Articles | Volume 20, issue 12
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-3485-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-3485-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
17 Dec 2020
Research article |
| 17 Dec 2020
| 17 Dec 2020
Dynamic maps of human exposure to floods based on mobile phone data
Matteo Balistrocchi
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Department of Engineering Enzo Ferrari, University of Modena and
Reggio Emilia, Modena (MO), 41125, Italy
Rodolfo Metulini
Department of Economics and Statistics, University of Salerno,
Fisciano (SA), 84084, Italy
Maurizio Carpita
Department of Economics and Management, University of Brescia, Brescia
(BS), 25122, Italy
Roberto Ranzi
Department of Civil, Environmental, Architectural Engineering and
Mathematics, University of Brescia, Brescia (BS), 25123, Italy
Related authors
No articles found.
Roberto Ranzi, Paolo Colosio, and Giorgio Galeati
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 2555–2578, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2555-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2555-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We studied temporal trends and variability of snow depth and snow water equivalent (SWE) in six regions of the Italian Alps. We applied different statistical analyses to a dataset of homogeneous and continuous measurements of snow depth and SWE, temporally spanning from 1967 to 2020, and discussed the results with meteo-climatic data. Our results quantify the decrease of SWE in the study area, confirming the impacts of climate modifications on the cryosphere in the Alps.
Paolo Colosio, Marco Tedesco, Roberto Ranzi, and Xavier Fettweis
The Cryosphere, 15, 2623–2646, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-2623-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-2623-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We use a new satellite dataset to study the spatiotemporal evolution of surface melting over Greenland at an enhanced resolution of 3.125 km. Using meteorological data and the MAR model, we observe that a dynamic algorithm can best detect surface melting. We found that the melting season is elongating, the melt extent is increasing and that high-resolution data better describe the spatiotemporal evolution of the melting season, which is crucial to improve estimates of sea level rise.
Alice Crespi, Michele Brunetti, Maurizio Maugeri, Roberto Ranzi, and Massimo Tomirotti
Adv. Sci. Res., 15, 173–181, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-15-173-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-15-173-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
The gridded dataset of 1845–2016 monthly precipitation series over the upper Adda river basin is presented. It allows to study the evolution of the precipitation regime over the region and to reconstruct extreme past events. The areal 1845–2016 annual precipitation series over the basin is in overall agreement with annual runoff. While the precipitation series shows no significant trend, a significant decrease is pointed out for runoff, probably driven by both natural and anthropic causes.
Related subject area
Hydrological Hazards
Compound droughts under climate change in Switzerland
Brief communication: SWM – stochastic weather model for precipitation-related hazard assessments using ERA5-Land data
Text mining uncovers the unique dynamics of socio-economic impacts of the 2018–2022 multi-year drought in Germany
The value of multi-source data for improved flood damage modelling with explicit input data uncertainty treatment: INSYDE 2.0
Limited effect of the confluence angle and tributary gradient on Alpine confluence morphodynamics under intense sediment loads
Does a convection-permitting regional climate model bring new perspectives on the projection of Mediterranean floods?
Added value of seasonal hindcasts to create UK hydrological drought storylines
Flash flood detection via copula-based intensity–duration–frequency curves: evidence from Jamaica
Seasonal forecasting of local-scale soil moisture droughts with Global BROOK90: a case study of the European drought of 2018
How to mitigate flood events similar to the 1979 catastrophic floods in the lower Tagus
Probabilistic Flood Inundation Mapping through Copula Bayesian Multi-Modelling of Precipitation Products
Assessing LISFLOOD-FP with the next-generation digital elevation model FABDEM using household survey and remote sensing data in the Central Highlands of Vietnam
CRHyME (Climatic Rainfall Hydrogeological Modelling Experiment): a new model for geo-hydrological hazard assessment at the basin scale
Water depth estimate and flood extent enhancement for satellite-based inundation maps
Current and future rainfall-driven flood risk from hurricanes in Puerto Rico under 1.5 and 2 °C climate change
Using integrated hydrological–hydraulic modelling and global data sources to analyse the February 2023 floods in the Umbeluzi Catchment (Mozambique)
Model based assessment of climate change impact on inland flood risk in coastal areas caused by compounding storm tide and precipitation events
Impact-based flood forecasting in the Greater Horn of Africa
Flood Occurrence and Impact Models for Socioeconomic Applications over Canada and the United States
A downward counterfactual analysis of flash floods in Germany
Hyper-resolution flood hazard mapping at the national scale
Brief communication: A first hydrological investigation of extreme August 2023 floods in Slovenia, Europe
Multivariate regression trees as an “explainable machine learning” approach to explore relationships between hydroclimatic characteristics and agricultural and hydrological drought severity: case of study Cesar River basin
Review article: Towards improved drought prediction in the Mediterranean region – modeling approaches and future directions
Assessing typhoon-induced compound flood drivers: a case study in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam
Assessing the ability of a new seamless short-range ensemble rainfall product to anticipate flash floods in the French Mediterranean area
Sentinel-1-based analysis of the severe flood over Pakistan 2022
Sensitivity analysis of erosion on the landward slope of an earthen flood defense located in southern France submitted to wave overtopping
Better prepared but less resilient: the paradoxical impact of frequent flood experience on adaptive behavior and resilience
Assessing the spatial spread–skill of ensemble flood maps with remote-sensing observations
Hydrometeorological controls and social response for the 22 October 2019 catastrophic flash flood in Catalonia, north-eastern Spain
An integrated modeling approach to evaluate the impacts of nature-based solutions of flood mitigation across a small watershed in the southeast United States
Quantifying hazards resilience by modeling infrastructure recovery as a resource constrained project scheduling problem
Indicator-to-impact links to help improve agricultural drought preparedness in Thailand
An improved dynamic bidirectional coupled hydrologic-hydrodynamic model for efficient flood inundation prediction
The potential of open-access data for flood estimations: uncovering inundation hotspots in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam, through a normalized flood severity index
Analyzing the informative value of alternative hazard indicators for monitoring drought hazard for human water supply and river ecosystems at the global scale
A methodological framework for the evaluation of short-range flash-flood hydrometeorological forecasts at the event scale
Hydrological drought forecasting under a changing environment in the Luanhe River basin
A multi-disciplinary analysis of the exceptional flood event of July 2021 in central Europe – Part 2: Historical context and relation to climate change
Brief communication: The potential use of low-cost acoustic sensors to detect rainfall for short-term urban flood warnings
Brief communication: On the extremeness of the July 2021 precipitation event in western Germany
A climate-conditioned catastrophe risk model for UK flooding
A globally applicable framework for compound flood hazard modeling
Transferability of data-driven models to predict urban pluvial flood water depth in Berlin, Germany
Brief communication: Inclusiveness in designing an early warning system for flood resilience
Evolution of multivariate drought hazard, vulnerability and risk in India under climate change
A multi-disciplinary analysis of the exceptional flood event of July 2021 in central Europe – Part 1: Event description and analysis
Bare-earth DEM generation from ArcticDEM and its use in flood simulation
Comparison of estimated flood exposure and consequences generated by different event-based inland flood inundation maps
Christoph Nathanael von Matt, Regula Muelchi, Lukas Gudmundsson, and Olivia Martius
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1975–2001, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1975-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1975-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The simultaneous occurrence of meteorological (precipitation), agricultural (soil moisture), and hydrological (streamflow) drought can lead to augmented impacts. By analysing drought indices derived from the newest climate scenarios for Switzerland (CH2018, Hydro-CH2018), we show that with climate change the concurrence of all drought types will increase in all studied regions of Switzerland. Our results stress the benefits of and need for both mitigation and adaptation measures at early stages.
Melody Gwyneth Whitehead and Mark Stephen Bebbington
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1929–1935, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1929-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1929-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Precipitation-driven hazards including floods, landslides, and lahars can be catastrophic and difficult to forecast due to high uncertainty around future weather patterns. This work presents a stochastic weather model that produces statistically similar (realistic) rainfall over long time periods at minimal computational cost. These data provide much-needed inputs for hazard simulations to support long-term, time and spatially varying risk assessments.
Jan Sodoge, Christian Kuhlicke, Miguel D. Mahecha, and Mariana Madruga de Brito
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1757–1777, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1757-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1757-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We delved into the socio-economic impacts of the 2018–2022 drought in Germany. We derived a dataset covering the impacts of droughts in Germany between 2000 and 2022 on sectors such as agriculture and forestry based on newspaper articles. Notably, our study illustrated that the longer drought had a wider reach and more varied effects. We show that dealing with longer droughts requires different plans compared to shorter ones, and it is crucial to be ready for the challenges they bring.
Mario Di Bacco, Daniela Molinari, and Anna Rita Scorzini
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1681–1696, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1681-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1681-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
INSYDE 2.0 is a tool for modelling flood damage to residential buildings. By incorporating ultra-detailed survey and desk-based data, it improves the reliability and informativeness of damage assessments while addressing input data uncertainties.
Théo St. Pierre Ostrander, Thomé Kraus, Bruno Mazzorana, Johannes Holzner, Andrea Andreoli, Francesco Comiti, and Bernhard Gems
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1607–1634, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1607-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1607-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Mountain river confluences are hazardous during localized flooding events. A physical model was used to determine the dominant controls over mountain confluences. Contrary to lowland confluences, in mountain regions, the channel discharges and (to a lesser degree) the tributary sediment concentration control morphological patterns. Applying conclusions drawn from lowland confluences could misrepresent depositional and erosional patterns and the related flood hazard at mountain river confluences.
Nils Poncet, Philippe Lucas-Picher, Yves Tramblay, Guillaume Thirel, Humberto Vergara, Jonathan Gourley, and Antoinette Alias
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1163–1183, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1163-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1163-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
High-resolution convection-permitting climate models (CPMs) are now available to better simulate rainstorm events leading to flash floods. In this study, two hydrological models are compared to simulate floods in a Mediterranean basin, showing a better ability of the CPM to reproduce flood peaks compared to coarser-resolution climate models. Future projections are also different, with a projected increase for the most severe floods and a potential decrease for the most frequent events.
Wilson C. H. Chan, Nigel W. Arnell, Geoff Darch, Katie Facer-Childs, Theodore G. Shepherd, and Maliko Tanguy
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1065–1078, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1065-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1065-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The most recent drought in the UK was declared in summer 2022. We pooled a large sample of plausible winters from seasonal hindcasts and grouped them into four clusters based on their atmospheric circulation configurations. Drought storylines representative of what the drought could have looked like if winter 2022/23 resembled each winter circulation storyline were created to explore counterfactuals of how bad the 2022 drought could have been over winter 2022/23 and beyond.
Dino Collalti, Nekeisha Spencer, and Eric Strobl
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 873–890, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-873-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-873-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The risk of extreme rainfall events causing floods is likely increasing with climate change. Flash floods, which follow immediately after extreme rainfall, are particularly difficult to forecast and assess. We develop a decision rule for flash flood classification with data on all incidents between 2001 and 2018 in Jamaica with the statistical copula method. This decision rule tells us for any rainfall event of a certain duration how intense it has to be to likely trigger a flash flood.
Ivan Vorobevskii, Thi Thanh Luong, and Rico Kronenberg
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 681–697, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-681-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-681-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study presents a new version of a framework which allows us to model water balance components at any site on a local scale. Compared with the first version, the second incorporates new datasets used to set up and force the model. In particular, we highlight the ability of the framework to provide seasonal forecasts. This gives potential stakeholders (farmers, foresters, policymakers, etc.) the possibility to forecast, for example, soil moisture drought and thus apply the necessary measures.
Diego Fernández-Nóvoa, Alexandre M. Ramos, José González-Cao, Orlando García-Feal, Cristina Catita, Moncho Gómez-Gesteira, and Ricardo M. Trigo
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 609–630, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-609-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-609-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The present study focuses on an in-depth analysis of floods in the lower section of the Tagus River from a hydrodynamic perspective by means of the Iber+ numerical model and on the development of dam operating strategies to mitigate flood episodes using the exceptional floods of February 1979 as a benchmark. The results corroborate the model's capability to evaluate floods in the study area and confirm the effectiveness of the proposed strategies to reduce flood impact in the lower Tagus valley.
Francisco Javier Gomez, Keighobad Jafarzadegan, Hamed Moftakhari, and Hamid Moradkhani
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-26, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-26, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
This study utilizes the Global Copula Bayesian Model Averaging technique for accurate and reliable flood modeling, especially in coastal regions. By integrating multiple precipitation datasets within this framework, we can effectively address sources of error in each dataset, leading to the generation of probabilistic flood maps. The creation of these probabilistic maps is essential for disaster preparedness and mitigation in densely populated areas susceptible to extreme weather events.
Laurence Hawker, Jeffrey Neal, James Savage, Thomas Kirkpatrick, Rachel Lord, Yanos Zylberberg, Andre Groeger, Truong Dang Thuy, Sean Fox, Felix Agyemang, and Pham Khanh Nam
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 539–566, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-539-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-539-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We present a global flood model built using a new terrain data set and evaluated in the Central Highlands of Vietnam.
Andrea Abbate, Leonardo Mancusi, Francesco Apadula, Antonella Frigerio, Monica Papini, and Laura Longoni
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 501–537, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-501-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-501-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
CRHyME (Climatic Rainfall Hydrogeological Modelling Experiment) is a new physically based and spatially distributed rainfall-runoff model. The main novelties consist of reproducing rainfall-induced geo-hydrological hazards such as shallow landslide, debris flow and watershed erosion through a multi-hazard approach. CRHyME was written in Python, works at a high spatial and temporal resolution, and is a tool suitable for quantifying extreme rainfall consequences at the basin scale.
Andrea Betterle and Peter Salamon
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-22, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-22, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
The study proposes a new framework, named FLEXTH, to estimate flood water depths and improve satellite-based flood monitoring using topographical data. FLEXTH aims to reduce the impact of floods and is readily available as a computer code, offering a practical and scalable solution for estimating flood depths quickly and systematically over large areas. The methodology can reduce the impacts of floods and enhance emergency response efforts, particularly where resources are limited.
Leanne Archer, Jeffrey Neal, Paul Bates, Emily Vosper, Dereka Carroll, Jeison Sosa, and Daniel Mitchell
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 375–396, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-375-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-375-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We model hurricane-rainfall-driven flooding to assess how the number of people exposed to flooding changes in Puerto Rico under the 1.5 and 2 °C Paris Agreement goals. Our analysis suggests 8 %–10 % of the population is currently exposed to flooding on average every 5 years, increasing by 2 %–15 % and 1 %–20 % at 1.5 and 2 °C. This has implications for adaptation to more extreme flooding in Puerto Rico and demonstrates that 1.5 °C climate change carries a significant increase in risk.
Luis Cea, Manuel Álvarez, and Jerónimo Puertas
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 225–243, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-225-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-225-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Mozambique is highly exposed to the impact of floods. To reduce flood damage, it is necessary to develop mitigation measures. Hydrological software is a very useful tool for that purpose, since it allows for a precise quantification of flood hazard in different scenarios. We present a methodology to quantify flood hazard in data-scarce regions, using freely available data and software, and we show its potential by analysing the flood event that took place in the Umbeluzi Basin in February 2023.
Helge Bormann, Jenny Kebschull, Lidia Gaslikova, and Ralf Weisse
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-29, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-29, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Inland flooding is threatening coastal lowlands. If rainfall and storm surges are coinciding, the risk of inland flooding increases. We examine how such compound events are influenced by climate change. Our model based scenario analysis shows that climate change induces an increasing frequency and intensity of compounding precipitation and storm tide events along the North Sea coast. Overload of inland drainage systems will also increase if no timely adaptation measures are taken.
Lorenzo Alfieri, Andrea Libertino, Lorenzo Campo, Francesco Dottori, Simone Gabellani, Tatiana Ghizzoni, Alessandro Masoero, Lauro Rossi, Roberto Rudari, Nicola Testa, Eva Trasforini, Ahmed Amdihun, Jully Ouma, Luca Rossi, Yves Tramblay, Huan Wu, and Marco Massabò
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 199–224, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-199-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-199-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This work describes Flood-PROOFS East Africa, an impact-based flood forecasting system for the Greater Horn of Africa. It is based on hydrological simulations, inundation mapping, and estimation of population and assets exposed to upcoming river floods. The system supports duty officers in African institutions in the daily monitoring of hydro-meteorological disasters. A first evaluation shows the system performance for the catastrophic floods in the Nile River basin in summer 2020.
Manuel Grenier, Mathieu Boudreault, David A. Carozza, Jérémie Boudreault, and Sébastien Raymond
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.22541/essoar.167751627.70583046/v2, https://doi.org/10.22541/essoar.167751627.70583046/v2, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Modelling floods at the street-level for large countries like Canada and the United States is difficult and very costly. However, many applications do not necessarily require that level of details. As a result, we present a flood modelling framework built with artificial intelligence for socioeconomic studies like trend and scenarios analyses. We find for example that an increase of 10 % in average precipitation yields an increase of population displaced of 18 % in Canada and 14 % in the U.S.
Paul Voit and Maik Heistermann
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-224, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-224, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
To identify the flash flood potential in Germany, we shifted the most extreme rainfall events from the last 22 years systematically across Germany and simulated the consequent run off reaction.
Our results show, that almost all areas in Germany have not seen the worst-case scenario of flood peaks within the last 22 years. With a slight spatial change of historical rainfall events, flood peaks by the factor 2 or more would be achieved for most areas. The results can aid disaster risk management.
Günter Blöschl, Andreas Buttinger-Kreuzhuber, Daniel Cornel, Julia Eisl, Michael Hofer, Markus Hollaus, Zsolt Horváth, Jürgen Komma, Artem Konev, Juraj Parajka, Norbert Pfeifer, Andreas Reithofer, José Salinasa, Peter Valent, Roman Výleta, Jürgen Waser, Michael H. Wimmer, and Heinz Stiefelmeyer
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-209, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-209, 2023
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
A methodology of regional flood hazard mapping is proposed, based on experiences in Austria, which combines automatic methods with manual interventions in order to maximise efficiency and estimation accuracy similar to that of local studies. Flood discharge records from 781 stations are used to estimate flood hazard patterns of a given return period at a resolution of 2 m over a total stream length of 38000 km. The hazard maps are used for civil protection, risk awareness and insurance purposes.
Nejc Bezak, Panos Panagos, Leonidas Liakos, and Matjaž Mikoš
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3885–3893, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3885-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3885-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Extreme flooding occurred in Slovenia in August 2023. This brief communication examines the main causes, mechanisms and effects of this event. The flood disaster of August 2023 can be described as relatively extreme and was probably the most extreme flood event in Slovenia in recent decades. The economic damage was large and could amount to well over 5 % of Slovenia's annual gross domestic product; the event also claimed three lives.
Ana Paez-Trujilo, Jeffer Cañon, Beatriz Hernandez, Gerald Corzo, and Dimitri Solomatine
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3863–3883, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3863-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3863-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This study uses a machine learning technique, the multivariate regression tree approach, to assess the hydroclimatic characteristics that govern agricultural and hydrological drought severity. The results show that the employed technique successfully identified the primary drivers of droughts and their critical thresholds. In addition, it provides relevant information to identify the areas most vulnerable to droughts and design strategies and interventions for drought management.
Bouchra Zellou, Nabil El Moçayd, and El Houcine Bergou
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3543–3583, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3543-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3543-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, we underscore the critical importance of strengthening drought prediction capabilities in the Mediterranean region. We present an in-depth evaluation of current drought forecasting approaches, encompassing statistical, dynamical, and hybrid statistical–dynamical models, and highlight unexplored research opportunities. Additionally, we suggest viable directions to enhance drought prediction and early warning systems within the area.
Francisco Rodrigues do Amaral, Nicolas Gratiot, Thierry Pellarin, and Tran Anh Tu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3379–3405, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3379-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3379-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We propose an in-depth analysis of typhoon-induced compound flood drivers in the megacity of Ho Chi Minh, Vietnam. We use in situ and satellite measurements throughout the event to form a holistic overview of its impact. No evidence of storm surge was found, and peak precipitation presents a 16 h time lag to peak river discharge, which evacuates only 1.5 % of available water. The astronomical tide controls the river level even during the extreme event, and it is the main urban flood driver.
Juliette Godet, Olivier Payrastre, Pierre Javelle, and François Bouttier
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3355–3377, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3355-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3355-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This article results from a master's research project which was part of a natural hazards programme developed by the French Ministry of Ecological Transition. The objective of this work was to investigate a possible way to improve the operational flash flood warning service by adding rainfall forecasts upstream of the forecasting chain. The results showed that the tested forecast product, which is new and experimental, has a real added value compared to other classical forecast products.
Florian Roth, Bernhard Bauer-Marschallinger, Mark Edwin Tupas, Christoph Reimer, Peter Salamon, and Wolfgang Wagner
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3305–3317, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3305-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3305-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
In August and September 2022, millions of people were impacted by a severe flood event in Pakistan. Since many roads and other infrastructure were destroyed, satellite data were the only way of providing large-scale information on the flood's impact. Based on the flood mapping algorithm developed at Technische Universität Wien (TU Wien), we mapped an area of 30 492 km2 that was flooded at least once during the study's time period. This affected area matches about the total area of Belgium.
Clément Houdard, Adrien Poupardin, Philippe Sergent, Abdelkrim Bennabi, and Jena Jeong
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3111–3124, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3111-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3111-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We developed a system able to to predict, knowing the appropriate characteristics of the flood defense structure and sea state, the return periods of potentially dangerous events as well as a ranking of parameters by order of uncertainty.
The model is a combination of statistical and empirical methods that have been applied to a Mediterranean earthen dike. This shows that the most important characteristics of the dyke are its geometrical features, such as its height and slope angles.
Lisa Köhler, Torsten Masson, Sabrina Köhler, and Christian Kuhlicke
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2787–2806, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2787-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2787-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We analyzed the impact of flood experience on adaptive behavior and self-reported resilience. The outcomes draw a paradoxical picture: the most experienced people are the most adapted but the least resilient. We find evidence for non-linear relationships between the number of floods experienced and resilience. We contribute to existing knowledge by focusing specifically on the number of floods experienced and extending the rare scientific literature on the influence of experience on resilience.
Helen Hooker, Sarah L. Dance, David C. Mason, John Bevington, and Kay Shelton
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2769–2785, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2769-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2769-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Ensemble forecasts of flood inundation produce maps indicating the probability of flooding. A new approach is presented to evaluate the spatial performance of an ensemble flood map forecast by comparison against remotely observed flooding extents. This is important for understanding forecast uncertainties and improving flood forecasting systems.
Arnau Amengual, Romu Romero, María Carmen Llasat, Alejandro Hermoso, and Montserrat Llasat-Botija
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-130, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-130, 2023
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
On 22 October 2019, the Francolí river basin (Catalonia, Spain) experienced a heavy precipitation event, resulting in a catastrophic flash flood. The main hydrometeorological factors are investigated. The social response times are also collected and compared with catchment dynamics in order to examine the adequacy of monitoring and warning issuance. Finally, the study provides recommendations aimed at minimizing losses and improving preparedness for similar natural hazards in the future.
Betina I. Guido, Ioana Popescu, Vidya Samadi, and Biswa Bhattacharya
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2663–2681, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2663-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2663-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We used an integrated model to evaluate the impacts of nature-based solutions (NBSs) on flood mitigation across the Little Pee Dee and Lumber River watershed, the Carolinas, US. This area is strongly affected by climatic disasters, which are expected to increase due to climate change and urbanization, so exploring an NBS approach is crucial for adapting to future alterations. Our research found that NBSs can have visible effects on the reduction in hurricane-driven flooding.
Taylor Glen Johnson, Jorge Leandro, and Divine Kwaku Ahadzie
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1511, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1511, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Reliance on infrastructure creates vulnerabilities to disruptions caused by natural hazards. To assess the impacts of natural hazards on the performance of infrastructure, we present a framework for quantifying resilience and develop a model of recovery based upon an application of project scheduling under resource constraints. The resilience framework and recovery model were applied in a case study to assess the resilience of buildings infrastructure to flooding hazards in Accra, Ghana.
Maliko Tanguy, Michael Eastman, Eugene Magee, Lucy J. Barker, Thomas Chitson, Chaiwat Ekkawatpanit, Daniel Goodwin, Jamie Hannaford, Ian Holman, Liwa Pardthaisong, Simon Parry, Dolores Rey Vicario, and Supattra Visessri
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2419–2441, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2419-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2419-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Droughts in Thailand are becoming more severe due to climate change. Understanding the link between drought impacts on the ground and drought indicators used in drought monitoring systems can help increase a country's preparedness and resilience to drought. With a focus on agricultural droughts, we derive crop- and region-specific indicator-to-impact links that can form the basis of targeted mitigation actions and an improved drought monitoring and early warning system in Thailand.
Yanxia Shen, Zhenduo Zhu, Qi Zhou, and Chunbo Jiang
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1106, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1106, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We present an improved Multigrid Dynamical Bidirectional Coupled hydrologic-hydrodynamic Model (M-DBCM) with two major improvements: 1) automated non-uniform mesh generation based on the D∞ algorithm was implemented to identify the flood-prone areas where high-resolution inundation conditions are needed; 2) ghost cells and bilinear interpolation were implemented to improve numerical accuracy in interpolating variables between the coarse and fine grids. The improved model was reliable.
Leon Scheiber, Mazen Hoballah Jalloul, Christian Jordan, Jan Visscher, Hong Quan Nguyen, and Torsten Schlurmann
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2313–2332, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2313-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2313-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Numerical models are increasingly important for assessing urban flooding, yet reliable input data are oftentimes hard to obtain. Taking Ho Chi Minh City as an example, this paper explores the usability and reliability of open-access data to produce preliminary risk maps that provide first insights into potential flooding hotspots. As a key novelty, a normalized flood severity index is presented which combines flood depth and duration to enhance the interpretation of hydro-numerical results.
Claudia Herbert and Petra Döll
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2111–2131, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2111-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2111-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This paper presents a new method for selecting streamflow drought hazard indicators for monitoring drought hazard for human water supply and river ecosystems in large-scale drought early warning systems. Indicators are classified by their inherent assumptions about the habituation of people and ecosystems to the streamflow regime and their level of drought characterization, namely drought magnitude (water deficit at a certain point in time) and severity (cumulated magnitude since drought onset).
Maryse Charpentier-Noyer, Daniela Peredo, Axelle Fleury, Hugo Marchal, François Bouttier, Eric Gaume, Pierre Nicolle, Olivier Payrastre, and Maria-Helena Ramos
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2001–2029, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2001-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2001-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This paper proposes a methodological framework designed for event-based evaluation in the context of an intense flash-flood event. The evaluation adopts the point of view of end users, with a focus on the anticipation of exceedances of discharge thresholds. With a study of rainfall forecasts, a discharge evaluation and a detailed look at the forecast hydrographs, the evaluation framework should help in drawing robust conclusions about the usefulness of new rainfall ensemble forecasts.
Min Li, Mingfeng Zhang, Runxiang Cao, Yidi Sun, and Xiyuan Deng
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1453–1464, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1453-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1453-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
It is an important disaster reduction strategy to forecast hydrological drought. In order to analyse the impact of human activities on hydrological drought, we constructed the human activity factor based on the method of restoration. With the increase of human index (HI) value, hydrological droughts tend to transition to more severe droughts. The conditional distribution model involving of human activity factor can further improve the forecasting accuracy of drought in the Luanhe River basin.
Patrick Ludwig, Florian Ehmele, Mário J. Franca, Susanna Mohr, Alberto Caldas-Alvarez, James E. Daniell, Uwe Ehret, Hendrik Feldmann, Marie Hundhausen, Peter Knippertz, Katharina Küpfer, Michael Kunz, Bernhard Mühr, Joaquim G. Pinto, Julian Quinting, Andreas M. Schäfer, Frank Seidel, and Christina Wisotzky
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1287–1311, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1287-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1287-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Heavy precipitation in July 2021 led to widespread floods in western Germany and neighboring countries. The event was among the five heaviest precipitation events of the past 70 years in Germany, and the river discharges exceeded by far the statistical 100-year return values. Simulations of the event under future climate conditions revealed a strong and non-linear effect on flood peaks: for +2 K global warming, an 18 % increase in rainfall led to a 39 % increase of the flood peak in the Ahr river.
Nadav Peleg, Herminia Torelló-Sentelles, Grégoire Mariéthoz, Lionel Benoit, João P. Leitão, and Francesco Marra
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1233–1240, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1233-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1233-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Floods in urban areas are one of the most common natural hazards. Due to climate change enhancing extreme rainfall and cities becoming larger and denser, the impacts of these events are expected to increase. A fast and reliable flood warning system should thus be implemented in flood-prone cities to warn the public of upcoming floods. The purpose of this brief communication is to discuss the potential implementation of low-cost acoustic rainfall sensors in short-term flood warning systems.
Katharina Lengfeld, Paul Voit, Frank Kaspar, and Maik Heistermann
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1227–1232, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1227-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1227-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Estimating the severity of a rainfall event based on the damage caused is easy but highly depends on the affected region. A less biased measure for the extremeness of an event is its rarity combined with its spatial extent. In this brief communication, we investigate the sensitivity of such measures to the underlying dataset and highlight the importance of considering multiple spatial and temporal scales using the devastating rainfall event in July 2021 in central Europe as an example.
Paul D. Bates, James Savage, Oliver Wing, Niall Quinn, Christopher Sampson, Jeffrey Neal, and Andrew Smith
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 891–908, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-891-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-891-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We present and validate a model that simulates current and future flood risk for the UK at high resolution (~ 20–25 m). We show that UK flood losses were ~ 6 % greater in the climate of 2020 compared to recent historical values. The UK can keep any future increase to ~ 8 % if all countries implement their COP26 pledges and net-zero ambitions in full. However, if only the COP26 pledges are fulfilled, then UK flood losses increase by ~ 23 %; and potentially by ~ 37 % in a worst-case scenario.
Dirk Eilander, Anaïs Couasnon, Tim Leijnse, Hiroaki Ikeuchi, Dai Yamazaki, Sanne Muis, Job Dullaart, Arjen Haag, Hessel C. Winsemius, and Philip J. Ward
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 823–846, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-823-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-823-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
In coastal deltas, flooding can occur from interactions between coastal, riverine, and pluvial drivers, so-called compound flooding. Global models however ignore these interactions. We present a framework for automated and reproducible compound flood modeling anywhere globally and validate it for two historical events in Mozambique with good results. The analysis reveals differences in compound flood dynamics between both events related to the magnitude of and time lag between drivers.
Omar Seleem, Georgy Ayzel, Axel Bronstert, and Maik Heistermann
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 809–822, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-809-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-809-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Data-driven models are becoming more of a surrogate that overcomes the limitations of the computationally expensive 2D hydrodynamic models to map urban flood hazards. However, the model's ability to generalize outside the training domain is still a major challenge. We evaluate the performance of random forest and convolutional neural networks to predict urban floodwater depth and investigate their transferability outside the training domain.
Tahmina Yasmin, Kieran Khamis, Anthony Ross, Subir Sen, Anita Sharma, Debashish Sen, Sumit Sen, Wouter Buytaert, and David M. Hannah
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 667–674, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-667-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-667-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Floods continue to be a wicked problem that require developing early warning systems with plausible assumptions of risk behaviour, with more targeted conversations with the community at risk. Through this paper we advocate the use of a SMART approach to encourage bottom-up initiatives to develop inclusive and purposeful early warning systems that benefit the community at risk by engaging them at every step of the way along with including other stakeholders at multiple scales of operations.
Venkataswamy Sahana and Arpita Mondal
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 623–641, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-623-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-623-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
In an agriculture-dependent, densely populated country such as India, drought risk projection is important to assess future water security. This study presents the first comprehensive drought risk assessment over India, integrating hazard and vulnerability information. Future drought risk is found to be more significantly driven by increased vulnerability resulting from societal developments rather than climate-induced changes in hazard. These findings can inform planning for drought resilience.
Susanna Mohr, Uwe Ehret, Michael Kunz, Patrick Ludwig, Alberto Caldas-Alvarez, James E. Daniell, Florian Ehmele, Hendrik Feldmann, Mário J. Franca, Christian Gattke, Marie Hundhausen, Peter Knippertz, Katharina Küpfer, Bernhard Mühr, Joaquim G. Pinto, Julian Quinting, Andreas M. Schäfer, Marc Scheibel, Frank Seidel, and Christina Wisotzky
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 525–551, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-525-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-525-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The flood event in July 2021 was one of the most severe disasters in Europe in the last half century. The objective of this two-part study is a multi-disciplinary assessment that examines the complex process interactions in different compartments, from meteorology to hydrological conditions to hydro-morphological processes to impacts on assets and environment. In addition, we address the question of what measures are possible to generate added value to early response management.
Yinxue Liu, Paul D. Bates, and Jeffery C. Neal
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 375–391, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-375-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-375-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
In this paper, we test two approaches for removing buildings and other above-ground objects from a state-of-the-art satellite photogrammetry topography product, ArcticDEM. Our best technique gives a 70 % reduction in vertical error, with an average difference of 1.02 m from a benchmark lidar for the city of Helsinki, Finland. When used in a simulation of rainfall-driven flooding, the bare-earth version of ArcticDEM yields a significant improvement in predicted inundation extent and water depth.
Joseph L. Gutenson, Ahmad A. Tavakoly, Mohammad S. Islam, Oliver E. J. Wing, William P. Lehman, Chase O. Hamilton, Mark D. Wahl, and T. Christopher Massey
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 261–277, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-261-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-261-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Emergency managers use event-based flood inundation maps (FIMs) to plan and coordinate flood emergency response. We perform a case study test of three different FIM frameworks to see if FIM differences lead to substantial differences in the location and magnitude of flood exposure and consequences. We find that the FIMs are very different spatially and that the spatial differences do produce differences in the location and magnitude of exposure and consequences.
Cited articles
Agrawal, R., Gehrke, J., Gunopulos, D., and Raghavan, P.: Automatic subspace
clustering of high dimensional data for data mining applications, in:
Proceedings of the 1998 ACM SIGMOD International Conference on Management of
Data, ACM Press, 1–4 June 1998, Seattle, Washington, USA, 94–105, https://doi.org/10.1145/276304.276314, 1998.
Arabie, P. and De Soete, G.: Clustering and classification, World
Scientific, Seattle, Washington (USA), June, 1998, https://doi.org/10.1142/1930, 1996.
Arrighi, C., Pregnolato, M., Dawson, R. J., and Castelli, F.: Preparedness
against mobility disruption by floods, Sci. Total Environ., 654, 1010–1022.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.11.191, 2019.
Balistrocchi, M., Grossi, G., and Bacchi, B.: Deriving a practical
analytical-probabilistic method to size flood routing reservoirs, Adv. Water
Resour., 62, 37–46, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.advwatres.2013.09.018, 2013.
Balistrocchi, M., Moretti, G., Orlandini, S., and Ranzi, R.: Copula-based
modelling of earthen levee breach due to overtopping, Adv. Water Resour.,
134, 103443, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.advwatres.2019.103433, 2019.
Barredo, J. I.: Normalised flood losses in Europe: 1970–2006, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 9, 97–104, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-9-97-2009, 2009.
Becker, R. A., Caceres, R., Hanson, K., Loh, J. M., Urbanek, S., Varshavsky,
A., and Volinsky, C.: Route classification using cellular handoff patterns,
in: Proceedings of the 13th international conference on Ubiquitous
computing, Beijing (China), September 2011, 123–132, ACM press, 2011.
Blöschl, G., J. Hall, A. Viglione, R. A. P. Perdigão, J. Parajka, B. Merz, D. Lun, B. Arheimer, G. T. Aronica, A. Bilibashi, M. Boháč, O. Bonacci, M. Borga, I. Čanjevac, A. Castellarin, G. B. Chirico, P. Claps, N. Frolova, D. Ganora, L. Gorbachova, A. Gül, J. Hannaford, S. Harrigan, M. Kireeva, A. Kiss, T. R. Kjeldsen, S. Kohnová, J. J. Koskela, O. Ledvinka, N. Macdonald, M. Mavrova-Guirguinova, L. Mediero, R. Merz, P. Molnar, A. Montanari, C. Murphy, M. Osuch, V. Ovcharuk, I. Radevski, J. L. Salinas, E. Sauquet, M. Šraj, J. Szolgay, E. Volpi, D. Wilson, K. Zaimi, and N. Živković: Changing climate both increases and decreases
European river floods, Nature, 573, 108–111, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-019-1495-6,
2019.
Bouveyron, C., Girard, S., and Schmid, C.: High-dimensional data clustering,
Comput. Stat. Data An., 52, 502–519, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.csda.2007.02.009,
2007.
Bouveyron, C., Come, E., and Jacques, J.: The discriminative functional
mixture model for a comparative analysis of bike sharing systems, Ann. Appl.
Stat., 9, 1726–1760, https://doi.org/10.1214/15-AOAS861, 2015.
Bouwer, L. M., Bubeck, P., and Aerts, J. C. J. H.: Changes in future flood
risk due to climate and development in a Dutch polder area, Global Environ.
Chang., 20, 463–471, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2010.04.002, 2010.
Calabrese, F., Ferrari, L., and Blondel, V. D.: Urban sensing using mobile
phone network data: A survey of research, ACM Comput. Surv., 47, 2655691,
https://doi.org/10.1145/2655691, 2015.
Carpita M.: The mobile phone big data tell the story of Christo's The
Floating Piers impact on the Lake Iseo, in: Book of Short Papers of the ASA 2019 Conference “Statistics for Health and
Well-being”, edited by: Carpita, M. and Fabbris, L., CLEUP, 25–27 September 2019, Brescia (Italy), pp. 53–56, ISBN 978-88-5495-135-8, 2019.
Carpita, M. and Simonetto, A.: Big data to monitor big social events: Analysing the mobile phone signals in the Brescia smart city, Electron. J. Appl. Stat. Anal., 5, 31–41, https://doi.org/10.1285/i2037-3627v5n1p31, 2014.
CENSIS: 53∘ Rapporto sulla situazione sociale del Paese, Franco
Angeli,
https://www.censis.it/rapporto-annuale/sintesi-del-53%C2%B0-rapporto-censis (last access: 1 December 2020),
2019 (in Italian).
Dawson, R. J., Peppe, R., and Wang, M.: An agent-based model for risk-based
flood incident management, Nat. Hazards, 59, 167–189,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-011-9745-4, 2011.
Dalal, N. and Triggs, B.: Histograms of oriented gradients for human
detection, in: Proceedings of the International Conference on Computer
Vision & Pattern Recognition (CVPR '05), June 2005, San Diego, United States, pp. 886–893, https://doi.org/10.1109/CVPR.2005.177, 2005.
Donoho, D. L.: High-dimensional data analysis: The curses and blessings of
dimensionality, AMS Math Challenges Lecture, 1–32, 2000.
Di Baldassarre, G., Viglione, A., Carr, G., Kuil, L., Salinas, J. L., and Blöschl, G.: Socio-hydrology: conceptualising human-flood interactions, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 3295–3303, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-3295-2013, 2013.
European Union: Directive 2007/60/EC on the assessment and management of flood risks, Official Journal of European Union, 227, 27–34, 2007.
Erlang, A. K.: The theory of probabilities and telephone conversations, Nyt Tidsskrift Matematika, 20, 33–39, 1909.
Febrero-Bande, M., Galeano, P., and Gonzalez-Manteiga, W.: Outlier
detection in functional data by depth measures, with application to identify
abnormal NOx levels, Environmetrics, 19, 331–345, https://doi.org/10.1002/env.878, 2008.
Feyen, L. and Dankers, R.: Impact of global warming on streamflow drought
in Europe, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 114, D17116, https://doi.org/10.1029/2008JD011438, 2009.
Fuchs, S., Keiler, M., and Zischg, A.: A spatiotemporal multi-hazard exposure assessment based on property data, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 2127–2142, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-2127-2015, 2015.
Gabrys, R. and Kokoszka, P.: Portmanteau test of independence for
functional observations, J. Am. Stat. Assoc., 102, 1338–1348,
https://doi.org/10.1198/016214507000001111, 2007.
Guntha, R., Rao, S., Benndorf, M., and Haenselmann. T.: A comprehensive
crowd-sourcing approach to urban flood management, in: Lecture Notes of the
Institute for Computer Sciences, Social-Informatics and Telecommunications
Engineering (LNICST), 218, 13–24, Springer Verlag, NY, 2018.
Goodchild, M. F.: Citizens as sensors: The world of volunteered geography,
Geojournal, 69, 211–221, https://doi.org/10.1002/9780470979587.ch48, 2007.
Goodchild, M. F., Aubrecht, C., and Bhaduri. B.: New questions and a
changing focus in advanced VGI research, T. GIS, 21, 189–190, https://doi.org/10.1111/tgis.12242, 2017.
Haer, T., Botzen, W. J. W., and Aerts, J. C. J. H.: The effectiveness of
flood risk communication strategies and the influence of social
networks-insights from an agent-based model, Environ. Sci.
Policy, 60, 44–52, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsci.2016.03.006, 2016.
Han, S. and Ciravegna, F.: Rumour detection on social media for crisis management, Paper presented at the Proceedings of the International ISCRAM Conference, 19–22 May 2019, Valencia, Spain, 660–673, 2019.
Hartigan, J. A. and Wong, M. A.: Algorithm AS 136: A k-means clustering algorithm, J. R. Stat. Soc. C, 28, 100–108,
https://doi.org/10.2307/2346830, 1979.
Hartmann, D. L., Klein Tank, A. M. G., Rusticucci, M., Alexander, L. V., Brönnimann, S., Charabi, Y., Dentener, F. J., Dlugokencky, E. J., Easterling, D. R., Kaplan, A., Soden, B. J., Thorne, P. W., Wild, M., and Zhai, P. M.: Observations: Atmosphere and surface, in:
“Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis.
Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change”, edited by: Stocker, T. F., Qin, D., Plattner, G.-K., Tignor, M., Allen, S. K., Boschung, J., Nauels, A., Xia, Y., Bex, V., and Midgley, P. M.: Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, 2013.
Hirata, E., Giannotti, M. A., Larocca, A. P. C., and Quintanilha, J. A.:
Flooding and inundation collaborative mapping - use of the Crowdmap/Ushahidi
platform in the city of Sao Paulo, Brazil, J. Flood Risk Manag., 11, S98–S109, https://doi.org/10.1111/jfr3.12181, 2018.
Hung, K.-C., Kalantari, M., and Rajabifard., A.: Methods for assessing the
credibility of volunteered geographic information in flood response: a case
study in Brisbane, Australia, Appl. Geogr., 68, 37–47,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apgeog.2016.01.005, 2016.
Kellens, W., Terpstra, T., and De Maeyer, P.: Perception and communication
of flood risks: A systematic review of empirical research, Risk Anal., 33,
24–49, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.2012.01844.x, 2013.
Keogh, E. and Mueen, A.: Curse of dimensionality, in: Encyclopedia of Machine Learning and Data Mining, edited by: Sammut, C. and Webb,
G. I., Springer, New York, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4899-7687-1_192, 314–315, 2017.
Italian Ministry of Economy and Finance: Department of Finances, Data and Statistics, available at: https://www.finanze.it/opencms/it/statistiche-fiscali/, last access: 1 December 2020.
Johnson, C. L. and Priest, S. J.: Flood risk management in England: A
changing landscape of risk responsibility?, Water Resour. Dev., 24,
513–525, https://doi.org/10.1080/07900620801923146, 2008.
Jovi, A., Brki, K., and Bogunovi, N.: A review of feature selection methods
with applications, in: Proceedings of the 38th International Convention
on Information and Communication Technology, Electronics and
Microelectronics (MIPRO), 25–29 May 2015, Opatija, Croatia, 1200–1205, https://doi.org/10.1109/MIPRO.2015.7160458, 2015.
Kreibich, H., Thaler, T., Glade, T., and Molinari, D.: Preface: Damage of natural hazards: assessment and mitigation, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 551–554, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-551-2019, 2019.
Il Sole 24 Ore: Telefoni cellulari: è corsa al ribasso per le tariffe,
available at: https://www.ilsole24ore.com/art/telefoni-cellulari-e-corsa-ribasso-le-tariffe-AESqTnQB, last access: 23 May 2017 (in Italian).
ISPRA: Soil consumption in Italy – 2019 Edition, Report SNPA, 08/19, ISBN
978-88-448-0964-5, 2019 (in Italian).
ISTAT: Basi territoriali e variabili censuarie, available at: https://www.istat.it/it/archivio/104317 (last access:
17 July 2019) 2011.
Liao, K.-H.: A theory on urban resilience to floods – A basis for
alternative planning practices, Ecol. Soc., 17, 40,
https://doi.org/10.5751/ES-05231-170448, 2012.
Lombardy Region: Home Geoportale della Regione Lombardia, available at: http://www.geoportale.regione.lombardia.it/, last access: 3 March 2020.
Maaskant, B., Jonkman, S. N., and Bouwer, L. M.: Future risk of flooding: an
analysis of changes in potential loss of life in South Holland (the
Netherlands), Environ. Sci. Policy, 12, 157–169,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsci.2008.11.004, 2009.
Manfredini, F., Pucci, P., Secchi, P., Tagliolato, P., Vantini, S., and
Vitelli, V.: Treelet decomposition of mobile phone data for deriving city
usage and mobility pattern in the Milan urban region, in: Advances in Complex Data Modeling and Computational Methods in Statistics, Contributions to Statistics, edited by: Paganoni, A. M. and Secchi, P., Springer, Cham,
133–147, 2015.
Mazumdar, S., Wrigley, S., and Ciravegna, F.: Citizen science and
crowdsourcing for earth observations: An analysis of stakeholder opinions on
the present and future, Remote Sens., 9, 87, https://doi.org/10.3390/rs9010087, 2017.
Mazzoleni, M., Cortes Arevalo, V. J., Wehn, U., Alfonso, L., Norbiato, D., Monego, M., Ferri, M., and Solomatine, D. P.: Exploring the influence of citizen involvement on the assimilation of crowdsourced observations: a modelling study based on the 2013 flood event in the Bacchiglione catchment (Italy), Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 391–416, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-391-2018, 2018.
Merz, B., Kreibich, H., Schwarze, R., and Thieken, A.: Review article ”Assessment of economic flood damage”, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 10, 1697–1724, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-10-1697-2010, 2010.
Metulini, R. and Carpita, M.: The HOG-FDA Approach with Mobile Phone Data to
Modeling the Dynamic of Peoples Presences in the City, in: IES 2019 Innovation & Society – Statistical Evaluation Systems at 360: Techniques, Technologies and new Frontiers Book of Abstracts, edited by: Bini, M., Amenta, P., D'Ambra, A., and Camminatiello, I., Cuzzolin Editing, Rome (Italy), 2019a.
Metulini, R. and Carpita, M.: A strategy for the matching of mobile phone
signals with census data, in: SIS 2019 Smart Statistics for Smart Applications Book of Short Papers, edited by: Arbia, G., Peluso, S., Pini, A., and Rivellini, G., 427–434, Pearson Publishing, Milan (Italy), 2019b.
Metulini, R. and Carpita, M.: A Spatio-Temporal Indicator for City Users based on Mobile Phone Signals and Administrative Data, Soc. Indic. Res., https://doi.org/10.1007/s11205-020-02355-2, online first, 2020.
Poser, K. and Dransch, D.: Volunteered geographical information for
disasters management with application to rapid flood damage estimation,
Geomatica, 64, 89–98, 2010.
Rojas, R., Feyen, L., and Watkiss, P.: Climate change and river floods in the European Union: socio-economic consequences and the costs and benefits of adaptation, Global Environ. Change, 23, 1737–1751,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2013.08.006, 2013.
Rosser, J. F., Leibovici, D. G., and Jackson, M. J.: Rapid flood inundation
mapping using social media, remote sensing and topographic data, Nat.
Hazards, 87, 103–120, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-017-2755-0, 2017.
Salhi, A. I., Kardouchi, M., and Belacel, N.: Histograms of fuzzy oriented
gradients for face recognition, in: 2013 International conference on
computer applications technology (ICCAT), 20–22 January, 2013, Sousse (Tunisia), 1–5, IEEE, 2013.
Secchi, P., Vantini, S., and Vitelli, V.: Analysis of spatio-temporal mobile
phone data: A case study in the metropolitan area of Milan, Stat. Method.
Appl., 24, 279–300, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10260-014-0294-3, 2015.
Solomon, S., Qin, D., Manning, M., Chen, Z., Marquis, M., Averyt, K. B., Tignor, M., and Miller, H. L.: AR4 Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis.
Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press,
Cambridge, UK, 2007.
Schumann, A.: Flood safety versus remaining risks – options and limitations
of probabilistic concepts in flood management, Water Resour. Manag., 31,
3131–3145, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-017-1700-z, 2017.
Sun, Y. and Genton, M. G.: Functional boxplots, J. Comput. Graph. Stat.,
20, 316–334, https://doi.org/10.1198/jcgs.2011.09224, 2011.
Sun, Y. and Genton, M. G.: Adjusted functional boxplots for spatiotemporal
data visualization and outlier detection, Environmetrics, 23, 54–64,
https://doi.org/10.1002/env.1136, 2012.
Székely, G. J. and Rizzo, M. L.: The distance correlation t-test of
independence in high dimension, J. Multivariate Anal., 117, 193–213,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmva.2013.02.012, 2013.
te Linde, A. H., Bubeck, P., Dekkers, J. E. C., de Moel, H., and Aerts, J. C. J. H.: Future flood risk estimates along the river Rhine, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 11, 459–473, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-11-459-2011, 2011.
Tomasi, C.: Histograms of oriented gradients, Computer Vision Sampler, 1–6,
2012.
UN DESA Population Division: World urbanization prospects: The 2011
revision, United Nations Department of Social Affairs (UN DESA) Population
Division, New York, USA, 2012.
UN ISDR: 2009 UNISDR terminology on disaster risk reduction, United Nations
International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (UN ISDR), Geneva, CH, 2009.
Viglione, A., Di Baldassarre, G., Brandimarte, L., Kuil, L., Carr, G.,
Salinas, J. L., Scolobig, A., and Blöschl, G.: Insights from
socio-hydrology modelling on dealing with flood risk - roles of collective
memory, risk-taking attitude and trust, J. Hydrol., 518, 71–82,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2014.01.018, 2014.
Vorogushyn, S., Merz, B., and Apel, H.: Development of dike fragility curves for piping and micro-instability breach mechanisms, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 9, 1383–1401, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-9-1383-2009, 2009.
Vu, T. T. and Ranzi, R.: Flood risk assessment and coping capacity of floods
in central Vietnam, J. Hydro-Environ. Res., 14, 44–60.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jher.2016.06.001, 2017.
Zanini, P., Shen, H., and Truong, Y.: Understanding resident mobility in
Milan through independent component analysis of Telecom Italia mobile usage
data, Ann. Appl. Stat., 10, 812–833, https://doi.org/10.1214/16-AOAS913, 2016.
Short summary
Flood risk is an increasing threat to urban communities and their strategical assets worldwide. Non-structural practices, such as emergency management plans, can be effective in order to decrease the flood risk in strongly urbanized areas. Mobile phone data provide reliable estimates of the spatiotemporal variability in people exposed to flooding, thus enhancing the preparedness of stakeholders involved in flood risk management. Further, practical advantages emerge with respect to crowdsourcing.
Flood risk is an increasing threat to urban communities and their strategical assets worldwide....
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint