Articles | Volume 21, issue 12
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3693-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3693-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
08 Dec 2021
Research article |
| 08 Dec 2021
| 08 Dec 2021
Towards using state-of-the-art climate models to help constrain estimates of unprecedented UK storm surges
Met Office, FitzRoy Road, Exeter EX1 3PB, UK
Simon David Paul Williams
National Oceanography Centre, Joseph Proudman Building, 6 Brownlow Street, Liverpool L3 5DA, UK
Related authors
Tom Howard
Ocean Sci., 18, 905–913, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-18-905-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-18-905-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
I show that two different statistical approaches to dealing with rare sea-level extremes caused by storm surges are not incompatible, despite their apparent differences.
I suggest a context in which each approach is appropriate.
I undertook this research because the two approaches might seem to be incompatible, a situation which I hope that this note helps to clarify.
I applied various statistical tests which have appeared in recent literature to sea-level extremes from UK coastal sites.
Heather Cannaby, Matthew D. Palmer, Tom Howard, Lucy Bricheno, Daley Calvert, Justin Krijnen, Richard Wood, Jonathan Tinker, Chris Bunney, James Harle, Andrew Saulter, Clare O'Neill, Clare Bellingham, and Jason Lowe
Ocean Sci., 12, 613–632, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-12-613-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-12-613-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
The Singapore government commissioned a modelling study of regional projections of changes in (i) long-term mean sea level and (ii) the frequency of extreme storm surge and wave events. We find that changes to long-term mean sea level constitute the dominant signal of change to the projected inundation risk for Singapore during the 21st century, these being 0.52 m(0.74 m) under the RCP 4.5(8.5) scenario.
T. Howard, A. K. Pardaens, J. L. Bamber, J. Ridley, G. Spada, R. T. W. L. Hurkmans, J. A. Lowe, and D. Vaughan
Ocean Sci., 10, 473–483, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-10-473-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-10-473-2014, 2014
T. Howard, J. Ridley, A. K. Pardaens, R. T. W. L. Hurkmans, A. J. Payne, R. H. Giesen, J. A. Lowe, J. L. Bamber, T. L. Edwards, and J. Oerlemans
Ocean Sci., 10, 485–500, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-10-485-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-10-485-2014, 2014
Alexander T. Archibald, Bablu Sinha, Maria Russo, Emily Matthews, Freya Squires, N. Luke Abraham, Stephane Bauguitte, Thomas Bannan, Thomas Bell, David Berry, Lucy Carpenter, Hugh Coe, Andrew Coward, Peter Edwards, Daniel Feltham, Dwayne Heard, Jim Hopkins, James Keeble, Elizabeth C. Kent, Brian King, Isobel R. Lawrence, James Lee, Claire R. Macintosh, Alex Megann, Ben I. Moat, Katie Read, Chris Reed, Malcolm Roberts, Reinhard Schiemann, David Schroeder, Tim Smyth, Loren Temple, Navaneeth Thamban, Lisa Whalley, Simon Williams, Huihui Wu, and Ming-Xi Yang
Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2023-405, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2023-405, 2024
Preprint under review for ESSD
Short summary
Short summary
Here we present an overview of the data generated as part of the North Atlantic Climate System Integrated Studies (ACSIS) programme which are available through dedicated repositories at the Centre for Environmental Data Analysis (CEDA, www.ceda.ac.uk) and the British Oceanographic Data Centre (BODC, bodc.ac.uk). ACSIS data cover the full North Atlantic System comprising: the North Atlantic Ocean, the atmosphere above it including its composition, Arctic Sea Ice and the Greenland Ice Sheet.
Tom Howard
Ocean Sci., 18, 905–913, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-18-905-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-18-905-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
I show that two different statistical approaches to dealing with rare sea-level extremes caused by storm surges are not incompatible, despite their apparent differences.
I suggest a context in which each approach is appropriate.
I undertook this research because the two approaches might seem to be incompatible, a situation which I hope that this note helps to clarify.
I applied various statistical tests which have appeared in recent literature to sea-level extremes from UK coastal sites.
Heather Cannaby, Matthew D. Palmer, Tom Howard, Lucy Bricheno, Daley Calvert, Justin Krijnen, Richard Wood, Jonathan Tinker, Chris Bunney, James Harle, Andrew Saulter, Clare O'Neill, Clare Bellingham, and Jason Lowe
Ocean Sci., 12, 613–632, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-12-613-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-12-613-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
The Singapore government commissioned a modelling study of regional projections of changes in (i) long-term mean sea level and (ii) the frequency of extreme storm surge and wave events. We find that changes to long-term mean sea level constitute the dominant signal of change to the projected inundation risk for Singapore during the 21st century, these being 0.52 m(0.74 m) under the RCP 4.5(8.5) scenario.
Joanne Williams, C. W. Hughes, M. E. Tamisiea, and S. D. P. Williams
Ocean Sci., 10, 701–718, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-10-701-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-10-701-2014, 2014
T. Howard, A. K. Pardaens, J. L. Bamber, J. Ridley, G. Spada, R. T. W. L. Hurkmans, J. A. Lowe, and D. Vaughan
Ocean Sci., 10, 473–483, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-10-473-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-10-473-2014, 2014
T. Howard, J. Ridley, A. K. Pardaens, R. T. W. L. Hurkmans, A. J. Payne, R. H. Giesen, J. A. Lowe, J. L. Bamber, T. L. Edwards, and J. Oerlemans
Ocean Sci., 10, 485–500, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-10-485-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-10-485-2014, 2014
Related subject area
Sea, Ocean and Coastal Hazards
Investigation of historical severe storms and storm tides in the German Bight with century reanalysis data
Proposal for a new meteotsunami intensity index
Total water levels along the South Atlantic Bight during three along-shelf propagating tropical cyclones: relative contributions of storm surge and wave runup
Hurricane Irma: an unprecedented event over the last 3700 years? Geomorphological changes and sedimentological record in Codrington Lagoon, Barbuda
Bayesian extreme value analysis of extreme sea levels along the German Baltic coast using historical information
Storm characteristics influence nitrogen removal in an urban estuarine environment
A new European coastal flood database for low–medium intensity events
Boulder transport and wave height of a seventeenth-century South China Sea tsunami on Penghu Islands, Taiwan
A wave-resolving modeling study of rip current variability, rip hazard, and swimmer escape strategies on an embayed beach
Human displacements from Tropical Cyclone Idai attributable to climate change
Three decades of coastal subsidence in the slow-moving Nice Côte d'Azur Airport area (France) revealed by InSAR (interferometric synthetic-aperture radar): insights into the deformation mechanism
Thresholds for estuarine compound flooding using a combined hydrodynamic-statistical modelling approach
Modelling extreme water levels using intertidal topography and bathymetry derived from multispectral satellite images
Regional assessment of extreme sea levels and associated coastal flooding along the German Baltic Sea coast
Joint probability analysis of storm surges and waves caused by tropical cyclones for the estimation of protection standard: a case study on the eastern coast of the Leizhou Peninsula and the island of Hainan in China
Meteotsunami in the United Kingdom: the hidden hazard
Climate-induced storminess forces major increases in future storm surge hazard in the South China Sea region
Assessing Typhoon Soulik-induced morphodynamics over the Mokpo coastal region in South Korea based on a geospatial approach
Bayesian hierarchical modelling of sea-level extremes in the Finnish coastal region
Assessing the coastal hazard of Medicane Ianos through ensemble modelling
A predictive equation for wave setup using genetic programming
Contribution of solitons to enhanced rogue wave occurrence in shallow depths: a case study in the southern North Sea
Compound flood events: analysing the joint occurrence of extreme river discharge events and storm surges in northern and central Europe
Improvements to the detection and analysis of external surges in the North Sea
Optimal probabilistic placement of facilities using a surrogate model for 3D tsunami simulations
Enabling dynamic modelling of coastal flooding by defining storm tide hydrographs
The role of preconditioning for extreme storm surges in the western Baltic Sea
Freak wave events in 2005–2021: statistics and analysis of favourable wave and wind conditions
Probabilistic projections and past trends of sea level rise in Finland
The effect of deep ocean currents on ocean- bottom seismometers records
Giant mid-Holocene landslide-generated tsunamis recorded in lake sediments from Saqqaq, West Greenland
An interdisciplinary agent-based evacuation model: integrating the natural environment, built environment, and social system for community preparedness and resilience
Coastal extreme sea levels in the Caribbean Sea induced by tropical cyclones
Characteristics of consecutive tsunamis and resulting tsunami behaviors in southern Taiwan induced by the Hengchun earthquake doublet on 26 December 2006
Potential tsunami hazard of the southern Vanuatu subduction zone: tectonics, case study of the Matthew Island tsunami of 10 February 2021 and implication in regional hazard assessment
Detecting anomalous sea-level states in North Sea tide gauge data using an autoassociative neural network
Observations of extreme wave runup events on the US Pacific Northwest coast
The potential of global coastal flood risk reduction using various DRR measures
Warning water level determination and its spatial distribution in coastal areas of China
A global open-source database of flood-protection levees on river deltas (openDELvE)
Hazard assessment and hydrodynamic, morphodynamic, and hydrological response to Hurricane Gamma and Hurricane Delta on the northern Yucatán Peninsula
Estimating dune erosion at the regional scale using a meta-model based on neural networks
Simulation of tsunami induced by a submarine landslide in a glaciomarine margin: the case of Storfjorden LS-1 (southwestern Svalbard Islands)
Multi-hazard analysis of flood and tsunamis on the western Mediterranean coast of Turkey
Importance of non-stationary analysis for assessing extreme sea levels under sea level rise
Wind-wave characteristics and extremes along the Emilia-Romagna coast
Partitioning the contributions of dependent offshore forcing conditions in the probabilistic assessment of future coastal flooding
Identification and ranking of subaerial volcanic tsunami hazard sources in Southeast Asia
Modelling geographical and built-environment attributes as predictors of human vulnerability during tsunami evacuations: a multi-case-study and paths to improvement
Modelling the sequential earthquake–tsunami response of coastal road embankment infrastructure
Elke Magda Inge Meyer and Lidia Gaslikova
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 481–499, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-481-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-481-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Storm tides for eight extreme historical storms in the German Bight are modelled using sets of slightly varying atmospheric conditions from the century reanalyses. Comparisons with the water level observations from the gauges Norderney, Cuxhaven and Husum show that single members of the reanalyses are suitable for the reconstruction of extreme storms. Storms with more northerly tracks show less variability within a set and have more potential for accurate reconstruction of extreme water levels.
Clare Lewis, Tim Smyth, Jess Neumann, and Hannah Cloke
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 121–131, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-121-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-121-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Meteotsunami are the result of atmospheric disturbances and can impact coastlines causing injury, loss of life, and damage to assets. This paper introduces a novel intensity index to allow for the quantification of these events at the shoreline. This has the potential to assist in the field of natural hazard assessment. It was trialled in the UK but designed for global applicability and to become a widely accepted standard in coastal planning, meteotsunami forecasting, and early warning systems.
Chu-En Hsu, Katherine A. Serafin, Xiao Yu, Christie A. Hegermiller, John C. Warner, and Maitane Olabarrieta
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3895–3912, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3895-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3895-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Total water levels (TWLs) induced by tropical cyclones (TCs) are among the leading hazards faced by coastal communities. Using numerical models, we examined how TWL components (surge and wave runup) along the South Atlantic Bight varied during hurricanes Matthew (2016), Dorian (2019), and Isaias (2020). Peak surge and peak wave runup were dominated by wind speeds and relative positions to TCs. The exceedance time of TWLs was controlled by normalized distances to TC and TC translation speeds.
Maude Biguenet, Eric Chaumillon, Pierre Sabatier, Antoine Bastien, Emeline Geba, Fabien Arnaud, Thibault Coulombier, and Nathalie Feuillet
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3761–3788, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3761-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3761-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This work documents the impact of Hurricane Irma (2017) on the Codrington barrier and lagoon on Barbuda Island. Irma caused two wide breaches in the sandy barrier, which remained unopened for 250 years. The thick and extensive sand sheet at the top of the lagoon fill was attributed to Irma. This unique deposit in a 3700-year record confirms Irma's exceptional character. This case study illustrates the consequences of high-intensity hurricanes in low-lying islands in a global warming context.
Leigh Richard MacPherson, Arne Arns, Svenja Fischer, Fernando Javier Méndez, and Jürgen Jensen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3685–3701, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3685-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3685-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Efficient adaptation planning for coastal flooding caused by extreme sea levels requires accurate assessments of the underlying hazard. Tide-gauge data alone are often insufficient for providing the desired accuracy but may be supplemented with historical information. We estimate extreme sea levels along the German Baltic coast and show that relying solely on tide-gauge data leads to underestimations. Incorporating historical information leads to improved estimates with reduced uncertainties.
Anne Margaret H. Smiley, Suzanne P. Thompson, Nathan S. Hall, and Michael F. Piehler
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3635–3649, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3635-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3635-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Floodwaters can deliver reactive nitrogen to sensitive aquatic systems and diminish water quality. We assessed the nitrogen removal capabilities of flooded habitats and urban landscapes. Differences in processing rates across land cover treatments and between nutrient treatments suggest that abundance and spatial distributions of habitats, as well as storm characteristics, influence landscape-scale nitrogen removal. Results have important implications for coastal development and climate change.
Marine Le Gal, Tomás Fernández-Montblanc, Enrico Duo, Juan Montes Perez, Paulo Cabrita, Paola Souto Ceccon, Véra Gastal, Paolo Ciavola, and Clara Armaroli
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3585–3602, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3585-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3585-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Assessing coastal hazards is crucial to mitigate flooding disasters. In this regard, coastal flood databases are valuable tools. This paper describes a new coastal flood map catalogue covering the entire European coastline, as well as the methodology to build it and its accuracy. The catalogue focuses on frequent extreme events and relies on synthetic scenarios estimated from local storm conditions. Flood-prone areas and regions sensitive to storm duration and water level peak were identified.
Neng-Ti Yu, Cheng-Hao Lu, I-Chin Yen, Jia-Hong Chen, Jiun-Yee Yen, and Shyh-Jeng Chyi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3525–3542, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3525-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3525-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
A paleotsunami deposit of cliff-top basalt debris was identified on the Penghu Islands in the southern Taiwan Strait and related to the 1661 earthquake in southwest Taiwan. A minimum wave height of 3.2 m is estimated to have rotated the biggest boulder for over 30 m landwards onto the cliff top at 2.5 m a.s.l. The event must have been huge compared to the 1994 M 6.4 earthquake with the ensuing 0.4 m high tsunami in the same area, validating the intimidating tsunami risks in the South China Sea.
Ye Yuan, Huaiwei Yang, Fujiang Yu, Yi Gao, Benxia Li, and Chuang Xing
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3487–3507, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3487-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3487-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Rip currents are narrow jets of offshore-directed flow that originated in the surf zone, which can take swimmers of all ability levels into deeper water unawares. In this study, a 1 m fine-resolution wave-resolving model was configured to study rip current variability and the optimal swimmer escape strategies. Multiple factors contribute to the survival of swimmers. However, for weak-to-moderate rip and longshore currents, swimming onshore consistently seems to be the most successful strategy.
Benedikt Mester, Thomas Vogt, Seth Bryant, Christian Otto, Katja Frieler, and Jacob Schewe
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3467–3485, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3467-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3467-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
In 2019, Cyclone Idai displaced more than 478 000 people in Mozambique. In our study, we use coastal flood modeling and satellite imagery to construct a counterfactual cyclone event without the effects of climate change. We show that 12 600–14 900 displacements can be attributed to sea level rise and the intensification of storm wind speeds due to global warming. Our impact attribution study is the first one on human displacement and one of very few for a low-income country.
Olivier Cavalié, Frédéric Cappa, and Béatrice Pinel-Puysségur
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3235–3246, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3235-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3235-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Coastal areas are fragile ecosystems that face multiple hazards. In this study, we measured the downward motion of the Nice Côte d'Azur Airport (France) that was built on reclaimed area and found that it has subsided from 16 mm yr-1 in the 1990s to 8 mm yr-1 today. A continuous remote monitoring of the platform will provide key data for a detailed investigation of future subsidence maps, and this contribution will help to evaluate the potential failure of part of the airport platform.
Charlotte Lyddon, Nguyen Chien, Grigorios Vasilopoulos, Michael Ridgill, Sogol Moradian, Agnieska Olbert, Thomas Coulthard, Andrew Barkwith, and Peter Robins
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2116, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2116, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Recent storms in the UK, like Storm Ciara in 2020, show how vulnerable estuaries are to the combined effect of sea level and river discharge. We show the combinations of sea levels and river discharges that cause flooding in the Conwy Estuary, N-Wales. The results showed flooding was amplified under moderate conditions in the mid-estuary, and elsewhere sea state or river flow dominated the hazard. Combined sea and river thresholds can improve prediction and early-warning of compound flooding.
Wagner L. L. Costa, Karin R. Bryan, and Giovanni Coco
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3125–3146, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3125-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3125-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
For predicting flooding events at the coast, topo-bathymetric data are essential. However, elevation data can be unavailable. To tackle this issue, recent efforts have centred on the use of satellite-derived topography (SDT) and bathymetry (SDB). This work is aimed at evaluating their accuracy and use for flooding prediction in enclosed estuaries. Results show that the use of SDT and SDB in numerical modelling can produce similar predictions when compared to the surveyed elevation data.
Joshua Kiesel, Marvin Lorenz, Marcel König, Ulf Gräwe, and Athanasios T. Vafeidis
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2961–2985, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2961-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2961-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Among the Baltic Sea littoral states, Germany is anticipated to experience considerable damage as a result of increased coastal flooding due to sea-level rise (SLR). Here we apply a new modelling framework to simulate how flooding along the German Baltic Sea coast may change until 2100 if dikes are not upgraded. We find that the study region is highly exposed to flooding, and we emphasise the importance of current plans to update coastal protection in the future.
Zhang Haixia, Cheng Meng, and Fang Weihua
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2697–2717, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2697-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2697-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Simultaneous storm surge and waves can cause great damage due to cascading effects. Quantitative joint probability analysis is critical to determine their optimal protection design values. The joint probability of the surge and wave for the eastern coasts of Leizhou Peninsula and Hainan are estimated with a Gumbel copula based on 62 years of numerically simulated data, and the optimal design values under various joint return periods are derived using the non-linear programming method.
Clare Lewis, Tim Smyth, David Williams, Jess Neumann, and Hannah Cloke
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2531–2546, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2531-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2531-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Meteotsunami are globally occurring water waves initiated by atmospheric disturbances. Previous research has suggested that in the UK, meteotsunami are a rare phenomenon and tend to occur in the summer months. This article presents a revised and updated catalogue of 98 meteotsunami that occurred between 1750 and 2022. Results also demonstrate a larger percentage of winter events and a geographical pattern highlighting the
hotspotregions that experience these events.
Melissa Wood, Ivan D. Haigh, Quan Quan Le, Hung Nghia Nguyen, Hoang Ba Tran, Stephen E. Darby, Robert Marsh, Nikolaos Skliris, Joël J.-M. Hirschi, Robert J. Nicholls, and Nadia Bloemendaal
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2475–2504, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2475-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2475-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We used a novel database of simulated tropical cyclone tracks to explore whether typhoon-induced storm surges present a future flood risk to low-lying coastal communities around the South China Sea. We found that future climate change is likely to change tropical cyclone behaviour to an extent that this increases the severity and frequency of storm surges to Vietnam, southern China, and Thailand. Consequently, coastal flood defences need to be reviewed for resilience against this future hazard.
Sang-Guk Yum, Moon-Soo Song, and Manik Das Adhikari
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2449–2474, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2449-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2449-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This study performed analysis on typhoon-induced coastal morphodynamics for the Mokpo coast. Wetland vegetation was severely impacted by Typhoon Soulik, with 87.35 % of shoreline transects experiencing seaward migration. This result highlights the fact that sediment resuspension controls the land alteration process over the typhoon period. The land accretion process dominated during the pre- to post-typhoon periods.
Olle Räty, Marko Laine, Ulpu Leijala, Jani Särkkä, and Milla M. Johansson
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2403–2418, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2403-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2403-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We studied annual maximum sea levels in the Finnish coastal region. Our aim was to better quantify the uncertainty in them compared to previous studies. Using four statistical models, we found out that hierarchical models, which shared information on sea-level extremes across Finnish tide gauges, had lower uncertainty in their results in comparison with tide-gauge-specific fits. These models also suggested that the shape of the distribution for extreme sea levels is similar on the Finnish coast.
Christian Ferrarin, Florian Pantillon, Silvio Davolio, Marco Bajo, Mario Marcello Miglietta, Elenio Avolio, Diego S. Carrió, Ioannis Pytharoulis, Claudio Sanchez, Platon Patlakas, Juan Jesús González-Alemán, and Emmanouil Flaounas
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2273–2287, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2273-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2273-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The combined use of meteorological and ocean models enabled the analysis of extreme sea conditions driven by Medicane Ianos, which hit the western coast of Greece on 18 September 2020, flooding and damaging the coast. The large spread associated with the ensemble highlighted the high model uncertainty in simulating such an extreme weather event. The different simulations have been used for outlining hazard scenarios that represent a fundamental component of the coastal risk assessment.
Charline Dalinghaus, Giovanni Coco, and Pablo Higuera
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2157–2169, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2157-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2157-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Wave setup is a critical component of coastal flooding. Consequently, understanding and being able to predict wave setup is vital to protect coastal resources and the population living near the shore. Here, we applied machine learning to improve the accuracy of present predictors of wave setup. The results show that the new predictors outperform existing formulas demonstrating the capability of machine learning models to provide a physically sound description of wave setup.
Ina Teutsch, Markus Brühl, Ralf Weisse, and Sander Wahls
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2053–2073, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2053-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2053-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Rogue waves exceed twice the significant wave height. They occur more often than expected in the shallow waters off Norderney. When applying a nonlinear Fourier transform for the Korteweg–de Vries equation to wave data from Norderney, we found differences in the soliton spectra of time series with and without rogue waves. A strongly outstanding soliton in the spectrum indicated an enhanced probability for rogue waves. We could attribute spectral solitons to the measured rogue waves.
Philipp Heinrich, Stefan Hagemann, Ralf Weisse, Corinna Schrum, Ute Daewel, and Lidia Gaslikova
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1967–1985, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1967-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1967-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
High seawater levels co-occurring with high river discharges have the potential to cause destructive flooding. For the past decades, the number of such compound events was larger than expected by pure chance for most of the west-facing coasts in Europe. Additionally rivers with smaller catchments showed higher numbers. In most cases, such events were associated with a large-scale weather pattern characterized by westerly winds and strong rainfall.
Alexander Böhme, Birgit Gerkensmeier, Benedikt Bratz, Clemens Krautwald, Olaf Müller, Nils Goseberg, and Gabriele Gönnert
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1947–1966, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1947-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1947-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
External surges in the North Sea are caused by low-pressure cells travelling over the northeast Atlantic. They influence extreme water levels on the German coast and have to be considered in the design process of coastal defence structures. This study collects data about external surges from 1995–2020 and analyses their causes, behaviours and potential trends. External surges often occur less than 72 h apart, enabling a single storm surge to be influenced by more than one external surge.
Kenta Tozato, Shuji Moriguchi, Shinsuke Takase, Yu Otake, Michael R. Motley, Anawat Suppasri, and Kenjiro Terada
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1891–1909, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1891-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1891-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This study presents a framework that efficiently investigates the optimal placement of facilities probabilistically based on advanced numerical simulation. Surrogate models for the numerical simulation are constructed using a mode decomposition technique. Monte Carlo simulations using the surrogate models are performed to evaluate failure probabilities. Using the results of the Monte Carlo simulations and the genetic algorithm, optimal placements can be investigated probabilistically.
Job C. M. Dullaart, Sanne Muis, Hans de Moel, Philip J. Ward, Dirk Eilander, and Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1847–1862, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1847-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1847-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Coastal flooding is driven by storm surges and high tides and can be devastating. To gain an understanding of the threat posed by coastal flooding and to identify areas that are especially at risk, now and in the future, it is crucial to accurately model coastal inundation and assess the coastal flood hazard. Here, we present a global dataset with hydrographs that represent the typical evolution of an extreme sea level. These can be used to model coastal inundation more accurately.
Elin Andrée, Jian Su, Morten Andreas Dahl Larsen, Martin Drews, Martin Stendel, and Kristine Skovgaard Madsen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1817–1834, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1817-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1817-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
When natural processes interact, they may compound each other. The combined effect can amplify extreme sea levels, such as when a storm occurs at a time when the water level is already higher than usual. We used numerical modelling of a record-breaking storm surge in 1872 to show that other prior sea-level conditions could have further worsened the outcome. Our research highlights the need to consider the physical context of extreme sea levels in measures to reduce coastal flood risk.
Ekaterina Didenkulova, Ira Didenkulova, and Igor Medvedev
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1653–1663, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1653-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1653-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The paper is dedicated to freak wave accidents which happened in the world ocean in 2005–2021 and that were described in mass media sources. The database accounts for 429 events, all of which resulted in ship or coastal and offshore structure damage and/or human losses. In agreement with each freak wave event, we put background wave and wind conditions extracted from the climate reanalysis ERA5. We analyse their statistics and discuss the favourable conditions for freak wave occurrence.
Havu Pellikka, Milla M. Johansson, Maaria Nordman, and Kimmo Ruosteenoja
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1613–1630, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1613-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1613-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We explore the rate of past and future sea level rise at the Finnish coast, northeastern Baltic Sea, in 1901–2100. For this analysis, we use tide gauge observations, modelling results, and a probabilistic method to combine information from several sea level rise projections. We provide projections of local mean sea level by 2100 as probability distributions. The results can be used in adaptation planning in various sectors with different risk tolerance, e.g. land use planning or nuclear safety.
Carlos Corela, Afonso Loureiro, José Luis Duarte, Luis Matias, Tiago Rebelo, and Tiago Bartolomeu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1433–1451, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1433-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1433-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We show that ocean-bottom seismometers are controlled by bottom currents, but these are not always a function of the tidal forcing. Instead we suggest that the ocean bottom has a flow regime resulting from two possible contributions: the permanent low-frequency bottom current and the tidal current along the full tidal cycle, between neap and spring tides. In the short-period noise band the ocean current generates harmonic tremors that corrupt the dataset records.
Niels J. Korsgaard, Kristian Svennevig, Anne S. Søndergaard, Gregor Luetzenburg, Mimmi Oksman, and Nicolaj K. Larsen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-32, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-32, 2023
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
A tsunami wave will leave evidence of erosion and deposition in coastal lakes, making it possible to determine the run-up height and when it occurred. Here, we use six lakes today located at elevations 19–134 m. a.s.l. close to the settlement of Saqqaq, West Greenland, to show that at least two giant tsunamis occurred 7300–7600 years ago with run-up heights larger than 40 m. We infer, that any tsunamis from at least nine giga-scale landslides must have happened 8500–10000 years ago.
Chen Chen, Charles Koll, Haizhong Wang, and Michael K. Lindell
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 733–749, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-733-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-733-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This paper uses empirical-data-based simulation to analyze how to evacuate efficiently from disasters. We find that departure delay time and evacuation decision have significant impacts on evacuation results. Evacuation results are more sensitive to walking speed, departure delay time, evacuation participation, and destinations than to other variables. This model can help authorities to prioritize resources for hazard education, community disaster preparedness, and resilience plans.
Ariadna Martín, Angel Amores, Alejandro Orfila, Tim Toomey, and Marta Marcos
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 587–600, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-587-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-587-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Tropical cyclones (TCs) are among the potentially most hazardous phenomena affecting the coasts of the Caribbean Sea. This work simulates the coastal hazards in terms of sea surface elevation and waves that originate through the passage of these events. A set of 1000 TCs have been simulated, obtained from a set of synthetic cyclones that are consistent with present-day climate. Given the large number of hurricanes used, robust values of extreme sea levels and waves are computed along the coasts.
An-Chi Cheng, Anawat Suppasri, Kwanchai Pakoksung, and Fumihiko Imamura
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 447–479, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-447-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-447-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Consecutive earthquakes occurred offshore of southern Taiwan on 26 December 2006. This event revealed unusual tsunami generation and propagation, as well as unexpected consequences for the southern Taiwanese coast (i.e., amplified waves and prolonged durations). This study aims to elucidate the source characteristics of the 2006 tsunami and the important behaviors responsible for tsunami hazards in Taiwan such as wave trapping and shelf resonance.
Jean Roger, Bernard Pelletier, Aditya Gusman, William Power, Xiaoming Wang, David Burbidge, and Maxime Duphil
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 393–414, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-393-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-393-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
On 10 February 2021 a magnitude 7.7 earthquake occurring at the southernmost part of the Vanuatu subduction zone triggered a regional tsunami that was recorded on many coastal gauges and DART stations of the south-west Pacific region. Beginning with a review of the tectonic setup and its implication in terms of tsunami generation in the region, this study aims to show our ability to reproduce a small tsunami with different types of rupture models and to discuss a larger magnitude 8.2 scenario.
Kathrin Wahle, Emil V. Stanev, and Joanna Staneva
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 415–428, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-415-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-415-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Knowledge of what causes maximum water levels is often key in coastal management. Processes, such as storm surge and atmospheric forcing, alter the predicted tide. Whilst most of these processes are modeled in present-day ocean forecasting, there is still a need for a better understanding of situations where modeled and observed water levels deviate from each other. Here, we will use machine learning to detect such anomalies within a network of sea-level observations in the North Sea.
Chuan Li, H. Tuba Özkan-Haller, Gabriel García Medina, Robert A. Holman, Peter Ruggiero, Treena M. Jensen, David B. Elson, and William R. Schneider
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 107–126, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-107-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-107-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
In this work, we examine a set of observed extreme, non-earthquake-related and non-landslide-related wave runup events. Runup events with similar characteristics have previously been attributed to trapped waves, atmospheric disturbances, and abrupt breaking of long waves. However, we find that none of these mechanisms were likely at work in the observations we examined. We show that instead, these runup events were more likely due to energetic growth of bound infragravity waves.
Eric Mortensen, Timothy Tiggeloven, Toon Haer, Bas van Bemmel, Dewi Le Bars, Sanne Muis, Dirk Eilander, Frederiek Sperna Weiland, Arno Bouwman, Willem Ligtvoet, and Philip J. Ward
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2022-284, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2022-284, 2023
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
Current levels of coastal flood risk are projected to increase in coming decades due to various reasons, e.g., sea-level rise, land subsidence, and coastal urbanisation; action is needed to minimize this future risk. We evaluate dykes and coastal levees, foreshore vegetation, zoning restrictions, and dry-proofing on the global scale to estimate what level of risk reductions are possible. We demonstrate that there are several potential adaptation pathways forward for certain areas of the world.
Shan Liu, Xianwu Shi, Qiang Liu, Jun Tan, Yuxi Sun, Qingrong Liu, and Haoshuang Guo
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 127–138, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-127-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-127-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This study proposes a quantitative method for the determination of warning water levels. The proposed method is a multidimensional scale, centered on the consideration of various factors that characterize various coastlines. The implications of our study are not only scientific, as we provide a method for water level determination that is rooted in the scientific method (and reproducible across various contexts beyond China), but they are also deeply practical.
Jaap H. Nienhuis, Jana R. Cox, Joey O'Dell, Douglas A. Edmonds, and Paolo Scussolini
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 4087–4101, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-4087-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-4087-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Humans build levees to protect themselves against floods. We need to know where they are to correctly predict flooding, for example from sea level rise. Here we have looked through documents to find levees, and checked that they exist using satellite imagery. We developed a global levee map, available at www.opendelve.eu, and we found that 24 % of people in deltas are protected by levees.
Alec Torres-Freyermuth, Gabriela Medellín, Jorge A. Kurczyn, Roger Pacheco-Castro, Jaime Arriaga, Christian M. Appendini, María Eugenia Allende-Arandía, Juan A. Gómez, Gemma L. Franklin, and Jorge Zavala-Hidalgo
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 4063–4085, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-4063-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-4063-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Barrier islands in tropical regions are prone to coastal flooding and erosion during hurricane events. The Yucatán coast was impacted by hurricanes Gamma and Delta. Inner shelf, coastal, and inland observations were acquired. Beach morphology changes show alongshore gradients. Flooding occurred on the back barrier due to heavy inland rain and the coastal aquifer's confinement. Modeling systems failed to reproduce the coastal hydrodynamic response due to uncertainties in the boundary conditions.
Panagiotis Athanasiou, Ap van Dongeren, Alessio Giardino, Michalis Vousdoukas, Jose A. A. Antolinez, and Roshanka Ranasinghe
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3897–3915, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3897-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3897-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Sandy dunes protect the hinterland from coastal flooding during storms. Thus, models that can efficiently predict dune erosion are critical for coastal zone management and early warning systems. Here we develop such a model for the Dutch coast based on machine learning techniques, allowing for dune erosion estimations in a matter of seconds relative to available computationally expensive models. Validation of the model against benchmark data and observations shows good agreement.
María Teresa Pedrosa-González, José Manuel González-Vida, Jesús Galindo-Záldivar, Sergio Ortega, Manuel Jesús Castro, David Casas, and Gemma Ercilla
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3839–3858, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3839-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3839-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The L-ML-HySEA (Landslide Multilayer Hyperbolic Systems and Efficient Algorithms) model of the tsunami triggered by the Storfjorden LS-1 landslide provides new insights into the sliding mechanism and bathymetry controlling the propagation, amplitude values and shoaling effects as well as coastal impact times. This case study provides new perspectives on tsunami hazard assessment in polar margins, where global climatic change and its related ocean warming may contribute to landslide trigger.
Cuneyt Yavuz, Kutay Yilmaz, and Gorkem Onder
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3725–3736, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3725-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3725-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Even if the coincidence of flood and tsunami hazards may be experienced once in a blue moon, it should also be investigated due to the uncertainty of the time of occurrence of these natural hazards. The objective of this study is to reveal a statistical methodology to evaluate the aggregate potential hazard levels due to flood hazards with the presence of earthquake-triggered tsunamis. The proposed methodology is applied to Fethiye city, located on the Western Mediterranean coast of Turkey.
Damiano Baldan, Elisa Coraci, Franco Crosato, Maurizio Ferla, Andrea Bonometto, and Sara Morucci
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3663–3677, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3663-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3663-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Extreme-event analysis is widely used to provide information for the design of coastal protection structures. Non-stationarity due to sea level rise can affect such estimates. Using different methods on a long time series of sea level data, we show that estimates of the magnitude of extreme events in the future can be inexact due to relative sea level rise. Thus, considering non-stationarity is important when analyzing extreme-sea-level events.
Umesh Pranavam Ayyappan Pillai, Nadia Pinardi, Ivan Federico, Salvatore Causio, Francesco Trotta, Silvia Unguendoli, and Andrea Valentini
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3413–3433, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3413-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3413-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The study presents the application of high-resolution coastal modelling for wave hindcasting on the Emilia-Romagna coastal belt. The generated coastal databases which provide an understanding of the prevailing wind-wave characteristics can aid in predicting coastal impacts.
Jeremy Rohmer, Deborah Idier, Remi Thieblemont, Goneri Le Cozannet, and François Bachoc
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3167–3182, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3167-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3167-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We quantify the influence of wave–wind characteristics, offshore water level and sea level rise (projected up to 2200) on the occurrence of flooding events at Gâvres, French Atlantic coast. Our results outline the overwhelming influence of sea level rise over time compared to the others. By showing the robustness of our conclusions to the errors in the estimation procedure, our approach proves to be valuable for exploring and characterizing uncertainties in assessments of future flooding.
Edgar U. Zorn, Aiym Orynbaikyzy, Simon Plank, Andrey Babeyko, Herlan Darmawan, Ismail Fata Robbany, and Thomas R. Walter
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3083–3104, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3083-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3083-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Tsunamis caused by volcanoes are a challenge for warning systems as they are difficult to predict and detect. In Southeast Asia there are many active volcanoes close to the coast, so it is important to identify the most likely volcanoes to cause tsunamis in the future. For this purpose, we developed a point-based score system, allowing us to rank volcanoes by the hazard they pose. The results may be used to improve local monitoring and preparedness in the affected areas.
Jorge León, Alejandra Gubler, and Alonso Ogueda
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2857–2878, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2857-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2857-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Our research focuses on how the geophysical characteristics of coastal cities can determine evacuees' vulnerability during a tsunami evacuation. We identify, analyse, and rank some of those essential characteristics by examining seven case studies in Chile through computer-based inundation, evacuation, and statistical regressive modelling. These results could lead to urban planning guidelines to enhance future evacuations and increase resilience to global tsunamis.
Azucena Román-de la Sancha, Rodolfo Silva, Omar S. Areu-Rangel, Manuel Gerardo Verduzco-Zapata, Edgar Mendoza, Norma Patricia López-Acosta, Alexandra Ossa, and Silvia García
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2589–2609, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2589-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2589-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Transport networks in coastal urban areas are vulnerable to seismic events, with damage likely due to both ground motions and tsunami loading. The paper presents an approach that captures the earthquake–tsunami effects on transport infrastructure in a coastal area, taking into consideration the combined strains of the two events. The model is applied to a case in Manzanillo, Mexico, using ground motion records of the 1995 earthquake–tsunami event.
Cited articles
Arns, A., Wahl, T., Haigh, I., Jensen, J., and Pattiaratchi, C.: Estimating
extreme water level probabilities: A comparison of the direct methods and
recommendations for best practise, Coast. Eng., 81, 51–66, 2013. a
Bernier, N. and Thompson, K.: Predicting the frequency of storm surges and
extreme sea levels in the northwest Atlantic, J. Geophys. Res.-Oceans, 111, C10009, https://doi.org/10.1029/2005JC003168, 2006. a
British Ocean Data Centre: UK Tide gauge network, available at: https://www.bodc.ac.uk/, last access: December 2021. a
Brown, J. M., Souza, A. J., and Wolf, J.: Surge modelling in the eastern Irish Sea: present and future storm impact, Ocean Dynam., 60, 227–236, 2010. a
D'Arcy, E., Tawn, J., Joly-Laugel, A., and Sifnioti, D. E.: Accounting for
seasonality in extreme sea level estimation, in preparation, 2021. a
Dee, D. P., Uppala, S., Simmons, A., Berrisford, P., Poli, P., Kobayashi, S., Andrae, U., Balmaseda, M., Balsamo, G., Bauer, P., Bechtold, P., Beljaars, A. C. M., van de Berg, L., Bidlot, J., Bormann, N., Delsol, C., Dragani, R., Fuentes, M., Geer, A. J., Haimberger, L., Healy, S. B., Hersbach, H., Holm, E. V., Isaksen, L., Kallberg, P., Kohler, M., Matricardi, M., McNally, A. P., Monge-Sanz, B. M., Morcrette, J.-J., Park, B.-K., Peubey, C., de Rosnay, P., Tavolato, C., Thepaut, J.-N., and Vitart, F.: The ERA-Interim reanalysis: Configuration and performance of the data assimilation system, Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 137, 553–597, 2011. a, b, c
de Vries, H., Breton, M., de Mulder, T., Krestenitis, Y., Ozer, J., Proctor,
R., Ruddick, K., Salomon, J. C., and Voorrips, A.: A comparison of 2D storm
surge models applied to three shallow European seas, Environ. Softw., 10, 23–42, 1995. a
de Winter, R. C., Sterl, A., and Ruessink, B. G.: Wind extremes in the North
Sea Basin under climate change: An ensemble study of 12 CMIP5 GCMs, J.
Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 118, 1601–1612, https://doi.org/10.1002/jgrd.50147, 2013. a
Edwards, T.: Future of the sea: impacts of sea level rise on the UK, Government Office for Science, Foresight Future of the sea, Government Office for Science, London, 2017. a
Eyring, V., Bony, S., Meehl, G. A., Senior, C. A., Stevens, B., Stouffer, R. J., and Taylor, K. E.: Overview of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) experimental design and organization, Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 1937–1958, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-1937-2016, 2016. a, b
Flather, R. A.: A Storm Surge Prediction Model for the Northern Bay of Bengal with Application to the Cyclone Disaster in April 1991, J. Phys. Oceanogr.,
24, 172–190, 1994. a
Furner, R., Williams, J., Horsburgh, K., , and Saulter, A.: NEMO-surge:
Setting up an accurate tidal model, Forecasting Research Technical Report
No. FRTR610, Met Office, UK, available at:
https://digital.nmla.metoffice.gov.uk/IO_0499462b-eea6-4313-8761-ee41d533872c/ (last access: December 2021), 2016. a
Grabemann, I., Gaslikova, L., Brodhagen, T., and Rudolph, E.: Extreme storm
tides in the German Bight (North Sea) and their potential for amplification,
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1985–2000, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1985-2020, 2020. a
Haigh, I. D., Nicholls, R., and Wells, N.: A comparison of the main methods for estimating probabilities of extreme still water levels, Coast. Eng., 57, 838–849, 2010. a
Haigh, I. D., Wadey, M. P., Wahl, T., Ozsoy, O., Nicholls, R. J., Brown, J. M., Horsburgh, K., and Gouldby, B.: Spatial and temporal analysis of extreme sea level and storm surge events around the coastline of the UK, Scient.
Data, 3, 1–14, 2016. a
Haigh, I. D., Ozsoy, O., Wadey, M. P., Nicholls, R. J., Gallop, S. L., Wahl, T., and Brown, J. M.: An improved database of coastal flooding in the United Kingdom from 1915 to 2016, Scient. Data, 4, 170100, https://doi.org/10.1038/sdata.2017.100, 2017. a
Horsburgh, K., Haigh, I., Williams, J., De Dominicis, M., Wolf, J., Inayatillah, A., and Byrne, D.: “Grey swan” storm surges pose a greater
coastal flood hazard than climate change, Ocean Dynam., 71, 715–730, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10236-021-01453-0, 2021. a, b, c, d
Howard, T. and Clark, P.: Correction and downscaling of NWP wind speed
forecasts, Meteorol. Appl., 14, 105–116, 2007. a
Howard, T. and Palmer, M. D.: Sea-level rise allowances for the UK, Environ. Res. Commun., 2, 035003, https://doi.org/10.1088/2515-7620/ab7cb4, 2020. a
Howard, T., Palmer, M. D., and Bricheno, L. M.: Contributions to 21st century
projections of extreme sea-level change around the UK, Environ. Res. Commun., 1, 095002, https://doi.org/10.1088/2515-7620/ab42d7, 2019. a
IPCC: IPCC Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate, edited by: Pörtner, H.-O., Roberts, D. C., Masson-Delmotte, V., Zhai, P., Tignor, M., Poloczanska, E., Mintenbeck, K., Nicolai, M., Okem, A., Petzold, J., Rama, B., and Weyer, N., IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Geneva, Switzerland, available at: https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/sites/3/2019/12/SROCC_FullReport_FINAL.pdf (last access: December 2021), 2019. a
Jacob, D., Petersen, J., Eggert, B., Alias, A., Christensen, O. B., Bouwer, L. M., Braun, A., Colette, A., Déqué, M., Georgievski, G., Georgopoulou, E., Gobiet, A., Menut, L., Nikulin, G., Haensler, A., Hempelmann, N., Jones, C., Keuler, K., Kovats, S., Kröner, N., Kotlarski, S., Kriegsmann, A., Martin, E., van Meijgaard, E., Moseley, C., Pfeifer, S., Preuschmann, S., Radermacher, C., Radtke, K., Rechid, D., Rounsevell, M., Samuelsson, P., Somot, S., Soussana, J. F., Teichmann, C., Valentini, R., Vautard, R., Weber, B., and Yiou, P.: EURO-CORDEX: New high-resolution climate change projections for European impact research, Reg. Environ. Change, 14, 563–578, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-013-0499-2, 2014. a, b
Lowe, J., Howard, T., Pardaens, A., Tinker, J., Holt, J., Wakelin, S., Milne,
G., Leake, J., Wolf, J., Horsburgh, K., Reeder, T., Jenkins, G., Ridley, J.,
Dye, S., and Bradley, S.: UK Climate Projections Science Report: Marine and Coastal Projections, Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, UK, 2009. a
Menéndez, M. and Woodworth, P. L.: Changes in extreme high water levels
based on a quasi-global tide-gauge data set, J. Geophys. Res., 115, C10011, https://doi.org/10.1029/2009jc005997, 2010. a
O'Neill, C., Saulter, A., Williams, J., and Horsburgh, K.: NEMO-surge:
Application of atmospheric forcing and surge evaluation, Forecasting
Research Technical Report No. FRTR619, Met Office, UK, available at:
https://digital.nmla.metoffice.gov.uk/IO_53fa4f69-432c-40bb-9481-8c7dfbd6492d/ (last access: December 2021), 2016. a
Palmer, M. D., Gregory, J. M., Bagge, M., Howard, T., Klemann, V.,
Roberts Christopher, D., Slangen, A., and Spada, G.: Exploring the drivers of global and local sea-level change over the 21st century and beyond, Earth's Future, 8, e2019EF001413, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019EF001413, 2020. a
Priestley, M. D., Ackerley, D., Catto, J. L., Hodges, K. I., McDonald, R. E.,
and Lee, R. W.: An overview of the extratropical storm tracks in CMIP6 historical simulations, J. Climate, 33, 6315–6343, 2020. a
Roberts, M. J., Vidale, P. L., Senior, C., Hewitt, H. T., Bates, C., Berthou, S., Chang, P., Christensen, H. M., Danilov, S., Demory, M.-E., Griffies, S. M., Haarsma, R., Jung, T., Martin, G., Minobe, S., Ringler, T., Satoh, M., Schiemann, R., Scoccimarro, E., Stephens, G., and Wehner, M. F.: The benefits of global high resolution for climate simulation: process understanding and the enabling of stakeholder decisions at the regional scale, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 99, 2341–2359, 2018. a
Sterl, A., Van den Brink, H., de Vries, H., Haarsma, R., and van Meijgaard, E.: An ensemble study of extreme storm surge related water levels in the North Sea in a changing climate, Ocean Sci., 5, 369–378,
https://doi.org/10.5194/os-5-369-2009, 2009. a, b
Taylor, K., Stouffer, R., and Meehl, G.: An Overview of CMIP5 and the
experiment design, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 93, 485–498, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00094.1, 2012.
a
Thompson, V., Dunstone, N. J., Scaife, A. A., Smith, D. M., Slingo, J. M.,
Brown, S., and Belcher, S. E.: High risk of unprecedented UK rainfall in the current climate, Nat. Commun., 8, 1–6, 2017. a
Van den Brink, H., Können, G., Opsteegh, J., van Oldenborgh, G. J., and
Burgers, G.: Improving 104-year surge level estimates using data of the ECMWF seasonal prediction system, Geophys. Res. Lett., 31, L17210,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2004GL020610, 2004. a
van Meijgaard, E., van Ulft, L., van de Berg, W., Bosveld, F. C., van den Hurk, B., Lenderink, G., and Siebesma, A.: Technical report; TR-302, The KNMI regional atmospheric climate model RACMO version 2.1, available at:
https://www.knmi.nl/knmi-bibliotheek (last access: December 2021), 2020. a
Wadey, M. P., Haigh, I., Nicholls, R. J., Brown, J. M., Horsburgh, K., Carroll, B., Gallop, S. L., Mason, T., and Bradshaw, E.: A comparison of the 31 January–1 February 1953 and 5–6 December 2013 coastal flood events around the UK, Front. Mar. Sci., 2, 84, https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2015.00084, 2015. a, b, c, d
Walters, D., Baran, A. J., Boutle, I., Brooks, M., Earnshaw, P., Edwards, J., Furtado, K., Hill, P., Lock, A., Manners, J., Morcrette, C., Mulcahy, J., Sanchez, C., Smith, C., Stratton, R., Tennant, W., Tomassini, L., Van Weverberg, K., Vosper, S., Willett, M., Browse, J., Bushell, A., Carslaw, K., Dalvi, M., Essery, R., Gedney, N., Hardiman, S., Johnson, B., Johnson, C., Jones, A., Jones, C., Mann, G., Milton, S., Rumbold, H., Sellar, A., Ujiie, M., Whitall, M., Williams, K., and Zerroukat, M.: The Met Office Unified Model Global Atmosphere 7.0/7.1 and JULES Global Land 7.0 configurations, Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 1909–1963, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-1909-2019, 2019. a
Weibull, W.: A statistical theory of strength of materials, IVB-Handl., Generalstabens Litografiska Anstalts Förlag, Stockholm, 1939. a
Williams, K. D., Copsey, D., Blockley, E. W., Bodas-Salcedo, A., Calvert, D., Comer, R., Davis, P., Graham, T., Hewitt, H. T., Hill, R., Hyder, P., Ineson, S., Johns, T. C., Keen, A. B., Lee, R. W., Megann, A., Milton, S. F., Rae, J. G. L., Roberts, M. J., Scaife, A. A., Schiemann, R., Storkey, D., Thorpe, L., Watterson, I. G., Walters, D. N., West, A., Wood, R. A., Woollings, T., and Xavier, P. K.: The Met Office global coupled model 3.0 and 3.1 (GC3.0 and GC3.1) configurations, J. Adv. Model. Earth Syst., 10, 357–380, 2018. a
Williams, K. D., Harris, C. M., Bodas-Salcedo, A., Camp, J., Comer, R. E.,
Copsey, D., Fereday, D., Graham, T., Hill, R., Hinton, T., Hyder, P., Ineson,
S., Masato, G., Milton, S. F., Roberts, M. J., Rowell, D. P., Sanchez, C.,
Shelly, A., Sinha, B., Walters, D. N., West, A., Woollings, T., and Xavier,
P. K.: The Met Office Global Coupled model 2.0 (GC2) configuration, Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 1509–1524, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-1509-2015, 2015. a, b, c
Woollings, T., Hannachi, A., and Hoskins, B.: Variability of the North Atlantic eddy-driven jet stream, Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 136, 856–868, 2010. a
Download
The requested paper has a corresponding corrigendum published. Please read the corrigendum first before downloading the article.
- Article
(5079 KB) - Full-text XML
Short summary
We use a computer model to simulate storm surges around the coast of the United Kingdom. The model is based on the physics of the atmosphere and oceans. We hope that this will help us to better quantify extreme events: even bigger than those that have been seen in the tide gauge record. Our model simulates events which are comparable to the catastrophic 1953 storm surge. Model simulations have the potential to reduce the uncertainty in inferences of the most extreme surge return levels.
We use a computer model to simulate storm surges around the coast of the United Kingdom. The...
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint