto Argentino de Nivología Glaciología y Ciencias
Ambientales (IANIGLA), CONICET, UNCUYO, Gobierno de Mendoza, Mendoza,
Argentina
Soumik Das
Centre for the Study of Regional Development, JNU, New Delhi, India
Alejandro Diaz Moreno
Reynolds International Ltd., Mold, UK
Fabian Drenkhan
Geography and the Environment, Department of Humanities, Pontificia Universidad
Católica del Perú, Lima, Peru
Melanie Fischer
Institute of Environmental Science and Geography, University of Potsdam, Potsdam, Germany
Walter W. Immerzeel
Faculty of Geosciences, Utrecht University, Utrecht, the Netherlands
Eñaut Izagirre
Department of Geology, University of the Basque Country UPV/EHU,
Leioa, Spain
Ramesh Chandra Joshi
Department of Geography, Kumaun University, Nainital, India
Ioannis Kougkoulos
Department of Science and Mathematics, The American College of
Greece, Greece
Riamsara Kuyakanon Knapp
Department of Social Anthropology, University of Cambridge,
Cambridge, UK
Department of Culture Studies and Oriental Languages (IKOS), University of
Oslo, Oslo, Norway
Dongfeng Li
Department of Geography, National University of Singapore, Singapore, Singapore
Ulfat Majeed
Department of Geoinformatics, University of Kashmir, Srinagar, India
Stephanie Matti
University of Iceland, Reykjavík, Iceland
Holly Moulton
Environmental Studies Program, University of Oregon, Eugene, Oregon, USA
Faezeh Nick
Faculty of Geosciences, Utrecht University, Utrecht, the Netherlands
Valentine Piroton
University of Liège, Liège, Belgium
Irfan Rashid
Department of Geoinformatics, University of Kashmir, Srinagar, India
Masoom Reza
Department of Geography, Kumaun University, Nainital, India
Anderson Ribeiro de Figueiredo
Federal University of Rio Grande do Sul, Porto Alegre, Brazil
Christian Riveros
Instituto Nacional de Investigación en Glaciares y Ecosistemas de Montaña (INAIGEM), Lima, Peru
National Agrarian University La Molina, Lima, Peru
Finu Shrestha
International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD),
Kathmandu, Nepal
Milan Shrestha
School of Sustainability, Arizona State University, Tempe, Arizona, USA
Jakob Steiner
International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD),
Kathmandu, Nepal
Noah Walker-Crawford
University College London, London, UK
Joanne L. Wood
Centre for Geography and Environmental Science, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK
Jacob C. Yde
Western Norway University of Applied Sciences, Bergen, Norway
Related authors
No articles found.
Oriol Pomarol Moya, Madlene Nussbaum, Siamak Mehrkanoon, Philip D. A. Kraaijenbrink, Isabelle Gouttevin, Derek Karssenberg, and Walter W. Immerzeel
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1845, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1845, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for The Cryosphere (TC).
Short summary
Short summary
Two hybrid Machine Learning (ML) approaches using meteorological data and snowpack simulations from the Crocus snow model were evaluated for daily snow water equivalent (SWE) prediction at ten locations in the Northern Hemisphere, where they improved both Crocus and traditional ML approaches. In particular, a hybrid setup augmenting the measured data with Crocus simulations considerably enhanced prediction on unseen locations, paving the way for better long-term SWE monitoring.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Maria Isabel Arango-Carmona, Paul Voit, Marcel Hürlimann, Edier Aristizábal, and Oliver Korup
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1698, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1698, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences (NHESS).
Short summary
Short summary
We studied 22 cascading landslide and torrential events in tropical mountains to understand how rainfall, slopes, and soil types interact to trigger them. We found that extreme rainfall alone is not always the cause, but long wet periods and sediment type also play a role. Our findings can help improve warning systems and reduce disaster risks in vulnerable regions.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Adam Emmer, Oscar Vilca, Cesar Salazar Checa, Sihan Li, Simon Cook, Elena Pummer, Jan Hrebrina, and Wilfried Haeberli
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1207–1228, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1207-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1207-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We describe in detail the most recent large landslide-triggered glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF) in the Peruvian Andes (the 2023 Rasac GLOF), analysing its preconditions and consequences, as well as the role of the changing climate. Our study contributes to understanding GLOF occurrence patterns in space and time and corroborates reports detailing the increasing frequency of such events in changing mountains.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Titouan Biget, Fanny Brun, Walter Immerzeel, Leo Martin, Hamish Pritchard, Emily Colier, Yanbin Lei, and Tandong Yao
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-863, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-863, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for The Cryosphere (TC).
Short summary
Short summary
This study explore the precipitation in the southern Tibetan plateau using the water pressure of an high altitude lake and meteorological models and shows that snowfall could be much stronger on the Plateau than what is predicted by the models.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Natalie Lützow, Bretwood Higman, Martin Truffer, Bodo Bookhagen, Friedrich Knuth, Oliver Korup, Katie E. Hughes, Marten Geertsema, John J. Clague, and Georg Veh
The Cryosphere, 19, 1085–1102, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-1085-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-1085-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
As the atmosphere warms, thinning glacier dams impound smaller lakes at their margins. Yet, some lakes deviate from this trend and have instead grown over time, increasing the risk of glacier floods to downstream populations and infrastructure. In this article, we examine the mechanisms behind the growth of an ice-dammed lake in Alaska. We find that the growth in size and outburst volumes is more controlled by glacier front downwaste than by overall mass loss over the entire glacier surface.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Laura Niggli, Holger Frey, Simon Allen, Nazgul Alybaeva, Christian Huggel, Bolot Moldobekov, and Vitalii Zaginaev
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-290, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-290, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences (NHESS).
Short summary
Short summary
Glacial lake outburst floods pose significant risks to communities and infrastructure. Our study explores how effective different measures are in reducing such risks. Using numerical modelling, we evaluate three strategies: lowering lake levels, building a deflection dam, and creating a retention basin. We compared their hazard and exposure reduction and their costs and benefits. This offers insights that can improve GLOF risk management worldwide and support better decision-making.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Miaomiao Qi, Shiyin Liu, Zhifang Zhao, Yongpeng Gao, Fuming Xie, Georg Veh, Letian Xiao, Jinlong Jing, Yu Zhu, and Kunpeng Wu
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 969–982, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-969-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-969-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Here we propose a new mathematically robust and cost-effective model to improve glacial lake water storage estimation. We have also provided a dataset of measured water storage in glacial lakes through field depth measurements. Our model incorporates an automated calculation process and outperforms previous ones, achieving an average relative error of only 14 %. This research offers a valuable tool for researchers seeking to improve the risk assessment of glacial lake outburst floods.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Henning Åkesson, Kamilla Hauknes Sjursen, Thomas Vikhamar Schuler, Thorben Dunse, Liss Marie Andreassen, Mette Kusk Gillespie, Benjamin Aubrey Robson, Thomas Schellenberger, and Jacob Clement Yde
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-467, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-467, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We model the historical and future evolution of the Jostedalsbreen ice cap in Norway, projecting substantial and largely irreversible mass loss for the 21st century, and that the ice cap will split into three parts. Further mass loss is in the pipeline, with a disappearance during the 22nd century under high emissions. Our study demonstrates an approach to model complex ice masses, highlights uncertainties due to precipitation, and calls for further research on long-term future glacier change.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Martin Mergili, Hanna Pfeffer, Andreas Kellerer-Pirklbauer, Christian Zangerl, and Shiva Prasad Pudasaini
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-213, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-213, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Geoscientific Model Development (GMD).
Short summary
Short summary
We present a new version of the landslide model r.avaflow. It includes a model where different materials move on top of each other instead of mixing; a model supporting the entire range from block sliding to flowing; a model for slow-moving processes; and an interface for virtual reality visualization. Based on the results for four case studies we conclude that, at the moment, our enhancements are very useful for visualization of landslides for awareness building and environmental education.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Stephan Harrison, Adina Racoviteanu, Sarah Shannon, Darren Jones, Karen Anderson, Neil Glasser, Jasper Knight, Anna Ranger, Arindan Mandal, Brahma Dutt Vishwakarma, Jeffrey Kargel, Dan Shugar, Umesh Haritishaya, Dongfeng Li, Aristeidis Koutroulis, Klaus Wyser, and Sam Inglis
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-4033, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-4033, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Climate change is leading to a global recession of mountain glaciers, and numerical modelling suggests that this will result in the eventual disappearance of many glaciers, impacting water supplies. However, an alternative scenario suggests that increased rock fall and debris flows to valley bottoms will cover glaciers with thick rock debris, slowing melting and transforming glaciers into rock-ice mixtures called rock glaciers. This paper explores these scenarios.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Johannes Jakob Fürst, David Farías-Barahona, Thomas Bruckner, Lucia Scaff, Martin Mergili, Santiago Montserrat, and Humberto Peña
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3103, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3103, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The 1987 Parraguirre ice-rock avalanche developed into a devastating debris-flow causing loss of many lives and inflicting severe damage near Santiago, Chile. Here, we revise this event combining various observational records with modelling techniques. In this year, important snow cover coincided with warm days in spring. We further quantify the total solid volume, and forward important upward corrections for the trigger and flood volumes. Finally, river damming was key for high flow mobility.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Mette K. Gillespie, Liss M. Andreassen, Matthias Huss, Simon de Villiers, Kamilla H. Sjursen, Jostein Aasen, Jostein Bakke, Jan M. Cederstrøm, Hallgeir Elvehøy, Bjarne Kjøllmoen, Even Loe, Marte Meland, Kjetil Melvold, Sigurd D. Nerhus, Torgeir O. Røthe, Eivind W. N. Støren, Kåre Øst, and Jacob C. Yde
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 16, 5799–5825, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-5799-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-5799-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We present an extensive ice thickness dataset from Jostedalsbreen ice cap that will serve as a baseline for future studies of regional climate-induced change. Results show that Jostedalsbreen currently (~2020) has a maximum ice thickness of ~630 m, a mean ice thickness of 154 ± 22 m and an ice volume of 70.6 ±10.2 km3. Ice of less than 50 m thickness covers two narrow regions of Jostedalsbreen, and the ice cap is likely to separate into three parts in a warming climate.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Oliver Korup, Lisa V. Luna, and Joaquin V. Ferrer
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3815–3832, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3815-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3815-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Catalogues of mapped landslides are useful for learning and forecasting how frequently they occur in relation to their size. Yet, rare and large landslides remain mostly uncertain in statistical summaries of these catalogues. We propose a single, consistent method of comparing across different data sources and find that landslide statistics disclose more about subjective mapping choices than trigger types or environmental settings.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Amalie Skålevåg, Oliver Korup, and Axel Bronstert
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 4771–4796, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4771-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4771-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We present a cluster-based approach for inferring sediment discharge event types from suspended sediment concentration and streamflow. Applying it to a glacierised catchment, we find event magnitude and shape complexity to be the key characteristics separating event types, while hysteresis is less important. The four event types are attributed to compound rainfall–melt extremes, high snowmelt and glacier melt, freeze–thaw-modulated snow-melt and precipitation, and late-season glacier melt.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Marc Girona-Mata, Andrew Orr, Martin Widmann, Daniel Bannister, Ghulam Hussain Dars, Scott Hosking, Jesse Norris, David Ocio, Tony Phillips, Jakob Steiner, and Richard E. Turner
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2805, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2805, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We introduce a novel method for improving daily precipitation maps in mountain regions and pilot it across three basins in the Hindu Kush Karakoram Himalaya (HKH). The approach leverages climate model and weather station data, along with statistical / machine learning techniques. Our results show this approach outperforms traditional methods, especially in remote, ungauged areas, suggesting it could be used to improve precipitation maps across much of the HKH, as well as other mountain regions.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Sonam Rinzin, Stuart Dunning, Rachel Carr, Ashim Sattar, and Martin Mergili
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1819, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1819, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We evaluated the sensitivity of model outputs to input parameter uncertainties by performing multiple GLOF simulations using the r.avaflow model. We found out that GLOF modelling outputs are highly sensitive to six parameters: volume of mass movements entering lakes, DEM datasets, origin of mass movements, mesh size, basal frictional angle, and entrainment coefficient. Future modelling should carefully consider the output uncertainty from these sensitive parameters.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Imtiyaz Ahmad Bhat, Irfan Rashid, RAAJ Ramsankaran, Argha Banerjee, and Saurabh Vijay
Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2023-522, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2023-522, 2024
Preprint withdrawn
Short summary
Short summary
A comprehensive rock glacier inventory (n = 5492) has been generated through manual delineation in a GIS environment for the western Himalayan region. The inventory has characterized each rock glacier with 22 attributes following the standard protocols. This inventory shall serve as a baseline for the future research related to rock glacier dynamics, their hydrological contribution and response to climate change.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Léo C. P. Martin, Sebastian Westermann, Michele Magni, Fanny Brun, Joel Fiddes, Yanbin Lei, Philip Kraaijenbrink, Tamara Mathys, Moritz Langer, Simon Allen, and Walter W. Immerzeel
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 4409–4436, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-4409-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-4409-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Across the Tibetan Plateau, many large lakes have been changing level during the last decades as a response to climate change. In high-mountain environments, water fluxes from the land to the lakes are linked to the ground temperature of the land and to the energy fluxes between the ground and the atmosphere, which are modified by climate change. With a numerical model, we test how these water and energy fluxes have changed over the last decades and how they influence the lake level variations.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Annette I. Patton, Lisa V. Luna, Joshua J. Roering, Aaron Jacobs, Oliver Korup, and Benjamin B. Mirus
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3261–3284, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3261-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3261-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Landslide warning systems often use statistical models to predict landslides based on rainfall. They are typically trained on large datasets with many landslide occurrences, but in rural areas large datasets may not exist. In this study, we evaluate which statistical model types are best suited to predicting landslides and demonstrate that even a small landslide inventory (five storms) can be used to train useful models for landslide early warning when non-landslide events are also included.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Finu Shrestha, Jakob F. Steiner, Reeju Shrestha, Yathartha Dhungel, Sharad P. Joshi, Sam Inglis, Arshad Ashraf, Sher Wali, Khwaja M. Walizada, and Taigang Zhang
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 3941–3961, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-3941-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-3941-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
A new inventory of glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) in High Mountain Asia found 697 events, causing 906 deaths, 3 times more than previously reported. This study provides insights into the contributing factors behind GLOFs on a regional scale and highlights the need for interdisciplinary approaches, including scientific communities and local knowledge, to understand GLOF risks in Asia. This study allows integration with other datasets, enabling future local and regional risk assessments.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Monika Pfau, Georg Veh, and Wolfgang Schwanghart
The Cryosphere, 17, 3535–3551, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3535-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3535-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Cast shadows have been a recurring problem in remote sensing of glaciers. We show that the length of shadows from surrounding mountains can be used to detect gains or losses in glacier elevation.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Ixeia Vidaller, Eñaut Izagirre, Luis Mariano del Rio, Esteban Alonso-González, Francisco Rojas-Heredia, Enrique Serrano, Ana Moreno, Juan Ignacio López-Moreno, and Jesús Revuelto
The Cryosphere, 17, 3177–3192, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3177-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3177-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The Aneto glacier, the largest glacier in the Pyrenees, has shown continuous surface and ice thickness losses in the last decades. In this study, we examine changes in its surface and ice thickness for 1981–2022 and the remaining ice thickness in 2020. During these 41 years, the glacier has shrunk by 64.7 %, and the ice thickness has decreased by 30.5 m on average. The mean ice thickness in 2022 was 11.9 m, compared to 32.9 m in 1981. The results highlight the critical situation of the glacier.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Anushilan Acharya, Jakob F. Steiner, Khwaja Momin Walizada, Salar Ali, Zakir Hussain Zakir, Arnaud Caiserman, and Teiji Watanabe
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2569–2592, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2569-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2569-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
All accessible snow and ice avalanches together with previous scientific research, local knowledge, and existing or previously active adaptation and mitigation solutions were investigated in the high mountain Asia (HMA) region to have a detailed overview of the state of knowledge and identify gaps. A comprehensive avalanche database from 1972–2022 is generated, including 681 individual events. The database provides a basis for the forecasting of avalanche hazards in different parts of HMA.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Natalie Lützow, Georg Veh, and Oliver Korup
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 2983–3000, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-2983-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-2983-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Glacier lake outburst floods (GLOFs) are a prominent natural hazard, and climate change may change their magnitude, frequency, and impacts. A global, literature-based GLOF inventory is introduced, entailing 3151 reported GLOFs. The reporting density varies temporally and regionally, with most cases occurring in NW North America. Since 1900, the number of yearly documented GLOFs has increased 6-fold. However, many GLOFs have incomplete records, and we call for a systematic reporting protocol.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Yan Hu, Stephan Harrison, Lin Liu, and Joanne Laura Wood
The Cryosphere, 17, 2305–2321, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-2305-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-2305-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Rock glaciers are considered to be important freshwater reservoirs in the future climate. However, the amount of ice stored in rock glaciers is poorly quantified. Here we developed an empirical model to estimate ice content in rock the glaciers in the Khumbu and Lhotse valleys, Nepal. The modelling results confirmed the hydrological importance of rock glaciers in the study area. The developed approach shows promise in being applied to permafrost regions to assess water storage of rock glaciers.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Z. Xiong, D. Stober, M. Krstić, O. Korup, M. I. Arango, H. Li, and M. Werner
ISPRS Ann. Photogramm. Remote Sens. Spatial Inf. Sci., X-5-W1-2023, 75–81, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-annals-X-5-W1-2023-75-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-annals-X-5-W1-2023-75-2023, 2023
Midhat Fayaz, Shakil A. Romshoo, Irfan Rashid, and Rakesh Chandra
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1593–1611, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1593-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1593-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Earthquakes cause immense loss of lives and damage to properties, particularly in major urban centres. The city of Srinagar, which houses around 1.5 million people, is susceptible to high seismic hazards due to its peculiar geological setting, urban setting, demographic profile, and tectonic setting. Keeping in view all of these factors, the present study investigates the earthquake vulnerability of buildings in Srinagar, an urban city in the northwestern Himalayas, India.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Hao Li, Baoying Shan, Liu Liu, Lei Wang, Akash Koppa, Feng Zhong, Dongfeng Li, Xuanxuan Wang, Wenfeng Liu, Xiuping Li, and Zongxue Xu
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 6399–6412, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-6399-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-6399-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This study examines changes in water yield by determining turning points in the direction of yield changes and highlights that regime shifts in historical water yield occurred in the Upper Brahmaputra River basin, both the climate and cryosphere affect the magnitude of water yield increases, climate determined the declining trends in water yield, and meltwater has the potential to alleviate the water shortage. A repository for all source files is made available.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Simon K. Allen, Ashim Sattar, Owen King, Guoqing Zhang, Atanu Bhattacharya, Tandong Yao, and Tobias Bolch
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3765–3785, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3765-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3765-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This study demonstrates how the threat of a very large outburst from a future lake can be feasibly assessed alongside that from current lakes to inform disaster risk management within a transboundary basin between Tibet and Nepal. Results show that engineering measures and early warning systems would need to be coupled with effective land use zoning and programmes to strengthen local response capacities in order to effectively reduce the risk associated with current and future outburst events.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Melanie Fischer, Jana Brettin, Sigrid Roessner, Ariane Walz, Monique Fort, and Oliver Korup
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3105–3123, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3105-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3105-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Nepal’s second-largest city has been rapidly growing since the 1970s, although its valley has been affected by rare, catastrophic floods in recent and historic times. We analyse potential impacts of such floods on urban areas and infrastructure by modelling 10 physically plausible flood scenarios along Pokhara’s main river. We find that hydraulic effects would largely affect a number of squatter settlements, which have expanded rapidly towards the river by a factor of up to 20 since 2008.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Stefan Fugger, Catriona L. Fyffe, Simone Fatichi, Evan Miles, Michael McCarthy, Thomas E. Shaw, Baohong Ding, Wei Yang, Patrick Wagnon, Walter Immerzeel, Qiao Liu, and Francesca Pellicciotti
The Cryosphere, 16, 1631–1652, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1631-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1631-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The monsoon is important for the shrinking and growing of glaciers in the Himalaya during summer. We calculate the melt of seven glaciers in the region using a complex glacier melt model and weather data. We find that monsoonal weather affects glaciers that are covered with a layer of rocky debris and glaciers without such a layer in different ways. It is important to take so-called turbulent fluxes into account. This knowledge is vital for predicting the future of the Himalayan glaciers.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Wouter J. Smolenaars, Sanita Dhaubanjar, Muhammad K. Jamil, Arthur Lutz, Walter Immerzeel, Fulco Ludwig, and Hester Biemans
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 861–883, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-861-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-861-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The arid plains of the lower Indus Basin rely heavily on the water provided by the mountainous upper Indus. Rapid population growth in the upper Indus is expected to increase the water that is consumed there. This will subsequently reduce the water that is available for the downstream plains, where the population and water demand are also expected to grow. In future, this may aggravate tensions over the division of water between the countries that share the Indus Basin.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Iwo Wieczorek, Mateusz Czesław Strzelecki, Łukasz Stachnik, Jacob Clement Yde, and Jakub Małecki
The Cryosphere Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2021-364, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2021-364, 2022
Manuscript not accepted for further review
Short summary
Short summary
Glacial lakes development around the World has been observed since the end of the Little Ice Age. The whole process is especially rapid in Arctic region what shows last researches. One of the last regions which still has not been covered by data about changes of glacial lakes is the Svalbard Archipelago (Norway). We used remote sensing materials and methods to provide information's about changes of glacial lakes and to show major activity of glacial lakes outburst floods.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Melanie Fischer, Oliver Korup, Georg Veh, and Ariane Walz
The Cryosphere, 15, 4145–4163, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-4145-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-4145-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) in the greater Himalayan region threaten local communities and infrastructure. We assess this hazard objectively using fully data-driven models. We find that lake and catchment area, as well as regional glacier-mass balance, credibly raised the susceptibility of a glacial lake in our study area to produce a sudden outburst. However, our models hardly support the widely held notion that rapid lake growth increases GLOF susceptibility.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Christian Zangerl, Annemarie Schneeberger, Georg Steiner, and Martin Mergili
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2461–2483, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2461-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2461-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The Köfels rockslide in the Ötztal Valley (Austria) represents the largest known extremely rapid rockslide in metamorphic rock masses in the Alps and was formed in the early Holocene. Although many hypotheses for the conditioning and triggering factors were discussed in the past, until now no scientifically accepted explanatory model has been found. This study provides new data and numerical modelling results to better understand the cause and triggering factors of this gigantic natural event.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Guoxiong Zheng, Martin Mergili, Adam Emmer, Simon Allen, Anming Bao, Hao Guo, and Markus Stoffel
The Cryosphere, 15, 3159–3180, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3159-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3159-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
This paper reports on a recent glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF) event that occurred on 26 June 2020 in Tibet, China. We find that this event was triggered by a debris landslide from a steep lateral moraine. As the relationship between the long-term evolution of the lake and its likely landslide trigger revealed by a time series of satellite images, this case provides strong evidence that it can be plausibly linked to anthropogenic climate change.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Maurice van Tiggelen, Paul C. J. P. Smeets, Carleen H. Reijmer, Bert Wouters, Jakob F. Steiner, Emile J. Nieuwstraten, Walter W. Immerzeel, and Michiel R. van den Broeke
The Cryosphere, 15, 2601–2621, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-2601-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-2601-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We developed a method to estimate the aerodynamic properties of the Greenland Ice Sheet surface using either UAV or ICESat-2 elevation data. We show that this new method is able to reproduce the important spatiotemporal variability in surface aerodynamic roughness, measured by the field observations. The new maps of surface roughness can be used in atmospheric models to improve simulations of surface turbulent heat fluxes and therefore surface energy and mass balance over rough ice worldwide.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Guilherme S. Mohor, Annegret H. Thieken, and Oliver Korup
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1599–1614, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1599-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1599-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We explored differences in the damaging process across different flood types, regions within Germany, and six flood events through a numerical model in which the groups can learn from each other. Differences were found mostly across flood types, indicating the importance of identifying them, but there is great overlap across regions and flood events, indicating either that socioeconomic or temporal information was not well represented or that they are in fact less different within our cases.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Andreas Kääb, Mylène Jacquemart, Adrien Gilbert, Silvan Leinss, Luc Girod, Christian Huggel, Daniel Falaschi, Felipe Ugalde, Dmitry Petrakov, Sergey Chernomorets, Mikhail Dokukin, Frank Paul, Simon Gascoin, Etienne Berthier, and Jeffrey S. Kargel
The Cryosphere, 15, 1751–1785, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1751-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1751-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Hardly recognized so far, giant catastrophic detachments of glaciers are a rare but great potential for loss of lives and massive damage in mountain regions. Several of the events compiled in our study involve volumes (up to 100 million m3 and more), avalanche speeds (up to 300 km/h), and reaches (tens of kilometres) that are hard to imagine. We show that current climate change is able to enhance associated hazards. For the first time, we elaborate a set of factors that could cause these events.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Remco J. de Kok, Philip D. A. Kraaijenbrink, Obbe A. Tuinenburg, Pleun N. J. Bonekamp, and Walter W. Immerzeel
The Cryosphere, 14, 3215–3234, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3215-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3215-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Glaciers worldwide are shrinking, yet glaciers in parts of High Mountain Asia are growing. Using models of the regional climate and glacier growth, we reproduce the observed patterns of glacier growth and shrinkage in High Mountain Asia of the last decades. Increases in snow, in part from water that comes from lowland agriculture, have probably been more important than changes in temperature to explain the growing glaciers. We now better understand changes in the crucial mountain water cycle.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Christian Huggel, Mark Carey, Adam Emmer, Holger Frey, Noah Walker-Crawford, and Ivo Wallimann-Helmer
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2175–2193, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2175-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2175-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
There is increasing interest and need to analyze the contribution of anthropogenic climate change to negative impacts of climate change. We study the case of glacial lake Palcacocha in Peru, which poses a significant flood risk to the city of Huaraz. We found that greenhouse gas emissions; strong urbanization processes without appropriate land use planning; and social, cultural, political, and institutional factors all contribute to the existing flood risk.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Pleun N. J. Bonekamp, Chiel C. van Heerwaarden, Jakob F. Steiner, and Walter W. Immerzeel
The Cryosphere, 14, 1611–1632, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-1611-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-1611-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Drivers controlling melt of debris-covered glaciers are largely unknown. With a 3D turbulence-resolving model the impact of surface properties of debris on micrometeorological variables and the conductive heat flux is shown. Also, we show ice cliffs are local melt hot spots and that turbulent fluxes and local heat advection amplify spatial heterogeneity on the surface.This work is important for glacier mass balance modelling and for the understanding of the evolution of debris-covered glaciers.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Johnnatan Palacio Cordoba, Martin Mergili, and Edier Aristizábal
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 815–829, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-815-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-815-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Landslides triggered by rainfall are very common phenomena in complex tropical environments such as the Colombian Andes. In this work, we perform probabilistic analyses with r.slope.stability for landslide susceptibility analysis. We test the model in the La Arenosa catchment, northern Colombian Andes. The results are compared to those yielded with the corresponding deterministic analyses and with other physically based models applied in the same catchment.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Martin Mergili, Michel Jaboyedoff, José Pullarello, and Shiva P. Pudasaini
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 505–520, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-505-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-505-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Computer simulations of complex landslide processes in mountain areas are important for informing risk management but are at the same time challenging in terms of parameterization and physical and numerical model implementation. Using the tool r.avaflow, we highlight the progress and the challenges with regard to such simulations on the example of the Piz Cengalo–Bondo landslide cascade in Switzerland, which started as an initial rockslide–rockfall and finally evolved into a debris flow.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Martin Mergili, Shiva P. Pudasaini, Adam Emmer, Jan-Thomas Fischer, Alejo Cochachin, and Holger Frey
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 93–114, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-93-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-93-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
In 1941, the glacial lagoon Lake Palcacocha in the Cordillera Blanca (Peru) drained suddenly. The resulting outburst flood/debris flow consumed another lake and had a disastrous impact on the town of Huaraz 23 km downstream. We reconstuct this event through a numerical model to learn about the possibility of prediction of similar processes in the future. Remaining challenges consist of the complex process interactions and the lack of experience due to the rare occurrence of such process chains.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
S. Naithani, P. K. Champati ray, and R. C. Joshi
Int. Arch. Photogramm. Remote Sens. Spatial Inf. Sci., XLII-3-W8, 267–274, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-archives-XLII-3-W8-267-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-archives-XLII-3-W8-267-2019, 2019
Teun van Woerkom, Jakob F. Steiner, Philip D. A. Kraaijenbrink, Evan S. Miles, and Walter W. Immerzeel
Earth Surf. Dynam., 7, 411–427, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-7-411-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-7-411-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Using data obtained from multiple UAV flights over a debris-covered glacier in the Himalaya between 2013 and 2018, we show that the adjacent moraines erode at rates of up to 16 cm per year, contributing to this debris cover. With retreating ice and resulting instability of moraines, this causes the glacier to cover a narrow zone along the lateral moraines in ever-thicker layers of rocks, resulting in a possible future decrease of local melt.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Sebastian von Specht, Ugur Ozturk, Georg Veh, Fabrice Cotton, and Oliver Korup
Solid Earth, 10, 463–486, https://doi.org/10.5194/se-10-463-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/se-10-463-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
We show the landslide response to the 2016 Kumamoto earthquake (Mw 7.1) in central Kyushu (Japan). Landslides are concentrated to the northeast of the rupture, coinciding with the propagation direction of the earthquake. This azimuthal variation in the landslide concentration is linked to the seismic rupture process itself and not to classical landslide susceptibility factors. We propose a new ground-motion model that links the seismic radiation pattern with the landslide distribution.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Maria Loroño-Leturiondo, Paul O'Hare, Simon J. Cook, Stephen R. Hoon, and Sam Illingworth
Geosci. Commun., 2, 39–53, https://doi.org/10.5194/gc-2-39-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gc-2-39-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Urban centres worldwide are adversely affected by flooding and air pollution. Effective communication between experts and citizens is key to understanding and limiting the impact of these hazards, as citizens have valuable knowledge based on their day-to-day experiences. In this study, we compare five different communication formats that can facilitate the required dialogue and explore the best ways and optimal circumstances in which these can be implemented.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
René Reijer Wijngaard, Hester Biemans, Arthur Friedrich Lutz, Arun Bhakta Shrestha, Philippus Wester, and Walter Willem Immerzeel
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 6297–6321, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-6297-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-6297-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
This study assesses the combined impacts of climate change and socio-economic developments on the future water gap for the Indus, Ganges, and Brahmaputra river basins until the end of the 21st century. The results show that despite projected increases in surface water availability, the strong socio-economic development and associated increase in water demand will likely lead to an increase in the water gap, indicating that socio-economic changes will be the key driver in the evolving water gap.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Fanny Brun, Patrick Wagnon, Etienne Berthier, Joseph M. Shea, Walter W. Immerzeel, Philip D. A. Kraaijenbrink, Christian Vincent, Camille Reverchon, Dibas Shrestha, and Yves Arnaud
The Cryosphere, 12, 3439–3457, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-3439-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-3439-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
On debris-covered glaciers, steep ice cliffs experience dramatically enhanced melt compared with the surrounding debris-covered ice. Using field measurements, UAV data and submetre satellite imagery, we estimate the cliff contribution to 2 years of ablation on a debris-covered tongue in Nepal, carefully taking into account ice dynamics. While they occupy only 7 to 8 % of the tongue surface, ice cliffs contributed to 23 to 24 % of the total tongue ablation.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Ekrem Canli, Martin Mergili, Benni Thiebes, and Thomas Glade
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 2183–2202, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-2183-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-2183-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Regional-scale landslide forecasting traditionally strongly relies on empirical approaches and landslide-triggering rainfall thresholds. Today, probabilistic methods utilizing ensemble predictions are frequently used for flood forecasting. In our study, we specify how such an approach could also be applied for landslide forecasts and for operational landslide forecasting and early warning systems. To this end, we implemented a physically based landslide model in a probabilistic framework.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Maria Loroño-Leturiondo, Paul O'Hare, Simon Cook, Stephen R. Hoon, and Sam Illingworth
Adv. Sci. Res., 15, 45–50, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-15-45-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-15-45-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Globally we are facing both an air quality crisis and a communication emergency. Communication efforts so far have been based on a one-way provision of information from experts to society, and have arguably failed in their mission to foster a more engaged society, or to result in cleaner air. This paper supports the case for moving away from one-way communication, and identifies five benefits of a practical two-way communication between experts and citizens in order to engender positive change.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Stephan Harrison, Jeffrey S. Kargel, Christian Huggel, John Reynolds, Dan H. Shugar, Richard A. Betts, Adam Emmer, Neil Glasser, Umesh K. Haritashya, Jan Klimeš, Liam Reinhardt, Yvonne Schaub, Andy Wiltshire, Dhananjay Regmi, and Vít Vilímek
The Cryosphere, 12, 1195–1209, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-1195-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-1195-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Most mountain glaciers have receded throughout the last century in response to global climate change. This recession produces a range of natural hazards including glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs). We have produced the first global inventory of GLOFs associated with the failure of moraine dams and show, counterintuitively, that these have reduced in frequency over recent decades. In this paper we explore the reasons for this pattern.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Jakob F. Steiner, Philip D. A. Kraaijenbrink, Sergiu G. Jiduc, and Walter W. Immerzeel
The Cryosphere, 12, 95–101, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-95-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-95-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Glaciers that once every few years or decades suddenly advance in length – also known as surging glaciers – are found in many glaciated regions in the world. In the Karakoram glacier tongues are additionally located at low altitudes and relatively close to human settlements. We investigate a very recent and extremely rapid surge in the region that has caused a lake to form in the main valley with possible risks for downstream communities.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Karolina Korzeniowska, Yves Bühler, Mauro Marty, and Oliver Korup
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 1823–1836, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-1823-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-1823-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, we have focused on automatically detecting avalanches and classifying them into release zones, tracks, and run-out zones based on aerial imagery using an object-based image analysis (OBIA) approach. We compared the results with manually mapped avalanche polygons, and obtained a user’s accuracy of > 0.9 and a Cohen’s kappa of 0.79–0.85. Testing the method for a larger area of 226.3 km2, we estimated producer’s and user’s accuracies of 0.61 and 0.78, respectively.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Emmy E. Stigter, Niko Wanders, Tuomo M. Saloranta, Joseph M. Shea, Marc F. P. Bierkens, and Walter W. Immerzeel
The Cryosphere, 11, 1647–1664, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-1647-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-1647-2017, 2017
Koji Fujita, Hiroshi Inoue, Takeki Izumi, Satoru Yamaguchi, Ayako Sadakane, Sojiro Sunako, Kouichi Nishimura, Walter W. Immerzeel, Joseph M. Shea, Rijan B. Kayastha, Takanobu Sawagaki, David F. Breashears, Hiroshi Yagi, and Akiko Sakai
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 749–764, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-749-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-749-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
We create multiple DEMs from photographs taken by helicopter and UAV and reveal the deposit volumes over the Langtang village, which was destroyed by avalanches induced by the Gorkha earthquake. Estimated snow depth in the source area is consistent with anomalously large snow depths observed at a neighboring glacier. Comparing with a long-term observational data, we conclude that this anomalous winter snow amplified the disaster induced by the 2015 Gorkha earthquake in Nepal.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Daniel Farinotti, Douglas J. Brinkerhoff, Garry K. C. Clarke, Johannes J. Fürst, Holger Frey, Prateek Gantayat, Fabien Gillet-Chaulet, Claire Girard, Matthias Huss, Paul W. Leclercq, Andreas Linsbauer, Horst Machguth, Carlos Martin, Fabien Maussion, Mathieu Morlighem, Cyrille Mosbeux, Ankur Pandit, Andrea Portmann, Antoine Rabatel, RAAJ Ramsankaran, Thomas J. Reerink, Olivier Sanchez, Peter A. Stentoft, Sangita Singh Kumari, Ward J. J. van Pelt, Brian Anderson, Toby Benham, Daniel Binder, Julian A. Dowdeswell, Andrea Fischer, Kay Helfricht, Stanislav Kutuzov, Ivan Lavrentiev, Robert McNabb, G. Hilmar Gudmundsson, Huilin Li, and Liss M. Andreassen
The Cryosphere, 11, 949–970, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-949-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-949-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
ITMIX – the Ice Thickness Models Intercomparison eXperiment – was the first coordinated performance assessment for models inferring glacier ice thickness from surface characteristics. Considering 17 different models and 21 different test cases, we show that although solutions of individual models can differ considerably, an ensemble average can yield uncertainties in the order of 10 ± 24 % the mean ice thickness. Ways forward for improving such estimates are sketched.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Martin Mergili, Jan-Thomas Fischer, Julia Krenn, and Shiva P. Pudasaini
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 553–569, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-553-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-553-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
r.avaflow represents a GIS-based, multi-functional open-source tool for the simulation of debris flows, rock avalanches, snow avalanches, or two-phase (solid and fluid) process chains. It further facilitates parameter studies and validation of the simulation results against observed patterns. r.avaflow shall inform strategies to reduce the risks related to the interaction of mass flow processes with society.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Walter Immerzeel, Philip Kraaijenbrink, and Liss Andreassen
The Cryosphere Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2016-292, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2016-292, 2017
Revised manuscript not accepted
Short summary
Short summary
Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAV) have become increasingly popular in environmental monitoring. In this study we use a UAV to derive a very detailed digital elevation model (DEM) of Storbreen in Norway. We compare our results with a past DEM to derive the mass balance of this glacier. Our results confirm strong mass loss and retreat of continental glaciers in southern Norway and we conclude that UAVs are effective tools in stuyding mountain glaciers at a high level of detail.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Christian Vincent, Patrick Wagnon, Joseph M. Shea, Walter W. Immerzeel, Philip Kraaijenbrink, Dibas Shrestha, Alvaro Soruco, Yves Arnaud, Fanny Brun, Etienne Berthier, and Sonam Futi Sherpa
The Cryosphere, 10, 1845–1858, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-1845-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-1845-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
Approximately 25 % of the glacierized area in the Everest region is covered by debris, yet the surface mass balance of these glaciers has not been measured directly. From terrestrial photogrammetry and unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) methods, this study shows that the ablation is strongly reduced by the debris cover. The insulating effect of the debris cover has a larger effect on total mass loss than the enhanced ice ablation due to supraglacial ponds and exposed ice cliffs.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
M. Mergili, J. Krenn, and H.-J. Chu
Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 4027–4043, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-4027-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-4027-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
r.randomwalk is a flexible and multi-functional open-source GIS tool for simulating the propagation of mass movements. Mass points are routed from given release pixels through a digital elevation model until a defined break criterion is reached. In contrast to existing tools, r.randomwalk includes functionalities to account for parameter uncertainties, and it offers built-in functions for validation and visualization. We show the key functionalities of r.randomwalk for three test areas.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
F. Frank, B. W. McArdell, C. Huggel, and A. Vieli
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 2569–2583, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-2569-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-2569-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
The sudden onset of large and erosive debris flows has been observed recently in different catchments in Switzerland, implicating the importance of erosion for debris flow modelling. Therefore, an erosion model was established based on field data (relationship between maximum shear stress and erosion depth and rate) of several debris flows measured at the Illgraben. Erosion model tests at the Spreitgraben showed considerable improvements in runout pattern as well as hydrograph propagation.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
W. W. Immerzeel, N. Wanders, A. F. Lutz, J. M. Shea, and M. F. P. Bierkens
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 4673–4687, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-4673-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-4673-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
The water resources of the upper Indus river basin (UIB) are important for millions of people, yet little is known about the rain and snow fall in the high-altitude regions because of the inaccessibility, the climatic complexity and the lack of observations. In this study we use mass balance of glaciers to reconstruct the amount of precipitation in the UIB and we conclude that this amount is much higher than previously thought.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
M. Mergili and H.-J. Chu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhessd-3-5677-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhessd-3-5677-2015, 2015
Revised manuscript not accepted
Short summary
Short summary
We propose a procedure to compute an integrated spatial landslide probability, combining release and propagation. The zonal release probability is introduced to correct the pixel-based release probability for the size of the release zone relevant for a pixel. For a test area in Taiwan we observe that the model performs moderately well in predicting the observed landslides and that the size of the release zone influences the result to a much higher degree than the pixel-based release probability.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
E. Collier, F. Maussion, L. I. Nicholson, T. Mölg, W. W. Immerzeel, and A. B. G. Bush
The Cryosphere, 9, 1617–1632, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-1617-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-1617-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
We investigate the impact of surface debris on glacier energy and mass fluxes and on atmosphere-glacier feedbacks in the Karakoram range, by including debris in an interactively coupled atmosphere-glacier model. The model is run from 1 May to 1 October 2004, with a simple specification of debris thickness. We find an appreciable reduction in ablation that exceeds 5m w.e. on glacier tongues, as well as significant alterations to near-surface air temperatures and boundary layer dynamics.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
W. Terink, A. F. Lutz, G. W. H. Simons, W. W. Immerzeel, and P. Droogers
Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 2009–2034, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-2009-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-2009-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
This paper introduces the Spatial Processes in HYdrology (SPHY) model (v2.0), its underlying concepts, and some example applications. SPHY has the flexibility to be applied in a wide range of hydrologic applications, on various scales, and can easily be implemented. The most relevant hydrologic processes integrated in the SPHY model are rainfall--runoff, cryosphere processes, evapotranspiration processes, the dynamic evolution of evolution of vegetation cover, and lake/reservoir outflow.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
N. K. Meyer, W. Schwanghart, O. Korup, and F. Nadim
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 985–995, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-985-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-985-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
In the past decades the importance of and reliance on all kinds of transport networks has grown extensively making them more vulnerable to any kind of hazard. The linear structure of road networks is especially sensitive to debris flows, a process frequently occurring in the mountainous area of Norway. The paper quantifies the functional risk associated with these processes. The results reveal that the costs related to route closures are strongly related to the information status of drivers.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
M. Stähli, M. Sättele, C. Huggel, B. W. McArdell, P. Lehmann, A. Van Herwijnen, A. Berne, M. Schleiss, A. Ferrari, A. Kos, D. Or, and S. M. Springman
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 905–917, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-905-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-905-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
This review paper describes the state of the art in monitoring and predicting rapid mass movements for early warning. It further presents recent innovations in observation technologies and modelling to be used in future early warning systems (EWS). Finally, the paper proposes avenues towards successful implementation of next-generation EWS.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
C. Huggel, A. Raissig, M. Rohrer, G. Romero, A. Diaz, and N. Salzmann
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 475–485, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-475-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-475-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
Three different disaster databases are analyzed for detection of decadal spatiotemporal changes in the Andes of Peru. We find large variations in the disaster metrics depending on the database. We recommend that the type, method and source of documentation should be carefully evaluated for any analysis of disaster databases; reporting criteria should be improved and documentation efforts strengthened.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
M. Mergili, I. Marchesini, M. Alvioli, M. Metz, B. Schneider-Muntau, M. Rossi, and F. Guzzetti
Geosci. Model Dev., 7, 2969–2982, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-2969-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-2969-2014, 2014
Short summary
Short summary
The article deals with strategies to (i) reduce computation time and to (ii) appropriately account for uncertain input parameters when applying an open source GIS sliding surface model to estimate landslide susceptibility for a 90km² study area in central Italy. For (i), the area is split into a large number of tiles, enabling the exploitation of multi-processor computing environments. For (ii), the model is run with various parameter combinations to compute the slope failure probability.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
H. Frey, H. Machguth, M. Huss, C. Huggel, S. Bajracharya, T. Bolch, A. Kulkarni, A. Linsbauer, N. Salzmann, and M. Stoffel
The Cryosphere, 8, 2313–2333, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-2313-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-2313-2014, 2014
Short summary
Short summary
Existing methods (area–volume relations, a slope-dependent volume estimation method, and two ice-thickness distribution models) are used to estimate the ice reserves stored in Himalayan–Karakoram glaciers. Resulting volumes range from 2955–4737km³. Results from the ice-thickness distribution models agree well with local measurements; volume estimates from area-related relations exceed the estimates from the other approaches. Evidence on the effect of the selected method on results is provided.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
S. Nussbaumer, Y. Schaub, C. Huggel, and A. Walz
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 1611–1624, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-1611-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-1611-2014, 2014
O. Korup and C. Rixen
The Cryosphere, 8, 651–658, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-651-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-651-2014, 2014
C. H. Mohr, A. Zimmermann, O. Korup, A. Iroumé, T. Francke, and A. Bronstert
Earth Surf. Dynam., 2, 117–125, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-2-117-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-2-117-2014, 2014
D. Schneider, C. Huggel, A. Cochachin, S. Guillén, and J. García
Adv. Geosci., 35, 145–155, https://doi.org/10.5194/adgeo-35-145-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/adgeo-35-145-2014, 2014
F. E. Gruber and M. Mergili
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 13, 2779–2796, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-2779-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-2779-2013, 2013
A. Rabatel, B. Francou, A. Soruco, J. Gomez, B. Cáceres, J. L. Ceballos, R. Basantes, M. Vuille, J.-E. Sicart, C. Huggel, M. Scheel, Y. Lejeune, Y. Arnaud, M. Collet, T. Condom, G. Consoli, V. Favier, V. Jomelli, R. Galarraga, P. Ginot, L. Maisincho, J. Mendoza, M. Ménégoz, E. Ramirez, P. Ribstein, W. Suarez, M. Villacis, and P. Wagnon
The Cryosphere, 7, 81–102, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-81-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-81-2013, 2013
Related subject area
Other Hazards (e.g., Glacial and Snow Hazards, Karst, Wildfires Hazards, and Medical Geo-Hazards)
Assessing the performance and explainability of an avalanche danger forecast model
Development of operational decision support tools for mechanized ski guiding using avalanche terrain modeling, GPS tracking, and machine learning
Causes, consequences and implications of the 2023 landslide-induced Lake Rasac glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF), Cordillera Huayhuash, Peru
The Avalanche Terrain Exposure Scale (ATES) v.2
Review article: A scoping review of human factors in avalanche decision-making
A quantitative module of avalanche hazard – comparing forecaster assessments of storm and persistent slab avalanche problems with information derived from distributed snowpack simulations
Modelling current and future forest fire susceptibility in north-eastern Germany
The effect of propagation saw test geometries on critical cut length
Statistical calibration of probabilistic medium-range Fire Weather Index forecasts in Europe
Glide-snow avalanches: a mechanical, threshold-based release area model
Improving fire severity prediction in south-eastern Australia using vegetation-specific information
Proglacial lake evolution and outburst flood hazard at Fjallsjökull glacier, southeast Iceland
How hard do avalanche practitioners tap during snow stability tests?
A large-scale validation of snowpack simulations in support of avalanche forecasting focusing on critical layers
The effect of slab touchdown on anticrack arrest in propagation saw tests
A glacial lake outburst flood risk assessment for the Phochhu river basin, Bhutan
AutoATES v2.0: Automated Avalanche Terrain Exposure Scale mapping
Modelling the vulnerability of urban settings to wildland–urban interface fires in Chile
Modeling of indoor 222Rn in data-scarce regions: an interactive dashboard approach for Bogotá, Colombia
Simulation of cold powder avalanches considering daily snowpack and weather situations to enhance road safety
Supershear crack propagation in snow slab avalanche release: new insights from numerical simulations and field measurements
A regional early warning for slushflow hazard
A new approach for drought index adjustment to clay-shrinkage-induced subsidence over France: advantages of the interactive leaf area index
Automated Avalanche Terrain Exposure Scale (ATES) mapping – local validation and optimization in western Canada
An Efficient Method to Simulate Wildfire Propagation Using Irregular Grids
Improving the fire weather index system for peatlands using peat-specific hydrological input data
Brief communication: The Lahaina Fire disaster – how models can be used to understand and predict wildfires
Prediction of natural dry-snow avalanche activity using physics-based snowpack simulations
Early warning system for ice collapses and river blockages in the Sedongpu Valley, southeastern Tibetan Plateau
Fire risk modeling: an integrated and data-driven approach applied to Sicily
Avalanche size estimation and avalanche outline determination by experts: reliability and implications for practice
Fluid conduits and shallow-reservoir structure defined by geoelectrical tomography at the Nirano Salse (Italy)
Estimating the effects of meteorology and land cover on fire growth in Peru using a novel difference equation model
Review article: Snow and ice avalanches in high mountain Asia – scientific, local and indigenous knowledge
Reduced-order digital twin and latent data assimilation for global wildfire prediction
A user perspective on the avalanche danger scale – insights from North America
Characterizing the rate of spread of large wildfires in emerging fire environments of northwestern Europe using Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite active fire data
Evaluation of low-cost Raspberry Pi sensors for structure-from-motion reconstructions of glacier calving fronts
Temporal evolution of crack propagation characteristics in a weak snowpack layer: conditions of crack arrest and sustained propagation
A data-driven model for Fennoscandian wildfire danger
Equivalent hazard magnitude scale
Statistical modelling of air quality impacts from individual forest fires in New South Wales, Australia
Drivers of extreme burnt area in Portugal: fire weather and vegetation
Coupling wildfire spread simulations and connectivity analysis for hazard assessment: a case study in Serra da Cabreira, Portugal
Glacial lake outburst flood hazard under current and future conditions: worst-case scenarios in a transboundary Himalayan basin
What weather variables are important for wet and slab avalanches under a changing climate in a low-altitude mountain range in Czechia?
Modelling ignition probability for human- and lightning-caused wildfires in Victoria, Australia
Automated snow avalanche release area delineation in data-sparse, remote, and forested regions
The 2017 Split wildfire in Croatia: evolution and the role of meteorological conditions
Global assessment and mapping of ecological vulnerability to wildfires
Cristina Pérez-Guillén, Frank Techel, Michele Volpi, and Alec van Herwijnen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1331–1351, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1331-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1331-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This study assesses the performance and explainability of a random-forest classifier for predicting dry-snow avalanche danger levels during initial live testing. The model achieved ∼ 70 % agreement with human forecasts, performing equally well in nowcast and forecast modes, while capturing the temporal dynamics of avalanche forecasting. The explainability approach enhances the transparency of the model's decision-making process, providing a valuable tool for operational avalanche forecasting.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
John Sykes, Pascal Haegeli, Roger Atkins, Patrick Mair, and Yves Bühler
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1255–1292, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1255-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1255-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We model the decision-making of professional ski guides and develop decision support tools to assist with determining appropriate terrain based on current conditions. Our approach compares a manually constructed Bayesian network with machine learning classification models. The models accurately capture the real-world decision-making outcomes in 85–93 % of cases. Our conclusions focus on strengths and weaknesses of each model and discuss ramifications for practical applications in ski guiding.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Adam Emmer, Oscar Vilca, Cesar Salazar Checa, Sihan Li, Simon Cook, Elena Pummer, Jan Hrebrina, and Wilfried Haeberli
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1207–1228, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1207-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1207-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We describe in detail the most recent large landslide-triggered glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF) in the Peruvian Andes (the 2023 Rasac GLOF), analysing its preconditions and consequences, as well as the role of the changing climate. Our study contributes to understanding GLOF occurrence patterns in space and time and corroborates reports detailing the increasing frequency of such events in changing mountains.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Grant Statham and Cam Campbell
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1113–1137, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1113-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1113-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The Avalanche Terrain Exposure Scale (ATES) is an avalanche terrain rating system used for terrain assessment and risk communication in public and workplace avalanche safety practices. This paper introduces ATES v.2, an update that expands the original scale from three levels to five by including Class 0 – Non-avalanche terrain and Class 4 – Extreme terrain. The updated models for assessment and communication are described in detail, along with guidance for the application of ATES.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Audun Hetland, Rebecca A. Hetland, Tarjei Tveito Skille, and Andrea Mannberg
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 929–948, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-929-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-929-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Research on human factors in avalanche decision-making has become increasingly popular in the past 2 decades. The studies span a wide range of disciplines and are published in a variety of journals. To provide an overview of this literature, this study provides a systematic scoping review of human factors in avalanche decision-making. A total of 70 papers fulfilled the search criteria. We extracted data and sorted the papers according to their main themes.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Florian Herla, Pascal Haegeli, Simon Horton, and Patrick Mair
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 625–646, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-625-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-625-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We present a spatial framework for extracting information about avalanche problems from detailed snowpack simulations and compare the numerical results against operational assessments from avalanche forecasters. Despite good agreement in seasonal summary statistics, a comparison of daily assessments revealed considerable differences, while it remained unclear which data source represented reality the best. We discuss how snowpack simulations can add value to the forecasting process.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Katharina H. Horn, Stenka Vulova, Hanyu Li, and Birgit Kleinschmit
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 383–401, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-383-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-383-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
In this study we applied a random forest machine learning algorithm to model current and future forest fire susceptibility (FFS) in north-eastern Germany using anthropogenic, climatic, topographic, soil, and vegetation variables. Model accuracy ranged between 69 % and 71 %, showing moderately high model reliability for predicting FFS. The model results underline the importance of anthropogenic and vegetation parameters. This study will support regional forest fire prevention and management.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Bastian Bergfeld, Karl W. Birkeland, Valentin Adam, Philipp L. Rosendahl, and Alec van Herwijnen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 321–334, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-321-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-321-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
To release a slab avalanche, a crack in a weak snow layer beneath a cohesive slab has to propagate. Information on that is essential for assessing avalanche risk. In the field, information can be gathered with the propagation saw test (PST). However, there are different standards on how to cut the PST. In this study, we experimentally investigate the effect of these different column geometries and provide models to correct for imprecise field test geometry effects on the critical cut length.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Stephanie Bohlmann and Marko Laine
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4225–4235, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4225-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4225-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Probabilistic ensemble forecasts of the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index (FWI) can be used to estimate the possible wildfire risk but require post-processing to provide accurate and reliable predictions. This article presents a calibration method using non-homogeneous Gaussian regression to statistically post-process FWI forecasts up to 15 d. Calibration improves the forecast especially at short lead times and in regions with high fire risk.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Amelie Fees, Alec van Herwijnen, Michael Lombardo, Jürg Schweizer, and Peter Lehmann
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3387–3400, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3387-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3387-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Glide-snow avalanches release at the ground–snow interface, and their release process is poorly understood. To investigate the influence of spatial variability (snowpack and basal friction) on avalanche release, we developed a 3D, mechanical, threshold-based model that reproduces an observed release area distribution. A sensitivity analysis showed that the distribution was mostly influenced by the basal friction uniformity, while the variations in snowpack properties had little influence.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Kang He, Xinyi Shen, Cory Merow, Efthymios Nikolopoulos, Rachael V. Gallagher, Feifei Yang, and Emmanouil N. Anagnostou
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3337–3355, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3337-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3337-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
A framework combining a fire severity classification with a regression model to predict an indicator of fire severity derived from Landsat imagery (difference normalized burning ratio, dNBR) is proposed. The results show that the proposed predictive technique is capable of providing robust fire severity prediction information, which can be used for forecasting seasonal fire severity and, subsequently, impacts on biodiversity and ecosystems under projected future climate conditions.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Greta Hoe Wells, Þorsteinn Sæmundsson, Finnur Pálsson, Guðfinna Aðalgeirsdóttir, Eyjólfur Magnússon, Reginald L. Hermanns, and Snævarr Guðmundsson
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2002, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2002, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Glacier retreat elevates the risk of landslides released into proglacial lakes, which can trigger glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs). This study maps proglacial lake evolution and GLOF hazard scenarios at Fjallsjökull glacier, Iceland. Lake volume increased from 1945–2021 and is estimated to triple over the next century. Three slopes are prone to landslides that may trigger GLOFs. Results will mitigate flood hazard at this popular tourism site and advance GLOF research in Iceland and globally.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Håvard B. Toft, Samuel V. Verplanck, and Markus Landrø
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2757–2772, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2757-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2757-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study investigates inconsistencies in impact force as part of extended column tests (ECTs). We measured force-time curves from 286 practitioners in Scandinavia, Central Europe, and North America. The results show a large variability in peak forces and loading rates across wrist, elbow, and shoulder taps, challenging the ECT's reliability.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Florian Herla, Pascal Haegeli, Simon Horton, and Patrick Mair
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2727–2756, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2727-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2727-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Snowpack simulations are increasingly employed by avalanche warning services to inform about critical avalanche layers buried in the snowpack. However, validity concerns limit their operational value. We present methods that enable meaningful comparisons between snowpack simulations and regional assessments of avalanche forecasters to quantify the performance of the Canadian weather and snowpack model chain to represent thin critical avalanche layers on a large scale and in real time.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Philipp L. Rosendahl, Johannes Schneider, Grégoire Bobillier, Florian Rheinschmidt, Bastian Bergfeld, Alec van Herwijnen, and Philipp Weißgraeber
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-122, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-122, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
Our research investigates the role of anticracks in snowpacks and their impact on avalanche formation, focusing on anticracks due to weak layer collapse. We discovered that slab touchdown on the snow below the weak layer decreases the energy available for crack propagation, potentially leading to a stop of crack propagation. This underscores the importance of mechanical interactions in snowpack stability. Our work offers new insights for enhancing avalanche prediction and mitigation strategies.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Tandin Wangchuk and Ryota Tsubaki
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2523–2540, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2523-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2523-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
A glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF) is a natural hazard in which water from a glacier-fed lake is swiftly discharged, causing serious harm to life, infrastructure, and communities. We used numerical models to predict the potential consequences of a GLOF originating from the Thorthomi glacial lake in Bhutan. We found that if a GLOF occurs, the lake could release massive flood water within 4 h, posing a considerable risk. Study findings help to mitigate the impacts of future GLOFs.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Håvard B. Toft, John Sykes, Andrew Schauer, Jordy Hendrikx, and Audun Hetland
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1779–1793, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1779-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1779-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Manual Avalanche Terrain Exposure Scale (ATES) mapping is time-consuming and inefficient for large-scale applications. The updated algorithm for automated ATES mapping overcomes previous limitations by including forest density data, improving the avalanche runout estimations in low-angle runout zones, accounting for overhead exposure and open-source software. Results show that the latest version has significantly improved its performance.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Paula Aguirre, Jorge León, Constanza González-Mathiesen, Randy Román, Manuela Penas, and Alonso Ogueda
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1521–1537, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1521-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1521-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Wildfires pose a significant risk to property located in the wildland–urban interface (WUI). To assess and mitigate this risk, we need to understand which characteristics of buildings and building arrangements make them more prone to damage. We used a combination of data collection and analysis methods to study the vulnerability of dwellings in the WUI for case studies in Chile and concluded that the spatial arrangement of houses has a substantial impact on their vulnerability to wildfires.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Martín Domínguez Durán, María Angélica Sandoval Garzón, and Carme Huguet
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1319–1339, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1319-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1319-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
In this study we created a cost-effective alternative to bridge the baseline information gap on indoor radon (a highly carcinogenic gas) in regions where measurements are scarce. We model indoor radon concentrations to understand its spatial distribution and the potential influential factors. We evaluated the performance of this alternative using a small number of measurements taken in Bogotá, Colombia. Our results show that this alternative could help in the making of future studies and policy.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Julia Glaus, Katreen Wikstrom Jones, Perry Bartelt, Marc Christen, Lukas Stoffel, Johan Gaume, and Yves Bühler
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-771, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-771, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study assesses RAMMS::EXTENDED's predictive power in estimating avalanche run-out distances critical for mountain road safety. Leveraging meteorological data and sensitivity analysis, it offers meaningful predictions, aiding near real-time hazard assessments and future model refinement for improved decision-making.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Grégoire Bobillier, Bertil Trottet, Bastian Bergfeld, Ron Simenhois, Alec van Herwijnen, Jürg Schweizer, and Johan Gaume
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-70, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-70, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
Our study focuses on the initiation process of snow slab avalanches. By combining experimental data and numerical simulations, we show that on gentle slopes, a crack forms and propagates due to compression fracture within a weak layer, and on steep slopes, the crack velocity can increase dramatically after about 5 meters due to a fracture mode transition (compression to shear). Understanding these dynamics represents an essential additional piece in the dry-snow slab avalanche formation puzzle.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Monica Sund, Heidi A. Grønsten, and Siv Å. Seljesæter
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1185–1201, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1185-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1185-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Slushflows are rapid mass movements of water-saturated snow released in gently sloping terrain (< 30°), often unexpectedly. Early warning is crucial to prevent casualties and damage to infrastructure. A regional early warning for slushflow hazard was established in Norway in 2013–2014 and has been operational since. We present a methodology using the ratio between water supply and snow depth by snow type to assess slushflow hazard. This approach is useful for other areas with slushflow hazard.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Sophie Barthelemy, Bertrand Bonan, Jean-Christophe Calvet, Gilles Grandjean, David Moncoulon, Dorothée Kapsambelis, and Séverine Bernardie
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 999–1016, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-999-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-999-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This work presents a drought index specifically adapted to subsidence, a seasonal phenomenon of soil shrinkage that occurs frequently in France and damages buildings. The index is computed from land surface model simulations and evaluated by a rank correlation test with insurance data. With its optimal configuration, the index is able to identify years of both zero and significant loss.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
John Sykes, Håvard Toft, Pascal Haegeli, and Grant Statham
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 947–971, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-947-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-947-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The research validates and optimizes an automated approach for creating classified snow avalanche terrain maps using open-source geospatial modeling tools. Validation is based on avalanche-expert-based maps for two study areas. Our results show that automated maps have an overall accuracy equivalent to the average accuracy of three human maps. Automated mapping requires a fraction of the time and cost of traditional methods and opens the door for large-scale mapping of mountainous terrain.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Conor Hackett, Rafael de Andrade Moral, Gourav Mishra, Tim McCarthy, and Charles Markham
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-27, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-27, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
This paper reviews existing wildfire propagation models and a comparison of different grid types including random grids to simulate wildfires. This paper finds that irregular grids simulate wildfires more efficiently than continuous models while still retaining a reasonable level of similarity. It also shows that irregular grids tend to retain greater similarity to continuous models than regular grids at the cost of slightly longer computational times.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Jonas Mortelmans, Anne Felsberg, Gabriëlle J. M. De Lannoy, Sander Veraverbeke, Robert D. Field, Niels Andela, and Michel Bechtold
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 445–464, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-445-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-445-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
With global warming increasing the frequency and intensity of wildfires in the boreal region, accurate risk assessments are becoming more crucial than ever before. The Canadian Fire Weather Index (FWI) is a renowned system, yet its effectiveness in peatlands, where hydrology plays a key role, is limited. By incorporating groundwater data from numerical models and satellite observations, our modified FWI improves the accuracy of fire danger predictions, especially over summer.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Timothy W. Juliano, Fernando Szasdi-Bardales, Neil P. Lareau, Kasra Shamsaei, Branko Kosović, Negar Elhami-Khorasani, Eric P. James, and Hamed Ebrahimian
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 47–52, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-47-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-47-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Following the destructive Lahaina Fire in Hawaii, our team has modeled the wind and fire spread processes to understand the drivers of this devastating event. The simulation results show that extreme winds with high variability, a fire ignition close to the community, and construction characteristics led to continued fire spread in multiple directions. Our results suggest that available modeling capabilities can provide vital information to guide decision-making during wildfire events.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Stephanie Mayer, Frank Techel, Jürg Schweizer, and Alec van Herwijnen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3445–3465, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3445-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3445-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We present statistical models to estimate the probability for natural dry-snow avalanche release and avalanche size based on the simulated layering of the snowpack. The benefit of these models is demonstrated in comparison with benchmark models based on the amount of new snow. From the validation with data sets of quality-controlled avalanche observations and danger levels, we conclude that these models may be valuable tools to support forecasting natural dry-snow avalanche activity.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Wei Yang, Zhongyan Wang, Baosheng An, Yingying Chen, Chuanxi Zhao, Chenhui Li, Yongjie Wang, Weicai Wang, Jiule Li, Guangjian Wu, Lin Bai, Fan Zhang, and Tandong Yao
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3015–3029, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3015-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3015-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We present the structure and performance of the early warning system (EWS) for glacier collapse and river blockages in the southeastern Tibetan Plateau. The EWS warned of three collapse–river blockage chain events and seven small-scale events. The volume and location of the collapses and the percentage of ice content influenced the velocities of debris flows. Such a study is helpful for understanding the mechanism of glacier hazards and for establishing similar EWSs in other high-risk regions.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Alba Marquez Torres, Giovanni Signorello, Sudeshna Kumar, Greta Adamo, Ferdinando Villa, and Stefano Balbi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2937–2959, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2937-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2937-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Only by mapping fire risks can we manage forest and prevent fires under current and future climate conditions. We present a fire risk map based on k.LAB, artificial-intelligence-powered and open-source software integrating multidisciplinary knowledge in near real time. Through an easy-to-use web application, we model the hazard with 84 % accuracy for Sicily, a representative Mediterranean region. Fire risk analysis reveals 45 % of vulnerable areas face a high probability of danger in 2050.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Elisabeth D. Hafner, Frank Techel, Rodrigo Caye Daudt, Jan Dirk Wegner, Konrad Schindler, and Yves Bühler
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2895–2914, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2895-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2895-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Oftentimes when objective measurements are not possible, human estimates are used instead. In our study, we investigate the reproducibility of human judgement for size estimates, the mappings of avalanches from oblique photographs and remotely sensed imagery. The variability that we found in those estimates is worth considering as it may influence results and should be kept in mind for several applications.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Gerardo Romano, Marco Antonellini, Domenico Patella, Agata Siniscalchi, Andrea Tallarico, Simona Tripaldi, and Antonello Piombo
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2719–2735, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2719-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2719-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The Nirano Salse (northern Apennines, Italy) is characterized by several active mud vents and hosts thousands of visitors every year. New resistivity models describe the area down to 250 m, improving our geostructural knowledge of the area and giving useful indications for a better understanding of mud volcano dynamics and for the better planning of safer tourist access to the area.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Harry Podschwit, William Jolly, Ernesto Alvarado, Andrea Markos, Satyam Verma, Sebastian Barreto-Rivera, Catherine Tobón-Cruz, and Blanca Ponce-Vigo
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2607–2624, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2607-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2607-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We developed a model of fire spread that assumes that fire spreads in all directions at a constant speed and is extinguished at a constant rate. The model was fitted to 1003 fires in Peru between 2001 and 2020 using satellite burned area data from the GlobFire project. We fitted statistical models that predicted the spread and extinguish rates based on weather and land cover variables and found that these variables were good predictors of the spread and extinguish rates.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Anushilan Acharya, Jakob F. Steiner, Khwaja Momin Walizada, Salar Ali, Zakir Hussain Zakir, Arnaud Caiserman, and Teiji Watanabe
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2569–2592, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2569-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2569-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
All accessible snow and ice avalanches together with previous scientific research, local knowledge, and existing or previously active adaptation and mitigation solutions were investigated in the high mountain Asia (HMA) region to have a detailed overview of the state of knowledge and identify gaps. A comprehensive avalanche database from 1972–2022 is generated, including 681 individual events. The database provides a basis for the forecasting of avalanche hazards in different parts of HMA.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Caili Zhong, Sibo Cheng, Matthew Kasoar, and Rossella Arcucci
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1755–1768, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1755-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1755-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This paper introduces a digital twin fire model using machine learning techniques to improve the efficiency of global wildfire predictions. The proposed model also manages to efficiently adjust the prediction results thanks to data assimilation techniques. The proposed digital twin runs 500 times faster than the current state-of-the-art physics-based model.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Abby Morgan, Pascal Haegeli, Henry Finn, and Patrick Mair
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1719–1742, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1719-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1719-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The avalanche danger scale is a critical component for communicating the severity of avalanche hazard conditions to the public. We examine how backcountry recreationists in North America understand and use the danger scale for planning trips into the backcountry. Our results provide an important user perspective on the strengths and weaknesses of the existing scale and highlight opportunities for future improvements.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Adrián Cardíl, Victor M. Tapia, Santiago Monedero, Tomás Quiñones, Kerryn Little, Cathelijne R. Stoof, Joaquín Ramirez, and Sergio de-Miguel
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 361–373, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-361-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-361-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This study aims to unravel large-fire behavior in northwest Europe, a temperate region with a projected increase in wildfire risk. We propose a new method to identify wildfire rate of spread from satellites because it is important to know periods of elevated fire risk for suppression methods and land management. Results indicate that there is a peak in the area burned and rate of spread in the months of March and April, and there are significant differences for forest-type land covers.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Liam S. Taylor, Duncan J. Quincey, and Mark W. Smith
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 329–341, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-329-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-329-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Hazards from glaciers are becoming more likely as the climate warms, which poses a threat to communities living beneath them. We have developed a new camera system which can capture regular, high-quality 3D models to monitor small changes in glaciers which could be indicative of a future hazard. This system is far cheaper than more typical camera sensors yet produces very similar quality data. We suggest that deploying these cameras near glaciers could assist in warning communities of hazards.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Bastian Bergfeld, Alec van Herwijnen, Grégoire Bobillier, Philipp L. Rosendahl, Philipp Weißgraeber, Valentin Adam, Jürg Dual, and Jürg Schweizer
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 293–315, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-293-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-293-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
For a slab avalanche to release, the snowpack must facilitate crack propagation over large distances. Field measurements on crack propagation at this scale are very scarce. We performed a series of experiments, up to 10 m long, over a period of 10 weeks. Beside the temporal evolution of the mechanical properties of the snowpack, we found that crack speeds were highest for tests resulting in full propagation. Based on these findings, an index for self-sustained crack propagation is proposed.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Sigrid Jørgensen Bakke, Niko Wanders, Karin van der Wiel, and Lena Merete Tallaksen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 65–89, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-65-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-65-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, we developed a machine learning model to identify dominant controls of wildfire in Fennoscandia and produce monthly fire danger probability maps. The dominant control was shallow-soil water anomaly, followed by air temperature and deep soil water. The model proved skilful with a similar performance as the existing Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index (FWI). We highlight the benefit of using data-driven models jointly with other fire models to improve fire monitoring and prediction.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Yi Victor Wang and Antonia Sebastian
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 4103–4118, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-4103-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-4103-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
In this article, we propose an equivalent hazard magnitude scale and a method to evaluate and compare the strengths of natural hazard events across different hazard types, including earthquakes, tsunamis, floods, droughts, forest fires, tornadoes, cold waves, heat waves, and tropical cyclones. With our method, we determine that both the February 2021 North American cold wave event and Hurricane Harvey in 2017 were equivalent to a magnitude 7.5 earthquake in hazard strength.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Michael A. Storey and Owen F. Price
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 4039–4062, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-4039-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-4039-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Models are needed to understand and predict pollutant output from forest fires so fire agencies can reduce smoke-related risks to human health. We modelled air quality (PM2.5) based on fire area and weather variables. We found fire area and boundary layer height were influential on predictions, with distance, temperature, wind speed and relative humidity also important. The models predicted reasonably accurately in comparison to other existing methods but would benefit from further development.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Tomás Calheiros, Akli Benali, Mário Pereira, João Silva, and João Nunes
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 4019–4037, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-4019-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-4019-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Fire weather indices are used to assess the effect of weather on wildfires. Fire weather risk was computed and combined with large wildfires in Portugal. Results revealed the influence of vegetation cover: municipalities with a prevalence of shrublands, located in eastern parts, burnt under less extreme conditions than those with higher forested areas, situated in coastal regions. These findings are a novelty for fire science in Portugal and should be considered for fire management.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Ana C. L. Sá, Bruno Aparicio, Akli Benali, Chiara Bruni, Michele Salis, Fábio Silva, Martinho Marta-Almeida, Susana Pereira, Alfredo Rocha, and José Pereira
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3917–3938, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3917-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3917-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Assessing landscape wildfire connectivity supported by wildfire spread simulations can improve fire hazard assessment and fuel management plans. Weather severity determines the degree of fuel patch connectivity and thus the potential to spread large and intense wildfires. Mapping highly connected patches in the landscape highlights patch candidates for prior fuel treatments, which ultimately will contribute to creating fire-resilient Mediterranean landscapes.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Simon K. Allen, Ashim Sattar, Owen King, Guoqing Zhang, Atanu Bhattacharya, Tandong Yao, and Tobias Bolch
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3765–3785, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3765-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3765-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This study demonstrates how the threat of a very large outburst from a future lake can be feasibly assessed alongside that from current lakes to inform disaster risk management within a transboundary basin between Tibet and Nepal. Results show that engineering measures and early warning systems would need to be coupled with effective land use zoning and programmes to strengthen local response capacities in order to effectively reduce the risk associated with current and future outburst events.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Markéta Součková, Roman Juras, Kryštof Dytrt, Vojtěch Moravec, Johanna Ruth Blöcher, and Martin Hanel
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3501–3525, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3501-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3501-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Avalanches are natural hazards that threaten people and infrastructure. With climate change, avalanche activity is changing. We analysed the change in frequency and size of avalanches in the Krkonoše Mountains, Czechia, and detected important variables with machine learning tools from 1979–2020. Wet avalanches in February and March have increased, and slab avalanches have decreased and become smaller. The identified variables and their threshold levels may help in avalanche decision-making.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Annalie Dorph, Erica Marshall, Kate A. Parkins, and Trent D. Penman
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3487–3499, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3487-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3487-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Wildfire spatial patterns are determined by fire ignition sources and vegetation fuel moisture. Fire ignitions can be mediated by humans (owing to proximity to human infrastructure) or caused by lightning (owing to fuel moisture, average annual rainfall and local weather). When moisture in dead vegetation is below 20 % the probability of a wildfire increases. The results of this research enable accurate spatial mapping of ignition probability to aid fire suppression efforts and future research.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
John Sykes, Pascal Haegeli, and Yves Bühler
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3247–3270, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3247-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3247-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Automated snow avalanche terrain mapping provides an efficient method for large-scale assessment of avalanche hazards, which informs risk management decisions for transportation and recreation. This research reduces the cost of developing avalanche terrain maps by using satellite imagery and open-source software as well as improving performance in forested terrain. The research relies on local expertise to evaluate accuracy, so the methods are broadly applicable in mountainous regions worldwide.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Ivana Čavlina Tomašević, Kevin K. W. Cheung, Višnjica Vučetić, Paul Fox-Hughes, Kristian Horvath, Maja Telišman Prtenjak, Paul J. Beggs, Barbara Malečić, and Velimir Milić
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3143–3165, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3143-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3143-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
One of the most severe and impactful urban wildfire events in Croatian history has been reconstructed and analyzed. The study identified some important meteorological influences related to the event: the synoptic conditions of the Azores anticyclone, cold front, and upper-level shortwave trough all led to the highest fire weather index in 2017. A low-level jet, locally known as bura wind that can be explained by hydraulic jump theory, was the dynamic trigger of the event.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Fátima Arrogante-Funes, Inmaculada Aguado, and Emilio Chuvieco
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2981–3003, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2981-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2981-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We show that ecological value might be reduced by 50 % due to fire perturbation in ecosystems that have not developed in the presence of fire and/or that present changes in the fire regime. The biomes most affected are tropical and subtropical forests, tundra, and mangroves. Integration of biotic and abiotic fire regime and regeneration factors resulted in a powerful way to map ecological vulnerability to fire and develop assessments to generate adaptation plans of management in forest masses.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Cited articles
Abdel-Fattah, D., Trainor, S., Hood, E., Hock, R., and Kienholz, C.: User
Engagement in Developing Use-Inspired Glacial Lake Outburst Flood Decision
Support Tools in Juneau and the Kenai Peninsula, Alaska, Front. Earth
Sci., 9, 635163, https://doi.org/10.3389/feart.2021.635163, 2021.
Aggarwal, A., Frey, H., McDowell, G., Drenkhan, F., Nüsser, M.,
Racoviteanu, A., and Hoelzle, M.: Adaptation to climate change induced water
stress in major glacierized mountain regions, Clim. Dev., 14, 665–677,
https://doi.org/10.1080/17565529.2021.1971059, 2021.
Aggarwal, S., Rai, S., Thakur, P. K., and Emmer, A.: Inventory and recently
increasing GLOF susceptibility of glacial lakes in Sikkim, Eastern Himalaya,
Geomorphology, 30, 39–54, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geomorph.2017.06.014, 2017.
Allen, S. K., Linsbauer, A., Randhawa, S. S., Huggel, C., Rana, P., and Kumari, A.: Glacial lake outburst flood risk in Himachal Pradesh, India: an integrative and anticipatory approach considering current and future threats, Natural Hazards, 84, 1741–1763, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-016-2511-x, 2016.
Allen, S. K., Zhang, G., Wang, W., Yao, T., and Bolch, T.: Potentially dangerous glacial lakes across the Tibetan Plateau revealed using a large-scale automated assessment approach, Sci. Bull., 64, 435–445, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scib.2019.03.011, 2019.
Allison, E. A.: The spiritual significance of glaciers in an age of climate
change, WIREs Climate Change, 6, 493–508, https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.354, 2015.
Anacona, P. I., Kinney, J., Schaefer, M., Harrison, S., Wilson, R., Segovia,
A., Mazzorana, B., Guerra, F., Farias, D., Reynolds, J. M., and Glasser, N. F.:
Glacier protection laws: Potential conflicts in managing glacial hazards and
adapting to climate change, Ambio, 47, 835–845,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s13280-018-1043-x, 2018.
Andreassen, L. M., Nagy, T., Kjøllmoen, B., and Leigh, J. R.: An inventory
of Norway's glaciers and ice-marginal lakes from 2018-2019 Sentinel-2 data,
J. Glaciol., 1–22, https://doi.org/10.1017/jog.2022.20, 2022.
Anyia, M., Dusaillant, A., O'Kuinghttons, J., Barcaza, G., and Bravo, S.:
GLOFs of Laguna Témpanos, glacier-dammed side lake of Glaciar Steffen,
Hielo Patagónico Norte, Chile, since 1974, Bull. Glaciol.
Res., 38, 13–24, https://doi.org/10.5331/bgr.20R01, 2020.
Atenstaedt, R.: Word cloud analysis of the BJGP: 5 years on, Br. J. Gen.
Pract., 67, 231–232, https://doi.org/10.3399/bjgp17X690833, 2017.
Bat'ka, J., Vilímek, V., Štefanová, E., Cook, S. J., and Emmer,
A.: Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs) in the Cordillera Huayhuash, Peru:
Historic Events and Current Susceptibility, Water, 12, 2664,
https://doi.org/10.3390/w12102664, 2020.
Blauvelt, D. J., Russell, A. J., Large, A. R. G., Tweed, F. S., Hiemstra, J. F.,
Kulessa, B., Evans, D. J. A., and Waller, R. I.: Controls on
jokulhlaup-transported buried ice melt-out at Skeioararsandur, Iceland:
Implications for the evolution of ice-marginal environments, Geomorphology,
360, 107164, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geomorph.2020.107164, 2020.
Buckel, J., Otto, J. C., Prasicek, G., and Keuschnig, M.: Glacial lakes in
Austria – Distribution and formation since the Little Ice Age, Global
Planet. Change, 164, 39–51, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2018.03.003, 2018.
Bureau of Reclamation: Guidelines for defining inundated areas downstream from Bureau of Reclamation dams, Reclamation Planning Instruction No. 82–11, U.S. Department of the Interior, Bureau of Reclamation, Denver, 25, 1982.
Byers, A. C., Rounce, D.R., Shugar, D. H., Lala, J. M., Byers, E. A., and Regmi, D.: A rockfall-induced glacial lake outburst flood, Upper Barun Valley,
Nepal, Landslides, 16, 533–549, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10346-018-1079-9, 2019.
Carey, M.: Living and dying with glaciers: people's historical
vulnerability to avalanches and outburst floods in Peru, Glob. Planet.
Change, 47, 122–134, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2004.10.007, 2005.
Carey, M.: In the Shadow of Melting Glaciers: Climate Change and Andean
Society, Oxford University Press, New York, USA,
https://doi.org/10.1093/acprof:oso/9780195396065.001.0001, 2010.
Carey, M., Huggel, C., Bury, J., Portocarrero, C., and Haeberli, W.: An
Integrated Socio-Environmental Framework for Glacier Hazard Management and
Climate Change Adaptation: Lessons from Lake 513, Cordillera Blanca, Peru,
Clim. Change, 112, 733–767, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-011-0249-8, 2012.
Carey, M., Moulton, H., Barton, J., Craig, D., Provant, Z., Shoop, C.,
Travers, J., Trombley, J., and Uscanga, A.: Justicia glaciar en Los Andes y
más allá, Ambiente, Comportamiento y Sociedad, 3, 28–38,
https://doi.org/10.51343/racs.v3i2.584, 2020.
Carey, M., McDowell, G., Huggel, C., Marshall, B., Moulton, H.,
Portocarrero, C., Provant, Z., Reynolds, J. M., and Vicuña, L.: A
socio-cryospheric systems approach to glacier hazards, glacier runoff
variability, and climate change, in: Snow
and Ice-Related Hazards, Risks, and Disasters, edited by: Haeberli, W., Whiteman, C., Elsevier, Amsterdam, the Netherlands, 215–257,
https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-12-817129-5.00018-4 2021.
Carrivick, J. L. and Tweed, F. S.: A global assessment of the societal impacts
of glacier outburst floods, Glob. Planet. Chang., 144, 1–16,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2016.07.001, 2016.
Carrivick, J. L. and Tweed, F. S.: A review of glacier outburst floods in
Iceland and Greenland with a megafloods perspective, Earth-Sci. Rev.,
196, 102876, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.earscirev.2019.102876, 2019.
Carrivick, J. L., Tweed, F. S., Ng, F., Quincey, D. J., Mallalieu, J.,
Ingeman-Nielsen, T., Mikkelsen, A. B., Palmer, S. J., Yde, J. C., Homer, R.,
Russell, A. J., and Hubbard, A.: Ice-dammed lake drainage evolution at Russell
Glacier, West Greenland, Front. Earth Sci., 5, 100,
https://doi.org/10.3389/feart.2017.00100, 2017.
Cenderelli D. A. and Wohl E. E.: Flow hydraulics and geomorphic effects of
glacial-lake outburst floods in the Mount Everest region, Nepal, Earth
Surf. Proc. Land., 28, 385–407, https://doi.org/10.1002/esp.448, 2003.
Cicoira, A., Blatny, L., Li, X., Trottet, B., and Gaume, J.: Towards a
predictive multi-phase model for alpine mass movements and process cascades,
preprint, https://doi.org/10.31223/X59S51, 2021.
Clague, J. J. and Evans, S. G.: A review of catastrophic drainage of
moraine-dammed lakes in British Columbia, Quat. Sci. Rev., 19,
1763–1783, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0277-3791(00)00090-1, 2000.
Clague, J. J. and O'Connor, J. E.: Glacier-related outburst floods, in: Snow and ice-related hazards, risks, and disasters, edited by: Haeberli, W. and Whiteman, C., Elsevier, Amsterdam, The Netherlands, 487–519,
https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-12-817129-5.00019-6, 2015.
Clague, J. J., Huggel, C., Korup, O., and McGuire, B.: Climate change and
hazardous processes in high mountains, Revista de la Asociación
Geológica Argentina, 69, 328–338, https://doi.org/10.5167/uzh-77920, 2012.
Cook, K. L., Andermann, C., Gimbert, F., Adhikari, B. R., and Hovius, N.:
Glacial lake outburst floods as drivers of fluvial erosion in the Himalaya,
Science, 362, 53–57, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aat4981, 2018.
Correas-Gonzalez, M., Moreiras, S., Jomelli, V., and Arnaud-Fassetta, G.:
Ice-dammed lake outburst flood risk in the Plomo basin, Central Andes
(33∘ S): Perspectives from historical events, Cuadernos de
Investigación Geográfica, 46, 223–249, 2020.
Costa, J. E.: Floods from dam failures, U.S. Geological Survey, Open-File Rep. No. Denver, 54, 85–560, 1985.
Costa, J. E. and Schuster, R. L.: The formation and failure of natural dams,
Geol. Soc. Am. Bull., 100, 1054–1068, https://doi.org/10.1130/0016-7606(1988)100<1054:TFAFON>2.3.CO;2, 1988.
Da Silva, J. A. T. and Dobranszki, J.: Multiple versions of the h-index:
Cautionary use for formal academic purposes, Scientometrics, 115,
1107–1113, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11192-018-2680-3, 2018.
Dayirov, M. and Narama, C.: Formation and Outburst of the Toguz-Bulak
Glacial Lake in the Northern Teskey Range, Tien Shan, Kyrgyzstan,
Geosciences, 10, 468, https://doi.org/10.3390/geosciences10110468, 2020.
Drenkhan, F., Huggel, C., Guardamino, L., and Haeberli, W.: Managing risks
and future options from new lakes in the deglaciating Andes of Peru: The
example of the Vilcanota-Urubamba basin, Sci. Total Environ.,
665, 465–483, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.02.070, 2019.
Emmer, A.: Geomorphologically effective floods from moraine-dammed lakes in
the Cordillera Blanca, Peru. Quat. Sci. Rev., 177, 220–234,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2017.10.028, 2017.
Emmer, A.: GLOFs in the WOS: bibliometrics, geographies and global trends of research on glacial lake outburst floods (Web of Science, 1979–2016), Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 813–827, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-813-2018, 2018.
Emmer, A.: The careers behind and the impact of solo author articles in
Nature and Science, Scientometrics, 120, 825–840, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11192-019-03145-5, 2019.
Emmer, A., Cuřín, V., Daněk, J., Duchková, H., and Krpec,
P.: The Top-Viewed Cryosphere Videos on YouTube: An Overview, Geosciences,
9, 181, https://doi.org/10.3390/geosciences9040181, 2019.
Emmer, A., Harrison, S., Mergili, M., Allen, S., Frey, H. and Huggel, C.:
70 years of lake evolution and glacial lake outburst floods in the
Cordillera Blanca (Peru) and implications for the future, Geomorphology,
365, 107178, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geomorph.2020.107178, 2020.
Emmer, A., Wood, J. L., Cook, S. J., Harrison, S., Wilson, R., Diaz-Moreno,
A., Reynolds, J. M., Torres, J. C., Yarleque, C., Mergili, M., Jara, H. W.,
Bennett, G., Caballero, A., Glasser, N. F., Melgarejo, E., Riveros, C.,
Shannon, S., Turpo, E., Tinoco, T., Torres, L., Garay, D., Villafane, H.,
Garrido, H., Martinez, C., Apaza, N., Araujo, J., and Poma, C.: 160 Glacial
lake outburst floods (GLOFs) across the Tropical Andes since the Little Ice
Age, Global Planet. Change, 208, 103722,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2021.103722, 2022.
Evans, S. G. and Clague, J. J.: Recent climatic change and catastrophic
processes in mountain environments, Geomorphology, 10, 107–128,
https://doi.org/10.1016/0169-555X(94)90011-6, 1994.
Figueiredo, A. R., Simões, J. C., Menegat, R., Strauss, S., and
Rodrigues, B. B.: Perceptions of and adaptation to climate change in the
Cordillera Blanca, Peru, Sociedade & Natureza, 31, 1–22,
https://doi.org/10.14393/SN-v31-2019-45623, 2019.
Fire, M. and Guestrin, C.: Over-optimization of academic publishing metrics:
observing Goodhart's Law in action, Gigascience, 8, giz053,
https://doi.org/10.1093/gigascience/giz053, 2019.
Fischer, M., Korup, O., Veh, G., and Walz, A.: Controls of outbursts of moraine-dammed lakes in the greater Himalayan region, The Cryosphere, 15, 4145–4163, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-4145-2021, 2021.
Frey, H., Huggel, C., Chisolm, R. E., Baer, P., McArdell, B., Cochachin, A.,
and Portocarrero, C.: Multi-Source Glacial Lake Outburst Flood Hazard
Assessment and Mapping for Huaraz, Cordillera Blanca, Peru, Front. Earth Sci., 6, 210, https://doi.org/10.3389/feart.2018.00210, 2018.
Frey, L., Frey, H., Huss, M., Allen, S., Farinotti, D., Huggel, C., Emmer, A., and Shugar, D.: A global inventory of potential future glacial lakes, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-4774, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-4774, 2021.
Froehlich, D. C.: Peak outflow from breached embankment dam, J. Water Resour. Plan. Manage. Div., 121, 90–97, https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)0733-9496(1995)121:1(90), 1995.
Furian, W., Loibl, D. and Schneider, C.: Future glacial lakes in High
Mountain Asia: an inventory and assessment of hazard potential from
surrounding slopes, J. Glaciol., 67, 653–670,
https://doi.org/10.1017/jog.2021.18, 2021.
Gagné, K.: Caring for Glaciers: Land, Animals, and Humanity in the
Himalayas, University of Washington Press, Seattle, 258 p., ISBN 9780295744001, 2019.
Gall, M., Nguyen, K. H., and Cutter, L. S.: Integrated research on disaster
risk: Is it really integrated?, Int. J. Disast. Risk Re., 12, 255–267, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2015.01.010, 2015.
GAPHAZ: Assessment of Glacier and Permafrost Hazards in Mountain
Regions – Technical Guidance Document, in: Standing Group on Glacier and Permafrost Hazards in
Mountains (GAPHAZ) of the International Association of Cryospheric Sciences
(IACS) and the International Permafrost Association (IPA), prepared and edited by: Allen, S., Frey, H.,
Huggel, C. et al., Zurich,
Switzerland/Lima, Peru, 72 p., https://doi.org/10.13140/RG.2.2.26332.90245, 2017.
Gaume, J., Gast, T., Teran, J., van Herwijnen, A., and Jiang, C.: Dynamic
anticrack propagation in snow, Nat. Commun., 9, 3047,
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-018-05181-w, 2018.
Gearheard, S. F., Kielsen Holm, L., Huntington, H., Mello Leavitt, J.,
Mahoney, A. R., Opie, M., Oshima, T., and Sanguya, J.: The Meaning of Ice:
People and Sea Ice in Three Arctic Communities, Hanover, Germany, NH: International Polar Institute Press, 366 p., ISBN 9780982170397, 2013.
Geertsema, M., Menounous, B., Bullard, G., Carrivick, J. L., Clague, J. J.,
Dai, C., Donati, D., Ekstrom, G., Jackson, J. M., Lynett, P., Pichierri, M.,
Pon, A., Shugar, D. H., Stead, D., Del Bel Belluz, J., Friele, P.,
Giesbrecht, I., Heathfield, D., Millard, T., Nasonova, S., Schaeffer, A. J.,
Ward, B. C., Blaney, E., Brillon, C., Bunn, C., Floyd, W., Higman, B.,
Hughes, K. E., McInnes, W., Mukherjee, K., and Sharp, M. A.: The 28 November 2020 Landslide, Tsunami, and Outburst Flood – A Hazard Cascade Associated With Rapid Deglaciation at Elliot Creek, British Columbia, Canada, Geophys.
Res. Lett., 49, e2021GL096716, doi: e2021GL096716, 2022.
Gharehchahi, S., James, W., Bhardwaj, A., Jensen, J., Sam, L., Ballinger,
T. J., and Butler, D. R.: Glacier Ice Thickness Estimation and Future Lake
Formation in Swiss Southwestern Alps-The Upper Rhône Catchment: A VOLTA
Application, Remote Sens., 12, 3443, https://doi.org/10.3390/rs12203443, 2020.
Ghosh, T. K., Jakobsen, F., Joshi, M., and Pareta, K.: Extreme rainfall and
vulnerability assessment: case study of Uttarakhand rivers, Nat. Hazard.,
99, 665–687, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-019-03765-3, 2019.
Gruber, F. E. and Mergili, M.: Regional-scale analysis of high-mountain multi-hazard and risk indicators in the Pamir (Tajikistan) with GRASS GIS, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 13, 2779–2796, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-2779-2013, 2013.
Haeberli, W.: Frequency characteristics of glacier floods in The Swiss Alps, Ann. Glaciol., 4, 85–90, 1983.
Haeberli, W. and Drenkhan, F.: Future Lake Development in Deglaciating
Mountain Ranges, in: Oxford research encyclopedias –
natural hazard science, edited by: Cutter, L. S., Oxford University Press, 1–45, https://doi.org/10.1093/acrefore/9780199389407.013.361, 2022.
Haeberli, W., Schaub, Y., and Huggel, C.: Increasing risks related to
landslides from degrading permafrost into new lakes in de-glaciating
mountain ranges, Geomorphology, 293, 405–417, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geomorph.2016.02.009, 2017.
Harrison, S., Kargel, J. S., Huggel, C., Reynolds, J., Shugar, D. H., Betts, R. A., Emmer, A., Glasser, N., Haritashya, U. K., Klimeš, J., Reinhardt, L., Schaub, Y., Wiltshire, A., Regmi, D., and Vilímek, V.: Climate change and the global pattern of moraine-dammed glacial lake outburst floods, The Cryosphere, 12, 1195–1209, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-1195-2018, 2018.
Haverkamp, J.: Collaborative survival and the politics of livability:
Towards adaptation otherwise, World Development, 137, 1–14,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2020.105152, 2021.
Hewitt, K.: Natural dams and outburst floods of the Karakoram Himalaya, in: Aspects of Alpine and High Mountain Areas, Proceedings of the Exeter Symposium Hydrological, July 1982, IAHS, Great Yarmouth (UK), 259–269, 1983.
Holm, L. K., Grenoble, L. A., and Virginia, R. A.: A praxis for ethical research
and scientific conduct in Greenland, Etudes Inuit, Inuit Studies, 35,
187–200, https://doi.org/10.7202/1012841ar, 2011.
Hovden, A. and Havnevik, H.: Balancing the sacred landscape: environmental
management in Limi, North-Western Nepal, in: Cosmopolitical Ecologies Across Asia: Places and Practices of Power in Changing Environments, edited by: Kuyakanon, R., Diemberger, H., and Sneath, D., Routledge, New York, 83–101, eBook ISBN 9781003036272, 2021.
How, P., Messerli, A., Mätzler, E., Santoro, M., Wiesmann, A., Caduff,
R., Langley, K., Bojesen, M. H., Kääb, A., and Carrivick, J.:
Greenland-wide inventory of ice marginal lakes using a multi-method
approach, Sci. Rep., 11, 4481, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-83509-1, 2021.
Huggel, C., Carey, M., Clague, J., and Kääb, A.: The
High-Mountain Cryosphere: Environmental Changes and Human Risks, New York,
Cambridge University Press, 376 p., https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9781107588653, 2015.
Huggel, C., Carey, M., Emmer, A., Frey, H., Walker-Crawford, N., and Wallimann-Helmer, I.: Anthropogenic climate change and glacier lake outburst flood risk: local and global drivers and responsibilities for the case of lake Palcacocha, Peru, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2175–2193, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2175-2020, 2020a.
Huggel, C., Cochachin, A., Drenkhan, F., Fluixá-Sanmartín, J.,
Frey, H., García Hernández, J., Jurt, C., Muñoz, R., Price, K.,
and Vicuña, L.: Glacier Lake 513, Peru: Lessons for early warning
service development, WMO Bull., 69, 45–52, 2020b.
Jacquet, J., McCoy, S. W., McGrath, D., Nimick, D. A., Fahey, M.,
O'Kuinghttons, J., Friesen, B. A., and Leidich, J.: Hydrologic and geomorphic
changes resulting from episodic glacial lake outburst floods: Rio Colonia,
Patagonia, Chile, Geophys. Res. Lett., 44, 854–864,
https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GL071374, 2017.
Kargel, J. S., Leonard, G. J., Shugar, D. H., Haritashya, U. K., Bevington, A., Fielding, E. J., Fujita, K., Geertsema, M., Miles, E. S., Steiner, J., Anderson, E., Bajracharya, S., Bawden,B. W., Breashears, D. F., Byers, A., Collins, B., Dhital, M. R., Donnellan, A., Evans, T. L., Geai, M. L., Glasscoe, M. T., Green, D., Gurung, D. R., Heijenk, R., Hilborn, A., Hudnut, K., Huyck, C., Immerzeel, W. W., Li, J., Jibson, R., Kaab, A., Khanal, N. R., Kirschbaum, D., Kraaijenbrink, P. D. A., Lamsal, D., Shiyin, L., Mingyang, L., McKinney, D., Nahirnick, D. K., Zhuotong, N., Ojha, S., Olsenholler, J., Painter, T. H., Pleasants, M., Pratima, K. C., Yuan, Q. I., Raup, B. H., Regmi, D., Rounce, D. R., Sakai, A., Donghui, S., Shea, J. M., Shrestha, A. B., Shukla, A., Stumm, D., van der Kooij, M., Voss, K., Xin, W., Weihs, B., Lizong, W., Xiaojun, Y., Yoder, M. R., and Young, N.: Geomorphic and geologic controls of geohazards induced by Nepal’s 2015 Gorkha earthquake, Science, 351, aac8353-1–aac8353-10, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aac8353, 2016.
Kelman, I., Mercer, J., and Gaillard, J. C.: Indigenous knowledge and disaster risk reduction, Geography, 97, 12–21, 2012.
Khan, G., Ali, S., Xu, X. K., Qureshi, J. A., Ali, M., and Karim, I.: Expansion
of Shishper Glacier lake and recent glacier lake outburst flood (GLOF),
Gilgit-Baltistan, Pakistan, Environ. Sci. Pollut. Res.,
28, 20290–20298, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-020-11929-z, 2021.
Kienholz, C., Pierce, J., Hood, E., Amundson, J. M., Wolken, G. J., Jacobs,
A., Hart, S., Jones, K. W., Abdel-Fattah, D., Johnson, C., and Conaway, J. S.:
Deglacierization of a Marginal Basin and Implications for Outburst Floods,
Mendenhall Glacier, Alaska. Front. Earth Sci., 8, 137,
https://doi.org/10.3389/feart.2020.00137, 2020.
Kirschbaum, D., Watson, C. S., Rounce, D. R., Shugar, D. H., Kargel, J. S., Haritashya, U. K., Amatya, P., Shean, D., Anderson, E. R., and Jo, M.: The State of Remote Sensing Capabilities of Cascading Hazards Over High Mountain Asia. Frontiers in Earth Science, 7, 197, https://doi.org/10.3389/feart.2019.00197, 2019.
Klimeš, J., Novotný, J., Cochachin, A. R., Balek, J.,
Zahradníček, P., Sana, H., Frey, H., René, M.,
Štěpánek, P., Meitner, J., and Junghardt, J.: Paraglacial Rock
Slope Stability Under Changing Environmental Conditions, Safuna Lakes,
Cordillera Blanca Peru, Front. Earth Sci., 9, 607277,
https://doi.org/10.3389/feart.2021.607277, 2021.
Kougkoulos, I., Cook, S. J., Edwards, L. A., Clarke, L. J., Symeonakis, E.,
Dortch, J. M., and Nesbitt, K.: Modelling glacial lake outburst flood impacts
in the Bolivian Andes, Nat. Hazard., 94, 1415–1438,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-018-3486-6, 2018a.
Kougkoulos, I., Cook, S. J., Jomelli, V., Clarke, L., Symeonakis, E., Dortch,
J. M., Edwards, L. A., and Merad, M.: Use of multi-criteria decision analysis
to identify potentially dangerous glacial lakes, Sci. Total Environ., 621, 1453–1466, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.10.083, 2018b.
Kumar, R., Bahuguna, I. M., Ali, S. N., and Singh, R.: Lake Inventory and
Evolution of Glacial Lakes in the Nubra-Shyok Basin of Karakoram Range,
Earth Sys. Environ., 4, 57–70, https://doi.org/10.1007/s41748-019-00129-6,
2020.
Lambert, S. J. and Scott, J. C.: International Disaster Risk Reduction
Strategies and Indigenous Peoples, International Indigenous Policy Journal,
10, 2, https://doi.org/10.18584/iipj.2019.10.2.2, 2019.
Li, D. Y. and Zhou, X. L.: “Leave your footprints in my words” – A
georeferenced word-cloud approach, Environ. Plan. A, 49, 489–492,
https://doi.org/10.1177/0308518X16662273, 2017.
Li, D., Lu, X., Overeem, I., Walling, D. E., Syvitski, J., Kettner, A. J.,
Bookhagen, B., Zhou, Y., and Zhang, T.: Exceptional increases in fluvial
sediment fluxes in a warmer and wetter High Mountain Asia, Science,
374, 599–603, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.abi9649, 2021.
Li, D., Lu, X., Walling, D. E., Zhang, T., Steiner, J. F., Wasson, R. J.,
Harrison, S., Nepal, S., Nie, Y., Immerzeel, W. W., Shugar, D. H., Koppes, M.,
Lane, S., Zeng, Z., Sun, W., Yegorov, A., and Bolch, T:: High Mountain Asia
hydropower systems threatened by climate-driven landscape instability, Nat.
Geosci., 15, 520–530, 2022.
Lindgren, P. R., Farquharson, L. M., Romanovsky, V. E., and Grosse, G.:
Landsat-based lake distribution and changes in western Alaska permafrost
regions between the 1970s and 2010s, Environ. Res. Lett., 16,
025006, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abd270, 2021.
MacDonald, T. C. and Langridge-Monopolis, J.: Breaching Charateristics of Dam Failures, J. Hydraul. Eng., 110, 567–586, https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)0733-9429(1984)110:5(567), 1984.
Maharjan, S. B., Steiner, J. F., Shrestha, A. B., Maharjan, A., Nepal, S.,
Shrestha, M. S., Bajracjarya, B., Rasul, G., Shrestha, M., Jackson, M., and
Gupta, N.: The Melamchi flood disaster: cascading hazard and the need for
multihazard risk management. International Centre for Integrated Mountain
Development (ICIMOD), Kathmandu, 19 p., https://doi.org/10.53055/ICIMOD.981, 2021.
Mal, S., Allen, S., Frey, H., Huggel, C., and Dimri, A. P.: Sector-wise
assessment of Glacial Lake Outburst Flood danger in the Indian Himalayan
Region, Mt. Res. Dev., 41, R1–R12, https://doi.org/10.1659/MRD-JOURNAL-D-20-00043.1, 2021.
Martín-Martín, A., Orduna-Malea, E., Thelwall, M., and Delgado
López-Córzar, E.: Google Scholar, Web of Science, and Scopus: A
systematic comparison of citations in 252 subject categories, J.
Informetrics, 12, 1160–1177, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.joi.2018.09.002, 2018.
Matti, S. and Ögmundardóttir, H.: Local knowledge of emerging
hazards: Instability above an Icelandic glacier, Int. J. Disast. Risk Reduction, 58, 102187, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2021.102187, 2021.
Matti, S., Ögmundardóttir, H., Aðalgeirsdóttir, G., and
Reichardt, U.: Psychosocial response to a no-build zone: Managing landslide
risk in Iceland, Land Use Policy, 117, 106078,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landusepol.2022.106078, 2022a.
Matti, S., Ögmundardóttir, H., Aðalgeirsdóttir, G., and
Reichardt, U.: Communicating the risk of a large landslide above a glacier
with foreign tourism employees in Iceland, Mt. Res. Dev., 42, D1–D12, https://doi.org/10.1659/MRD-JOURNAL-D-21-00051.1, 2022b.
McGee, R. G. and Craig, J. C.: What is being published? A word cloud of titles
from the journal of paediatrics and child health, J. Paediatr. Child Health,
48, 452, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1440-1754.2012.02455.x, 2012.
McKillop, R. J. and Clague, J. J.: Statistical, remote sensing-based
approach for estimating the probability of catastrophic drainage
from moraine-dammed lakes in southwestern British Columbia,
Global Planet. Change, 56, 153–171, 2007a.
McKillop, R. J. and Clague, J. J.: A procedure for making objective
preliminary assessments of outburst flood hazard from moraine-dammed lakes in southwestern British Columbia, Nat. Hazards,
41, 131–157, 2007b.
Mercer, J., Kelman, I., Taranis, L., and Suchet-Pearson, S.: Framework for
integrating indigenous and scientific knowledge for disaster risk reduction,
Disasters, 34, 214–239, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-7717.2009.01126.x, 2010.
Mergili, M., Krenn, J., and Chu, H.-J.: r.randomwalk v1, a multi-functional conceptual tool for mass movement routing, Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 4027–4043, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-4027-2015, 2015.
Mergili, M. and Pudasaini, S. P.: r.avaflow – The open source mass flow
simulation model, https://www.avaflow.org/, last access: 1 October 2021.
Mergili, M., Fischer, J.-T., Krenn, J., and Pudasaini, S. P.: r.avaflow v1, an advanced open-source computational framework for the propagation and interaction of two-phase mass flows, Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 553–569, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-553-2017, 2017.
Mergili, M., Emmer, A., Juřicová, A., Cochachin, A., Fischer, J.-T.,
Huggel, C., and Pudasaini, S. P.: How well can we simulate complex
hydro-geomorphic process chains? The 2012 multi-lake outburst flood in the
Santa Cruz Valley (Cordillera Blanca, Perú), Earth Surf. Proc.
Land., 43, 1373–1389, https://doi.org/10.1002/esp.4318, 2018a.
Mergili, M., Frank, B., Fischer, J.-T., Huggel, C., and Pudasaini, S. P.:
Computational experiments on the 1962 and 1970 landslide events at
Huascarán (Peru) with r.avaflow: Lessons learned for predictive mass
flow simulations, Geomorphology, 322, 15–28,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geomorph.2018.08.032, 2018b.
Mergili, M., Pudasaini, S. P., Emmer, A., Fischer, J.-T., Cochachin, A., and Frey, H.: Reconstruction of the 1941 GLOF process chain at Lake Palcacocha (Cordillera Blanca, Peru), Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 93–114, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-93-2020, 2020.
Mölg, N., Huggel, C., Herold, T., Storck, F., Allen, S., Haeberli, W.,
Schaub, Y., and Odermatt, D.: Inventory and evolution of glacial lakes since
the Little Ice Age: Lessons from the case of Switzerland, Earth Surf.
Proc. Land., 46, 2551–2564, https://doi.org/10.1002/esp.5193, 2021.
Mongeon, P. and Paul-Hus, A.: The journal coverage of Web of Science and
Scopus: a comparative analysis, Scientometrics, 106, 213–228,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s11192-015-1765-5, 2016.
Moulton, H., Carey, M., Huggel, C., and Motschmann, A.: Narratives of ice
loss: New approaches to shrinking glaciers and climate change adaptation,
Geoforum, 125, 47–56, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geoforum.2021.06.011, 2021.
Motschmann, A., Huggel, C., Carey, M., Moulton, H., Walker-Crawford, N., and
Muñoz, R.: Losses and damages connected to glacier retreat in the
Cordillera Blanca, Peru, Clim. Change, 162, 837–858,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-020-02770-x, 2020a.
Motschmann, A., Huggel, C., Muñoz, R., and Thür, A.: Towards
integrated assessments of water risks in deglaciating mountain areas: water
scarcity and GLOF risk in the Peruvian Andes, Geoenviron. Dis., 7,
1–18, https://doi.org/10.1186/s40677-020-00159-7, 2020b.
Muhammad, S., Li, J., Steiner, J. F., Shrestha, F., Shah, G. M., Berthier, E.,
Guo, L., Wu, L.-X., and Tian, L.: A holistic view of Shisper Glacier surge
and outburst floods: from physical processes to downstream impacts,
Geomat., Nat. Hazard. Risk, 12, 2755–2775,
https://doi.org/10.1080/19475705.2021.1975833, 2021.
Muneeb, F., Baig, S. U., Khan, J. A., and Khokhar, F.: Inventory and GLOF
Susceptibility of Glacial Lakes in Hunza River Basin, Western Karakorum,
Remote Sens., 13, 1794, https://doi.org/10.3390/rs13091794, 2021.
Nie, Y., Liu, Q., Wang, J., Zhang, Y., Sheng, Y., and Liu, S.: An inventory
of historical glacial lake outburst floods in the Himalayas based on remote
sensing observations and geomorphological analysis, Geomorphology, 308,
91–106, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geomorph.2018.02.002, 2018.
Ogier, C., Werder, M. A., Huss, M., Kull, I., Hodel, D., and Farinotti, D.: Drainage of an ice-dammed lake through a supraglacial stream: hydraulics and thermodynamics, The Cryosphere, 15, 5133–5150, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-5133-2021, 2021.
Otto, J.-C., Helfricht, K., Prasicek, G., Binder, D., and Kueschnig, M.:
Testing the performance of ice thickness models to estimate the formation of
potential future glacial lakes in Austria, Earth Surf. Proc.
Land., 47, 723–741, https://doi.org/10.1002/esp.5266, 2021.
Papathoma-Köhle, M., Schlögl, M., Dosser, L., Roesch, F., Borga, M.,
Erlicher, M., Keiler, M., and Fuchs, S.: Physical vulnerability to dynamic
flooding: Vulnerability curves and vulnerability indices, J.
Hydrol., 607, 127501, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2022.127501, 2022.
Petrov, M. A., Sabitov, T. Y., Tomashevskaya, I. G., Glazirin, G. E.,
Chernomorets, S. S., Savernyuk, E. A., Tutubalina, O. V., Petrakov, D. A.,
Sokolov, L. S., Dokukin, M. D., Mountrakis, G., Ruiz-Villanueva, V. and
Stoffel, M.: Glacial lake inventory and lake outburst potential in
Uzbekistan, Sci. Total Environ., 592, 228–242,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.03.068, 2017.
Pudasaini, S. P.: A general two-phase debris flow model, J.
Geophys. Res., 117, F03010, https://doi.org/10.1029/2011JF002186, 2012.
Pudasaini, S. P.: A full description of generalized drag in mixture mass
flows, Engin. Geol., 265, 105429, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enggeo.2019.105429,
2020.
Pudasaini, S. P. and Fischer, J. T.: A mechanical erosion model for two-phase
mass flows, Int. J. Multiphase Flow., 132, 103416,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijmultiphaseflow.2020.103416, 2020a.
Pudasaini, S. P. and Fischer, J. T.: A mechanical model for phase separation
in debris flow, Int. J. Multiphase Flow., 129, 103292,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijmultiphaseflow.2020.103292, 2020b.
Pudasaini, S. P. and Krautblatter, M.: The Mechanics of Landslide Mobility
with Erosion, [physics.geo-ph], Perprint, arXiv:2103.14842, https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2103.14842, 2021.
Pudasaini, S. P. and Mergili, M.: A Multi-Phase Mass Flow Model, JGR Earth Surface, 124, 2920–2942, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019JF005204, 2019.
Richardson, S. D. and Reynolds, J. M.: An overview of glacial hazards in the
Himalayas, Quaternary International, 65/66, 31–47,
https://doi.org/10.1016/S1040-6182(99)00035-X, 2000.
Rinzin, S., Zhang, G., and Wangchuk, S.: Glacial Lake Area Change and Potential
Outburst Flood Hazard Assessment in the Bhutan Himalaya, Front. Earth Sci., 9, 775195, https://doi.org/10.3389/feart.2021.775195, 2021.
Roe, G. H., Christian, J. E., and Marzeion, B.: On the attribution of industrial-era glacier mass loss to anthropogenic climate change, The Cryosphere, 15, 1889–1905, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1889-2021, 2021.
Sandstrom, U. and van den Besselaar, P.: Quantity and/or quality? The
importance of publishing many papers, PLoS ONE, 11, e0166149,
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0166149, 2016.
Sattar, A., Goswami, A., and Kulkarni, A.: Application of 1D and 2D
hydrodynamic modeling to study glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF) and its
impact on a hydropower station in Central Himalaya, Nat. Hazard., 97,
535–553, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-019-03657-6, 2019a.
Sattar, A., Goswami, A., and Kulkarni, A.: Hydrodynamic moraine-breach
modeling and outburst flood routing – A hazard assessment of the South
Lhonak lake, Sikkim. Sci. Total Environ., 668, 362–378,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.02.388, 2019b.
Sattar, A., Goswami, A., Kulkarni, A.V., and Emmer, A.: Lake Evolution,
Hydrodynamic Outburst Flood Modeling and Sensitivity Analysis in the Central
Himalaya: A Case Study, Water, 12, 237, https://doi.org/10.3390/w12010237, 2020.
Sattar, A., Haritashya, U. K., Kargel, J. S., Leonard, G. J., Shugar, D. H., and
Chase, D. V.: Modeling lake outburst and downstream hazard assessment of the
Lower Barun Glacial Lake, Nepal Himalaya, J. Hydrology, 598, 126208,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2021.126208, 2021.
Schaub, Y., Huggel, C., and Cochachin, A.: Ice-avalanche scenario elaboration
and uncertainty propagation in numerical simulation of
rock-/ice-avalanche-induced impact waves at Mount Hualcán and Lake 513,
Peru, Landslides 13, 1445–1459, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10346-015-0658-2, 2016.
Schmidt, S., Nusser, M., Baghel, R., and Dame, J.: Cryosphere hazards in
Ladakh: the 2014 Gya glacial lake outburst flood and its implications for
risk assessment, Nat. Hazard., 104, 2071–2095,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-020-04262-8, 2020.
Schneider, D., Huggel, C., Cochachin, A., Guillén, S., and García, J.: Mapping hazards from glacier lake outburst floods based on modelling of process cascades at Lake 513, Carhuaz, Peru, Adv. Geosci., 35, 145–155, https://doi.org/10.5194/adgeo-35-145-2014, 2014.
Schwanghart, W., Worni, R., Huggel, C., Stoffel, M., and Korup, O.:
Uncertainty in the Himalayan energy–water nexus: Estimating regional
exposure to glacial lake outburst floods, Environ. Res. Lett.,
11, 074005, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/11/7/074005, 2016.
Scopus: Scopus – abstract and citation database, Elsevier, Scopus [data set], https://www.scopus.com/home.uri, last access: 1 July 2022.
Sherpa, S. F., Shrestha, M., Eakin, H., and Boone, C. G.: Cryospheric hazards
and risk perceptions in the Sagarmatha (Mt. Everest) National Park and
Buffer Zone, Nepal, Nat. Hazard., 96, 607–626, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-018-3560-0, 2019.
Sherry, J., Curtis, A., Mendham, E., and Toman, E.: Cultural landscapes at
risk: Exploring the meaning of place in a sacred valley of Nepal, Global
Environmental Change, 52, 190–200, 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2018.07.007, 2018.
Shugar, D. H., Burr, A., Haritashya, U. K., Kargel, J. S., Watson, C. S.,
Kennedy, M. C., Bevington, A. R., Betts, R. A., Harrison, S., and Strattman, K.:
Rapid worldwide growth of glacial lakes since 1990, Nat. Clim. Change,
10, 939–945, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-020-0855-4, 2020.
Shugar, D. H., Jacquemart, M., Shean, D., Bhushan, S., Upadhyay, K., Sattar,
A., Schwanghart, W., McBride, S., Van Wyk de Vries, M., Mergili, M., Emmer,
A., Deschamps-Berger, C., McDonnell, M., Bhambri, R., Allen, S., Berthier,
E., Carrivick, J. L., Clague, J.J., Dokukin, M., Dunning, S. A., Frey, H.,
Gascoin, S., Haritashya, U. K., Huggel, C., Kääb, A., Kargel, J. S.,
Kavanaugh, J. L., Lacroix, P., Petley, D., Rupper, S., Azam, M. F., Cook,
S. J., Dimri, A. P., Eriksson, M., Farinotti, D., Fiddes, J., Gnyawali, K. R.,
Harrison, S., Jha, M., Koppes, M., Kumar, A., Leinss, S., Majeed, U., Mal,
S., Muhuri, A., Noetzli, J., Paul, F., Rashid, I., Sain, K., Steiner, J.,
Ugalde, F., Watson, C. S., and Westoby, M. J.: A massive rock and ice avalanche
caused the 2021 disaster at Chamoli, Indian Himalaya, Science, 373,
300–306, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.abh4455, 2021.
Stefaniak, A. M., Robson, B. A., Cook, S. J., Clutterbuck, B., Midgley, N. G., and Labadz, J. C.: Mass balance and surface evolution of the debris-covered Miage Glacier, 1990–2018, Geomorphology, 373, 107474,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geomorph.2020.107474, 2021.
Steffen, T., Huss, M., Estermann, R., Hodel, E., and Farinotti, D.: Volume, evolution, and sedimentation of future glacier lakes in Switzerland over the 21st century, Earth Surf. Dynam., 10, 723–741, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-10-723-2022, 2022.
Stuart-Smith, R. F., Roe, G. H., and Allen, M. R.: Increased outburst flood
hazard from Lake Palcacocha due to human-induced glacier retreat, Nat. Clim. Change, 14, 85–90, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-021-00686-4, 2021.
Taylor, L. S., Quincey, D. J., Smith, M. W., Baumhoer, C. A., McMillian, M., and Mansell, D. T.: Remote sensing of the mountain cryosphere: Current capabilities and future opportunities for research, Progress in Physical Geography-Earth and Environment, 45, 931–964, https://doi.org/10.1177/03091333211023690, 2021.
Thelwall, M. and Sud, P.: National, disciplinary and temporal variations in the
extent to which articles with more authors have more impact: Evidence from a
geometric field normalised citation indicator, J. Informetrics,
10, 48–61, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.joi.2015.11.007, 2016.
Thompson, I., Shrestha, M., Chhetri, N., and Agusdinata, D. B.: An institutional
analysis of glacial floods and disaster risk management in the Nepal
Himalaya, Int. J. Disast. Risk Reduct., 47, 101567,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2020.101567, 2020.
Tomczyk, A. M., Ewertowski, M. W., and Carrivick, J. L.: Geomorphological impacts
of a glacier lake outburst flood in the high arctic Zackenberg River, NE
Greenland, J. Hydrology, 591, 125300,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2020.125300, 2021.
Troilo, F.: The Grand Croux Lake Outburst flood: monitoring and protection
measure from the 2016 event to future scenarios, The GLOF conference and
workshop, 7–9 July 2021, online, 2021.
Vandekerkhove, E., Bertrand, S., Torrejon, F., Kylander, M. E., Reid, B., and
Saunders, K. M.: Signature of modern glacial lake outburst floods in fjord
sediments (Baker River, southern Chile), Sedimentology, 68, 2798–2819, https://doi.org/10.1111/sed.12874, 2021.
Veh, G., Korup, O., Roessner, S., and Walz, A.: Detecting Himalayan glacial lake outburst floods from Landsat time series, Remote Sens. Environ., 207, 84–97, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rse.2017.12.025, 2018.
Veh, G., Korup, O., von Specht, S., Roessner, S., and Walz, A.: Unchanged
frequency of moraine-dammed glacial lake outburst floods in the Himalaya,
Nat. Clim. Change, 9, 379–383, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-019-0437-5, 2019.
Veh, G., Lützov, N., Kharlamova, V., Petrakov, D., Hugonnet, R., and
Korup, O.: Trends, breaks, and biases in the frequency of reported glacier
lake outburst floods, Earth's Future, 10, e2021EF002426,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2021EF002426, data available at: glofs.geoecology.uni-potsdam.de/, 2022.
Vilca, O., Mergili, M., Emmer, A., Frey, H., Huggel, C.: The 2020
glacial lake outburst flood process chain at Lake Salkantaycocha (Cordillera
Vilcabamba, Peru), Landslides, 18, 2211–2223,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s10346-021-01670-0, 2021.
Von Thun, J. L. and Gillette, D. R.: Guidance on breach parameters, Internal Memorandum, U.S. Dept. of the Interior, Bureau of Reclamation, Denver, p. 17, 1990.
Wang, W. C., Gao, Y., Anacona, P. I., Lei, Y. B., Xiang, Y., Zhang, G. Q., and
Li, S. H.: Integrated hazard assessment of Cirenmaco glacial lake in
Zhangzangbo valley, Central Himalayas, Geomorphology, 306, 292–305,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geomorph.2015.08.013, 2018.
Whyte, K.: Too Late for Indigenous Climate Justice: Ecological and
Relational Tipping Points, WIREs Clim. Change, 11, e603,
https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.603, 2020.
Wilson, R., Glasser, N. F., Reynolds, J. M., Harrison, S., Anacona, P. I.,
Schaefer, M., and Shannon, S.: Glacial lakes of the Central and Patagonian
Andes, Global Planet. Change, 162, 275–291,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2018.01.004, 2018.
Wood, J. L., Harrison, S., Wilson, R., Emmer, A., Yarleque, C., Glasser,
N. F., Torres, J. C., Caballero, A., Araujo, J., Bennett, G. L., Diaz, A.,
Garay, D., Jara, H., Poma, C., Reynolds, J. M., Riveros, C. A., Romero, E.,
Shannon, S., Tinoco, T., Turpo, E., and Villafane, H.: Contemporary
glacial lakes in the Peruvian Andes, Global Planet. Change, 204,
103574, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2021.103574, 2021.
Worni, R., Huggel, C., Clague, J. J., Schaub, Y., and Stoffel, M.: Coupling
glacial lake impact, dam breach, and flood processes: A modeling
perspective, Geomorphology, 224, 161–176, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geomorph.2014.06.031,
2014.
WOS: Web of Science – citation database, Clarivate Analytics, WOB [data set], https://www.webofscience.com/wos/woscc/basic-search, last access: 1 July 2022.
Wrathall, D. J., Bury, J., Carey, M., Mark, B. G., McKenzie, J., Young, K.,
Baraer, M., French, A., and Rampini, C.: Migration Amidst Climate Rigidity
Traps: Resource Politics and Social-Ecological Possibilism in Honduras and
Peru, Ann. Assoc. Am. Geogr., 104, 292–304,
https://doi.org/10.1080/00045608.2013.873326, 2014.
Yin, B. L., Zeng, J., Zhang, Y. L., Huai, B. J., and Wang, Y. T.: Recent Kyagar
glacier lake outburst flood frequency in Chinese Karakoram unprecedented
over the last two centuries, Nat. Hazard., 95, 877–881,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-018-3505-7, 2019.
Zhang, G., Bolch, T., Allen, S., Linsbauer, A., Chen, W., and Wang, W.: Glacial
lake evolution and glacier-lake interactions in the Poiqu River basin,
central Himalaya, 1964–2017, J. Glaciol., 65, 347–365,
https://doi.org/10.1017/jog.2019.13.
Zheng, G., Bao, A., Allen, S., Ballesteros-Canovas, J. A., Yuan, Y., Jiapaer,
G., and Stoffel, M.: Numerous unreported glacial lake outburst floods in the
Third Pole revealed by high-resolution satellite data and geomorphological
evidence, Sci. Bull., 66, 1270–1273,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scib.2021.01.014, 2021a.
Zheng, G., Mergili, M., Emmer, A., Allen, S., Bao, A., Guo, H., and Stoffel, M.: The 2020 glacial lake outburst flood at Jinwuco, Tibet: causes, impacts, and implications for hazard and risk assessment, The Cryosphere, 15, 3159–3180, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3159-2021, 2021b.
Zheng, G., Allen, S. K., Bao, A., Ballesteros-Cánovas, J. A., Huss, M.,
Zhang, G., Li, J., Yuan, Y., Jiang, L., Yu, T., Chen, W. and Stoffel, M.:
Increasing risk of glacial lake outburst floods from future Third Pole
deglaciation, Nat. Clim. Change, 11, 411–417, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-021-01028-3, 2021c.
Executive editor
I also agree with tha handling editor.
Short summary
Glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) have attracted increased research attention recently. In this work, we review GLOF research papers published between 2017 and 2021 and complement the analysis with research community insights gained from the 2021 GLOF conference we organized. The transdisciplinary character of the conference together with broad geographical coverage allowed us to identify progress, trends and challenges in GLOF research and outline future research needs and directions.
Glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) have attracted increased research attention recently. In...
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint