Articles | Volume 14, issue 11
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-2975-2014
© Author(s) 2014. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-2975-2014
© Author(s) 2014. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Research article
| 
17 Nov 2014
Research article |
| 17 Nov 2014
Variable population exposure and distributed travel speeds in least-cost tsunami evacuation modelling
S. A. Fraser
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
GNS Science/Massey University Joint Centre for Disaster Research, Massey University (Wellington Campus), P.O. Box 756, 6140 Wellington, New Zealand
N. J. Wood
United States Geological Survey, 2130 SW 5th Avenue, Portland, OR 97201, USA
D. M. Johnston
GNS Science/Massey University Joint Centre for Disaster Research, Massey University (Wellington Campus), P.O. Box 756, 6140 Wellington, New Zealand
GNS Science, P.O. Box 30 368, 5010 Lower Hutt, New Zealand
G. S. Leonard
GNS Science, P.O. Box 30 368, 5010 Lower Hutt, New Zealand
P. D. Greening
Department of Civil, Environmental and Geomatic Engineering, University College London, Gower Street, London, WC1E 6BT, UK
T. Rossetto
Department of Civil, Environmental and Geomatic Engineering, University College London, Gower Street, London, WC1E 6BT, UK
The Earthquake and People Interaction Centre (EPICentre), University College London, Gower Street, London, WC1E 6BT, UK
Related authors
No articles found.
Pedro Doll, Shaun Robert Eaves, Ben Matthew Kennedy, Pierre-Henri Blard, Alexander Robert Lee Nichols, Graham Sloan Leonard, Dougal Bruce Townsend, Jim William Cole, Chris Edward Conway, Sacha Baldwin, Gabriel Fénisse, Laurent Zimmermann, and Bouchaïb Tibari
Geochronology, 6, 365–395, https://doi.org/10.5194/gchron-6-365-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gchron-6-365-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, we use cosmogenic-sourced 3He to determine the eruption ages of 23 lava flows at Mt Ruapehu, Aotearoa New Zealand, and we show how this method can help overcome challenges associated with traditional dating methods in young lavas. Comparison with other methods demonstrates the accuracy of our data and the method's reliability. The new eruption ages allowed us to identify periods of quasi-simultaneous activity from different volcanic vents during the last 20 000 years.
Harikesan Baskaran, Ioanna Ioannou, Tiziana Rossetto, Jonas Cels, Mathis Joffrain, Nicolas Mortegoutte, Aurelie Fallon Saint-Lo, and Catalina Spataru
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-82, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-82, 2024
Preprint under review for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
There is a global need for insuring green economy assets against natural hazard events. But their complexity and low exposure history, means the data required for vulnerability evaluation by the insurance industry is scarce. A systematic literature review is conducted in this study, to determine the suitability of current, published literature for this purpose. Knowledge gaps are charted, and a representative asset-hazard taxonomy is proposed, to guide future, quantitative research.
Jacob B. Woodard, Benjamin B. Mirus, Nathan J. Wood, Kate E. Allstadt, Benjamin A. Leshchinsky, and Matthew M. Crawford
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1–12, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Dividing landscapes into hillslopes greatly improves predictions of landslide potential across landscapes, but their scaling is often arbitrarily set and can require significant computing power to delineate. Here, we present a new computer program that can efficiently divide landscapes into meaningful slope units scaled to best capture landslide processes. The results of this work will allow an improved understanding of landslide potential and can help reduce the impacts of landslides worldwide.
Matthew W. Hayward, Emily M. Lane, Colin N. Whittaker, Graham S. Leonard, and William L. Power
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 955–971, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-955-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-955-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
In this paper, 20 explosive volcanic eruption scenarios of differing location and magnitude are simulated to investigate tsunami generation in Lake Taupō, New Zealand. A non-hydrostatic multilayer numerical scheme resolves the highly dispersive generated wavefield. Inundation, hydrographic and related hazard outputs are produced, indicating that significant inundation around the lake shore begins above 5 on the volcanic explosivity index.
Shaun R. Eaves, Andrew N. Mackintosh, Brian M. Anderson, Alice M. Doughty, Dougal B. Townsend, Chris E. Conway, Gisela Winckler, Joerg M. Schaefer, Graham S. Leonard, and Andrew T. Calvert
Clim. Past, 12, 943–960, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-943-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-943-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
Geological evidence for past changes in glacier length provides a useful source of information about pre-historic climate change. We have used glacier modelling to show that air temperature reductions of −5 to −7 °C, relative to present, are required to simulate the glacial extent in the North Island, New Zealand, during the last ice age (approx. 20000 years ago). Our results provide data to assess climate model simulations, with the aim of determining the drivers of past natural climate change.
U. Morgenstern, C. J. Daughney, G. Leonard, D. Gordon, F. M. Donath, and R. Reeves
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 803–822, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-803-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-803-2015, 2015
Related subject area
Risk Assessment, Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies, Socioeconomic and Management Aspects
Risk reduction through managed retreat? Investigating enabling conditions and assessing resettlement effects on community resilience in Metro Manila
Brief communication: Lessons learned and experiences gained from building up a global survey on societal resilience to changing droughts
Regional seismic risk assessment based on ground conditions in Uzbekistan
Unveiling transboundary challenges in river flood risk management: learning from the Ciliwung River basin
Quantitative study of storm surge risk assessment in an undeveloped coastal area of China based on deep learning and geographic information system techniques: a case study of Double Moon Bay
Multisectoral analysis of drought impacts and management responses to the 2008–2015 record drought in the Colorado Basin, Texas
Simulating multi-hazard event sets for life cycle consequence analysis
Analysis of the effects of urban micro-scale vulnerabilities on tsunami evacuation using an agent-based model – case study in the city of Iquique, Chile
Factors of influence on flood risk perceptions related to Hurricane Dorian: an assessment of heuristics, time dynamics, and accuracy of risk perceptions
Anticipating a risky future: long short-term memory (LSTM) models for spatiotemporal extrapolation of population data in areas prone to earthquakes and tsunamis in Lima, Peru
A new regionally consistent exposure database for Central Asia: population and residential buildings
Always on My Mind: Indications of Post-Traumatic Stress Disorder Among Those Affected by the 2021 Flood Event in the Ahr Valley, Germany
Study on seismic risk assessment model of water supply systems in mainland China
Mapping current and future flood exposure using a 5 m flood model and climate change projections
Brief communication: On the environmental impacts of the 2023 floods in Emilia-Romagna (Italy)
A regional-scale approach to assessing non-residential building, transportation and cropland exposure in Central Asia
Towards a global impact-based forecasting model for tropical cyclones
Identifying vulnerable populations in urban society: a case study in a flood-prone district of Wuhan, China
An assessment of potential improvements in social capital, risk awareness, and preparedness from digital technologies
Spatial accessibility of emergency medical services under inclement weather: a case study in Beijing, China
Review article: Current approaches and critical issues in multi-risk recovery planning of urban areas exposed to natural hazards
Estimating emergency costs for earthquakes and floods in Central Asia based on modelled losses
An Impact Chain-based exploration of multi-hazard vulnerability dynamics. The multi-hazard of floods and the COVID-19 pandemic in Romania
Compound flood impacts from Hurricane Sandy on New York City in climate-driven storylines
Regional-scale landslide risk assessment in Central Asia
Cost estimation for the monitoring instrumentation of landslide early warning systems
The role of response efficacy and self-efficacy in disaster preparedness actions for vulnerable households
Scientists as storytellers: the explanatory power of stories told about environmental crises
Back analysis of a building collapse under snow and rain loads in a Mediterranean area
Assessment of building damage and risk under extreme flood scenarios in Shanghai
Brief communication: Storm Daniel Flood Impact in Greece 2023: Mapping Crop and Livestock Exposure from SAR
Micro business participation in collective flood adaptation. Lessons from scenario-based analysis in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam
Mangrove ecosystem properties regulate high water levels in a river delta
Analysis of flood warning and evacuation efficiency by comparing damage and life-loss estimates with real consequences related to the São Francisco tailings dam failure in Brazil
Criteria-based visualization design for hazard maps
Low-regret climate change adaptation in coastal megacities – evaluating large-scale flood protection and small-scale rainwater detention measures for Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam
Modeling compound flood risk and risk reduction using a globally applicable framework: a pilot in the Sofala province of Mozambique
Scenario-based multi-risk assessment from existing single-hazard vulnerability models. An application to consecutive earthquakes and tsunamis in Lima, Peru
Earthquake insurance in Iran: Solvency of local insurers in light of the current market practice
Using machine learning algorithms to identify predictors of social vulnerability in the event of a hazard: Istanbul case study
Large-scale risk assessment on snow avalanche hazard in alpine regions
Probabilistic and machine learning methods for uncertainty quantification in power outage prediction due to extreme events
Public intention to participate in sustainable geohazard mitigation: an empirical study based on an extended theory of planned behavior
An assessment of short–medium-term interventions using CAESAR-Lisflood in a post-earthquake mountainous area
Review article: Design and evaluation of weather index insurance for multi-hazard resilience and food insecurity
Design and application of a multi-hazard risk rapid assessment questionnaire for hill communities in the Indian Himalayan region
Identifying the drivers of private flood precautionary measures in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam
Performance of the flood warning system in Germany in July 2021 – insights from affected residents
Differences in volcanic risk perception among Goma's population before the Nyiragongo eruption of May 2021, Virunga volcanic province (DR Congo)
Empirical tsunami fragility modelling for hierarchical damage levels
Hannes Lauer, Carmeli Marie C. Chaves, Evelyn Lorenzo, Sonia Islam, and Jörn Birkmann
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2243–2261, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2243-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2243-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
In many urban areas, people face high exposure to hazards. Resettling them to safer locations becomes a major strategy, not least because of climate change. This paper dives into the success factors of government-led resettlement in Manila and finds surprising results which challenge the usual narrative and fuel the conversation on resettlement as an adaptation strategy. Contrary to expectations, the location – whether urban or rural – of the new home is less important than safety from floods.
Marina Batalini de Macedo, Marcos Roberto Benso, Karina Simone Sass, Eduardo Mario Mendiondo, Greicelene Jesus da Silva, Pedro Gustavo Câmara da Silva, Elisabeth Shrimpton, Tanaya Sarmah, Da Huo, Michael Jacobson, Abdullah Konak, Nazmiye Balta-Ozkan, and Adelaide Cassia Nardocci
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2165–2173, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2165-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2165-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
With climate change, societies increasingly need to adapt to deal with more severe droughts and the impacts they can have on food production. To make better adaptation decisions, drought resilience indicators can be used. To build these indicators, surveys with experts can be done. However, designing surveys is a costly process that can influence how experts respond. In this communication, we aim to deal with the challenges encountered in the development of surveys to help further research.
Vakhitkhan Alikhanovich Ismailov, Sharofiddin Ismatullayevich Yodgorov, Akhror Sabriddinovich Khusomiddinov, Eldor Makhmadiyorovich Yadigarov, Bekzod Uktamovich Aktamov, and Shuhrat Bakhtiyorovich Avazov
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2133–2146, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2133-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2133-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
For the basis of seismic risk assessment, maps of seismic intensity increment and an improved map of seismic hazard have been developed, taking into account the engineering-geological conditions of the territory of Uzbekistan and the seismic characteristics of soils. For seismic risk map development, databases were created based on geographic information system platforms, allowing us to systematize and evaluate the regional distribution of information.
Harkunti Pertiwi Rahayu, Khonsa Indana Zulfa, Dewi Nurhasanah, Richard Haigh, Dilanthi Amaratunga, and In In Wahdiny
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2045–2064, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2045-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2045-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Transboundary flood risk management in the Ciliwung River basin is placed in a broader context of disaster management, environmental science, and governance. This is particularly relevant for areas of research involving the management of shared water resources, the impact of regional development on flood risk, and strategies to reduce economic losses from flooding.
Lichen Yu, Hao Qin, Shining Huang, Wei Wei, Haoyu Jiang, and Lin Mu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2003–2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2003-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2003-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This paper proposes a quantitative storm surge risk assessment method for data-deficient regions. A coupled model is used to simulate five storm surge scenarios. Deep learning is used to extract building footprints. Economic losses are calculated by combining adjusted depth–damage functions with inundation simulation results. Zoning maps illustrate risk levels based on economic losses, aiding in disaster prevention measures to reduce losses in coastal areas.
Stephen B. Ferencz, Ning Sun, Sean W. D. Turner, Brian A. Smith, and Jennie S. Rice
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1871–1896, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1871-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1871-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Drought has long posed an existential threat to society. Population growth, economic development, and the potential for more extreme and prolonged droughts due to climate change pose significant water security challenges. Better understanding the impacts and adaptive responses resulting from extreme drought can aid adaptive planning. The 2008–2015 record drought in the Colorado Basin, Texas, United States, is used as a case study to assess impacts and responses to severe drought.
Leandro Iannacone, Kenneth Otárola, Roberto Gentile, and Carmine Galasso
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1721–1740, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1721-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1721-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The paper presents a review of the available classifications for hazard interactions in a multi-hazard context, and it incorporates such classifications from a modeling perspective. The outcome is a sequential Monte Carlo approach enabling efficient simulation of multi-hazard event sets (i.e., sequences of events throughout the life cycle). These event sets can then be integrated into frameworks for the quantification of consequences for the purposes of life cycle consequence (LCCon) analysis.
Rodrigo Cienfuegos, Gonzalo Álvarez, Jorge León, Alejandro Urrutia, and Sebastián Castro
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1485–1500, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1485-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1485-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study carries out a detailed analysis of possible tsunami evacuation scenarios in the city of Iquique in Chile. Evacuation modeling and tsunami modeling are integrated, allowing for an estimation of the potential number of people that the inundation may reach under different scenarios by emulating the dynamics and behavior of the population and their decision-making regarding the starting time of the evacuation.
Laurine A. de Wolf, Peter J. Robinson, W. J. Wouter Botzen, Toon Haer, Jantsje M. Mol, and Jeffrey Czajkowski
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1303–1318, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1303-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1303-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
An understanding of flood risk perceptions may aid in improving flood risk communication. We conducted a survey among 871 coastal residents in Florida who were threatened to be flooded by Hurricane Dorian. Part of the original sample was resurveyed after Dorian failed to make landfall to investigate changes in risk perception. We find a strong influence of previous flood experience and social norms on flood risk perceptions. Furthermore, flood risk perceptions declined after the near-miss event.
Christian Geiß, Jana Maier, Emily So, Elisabeth Schoepfer, Sven Harig, Juan Camilo Gómez Zapata, and Yue Zhu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1051–1064, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1051-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1051-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We establish a model of future geospatial population distributions to quantify the number of people living in earthquake-prone and tsunami-prone areas of Lima and Callao, Peru, for the year 2035. Areas of high earthquake intensity will experience a population growth of almost 30 %. The population in the tsunami inundation area is estimated to grow by more than 60 %. Uncovering those relations can help urban planners and policymakers to develop effective risk mitigation strategies.
Chiara Scaini, Alberto Tamaro, Baurzhan Adilkhan, Satbek Sarzhanov, Vakhitkhan Ismailov, Ruslan Umaraliev, Mustafo Safarov, Vladimir Belikov, Japar Karayev, and Ettore Faga
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 929–945, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-929-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-929-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Central Asia is highly exposed to multiple hazards, including earthquakes, floods and landslides, for which risk reduction strategies are currently under development. We provide a regional-scale database of assets at risk, including population and residential buildings, based on existing information and recent data collected for each Central Asian country. The population and number of buildings are also estimated for the year 2080 to support the definition of disaster risk reduction strategies.
Marie-Luise Zenker, Philip Bubeck, and Annegret H. Thieken
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-725, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-725, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Despite the visible flood damage, mental health impacts are a growing concern. Yet, there is limited data in Germany. A survey in a heavily affected region revealed 28 % showing signs of posttraumatic stress disorder one year later. Risk factors Include gender, serious injury or illness due to flooding, and feeling left alone to cope with impacts. The study highlights the need for tailored mental health support for flood-affected populations.
Tianyang Yu, Banghua Lu, Hui Jiang, and Zhi Liu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 803–822, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-803-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-803-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
A basic database for seismic risk assessment of 720 urban water supply systems in mainland China is established. The parameters of the seismic risk curves of 720 cities are calculated. The seismic fragility curves of various facilities in the water supply system are given based on the logarithmic normal distribution model. The expected seismic loss and the expected loss rate index of 720 urban water supply systems in mainland China in the medium and long term are given.
Connor Darlington, Jonathan Raikes, Daniel Henstra, Jason Thistlethwaite, and Emma K. Raven
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 699–714, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-699-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-699-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The impacts of climate change on local floods require precise maps that clearly demarcate changes to flood exposure; however, most maps lack important considerations that reduce their utility in policy and decision-making. This article presents a new approach to identifying current and projected flood exposure using a 5 m model. The results highlight advancements in the mapping of flood exposure with implications for flood risk management.
Chiara Arrighi and Alessio Domeneghetti
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 673–679, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-673-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-673-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
In this communication, we reflect on environmental flood impacts by analysing the reported environmental consequences of the 2023 Emilia-Romagna floods. The most frequently reported damage involves water resources and water-related ecosystems. Indirect effects in time and space, intrinsic recovery capacity, cascade impacts on socio-economic systems, and the lack of established monitoring activities appear to be the most challenging aspects for future research.
Chiara Scaini, Alberto Tamaro, Baurzhan Adilkhan, Satbek Sarzhanov, Zukhritdin Ergashev, Ruslan Umaraliev, Mustafo Safarov, Vladimir Belikov, Japar Karayev, and Ettore Fagà
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 355–373, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-355-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-355-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Central Asia is prone to multiple hazards such as floods, landslides and earthquakes, which can affect a wide range of assets at risk. We develop the first regionally consistent database of assets at risk for non-residential buildings, transportation and croplands in Central Asia. The database combines global and regional data sources and country-based information and supports the development of regional-scale disaster risk reduction strategies for the Central Asia region.
Mersedeh Kooshki Forooshani, Marc van den Homberg, Kyriaki Kalimeri, Andreas Kaltenbrunner, Yelena Mejova, Leonardo Milano, Pauline Ndirangu, Daniela Paolotti, Aklilu Teklesadik, and Monica L. Turner
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 309–329, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-309-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-309-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We improve an existing impact forecasting model for the Philippines by transforming the target variable (percentage of damaged houses) to a fine grid, using only features which are globally available. We show that our two-stage model conserves the performance of the original and even has the potential to introduce savings in anticipatory action resources. Such model generalizability is important in increasing the applicability of such tools around the world.
Jia Xu, Makoto Takahashi, and Weifu Li
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 179–197, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-179-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-179-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Through the development of micro-individual social vulnerability indicators and cluster analysis, this study assessed the level of social vulnerability of 599 residents from 11 communities in the Hongshan District of Wuhan. The findings reveal three levels of social vulnerability: high, medium, and low. Quantitative assessments offer specific comparisons between distinct units, and the results indicate that different types of communities have significant differences in social vulnerability.
Tommaso Piseddu, Mathilda Englund, and Karina Barquet
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 145–161, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-145-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-145-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Contributions to social capital, risk awareness, and preparedness constitute the parameters to test applications in disaster risk management. We propose an evaluation of four of these: mobile positioning data, social media crowdsourcing, drones, and satellite imaging. The analysis grants the opportunity to investigate how different methods to evaluate surveys' results may influence final preferences. We find that the different assumptions on which these methods rely deliver diverging results.
Yuting Zhang, Kai Liu, Xiaoyong Ni, Ming Wang, Jianchun Zheng, Mengting Liu, and Dapeng Yu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 63–77, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-63-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-63-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This article is aimed at developing a method to quantify the influence of inclement weather on the accessibility of emergency medical services (EMSs) in Beijing, China, and identifying the vulnerable areas that could not get timely EMSs under inclement weather. We found that inclement weather could reduce the accessibility of EMSs by up to 40%. Furthermore, towns with lower baseline EMSs accessibility are more vulnerable when inclement weather occurs.
Soheil Mohammadi, Silvia De Angeli, Giorgio Boni, Francesca Pirlone, and Serena Cattari
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 79–107, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-79-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-79-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This paper critically reviews disaster recovery literature from a multi-risk perspective. Identified key challenges encompass the lack of approaches integrating physical reconstruction and socio-economic recovery, the neglect of multi-risk interactions, the limited exploration of recovery from a pre-disaster planning perspective, and the low consideration of disaster recovery as a non-linear process in which communities need change over time.
Emilio Berny, Carlos Avelar, Mario A. Salgado-Gálvez, and Mario Ordaz
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 53–62, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-53-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-53-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This paper presents a methodology to estimate the total emergency costs based on modelled damages for earthquakes and floods, together with the demographic and building characteristics of the study area. The methodology has been applied in five countries in central Asia, the first time that these estimates are made available for the study area and are intended to be useful for regional and local stakeholders and decision makers.
Andra-Cosmina Albulescu and Iuliana Armaș
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-5, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-5, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
This study delves into 1) compounded impacts and 2) the dynamics of vulnerability within a multi-hazard context, proposing an Impact Chain-based framework that analyses the augmentation of vulnerability. The case study refers to the flood events and the COVID-19 pandemic that affected Romania (2020–2021). The Impact Chain shows that 1) the unforseen implications of impacts, 2) wrongful action of adaptation options, and 3) inaction can set the premises for increased vulnerability.
Henrique M. D. Goulart, Irene Benito Lazaro, Linda van Garderen, Karin van der Wiel, Dewi Le Bars, Elco Koks, and Bart van den Hurk
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 29–45, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-29-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-29-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We explore how Hurricane Sandy (2012) could flood New York City under different scenarios, including climate change and internal variability. We find that sea level rise can quadruple coastal flood volumes, while changes in Sandy's landfall location can double flood volumes. Our results show the need for diverse scenarios that include climate change and internal variability and for integrating climate information into a modelling framework, offering insights for high-impact event assessments.
Francesco Caleca, Chiara Scaini, William Frodella, and Veronica Tofani
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 13–27, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-13-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-13-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Landslide risk analysis is a powerful tool because it allows us to identify where physical and economic losses could occur due to a landslide event. The purpose of our work was to provide the first regional-scale analysis of landslide risk for central Asia, and it represents an advanced step in the field of risk analysis for very large areas. Our findings show, per square kilometer, a total risk of about USD 3.9 billion and a mean risk of USD 0.6 million.
Marta Sapena, Moritz Gamperl, Marlene Kühnl, Carolina Garcia-Londoño, John Singer, and Hannes Taubenböck
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3913–3930, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3913-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3913-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
A new approach for the deployment of landslide early warning systems (LEWSs) is proposed. We combine data-driven landslide susceptibility mapping and population maps to identify exposed locations. We estimate the cost of monitoring sensors and demonstrate that LEWSs could be installed with a budget ranging from EUR 5 to EUR 41 per person in Medellín, Colombia. We provide recommendations for stakeholders and outline the challenges and opportunities for successful LEWS implementation.
Dong Qiu, Binglin Lv, Yuepeng Cui, and Zexiong Zhan
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3789–3803, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3789-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3789-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This paper divides preparedness behavior into minimal and adequate preparedness. In addition to studying the main factors that promote families' disaster preparedness, we also study the moderating effects of response efficacy and self-efficacy on preparedness actions by vulnerable families. Based on the findings of this study, policymakers can target interventions and programs that can be designed to remedy the current lack of disaster preparedness education for vulnerable families.
Jenni Barclay, Richie Robertson, and M. Teresa Armijos
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3603–3615, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3603-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3603-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Stories create avenues for sharing the meanings and social implications of scientific knowledge. We explore their value when told between scientists during a volcanic eruption. They are important vehicles for understanding how risk is generated during volcanic eruptions and create new knowledge about these interactions. Stories explore how risk is negotiated when scientific information is ambiguous or uncertain, identify cause and effect, and rationalize the emotional intensity of a crisis.
Isabelle Ousset, Guillaume Evin, Damien Raynaud, and Thierry Faug
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3509–3523, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3509-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3509-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This paper deals with an exceptional snow and rain event in a Mediterranean region of France which is usually not prone to heavy snowfall and its consequences on a particular building that collapsed completely. Independent analyses of the meteorological episode are carried out, and the response of the building to different snow and rain loads is confronted to identify the main critical factors that led to the collapse.
Jiachang Tu, Jiahong Wen, Liang Emlyn Yang, Andrea Reimuth, Stephen S. Young, Min Zhang, Luyang Wang, and Matthias Garschagen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3247–3260, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3247-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3247-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This paper evaluates the flood risk and the resulting patterns in buildings following low-probability, high-impact flood scenarios by a risk analysis chain in Shanghai. The results provide a benchmark and also a clear future for buildings with respect to flood risks in Shanghai. This study links directly to disaster risk management, e.g., the Shanghai Master Plan. We also discussed different potential adaptation options for flood risk management.
Kang He, Qing Yang, Xinyi Shen, Elias Dimitriou, Angeliki Mentzafou, Christina Papadaki, Maria Stoumboudi, and Emmanouil N. Anagnostou
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-173, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-173, 2023
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
~820 km2 of agricultural land is inundated in central Greece due to storm Daniel flood. A detailed analysis revealed that the crop most affected by the flooding was cotton; the inundated area of more than 282 km2 comprised ~30 % of the total area planted with cotton in central Greece. In terms of livestock, we estimated more than 14,000 ornithoids and 21,500 sheep and goats were affected. Consequences for agriculture and animal husbandry in Greece are expected to be severe.
Javier Revilla Diez, Roxana Leitold, Van Tran, and Matthias Garschagen
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2185, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2185, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Micro-businesses, often overlooked in adaptation research, show surprising willingness to contribute to collective adaptation despite limited finances and local support. Based on a study in Ho-Chi-Minh City in Vietnam, approximately 70 % are ready for awareness campaigns, and 39 % would provide financial support if costs were shared. These findings underscore the need for increased involvement of micro-businesses in local adaptation plans to enhance collective adaptive capacity.
Ignace Pelckmans, Jean-Philippe Belliard, Luis E. Dominguez-Granda, Cornelis Slobbe, Stijn Temmerman, and Olivier Gourgue
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3169–3183, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3169-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3169-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Mangroves are increasingly recognized as a coastal protection against extreme sea levels. Their effectiveness in doing so, however, is still poorly understood, as mangroves are typically located in tropical countries where data on mangrove vegetation and topography properties are often scarce. Through a modelling study, we identified the degree of channelization and the mangrove forest floor topography as the key properties for regulating high water levels in a tropical delta.
André Felipe Rocha Silva and Julian Cardoso Eleutério
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3095–3110, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3095-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3095-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This work evaluates the application of flood consequence models through their application in a real case related to a tailings dam failure. Furthermore, we simulated the implementation of less efficient alert systems on life-loss alleviation. The results revealed that the models represented the event well and were able to estimate the relevance of implementing efficient alert systems. They highlight that their use may be an important tool for new regulations for dam safety legislation.
Max Schneider, Fabrice Cotton, and Pia-Johanna Schweizer
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2505–2521, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2505-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2505-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Hazard maps are fundamental to earthquake risk reduction, but research is missing on how to design them. We review the visualization literature to identify evidence-based criteria for color and classification schemes for hazard maps. We implement these for the German seismic hazard map, focusing on communicating four properties of seismic hazard. Our evaluation finds that the redesigned map successfully communicates seismic hazard in Germany, improving on the baseline map for two key properties.
Leon Scheiber, Christoph Gabriel David, Mazen Hoballah Jalloul, Jan Visscher, Hong Quan Nguyen, Roxana Leitold, Javier Revilla Diez, and Torsten Schlurmann
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2333–2347, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2333-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2333-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Like many other megacities in low-elevation coastal zones, Ho Chi Minh City in southern Vietnam suffers from the convoluting impact of changing environmental stressors and rapid urbanization. This study assesses quantitative hydro-numerical results against the background of the low-regret paradigm for (1) a large-scale flood protection scheme as currently constructed and (2) the widespread implementation of small-scale rainwater detention as envisioned in the Chinese Sponge City Program.
Dirk Eilander, Anaïs Couasnon, Frederiek C. Sperna Weiland, Willem Ligtvoet, Arno Bouwman, Hessel C. Winsemius, and Philip J. Ward
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2251–2272, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2251-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2251-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This study presents a framework for assessing compound flood risk using hydrodynamic, impact, and statistical modeling. A pilot in Mozambique shows the importance of accounting for compound events in risk assessments. We also show how the framework can be used to assess the effectiveness of different risk reduction measures. As the framework is based on global datasets and is largely automated, it can easily be applied in other areas for first-order assessments of compound flood risk.
Juan Camilo Gómez Zapata, Massimiliano Pittore, Nils Brinckmann, Juan Lizarazo-Marriaga, Sergio Medina, Nicola Tarque, and Fabrice Cotton
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2203–2228, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2203-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2203-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
To investigate cumulative damage on extended building portfolios, we propose an alternative and modular method to probabilistically integrate sets of single-hazard vulnerability models that are being constantly developed by experts from various research fields to be used within a multi-risk context. We demonstrate its application by assessing the economic losses expected for the residential building stock of Lima, Peru, a megacity commonly exposed to consecutive earthquake and tsunami scenarios.
Mohsen Ghafory-Ashtiany and Hooman Motamed
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-81, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-81, 2023
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
Iranian insurers has been offering earthquake cover since 1990's. However, despite international best practices they do not still use modern methods for risk pricing and management. As such, they seem to continue accumulating seismic risk over time. This paper examines the viability of this market in Iran by comparing the local market practice with international best practices in earthquake risk pricing (catastrophe modelling) and insurance risk management (European Solvency II regime).
Oya Kalaycıoğlu, Serhat Emre Akhanlı, Emin Yahya Menteşe, Mehmet Kalaycıoğlu, and Sibel Kalaycıoğlu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2133–2156, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2133-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2133-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The associations between household characteristics and hazard-related social vulnerability in Istanbul, Türkiye, were assessed using machine learning techniques. The results indicated that less educated households with no social security and job insecurity that live in squatter houses are at a higher risk of social vulnerability. We present the findings in an open-access R Shiny web application, which can serve as a guidance for identifying the target groups in the interest of risk mitigation.
Gregor Ortner, Michael Bründl, Chahan M. Kropf, Thomas Röösli, Yves Bühler, and David N. Bresch
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2089–2110, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2089-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2089-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This paper presents a new approach to assess avalanche risk on a large scale in mountainous regions. It combines a large-scale avalanche modeling method with a state-of-the-art probabilistic risk tool. Over 40 000 individual avalanches were simulated, and a building dataset with over 13 000 single buildings was investigated. With this new method, risk hotspots can be identified and surveyed. This enables current and future risk analysis to assist decision makers in risk reduction and adaptation.
Prateek Arora and Luis Ceferino
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1665–1683, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1665-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1665-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Power outage models can help utilities manage risks for outages from hurricanes. Our article reviews the existing outage models during hurricanes and highlights their strengths and limitations. Existing models can give erroneous estimates with outage predictions larger than the number of customers, can struggle with predictions for catastrophic hurricanes, and do not adequately represent infrastructure failure's uncertainties. We suggest models for the future that can overcome these challenges.
Huige Xing, Ting Que, Yuxin Wu, Shiyu Hu, Haibo Li, Hongyang Li, Martin Skitmore, and Nima Talebian
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1529–1547, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1529-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1529-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Disaster risk reduction requires public power. The aim of this study is to investigate the factors influencing the public's intention to participate in disaster risk reduction. An empirical study was conducted using structural equation modeling data analysis methods. The findings show that public attitudes, perceptions of those around them, ability to participate, and sense of participation are important factors.
Di Wang, Ming Wang, Kai Liu, and Jun Xie
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1409–1423, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1409-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1409-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The short–medium-term intervention effect on the post-earthquake area was analysed by simulations in different scenarios. The sediment transport patterns varied in different sub-regions, and the relative effectiveness in different scenarios changed over time with a general downward trend, where the steady stage implicated the scenario with more facilities performing better in controlling sediment output. Therefore, the simulation methods could support optimal rehabilitation strategies.
Marcos Roberto Benso, Gabriela Chiquito Gesualdo, Roberto Fray Silva, Greicelene Jesus Silva, Luis Miguel Castillo Rápalo, Fabricio Alonso Richmond Navarro, Patricia Angélica Alves Marques, José Antônio Marengo, and Eduardo Mario Mendiondo
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1335–1354, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1335-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1335-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This article is about how farmers can better protect themselves from disasters like droughts, extreme temperatures, and floods. The authors suggest that one way to do this is by offering insurance contracts that cover these different types of disasters. By having this insurance, farmers can receive financial support and recover more quickly. The article elicits different ideas about how to design this type of insurance and suggests ways to make it better.
Shivani Chouhan and Mahua Mukherjee
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1267–1286, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1267-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1267-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The Himalayas are prone to multi-hazards. To minimise loss, proper planning and execution are necessary. Data collection is the basis of any risk assessment process. This enhanced survey form is easy to understand and pictorial and identifies high-risk components of any building (structural and non-structural) surrounded by multi-hazards. Its results can help to utilise the budget in a prioritised way. A SWOT (strengths, weaknesses, threats and opportunities) analysis has been performed.
Thulasi Vishwanath Harish, Nivedita Sairam, Liang Emlyn Yang, Matthias Garschagen, and Heidi Kreibich
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1125–1138, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1125-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1125-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Coastal Asian cities are becoming more vulnerable to flooding. In this study we analyse the data collected from flood-prone houses in Ho Chi Minh City to identify what motivates the households to adopt flood precautionary measures. The results revealed that educating the households about the available flood precautionary measures and communicating the flood protection measures taken by the government encourage the households to adopt measures without having to experience multiple flood events.
Annegret H. Thieken, Philip Bubeck, Anna Heidenreich, Jennifer von Keyserlingk, Lisa Dillenardt, and Antje Otto
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 973–990, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-973-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-973-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
In July 2021 intense rainfall caused devastating floods in western Europe with 184 fatalities in the German federal states of North Rhine-Westphalia (NW) and Rhineland-Palatinate (RP), calling their warning system into question. An online survey revealed that 35 % of respondents from NW and 29 % from RP did not receive any warning. Many of those who were warned did not expect severe flooding, nor did they know how to react. The study provides entry points for improving Germany's warning system.
Blaise Mafuko Nyandwi, Matthieu Kervyn, François Muhashy Habiyaremye, François Kervyn, and Caroline Michellier
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 933–953, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-933-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-933-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Risk perception involves the processes of collecting, selecting and interpreting signals about the uncertain impacts of hazards. It may contribute to improving risk communication and motivating the protective behaviour of the population living near volcanoes. Our work describes the spatial variation and factors influencing volcanic risk perception of 2204 adults of Goma exposed to Nyiragongo. It contributes to providing a case study for risk perception understanding in the Global South.
Fatemeh Jalayer, Hossein Ebrahimian, Konstantinos Trevlopoulos, and Brendon Bradley
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 909–931, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-909-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-909-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Assessing tsunami fragility and the related uncertainties is crucial in the evaluation of incurred losses. Empirical fragility modelling is based on observed tsunami intensity and damage data. Fragility curves for hierarchical damage levels are distinguished by their laminar shape; that is, the curves should not intersect. However, this condition is not satisfied automatically. We present a workflow for hierarchical fragility modelling, uncertainty propagation and fragility model selection.
Cited articles
Beyer, H.: Geospatial Modelling Environment (Version 0.7.2.0), available at: http://www.spatialecology.com/gme (last access: 8 February 2014), 2012.
Cabinet Office Government of Japan: Guideline for Tsunami Evacuation Buildings, Tsunami evacuation building guideline committee, Government of Japan Cabinet Office, Tokyo, available at: http://www.bousai.go.jp/jishin/tsunami/hinan/hinanbiru.html (last access: 23 March 2014), 2005.
Charnkol, T. and Tanaboriboon, Y.: Evacuee behaviors and factors affecting the tsunami trip generation model: a case study in Phang-Nga, Thailand, J. Adv. Transport, 40, 313–330, https://doi.org/10.1002/atr.5670400306, 2006.
Chooramun, N., Lawrence, P. J., and Galea, E. R.: An agent based evacuation model utilising hybrid space discretisation, Safety Sci., 50, 1685–1694, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ssci.2011.12.022, 2012.
Cockings, S., Martin, D., and Leung, S.: Population 24/7: building space-time specific population surface models, in: Proceedings of the GIS Research UK 18th Annual Conference GISRUK 2010, edited by: Haklay, M. M., Morley, J., and Rahemtulla, H., 14–16 April 2010, London, UK, 41–47, 2010.
Cousins, W. J.: RiskScape – development of a default assets model for Hawke's Bay, Science Report 2009/50, GNS Science, Lower Hutt, New Zealand, 2009.
Dash, N. and Gladwin, H.: Evacuation decision making and behavioral responses: individual and household, Nat. Hazards Rev., 8, 69–77, 2007.
Drabek, T.: Human System Responses to Disaster: an inventory of Sociological Findings, Springer Verlag, New York, 1986.
FEMA: Guidelines for Design of Structures for Vertical Evacuation from Tsunamis, FEMA Report P646, Prepared by the Applied Technology Council for the Federal Emergency Management Agency, Redwood City, California, 2008.
Fraser, S. A., Leonard, G. S., Murakami, H., and Matsuo, I.: Tsunami vertical evacuation buildings – lessons for international preparedness following the 2011 great east Japan tsunami, J. Disaster Res., 7, 446–457, 2012.
Fraser, S. A., Johnston, D. M., and Leonard, G. S.: Intended evacuation behaviour in a local earthquake and tsunami at Napier, New Zealand, Science Report 2013/26, GNS Science, Lower Hutt, New Zealand, 2013.
Fraser, S. A., Power, W. L., Wang, X., Wallace, L. M., Mueller, C., and Johnston, D. M.: Tsunami inundation in Napier, New Zealand, due to local earthquake sources, Nat. Hazards, 70, 415–445, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-013-0820-x, 2014.
González-Riancho, P., Aguirre-Ayerbe, I., Aniel-Quiroga, I., Abad, S., González, M., Larreynaga, J., Gavidia, F., Gutiérrez, O. Q., Álvarez-Gómez, J. A., and Medina, R.: Tsunami evacuation modelling as a tool for risk reduction: application to the coastal area of El Salvador, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 13, 3249–3270, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-3249-2013, 2013.
Goto, Y., Affan, M., Nurdin, Y., and Yuliana, D. K.: Tsunami evacuation simulation for disaster education and city planning, J. Disaster Res., 7, 92–101, 2012.
Graehl, N. and Dengler, L.: Using a GIS to Model Tsunami Evacuation Times for the Community of Fairhaven, California, AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts D1324, San Francisco, California, USA, 2008.
Gregg, C. E., Houghton, B. F., Paton, D., Lachman, R., Lachman, J., Johnston, D. M., and Wongbusarakum, S.: Natural Warning Signs of Tsunamis: Human Sensory Experience and Response to the 2004 Great Sumatra Earthquake and Tsunami in Thailand, Earthq. Spectra, 22, 671–691, https://doi.org/10.1193/1.2206791, 2006.
Imamura, F., Muhari, A., Mas, E., Pradono, M. H., Post, J., and Sugimoto, M.: Tsunami disaster mitigation by integrating comprehensive countermeasures in Padang City, Indonesia, Disaster Res., 7, 48–64, 2012.
Johnston, D. M., Paton, D., Crawford, G. L., Ronan, K. R., Houghton, B. F., and Borgelt, P.: Measuring tsunami preparedness in coastal Washington, United States, Nat. Hazards, 35, 173–184, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-004-2419-8, 2005.
Johnstone, W. M.: Life Safety Modelling Framework and Performance Measures to Assess Community Systems: Application to Tsunami Emergency Preparedness and Dam Safety Management, Ph.D. thesis, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, Canada, 2012.
Klepeis, N. E., Nelson, W. C., Ott, W. R., Robinson, J. P., Tsang, A. M., Switzer, P., Behar, J. V., Hern, S. C., and Engelmann, W. H.: The National Human Activity Pattern Survey (NHAPS): a resource for assessing exposure to environmental pollutants, J. Expo. Anal. Env. Epid., 11, 231–252, https://doi.org/10.1038/sj.jea.7500165, 2001.
Knoblauch, R. L., Pietrucha, M. T., and Nitzburg, M.: Field studies of pedestrian walking speed and start-up time, Transport. Res. Rec., 1538, 27–38, https://doi.org/10.3141/1538-04, 1996.
Kobayashi, T., Medina, R. M., and Cova, T. J.: Visualizing diurnal population change in urban areas for emergency management, Prof. Geogr., 63, 113–130, https://doi.org/10.1080/00330124.2010.533565, 2011.
Lamb, S. M. and Walton, D. K.: Travel behaviours following the 2007 Gisborne earthquake: evidence for the use of simulation in earthquake research, Int. J. Emergency Manage., 8, 42–59, https://doi.org/10.1504/IJEM.2011.040397, 2011.
Leech, J. A., Nelson, W. C., Burnett, R. T., Aaron, S., and Raizenne, M. E.: It's about time: a comparison of Canadian and American time-activity patterns, J. Expo. Anal. Env. Epid., 12, 427–432, https://doi.org/10.1038/sj.jea.7500244, 2002.
Lindell, M. K. and Perry, R. W.: Behavioral Foundations of Community Emergency Planning, Hemisphere Publishing Corporation, Washington, D.C., USA, 1992.
Lindell, M. K. and Perry, R. W.: The protective action decision model: theoretical modifications and additional evidence, Risk Anal., 32, 616–632, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.2011.01647.x, 2012.
Lindell, M. K. and Prater, C. S.: Tsunami Preparedness on the Oregon and Washington Coast: recommendations for research, Nat. Hazards Rev., 11, 69–81, https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)1527-6988(2010)11:2(69), 2010.
Lindell, M. K., Prater, C. S., Perry, R. W., and Wu, J. Y.: EMBLEM: An Empirically Based Large-Scale Evacuation Time Estimate Model, Report, Hazard Reduction & Recovery Center, Texas A & M University, College Station, Texas, 2002.
Lindell, M. K., Kang, J. E., and Prater, C. S.: The logistics of household hurricane evacuation, Nat. Hazards, 58, 1093–1109, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-011-9715-x, 2011.
Liu, Y., Hatayama, M., and Okada, N.: Development of an Adaptive Evacuation Route Algorithm under Flood Disaster, Annuals of the Disaster Prevention Research Institute., 49, 189–195, 2006.
Liu, Y., Okada, N., Shen, D., and Li, S.: Agent-based flood evacuation simulation of life – threatening conditions using vitae system model, J. Nat. Disaster Sci., 31, 33–41, 2009.
Mas, E., Suppasri, A., Imamura, F., and Koshimura, S.: Agent-based Simulation of the 2011 great east Japan earthquake/tsunami evacuation: an integrated model of tsunami inundation and evacuation, J. Nat. Disaster Sci., 34, 41–57, 2012.
Ministry for the Environment: New Zealand Land Cover Database version 2, available at: https://lris.scinfo.org.nz/layer/401-lcdb-v33-land-cover-database-version-33/ (last access: 17 March 2012), 2009.
Ministry of Economic Development: International Visitor Survey Online Database, available at: http://www.med.govt.nz/sectors-industries/tourism/tourism-research-data/international-visitor-survey/online-database (last access: 18 August 2013), 2013a.
Ministry of Economic Development: Domestic Travel Survey Online Database, available at: http://www.med.govt.nz/sectors-industries/tourism/tourism-research-data/domestic-tourism/domestic-travel-survey-online-database (last access: 18 August 2013), 2013b.
Ministry of Education: Directory of Schools – as at 01/08/2012, available at: http://www.minedu.govt.nz/Parents/AllAges/SchoolSearch.aspx (last access: 8 October 2013), 2012a.
Ministry of Education: Early Childhood Education (ECE) Services Listing (updated at 28 September 2012), available at: http://www.minedu.govt.nz/Parents/AllAges/ECEListing.aspx (last access: 8 October 2013), 2012b.
Murakami, H. and Kashiwabara, K.: Travel Means for Tsunami Evacuation in the 2011 Tohoku Pacific Ocean Earthquake – Questionnaire Survey in Natori City, in: Proceedings of the Annual Conference of the Institute of Social Safety Science, 29, 11–12 November 2011, Shizuoka, Japan, 67–70, 2011.
Napier City Council: Statistics: Employment, available at: http://www.napier.govt.nz/our-council/statistics/employment/, last access: 7 November 2013.
Napier Kindergartens: Our Kindergartens, available at: http://www.napierkindergartens.co.nz/Our+Kindergartens, last access: 3 September 2012.
Okumura, Y., Harada, K., and Kawata, Y.: Evacuation Behavior in the 29 September 2009 Samoa Islands Region Earthquake Tsunami, J. Earthq. Tsunami, 05, 217–229, https://doi.org/10.1142/S179343111100108X, 2011.
Park, S., van de Lindt, J. W., Gupta, R., and Cox, D. T.: Method to determine the locations of tsunami vertical evacuation shelters, Nat. Hazards, 63, 891–908, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-012-0196-3, 2012.
Post, J., Wegscheider, S., Mück, M., Zosseder, K., Kiefl, R., Steinmetz, T., and Strunz, G.: Assessment of human immediate response capability related to tsunami threats in Indonesia at a sub-national scale, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 9, 1075–1086, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-9-1075-2009, 2009.
Power, W. L.: Review of Tsunami Hazard in New Zealand (2013 Update), Consultancy Report 2013/131, GNS Science, Lower Hutt, New Zealand, 2013.
Purser, D.: {Comparisons of evacuation efficiency and pre-travel activity times in response to a sounder and two different voice alarms messages, in: Pedestrian and Evacuation Dynamics 2008, edited by: Klingsch, W. W. F., Rogsch, C., Schadschneider, A., and Schreckenberg, M., Springer-Verlag, Berlin, Heidelberg, 121–134, 2010.
Revi, A. and Singh, A. K.: Cyclone and storm surge, pedestrian evacuation and emergency response in India, in: Pedestrian and Evacuation Dynamics 2006, 1984, Springer-Verlag, Berlin, Heidelberg, 2006.
Scheer, S. J., Gardi, A., Guillande, R., Eftichidis, G., Varela, V., De Vanssay, B., and Colbeau-Justin, L.: Handbook of Tsunami Evacuation Planning, SCHEMA Specific Targeted Research Project 030963, European Commission Joint Research Centre, Institute for the Protection and Security of the Citizen, Ispra, Italy, https://doi.org/10.2788/34292, 2011.
Southworth, F.: Regional Evacuation Modelling: a State-of-the-Art-Review, ORNL/TM 11740, Centre for Transportation Analysis, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tennessee, USA, 1991.
Statistics New Zealand: 2006 Census Data, available at: http://www.stats.govt.nz/Census/2006CensusHomePage.aspx (last access: 3 September 2012), 2006.
Statistics New Zealand: Subnational Population Projections: 2006 (base)–2031 (October 2012 update), available at: http://www.stats.govt.nz/browse_for_stats/population/estimates_and_projections/SubnationalPopulationProjections_MR0631UpdateOct12.aspx (last access: 24 November 2012), 2012a.
Statistics New Zealand: Territorial Authority (TA) by Total Accommodation: April 2012, available at: http://www.stats.govt.nz/browse_for_stats/industry_sectors/accommodation/accommodation-pivot-tables.aspx (last access: 10 August 2012), 2012b.
Statistics New Zealand: Accommodation pivot tables}, available at: http://www.stats.govt.nz/browse_for_stats/industry_sectors/accommodation/accommodation-pivot-tables.aspx (last access: 10 August 2012), 2012c.
Sugimoto, T., Murakami, H., Kozuki, Y., and Nishikawa, K.: A human damage prediction method for tsunami disasters incorporating evacuation activities, Nat. Hazards, 29, 585–600, 2003.
Suzuki, T. and Imamura, F.: Simulation model of the evacuation from a tsunami in consdieration of the resident consciousness and behaviour, Japan Soc. Nat. Disaster Sci., 23, 521–538, 2005.
Tobler, W.: Three presentations on geographical analysis and modelling, Technical Report 93-1, National Center for Geographic Information and Analysis, University of California, Santa Barbara, 1993.
Tweedie, S. W., Rowland, J. R., Walsh, S. J., Rhoten, R. P., and Hagle, P. I.: A methodology for estimating emergency evacuation times, Soc. Sci. J., 23, 189–204, 1986.
Urbanik, T., Desrosiers, A., Lindell, M. K., and Schuller, C.: An Analysis of Techniques for Estimating Evacuation Times for Emergency Planning Zones, NUREG CR-1745, US Nuclear Regulatory Commission, Washington, D.C., 1980.
Wood, N. J. and Schmidtlein, M. C.: Anisotropic path modeling to assess pedestrian-evacuation potential from Cascadia-related tsunamis in the US Pacific Northwest, Nat. Hazards, 62, 275–300, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-011-9994-2, 2012.
Wood, N. J. and Schmidtlein, M. C.: Community variations in population exposure to near-field tsunami hazards as a function of pedestrian travel time to safety, Nat. Hazards, 65, 1603–1628, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-012-0434-8, 2013.
Yagi, S. and Hasemi, Y.: Requirements and verification methodology for the design performance of tsunami-hinan buildings (temporary tsunami refuge building), J. Disaster Res., 5, 591–600, 2010.
Yun, N.-Y. and Hamada, M.: Evacuation Behaviors in the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake, J. Disaster Res., 7, 458–467, 2012.
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint