Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-159
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-159
04 Sep 2024
 | 04 Sep 2024
Status: a revised version of this preprint is currently under review for the journal NHESS.

Enhancement of state response capability and famine mitigation: A comparative analysis of two drought events in northern China during the Ming dynasty

Fangyu Tian, Yun Su, Xudong Chen, and Le Tao

Abstract. Studying social impacts and responses to historical extreme climate events can offer valuable insights into coping with major disaster events and adapting to climate change better. This paper developed a model of the processes and responses to extreme drought-induced famines in ancient China. Based on this, the study explored the differences in famine causation and response effectiveness between Chenghua Drought (1483–1486 CE) and Wanli Drought (1585–1588 CE). The findings are as follows: (1) By the time of Wanli Drought, the increase in land reclamation and introduction of American crops had enhanced societal defence, preventing many drought-affected counties from experiencing famine. Even in cases where famines did occur, their severity was lower than during the Chenghua Drought. (2) State emergency measures, including exemption and relief, proved effective in mitigating famines. The stronger finance and economy during the Wanli Drought enabled more robust relief efforts, resulting in lower famine severity. (3) Famine response capabilities varied regionally. Shandong, Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei demonstrated strong defensive capabilities and effective state emergency responses, while Shanxi had weaker defensive abilities, making it more vulnerable to famine. The defensive capabilities in Henan, Shaanxi, Gansu, and Ningxia showed significant improvement.

Publisher's note: Copernicus Publications remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims made in the text, published maps, institutional affiliations, or any other geographical representation in this preprint. The responsibility to include appropriate place names lies with the authors.
Fangyu Tian, Yun Su, Xudong Chen, and Le Tao

Status: final response (author comments only)

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on nhess-2024-159', Samar Momin, 25 Sep 2024
    • AC1: 'Reply on RC1', Fangyu Tian, 14 Oct 2024
  • RC2: 'Comment on nhess-2024-159', Anonymous Referee #2, 07 Oct 2024
    • AC2: 'Reply on RC2', Fangyu Tian, 14 Oct 2024
  • RC3: 'Comment on nhess-2024-159', Anonymous Referee #3, 15 Oct 2024
    • AC3: 'Reply on RC3', Fangyu Tian, 20 Oct 2024
  • RC4: 'Comment on nhess-2024-159', Anonymous Referee #3, 15 Oct 2024
    • AC3: 'Reply on RC3', Fangyu Tian, 20 Oct 2024
  • RC5: 'Comment on nhess-2024-159', Anonymous Referee #3, 15 Oct 2024
    • AC3: 'Reply on RC3', Fangyu Tian, 20 Oct 2024
  • RC6: 'Comment on nhess-2024-159', Anonymous Referee #3, 15 Oct 2024
    • AC3: 'Reply on RC3', Fangyu Tian, 20 Oct 2024
Fangyu Tian, Yun Su, Xudong Chen, and Le Tao
Fangyu Tian, Yun Su, Xudong Chen, and Le Tao

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Short summary
This study developed a model of extreme drought-induced famine processes and response mechanisms in ancient China. Spatial distribution of drought and famine during the Chenghua Drought and the Wanli Drought was constructed. By categorizing drought-affected counties into three types, a comparative analysis of the differences in famine severity and response effectiveness between the Chenghua and Wanli droughts was conducted.
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