Articles | Volume 25, issue 4
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1439-2025
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1439-2025
Research article
 | 
15 Apr 2025
Research article |  | 15 Apr 2025

Untangling the waves: decomposing extreme sea levels in a non-tidal basin, the Baltic Sea

Marvin Lorenz, Katri Viigand, and Ulf Gräwe

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This preprint is open for discussion and under review for The Cryosphere (TC).
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Cited articles

Andrée, E., Su, J., Dahl Larsen, M. A., Drews, M., Stendel, M., and Skovgaard Madsen, K.: The role of preconditioning for extreme storm surges in the western Baltic Sea, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1817–1834, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1817-2023, 2023. a, b
Arns, A., Wahl, T., Haigh, I., Jensen, J., and Pattiaratchi, C.: Estimating extreme water level probabilities: A comparison of the direct methods and recommendations for best practise, Coast. Eng., 81, 51–66, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.coastaleng.2013.07.003, 2013. a, b
Arns, A., Wahl, T., Wolff, C., Vafeidis, A. T., Haigh, I. D., Woodworth, P., Niehüser, S., and Jensen, J.: Non-linear interaction modulates global extreme sea levels, coastal flood exposure, and impacts, Nat. Commun., 11, 1–9, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-15752-5, 2020. a, b, c, d
Bierstedt, S. E., Hünicke, B., and Zorita, E.: Variability of wind direction statistics of mean and extreme wind events over the Baltic Sea region, Tellus A, 67, 29073, https://doi.org/10.3402/tellusa.v67.29073, 2015. a
Bilskie, M. V., Hagen, S. C., Medeiros, S. C., and Passeri, D. L.: Dynamics of sea level rise and coastal flooding on a changing landscape, Geophys. Res. Lett., 41, 927–934, https://doi.org/10.1002/2013GL058759, 2014. a
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This study divides the sea level components that contribute to extreme sea levels in the Baltic Sea into three parts: the filling state of the Baltic Sea, seiches, and storm surges. In the western part of the Baltic Sea, storm surges are the main factor, while in the central and northern parts, the filling state plays a larger role. Using a numerical model, we show that wind and air pressure are the main drivers of these events, with Atlantic sea level also playing a small role.
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