Articles | Volume 21, issue 12
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3693–3712, 2021
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3693–3712, 2021
Research article
08 Dec 2021
Research article | 08 Dec 2021

Towards using state-of-the-art climate models to help constrain estimates of unprecedented UK storm surges

Tom Howard and Simon David Paul Williams

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Cited articles

Arns, A., Wahl, T., Haigh, I., Jensen, J., and Pattiaratchi, C.: Estimating extreme water level probabilities: A comparison of the direct methods and recommendations for best practise, Coast. Eng., 81, 51–66, 2013. a
Batstone, C., Lawless, M., Tawn, J., Horsburgh, K., Blackman, D., McMillan, A., Worth, D., Laeger, S., and Hunt, T.: A UK best-practice approach for extreme sea-level analysis along complex topographic coastlines, Ocean Eng., 71, 28–39, 2013. a, b, c
Bernier, N. and Thompson, K.: Predicting the frequency of storm surges and extreme sea levels in the northwest Atlantic, J. Geophys. Res.-Oceans, 111, C10009,, 2006. a
British Ocean Data Centre: UK Tide gauge network, available at:, last access: December 2021. a
Brown, J. M., Souza, A. J., and Wolf, J.: Surge modelling in the eastern Irish Sea: present and future storm impact, Ocean Dynam., 60, 227–236, 2010. a
Short summary
We use a computer model to simulate storm surges around the coast of the United Kingdom. The model is based on the physics of the atmosphere and oceans. We hope that this will help us to better quantify extreme events: even bigger than those that have been seen in the tide gauge record. Our model simulates events which are comparable to the catastrophic 1953 storm surge. Model simulations have the potential to reduce the uncertainty in inferences of the most extreme surge return levels.
Final-revised paper