Articles | Volume 21, issue 6
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1867–1885, 2021
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1867-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Special issue: Understanding compound weather and climate events and related...
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1867–1885, 2021
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1867-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article 17 Jun 2021
Research article | 17 Jun 2021
Towards a compound-event-oriented climate model evaluation: a decomposition of the underlying biases in multivariate fire and heat stress hazards
Roberto Villalobos-Herrera et al.
Related authors
No articles found.
Elisabeth Tschumi, Sebastian Lienert, Karin van der Wiel, Fortunat Joos, and Jakob Zscheischler
Biogeosciences Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2021-191, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2021-191, 2021
Preprint under review for BG
Short summary
Short summary
Droughts and heatwaves are expected to occur more often in the future but their effects on land vegetation and the carbon cycle are poorly understood. We use six climate scenarios with differing extremes occurrence and a vegetation model to analyze these effects. We find that tree coverage and associated plant productivity increases under a climate with no extremes. Frequent co-occurring droughts and heatwaves decrease plant productivity more than the combined effects of single drought or heat.
Greta Cazzaniga, Carlo De Michele, Michele D'Amico, Cristina Deidda, Antonio Ghezzi, and Roberto Nebuloni
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2021-389, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2021-389, 2021
Preprint under review for HESS
Short summary
Short summary
Rainfall estimates are usually obtained from rain gauges, weather radars, or satellites. An alternative is the measurement of the signal loss induced by rainfall on commercial microwave links (CMLs). In this work we assess the hydrologic response of Lambro basin, when CML retrieved rainfall is used as input. CML estimates agree with rain gauges data. CML-driven discharge simulations show performances comparable with those from rain gauges, if a CML-based calibration of the model is undertaken.
Fabiola Banfi and Carlo De Michele
The Cryosphere Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2021-145, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2021-145, 2021
Preprint under review for TC
Short summary
Short summary
Climate changes require a dynamic description of glaciers in hydrological models. In this study we focus on the local modeling of snow and firn. We tested our model at the site of Colle Gnifetti, 4400–4550 m a.s.l. The model shows that wind erodes all the precipitation of the cold months, while snow is in part conserved between April and September, since higher temperatures protect snow from erosion. We also compared modeled and observed firn density obtaining a satisfying agreement.
Jun Li, Zhaoli Wang, Xushu Wu, Jakob Zscheischler, Shenglian Guo, and Xiaohong Chen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1587–1601, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-1587-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-1587-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We introduce a daily-scale index, termed the standardized compound drought and heat index (SCDHI), to measure the key features of compound dry-hot conditions. SCDHI can not only monitor the long-term compound dry-hot events, but can also capture such events at sub-monthly scale and reflect the related vegetation activity impacts. The index can provide a new tool to quantify sub-monthly characteristics of compound dry-hot events, which are vital for releasing early and timely warning.
Natacha Le Grix, Jakob Zscheischler, Charlotte Laufkötter, Cecile S. Rousseaux, and Thomas L. Frölicher
Biogeosciences, 18, 2119–2137, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-2119-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-2119-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Marine ecosystems could suffer severe damage from the co-occurrence of a marine heat wave with extremely low chlorophyll concentration. Here, we provide a first assessment of compound marine heat wave and
low-chlorophyll events in the global ocean from 1998 to 2018. We reveal hotspots of these compound events in the equatorial Pacific and in the Arabian Sea and show that they mostly occur in summer at high latitudes and their frequency is modulated by large-scale modes of climate variability.
Johannes Vogel, Pauline Rivoire, Cristina Deidda, Leila Rahimi, Christoph A. Sauter, Elisabeth Tschumi, Karin van der Wiel, Tianyi Zhang, and Jakob Zscheischler
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 151–172, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-151-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-151-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We present a statistical approach for automatically identifying multiple drivers of extreme impacts based on LASSO regression. We apply the approach to simulated crop failure in the Northern Hemisphere and identify which meteorological variables including climate extreme indices and which seasons are relevant to predict crop failure. The presented approach can help unravel compounding drivers in high-impact events and could be applied to other impacts such as wildfires or flooding.
Marco Bongio, Ali Nadir Arslan, Cemal Melih Tanis, and Carlo De Michele
The Cryosphere, 15, 369–387, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-369-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-369-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The capability of time-lapse photography to retrieve snow depth time series was tested. We demonstrated that this method can be efficiently used in three different case studies: two in the Italian Alps and one in a forested region of Finland, with an accuracy comparable to the most common methods such as ultrasonic sensors or manual measurements. We hope that this simple method based only on a camera and a graduated stake can enable snow depth measurements in dangerous and inaccessible sites.
Fabiola Banfi and Carlo De Michele
The Cryosphere Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2020-357, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2020-357, 2021
Manuscript not accepted for further review
Short summary
Short summary
Climate changes require a dynamic description of glaciers in hydrological models. In this study we focus on the local modeling of snow and firn. We tested our model at the site of Colle Gnifetti, 4400–4550 m a.s.l. The model shows that wind erodes all the precipitation of the cold months, while snow is in part conserved between May and September, since higher temperatures protect snow from erosion. We also compared modeled and observed firn density obtaining a satisfying agreement.
Jakob Zscheischler, Philippe Naveau, Olivia Martius, Sebastian Engelke, and Christoph C. Raible
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 1–16, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Compound extremes such as heavy precipitation and extreme winds can lead to large damage. To date it is unclear how well climate models represent such compound extremes. Here we present a new measure to assess differences in the dependence structure of bivariate extremes. This measure is applied to assess differences in the dependence of compound precipitation and wind extremes between three model simulations and one reanalysis dataset in a domain in central Europe.
Andreia Filipa Silva Ribeiro, Ana Russo, Célia Marina Gouveia, Patrícia Páscoa, and Jakob Zscheischler
Biogeosciences, 17, 4815–4830, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-4815-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-4815-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
This study investigates the impacts of compound dry and hot extremes on crop yields, namely wheat and barley, over two regions in Spain dominated by rainfed agriculture. We provide estimates of the conditional probability of crop loss under compound dry and hot conditions, which could be an important tool for responsible authorities to mitigate the impacts magnified by the interactions between the different hazards.
Emanuele Bevacqua, Michalis I. Vousdoukas, Theodore G. Shepherd, and Mathieu Vrac
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1765–1782, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1765-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1765-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Coastal compound flooding (CF), caused by interacting storm surges and high water runoff, is typically studied based on concurring storm surge extremes with either precipitation or river discharge extremes. Globally, these two approaches show similar CF spatial patterns, especially where the CF potential is the highest. Deviations between the two approaches increase with the catchment size. The precipitation-based analysis allows for considering
local-rainfall-driven CF and CF in small rivers.
Andreia F. S. Ribeiro, Ana Russo, Célia M. Gouveia, Patrícia Páscoa, and Carlos A. L. Pires
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 2795–2809, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-2795-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-2795-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
This work investigates the dependence between drought hazard and yield anomalies of rainfed cropping systems in the Iberian Peninsula using the copula theory. The applied methodology allows us to estimate the likelihood of wheat and barley loss under drought conditions, and a dependence among extreme values is suggested. From the decision-making point of view this study aims to contribute to the mitigation of drought-related crop failure.
Inne Vanderkelen, Jakob Zschleischler, Lukas Gudmundsson, Klaus Keuler, Francois Rineau, Natalie Beenaerts, Jaco Vangronsveld, and Wim Thiery
Biogeosciences Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2019-267, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2019-267, 2019
Manuscript not accepted for further review
Jakob Zscheischler, Erich M. Fischer, and Stefan Lange
Earth Syst. Dynam., 10, 31–43, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-31-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-31-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Many climate models have biases in different variables throughout the world. Adjusting these biases is necessary for estimating climate impacts. Here we demonstrate that widely used univariate bias adjustment methods do not work well for multivariate impacts. We illustrate this problem using fire risk and heat stress as impact indicators. Using an approach that adjusts not only biases in the individual climate variables but also biases in the correlation between them can resolve these problems.
Martha M. Vogel, Jakob Zscheischler, and Sonia I. Seneviratne
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 1107–1125, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-1107-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-1107-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Climate change projections of temperature extremes are particularly uncertain in central Europe. We demonstrate that varying soil moisture–atmosphere feedbacks in current climate models leads to an enhancement of model differences; thus, they can explain the large uncertainties in extreme temperature projections. Using an observation-based constraint, we show that the strong drying and large increase in temperatures exhibited by models on the hottest day in central Europe are highly unlikely.
Donghai Wu, Philippe Ciais, Nicolas Viovy, Alan K. Knapp, Kevin Wilcox, Michael Bahn, Melinda D. Smith, Sara Vicca, Simone Fatichi, Jakob Zscheischler, Yue He, Xiangyi Li, Akihiko Ito, Almut Arneth, Anna Harper, Anna Ukkola, Athanasios Paschalis, Benjamin Poulter, Changhui Peng, Daniel Ricciuto, David Reinthaler, Guangsheng Chen, Hanqin Tian, Hélène Genet, Jiafu Mao, Johannes Ingrisch, Julia E. S. M. Nabel, Julia Pongratz, Lena R. Boysen, Markus Kautz, Michael Schmitt, Patrick Meir, Qiuan Zhu, Roland Hasibeder, Sebastian Sippel, Shree R. S. Dangal, Stephen Sitch, Xiaoying Shi, Yingping Wang, Yiqi Luo, Yongwen Liu, and Shilong Piao
Biogeosciences, 15, 3421–3437, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-3421-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-3421-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Our results indicate that most ecosystem models do not capture the observed asymmetric responses under normal precipitation conditions, suggesting an overestimate of the drought effects and/or underestimate of the watering impacts on primary productivity, which may be the result of inadequate representation of key eco-hydrological processes. Collaboration between modelers and site investigators needs to be strengthened to improve the specific processes in ecosystem models in following studies.
Katia Cugerone, Carlo De Michele, Antonio Ghezzi, Vorne Gianelle, and Stefania Gilardoni
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 4831–4842, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-4831-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-4831-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
The aerosol particle number size distributions (PNSDs) measured in one urban background site (Milan) and in one rural mountainous site (Oga San Colombano) have been studied and compared. Detailed statistical analyses have shown that a common empirical PNSD pattern exists, except for the urban winter data. In order to explain this phenomenon, we analysed the aerosol dynamics by considering the influence of primary aerosol components and the interaction with precipitation and high wind speed.
Jannis von Buttlar, Jakob Zscheischler, Anja Rammig, Sebastian Sippel, Markus Reichstein, Alexander Knohl, Martin Jung, Olaf Menzer, M. Altaf Arain, Nina Buchmann, Alessandro Cescatti, Damiano Gianelle, Gerard Kiely, Beverly E. Law, Vincenzo Magliulo, Hank Margolis, Harry McCaughey, Lutz Merbold, Mirco Migliavacca, Leonardo Montagnani, Walter Oechel, Marian Pavelka, Matthias Peichl, Serge Rambal, Antonio Raschi, Russell L. Scott, Francesco P. Vaccari, Eva van Gorsel, Andrej Varlagin, Georg Wohlfahrt, and Miguel D. Mahecha
Biogeosciences, 15, 1293–1318, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-1293-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-1293-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Our work systematically quantifies extreme heat and drought event impacts on gross primary productivity (GPP) and ecosystem respiration globally across a wide range of ecosystems. We show that heat extremes typically increased mainly respiration whereas drought decreased both fluxes. Combined heat and drought extremes had opposing effects offsetting each other for respiration, but there were also strong reductions in GPP and hence the strongest reductions in the ecosystems carbon sink capacity.
Miguel D. Mahecha, Fabian Gans, Sebastian Sippel, Jonathan F. Donges, Thomas Kaminski, Stefan Metzger, Mirco Migliavacca, Dario Papale, Anja Rammig, and Jakob Zscheischler
Biogeosciences, 14, 4255–4277, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-4255-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-4255-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
We investigate the likelihood of ecological in situ networks to detect and monitor the impact of extreme events in the terrestrial biosphere.
Jakob Zscheischler, Miguel D. Mahecha, Valerio Avitabile, Leonardo Calle, Nuno Carvalhais, Philippe Ciais, Fabian Gans, Nicolas Gruber, Jens Hartmann, Martin Herold, Kazuhito Ichii, Martin Jung, Peter Landschützer, Goulven G. Laruelle, Ronny Lauerwald, Dario Papale, Philippe Peylin, Benjamin Poulter, Deepak Ray, Pierre Regnier, Christian Rödenbeck, Rosa M. Roman-Cuesta, Christopher Schwalm, Gianluca Tramontana, Alexandra Tyukavina, Riccardo Valentini, Guido van der Werf, Tristram O. West, Julie E. Wolf, and Markus Reichstein
Biogeosciences, 14, 3685–3703, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-3685-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-3685-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Here we synthesize a wide range of global spatiotemporal observational data on carbon exchanges between the Earth surface and the atmosphere. A key challenge was to consistently combining observational products of terrestrial and aquatic surfaces. Our primary goal is to identify today’s key uncertainties and observational shortcomings that would need to be addressed in future measurement campaigns or expansions of in situ observatories.
Jakob Zscheischler, Rene Orth, and Sonia I. Seneviratne
Biogeosciences, 14, 3309–3320, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-3309-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-3309-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
We use newly established methods to compute bivariate return periods of temperature and precipitation and relate those to crop yield variability in Europe. Most often, crop yields are lower when it is hot and dry and higher when it is cold and wet. The variability in crop yields along a specific climate gradient can be captured well by return periods aligned with these gradients. This study provides new possibilities for investigating the relationship between crop yield variability and climate.
Emanuele Bevacqua, Douglas Maraun, Ingrid Hobæk Haff, Martin Widmann, and Mathieu Vrac
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2701–2723, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-2701-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-2701-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
We develop a conceptual model to quantify the risk of compound events (CEs), i.e. extreme impacts to society which are driven by statistically dependent climatic variables. Based on this model we study compound floods, i.e. joint storm surge and high river level, in Ravenna (Italy). The model includes meteorological predictors which (1) provide insight into the physical processes underlying CEs, as well as into the temporal variability, and (2) allow us to statistically downscale CEs.
Sebastian Sippel, Jakob Zscheischler, Miguel D. Mahecha, Rene Orth, Markus Reichstein, Martha Vogel, and Sonia I. Seneviratne
Earth Syst. Dynam., 8, 387–403, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-387-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-387-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
The present study (1) evaluates land–atmosphere coupling in the CMIP5 multi-model ensemble against an ensemble of benchmarking datasets and (2) refines the model ensemble using a land–atmosphere coupling diagnostic as constraint. Our study demonstrates that a considerable fraction of coupled climate models overemphasize warm-season
moisture-limitedclimate regimes in midlatitude regions. This leads to biases in daily-scale temperature extremes, which are alleviated in a constrained ensemble.
Francesco Avanzi, Alberto Bianchi, Alberto Cina, Carlo De Michele, Paolo Maschio, Diana Pagliari, Daniele Passoni, Livio Pinto, Marco Piras, and Lorenzo Rossi
The Cryosphere Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2017-57, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2017-57, 2017
Revised manuscript not accepted
Short summary
Short summary
We compare three different instruments used to collect snow depth, i.e., photogrammetric surveys using Unmanned Aerial Systems (UAS), a 3D laser scanning, and manual probing. The relatively high density of manual data (135 pt over 6700 m2, i.e., 2 pt/100 m2) enables to assess the performance of UAS in capturing the marked spatial variability of snow. Results suggest that UAS represent a competitive choice among existing techniques for high-precision, high-resolution remote sensing of snow.
Sebastian Sippel, Jakob Zscheischler, Martin Heimann, Holger Lange, Miguel D. Mahecha, Geert Jan van Oldenborgh, Friederike E. L. Otto, and Markus Reichstein
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 441–458, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-441-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-441-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
The paper re-investigates the question whether observed precipitation extremes and annual totals have been increasing in the world's dry regions over the last 60 years. Despite recently postulated increasing trends, we demonstrate that large uncertainties prevail due to (1) the choice of dryness definition and (2) statistical data processing. In fact, we find only minor (and only some significant) increases if (1) dryness is based on aridity and (2) statistical artefacts are accounted for.
Francesco Avanzi, Hiroyuki Hirashima, Satoru Yamaguchi, Takafumi Katsushima, and Carlo De Michele
The Cryosphere, 10, 2013–2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-2013-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-2013-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
We investigate capillary barriers and preferential flow in layered snow during nine cold laboratory experiments. The dynamics of each sample were replicated solving Richards equation within the 1-D multi-layer physically based SNOWPACK model. Results show that both processes affect the speed of water infiltration in stratified snow and are marked by a high degree of spatial variability at cm scale and complex 3-D patterns.
Bjorn-Gustaf J. Brooks, Ankur R. Desai, Britton B. Stephens, Anna M. Michalak, and Jakob Zscheischler
Biogeosciences Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2016-223, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2016-223, 2016
Manuscript not accepted for further review
Short summary
Short summary
CO2 is the primary greenhouse gas, and its abundance in the atmosphere tends to increase during disturbances like drought. This paper demonstrates how CO2 measurements are combined with models to determine not only how strongly different locations influence CO2 measurement stations, but also the capacity of those measurement stations to detect drought effects. Understanding detection sensitivity will help assess what kinds of changes and turnings points can be monitored using atmospheric CO2.
Carlo De Michele, Francesco Avanzi, Daniele Passoni, Riccardo Barzaghi, Livio Pinto, Paolo Dosso, Antonio Ghezzi, Roberto Gianatti, and Giacomo Della Vedova
The Cryosphere, 10, 511–522, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-511-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-511-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
We investigate snow depth distribution at peak accumulation over a small Alpine area using photogrammetry-based surveys with a fixed wing unmanned aerial system. Results reveal that UAS estimations of point snow depth present an average difference with reference to manual measurements equal to -0.073 m. Moreover, in this case study snow depth standard deviation (hence coefficient of variation) increases with decreasing cell size, but it stabilizes for resolutions smaller than 1 m.
P. Licznar, C. De Michele, and W. Adamowski
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 485–506, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-485-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-485-2015, 2015
P. Da Ronco and C. De Michele
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 4579–4600, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-4579-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-4579-2014, 2014
Short summary
Short summary
The negative impacts of cloud obstruction in snow mapping from MODIS and a new reliable cloud removal procedure for the Italian Alps.
T. Alberti, F. Lepreti, A. Vecchio, E. Bevacqua, V. Capparelli, and V. Carbone
Clim. Past, 10, 1751–1762, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1751-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1751-2014, 2014
J. Zscheischler, M. Reichstein, S. Harmeling, A. Rammig, E. Tomelleri, and M. D. Mahecha
Biogeosciences, 11, 2909–2924, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-2909-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-2909-2014, 2014
J. v. Buttlar, J. Zscheischler, and M. D. Mahecha
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 21, 203–215, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-21-203-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-21-203-2014, 2014
Related subject area
Other Hazards (e.g., Glacial and Snow Hazards, Karst, Wildfires Hazards, and Medical Geo-Hazards)
Multi-decadal geomorphic changes of a low-angle valley glacier in the East Kunlun Mountains: remote sensing observations and detachment hazard assessment
Spatial and temporal subsidence characteristics in Wuhan (China), during 2015–2019, inferred from Sentinel-1 synthetic aperture radar (SAR) interferometry
Formation, evolution, and drainage of short-lived glacial lakes in permafrost environments of the northern Teskey Range, Central Asia
ABWiSE v1.0: Toward and Agent-Based Approach to Simulating Wildfire Spread
Impact of information presentation on interpretability of spatial hazard information: Lessons from a study in avalanche safety
Assessing the effect of lithological setting, block characteristics and slope topography on the runout length of rockfalls in the Alps and on the island of La Réunion
Evolution of surface deformation related to salt-extraction-caused sinkholes in Solotvyno (Ukraine) revealed by Sentinel-1 radar interferometry
Attribution of the Australian bushfire risk to anthropogenic climate change
Synoptic atmospheric circulation patterns associated with deep persistent slab avalanches in the western United States
A regional spatiotemporal analysis of large magnitude snow avalanches using tree rings
Examining the operational use of avalanche problems with decision trees and model-generated weather and snowpack variables
A classification scheme to determine wildfires from the satellite record in the cool grasslands of southern Canada: considerations for fire occurrence modelling and warning criteria
Assessments of land subsidence along the Rizhao–Lankao high-speed railway at Heze, China, between 2015 and 2019 with Sentinel-1 data
Tailings-flow runout analysis: examining the applicability of a semi-physical area–volume relationship using a novel database
Experimental assessment of the relationship between rainfall intensity and sinkholes caused by damaged sewer pipes
The mud volcanoes at Santa Barbara and Aragona (Sicily, Italy): Their potential hazards for a correct risk assessment
Non-stationary extreme value analysis of ground snow loads in the French Alps: a comparison with building standards
Sensitivity of modeled snow stability data to meteorological input uncertainty
Fire Weather Index: the skill provided by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts ensemble prediction system
The 1958 Lituya Bay tsunami – pre-event bathymetry reconstruction and 3D numerical modelling utilising the computational fluid dynamics software Flow-3D
On snow stability interpretation of extended column test results
Snow avalanche detection and mapping in multitemporal and multiorbital radar images from TerraSAR-X and Sentinel-1
Evolution of a pyrocumulonimbus event associated with an extreme wildfire in Tasmania, Australia
Evaluation of Global Fire Weather Database reanalysis and short-term forecast products
Satellite hydrology observations as operational indicators of forecasted fire danger across the contiguous United States
Quantifying seasonal cornice dynamics using a terrestrial laser scanner in Svalbard, Norway
Wildfire ignition probability in Belgium
Snow gliding and glide-snow avalanches: recent outcomes from two experimental test sites in Aosta Valley (northwestern Italian Alps)
The first version of the Pan-European Indoor Radon Map
Stability charts based on the finite element method for underground cavities in soft carbonate rocks: validation through case-study applications
Exploring the relationship between avalanche hazard and run list terrain choices at a helicopter skiing operation
Three-dimensional inverse modeling of EM-LIN data for the exploration of coastal sinkholes in Quintana Roo, Mexico
Wildland fire potential outlooks for Portugal using meteorological indices of fire danger
Contrasting large fire activity in the French Mediterranean
Simulating the effects of weather and climate on large wildfires in France
A method of deriving operation-specific ski run classes for avalanche risk management decisions in mechanized skiing
Using cellular automata to simulate wildfire propagation and to assist in fire management
Automated snow avalanche release area delineation – validation of existing algorithms and proposition of a new object-based approach for large-scale hazard indication mapping
Brief Communication: Measuring rock decelerations and rotation changes during short-duration ground impacts
Impact of wildfires on Canada's oil sands facilities
Spatial consistency and bias in avalanche forecasts – a case study in the European Alps
Has fire policy decreased the return period of the largest wildfire events in France? A Bayesian assessment based on extreme value theory
Communicating public avalanche warnings – what works?
Growth of a sinkhole in a seismic zone of the northern Apennines (Italy)
Stability assessment of roadbed affected by ground subsidence adjacent to urban railways
New experimental diagnostics in combustion of forest fuels: microscale appreciation for a macroscale approach
Determining the drivers for snow gliding
The effects of gravel cushion particle size and thickness on the coefficient of restitution in rockfall impacts
Global assessment of rural–urban interface in Portugal related to land cover changes
Estimating grassland curing with remotely sensed data
Xiaowen Wang, Lin Liu, Yan Hu, Tonghua Wu, Lin Zhao, Qiao Liu, Rui Zhang, Bo Zhang, and Guoxiang Liu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2791–2810, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2791-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2791-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We characterized the multi-decadal geomorphic changes of a low-angle valley glacier in the East Kunlun Mountains and assessed the detachment hazard influence. The observations reveal a slow surge-like dynamic pattern of the glacier tongue. The maximum runout distances of two endmember avalanche scenarios were presented. This study provides a reference to evaluate the runout hazards of low-angle mountain glaciers prone to detachment.
Xuguo Shi, Shaocheng Zhang, Mi Jiang, Yuanyuan Pei, Tengteng Qu, Jinhu Xu, and Chen Yang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2285–2297, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2285-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2285-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We mapped the subsidence of Wuhan using Sentinel-1 synthetic aperture radar (SAR) images acquired during 2015–2019. Overall subsidence coincides with the distribution of engineered geological regions with soft soils, while the subsidence centers shifted with urban construction activities. Correlation between karst subsidence and concentrated rainfall was identified in Qingling–Jiangdi. Results indicate that interferometric SAR can be employed to routinely monitor and identify geohazards.
Mirlan Daiyrov and Chiyuki Narama
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2245–2256, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2245-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2245-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
In the Teskey Range of the Tien Shan (Kyrgyz Republic), four outburst flood disasters from short-lived glacial lakes in 2006, 2008, 2013, and 2014 caused severe damages in the downstream part. Short-lived glacial lakes grow rapidly and drain within a few months, due to closure and opening of an outlet ice tunnel in an ice-cored moraine complex at the glacier front. We investigated how short-lived glacial lakes store and drain water over short periods based on field survey and satellite data.
Jeffrey Katan and Liliana Perez
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2021-179, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2021-179, 2021
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
Wildfires are an integral part of ecosystems the world over, but also pose a serious risk to human life and property. To further our understanding of wildfires and allow experimentation without recourse to live fires, this study presents an agent-based modelling approach to combine the complexity found in physical models with the ease of computation of empirical models. Model calibration and validation shows bottom-up simulation encompasses the core elements of complexity of fire across scales.
Kathryn C. Fisher, Pascal Haegeli, and Patrick Mair
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2021-147, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2021-147, 2021
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
Avalanche warning services publish condition reports to help backcountry recreationists make informed decisions about when and where to travel in avalanche terrain. We tested how different graphic representations of terrain information can affect users’ ability to interpret and apply the provided information. Our study shows that a combined presentation of aspect and elevation information is the most effective. These results can be used to improve avalanche risk communication products.
Kerstin Wegner, Florian Haas, Tobias Heckmann, Anne Mangeney, Virginie Durand, Nicolas Villeneuve, Philippe Kowalski, Aline Peltier, and Michael Becht
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1159–1177, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1159-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1159-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
In mountainous regions rockfall is a common geomorphic process. We selected four study sites that feature different rock types. High-resolution terrestrial laser scanning data were acquired to measure the block size and block shape (axial ratio) of rockfall particles on the scree deposits. Laser scanning data were also used to characterize the morphology of these landforms. Our results show that hill slope and rock particle properties govern rock particle runout in a complex manner.
Eszter Szűcs, Sándor Gönczy, István Bozsó, László Bányai, Alexandru Szakacs, Csilla Szárnya, and Viktor Wesztergom
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 977–993, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-977-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-977-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Sinkhole formation and post-collapse deformation in the Solotvyno salt mining area was studied where the salt dissolution due to water intrusion poses a significant risk. Based on a Sentinel-1 data set, remarkable surface deformation with a maximum rate of 5 cm/yr was revealed, and it was demonstrated that the deformation process has a linear characteristic although the mining activity was ended more than 10 years ago.
Geert Jan van Oldenborgh, Folmer Krikken, Sophie Lewis, Nicholas J. Leach, Flavio Lehner, Kate R. Saunders, Michiel van Weele, Karsten Haustein, Sihan Li, David Wallom, Sarah Sparrow, Julie Arrighi, Roop K. Singh, Maarten K. van Aalst, Sjoukje Y. Philip, Robert Vautard, and Friederike E. L. Otto
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 941–960, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-941-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-941-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Southeastern Australia suffered from disastrous bushfires during the 2019/20 fire season, raising the question whether these have become more likely due to climate change. We found no attributable trend in extreme annual or monthly low precipitation but a clear shift towards more extreme heat. However, this shift is underestimated by the models. Analysing fire weather directly, we found that the chance has increased by at least 30 %, but due to the underestimation it could well be higher.
Andrew R. Schauer, Jordy Hendrikx, Karl W. Birkeland, and Cary J. Mock
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 757–774, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-757-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-757-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Our research links upper atmospheric circulation patterns to a destructive and difficult-to-predict type of snow avalanche in the western United States. At each of our study sites, we find unique circulation patterns that tend to occur at the beginning of the winter season during years with major avalanche activity. We also find specific patterns that occur frequently in the days leading to major avalanche events. This work will enable practitioners to better anticipate these challenging events.
Erich Peitzsch, Jordy Hendrikx, Daniel Stahle, Gregory Pederson, Karl Birkeland, and Daniel Fagre
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 533–557, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-533-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-533-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We sampled 647 trees from 12 avalanche paths to investigate large snow avalanches over the past 400 years in the northern Rocky Mountains, USA. Sizable avalanches occur approximately every 3 years across the region. Our results emphasize the importance of sample size, scale, and spatial extent when reconstructing avalanche occurrence across a region. This work can be used for infrastructure planning and avalanche forecasting operations.
Simon Horton, Moses Towell, and Pascal Haegeli
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 3551–3576, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-3551-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-3551-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We investigate patterns in how avalanche forecasters characterize snow avalanche hazard with avalanche problem types. Decision tree analysis was used to investigate both physical influences based on weather and on snowpack variables and operational practices. The results highlight challenges with developing decision aids based on previous hazard assessments.
Dan K. Thompson and Kimberly Morrison
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 3439–3454, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-3439-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-3439-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We describe critically low relative humidity and high wind speeds above which only documented wildfires were seen to occur and where no agricultural fires were documented in southern Canada. We then applied these thresholds to the much larger satellite record from 2002–2018 to quantify regional differences in both the rate of observed burning and the number of days with critical weather conditions to sustain a wildfire in this grassland and agricultural region.
Chuanguang Zhu, Wenhao Wu, Mahdi Motagh, Liya Zhang, Zongli Jiang, and Sichun Long
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 3399–3411, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-3399-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-3399-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We investigate the contemporary ground deformation along the RLHR-HZ using Sentinel-1 data and find that the RLHR-HZ runs through two main subsidence areas. A total length of 35 km of the RLSR-HZ is affected by the two subsidence basins. Considering the previous investigation coupled with information on human activities, we conclude that the subsidence is mainly caused by extraction of groundwater and underground mining.
Negar Ghahramani, Andrew Mitchell, Nahyan M. Rana, Scott McDougall, Stephen G. Evans, and W. Andy Take
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 3425–3438, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-3425-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-3425-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Tailings flows result from the breach of tailings dams. These flows contain waste products of the mineral processing operations and can travel substantial distances, causing significant loss of life, environmental damage, and economic costs. This paper establishes a new tailings-flow runout classification system, describes a new database of events that have been mapped in detail using the new system, and examines the applicability of a semi-physical area–volume relationship using the new data.
Tae-Young Kwak, Sang-Inn Woo, Choong-Ki Chung, and Joonyoung Kim
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 3343–3359, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-3343-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-3343-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, model tests were used to analyze the effects of rainfall intensity on the formation of the eroded zone and the occurrence of sinkholes due to groundwater infiltration through pipe defects. The model tests were conducted to simulate the actual site conditions considering the soil used around sewer pipe networks and the sewer pipe landfill standards. The groundwater level was applied to the model tests by setting three hydraulic heads based on heavy-rainfall characteristics.
Alessandro Gattuso, Francesco Italiano, Capasso Giorgio, Antonino D'Alessandro, Fausto Grassa, Antonino Fabio Pisciotta, and Davide Romano
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2020-369, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2020-369, 2020
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
Santa Barbara and Aragona areas are affected by mud volcanism with episodic hazardous paroxysm events. Two potentially hazardous paroxysm exposed surfaces of 0.12 km2 and 0.20 km2 respectively were elaborated with the aim of DSMs and with historical information due to the paroxysms occurred in the past. This paper, in the end, could be a useful tool for Civil Protection Authorities in order to take the appropriate risk mitigation measurements for the exposed people and for monitoring activities.
Erwan Le Roux, Guillaume Evin, Nicolas Eckert, Juliette Blanchet, and Samuel Morin
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2961–2977, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2961-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2961-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
To minimize the risk of structure collapse due to extreme snow loads, structure standards rely on 50-year return levels of ground snow load (GSL), i.e. levels exceeded once every 50 years on average, that do not account for climate change. We study GSL data in the French Alps massifs from 1959 and 2019 and find that these 50-year return levels are decreasing with time between 900 and 4800 m of altitude, but they still exceed return levels of structure standards for half of the massifs at 1800 m.
Bettina Richter, Alec van Herwijnen, Mathias W. Rotach, and Jürg Schweizer
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2873–2888, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2873-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2873-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We investigated the sensitivity of modeled snow instability to uncertainties in meteorological input, typically found in complex terrain. The formation of the weak layer was very robust due to the long dry period, indicated by a widespread avalanche problem. Once a weak layer has formed, precipitation mostly determined slab and weak layer properties and hence snow instability. When spatially assessing snow instability for avalanche forecasting, accurate precipitation patterns have to be known.
Francesca Di Giuseppe, Claudia Vitolo, Blazej Krzeminski, Christopher Barnard, Pedro Maciel, and Jesús San-Miguel
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2365–2378, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2365-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2365-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Forecasting of daily fire weather indices driven by the ECMWF ensemble prediction system is shown to have a good skill up to 10 d ahead in predicting flammable conditions in most regions of the world. The availability of these forecasts through the Copernicus Emergency Management Service can extend early warnings by up to 1–2 weeks, allowing for greater proactive coordination of resource-sharing and mobilization within and across countries.
Andrea Franco, Jasper Moernaut, Barbara Schneider-Muntau, Michael Strasser, and Bernhard Gems
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2255–2279, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2255-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2255-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
This study highlights the use of the software Flow-3D in reproducing landslide-generated impulse waves. Due to the available data and the possibility of comparing the results with other previous works, a numerical modelling investigation on the 1958 Lituya Bay tsunami event is proposed. It is noted that the rockslide impact into the waterbody has a key role in the wave initiation and thus its propagation. The concept used in this work can be applied to prevent such phenomena in future.
Frank Techel, Kurt Winkler, Matthias Walcher, Alec van Herwijnen, and Jürg Schweizer
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1941–1953, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1941-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1941-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Snow instability tests, like the extended column test (ECT), provide valuable information regarding point snow instability. A large data set of ECT – together with information on slope instability – was explored. The findings clearly show that combining information regarding propagation propensity and fracture initiation provided the best correlation with slope instability. A new four-class stability interpretation scheme is proposed for ECT results.
Silvan Leinss, Raphael Wicki, Sämi Holenstein, Simone Baffelli, and Yves Bühler
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1783–1803, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1783-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1783-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
To assess snow avalanche mapping with radar satellites in Switzerland, we compare 2 m resolution TerraSAR-X images, 10 m resolution Sentinel-1 images, and optical 1.5 m resolution SPOT-6 images. We found that radar satellites provide a valuable option to map at least larger avalanches, though avalanches are mapped only partially. By combining multiple orbits and polarizations from S1, we achieved mapping results of quality almost comparable to single high-resolution TerraSAR-X images.
Mercy N. Ndalila, Grant J. Williamson, Paul Fox-Hughes, Jason Sharples, and David M. J. S. Bowman
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1497–1511, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1497-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1497-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We analyse the evolution of a pyrocumulonimbus (pyroCb), or fire-induced thunderstorm, during the Forcett–Dunalley fire on 4 January 2013 and relate it to the prevailing fire weather and fire severity patterns. We show that the pyroCb reached an altitude of 15 km, was associated with elevated fire weather, and formed over a severely burned area. Additionally, we show that eastern Tasmania is prone to elevated fire weather which has implications for fire weather forecasting and fire management.
Robert D. Field
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1123–1147, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1123-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1123-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
This paper compares fire weather indices calculated from the NASA MERRA-2 reanlaysis to those calculated from a global network of weather stations, finding that, globally, biases in reanalysis fire weather are influenced firstly by temperature and relative humidity and, in certain regions, by precipitation biases. Fire weather forecasts using short-term NASA GEOS-5 weather forecasts are skillful 2 d ahead of time. This skill decreases more quickly with longer lead times at high latitudes.
Alireza Farahmand, E. Natasha Stavros, John T. Reager, Ali Behrangi, James T. Randerson, and Brad Quayle
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1097–1106, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1097-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1097-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Wildfires result in billions of dollars of losses each year. Most wildfire predictions have a 10 d lead-time. This study introduces a framework for a 1-month lead-time prediction of wildfires based on vapor pressure deficit and surface soil moisture in the US. The results show that the model can successfully predict burned area with relatively small margins of error. This is especially important for operational wildfire management such as national resource allocation.
Holt Hancock, Markus Eckerstorfer, Alexander Prokop, and Jordy Hendrikx
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 603–623, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-603-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-603-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
This work uses terrestrial laser scanning techniques to monitor and quantify changes to snow cornices near Longyearbyen, Svalbard, Norway, with sub-decimeter accuracy. Our findings illustrate how complex interactions between topography and meteorological conditions govern the growth, failure, and associated avalanche activity of the cornices in this location. These findings can help improve forecasting of snow-cornice-related hazards in this and other locations exposed to snow cornice hazards.
Arthur Depicker, Bernard De Baets, and Jan Marcel Baetens
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 363–376, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-363-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-363-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
In recent years, several valuable nature reserves in Belgium have been severely damaged by wildfires. In order to optimize risk management and prepare for a possibly increasing number of such events, the first wildfire ignition probability map is developed for Belgium, based on data that were obtained from the government and newspaper articles. We find that most ignitions occur in the provinces of Limburg and Antwerp and that most causes are of anthropogenic nature (such as military exercises).
Margherita Maggioni, Danilo Godone, Barbara Frigo, and Michele Freppaz
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 2667–2676, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-2667-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-2667-2019, 2019
Javier Elío, Giorgia Cinelli, Peter Bossew, José Luis Gutiérrez-Villanueva, Tore Tollefsen, Marc De Cort, Alessio Nogarotto, and Roberto Braga
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 2451–2464, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-2451-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-2451-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
The first version of the Pan-European Indoor Radon Map is presented in this article. The map has been developed using summary statistics estimated from 1.2 million samples. It represents an average radon concentration per 10 km x 10 km grid cell under the assumption that there are dwellings in the grid cell. It is a major contribution to the understanding of the exposure to ionizing radiation of Europeans and a first step towards a European radon exposure and, in the future, radon dose map.
Michele Perrotti, Piernicola Lollino, Nunzio Luciano Fazio, and Mario Parise
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 2079–2095, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-2079-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-2079-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Based on stability charts proposed by Perrotti et al. (2018), preliminary assessment of stability/instability of underground quarries in soft carbonate rocks is discussed with reference to six case studies of underground artificial cavities, including three affected by sinkhole failures in the past and three in stable conditions at present. When underground quarries are suitably surveyed and mapped, a quantitative assessment of the stability conditions is possible.
Reto Sterchi, Pascal Haegeli, and Patrick Mair
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 2011–2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-2011-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-2011-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Mechanized skiing operations use an established process to select skiing terrain with a low risk level. However, the relationship between appropriate skiing terrain and avalanche conditions has only received limited research attention. Our study examines this relationship numerically for the first time and shows the effects of avalanche hazard, previous skiing, and previous acceptability on different types of skiing terrain and offers the foundation to develop evidence-based decision tools.
Marco A. Perez-Flores, Luis E. Ochoa-Tinajero, and Almendra Villela y Mendoza
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 1779–1787, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1779-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1779-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
In this paper we present an EM geophysics method designed for shallow purposes for determining the 3-D geometry of a sinkhole. In this case we are applying the technique for the Chac-Mool sinkhole in the Yucatán Peninsula. Thanks to scuba divers we have a broad path they followed along the subterranean rivers. Our 3-D model can be correlated with those scuba diver paths. We also found hidden rivers that pass very close to the surface (less than 10 m) making these areas susceptible to collapse.
Sílvia A. Nunes, Carlos C. DaCamara, Kamil F. Turkman, Teresa J. Calado, Ricardo M. Trigo, and Maria A. A. Turkman
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 1459–1470, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1459-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1459-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Portugal is recurrently affected by large wildfire events. We present a statistical model to estimate the probability that the summer burned area exceeds a given threshold. The model allows making outlooks of wildfire potential with up to 1 month in advance of the fire season. When applied to the 39-year period 1980-2018, only 1 severe (one weak) year is not anticipated as potentially severe (weak). The model will assist the fire community when planning prevention and combating fire events.
Anne Ganteaume and Renaud Barbero
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 1055–1066, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1055-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1055-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Long-term georeferenced time series showed spatiotemporal variations in large fires (LF ≥ 100 ha) throughout the French Mediterranean with 21 % of the total LF burned area occurring on surface previously burned. The region was impacted up to five to six times by recurrent LFs, the east experiencing fewer but larger LFs despite fire weather conditions decreasing eastwards. The efficiency of fire management has improved but LF outbreaks during extreme weather conditions remain a major concern.
Renaud Barbero, Thomas Curt, Anne Ganteaume, Eric Maillé, Marielle Jappiot, and Adeline Bellet
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 441–454, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-441-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-441-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
We developed statistical models simulating the probability of large wildfires in France from the climate forcing. The models were able to reproduce both spatial and temporal variability in large wildfires across different environmental regions. The models have wide applications, including improving our understanding of the drivers of large wildfires over the historical period and providing a basis on which to estimate future changes to large wildfires from climate projections.
Reto Sterchi and Pascal Haegeli
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 269–285, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-269-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-269-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
We used a revealed preference approach and identified patterns in risk management decisions of mechanized skiing operations. Our results show that terrain choices of experienced guides depend on a much broader set of factors beyond just the avalanche hazard, including skiing experience or accessibility due to weather. The identified high-resolution ski run hierarchies provide new opportunities for examining professional avalanche risk management practices and developing meaningful decision aids.
Joana Gouveia Freire and Carlos Castro DaCamara
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 169–179, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-169-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-169-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Cellular automata are useful tools to simulate wildfire propagation. We design a cellular automaton to simulate a severe wildfire that took place in Portugal in 2012 and resulted in almost 25 000 ha burned. The explosive stage is adequately modeled when refining the role played by the wind in fire spreading. Results show a probability of ignition out of the limits of the observed scar, information that may help choose where to allocate resources for firefighting.
Yves Bühler, Daniel von Rickenbach, Andreas Stoffel, Stefan Margreth, Lukas Stoffel, and Marc Christen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 3235–3251, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-3235-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-3235-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Coping with avalanche hazard has a long tradition in alpine countries. Hazard mapping has proven to be one of the most effective methods. In this paper we develop a new approach to automatically delineate avalanche release areas and connect them to state-of-the-art numerical avalanche simulations. This enables computer-based hazard indication mapping over large areas such as entire countries. This is of particular interest where hazard maps do not yet exist, such as in developing countries.
Andrin Caviezel and Werner Gerber
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 3145–3151, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-3145-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-3145-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Anticipating the flight path of a bouncing object holds fascination for playing children and scientists alike. While the path of a ball can be judged easily, the erratic rebound behavior of complexly shaped forms are intriguing. Here, we focus on the timescales and rotation changes during real rock–ground impacts while traveling down a slope. Specialized sensors inside the rock track those changes and reveal contact times in the millisecond range defining the overall flight path behavior.
Nima Khakzad
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 3153–3166, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-3153-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-3153-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
The growing oil sands operations in Canada's wildlands on the one hand and an anticipated increase in the frequency of wildfires, due to global warming, on the other hand can jeopardize the safety and integrity of oil sands facilities. The present study aims to develop a methodology, based on the Canadian Wildland Fire Information System and quantitative risk assessment techniques, for assessing the impact of wildfires on wildland–industrial interfaces with an emphasis on oil sands facilities.
Frank Techel, Christoph Mitterer, Elisabetta Ceaglio, Cécile Coléou, Samuel Morin, Francesca Rastelli, and Ross S. Purves
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 2697–2716, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-2697-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-2697-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
In 1993, the European Avalanche Warning Services agreed upon a common danger scale to describe the regional avalanche hazard: the European Avalanche Danger Scale. Using published avalanche forecasts, we explored whether forecasters use the scale consistently. We noted differences in the use of the danger levels, some of which could be linked to the size of the regions a regional danger level is issued for. We recommend further harmonizing the avalanche forecast products in the Alps.
Guillaume Evin, Thomas Curt, and Nicolas Eckert
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 2641–2651, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-2641-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-2641-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Very large wildfires have high human, economic, and ecological impacts. Preventing such events is a major objective of the new fire policy set up in France in 1994, which is oriented towards fast and massive fire suppression. This study investigates the effect of this policy on the largest fires. We estimate the burned area corresponding to fires that occur every 5, 20, and 50 years on average (so-called return periods) in southern France.
Rune V. Engeset, Gerit Pfuhl, Markus Landrø, Andrea Mannberg, and Audun Hetland
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 2537–2559, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-2537-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-2537-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
The Norwegian Avalanche Warning Service was launched in 2013 to stop the increase in avalanche fatalities. We studied how efficiently warnings communicate the hazard on Varsom.no: which risk factors are difficult to assess and manage? Which elements in the warning are (not) important? Which elements are easily misunderstood? Which information/features are missing/ignored by users? We developed a communication effectiveness score for testing this using an online survey.
Alessandro La Rosa, Carolina Pagli, Giancarlo Molli, Francesco Casu, Claudio De Luca, Amerino Pieroni, and Giacomo D'Amato Avanzi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 2355–2366, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-2355-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-2355-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
We use a multi-disciplinary dataset to show that the Prà di Lama sinkhole was created through several episodic events of unrest. We suggest that fluid circulation along an active fault zone, accompanied by localized seismic creep, control the growth of the Prà di Lama deep-sited sinkhole. Conversely, a connection between events of unrest and the largest earthquakes in northern Tuscany is not identified. This paper provides new insights into the evolution of sinkholes in active fault zones.
Sang-Soo Jeon, Young-Kon Park, and Ki-Young Eum
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 2261–2271, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-2261-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-2261-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
The number of occurrences of ground subsidence induced by a leakage of aged pipelines for water and sewage in urban areas resulting in various sizes of cavity near the urban railway in South Korea has increased and it may cause roadbed settlement to exceed the allowable value. In this study, a three-dimensional numerical analysis is carried out to estimate roadbed stability and its risk level associated with various groundwater levels and sizes of cavities in simulated ground conditions.
Dominique Cancellieri, Valérie Leroy-Cancellieri, Xavier Silvani, and Frédéric Morandini
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 1957–1968, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-1957-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-1957-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
The technology presented in this paper is based on a completely new approach wherein the development of a new field mass loss device combined with recent progress in the understanding of its behaviour achieves never before recorded data. It is the first time that the kinetics of decomposition of biomass have been validated under real wildland fire conditions, thus ensuring reliable characterisation of source terms.
Reinhard Fromm, Sonja Baumgärtner, Georg Leitinger, Erich Tasser, and Peter Höller
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 1891–1903, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-1891-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-1891-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Snow gliding is a key factor for snow glide avalanche formation and soil erosion. This study considers atmospheric and snow variables, vegetation characteristics, and soil properties, and determines their relevance for snow gliding. The soil moisture, the soil temperature, the liquid water content of snow, the phytomass of mosses, and the friction coefficient have major influence.
However, further investigations may be focused on the freezing and melting processes in the uppermost soil layers.
Chun Zhu, Dongsheng Wang, Xing Xia, Zhigang Tao, Manchao He, and Chen Cao
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 1811–1823, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-1811-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-1811-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Gravel cushions are widely used for rockfall prevention in open-pit mines to absorb energy; the energy-consumption and buffer mechanism of different thicknesses and particle sizes of gravel cushions under the impact effects are studied. A series of laboratory tests for different cushions are conducted, combining the blocks' volume and drop height. It provides a theoretical and practical basis for the wide application of cushion design to control rockfall.
Marj Tonini, Joana Parente, and Mário G. Pereira
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 1647–1664, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-1647-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-1647-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
We assessed the evolution of the rural–urban interface (RUI) in Portugal based on land cover changes. A significant increase in artificial surfaces was registered near the main metropolitan communities, whilst the abandonment of agricultural land near the inland urban areas led to an increase in uncultivated semi-natural areas. Consequently, RUI increased more than two-thirds and burnt areas within the RUI doubled, emphasizing the importance of RUI monitoring for land and fire managers.
Wasin Chaivaranont, Jason P. Evans, Yi Y. Liu, and Jason J. Sharples
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 1535–1554, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-1535-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-1535-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
This study explore the feasibility of using a combination of recent and traditional satellite products to estimate the grassland fire fuel availability across space and time over Australia. We found a significant relationship between both recent and traditional satellite products and observed grassland fuel availability and develop an estimation model. We hope our estimation model will provide a more balanced alternative to the currently available grass fuel availability estimation models.
Cited articles
ASCM – American College of Sports Medicine: Prevention of Thermal Injuries During Distance Running – Position stand, Med. Sci. Sport. Exerc., 16, ix–xiv, 1984.
Bevacqua, E., Maraun, D., Hobæk Haff, I., Widmann, M., and Vrac, M.: Multivariate statistical modelling of compound events via pair-copula constructions: analysis of floods in Ravenna (Italy), Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2701–2723, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-2701-2017, 2017.
Bevacqua, E., Maraun, D., Vousdoukas, M. I., Voukouvalas, E., Vrac, M., Mentaschi, L., and Widmann, M.:
Higher probability of compound flooding from precipitation and storm surge in Europe under anthropogenic climate change,
Science Advances,
5, 9, eaaw5531, https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aaw5531, 2019.
Bevacqua, E., Vousdoukas, M. I., Shepherd, T. G., and Vrac, M.: Brief communication: The role of using precipitation or river discharge data when assessing global coastal compound flooding, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1765–1782, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1765-2020, 2020a.
Bevacqua, E., Vousdoukas, M. I., Zappa, G., Hodges, K., Shepherd, T. G., Maraun, D., Mentaschi, L., and Feyen, L.: More meteorological events that drive compound coastal flooding are projected under climate change, Commun. Earth Environ., 1, 47, https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-020-00044-z, 2020b.
Bevacqua, E., Zappa, G., and Shepherd, T. G.: Shorter cyclone clusters modulate changes in European wintertime precipitation extremes,
Environ. Res. Lett., 15, 124005, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abbde7, 2020c.
Brando, P. M., Balch, J. K., Nepstad, D. C., Morton, D. C., Putz, F. E., Coe, M. T., Silvério, D., Macedo, M. N., Davidson, E. A., Nóbrega, C. C., Alencar, A., and Soares-Filho, B. S.:
Abrupt increases in Amazonian tree mortality due to drought-fire interactions,
P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA,
111, 6347–6352, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1305499111, 2014.
Dale, M. and Fortin, M.:
Spatial Autocorrelation and Statistical Tests: Some Solutions,
J. Agr. Biol. Envir. St.,
14, 188–206, 2009.
Dee, D. P., Uppala, S. M., Simmons, A. J., Berrisford, P., Poli, P., Kobayashi, S., Andrae, U., Balmaseda, M. A., Balsamo, G., Bauer, P., Bechtold, P., Beljaars, A. C. M., van de Berg, L., Bidlot, J., Bormann, N., Delsol, C., Dragani, R., Fuentes, M., Geer, A. J., Haimberger, L., Healy, S. B., Hersbach, H., Hólm, E. V., Isaksen, L., Kållberg, P., Köhler, M., Matricardi, M., McNally, A. P., Monge-Sanz, B. M., Morcrette, J.-J., Park, B.-K., Peubey, C., de Rosnay, P., Tavolato, C., Thépaut, J.-N., and Vitart, F.:
The ERA-Interim reanalysis: configuration and performance of the data assimilation system,
Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc.,
137, 553–597, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.828, 2011.
Durante, F. and Sempi, C.: Principles of Copula Theory, 1st Edn., Chapman and Hall/CRC, https://doi.org/10.1201/b18674, 2015.
ECMWF: Public Datasets, available at: https://apps.ecmwf.int/datasets/, last access: June 2021.
François, B., Vrac, M., Cannon, A. J., Robin, Y., and Allard, D.: Multivariate bias corrections of climate simulations: which benefits for which losses?, Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 537–562, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-537-2020, 2020.
Hofert, M., Kojadinovic, I., Maechler, M., and Yan, J.:
copula: Multivariate Dependence with Copulas, R package version 0.999-19.1,
available at: https://CRAN.R-project.org/package=copula (last access: 19 November 2020), 2018.
Hollander, M., Wolfe, D. A., and Chicken, E.: Nonparametric Statistical Methods, 3rd Edn., John Wiley & Sons, Hoboken, New Jersey, 2014.
Manning, C., Widmann, M., Bevacqua, E., Van Loon, A. F., Maraun, D., and Vrac, M.:
Soil moisture drought in Europe: a compound event of precipitation and potential evapotranspiration on multiple timescales,
J. Hydrometeorol.,
19, 1255–1271, https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-18-0017.1, 2018.
Maraun, D.: Bias Correcting Climate Change Simulations – a Critical Review,
Current Climate Change Reports, 2, 211–220, https://doi.org/10.1007/s40641-016-0050-x, 2016.
Maraun, D., Shepherd, T. G., Widmann, M., Zappa, G., Walton, D., Gutiérrez, J. M., Hagemann, S., Richter, I., Soares, P. M. M., Hall, A., and Mearns, L. O.:
Towards process-informed bias correction of climate change simulations,
Nat. Clim. Change,
7, 764–773, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3418, 2017.
McCutchan, M. H. and Main, W. A.: The relationship between mean monthly fire potential indices and monthly fire severity, in: Proceedings of the 10th Conference on Fire and Forest Meteorology, edited by: MacIver, D. C., Auld, H., and Whitewood, R., Forestry Canada, Ottawa, Ontario, Canada, 430–435, 1989.
Nelsen, R. B.: An Introduction to Copulas, in: Springer Series in Statistics, 2nd Edn., XIV, 272, Springer, New York, NY, https://doi.org/10.1007/0-387-28678-0, 2006.
R Core Team: R: A language and environment for statistical computing,
R Foundation for Statistical Computing, Vienna, Austria,
available at: https://www.R-project.org/ (last access: 19 November 2020), 2019.
Remillard, B. and Plante, J.-F.:
TwoCop: Nonparametric test of equality between two copulas,
R package version 1.0,
available at: https://CRAN.R-project.org/package=TwoCop (last access: 19 November 2020), 2012.
Roads, J. P., Tripp, P., Juang, H., Wang, J., Chen, S., and Fujioka, F.: ECPC/NCEP March 2008 seasonal fire danger forecasts, in: Experimental Long-Lead Forecasts Bulletin, 17, National Centers for Environmental Prediction, Camp Springs, Maryland, 7 pp., 2008.
Salvadori, G. and De Michele, C.:
On the Use of Copulas in Hydrology: Theory and Practice,
J. Hydrol. Eng.,
12, 369–380, https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)1084-0699(2007)12:4(369), 2007.
Salvadori, G., De Michele, C., Kottegoda, N. T., and Rosso, R.:
Extreme in nature: An approach using copulas,
Springer, Dordrecht, 2007.
Schneider, G., Chicken, E., and Becvarik, R.:
NSM3: Functions and Datasets to Accompany Hollander, Wolfe, and Chicken – Nonparametric Statistical Methods, third edn.,
R package version 1.15,
available at: https://CRAN.R-project.org/package=NSM3 (last access: 19 November 2020), 2020.
Scholz, F. and Zhu, A.:
kSamples: K-Sample Rank Tests and their Combinations,
R package version 1.2-9,
available at: https://CRAN.R-project.org/package=kSamples (last access: 19 November 2020), 2019.
Sklar, A.: Fonctions de Répartition à n Dimensions et Leurs Marges,
Publications de l'Institut Statistique de l'Université de Paris, Paris, 8, 229–231, 1959.
Vrac, M.: Multivariate bias adjustment of high-dimensional climate simulations: the Rank Resampling for Distributions and Dependences (R2D2) bias correction, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3175–3196, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-3175-2018, 2018.
WCRP: Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5), available at: https://esgf-node.llnl.gov/projects/cmip5, last access: June 2021.
Zscheischler, J., Fischer, E. M., and Lange, S.: The effect of univariate bias adjustment on multivariate hazard estimates, Earth Syst. Dynam., 10, 31–43, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-31-2019, 2019.
Zscheischler, J., Martius, O., Westra, S., Bevacqua, E., R., C., Horton, R. M., van den Hurk, B., AghaKouchak, A., Jézéquel, A., Mahecha, M. D., Maraun, D., Ramos, A. M., Ridder, N., Thiery, W., and Vignotto, E.:
A typology of compound weather and climate events,
Nature Reviews Earth & Environment,
1, 333–347, https://doi.org/10.1038/s43017-020-0060-z, 2020.
Zscheischler, J., Naveau, P., Martius, O., Engelke, S., and Raible, C. C.: Evaluating the dependence structure of compound precipitation and wind speed extremes, Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 1–16, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1-2021, 2021.
Short summary
Climate hazards may be caused by events which have multiple drivers. Here we present a method to break down climate model biases in hazard indicators down to the bias caused by each driving variable. Using simplified fire and heat stress indicators driven by temperature and relative humidity as examples, we show how multivariate indicators may have complex biases and that the relationship between driving variables is a source of bias that must be considered in climate model bias corrections.
Climate hazards may be caused by events which have multiple drivers. Here we present a method to...
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint