Articles | Volume 22, issue 2
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-303-2022
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-303-2022
Research article
 | 
04 Feb 2022
Research article |  | 04 Feb 2022

ProbFire: a probabilistic fire early warning system for Indonesia

Tadas Nikonovas, Allan Spessa, Stefan H. Doerr, Gareth D. Clay, and Symon Mezbahuddin

Related authors

Particulate emissions from large North American wildfires estimated using a new top-down method
Tadas Nikonovas, Peter R. J. North, and Stefan H. Doerr
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 6423–6438, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-6423-2017,https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-6423-2017, 2017
Short summary
Smoke aerosol properties and ageing effects for northern temperate and boreal regions derived from AERONET source and age attribution
T. Nikonovas, P. R. J. North, and S. H. Doerr
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 7929–7943, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-7929-2015,https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-7929-2015, 2015
Short summary

Related subject area

Databases, GIS, Remote Sensing, Early Warning Systems and Monitoring Technologies
Automated rapid estimation of flood depth using a digital elevation model and Earth Observation Satellite (EOS-04)-derived flood inundation
Lakshmi Amani Chimata, Suresh Babu Anuvala Setty Venkata, Shashi Vardhan Reddy Patlolla, Durga Rao Korada Hari Venkata, Sreenivas Kandrika, and Prakash Chauhan
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 2455–2472, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-2455-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-2455-2025, 2025
Short summary
An automated approach for developing geohazard inventories using news: integrating natural language processing (NLP), machine learning, and mapping
Aydoğan Avcıoğlu, Ogün Demir, and Tolga Görüm
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 2421–2435, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-2421-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-2421-2025, 2025
Short summary
Prediction of the volume of shallow landslides due to rainfall using data-driven models
Jérémie Tuganishuri, Chan-Young Yune, Gihong Kim, Seung Woo Lee, Manik Das Adhikari, and Sang-Guk Yum
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1481–1499, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1481-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1481-2025, 2025
Short summary
Monitoring snow depth variations in an avalanche release area using low-cost lidar and optical sensors
Pia Ruttner, Annelies Voordendag, Thierry Hartmann, Julia Glaus, Andreas Wieser, and Yves Bühler
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1315–1330, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1315-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1315-2025, 2025
Short summary
Satellite-based data for agricultural index insurance: a systematic quantitative literature review
Thuy T. Nguyen, Shahbaz Mushtaq, Jarrod Kath, Thong Nguyen-Huy, and Louis Reymondin
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 913–927, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-913-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-913-2025, 2025
Short summary

Cited articles

Aldrian, E. and Dwi Susanto, R.: Identification of three dominant rainfall regions within Indonesia and their relationship to sea surface temperature, Int. J. Climatol., 23, 1435–1452, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.950, 2003. 
Alduchov, O. A. and Eskridge, R. E.: Improved Magnus Form Approximation of Saturation Vapor Pressure, J. Appl. Meteorol. Climatol., 35, 601–609, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0450(1996)035<0601:IMFAOS>2.0.CO;2, 1996. 
Arino, O., Casadio, S., and Serpe, D.: Global night-time fire season timing and fire count trends using the ATSR instrument series, Remote Sens. Environ., 116, 226–238, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rse.2011.05.025, 2012. 
Barnston, A. G.: Linear Statistical Short-Term Climate Predictive Skill in the Northern Hemisphere, J. Climate, 7, 1513–1564, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(1994)007<1513:LSSTCP>2.0.CO;2, 1994. 
Bauer, P., Thorpe, A., and Brunet, G.: The quiet revolution of numerical weather prediction, Nature, 525, 47–55, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature14956, 2015. 
Download
Short summary
Extreme fire episodes in Indonesia emit large amounts of greenhouse gasses and have negative effects on human health in the region. In this study we show that such burning events can be predicted several months in advance in large parts of Indonesia using existing seasonal climate forecasts and forest cover change datasets. A reliable early fire warning system would enable local agencies to prepare and mitigate the worst of the effects.
Share
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint