Articles | Volume 14, issue 7
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-1761-2014
© Author(s) 2014. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-1761-2014
© Author(s) 2014. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Research article
| 
16 Jul 2014
Research article |
| 16 Jul 2014
Soil erosion in an avalanche release site (Valle d'Aosta: Italy): towards a winter factor for RUSLE in the Alps
S. Stanchi
University of Turin, Department of Agriculture, Forest and Food Sciences (DISAFA), Largo Braccini 2, Grugliasco, TO 10095, Italy
University of Turin, NATRISK, Research Centre on Natural Risks in Mountain and Hilly Environments, Largo Braccini 2, Grugliasco, TO 10095, Italy
M. Freppaz
University of Turin, Department of Agriculture, Forest and Food Sciences (DISAFA), Largo Braccini 2, Grugliasco, TO 10095, Italy
University of Turin, NATRISK, Research Centre on Natural Risks in Mountain and Hilly Environments, Largo Braccini 2, Grugliasco, TO 10095, Italy
E. Ceaglio
Fondazione Montagna Sicura – Montagne Sûre, Villa Cameron, Località Villard de la Palud, 1, 11013 Courmayeur (AO), Italy
M. Maggioni
University of Turin, Department of Agriculture, Forest and Food Sciences (DISAFA), Largo Braccini 2, Grugliasco, TO 10095, Italy
University of Turin, NATRISK, Research Centre on Natural Risks in Mountain and Hilly Environments, Largo Braccini 2, Grugliasco, TO 10095, Italy
K. Meusburger
Environmental Geosciences, University of Basel, Bernoullistr. 30, 4056 Basel, Switzerland
C. Alewell
Environmental Geosciences, University of Basel, Bernoullistr. 30, 4056 Basel, Switzerland
E. Zanini
University of Turin, Department of Agriculture, Forest and Food Sciences (DISAFA), Largo Braccini 2, Grugliasco, TO 10095, Italy
University of Turin, NATRISK, Research Centre on Natural Risks in Mountain and Hilly Environments, Largo Braccini 2, Grugliasco, TO 10095, Italy
Related authors
S. Stanchi, G. Falsone, and E. Bonifacio
Solid Earth, 6, 403–414, https://doi.org/10.5194/se-6-403-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/se-6-403-2015, 2015
Gerald Dicen, Floriane Guillevic, Surya Gupta, Pierre-Alexis Chaboche, Katrin Meusburger, Pierre Sabatier, Olivier Evrard, and Christine Alewell
Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2024-509, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2024-509, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for ESSD
Short summary
Short summary
Fallout radionuclides such as 137Cs and 239+240Pu are considered as critical tools in various environmental research. Here, we compiled reference soil data on these fallout radionuclides from the literature to build a comprehensive database. Using this database, we determined the distribution and sources of 137Cs and 239+240Pu. We also demonstrated how the database can be used to identify the environmental factors that influence their distribution using a machine-learning algorithm.
Katrin Meusburger, Paolo Porto, Judith Kobler Waldis, and Christine Alewell
SOIL, 9, 399–409, https://doi.org/10.5194/soil-9-399-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/soil-9-399-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Quantifying soil redistribution rates is a global challenge. Radiogenic tracers such as plutonium, namely 239+240Pu, released to the atmosphere by atmospheric bomb testing in the 1960s are promising tools to quantify soil redistribution. Direct validation of 239+240Pu as soil redistribution is, however, still missing. Here, we used a unique sediment yield time series in southern Italy, reaching back to the initial fallout of 239+240Pu to verify 239+240Pu as a soil redistribution tracer.
Pedro V. G. Batista, Peter Fiener, Simon Scheper, and Christine Alewell
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 3753–3770, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-3753-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-3753-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Patchy agricultural landscapes have a large number of small fields, which are separated by linear features such as roads and field borders. When eroded sediments are transported out of the agricultural fields by surface runoff, these features can influence sediment connectivity. By use of measured data and a simulation model, we demonstrate how a dense road network (and its drainage system) facilitates sediment transport from fields to water courses in a patchy Swiss agricultural catchment.
Lena Wohlgemuth, Pasi Rautio, Bernd Ahrends, Alexander Russ, Lars Vesterdal, Peter Waldner, Volkmar Timmermann, Nadine Eickenscheidt, Alfred Fürst, Martin Greve, Peter Roskams, Anne Thimonier, Manuel Nicolas, Anna Kowalska, Morten Ingerslev, Päivi Merilä, Sue Benham, Carmen Iacoban, Günter Hoch, Christine Alewell, and Martin Jiskra
Biogeosciences, 19, 1335–1353, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-1335-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-1335-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Gaseous mercury is present in the atmosphere all over the globe. During the growing season, plants take up mercury from the air in a similar way as CO2. We investigated which factors impact this vegetational mercury uptake by analyzing a large dataset of leaf mercury uptake rates of trees in Europe. As a result, we conclude that mercury uptake is foremost controlled by tree-intrinsic traits like physiological activity but also by climatic factors like dry conditions in the air and in soils.
Lauren Zweifel, Maxim Samarin, Katrin Meusburger, and Christine Alewell
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3421–3437, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3421-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3421-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Mountainous grassland areas can be severely affected by soil erosion, such as by shallow landslides. With an automated mapping approach we are able to locate shallow-landslide sites on aerial images for 10 different study sites across Swiss mountain regions covering a total of 315 km2. Using a statistical model we identify important explanatory variables for shallow-landslide occurrence for the individual sites as well as across all regions, which highlight slope, aspect and terrain roughness.
Maral Khodadadi, Christine Alewell, Mohammad Mirzaei, Ehssan Ehssan-Malahat, Farrokh Asadzadeh, Peter Strauss, and Katrin Meusburger
SOIL Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/soil-2021-2, https://doi.org/10.5194/soil-2021-2, 2021
Revised manuscript not accepted
Short summary
Short summary
Forest soils store carbon and therefore play an important role in mitigating climate change impacts. Yet again, deforestation for farming and grazing purposes has grown rapidly over the last decades. Thus, its impacts on soil erosion and soil quality should be understood in order to adopt sustainable management measures. The results of this study indicated that deforestation can prompt soil loss by multiple orders of magnitude and deteriorate the soil quality in both topsoil and subsoil.
Claudia Mignani, Jörg Wieder, Michael A. Sprenger, Zamin A. Kanji, Jan Henneberger, Christine Alewell, and Franz Conen
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 657–664, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-657-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-657-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Most precipitation above land starts with ice in clouds. It is promoted by extremely rare particles. Some ice-nucleating particles (INPs) cause cloud droplets to already freeze above −15°C, a temperature at which many clouds begin to snow. We found that the abundance of such INPs among other particles of similar size is highest in precipitating air masses and lowest when air carries desert dust. This brings us closer to understanding the interactions between land, clouds, and precipitation.
Lena Wohlgemuth, Stefan Osterwalder, Carl Joseph, Ansgar Kahmen, Günter Hoch, Christine Alewell, and Martin Jiskra
Biogeosciences, 17, 6441–6456, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-6441-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-6441-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Mercury uptake by trees from the air represents an important but poorly quantified pathway in the global mercury cycle. We determined mercury uptake fluxes by leaves and needles at 10 European forests which were 4 times larger than mercury deposition via rainfall. The amount of mercury taken up by leaves and needles depends on their age and growing height on the tree. Scaling up our measurements to the forest area of Europe, we estimate that each year 20 t of mercury is taken up by trees.
Miriam Groß-Schmölders, Pascal von Sengbusch, Jan Paul Krüger, Kristy Klein, Axel Birkholz, Jens Leifeld, and Christine Alewell
SOIL, 6, 299–313, https://doi.org/10.5194/soil-6-299-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/soil-6-299-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Degradation turns peatlands into a source of CO2. There is no cost- or time-efficient method available for indicating peatland hydrology or the success of restoration. We found that 15N values have a clear link to microbial communities and degradation. We identified trends in natural, drained and rewetted conditions and concluded that 15N depth profiles can act as a reliable and efficient tool for obtaining information on current hydrology, restoration success and drainage history.
Pranav Hirave, Guido L. B. Wiesenberg, Axel Birkholz, and Christine Alewell
Biogeosciences, 17, 2169–2180, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-2169-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-2169-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Sediment input into water bodies is a prominent threat to freshwater ecosystems. We tested the stability of tracers employed in freshwater sediment tracing based on compound-specific isotope analysis during early degradation in soil. While bulk δ13C values showed no stability, δ13C values of plant-derived fatty acids and n-alkanes were stably transferred to the soil without soil particle size dependency after an early degradation in organic horizons, thus indicating their suitability as tracers.
Margherita Maggioni, Danilo Godone, Barbara Frigo, and Michele Freppaz
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 2667–2676, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-2667-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-2667-2019, 2019
Marlène Lavrieux, Axel Birkholz, Katrin Meusburger, Guido L. B. Wiesenberg, Adrian Gilli, Christian Stamm, and Christine Alewell
Biogeosciences, 16, 2131–2146, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-2131-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-2131-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
A fingerprinting approach using compound-specific stable isotopes was applied to a lake sediment core to reconstruct erosion processes over the past 150 years in a Swiss catchment. Even though the reconstruction of land use and eutrophication history was successful, the observation of comparatively low δ13C values of plant-derived fatty acids in the sediment suggests their alteration within the lake. Thus, their use as a tool for source attribution in sediment cores needs further investigation.
Claudia Mignani, Jessie M. Creamean, Lukas Zimmermann, Christine Alewell, and Franz Conen
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 877–886, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-877-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-877-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
A snow crystal can be generated from an ice nucleating particle or from an ice splinter. In this study we made use of the fact that snow crystals with a particular shape (dendrites) grow within a narrow temperature range (−12 to −17 °C) and can be analysed individually for the presence of an ice nucleating particle. Our direct approach revealed that only one in eight crystals contained such a particle and was of primary origin. The other crystals must have grown from ice splinters.
Laura Arata, Katrin Meusburger, Alexandra Bürge, Markus Zehringer, Michael E. Ketterer, Lionel Mabit, and Christine Alewell
SOIL, 3, 113–122, https://doi.org/10.5194/soil-3-113-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/soil-3-113-2017, 2017
Emiliano Stopelli, Franz Conen, Caroline Guilbaud, Jakob Zopfi, Christine Alewell, and Cindy E. Morris
Biogeosciences, 14, 1189–1196, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-1189-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-1189-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Based on the analysis of precipitation collected at high altitude, this study provides a relevant advancement in the assessment of the major factors responsible for the abundance and variability of airborne bacterial cells and Pseudomonas syringae in relation to ice nucleators. This is of prime importance to obtain a better understanding of the impact of ice-nucleation-active organisms on the development of precipitation and to determine the dispersal potential of airborne microorganisms.
Simon Schmidt, Christine Alewell, Panos Panagos, and Katrin Meusburger
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 4359–4373, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-4359-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-4359-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
We present novel research on the seasonal dynamics of the impact of rainfall (R-factor) on the mobilization of topsoil as soil erosion by water for Switzerland. A modeling approach was chosen that enables the dynamical mapping of the R-factor. Based on the maps and modeling results, we could investigate the spatial and temporal distribution of that factor, which is high for Switzerland. With these results, agronomists can introduce selective erosion control measures.
Emiliano Stopelli, Franz Conen, Cindy E. Morris, Erik Herrmann, Stephan Henne, Martin Steinbacher, and Christine Alewell
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 8341–8351, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-8341-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-8341-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
Knowing the variability of ice nucleating particles (INPs) helps determining their role in the formation of precipitation. Here we describe and predict the concentrations of INPs active at −8 °C in precipitation samples collected at Jungfraujoch (CH, 3580 m a.s.l.). A high abundance of these INPs can be expected whenever a coincidence of high wind speed and first precipitation from an air mass occurs. This expands the set of conditions where such INPs could affect the onset of precipitation.
Christine Alewell, Axel Birkholz, Katrin Meusburger, Yael Schindler Wildhaber, and Lionel Mabit
Biogeosciences, 13, 1587–1596, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-1587-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-1587-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
Origin of suspended sediments in rivers is of crucial importance for optimization of catchment management. Sediment source attribution to a lowland river in central Switzerland with compound specific stable isotopes analysis (CSIA) indicated that 65 % of the suspended sediments originated from agricultural land during base flow, while forest was the dominant source during high flow. We achieved significant differences in CSIA signature from land uses dominated by C3 plant cultivation.
S. Osterwalder, J. Fritsche, C. Alewell, M. Schmutz, M. B. Nilsson, G. Jocher, J. Sommar, J. Rinne, and K. Bishop
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 9, 509–524, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-9-509-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-9-509-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
Human activities have increased mercury (Hg) cycling between land and atmosphere. To define landscapes as sinks or sources of Hg we have developed an advanced REA system for long-term measurements of gaseous elemental Hg exchange. It was tested in two contrasting environments: above Basel, Switzerland, and a peatland in Sweden. Both landscapes showed net Hg emission (15 and 3 ng m−2 h−1, respectively). The novel system will help to advance our understanding of Hg exchange on an ecosystem scale.
J. P. Krüger, J. Leifeld, S. Glatzel, S. Szidat, and C. Alewell
Biogeosciences, 12, 2861–2871, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-2861-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-2861-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
Biogeochemical soil parameters are studied to detect peatland degradation along a land use gradient (intensive, extensive, near-natural). Stable carbon isotopes, radiocarbon ages and ash content confirm peat growth in the near-natural bog but also indicate previous degradation. When the bog is managed extensively or intensively as grassland, all parameters indicate degradation and substantial C loss of the order of 18.8 to 42.9 kg C m-2.
S. Stanchi, G. Falsone, and E. Bonifacio
Solid Earth, 6, 403–414, https://doi.org/10.5194/se-6-403-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/se-6-403-2015, 2015
K. Meusburger, G. Leitinger, L. Mabit, M. H. Mueller, A. Walter, and C. Alewell
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 3763–3775, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-3763-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-3763-2014, 2014
J. P. Krüger, J. Leifeld, and C. Alewell
Biogeosciences, 11, 3369–3380, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-3369-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-3369-2014, 2014
E. Stopelli, F. Conen, L. Zimmermann, C. Alewell, and C. E. Morris
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 7, 129–134, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-7-129-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-7-129-2014, 2014
K. Meusburger, L. Mabit, J.-H. Park, T. Sandor, and C. Alewell
Biogeosciences, 10, 5627–5638, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-5627-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-5627-2013, 2013
K. Meusburger, G. Leitinger, L. Mabit, M. H. Mueller, and C. Alewell
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hessd-10-9505-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hessd-10-9505-2013, 2013
Preprint withdrawn
M. H. Mueller, R. Weingartner, and C. Alewell
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 1661–1679, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-1661-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-1661-2013, 2013
R. Balestrini, C. Arese, M. Freppaz, and A. Buffagni
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 989–1001, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-989-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-989-2013, 2013
Related subject area
Other Hazards (e.g., Glacial and Snow Hazards, Karst, Wildfires Hazards, and Medical Geo-Hazards)
A quantitative module of avalanche hazard – comparing forecaster assessments of storm and persistent slab avalanche problems with information derived from distributed snowpack simulations
Modelling current and future forest fire susceptibility in north-eastern Germany
The effect of propagation saw test geometries on critical cut length
Statistical calibration of probabilistic medium-range Fire Weather Index forecasts in Europe
Glide-snow avalanches: a mechanical, threshold-based release area model
Improving fire severity prediction in south-eastern Australia using vegetation-specific information
Causes, consequences and implications of the 2023 landslide-induced Lake Rasac GLOF, Cordillera Huayhuash, Peru
Review article: A scoping review of human factors in avalanche decision-making
Development of operational decision support tools for mechanized ski guiding using avalanche terrain modelling, GPS tracking, and machine learning
How hard do avalanche practitioners tap during snow stability tests?
A large-scale validation of snowpack simulations in support of avalanche forecasting focusing on critical layers
Assessing the performance and explainability of an avalanche danger forecast model
A glacial lake outburst flood risk assessment for the Phochhu river basin, Bhutan
The Avalanche Terrain Exposure Scale (ATES) v.2
AutoATES v2.0: Automated Avalanche Terrain Exposure Scale mapping
Modelling the vulnerability of urban settings to wildland–urban interface fires in Chile
Modeling of indoor 222Rn in data-scarce regions: an interactive dashboard approach for Bogotá, Colombia
A regional early warning for slushflow hazard
A new approach for drought index adjustment to clay-shrinkage-induced subsidence over France: advantages of the interactive leaf area index
Automated Avalanche Terrain Exposure Scale (ATES) mapping – local validation and optimization in western Canada
An Efficient Method to Simulate Wildfire Propagation Using Irregular Grids
Improving the fire weather index system for peatlands using peat-specific hydrological input data
Brief communication: The Lahaina Fire disaster – how models can be used to understand and predict wildfires
Prediction of natural dry-snow avalanche activity using physics-based snowpack simulations
Early warning system for ice collapses and river blockages in the Sedongpu Valley, southeastern Tibetan Plateau
Fire risk modeling: an integrated and data-driven approach applied to Sicily
Avalanche size estimation and avalanche outline determination by experts: reliability and implications for practice
Fluid conduits and shallow-reservoir structure defined by geoelectrical tomography at the Nirano Salse (Italy)
Estimating the effects of meteorology and land cover on fire growth in Peru using a novel difference equation model
Review article: Snow and ice avalanches in high mountain Asia – scientific, local and indigenous knowledge
Reduced-order digital twin and latent data assimilation for global wildfire prediction
A user perspective on the avalanche danger scale – insights from North America
Characterizing the rate of spread of large wildfires in emerging fire environments of northwestern Europe using Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite active fire data
Evaluation of low-cost Raspberry Pi sensors for structure-from-motion reconstructions of glacier calving fronts
Temporal evolution of crack propagation characteristics in a weak snowpack layer: conditions of crack arrest and sustained propagation
A data-driven model for Fennoscandian wildfire danger
Equivalent hazard magnitude scale
Statistical modelling of air quality impacts from individual forest fires in New South Wales, Australia
Drivers of extreme burnt area in Portugal: fire weather and vegetation
Coupling wildfire spread simulations and connectivity analysis for hazard assessment: a case study in Serra da Cabreira, Portugal
Glacial lake outburst flood hazard under current and future conditions: worst-case scenarios in a transboundary Himalayan basin
What weather variables are important for wet and slab avalanches under a changing climate in a low-altitude mountain range in Czechia?
Modelling ignition probability for human- and lightning-caused wildfires in Victoria, Australia
Automated snow avalanche release area delineation in data-sparse, remote, and forested regions
The 2017 Split wildfire in Croatia: evolution and the role of meteorological conditions
Progress and challenges in glacial lake outburst flood research (2017–2021): a research community perspective
Global assessment and mapping of ecological vulnerability to wildfires
The impact of terrain model source and resolution on snow avalanche modeling
Travel and terrain advice statements in public avalanche bulletins: a quantitative analysis of who uses this information, what makes it useful, and how it can be improved for users
Data-driven automated predictions of the avalanche danger level for dry-snow conditions in Switzerland
Florian Herla, Pascal Haegeli, Simon Horton, and Patrick Mair
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 625–646, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-625-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-625-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We present a spatial framework for extracting information about avalanche problems from detailed snowpack simulations and compare the numerical results against operational assessments from avalanche forecasters. Despite good agreement in seasonal summary statistics, a comparison of daily assessments revealed considerable differences, while it remained unclear which data source represented reality the best. We discuss how snowpack simulations can add value to the forecasting process.
Katharina H. Horn, Stenka Vulova, Hanyu Li, and Birgit Kleinschmit
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 383–401, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-383-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-383-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
In this study we applied a random forest machine learning algorithm to model current and future forest fire susceptibility (FFS) in north-eastern Germany using anthropogenic, climatic, topographic, soil, and vegetation variables. Model accuracy ranged between 69 % and 71 %, showing moderately high model reliability for predicting FFS. The model results underline the importance of anthropogenic and vegetation parameters. This study will support regional forest fire prevention and management.
Bastian Bergfeld, Karl W. Birkeland, Valentin Adam, Philipp L. Rosendahl, and Alec van Herwijnen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 321–334, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-321-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-321-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
To release a slab avalanche, a crack in a weak snow layer beneath a cohesive slab has to propagate. Information on that is essential for assessing avalanche risk. In the field, information can be gathered with the propagation saw test (PST). However, there are different standards on how to cut the PST. In this study, we experimentally investigate the effect of these different column geometries and provide models to correct for imprecise field test geometry effects on the critical cut length.
Stephanie Bohlmann and Marko Laine
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4225–4235, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4225-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4225-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Probabilistic ensemble forecasts of the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index (FWI) can be used to estimate the possible wildfire risk but require post-processing to provide accurate and reliable predictions. This article presents a calibration method using non-homogeneous Gaussian regression to statistically post-process FWI forecasts up to 15 d. Calibration improves the forecast especially at short lead times and in regions with high fire risk.
Amelie Fees, Alec van Herwijnen, Michael Lombardo, Jürg Schweizer, and Peter Lehmann
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3387–3400, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3387-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3387-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Glide-snow avalanches release at the ground–snow interface, and their release process is poorly understood. To investigate the influence of spatial variability (snowpack and basal friction) on avalanche release, we developed a 3D, mechanical, threshold-based model that reproduces an observed release area distribution. A sensitivity analysis showed that the distribution was mostly influenced by the basal friction uniformity, while the variations in snowpack properties had little influence.
Kang He, Xinyi Shen, Cory Merow, Efthymios Nikolopoulos, Rachael V. Gallagher, Feifei Yang, and Emmanouil N. Anagnostou
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3337–3355, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3337-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3337-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
A framework combining a fire severity classification with a regression model to predict an indicator of fire severity derived from Landsat imagery (difference normalized burning ratio, dNBR) is proposed. The results show that the proposed predictive technique is capable of providing robust fire severity prediction information, which can be used for forecasting seasonal fire severity and, subsequently, impacts on biodiversity and ecosystems under projected future climate conditions.
Adam Emmer, Oscar Vilca, Cesar Salazar Checa, Sihan Li, Simon Cook, Elena Pummer, Jan Hrebrina, and Wilfried Haeberli
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2316, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2316, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We report in detail the most recent large landslide-triggered glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF) in the Peruvian Andes (the 2023 Rasac GLOF), analyze its preconditions, consequences, and the role of changing climate. Our study contibutes to understanding GLOF occurrence patterns in space and time and corroborates increasing frequency of such events in changing mountains.
Audun Hetland, Rebecca Anne Hetland, Tarjei Tveito Skille, and Andrea Mannberg
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1628, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1628, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Research on human factor in avalanche decision making has become increasingly popular the past two decades. The studies span across a wide range of disciplines and is published in a variety of journals. To provide an overview of the literature this study provide a systematic scooping review of human factor in avalanche decision making. 70 papers fulfilled the search criteria. We extracted data and sorted the papers according to their main theme.
John Sykes, Pascal Haegeli, Roger Atkins, Patrick Mair, and Yves Bühler
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-147, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-147, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
We develop decision support tools to assist professional ski guides in determining safe terrain each day based on current conditions. To understand the decision-making process we collaborate with professional guides and build three unique models to predict their decisions. The models accurately capture the real world decision-making outcomes in 85–93 % of cases. Our conclusions focus on strengths and weaknesses of each model and discuss ramifications for practical applications in ski guiding.
Håvard B. Toft, Samuel V. Verplanck, and Markus Landrø
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2757–2772, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2757-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2757-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study investigates inconsistencies in impact force as part of extended column tests (ECTs). We measured force-time curves from 286 practitioners in Scandinavia, Central Europe, and North America. The results show a large variability in peak forces and loading rates across wrist, elbow, and shoulder taps, challenging the ECT's reliability.
Florian Herla, Pascal Haegeli, Simon Horton, and Patrick Mair
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2727–2756, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2727-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2727-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Snowpack simulations are increasingly employed by avalanche warning services to inform about critical avalanche layers buried in the snowpack. However, validity concerns limit their operational value. We present methods that enable meaningful comparisons between snowpack simulations and regional assessments of avalanche forecasters to quantify the performance of the Canadian weather and snowpack model chain to represent thin critical avalanche layers on a large scale and in real time.
Cristina Pérez-Guillén, Frank Techel, Michele Volpi, and Alec van Herwijnen
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2374, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2374, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study assesses the performance and explainability of a random forest classifier for predicting dry-snow avalanche danger levels during initial live-testing. The model achieved ∼70 % agreement with human forecasts, performing equally well in nowcast and forecast modes, while capturing the temporal dynamics of avalanche forecasting. The explainability approach enhances the transparency of the model's decision-making process, providing a valuable tool for operational avalanche forecasting.
Tandin Wangchuk and Ryota Tsubaki
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2523–2540, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2523-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2523-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
A glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF) is a natural hazard in which water from a glacier-fed lake is swiftly discharged, causing serious harm to life, infrastructure, and communities. We used numerical models to predict the potential consequences of a GLOF originating from the Thorthomi glacial lake in Bhutan. We found that if a GLOF occurs, the lake could release massive flood water within 4 h, posing a considerable risk. Study findings help to mitigate the impacts of future GLOFs.
Grant Statham and Cam Campbell
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-89, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-89, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
The Avalanche Terrain Exposure Scale (ATES) is an avalanche terrain rating system used for terrain assessment and risk communication in public and workplace avalanche safety practices. This paper introduces ATES v.2, an update to the system that expands the original scale from three levels to five by including Class 0 – Non-Avalanche Terrain, and Class 4 – Extreme Terrain. The updated models for assessment and communication are described in detail, along with methods for the application of ATES.
Håvard B. Toft, John Sykes, Andrew Schauer, Jordy Hendrikx, and Audun Hetland
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1779–1793, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1779-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1779-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Manual Avalanche Terrain Exposure Scale (ATES) mapping is time-consuming and inefficient for large-scale applications. The updated algorithm for automated ATES mapping overcomes previous limitations by including forest density data, improving the avalanche runout estimations in low-angle runout zones, accounting for overhead exposure and open-source software. Results show that the latest version has significantly improved its performance.
Paula Aguirre, Jorge León, Constanza González-Mathiesen, Randy Román, Manuela Penas, and Alonso Ogueda
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1521–1537, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1521-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1521-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Wildfires pose a significant risk to property located in the wildland–urban interface (WUI). To assess and mitigate this risk, we need to understand which characteristics of buildings and building arrangements make them more prone to damage. We used a combination of data collection and analysis methods to study the vulnerability of dwellings in the WUI for case studies in Chile and concluded that the spatial arrangement of houses has a substantial impact on their vulnerability to wildfires.
Martín Domínguez Durán, María Angélica Sandoval Garzón, and Carme Huguet
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1319–1339, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1319-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1319-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
In this study we created a cost-effective alternative to bridge the baseline information gap on indoor radon (a highly carcinogenic gas) in regions where measurements are scarce. We model indoor radon concentrations to understand its spatial distribution and the potential influential factors. We evaluated the performance of this alternative using a small number of measurements taken in Bogotá, Colombia. Our results show that this alternative could help in the making of future studies and policy.
Monica Sund, Heidi A. Grønsten, and Siv Å. Seljesæter
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1185–1201, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1185-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1185-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Slushflows are rapid mass movements of water-saturated snow released in gently sloping terrain (< 30°), often unexpectedly. Early warning is crucial to prevent casualties and damage to infrastructure. A regional early warning for slushflow hazard was established in Norway in 2013–2014 and has been operational since. We present a methodology using the ratio between water supply and snow depth by snow type to assess slushflow hazard. This approach is useful for other areas with slushflow hazard.
Sophie Barthelemy, Bertrand Bonan, Jean-Christophe Calvet, Gilles Grandjean, David Moncoulon, Dorothée Kapsambelis, and Séverine Bernardie
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 999–1016, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-999-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-999-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This work presents a drought index specifically adapted to subsidence, a seasonal phenomenon of soil shrinkage that occurs frequently in France and damages buildings. The index is computed from land surface model simulations and evaluated by a rank correlation test with insurance data. With its optimal configuration, the index is able to identify years of both zero and significant loss.
John Sykes, Håvard Toft, Pascal Haegeli, and Grant Statham
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 947–971, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-947-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-947-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The research validates and optimizes an automated approach for creating classified snow avalanche terrain maps using open-source geospatial modeling tools. Validation is based on avalanche-expert-based maps for two study areas. Our results show that automated maps have an overall accuracy equivalent to the average accuracy of three human maps. Automated mapping requires a fraction of the time and cost of traditional methods and opens the door for large-scale mapping of mountainous terrain.
Conor Hackett, Rafael de Andrade Moral, Gourav Mishra, Tim McCarthy, and Charles Markham
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-27, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-27, 2024
Revised manuscript under review for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
This paper reviews existing wildfire propagation models and a comparison of different grid types including random grids to simulate wildfires. This paper finds that irregular grids simulate wildfires more efficiently than continuous models while still retaining a reasonable level of similarity. It also shows that irregular grids tend to retain greater similarity to continuous models than regular grids at the cost of slightly longer computational times.
Jonas Mortelmans, Anne Felsberg, Gabriëlle J. M. De Lannoy, Sander Veraverbeke, Robert D. Field, Niels Andela, and Michel Bechtold
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 445–464, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-445-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-445-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
With global warming increasing the frequency and intensity of wildfires in the boreal region, accurate risk assessments are becoming more crucial than ever before. The Canadian Fire Weather Index (FWI) is a renowned system, yet its effectiveness in peatlands, where hydrology plays a key role, is limited. By incorporating groundwater data from numerical models and satellite observations, our modified FWI improves the accuracy of fire danger predictions, especially over summer.
Timothy W. Juliano, Fernando Szasdi-Bardales, Neil P. Lareau, Kasra Shamsaei, Branko Kosović, Negar Elhami-Khorasani, Eric P. James, and Hamed Ebrahimian
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 47–52, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-47-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-47-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Following the destructive Lahaina Fire in Hawaii, our team has modeled the wind and fire spread processes to understand the drivers of this devastating event. The simulation results show that extreme winds with high variability, a fire ignition close to the community, and construction characteristics led to continued fire spread in multiple directions. Our results suggest that available modeling capabilities can provide vital information to guide decision-making during wildfire events.
Stephanie Mayer, Frank Techel, Jürg Schweizer, and Alec van Herwijnen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3445–3465, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3445-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3445-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We present statistical models to estimate the probability for natural dry-snow avalanche release and avalanche size based on the simulated layering of the snowpack. The benefit of these models is demonstrated in comparison with benchmark models based on the amount of new snow. From the validation with data sets of quality-controlled avalanche observations and danger levels, we conclude that these models may be valuable tools to support forecasting natural dry-snow avalanche activity.
Wei Yang, Zhongyan Wang, Baosheng An, Yingying Chen, Chuanxi Zhao, Chenhui Li, Yongjie Wang, Weicai Wang, Jiule Li, Guangjian Wu, Lin Bai, Fan Zhang, and Tandong Yao
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3015–3029, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3015-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3015-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We present the structure and performance of the early warning system (EWS) for glacier collapse and river blockages in the southeastern Tibetan Plateau. The EWS warned of three collapse–river blockage chain events and seven small-scale events. The volume and location of the collapses and the percentage of ice content influenced the velocities of debris flows. Such a study is helpful for understanding the mechanism of glacier hazards and for establishing similar EWSs in other high-risk regions.
Alba Marquez Torres, Giovanni Signorello, Sudeshna Kumar, Greta Adamo, Ferdinando Villa, and Stefano Balbi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2937–2959, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2937-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2937-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Only by mapping fire risks can we manage forest and prevent fires under current and future climate conditions. We present a fire risk map based on k.LAB, artificial-intelligence-powered and open-source software integrating multidisciplinary knowledge in near real time. Through an easy-to-use web application, we model the hazard with 84 % accuracy for Sicily, a representative Mediterranean region. Fire risk analysis reveals 45 % of vulnerable areas face a high probability of danger in 2050.
Elisabeth D. Hafner, Frank Techel, Rodrigo Caye Daudt, Jan Dirk Wegner, Konrad Schindler, and Yves Bühler
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2895–2914, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2895-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2895-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Oftentimes when objective measurements are not possible, human estimates are used instead. In our study, we investigate the reproducibility of human judgement for size estimates, the mappings of avalanches from oblique photographs and remotely sensed imagery. The variability that we found in those estimates is worth considering as it may influence results and should be kept in mind for several applications.
Gerardo Romano, Marco Antonellini, Domenico Patella, Agata Siniscalchi, Andrea Tallarico, Simona Tripaldi, and Antonello Piombo
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2719–2735, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2719-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2719-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The Nirano Salse (northern Apennines, Italy) is characterized by several active mud vents and hosts thousands of visitors every year. New resistivity models describe the area down to 250 m, improving our geostructural knowledge of the area and giving useful indications for a better understanding of mud volcano dynamics and for the better planning of safer tourist access to the area.
Harry Podschwit, William Jolly, Ernesto Alvarado, Andrea Markos, Satyam Verma, Sebastian Barreto-Rivera, Catherine Tobón-Cruz, and Blanca Ponce-Vigo
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2607–2624, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2607-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2607-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We developed a model of fire spread that assumes that fire spreads in all directions at a constant speed and is extinguished at a constant rate. The model was fitted to 1003 fires in Peru between 2001 and 2020 using satellite burned area data from the GlobFire project. We fitted statistical models that predicted the spread and extinguish rates based on weather and land cover variables and found that these variables were good predictors of the spread and extinguish rates.
Anushilan Acharya, Jakob F. Steiner, Khwaja Momin Walizada, Salar Ali, Zakir Hussain Zakir, Arnaud Caiserman, and Teiji Watanabe
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2569–2592, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2569-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2569-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
All accessible snow and ice avalanches together with previous scientific research, local knowledge, and existing or previously active adaptation and mitigation solutions were investigated in the high mountain Asia (HMA) region to have a detailed overview of the state of knowledge and identify gaps. A comprehensive avalanche database from 1972–2022 is generated, including 681 individual events. The database provides a basis for the forecasting of avalanche hazards in different parts of HMA.
Caili Zhong, Sibo Cheng, Matthew Kasoar, and Rossella Arcucci
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1755–1768, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1755-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1755-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This paper introduces a digital twin fire model using machine learning techniques to improve the efficiency of global wildfire predictions. The proposed model also manages to efficiently adjust the prediction results thanks to data assimilation techniques. The proposed digital twin runs 500 times faster than the current state-of-the-art physics-based model.
Abby Morgan, Pascal Haegeli, Henry Finn, and Patrick Mair
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1719–1742, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1719-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1719-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The avalanche danger scale is a critical component for communicating the severity of avalanche hazard conditions to the public. We examine how backcountry recreationists in North America understand and use the danger scale for planning trips into the backcountry. Our results provide an important user perspective on the strengths and weaknesses of the existing scale and highlight opportunities for future improvements.
Adrián Cardíl, Victor M. Tapia, Santiago Monedero, Tomás Quiñones, Kerryn Little, Cathelijne R. Stoof, Joaquín Ramirez, and Sergio de-Miguel
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 361–373, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-361-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-361-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This study aims to unravel large-fire behavior in northwest Europe, a temperate region with a projected increase in wildfire risk. We propose a new method to identify wildfire rate of spread from satellites because it is important to know periods of elevated fire risk for suppression methods and land management. Results indicate that there is a peak in the area burned and rate of spread in the months of March and April, and there are significant differences for forest-type land covers.
Liam S. Taylor, Duncan J. Quincey, and Mark W. Smith
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 329–341, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-329-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-329-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Hazards from glaciers are becoming more likely as the climate warms, which poses a threat to communities living beneath them. We have developed a new camera system which can capture regular, high-quality 3D models to monitor small changes in glaciers which could be indicative of a future hazard. This system is far cheaper than more typical camera sensors yet produces very similar quality data. We suggest that deploying these cameras near glaciers could assist in warning communities of hazards.
Bastian Bergfeld, Alec van Herwijnen, Grégoire Bobillier, Philipp L. Rosendahl, Philipp Weißgraeber, Valentin Adam, Jürg Dual, and Jürg Schweizer
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 293–315, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-293-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-293-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
For a slab avalanche to release, the snowpack must facilitate crack propagation over large distances. Field measurements on crack propagation at this scale are very scarce. We performed a series of experiments, up to 10 m long, over a period of 10 weeks. Beside the temporal evolution of the mechanical properties of the snowpack, we found that crack speeds were highest for tests resulting in full propagation. Based on these findings, an index for self-sustained crack propagation is proposed.
Sigrid Jørgensen Bakke, Niko Wanders, Karin van der Wiel, and Lena Merete Tallaksen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 65–89, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-65-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-65-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, we developed a machine learning model to identify dominant controls of wildfire in Fennoscandia and produce monthly fire danger probability maps. The dominant control was shallow-soil water anomaly, followed by air temperature and deep soil water. The model proved skilful with a similar performance as the existing Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index (FWI). We highlight the benefit of using data-driven models jointly with other fire models to improve fire monitoring and prediction.
Yi Victor Wang and Antonia Sebastian
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 4103–4118, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-4103-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-4103-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
In this article, we propose an equivalent hazard magnitude scale and a method to evaluate and compare the strengths of natural hazard events across different hazard types, including earthquakes, tsunamis, floods, droughts, forest fires, tornadoes, cold waves, heat waves, and tropical cyclones. With our method, we determine that both the February 2021 North American cold wave event and Hurricane Harvey in 2017 were equivalent to a magnitude 7.5 earthquake in hazard strength.
Michael A. Storey and Owen F. Price
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 4039–4062, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-4039-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-4039-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Models are needed to understand and predict pollutant output from forest fires so fire agencies can reduce smoke-related risks to human health. We modelled air quality (PM2.5) based on fire area and weather variables. We found fire area and boundary layer height were influential on predictions, with distance, temperature, wind speed and relative humidity also important. The models predicted reasonably accurately in comparison to other existing methods but would benefit from further development.
Tomás Calheiros, Akli Benali, Mário Pereira, João Silva, and João Nunes
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 4019–4037, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-4019-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-4019-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Fire weather indices are used to assess the effect of weather on wildfires. Fire weather risk was computed and combined with large wildfires in Portugal. Results revealed the influence of vegetation cover: municipalities with a prevalence of shrublands, located in eastern parts, burnt under less extreme conditions than those with higher forested areas, situated in coastal regions. These findings are a novelty for fire science in Portugal and should be considered for fire management.
Ana C. L. Sá, Bruno Aparicio, Akli Benali, Chiara Bruni, Michele Salis, Fábio Silva, Martinho Marta-Almeida, Susana Pereira, Alfredo Rocha, and José Pereira
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3917–3938, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3917-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3917-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Assessing landscape wildfire connectivity supported by wildfire spread simulations can improve fire hazard assessment and fuel management plans. Weather severity determines the degree of fuel patch connectivity and thus the potential to spread large and intense wildfires. Mapping highly connected patches in the landscape highlights patch candidates for prior fuel treatments, which ultimately will contribute to creating fire-resilient Mediterranean landscapes.
Simon K. Allen, Ashim Sattar, Owen King, Guoqing Zhang, Atanu Bhattacharya, Tandong Yao, and Tobias Bolch
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3765–3785, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3765-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3765-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This study demonstrates how the threat of a very large outburst from a future lake can be feasibly assessed alongside that from current lakes to inform disaster risk management within a transboundary basin between Tibet and Nepal. Results show that engineering measures and early warning systems would need to be coupled with effective land use zoning and programmes to strengthen local response capacities in order to effectively reduce the risk associated with current and future outburst events.
Markéta Součková, Roman Juras, Kryštof Dytrt, Vojtěch Moravec, Johanna Ruth Blöcher, and Martin Hanel
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3501–3525, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3501-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3501-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Avalanches are natural hazards that threaten people and infrastructure. With climate change, avalanche activity is changing. We analysed the change in frequency and size of avalanches in the Krkonoše Mountains, Czechia, and detected important variables with machine learning tools from 1979–2020. Wet avalanches in February and March have increased, and slab avalanches have decreased and become smaller. The identified variables and their threshold levels may help in avalanche decision-making.
Annalie Dorph, Erica Marshall, Kate A. Parkins, and Trent D. Penman
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3487–3499, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3487-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3487-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Wildfire spatial patterns are determined by fire ignition sources and vegetation fuel moisture. Fire ignitions can be mediated by humans (owing to proximity to human infrastructure) or caused by lightning (owing to fuel moisture, average annual rainfall and local weather). When moisture in dead vegetation is below 20 % the probability of a wildfire increases. The results of this research enable accurate spatial mapping of ignition probability to aid fire suppression efforts and future research.
John Sykes, Pascal Haegeli, and Yves Bühler
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3247–3270, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3247-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3247-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Automated snow avalanche terrain mapping provides an efficient method for large-scale assessment of avalanche hazards, which informs risk management decisions for transportation and recreation. This research reduces the cost of developing avalanche terrain maps by using satellite imagery and open-source software as well as improving performance in forested terrain. The research relies on local expertise to evaluate accuracy, so the methods are broadly applicable in mountainous regions worldwide.
Ivana Čavlina Tomašević, Kevin K. W. Cheung, Višnjica Vučetić, Paul Fox-Hughes, Kristian Horvath, Maja Telišman Prtenjak, Paul J. Beggs, Barbara Malečić, and Velimir Milić
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3143–3165, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3143-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3143-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
One of the most severe and impactful urban wildfire events in Croatian history has been reconstructed and analyzed. The study identified some important meteorological influences related to the event: the synoptic conditions of the Azores anticyclone, cold front, and upper-level shortwave trough all led to the highest fire weather index in 2017. A low-level jet, locally known as bura wind that can be explained by hydraulic jump theory, was the dynamic trigger of the event.
Adam Emmer, Simon K. Allen, Mark Carey, Holger Frey, Christian Huggel, Oliver Korup, Martin Mergili, Ashim Sattar, Georg Veh, Thomas Y. Chen, Simon J. Cook, Mariana Correas-Gonzalez, Soumik Das, Alejandro Diaz Moreno, Fabian Drenkhan, Melanie Fischer, Walter W. Immerzeel, Eñaut Izagirre, Ramesh Chandra Joshi, Ioannis Kougkoulos, Riamsara Kuyakanon Knapp, Dongfeng Li, Ulfat Majeed, Stephanie Matti, Holly Moulton, Faezeh Nick, Valentine Piroton, Irfan Rashid, Masoom Reza, Anderson Ribeiro de Figueiredo, Christian Riveros, Finu Shrestha, Milan Shrestha, Jakob Steiner, Noah Walker-Crawford, Joanne L. Wood, and Jacob C. Yde
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3041–3061, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3041-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3041-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) have attracted increased research attention recently. In this work, we review GLOF research papers published between 2017 and 2021 and complement the analysis with research community insights gained from the 2021 GLOF conference we organized. The transdisciplinary character of the conference together with broad geographical coverage allowed us to identify progress, trends and challenges in GLOF research and outline future research needs and directions.
Fátima Arrogante-Funes, Inmaculada Aguado, and Emilio Chuvieco
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2981–3003, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2981-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2981-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We show that ecological value might be reduced by 50 % due to fire perturbation in ecosystems that have not developed in the presence of fire and/or that present changes in the fire regime. The biomes most affected are tropical and subtropical forests, tundra, and mangroves. Integration of biotic and abiotic fire regime and regeneration factors resulted in a powerful way to map ecological vulnerability to fire and develop assessments to generate adaptation plans of management in forest masses.
Aubrey Miller, Pascal Sirguey, Simon Morris, Perry Bartelt, Nicolas Cullen, Todd Redpath, Kevin Thompson, and Yves Bühler
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2673–2701, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2673-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2673-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Natural hazard modelers simulate mass movements to better anticipate the risk to people and infrastructure. These simulations require accurate digital elevation models. We test the sensitivity of a well-established snow avalanche model (RAMMS) to the source and spatial resolution of the elevation model. We find key differences in the digital representation of terrain greatly affect the simulated avalanche results, with implications for hazard planning.
Kathryn C. Fisher, Pascal Haegeli, and Patrick Mair
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1973–2000, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1973-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1973-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Avalanche bulletins include travel and terrain statements to provide recreationists with tangible guidance about how to apply the hazard information. We examined which bulletin users pay attention to these statements, what determines their usefulness, and how they could be improved. Our study shows that reducing jargon and adding simple explanations can significantly improve the usefulness of the statements for users with lower levels of avalanche awareness education who depend on this advice.
Cristina Pérez-Guillén, Frank Techel, Martin Hendrick, Michele Volpi, Alec van Herwijnen, Tasko Olevski, Guillaume Obozinski, Fernando Pérez-Cruz, and Jürg Schweizer
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2031–2056, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2031-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2031-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
A fully data-driven approach to predicting the danger level for dry-snow avalanche conditions in Switzerland was developed. Two classifiers were trained using a large database of meteorological data, snow cover simulations, and danger levels. The models performed well throughout the Swiss Alps, reaching a performance similar to the current experience-based avalanche forecasts. This approach shows the potential to be a valuable supplementary decision support tool for assessing avalanche hazard.
Cited articles
Ackroyd, P.: Erosion by snow avalanche and implications for geomorphic stability, Torlesse Range, New-Zealand, Arctic Alpine Res., 19, 65–70, 1987.
Alewell, C., Meusburger, K., Brodbeck, M., and Bänninger, D.: Methods to describe and predict soil erosion in mountain regions, Landsc. Urban Plann., 88, 46–53, 2008.
Bazzoffi, P.: Erosione del suolo e sviluppo rurale. Edagricole, Bologna, 249 pp., 2007.
Bell, I., Gardner, J., and Descally, F.: An estimate of snow avalanche debris transport, Kaghan Valley, Himalaya, Pakistan, Arctic Alpine Res., 22, 317–321, 1990.
Buehler, Y., Christen, M., Kowalski, J., and Bartelt, P.: Sensitivity of snow avalanche simulations to digital elevation model quality and resolution, Annals Glaciol., 52, 72–80, 2011.
Ceaglio, E., Meusburger, K., Freppaz, M., Zanini, E., and Alewell, C.: Estimation of soil redistribution rates due to snow cover related processes in a mountainous area (Valle d'Aosta, NW Italy), Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 517–528, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-16-517-2012, 2012.
Christen, M., Kowalski, J., and Bartelt, P.: RAMMS: numerical simulation of dense snow avalanches in three-dimensional terrain. Cold Reg. Sci. Technol., 63, 1–14, 2010.
Clark, L. A. and Wynn, T. M.: Methods for determining streambank critical shear stress and soil erodibility: implications for erosion rate predictions, Am. Soc. Agr. Biol. Eng., 50, 95–106, 2007.
Confortola, G., Maggioni, M., Freppaz, M., and Bocchiola, D.: Modelling soil removal from snow avalanches: a case study in the Italian Alps, Cold Reg. Sci. Technol., 70, 43–52, 2012.
Desmet, P. J. J. and Govers, G.: A GIS Procedure for Automatically Calculating the USLE LS Factor On Topographically Complex Landscapes Units, J. Soil Water Cons., 51, 427–433, 1996.
De Vente, J. and Poesen, J.: Predicting soil erosion and sediment yield at the basin scale: Scale issues and semi-quantitative models, Earth Sci. Rev., 71, 95–125, 2005.
Facchinelli, A., Magnini, M., Gallini, L., and Bonifacio, E.: 137Cs contamination from Chernobyl of soils in Piemonte (North-West Italy): spatial distribution and deposition model, Water, Air Soil Poll., 134, 341–352, 2002.
Freppaz, M., Lunardi, S., Maggioni, M., Valfré, F., Bizzocchi, T., and Zanini, E.: Soil erosion caused by snow avalanches: preliminary results of two case studies in the Aosta Valley (NWItaly), in: Proceeding of the International Snow Science Workshop: a Merging between Theory and Practice (ISSW 2006) Telluride, Colorado, USA, 1–7 October 2006, 880–886, 2006.
Freppaz, M., Godone, G., Filippa, G., Maggioni, M., Lunardi, S., Williams, M. W., and Zanini, E.: Soil Erosion Caused by Snow Avalanches: a Case Study in the Aosta Valley (NW Italy), Arct. Antarct. Alp. Res., 42, 412–421, 2010.
Garcia Rodriguez, J. L., Martin, C., and Gimenez Suarez, C.: Methodology for estimating the topographic factor LS of RUSLE3D and USPED using GIS, Geomorphology, 175–176, 98–106, 2012.
Gardner, J. S.: Observations on erosion by wet snow avalanches, Mount Rae area, Alberta, Canada, Arctic Alpine Res., 15, 271–274, 1983.
Grimm, M., Jones, R. J. A., Rusco, E., and Montanarella, L.: Soil Erosion Risk in Italy: a revised USLE approach. European Soil Bureau Research Report No.11, EUR20677 EN, (2002), 28 pp., Office for Official Publications of the European Communities, Luxembourg, 2003.
Gruber, U. and Bartelt, P.: Snow avalanche hazard modelling of large areas using shallow water numerical methods and GIS, Environmental Model. Softw., 22, 1472–1481, 2007.
Heckmann, T., Wichmann, V., and Becht, M.: Sediment transport by avalanches in the Bavarian Alps revisited – a perspective on modelling, in: Geomorphology in Environmental Application, edited by: Schmidt, K. H., Becht, M., Brunotte, E., Eitel, B., and Schrott, L., Zeitschrift für Geomorphologie, Supplement Series, Gebruder Borntraeger, Stuttgart, 11–25, 2005.
Joint Research Center Ispra, Nature and extent of soil erosion in Europe, Commission European Communities, available at: http://ec.europa.eu/environment/soil/pdf/vol2.pdf (last access: 28 January 2014), 2009.
Jomelli, V. and Bertran, P.: Wet snow avalanche deposits in the French Alps: structure and sedimentology, Geogr. Ann. A, 83, 15–28, 2001.
Konz, N., Schaub, M., Prasuhn, V., Baenninger, D., and Alewell, C.: Cesium-137-based erosion-rate determination of a steep mountainous region, J. Plant Nutr. Soil Sci., 172, 615–622, 2009.
Konz, N., Prasuhn, V., and Alewell, C.: On the measurement of Alpine soil erosion, Catena, 91, 63–71, 2012.
Korup, O. and Rixen, C.: Soil erosion and organic carbon export by wet snow avalanches, The Cryosphere, 8, 651–658, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-651-2014, 2014.
Lal, R.: Soil degradation by erosion, Land Degr. Develop., 12, 519–539, 2001.
Leitinger, G., Höller, P., Tasser, E., Walde, J., and Tappeiner, U.: Development and validation of a spatial snow-glide model, Ecol. Model., 211, 363–374, 2008.
Litschert, S. E., Theobald, D. M., and Brown, T. C.: Effects of climate change and wildfire on soil loss in the Southern Rockies Ecoregion, Catena 118, 206–219, 2014.
Lopez Moreno, J. L., Fassnacht, S. R., Heath, J. T., Musselman, K. N., Revuelto, J., Latron, J., Morán-Tejeda, E., and Jonas, T.: Small scale spatial variability of snow density and depth over complex alpine terrain: Implications for estimating snow water equivalent, Adv. Water Resour., 55, 40–52, 2013.
Mabit, L. and Bernard, C.: Assessment of spatial distribution of fallout radionuclides through geostatistics concept, J. Environ. Radioact., 97, 206–219, 2007.
Mabit, L., Benmansour, M., and Walling, D. E.: Comparative advantages and limitations of the fallout radionuclides 137Cs, 210Pb(ex) and 7Be for assessing soil erosion and sedimentation, J. Environ. Radioact., 99, 1700–1807, 2008.
Mabit, L., Meusburger, K., Fulajtar, E., and Alewell, C.: The usefulness of 137Cs as a tracer for soil erosion assessment: A critical reply to Parsons and Foster (2011), Earth-Sci. Rev., 127, 300–307, 2013.
Matisoff, G. and Whiting, P. J.: Measuring Soil Erosion Rates Using Natural (Be-7, Pb-210) and Anthropogenic (Cs-137, Pu-239,Pu-240) Radionuclides, Handbook of Environmental Isotope Geochemistry, Vols. 1 and 2, edited by: Baskaran, M., Springer-Verlag Berlin, Berlin, 487–519, 2011.
Meusburger, K., Konz, N., Schaub, M., and Alewell, C.: Soil erosion modelled with USLE and PESERA using QuickBird derived vegetation parameters in an Alpine catchment, Int. J .Appl. Earth Obs. Geoinf., 12, 208–215, 2010.
Meusburger, K., Steel, A., Panagos, P., Montanarella, L., and Alewell, C.: Spatial and temporal variability of rainfall erosivity factor for Switzerland, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 167–177, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-16-167-2012, 2012.
Meusburger, K., Leitinger, G., Mabit, L., Mueller, M. H., Walter, A., and Alewell, C.: Soil erosion by snow gliding – a first quantification attempt in a sub-alpine area, Switzerland, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., 11, 3675–3710, https://doi.org/10.5194/hessd-11-3675-2014, 2014.
Mitasova, H., Mitas, L., and Brown, W. M.: Multiscale simulation of land use impact on soil erosion and deposition patterns, in: Sustaining the Global Farm, edited by: Stott, D. E., Mohtar, R. H., and Steinhart, G. C., Selected papers from the 10th ISCO Meeting held 24–29 May 1999 at Purdue University and the USDA-ARS NSERL, 1163–1169, 2002.
Prasannakumar, V., Vijith, H., Abinod, S., and Geetha, N.: Estimation of soil erosion risk within a small mountainous sub-watershed in Kerala, India, using Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE) and geo-information technology, Geosci. Front., 3, 209–215, 2012.
Prasuhn, V., Linniger, H., Gisler, S., Herweg, K., Candinas, A., and Clement, J. P.: A high-resolution soil erosion risk map of Switzerland as strategic policy support system, Land Use Pol., 32, 281–291, 2013.
Renard, K., Foster, G., Weesies, G., McCool, D., and Yoder, D.: Predicting soil erosion by water: a guide to conservation planning with the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE), USDA Agriculture Handbook #703, 384 pp., 1997.
Ritchie, J. C. and McHenry, J. R.: Application of radioactive fallout cesium-137 for measuring soil-erosion and sediment accumulation rates and patterns – A review, J. Environ. Qual., 19, 215–233, 1990.
Salm, B.: Flow, flow transition and runout distances of flowing avalanches, Ann. Glaciol. 18, 221–226, 1993.
Sass, O., Hoinkis, R., and Wetzel, K. F.: A six-year record of debris transport by avalanches on a wildfire slope (Arnspitze, Tyrol), Z. Geomorphol., 54, 181–193, 2010.
Shakhashiro, A. and Mabit, L.: Results of an IAEA inter-comparison exercise to assess 137Cs and total 210Pb analytical performance in soil, Appl. Radiat. Isot., 67, 139–146, 2009.
Tamura, T.: Selective sorption reaction of caesium with mineral soils, Nucl. Saf., 5, 262–268, 1964.
Tamura, T. and Jacobs, D. G.: Structural implications in cesium sorption, Health Phys., 2, 391–398, 1960.
US Department of Agriculture, S.C.S.: Procedure for Computing Sheet and Rill Erosion on Project Areas. Soil Conservation Service, Technical Release No. 51 (Rev. 2), 1977.
Walling, D. E. and Quine, T. A.: Calibration of caesium-137 measurements to provide quantitative erosion rate data, Land Degrad. Rehabil., 2, 161–173, 1990.
Wischmeier, W. H. and Smith, D. D.: Predicting Rainfall Erosion Losses – A Guide to Conservation Planning, Agric. Handbook No. 537, Washington, DC, 1978.
Yoder, D. C., Foster, G. R., Weesies, G. A., Renard, K. G., McCool, D. K., and Lown, J. B.: Evaluation of the RUSLE soil erosion model, in: Agricultural Non-Point Source Water Quality Models; Their use and Application, edited by: Parsons, J. E., Thomas, D. L., and Huffman, R. L., Southern Cooperative Series Bulletin #398, July 2001, ISBN: 1-58161-398-9, available at: http://www3.b, 2001.
Zhang, H., Yang, Q., Rui, L., Liu, Q., Moore, D., He, P., Ritsema, C. J., and Geissen., V.: Extension of a GIS procedure for calculating the RUSLE equation LS factor, Comput. Geosci., 52, 177–188, 2013.
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint