Articles | Volume 17, issue 12
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 2335–2350, 2017
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-2335-2017
© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 2335–2350, 2017
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-2335-2017
© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
19 Dec 2017
Research article
| 19 Dec 2017
Structural analysis of S-wave seismics around an urban sinkhole: evidence of enhanced dissolution in a strike-slip fault zone
Sonja H. Wadas et al.
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Sonja Halina Wadas, Hermann Buness, Raphael Rochlitz, Peter Skiba, Thomas Günther, Michael Grinat, David Colin Tanner, Ulrich Polom, Gerald Gabriel, and Charlotte M. Krawczyk
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2022-164, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2022-164, 2022
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The dissolution of rocks (subrosion) poses a severe hazard because it can cause subsidence and sinkhole formation. Based on results from our study area in Thuringia, Germany, using P- and SH-wave reflection seismics, electrical resistivity- and electromagnetic methods and gravimetry, we develop a geophysical investigation workflow. This workflow enables to identify the initial triggers of subrosion and its control factors, such as structural constraints, fluid pathways, and mass movement.
Sonja H. Wadas, Ulrich Polom, and Charlotte M. Krawczyk
Solid Earth, 7, 1491–1508, https://doi.org/10.5194/se-7-1491-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/se-7-1491-2016, 2016
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Subrosion is the subsurface leaching of soluble rocks. It is a global phenomenon and a geohazard in urban areas because it causes depressions and sinkholes. This is the case in the study area, the town of Bad Frankenhausen, in northern Thuringia, Germany. Using shear-wave seismic reflection we are able to image these structures at high resolution to a depth of ca. 100 m. We observe that the underground is strongly fractured and there are indications of cavities.
Sonja Halina Wadas, Hermann Buness, Raphael Rochlitz, Peter Skiba, Thomas Günther, Michael Grinat, David Colin Tanner, Ulrich Polom, Gerald Gabriel, and Charlotte M. Krawczyk
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2022-164, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2022-164, 2022
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The dissolution of rocks (subrosion) poses a severe hazard because it can cause subsidence and sinkhole formation. Based on results from our study area in Thuringia, Germany, using P- and SH-wave reflection seismics, electrical resistivity- and electromagnetic methods and gravimetry, we develop a geophysical investigation workflow. This workflow enables to identify the initial triggers of subrosion and its control factors, such as structural constraints, fluid pathways, and mass movement.
Martin Peter Lipus, Felix Schölderle, Thomas Reinsch, Christopher Wollin, Charlotte Krawczyk, Daniela Pfrang, and Kai Zosseder
Solid Earth, 13, 161–176, https://doi.org/10.5194/se-13-161-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/se-13-161-2022, 2022
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A fiber-optic cable was installed along a freely suspended rod in a deep geothermal well in Munich, Germany. A cold-water injection test was monitored with fiber-optic distributed acoustic and temperature sensing. During injection, we observe vibrational events in the lower part of the well. On the basis of a mechanical model, we conclude that the vibrational events are caused by thermal contraction of the rod. The results illustrate potential artifacts when analyzing downhole acoustic data.
Evgeniia Martuganova and Charlotte M. Krawczyk
Solid Earth Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/se-2021-138, https://doi.org/10.5194/se-2021-138, 2021
Revised manuscript under review for SE
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We demonstrate the applicability of vertical seismic profiling (VSP) acquired using wireline distributed acoustic sensing (DAS) technology for deep geothermal reservoir imaging and characterisation. Borehole DAS data provides critical input for seismic interpretation and helps assess small-scale geological structures. This case study can be used as a basis for detailed structural exploration of geothermal reservoir and provide insightful information for the geothermal exploration projects.
Djamil Al-Halbouni, Robert A. Watson, Eoghan P. Holohan, Rena Meyer, Ulrich Polom, Fernando M. Dos Santos, Xavier Comas, Hussam Alrshdan, Charlotte M. Krawczyk, and Torsten Dahm
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 3351–3395, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-3351-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-3351-2021, 2021
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The rapid decline of the Dead Sea level since the 1960s has provoked a dynamic reaction from the coastal groundwater system, with physical and chemical erosion creating subsurface voids and conduits. By combining remote sensing, geophysical methods, and numerical modelling at the Dead Sea’s eastern shore, we link groundwater flow patterns to the formation of surface stream channels, sinkholes and uvalas. Better understanding of this karst system will improve regional hazard assessment.
Gilda Currenti, Philippe Jousset, Rosalba Napoli, Charlotte Krawczyk, and Michael Weber
Solid Earth, 12, 993–1003, https://doi.org/10.5194/se-12-993-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/se-12-993-2021, 2021
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We investigate the capability of distributed acoustic sensing (DAS) to record dynamic strain changes related to Etna volcano activity in 2019. To validate the DAS measurements, we compute strain estimates from seismic signals recorded by a dense broadband array. A general good agreement is found between array-derived strain and DAS measurements along the fibre optic cable. Localised short wavelength discrepancies highlight small-scale structural heterogeneities in the investigated area.
Jan Henninges, Evgeniia Martuganova, Manfred Stiller, Ben Norden, and Charlotte M. Krawczyk
Solid Earth, 12, 521–537, https://doi.org/10.5194/se-12-521-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/se-12-521-2021, 2021
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We performed a seismic survey in two 4.3 km deep geothermal research wells using the novel method of distributed acoustic sensing and wireline cables. The characteristics of the acquired data, methods for data processing and quality improvement, and interpretations on the geometry and structure of the sedimentary and volcanic reservoir rocks are presented. The method enables measurements at high temperatures and reduced cost compared to conventional sensors.
Vladimir Shipilin, David C. Tanner, Hartwig von Hartmann, and Inga Moeck
Solid Earth, 11, 2097–2117, https://doi.org/10.5194/se-11-2097-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/se-11-2097-2020, 2020
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In our work, we carry out an in-depth structural analysis of a geometrically decoupled fault system in the southern German Molasse Basin using a high-resolution 3-D seismic dataset. Based on this analysis, we reconstruct the tectonic history and changes in the stress regimes to explain the structure and evolution of faults. The results contribute in understanding the driving mechanisms behind formation, propagation, and reactivation of faults during foreland basin formation.
Benjamin Schwarz and Charlotte M. Krawczyk
Solid Earth, 11, 1891–1907, https://doi.org/10.5194/se-11-1891-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/se-11-1891-2020, 2020
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Intricate fault and fracture networks cut through the upper crust, and their detailed delineation and characterization play an important role in the Earth sciences. While conventional geophysical sounding techniques only provide indirect means of detection, we present scale-spanning field data examples, in which coherent diffraction imaging – a framework inspired by optics and visual perception – enables the direct imaging of these crustal features at an unprecedented spatial resolution.
Johanna F. Bauer, Michael Krumbholz, Elco Luijendijk, and David C. Tanner
Solid Earth, 10, 2115–2135, https://doi.org/10.5194/se-10-2115-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/se-10-2115-2019, 2019
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We use a 4-D numerical sensitivity study to investigate which geological parameters exert a dominant control on the quality of a deep geothermal reservoir. We constrain how the variability of these parameters affects the economic potential of a reservoir. We show that the interplay of high permeability and hydraulic gradient is the dominant control on reservoir lifetime. Fracture anisotropy, typical for faults, leads to fluid channelling and thus restricts the exploitable volume significantly.
Djamil Al-Halbouni, Eoghan P. Holohan, Abbas Taheri, Robert A. Watson, Ulrich Polom, Martin P. J. Schöpfer, Sacha Emam, and Torsten Dahm
Solid Earth, 10, 1219–1241, https://doi.org/10.5194/se-10-1219-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/se-10-1219-2019, 2019
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A 2-D numerical modelling approach to simulate the mechanical formation of sinkhole cluster inside large-scale karstic depressions is presented. Different multiple cavity growth scenarios at depth are compared regarding the mechanical process and collapse style. The outcomes of the models are compared to results from remote sensing and geophysics for an active sinkhole area in the Dead Sea region.
Ulrich Polom, Hussam Alrshdan, Djamil Al-Halbouni, Eoghan P. Holohan, Torsten Dahm, Ali Sawarieh, Mohamad Y. Atallah, and Charlotte M. Krawczyk
Solid Earth, 9, 1079–1098, https://doi.org/10.5194/se-9-1079-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/se-9-1079-2018, 2018
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The alluvial fan of Ghor Al-Haditha (Dead Sea) is affected by subsidence and sinkholes. Different models and hypothetical processes have been suggested in the past; high-resolution shear wave reflection surveys carried out in 2013 and 2014 showed the absence of evidence for a massive shallow salt layer as formerly suggested. Thus, a new process interpretation is proposed based on both the dissolution and physical erosion of Dead Sea mud layers.
Sonja H. Wadas, Ulrich Polom, and Charlotte M. Krawczyk
Solid Earth, 7, 1491–1508, https://doi.org/10.5194/se-7-1491-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/se-7-1491-2016, 2016
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Subrosion is the subsurface leaching of soluble rocks. It is a global phenomenon and a geohazard in urban areas because it causes depressions and sinkholes. This is the case in the study area, the town of Bad Frankenhausen, in northern Thuringia, Germany. Using shear-wave seismic reflection we are able to image these structures at high resolution to a depth of ca. 100 m. We observe that the underground is strongly fractured and there are indications of cavities.
Joaquina Alvarez-Marrón, Fernando Bastida, Ernest Rutter, Ramon Carbonell, and Charlotte M. Krawczyk
Solid Earth, 7, 1199–1205, https://doi.org/10.5194/se-7-1199-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/se-7-1199-2016, 2016
Matthias Halisch, Holger Steeb, Steven Henkel, and Charlotte M. Krawczyk
Solid Earth, 7, 1141–1143, https://doi.org/10.5194/se-7-1141-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/se-7-1141-2016, 2016
H. Baumgarten, T. Wonik, D. C. Tanner, A. Francke, B. Wagner, G. Zanchetta, R. Sulpizio, B. Giaccio, and S. Nomade
Biogeosciences, 12, 7453–7465, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-7453-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-7453-2015, 2015
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Gamma ray (GR) fluctuations and K values from downhole logging data obtained in the sediments of Lake Ohrid correlate with the global climate reference record (LR04 stack from δ18O) (Lisiecki and Raymo, 2005). GR and K values are considered a reliable proxy to depict glacial-interglacial cycles and document warm, humid and cold, drier periods. A robust age model for the downhole logging data over the past 630kyr was established and will play a crucial role for other working groups.
T. Burschil, T. Beilecke, and C. M. Krawczyk
Solid Earth, 6, 33–47, https://doi.org/10.5194/se-6-33-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/se-6-33-2015, 2015
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In this paper, we compared, measured and simulated reflection seismology data for different wave types. P wave and shear wave land data were acquired in the field while the synthetic data were generated by finite-difference modelling. Major features of the P waves were imaged, but simulations cannot clarify the signal-to-noise ratio of the shear wave field data. Future modelling approaches will consider additional features for a better understanding of near-surface seismic measurements.
K. Becker, D. Franke, R. Trumbull, M. Schnabel, I. Heyde, B. Schreckenberger, H. Koopmann, K. Bauer, W. Jokat, and C. M. Krawczyk
Solid Earth, 5, 1011–1026, https://doi.org/10.5194/se-5-1011-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/se-5-1011-2014, 2014
C. M. Krawczyk, M.-L. Buddensiek, O. Oncken, and N. Kukowski
Solid Earth, 4, 93–104, https://doi.org/10.5194/se-4-93-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/se-4-93-2013, 2013
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Automated avalanche hazard indication mapping on a statewide scale
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Environmental factors affecting wildfire-burned areas in southeastern France, 1970–2019
Detrainment and braking of snow avalanches interacting with forests
Past and future trends in fire weather for the UK
Methodological and conceptual challenges in rare and severe event forecast verification
Multi-method monitoring of rockfall activity along the classic route up Mont Blanc (4809 m a.s.l.) to encourage adaptation by mountaineers
Wildfire–atmosphere interaction index for extreme-fire behaviour
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Kathryn C. Fisher, Pascal Haegeli, and Patrick Mair
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Avalanche bulletins include travel and terrain statements to provide recreationists with tangible guidance about how to apply the hazard information. We examined which bulletin users pay attention to these statements, what determines their usefulness, and how they could be improved. Our study shows that reducing jargon and adding simple explanations can significantly improve the usefulness of the statements for users with lower levels of avalanche awareness education who depend on this advice.
Cristina Pérez-Guillén, Frank Techel, Martin Hendrick, Michele Volpi, Alec van Herwijnen, Tasko Olevski, Guillaume Obozinski, Fernando Pérez-Cruz, and Jürg Schweizer
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A fully data-driven approach to predicting the danger level for dry-snow avalanche conditions in Switzerland was developed. Two classifiers were trained using a large database of meteorological data, snow cover simulations, and danger levels. The models performed well throughout the Swiss Alps, reaching a performance similar to the current experience-based avalanche forecasts. This approach shows the potential to be a valuable supplementary decision support tool for assessing avalanche hazard.
Frank Techel, Stephanie Mayer, Cristina Pérez-Guillén, Günter Schmudlach, and Kurt Winkler
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1911–1930, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1911-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1911-2022, 2022
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Can the resolution of forecasts of avalanche danger be increased by using a combination of absolute and comparative judgments? Using 5 years of Swiss avalanche forecasts, we show that, on average, sub-levels assigned to a danger level reflect the expected increase in the number of locations with poor snow stability and in the number and size of avalanches with increasing forecast sub-level.
Yves Bühler, Peter Bebi, Marc Christen, Stefan Margreth, Lukas Stoffel, Andreas Stoffel, Christoph Marty, Gregor Schmucki, Andrin Caviezel, Roderick Kühne, Stephan Wohlwend, and Perry Bartelt
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1825–1843, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1825-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1825-2022, 2022
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To calculate and visualize the potential avalanche hazard, we develop a method that automatically and efficiently pinpoints avalanche starting zones and simulate their runout for the entire canton of Grisons. The maps produced in this way highlight areas that could be endangered by avalanches and are extremely useful in multiple applications for the cantonal authorities, including the planning of new infrastructure, making alpine regions more safe.
Tero M. Partanen and Mikhail Sofiev
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1335–1346, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1335-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1335-2022, 2022
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The presented method aims to forecast regional wildfire-emitted radiative power in a time-dependent manner several days in advance. The temporal fire radiative power can be converted to an emission production rate, which can be implemented in air quality forecasting simulations. It is shown that in areas with a high incidence of wildfires, the fire radiative power is quite predictable, but otherwise it is not.
Christos Bountzouklis, Dennis M. Fox, and Elena Di Bernardino
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1181–1200, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1181-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1181-2022, 2022
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Louis Védrine, Xingyue Li, and Johan Gaume
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1015–1028, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1015-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1015-2022, 2022
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Matthew C. Perry, Emilie Vanvyve, Richard A. Betts, and Erika J. Palin
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 559–575, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-559-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-559-2022, 2022
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In the past, wildfires in the UK have occurred mainly in spring, with occasional events during hot, dry summers. Climate models predict a large future increase in hazardous fire weather conditions in summer. Wildfire can be considered an
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Philip A. Ebert and Peter Milne
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 539–557, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-539-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-539-2022, 2022
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There is no consensus about how to assess the quality of binary (yes or no) rare and severe event forecasts, i.e. forecasts involving natural hazards like tornadoes or avalanches. We offer a comprehensive overview of the challenges we face when making such an assessment and provide a critical review of existing solutions. We argue against all but one existing solution to assess the quality of such forecasts and present practical consequences to improve forecasting services.
Jacques Mourey, Pascal Lacroix, Pierre-Allain Duvillard, Guilhem Marsy, Marco Marcer, Emmanuel Malet, and Ludovic Ravanel
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 445–460, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-445-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-445-2022, 2022
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More frequent rockfalls in high alpine environments due to climate change are a growing threat to mountaineers. This hazard is particularly important on the classic route up Mont Blanc. Our results show that rockfalls are most frequent during snowmelt periods and the warmest hours of the day, and that mountaineers do not adapt to the local rockfall hazard when planning their ascent. Disseminating the knowledge acquired from our study caused management measures to be implemented for the route.
Tomàs Artés, Marc Castellnou, Tracy Houston Durrant, and Jesús San-Miguel
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 509–522, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-509-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-509-2022, 2022
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During the last 20 years extreme wildfires have challenged firefighting capabilities. Several fire danger indices are routinely used by firefighting services but are not suited to forecast convective extreme wildfire behaviour at the global scale. This article proposes a new fire danger index for deep moist convection, the extreme-fire behaviour index (EFBI), based on the analysis of the vertical profiles of the atmosphere above wildfires to use along with traditional fire danger indices.
Veronika Hutter, Frank Techel, and Ross S. Purves
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3879–3897, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3879-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3879-2021, 2021
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How is avalanche danger described in public avalanche forecasts? We analyzed 6000 textual descriptions of avalanche danger in Switzerland, taking the perspective of the forecaster. Avalanche danger was described rather consistently, although the results highlight the difficulty of communicating conditions that are neither rare nor frequent, neither small nor large. The study may help to refine the ways in which avalanche danger could be communicated to the public.
Edilia Jaque Castillo, Alfonso Fernández, Rodrigo Fuentes Robles, and Carolina G. Ojeda
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3663–3678, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3663-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3663-2021, 2021
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Wildfires pose risks to lives and livelihoods in many regions of the world. Particularly in Chile's central-south region, climate change, widespread land use change, and urban growth tend to increase the likelihood of fire occurrence. Our work focused on the Concepción metropolitan area, where we developed a model using machine learning in order to map wildfire risks. We found that the interface between urban areas and forestry plantations presents the highest risks.
Alessandro Gattuso, Francesco Italiano, Giorgio Capasso, Antonino D'Alessandro, Fausto Grassa, Antonino Fabio Pisciotta, and Davide Romano
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3407–3419, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3407-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3407-2021, 2021
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Santa Barbara and Aragona are affected by mud volcanism with episodic hazardous paroxysm events. Two potentially hazardous paroxysm exposed surfaces of 0.12 and 0.20 km2 were elaborated with DSMs and with historical information on the paroxysms that occurred in the past. This paper, in the end, could be a useful tool for civil protection authorities in order to take appropriate risk mitigation measurements for exposed people and for monitoring activities.
Kathryn C. Fisher, Pascal Haegeli, and Patrick Mair
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3219–3242, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3219-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3219-2021, 2021
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Avalanche warning services publish condition reports to help backcountry recreationists make informed decisions about when and where to travel in avalanche terrain. We tested how different graphic representations of terrain information can affect users’ ability to interpret and apply the provided information. Our study shows that a combined presentation of aspect and elevation information is the most effective. These results can be used to improve avalanche risk communication products.
Jeffrey Katan and Liliana Perez
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3141–3160, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3141-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3141-2021, 2021
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Wildfires are an integral part of ecosystems worldwide, but they also pose a serious risk to human life and property. To further our understanding of wildfires and allow experimentation without recourse to live fires, this study presents an agent-based modelling approach to combine the complexity possible with physical models with the ease of computation of empirical models. Model calibration and validation show bottom-up simulation tracks the core elements of complexity of fire across scales.
Xiaowen Wang, Lin Liu, Yan Hu, Tonghua Wu, Lin Zhao, Qiao Liu, Rui Zhang, Bo Zhang, and Guoxiang Liu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2791–2810, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2791-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2791-2021, 2021
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We characterized the multi-decadal geomorphic changes of a low-angle valley glacier in the East Kunlun Mountains and assessed the detachment hazard influence. The observations reveal a slow surge-like dynamic pattern of the glacier tongue. The maximum runout distances of two endmember avalanche scenarios were presented. This study provides a reference to evaluate the runout hazards of low-angle mountain glaciers prone to detachment.
Xuguo Shi, Shaocheng Zhang, Mi Jiang, Yuanyuan Pei, Tengteng Qu, Jinhu Xu, and Chen Yang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2285–2297, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2285-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2285-2021, 2021
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We mapped the subsidence of Wuhan using Sentinel-1 synthetic aperture radar (SAR) images acquired during 2015–2019. Overall subsidence coincides with the distribution of engineered geological regions with soft soils, while the subsidence centers shifted with urban construction activities. Correlation between karst subsidence and concentrated rainfall was identified in Qingling–Jiangdi. Results indicate that interferometric SAR can be employed to routinely monitor and identify geohazards.
Mirlan Daiyrov and Chiyuki Narama
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2245–2256, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2245-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2245-2021, 2021
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In the Teskey Range of the Tien Shan (Kyrgyz Republic), four outburst flood disasters from short-lived glacial lakes in 2006, 2008, 2013, and 2014 caused severe damages in the downstream part. Short-lived glacial lakes grow rapidly and drain within a few months, due to closure and opening of an outlet ice tunnel in an ice-cored moraine complex at the glacier front. We investigated how short-lived glacial lakes store and drain water over short periods based on field survey and satellite data.
Roberto Villalobos-Herrera, Emanuele Bevacqua, Andreia F. S. Ribeiro, Graeme Auld, Laura Crocetti, Bilyana Mircheva, Minh Ha, Jakob Zscheischler, and Carlo De Michele
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1867–1885, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1867-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1867-2021, 2021
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Climate hazards may be caused by events which have multiple drivers. Here we present a method to break down climate model biases in hazard indicators down to the bias caused by each driving variable. Using simplified fire and heat stress indicators driven by temperature and relative humidity as examples, we show how multivariate indicators may have complex biases and that the relationship between driving variables is a source of bias that must be considered in climate model bias corrections.
Kerstin Wegner, Florian Haas, Tobias Heckmann, Anne Mangeney, Virginie Durand, Nicolas Villeneuve, Philippe Kowalski, Aline Peltier, and Michael Becht
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1159–1177, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1159-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1159-2021, 2021
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In mountainous regions rockfall is a common geomorphic process. We selected four study sites that feature different rock types. High-resolution terrestrial laser scanning data were acquired to measure the block size and block shape (axial ratio) of rockfall particles on the scree deposits. Laser scanning data were also used to characterize the morphology of these landforms. Our results show that hill slope and rock particle properties govern rock particle runout in a complex manner.
Eszter Szűcs, Sándor Gönczy, István Bozsó, László Bányai, Alexandru Szakacs, Csilla Szárnya, and Viktor Wesztergom
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 977–993, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-977-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-977-2021, 2021
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Sinkhole formation and post-collapse deformation in the Solotvyno salt mining area was studied where the salt dissolution due to water intrusion poses a significant risk. Based on a Sentinel-1 data set, remarkable surface deformation with a maximum rate of 5 cm/yr was revealed, and it was demonstrated that the deformation process has a linear characteristic although the mining activity was ended more than 10 years ago.
Geert Jan van Oldenborgh, Folmer Krikken, Sophie Lewis, Nicholas J. Leach, Flavio Lehner, Kate R. Saunders, Michiel van Weele, Karsten Haustein, Sihan Li, David Wallom, Sarah Sparrow, Julie Arrighi, Roop K. Singh, Maarten K. van Aalst, Sjoukje Y. Philip, Robert Vautard, and Friederike E. L. Otto
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 941–960, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-941-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-941-2021, 2021
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Southeastern Australia suffered from disastrous bushfires during the 2019/20 fire season, raising the question whether these have become more likely due to climate change. We found no attributable trend in extreme annual or monthly low precipitation but a clear shift towards more extreme heat. However, this shift is underestimated by the models. Analysing fire weather directly, we found that the chance has increased by at least 30 %, but due to the underestimation it could well be higher.
Andrew R. Schauer, Jordy Hendrikx, Karl W. Birkeland, and Cary J. Mock
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 757–774, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-757-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-757-2021, 2021
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Our research links upper atmospheric circulation patterns to a destructive and difficult-to-predict type of snow avalanche in the western United States. At each of our study sites, we find unique circulation patterns that tend to occur at the beginning of the winter season during years with major avalanche activity. We also find specific patterns that occur frequently in the days leading to major avalanche events. This work will enable practitioners to better anticipate these challenging events.
Erich Peitzsch, Jordy Hendrikx, Daniel Stahle, Gregory Pederson, Karl Birkeland, and Daniel Fagre
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 533–557, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-533-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-533-2021, 2021
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We sampled 647 trees from 12 avalanche paths to investigate large snow avalanches over the past 400 years in the northern Rocky Mountains, USA. Sizable avalanches occur approximately every 3 years across the region. Our results emphasize the importance of sample size, scale, and spatial extent when reconstructing avalanche occurrence across a region. This work can be used for infrastructure planning and avalanche forecasting operations.
Simon Horton, Moses Towell, and Pascal Haegeli
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 3551–3576, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-3551-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-3551-2020, 2020
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We investigate patterns in how avalanche forecasters characterize snow avalanche hazard with avalanche problem types. Decision tree analysis was used to investigate both physical influences based on weather and on snowpack variables and operational practices. The results highlight challenges with developing decision aids based on previous hazard assessments.
Dan K. Thompson and Kimberly Morrison
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 3439–3454, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-3439-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-3439-2020, 2020
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We describe critically low relative humidity and high wind speeds above which only documented wildfires were seen to occur and where no agricultural fires were documented in southern Canada. We then applied these thresholds to the much larger satellite record from 2002–2018 to quantify regional differences in both the rate of observed burning and the number of days with critical weather conditions to sustain a wildfire in this grassland and agricultural region.
Chuanguang Zhu, Wenhao Wu, Mahdi Motagh, Liya Zhang, Zongli Jiang, and Sichun Long
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 3399–3411, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-3399-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-3399-2020, 2020
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We investigate the contemporary ground deformation along the RLHR-HZ using Sentinel-1 data and find that the RLHR-HZ runs through two main subsidence areas. A total length of 35 km of the RLSR-HZ is affected by the two subsidence basins. Considering the previous investigation coupled with information on human activities, we conclude that the subsidence is mainly caused by extraction of groundwater and underground mining.
Negar Ghahramani, Andrew Mitchell, Nahyan M. Rana, Scott McDougall, Stephen G. Evans, and W. Andy Take
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 3425–3438, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-3425-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-3425-2020, 2020
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Tailings flows result from the breach of tailings dams. These flows contain waste products of the mineral processing operations and can travel substantial distances, causing significant loss of life, environmental damage, and economic costs. This paper establishes a new tailings-flow runout classification system, describes a new database of events that have been mapped in detail using the new system, and examines the applicability of a semi-physical area–volume relationship using the new data.
Tae-Young Kwak, Sang-Inn Woo, Choong-Ki Chung, and Joonyoung Kim
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 3343–3359, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-3343-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-3343-2020, 2020
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In this study, model tests were used to analyze the effects of rainfall intensity on the formation of the eroded zone and the occurrence of sinkholes due to groundwater infiltration through pipe defects. The model tests were conducted to simulate the actual site conditions considering the soil used around sewer pipe networks and the sewer pipe landfill standards. The groundwater level was applied to the model tests by setting three hydraulic heads based on heavy-rainfall characteristics.
Erwan Le Roux, Guillaume Evin, Nicolas Eckert, Juliette Blanchet, and Samuel Morin
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2961–2977, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2961-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2961-2020, 2020
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To minimize the risk of structure collapse due to extreme snow loads, structure standards rely on 50-year return levels of ground snow load (GSL), i.e. levels exceeded once every 50 years on average, that do not account for climate change. We study GSL data in the French Alps massifs from 1959 and 2019 and find that these 50-year return levels are decreasing with time between 900 and 4800 m of altitude, but they still exceed return levels of structure standards for half of the massifs at 1800 m.
Bettina Richter, Alec van Herwijnen, Mathias W. Rotach, and Jürg Schweizer
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2873–2888, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2873-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2873-2020, 2020
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We investigated the sensitivity of modeled snow instability to uncertainties in meteorological input, typically found in complex terrain. The formation of the weak layer was very robust due to the long dry period, indicated by a widespread avalanche problem. Once a weak layer has formed, precipitation mostly determined slab and weak layer properties and hence snow instability. When spatially assessing snow instability for avalanche forecasting, accurate precipitation patterns have to be known.
Francesca Di Giuseppe, Claudia Vitolo, Blazej Krzeminski, Christopher Barnard, Pedro Maciel, and Jesús San-Miguel
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2365–2378, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2365-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2365-2020, 2020
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Forecasting of daily fire weather indices driven by the ECMWF ensemble prediction system is shown to have a good skill up to 10 d ahead in predicting flammable conditions in most regions of the world. The availability of these forecasts through the Copernicus Emergency Management Service can extend early warnings by up to 1–2 weeks, allowing for greater proactive coordination of resource-sharing and mobilization within and across countries.
Andrea Franco, Jasper Moernaut, Barbara Schneider-Muntau, Michael Strasser, and Bernhard Gems
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2255–2279, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2255-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2255-2020, 2020
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This study highlights the use of the software Flow-3D in reproducing landslide-generated impulse waves. Due to the available data and the possibility of comparing the results with other previous works, a numerical modelling investigation on the 1958 Lituya Bay tsunami event is proposed. It is noted that the rockslide impact into the waterbody has a key role in the wave initiation and thus its propagation. The concept used in this work can be applied to prevent such phenomena in future.
Frank Techel, Kurt Winkler, Matthias Walcher, Alec van Herwijnen, and Jürg Schweizer
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1941–1953, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1941-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1941-2020, 2020
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Snow instability tests, like the extended column test (ECT), provide valuable information regarding point snow instability. A large data set of ECT – together with information on slope instability – was explored. The findings clearly show that combining information regarding propagation propensity and fracture initiation provided the best correlation with slope instability. A new four-class stability interpretation scheme is proposed for ECT results.
Silvan Leinss, Raphael Wicki, Sämi Holenstein, Simone Baffelli, and Yves Bühler
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1783–1803, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1783-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1783-2020, 2020
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To assess snow avalanche mapping with radar satellites in Switzerland, we compare 2 m resolution TerraSAR-X images, 10 m resolution Sentinel-1 images, and optical 1.5 m resolution SPOT-6 images. We found that radar satellites provide a valuable option to map at least larger avalanches, though avalanches are mapped only partially. By combining multiple orbits and polarizations from S1, we achieved mapping results of quality almost comparable to single high-resolution TerraSAR-X images.
Mercy N. Ndalila, Grant J. Williamson, Paul Fox-Hughes, Jason Sharples, and David M. J. S. Bowman
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1497–1511, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1497-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1497-2020, 2020
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We analyse the evolution of a pyrocumulonimbus (pyroCb), or fire-induced thunderstorm, during the Forcett–Dunalley fire on 4 January 2013 and relate it to the prevailing fire weather and fire severity patterns. We show that the pyroCb reached an altitude of 15 km, was associated with elevated fire weather, and formed over a severely burned area. Additionally, we show that eastern Tasmania is prone to elevated fire weather which has implications for fire weather forecasting and fire management.
Robert D. Field
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1123–1147, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1123-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1123-2020, 2020
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This paper compares fire weather indices calculated from the NASA MERRA-2 reanlaysis to those calculated from a global network of weather stations, finding that, globally, biases in reanalysis fire weather are influenced firstly by temperature and relative humidity and, in certain regions, by precipitation biases. Fire weather forecasts using short-term NASA GEOS-5 weather forecasts are skillful 2 d ahead of time. This skill decreases more quickly with longer lead times at high latitudes.
Alireza Farahmand, E. Natasha Stavros, John T. Reager, Ali Behrangi, James T. Randerson, and Brad Quayle
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1097–1106, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1097-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1097-2020, 2020
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Wildfires result in billions of dollars of losses each year. Most wildfire predictions have a 10 d lead-time. This study introduces a framework for a 1-month lead-time prediction of wildfires based on vapor pressure deficit and surface soil moisture in the US. The results show that the model can successfully predict burned area with relatively small margins of error. This is especially important for operational wildfire management such as national resource allocation.
Holt Hancock, Markus Eckerstorfer, Alexander Prokop, and Jordy Hendrikx
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 603–623, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-603-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-603-2020, 2020
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This work uses terrestrial laser scanning techniques to monitor and quantify changes to snow cornices near Longyearbyen, Svalbard, Norway, with sub-decimeter accuracy. Our findings illustrate how complex interactions between topography and meteorological conditions govern the growth, failure, and associated avalanche activity of the cornices in this location. These findings can help improve forecasting of snow-cornice-related hazards in this and other locations exposed to snow cornice hazards.
Arthur Depicker, Bernard De Baets, and Jan Marcel Baetens
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 363–376, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-363-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-363-2020, 2020
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In recent years, several valuable nature reserves in Belgium have been severely damaged by wildfires. In order to optimize risk management and prepare for a possibly increasing number of such events, the first wildfire ignition probability map is developed for Belgium, based on data that were obtained from the government and newspaper articles. We find that most ignitions occur in the provinces of Limburg and Antwerp and that most causes are of anthropogenic nature (such as military exercises).
Margherita Maggioni, Danilo Godone, Barbara Frigo, and Michele Freppaz
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 2667–2676, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-2667-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-2667-2019, 2019
Javier Elío, Giorgia Cinelli, Peter Bossew, José Luis Gutiérrez-Villanueva, Tore Tollefsen, Marc De Cort, Alessio Nogarotto, and Roberto Braga
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 2451–2464, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-2451-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-2451-2019, 2019
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The first version of the Pan-European Indoor Radon Map is presented in this article. The map has been developed using summary statistics estimated from 1.2 million samples. It represents an average radon concentration per 10 km x 10 km grid cell under the assumption that there are dwellings in the grid cell. It is a major contribution to the understanding of the exposure to ionizing radiation of Europeans and a first step towards a European radon exposure and, in the future, radon dose map.
Michele Perrotti, Piernicola Lollino, Nunzio Luciano Fazio, and Mario Parise
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 2079–2095, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-2079-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-2079-2019, 2019
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Based on stability charts proposed by Perrotti et al. (2018), preliminary assessment of stability/instability of underground quarries in soft carbonate rocks is discussed with reference to six case studies of underground artificial cavities, including three affected by sinkhole failures in the past and three in stable conditions at present. When underground quarries are suitably surveyed and mapped, a quantitative assessment of the stability conditions is possible.
Reto Sterchi, Pascal Haegeli, and Patrick Mair
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 2011–2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-2011-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-2011-2019, 2019
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Mechanized skiing operations use an established process to select skiing terrain with a low risk level. However, the relationship between appropriate skiing terrain and avalanche conditions has only received limited research attention. Our study examines this relationship numerically for the first time and shows the effects of avalanche hazard, previous skiing, and previous acceptability on different types of skiing terrain and offers the foundation to develop evidence-based decision tools.
Marco A. Perez-Flores, Luis E. Ochoa-Tinajero, and Almendra Villela y Mendoza
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 1779–1787, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1779-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1779-2019, 2019
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In this paper we present an EM geophysics method designed for shallow purposes for determining the 3-D geometry of a sinkhole. In this case we are applying the technique for the Chac-Mool sinkhole in the Yucatán Peninsula. Thanks to scuba divers we have a broad path they followed along the subterranean rivers. Our 3-D model can be correlated with those scuba diver paths. We also found hidden rivers that pass very close to the surface (less than 10 m) making these areas susceptible to collapse.
Sílvia A. Nunes, Carlos C. DaCamara, Kamil F. Turkman, Teresa J. Calado, Ricardo M. Trigo, and Maria A. A. Turkman
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 1459–1470, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1459-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1459-2019, 2019
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Portugal is recurrently affected by large wildfire events. We present a statistical model to estimate the probability that the summer burned area exceeds a given threshold. The model allows making outlooks of wildfire potential with up to 1 month in advance of the fire season. When applied to the 39-year period 1980-2018, only 1 severe (one weak) year is not anticipated as potentially severe (weak). The model will assist the fire community when planning prevention and combating fire events.
Anne Ganteaume and Renaud Barbero
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 1055–1066, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1055-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1055-2019, 2019
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Long-term georeferenced time series showed spatiotemporal variations in large fires (LF ≥ 100 ha) throughout the French Mediterranean with 21 % of the total LF burned area occurring on surface previously burned. The region was impacted up to five to six times by recurrent LFs, the east experiencing fewer but larger LFs despite fire weather conditions decreasing eastwards. The efficiency of fire management has improved but LF outbreaks during extreme weather conditions remain a major concern.
Renaud Barbero, Thomas Curt, Anne Ganteaume, Eric Maillé, Marielle Jappiot, and Adeline Bellet
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 441–454, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-441-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-441-2019, 2019
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We developed statistical models simulating the probability of large wildfires in France from the climate forcing. The models were able to reproduce both spatial and temporal variability in large wildfires across different environmental regions. The models have wide applications, including improving our understanding of the drivers of large wildfires over the historical period and providing a basis on which to estimate future changes to large wildfires from climate projections.
Reto Sterchi and Pascal Haegeli
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 269–285, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-269-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-269-2019, 2019
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We used a revealed preference approach and identified patterns in risk management decisions of mechanized skiing operations. Our results show that terrain choices of experienced guides depend on a much broader set of factors beyond just the avalanche hazard, including skiing experience or accessibility due to weather. The identified high-resolution ski run hierarchies provide new opportunities for examining professional avalanche risk management practices and developing meaningful decision aids.
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Short summary
In 2010 a sinkhole opened up in the urban area of Schmalkalden, Germany. Shear-wave reflection seismic profiles were carried out around the sinkhole to investigate the reasons for the collapse. A strike-slip fault and a fracture network were identified that serve as fluid pathways for water-leaching soluble rocks near the surface. The more complex the fault geometry and interaction between faults, the more prone an area is to sinkhole occurrence.
In 2010 a sinkhole opened up in the urban area of Schmalkalden, Germany. Shear-wave reflection...
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