Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
NHESS
Articles | Volume 22, issue 2
Articles | Volume 22, issue 2
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-303-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-303-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 22, issue 2
Research article
 | 
04 Feb 2022
Research article |  | 04 Feb 2022

ProbFire: a probabilistic fire early warning system for Indonesia

Tadas Nikonovas, Allan Spessa, Stefan H. Doerr, Gareth D. Clay, and Symon Mezbahuddin

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Short summary
Extreme fire episodes in Indonesia emit large amounts of greenhouse gasses and have negative effects on human health in the region. In this study we show that such burning events can be predicted several months in advance in large parts of Indonesia using existing seasonal climate forecasts and forest cover change datasets. A reliable early fire warning system would enable local agencies to prepare and mitigate the worst of the effects.
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