Articles | Volume 23, issue 3
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1157-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1157-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
21 Mar 2023
Research article |
| 21 Mar 2023
| 21 Mar 2023
Deadly disasters in southeastern South America: flash floods and landslides of February 2022 in Petrópolis, Rio de Janeiro
Graduate Program in Natural Disasters, Unesp/CEMADEN, São José dos Campos, Brazil
José A. Marengo
Graduate Program in Natural Disasters, Unesp/CEMADEN, São José dos Campos, Brazil
National Center for Monitoring and Early Warning of Natural Disasters (CEMADEN), São José dos Campos, Brazil
José Mantovani
Graduate Program in Natural Disasters, Unesp/CEMADEN, São José dos Campos, Brazil
Luciana R. Londe
Graduate Program in Natural Disasters, Unesp/CEMADEN, São José dos Campos, Brazil
National Center for Monitoring and Early Warning of Natural Disasters (CEMADEN), São José dos Campos, Brazil
Rachel Lau Yu San
National Institute of Education, Earth Observatory of Singapore and Asian School of the Environment, Nanyang Technological University (NTU), Singapore
Edward Park
National Institute of Education, Earth Observatory of Singapore and Asian School of the Environment, Nanyang Technological University (NTU), Singapore
Yunung Nina Lin
Institute of Earth Sciences, Academia Sinica, Taipei, Taiwan
Jingyu Wang
National Institute of Education, Earth Observatory of Singapore and Asian School of the Environment, Nanyang Technological University (NTU), Singapore
Tatiana Mendes
Graduate Program in Natural Disasters, Unesp/CEMADEN, São José dos Campos, Brazil
Department of Environmental Engineering, Institute of Science and Technology, São Paulo State University (Unesp), São José dos Campos, Brazil
Ana Paula Cunha
Graduate Program in Natural Disasters, Unesp/CEMADEN, São José dos Campos, Brazil
National Center for Monitoring and Early Warning of Natural Disasters (CEMADEN), São José dos Campos, Brazil
Luana Pampuch
Graduate Program in Natural Disasters, Unesp/CEMADEN, São José dos Campos, Brazil
Department of Environmental Engineering, Institute of Science and Technology, São Paulo State University (Unesp), São José dos Campos, Brazil
Marcelo Seluchi
National Center for Monitoring and Early Warning of Natural Disasters (CEMADEN), São José dos Campos, Brazil
Silvio Simões
Graduate Program in Natural Disasters, Unesp/CEMADEN, São José dos Campos, Brazil
Luz Adriana Cuartas
Graduate Program in Natural Disasters, Unesp/CEMADEN, São José dos Campos, Brazil
National Center for Monitoring and Early Warning of Natural Disasters (CEMADEN), São José dos Campos, Brazil
Demerval Goncalves
National Center for Monitoring and Early Warning of Natural Disasters (CEMADEN), São José dos Campos, Brazil
Klécia Massi
Graduate Program in Natural Disasters, Unesp/CEMADEN, São José dos Campos, Brazil
Department of Environmental Engineering, Institute of Science and Technology, São Paulo State University (Unesp), São José dos Campos, Brazil
Regina Alvalá
Graduate Program in Natural Disasters, Unesp/CEMADEN, São José dos Campos, Brazil
National Center for Monitoring and Early Warning of Natural Disasters (CEMADEN), São José dos Campos, Brazil
Osvaldo Moraes
Graduate Program in Natural Disasters, Unesp/CEMADEN, São José dos Campos, Brazil
National Center for Monitoring and Early Warning of Natural Disasters (CEMADEN), São José dos Campos, Brazil
Carlos Souza Filho
Institute of Geosciences (IG/Unicamp), University of Campinas, Campinas, Brazil
Rodolfo Mendes
Graduate Program in Natural Disasters, Unesp/CEMADEN, São José dos Campos, Brazil
National Center for Monitoring and Early Warning of Natural Disasters (CEMADEN), São José dos Campos, Brazil
Carlos Nobre
Graduate Program in Natural Disasters, Unesp/CEMADEN, São José dos Campos, Brazil
Institute of Advanced Studies, University of São Paulo (IEA/USP), São Paulo, Brazil
Related authors
M. B. Nunes, A. P. Dal Poz, E. Alcântara, and M. Curtarelli
Int. Arch. Photogramm. Remote Sens. Spatial Inf. Sci., XLII-3-W12-2020, 231–235, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-archives-XLII-3-W12-2020-231-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-archives-XLII-3-W12-2020-231-2020, 2020
Wei Jing Ang, Edward Park, Yadu Pokhrel, Dung Duc Tran, and Ho Huu Loc
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 16, 1209–1228, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-1209-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-1209-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Dams have burgeoned in the Mekong, but information on dams is scattered and inconsistent. Up-to-date evaluation of dams is unavailable, and basin-wide hydropower potential has yet to be systematically assessed. We present a comprehensive database of 1055 dams, a spatiotemporal analysis of the dams, and a total hydropower potential of 1 334 683 MW. Considering projected dam development and hydropower potential, the vulnerability and the need for better dam management may be highest in Laos.
Jingyu Wang, Jiwen Fan, and Zhe Feng
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3823–3838, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3823-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3823-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Hail and tornadoes are devastating hazards responsible for significant property damage and economic losses in the United States. Quantifying the connection between hazard events and mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) is of great significance for improving predictability, as well as for better understanding the influence of the climate-scale perturbations. A 14-year statistical dataset of MCS-related hazard production is presented.
Bjorn Stevens, Stefan Adami, Tariq Ali, Hartwig Anzt, Zafer Aslan, Sabine Attinger, Jaana Bäck, Johanna Baehr, Peter Bauer, Natacha Bernier, Bob Bishop, Hendryk Bockelmann, Sandrine Bony, Veronique Bouchet, Guy Brasseur, David N. Bresch, Sean Breyer, Gilbert Brunet, Pier Luigi Buttigieg, Junji Cao, Christelle Castet, Yafang Cheng, Ayantika Dey Choudhury, Deborah Coen, Susanne Crewell, Atish Dabholkar, Qing Dai, Francisco Doblas-Reyes, Dale Durran, Ayoub El Gaidi, Charlie Ewen, Eleftheria Exarchou, Veronika Eyring, Florencia Falkinhoff, David Farrell, Piers M. Forster, Ariane Frassoni, Claudia Frauen, Oliver Fuhrer, Shahzad Gani, Edwin Gerber, Debra Goldfarb, Jens Grieger, Nicolas Gruber, Wilco Hazeleger, Rolf Herken, Chris Hewitt, Torsten Hoefler, Huang-Hsiung Hsu, Daniela Jacob, Alexandra Jahn, Christian Jakob, Thomas Jung, Christopher Kadow, In-Sik Kang, Sarah Kang, Karthik Kashinath, Katharina Kleinen-von Königslöw, Daniel Klocke, Uta Kloenne, Milan Klöwer, Chihiro Kodama, Stefan Kollet, Tobias Kölling, Jenni Kontkanen, Steve Kopp, Michal Koran, Markku Kulmala, Hanna Lappalainen, Fakhria Latifi, Bryan Lawrence, June Yi Lee, Quentin Lejeun, Christian Lessig, Chao Li, Thomas Lippert, Jürg Luterbacher, Pekka Manninen, Jochem Marotzke, Satoshi Matsouoka, Charlotte Merchant, Peter Messmer, Gero Michel, Kristel Michielsen, Tomoki Miyakawa, Jens Müller, Ramsha Munir, Sandeep Narayanasetti, Ousmane Ndiaye, Carlos Nobre, Achim Oberg, Riko Oki, Tuba Özkan-Haller, Tim Palmer, Stan Posey, Andreas Prein, Odessa Primus, Mike Pritchard, Julie Pullen, Dian Putrasahan, Johannes Quaas, Krishnan Raghavan, Venkatachalam Ramaswamy, Markus Rapp, Florian Rauser, Markus Reichstein, Aromar Revi, Sonakshi Saluja, Masaki Satoh, Vera Schemann, Sebastian Schemm, Christina Schnadt Poberaj, Thomas Schulthess, Cath Senior, Jagadish Shukla, Manmeet Singh, Julia Slingo, Adam Sobel, Silvina Solman, Jenna Spitzer, Detlef Stammer, Philip Stier, Thomas Stocker, Sarah Strock, Hang Su, Petteri Taalas, John Taylor, Susann Tegtmeier, Georg Teutsch, Adrian Tompkins, Uwe Ulbrich, Pier-Luigi Vidale, Chien-Ming Wu, Hao Xu, Najibullah Zaki, Laure Zanna, Tianjun Zhou, and Florian Ziemen
Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2023-376, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2023-376, 2023
Revised manuscript accepted for ESSD
Short summary
Short summary
To manage Earth in the Anthropocene, new tools, new institutions, and new forms of international cooperation will be required. Earth Virtualization Engines are proposed as international federation of centers of excellence to empower all people to respond to the immense and urgent challenges posed by climate change.
Jingyu Wang, Xianfeng Wang, Edward Park, and Yun Lin
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-100, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-100, 2023
Manuscript not accepted for further review
Short summary
Short summary
Building upon the findings in a preceding study by the authors (Wang et al., 2023), this brief communication successfully applied the soil moisture-based tornado damage track detection method to the 24–25 March 2023 Mississippi outbreak. This study also found that the notable discrepancies between spotter reports and ground survey assessments at the tornado early stage can be reconciled using the new method.
Marcos Roberto Benso, Gabriela Chiquito Gesualdo, Roberto Fray Silva, Greicelene Jesus Silva, Luis Miguel Castillo Rápalo, Fabricio Alonso Richmond Navarro, Patricia Angélica Alves Marques, José Antônio Marengo, and Eduardo Mario Mendiondo
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1335–1354, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1335-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1335-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This article is about how farmers can better protect themselves from disasters like droughts, extreme temperatures, and floods. The authors suggest that one way to do this is by offering insurance contracts that cover these different types of disasters. By having this insurance, farmers can receive financial support and recover more quickly. The article elicits different ideas about how to design this type of insurance and suggests ways to make it better.
M. L. L. Reiss, T. S. G. Mendes, F. F. Pereira, M. R. M. de Andrade, R. M. Mendes, S. J. C. Simões, R. de Lara, and S. F. de Souza
Int. Arch. Photogramm. Remote Sens. Spatial Inf. Sci., XLIII-B2-2022, 1077–1083, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-archives-XLIII-B2-2022-1077-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-archives-XLIII-B2-2022-1077-2022, 2022
Po-Lun Ma, Bryce E. Harrop, Vincent E. Larson, Richard B. Neale, Andrew Gettelman, Hugh Morrison, Hailong Wang, Kai Zhang, Stephen A. Klein, Mark D. Zelinka, Yuying Zhang, Yun Qian, Jin-Ho Yoon, Christopher R. Jones, Meng Huang, Sheng-Lun Tai, Balwinder Singh, Peter A. Bogenschutz, Xue Zheng, Wuyin Lin, Johannes Quaas, Hélène Chepfer, Michael A. Brunke, Xubin Zeng, Johannes Mülmenstädt, Samson Hagos, Zhibo Zhang, Hua Song, Xiaohong Liu, Michael S. Pritchard, Hui Wan, Jingyu Wang, Qi Tang, Peter M. Caldwell, Jiwen Fan, Larry K. Berg, Jerome D. Fast, Mark A. Taylor, Jean-Christophe Golaz, Shaocheng Xie, Philip J. Rasch, and L. Ruby Leung
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 2881–2916, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-2881-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-2881-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
An alternative set of parameters for E3SM Atmospheric Model version 1 has been developed based on a tuning strategy that focuses on clouds. When clouds in every regime are improved, other aspects of the model are also improved, even though they are not the direct targets for calibration. The recalibrated model shows a lower sensitivity to anthropogenic aerosols and surface warming, suggesting potential improvements to the simulated climate in the past and future.
Flavio Lopes Ribeiro, Mario Guevara, Alma Vázquez-Lule, Ana Paula Cunha, Marcelo Zeri, and Rodrigo Vargas
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 879–892, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-879-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-879-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The main objective of this paper was to analyze differences in soil moisture responses to drought for each biome of Brazil. For that we used satellite data from the European Space Agency from 2009 to 2015. We found an overall soil moisture decline of −0.5 % yr−1 at the country level and identified the most vulnerable biomes of Brazil. This information is crucial to enhance the national drought early warning system and develop strategies for drought risk reduction and soil moisture conservation.
Jingyu Wang, Jiwen Fan, Robert A. Houze Jr., Stella R. Brodzik, Kai Zhang, Guang J. Zhang, and Po-Lun Ma
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 719–734, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-719-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-719-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
This paper presents an evaluation of the E3SM model against NEXRAD radar observations for the warm seasons during 2014–2016. The COSP forward simulator package is implemented in the model to generate radar reflectivity, and the NEXRAD observations are coarsened to the model resolution for comparison. The model severely underestimates the reflectivity above 4 km. Sensitivity tests on the parameters from cumulus parameterization and cloud microphysics do not improve this model bias.
M. B. Nunes, A. P. Dal Poz, E. Alcântara, and M. Curtarelli
Int. Arch. Photogramm. Remote Sens. Spatial Inf. Sci., XLII-3-W12-2020, 231–235, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-archives-XLII-3-W12-2020-231-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-archives-XLII-3-W12-2020-231-2020, 2020
Vinicius Buscioli Capistrano, Paulo Nobre, Sandro F. Veiga, Renata Tedeschi, Josiane Silva, Marcus Bottino, Manoel Baptista da Silva Jr., Otacílio Leandro Menezes Neto, Silvio Nilo Figueroa, José Paulo Bonatti, Paulo Yoshio Kubota, Julio Pablo Reyes Fernandez, Emanuel Giarolla, Jessica Vial, and Carlos A. Nobre
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 2277–2296, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-2277-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-2277-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
This work represents the product of our recent efforts to develop a Brazilian climate model and helps address some scientific issues on the frontier of knowledge (e.g., cloud feedback studies). The BESM results show climate sensitivity and thermodynamical responses similar to a CMIP5 ensemble. More than that, BESM has the objective of being an additional climate model with the ability to reproduce changes that are physically understood in order to study the global climate system.
Leonardo B. L. Santos, Aurelienne A. S. Jorge, Luciana R. Londe, Regina T. Reani, Roberta B. Bacelar, and Igor M. Sokolov
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2019-199, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2019-199, 2019
Revised manuscript not accepted
Short summary
Short summary
The measurement and mapping of transportation network vulnerability constitute subjects of global interest. During a flood, some elements of a transportation network can be reached, causing damages directly (to people) and indirect damages (to services) with great economic impacts. The Complex Networks approach may offer a valuable perspective considering the topological vulnerability. Our results can represent an important tool for stakeholders from the transportation sector.
M. L. L. Reiss, T. S. G. Mendes, M. R. M. Andrade, A. M. Amory, R. de Lara, and S. F. Souza
Int. Arch. Photogramm. Remote Sens. Spatial Inf. Sci., XLII-2-W13, 567–574, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-archives-XLII-2-W13-567-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-archives-XLII-2-W13-567-2019, 2019
Sandro F. Veiga, Paulo Nobre, Emanuel Giarolla, Vinicius Capistrano, Manoel Baptista Jr., André L. Marquez, Silvio Nilo Figueroa, José Paulo Bonatti, Paulo Kubota, and Carlos A. Nobre
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 1613–1642, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-1613-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-1613-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
This study evaluates the Brazilian Earth System Model with coupled ocean–atmosphere version 2.5 (BESM-OA2.5) and the effectiveness of reproducing the main characteristics of the atmospheric and oceanic variability in a real-life-based scenario of greenhouse gas increase (the CMIP5 historical protocol). The evaluation specifically focuses on how the model simulates the mean climate state, as well as the most important large-scale climate patterns.
Rodolfo M. Mendes, Márcio Roberto M. de Andrade, Javier Tomasella, Márcio Augusto E. de Moraes, and Graziela B. Scofield
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 15–30, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-15-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-15-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
The results showed in this paper confirmed that the occurrence of landslides in the study area cannot be attributed solely and exclusively to the rainfall events of the year 2000. Therefore, numerical modelling results corroborated the fact that the occurrence of landslides was the combination of natural and anthropic factors, with the decisive influence of the latter due to the presence of several cuts along the slope combined with load of constructions and leakage.
Jose A. Marengo, Gilberto F. Fisch, Lincoln M. Alves, Natanael V. Sousa, Rong Fu, and Yizhou Zhuang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 7671–7681, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-7671-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-7671-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
The onset and demise of the rainy season in Amazonia are assessed in this study using meteorological data from the GoAmazon experiment for the 2014–15 rainy season. The onset of the rainy season was strongly associated with changes in large-scale circulation in the region, and our analyses using regional thermodynamic indices suggest that local changes such the regional thermodynamic characteristics may have been less important on the occurrence of the onset compared to large-scale circulation.
Elisângela Broedel, Celso Von Randow, Luz Adriana Cuartas, Antonio Donato Nobre, Alessandro Carioca de Araújo, Bart Kruijt, Etienne Tourigny, Luiz Antônio Cândido, Martin Hodnett, and Javier Tomasella
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2017-203, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2017-203, 2017
Revised manuscript not accepted
Short summary
Short summary
This work describes the simulation of surface fluxes in two distinct environments along a topographic gradient in a central Amazonian forest using the INLAND Model. The results show that a surface model can capture the small differences related to energy, water and carbon balance between both sites. These confirms the importance to incorporate subgrid scale variability by including relief attributes of topography, soil and vegetation to better representing Terra Firme forests in these models.
Kaniska Mallick, Ivonne Trebs, Eva Boegh, Laura Giustarini, Martin Schlerf, Darren T. Drewry, Lucien Hoffmann, Celso von Randow, Bart Kruijt, Alessandro Araùjo, Scott Saleska, James R. Ehleringer, Tomas F. Domingues, Jean Pierre H. B. Ometto, Antonio D. Nobre, Osvaldo Luiz Leal de Moraes, Matthew Hayek, J. William Munger, and Steven C. Wofsy
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 4237–4264, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-4237-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-4237-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
While quantifying vegetation water use over multiple plant function types in the Amazon Basin, we found substantial biophysical control during drought as well as a water-stress period and dominant climatic control during a water surplus period. This work has direct implication in understanding the resilience of the Amazon forest in the spectre of frequent drought menace as well as the role of drought-induced plant biophysical functioning in modulating the water-carbon coupling in this ecosystem.
R. M. S. P. Vieira, J. Tomasella, R. C. S. Alvalá, M. F. Sestini, A. G. Affonso, D. A. Rodriguez, A. A. Barbosa, A. P. M. A. Cunha, G. F. Valles, E. Crepani, S. B. P. de Oliveira, M. S. B. de Souza, P. M. Calil, M. A. de Carvalho, D. M. Valeriano, F. C. B. Campello, and M. O. Santana
Solid Earth, 6, 347–360, https://doi.org/10.5194/se-6-347-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/se-6-347-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
This study is the first effort to produce a comprehensive diagnosis of the desertification processes for the entire semiarid of Brazil region and combines the existent experience from previous studies in the region with a consolidated methodology.
P. I. M. Camarinha, V. Canavesi, and R. C. S. Alvalá
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 2449–2468, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-2449-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-2449-2014, 2014
A. Drumond, J. Marengo, T. Ambrizzi, R. Nieto, L. Moreira, and L. Gimeno
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 2577–2598, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-2577-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-2577-2014, 2014
Related subject area
Landslides and Debris Flows Hazards
Characteristics of debris-flow-prone watersheds and debris-flow-triggering rainstorms following the Tadpole Fire, New Mexico, USA
Morphological characteristics and conditions of drainage basins contributing to the formation of debris flow fans: an examination of regions with different rock strength using decision tree analysis
Comparison of debris flow observations, including fine-sediment grain size and composition and runout model results, at Illgraben, Swiss Alps
Simulation analysis of 3D stability of a landslide with a locking segment: a case study of the Tizicao landslide in Maoxian County, southwest China
Space–time landslide hazard modeling via Ensemble Neural Networks
Optimization strategy for flexible barrier structures: investigation and back analysis of a rockfall disaster case in southwestern China
Numerical-model-derived intensity–duration thresholds for early warning of rainfall-induced debris flows in a Himalayan catchment
Slope Unit Maker (SUMak): an efficient and parameter-free algorithm for delineating slope units to improve landslide modeling
Probabilistic Hydrological Estimation of LandSlides (PHELS): global ensemble landslide hazard modelling
Analysis of three-dimensional slope stability combined with rainfall and earthquake
Assessing Locations Susceptible to Landslide Initiation During Prolonged Intense Rainfall in the Lares, Utuado, and Naranjito Municipios of Puerto Rico
A new analytical method for stability analysis of rock blocks with basal erosion in sub-horizontal strata by considering the eccentricity effect
Rockfall monitoring with a Doppler radar on an active rockslide complex in Brienz/Brinzauls (Switzerland)
Landslide initiation thresholds in data-sparse regions: application to landslide early warning criteria in Sitka, Alaska, USA
Lessons learnt from a rockfall time series analysis: data collection, statistical analysis, and applications
Evaluation of debris-flow building damage forecasts
The concept of event-size-dependent exhaustion and its application to paraglacial rockslides
Coastal earthquake-induced landslide susceptibility during the 2016 Mw 7.8 Kaikōura earthquake, New Zealand
Addressing Class Imbalance in Soil Movement Predictions
Assessing Landslide Damming susceptibility in Central Asia
Characteristics of debris flows recorded in the Shenmu area of central Taiwan between 2004 and 2021
Semi-automatic mapping of shallow landslides using free Sentinel-2 images and Google Earth Engine
The role of thermokarst evolution in debris flow initiation (Hüttekar Rock Glacier, Austrian Alps)
Accounting for the effect of forest and fragmentation in probabilistic rockfall hazard
Comprehensive landslide susceptibility map of Central Asia
The influence of large woody debris on post-wildfire debris flow sediment storage
Assessing the impact of climate change to landslides using public data, a case study from Vejle, Denmark
Statistical modeling of sediment supply in torrent catchments of the northern French Alps
A data-driven evaluation of post-fire landslide susceptibility
Deciphering seasonal effects of triggering and preparatory precipitation for improved shallow landslide prediction using generalized additive mixed models
Brief communication: The northwest Himalaya towns slipping towards potential disaster
Dynamic response and breakage of trees subject to a landslide-induced air blast
Debris-flow surges of a very active alpine torrent: a field database
Rainfall thresholds estimation for shallow landslides in Peru from gridded daily data
Instantaneous limit equilibrium back analyses of major rockslides triggered during the 2016–2017 central Italy seismic sequence
Multi-event assessment of typhoon-triggered landslide susceptibility in the Philippines
Antecedent rainfall as a critical factor for the triggering of debris flows in arid regions
Sensitivity analysis of a built environment exposed to the synthetic monophasic viscous debris flow impacts with 3-D numerical simulations
Characteristics and causes of natural and human-induced landslides in a tropical mountainous region: the rift flank west of Lake Kivu (Democratic Republic of the Congo)
Spatio-temporal analysis of slope-type debris flow activity in Horlachtal, Austria, based on orthophotos and lidar data since 1947
Assessing the relationship between weather conditions and rockfall using terrestrial laser scanning to improve risk management
Using principal component analysis to incorporate multi-layer soil moisture information in hydrometeorological thresholds for landslide prediction: an investigation based on ERA5-Land reanalysis data
Assessing uncertainties in landslide susceptibility predictions in a changing environment (Styrian Basin, Austria)
Brief communication: An autonomous UAV for catchment-wide monitoring of a debris flow torrent
How volcanic stratigraphy constrains headscarp collapse scenarios: the Samperre cliff case study (Martinique island, Lesser Antilles)
Landslide susceptibility assessment in the rocky coast subsystem of Essaouira, Morocco
Landsifier v1.0: a Python library to estimate likely triggers of mapped landslides
Timing landslide and flash flood events from SAR satellite: a regionally applicable methodology illustrated in African cloud-covered tropical environments
Potential of satellite-derived hydro-meteorological information for landslide initiation thresholds in Rwanda
Earthquake-induced landslides in Haiti: analysis of seismotectonic and possible climatic influences
Luke A. McGuire, Francis K. Rengers, Ann M. Youberg, Alexander N. Gorr, Olivia J. Hoch, Rebecca Beers, and Ryan Porter
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1357–1379, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1357-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1357-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Runoff and erosion increase after fire, leading to a greater likelihood of floods and debris flows. We monitored debris flow activity following a fire in western New Mexico, USA, and observed 16 debris flows over a <2-year monitoring period. Rainstorms with recurrence intervals of approximately 1 year were sufficient to initiate debris flows. All debris flows initiated during the first several months following the fire, indicating a rapid decrease in debris flow susceptibility over time.
Ken'ichi Koshimizu, Satoshi Ishimaru, Fumitoshi Imaizumi, and Gentaro Kawakami
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1287–1301, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1287-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1287-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Morphological conditions of drainage basins that classify the presence or absence of debris flow fans were analyzed in areas with different rock strength using decision tree analysis. The relief ratio is the most important morphological factor regardless of the geology. However, the thresholds of morphological parameters needed for forming debris flow fans differ depending on the geology. Decision tree analysis is an effective tool for evaluating the debris flow risk for each geology.
Daniel Bolliger, Fritz Schlunegger, and Brian W. McArdell
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1035–1049, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1035-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1035-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We analysed data from the Illgraben debris flow monitoring station, Switzerland, and we modelled these flows with a debris flow runout model. We found that no correlation exists between the grain size distribution, the mineralogical composition of the matrix, and the debris flow properties. The flow properties rather appear to be determined by the flow volume, from which most other parameters can be derived.
Yuntao Zhou, Xiaoyan Zhao, Guangze Zhang, Bernd Wünnemann, Jiajia Zhang, and Minghui Meng
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 891–906, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-891-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-891-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We developed three rock bridge models to analyze 3D stability and deformation behaviors of the Tizicao landslide and found that the contact surface model with high strength parameters combines advantages of the intact rock mass model in simulating the deformation of slopes with rock bridges and the modeling advantage of the Jennings model. The results help in choosing a rock bridge model to simulate landslide stability and reveal the influence laws of rock bridges on the stability of landslides.
Ashok Dahal, Hakan Tanyas, Cees van Westen, Mark van der Meijde, Paul Martin Mai, Raphaël Huser, and Luigi Lombardo
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 823–845, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-823-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-823-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We propose a modeling approach capable of recognizing slopes that may generate landslides, as well as how large these mass movements may be. This protocol is implemented, tested, and validated with data that change in both space and time via an Ensemble Neural Network architecture.
Li-Ru Luo, Zhi-Xiang Yu, Li-Jun Zhang, Qi Wang, Lin-Xu Liao, and Li Peng
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 631–649, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-631-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-631-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We performed field investigations on a rockfall near Jiguanshan National Forest Park, Chengdu. Vital information was obtained from an unmanned aerial vehicle survey. A finite element model was created to reproduce the damage evolution. We found that the impact kinetic energy was below the design protection energy. Improper member connections prevent the barrier from producing significant deformation to absorb energy. Damage is avoided by improving the ability of the nets and ropes to slide.
Sudhanshu Dixit, Srikrishnan Siva Subramanian, Piyush Srivastava, Ali P. Yunus, Tapas Ranjan Martha, and Sumit Sen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 465–480, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-465-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-465-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Rainfall intensity–duration (ID) thresholds can aid in the prediction of natural hazards. Large-scale sediment disasters like landslides, debris flows, and flash floods happen frequently in the Himalayas because of their propensity for intense precipitation events. We provide a new framework that combines the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model with a regionally distributed numerical model for debris flows to analyse and predict intense rainfall-induced landslides in the Himalayas.
Jacob B. Woodard, Benjamin B. Mirus, Nathan J. Wood, Kate E. Allstadt, Benjamin A. Leshchinsky, and Matthew M. Crawford
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1–12, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Dividing landscapes into hillslopes greatly improves predictions of landslide potential across landscapes, but their scaling is often arbitrarily set and can require significant computing power to delineate. Here, we present a new computer program that can efficiently divide landscapes into meaningful slope units scaled to best capture landslide processes. The results of this work will allow an improved understanding of landslide potential and can help reduce the impacts of landslides worldwide.
Anne Felsberg, Zdenko Heyvaert, Jean Poesen, Thomas Stanley, and Gabriëlle J. M. De Lannoy
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3805–3821, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3805-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3805-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The Probabilistic Hydrological Estimation of LandSlides (PHELS) model combines ensembles of landslide susceptibility and of hydrological predictor variables to provide daily, global ensembles of hazard for hydrologically triggered landslides. Testing different hydrological predictors showed that the combination of rainfall and soil moisture performed best, with the lowest number of missed and false alarms. The ensemble approach allowed the estimation of the associated prediction uncertainty.
Jiao Wang, Zhangxing Wang, Guanhua Sun, and Hongming Luo
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-181, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-181, 2023
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
By a simplified formula linking rainfall and groundwater level, the rise of the phreatic surface within the slope can be obtained. Then, we derive the calculation of the seepage force. A global analysis method that considers both seepage and seismic forces is proposed to determine the safety factor of slopes subjected to the combined effect of rainfall and earthquake. The reliability of the proposed method is also verified with two examples combining software calculations and previous results.
Rex L. Baum, Dianne L. Brien, Mark E. Reid, William H. Schulz, and Matthew J. Tello
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-185, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-185, 2023
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
We mapped potential for heavy rainfall to cause landslides in part of the central mountains of Puerto Rico using new tools for estimating soil depth and quasi-3D slope stability. Potential ground-failure locations correlate well with the spatial density of landslides from Hurricane Maria. The smooth boundaries of the very high and high ground-failure susceptibility zones enclose 75 and 90 percent, respectively, of observed landslides. The maps can help mitigate ground-failure hazards.
Xushan Shi, Bo Chai, Juan Du, Wei Wang, and Bo Liu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3425–3443, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3425-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3425-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
A 3D stability analysis method is proposed for biased rockfall with external erosion. Four failure modes are considered according to rockfall evolution processes, including partial damage of underlying soft rock and overall failure of hard rock blocks. This method is validated with the biased rockfalls in the Sichuan Basin, China. The critical retreat ratio from low to moderate rockfall susceptibility is 0.33. This method could facilitate rockfall early identification and risk mitigation.
Marius Schneider, Nicolas Oestreicher, Thomas Ehrat, and Simon Loew
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3337–3354, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3337-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3337-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Rockfalls and their hazards are typically treated as statistical events based on rockfall catalogs, but only a few complete rockfall inventories are available today. Here, we present new results from a Doppler radar rockfall alarm system, which has operated since 2018 at a high frequency under all illumination and weather conditions at a site where frequent rockfall events threaten a village and road. The new data set is used to investigate rockfall triggers in an active rockslide complex.
Annette I. Patton, Lisa V. Luna, Joshua J. Roering, Aaron Jacobs, Oliver Korup, and Benjamin B. Mirus
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3261–3284, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3261-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3261-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Landslide warning systems often use statistical models to predict landslides based on rainfall. They are typically trained on large datasets with many landslide occurrences, but in rural areas large datasets may not exist. In this study, we evaluate which statistical model types are best suited to predicting landslides and demonstrate that even a small landslide inventory (five storms) can be used to train useful models for landslide early warning when non-landslide events are also included.
Sandra Melzner, Marco Conedera, Johannes Hübl, and Mauro Rossi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3079–3093, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3079-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3079-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The estimation of the temporal frequency of the involved rockfall processes is an important part in hazard and risk assessments. Different methods can be used to collect and analyse rockfall data. From a statistical point of view, rockfall datasets are nearly always incomplete. Accurate data collection approaches and the application of statistical methods on existing rockfall data series as reported in this study should be better considered in rockfall hazard and risk assessments in the future.
Katherine R. Barnhart, Christopher R. Miller, Francis K. Rengers, and Jason W. Kean
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1892, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1892, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Debris flows are a type of fast-moving landslide that start from shallow landslides or during intense rain. Infrastructure located downstream of watersheds susceptible to debris flows may be damaged should a debris flow reach them. We present and evaluate an approach to forecast building damage caused by debris flows. We test three alternative models for simulating the motion of debris flows and find that only one can forecast the correct number and spatial pattern of damaged buildings.
Stefan Hergarten
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3051–3063, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3051-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3051-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Rockslides are a major hazard in mountainous regions. In formerly glaciated regions, the disposition mainly arises from oversteepened topography and decreases through time. However, little is known about this decrease and thus about the present-day hazard of huge, potentially catastrophic rockslides. This paper presents a new theoretical framework that explains the decrease in maximum rockslide size through time and predicts the present-day frequency of large rockslides for the European Alps.
Colin K. Bloom, Corinne Singeisen, Timothy Stahl, Andrew Howell, Chris Massey, and Dougal Mason
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2987–3013, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2987-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2987-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Landslides are often observed on coastlines following large earthquakes, but few studies have explored this occurrence. Here, statistical modelling of landslides triggered by the 2016 Kaikōura earthquake in New Zealand is used to investigate factors driving coastal earthquake-induced landslides. Geology, steep slopes, and shaking intensity are good predictors of landslides from the Kaikōura event. Steeper slopes close to the coast provide the best explanation for a high landslide density.
Praveen Kumar, Priyanka Priyanka, Kala Venkata Uday, and Varun Dutt
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1417, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1417, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Our study focuses on predicting soil movement to mitigate landslide risks. We develop machine learning models with oversampling techniques to address the class imbalance in monitoring data. The dynamic ensemble model with K-Means SMOTE achieves high accuracy (99.68 %), precision, recall, and F1-score, followed by RF with K-Means SMOTE. Our findings highlight the potential of these models to improve soil movement predictions in landslide-prone areas.
Carlo Tacconi Stefanelli, William Frodella, Francesco Caleca, Zhanar Raimbekova, Ruslan Umuralievd, and Veronica Tofani
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-140, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-140, 2023
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
Central Asia regions are characterized by active tectonics, high mountains with glaciers and strong rainfall. These predisposing factors make large landslides a serious threat in the area and a source of potential damming scenarios which endanger the population. To prevent this, a semi-automated GIS-based mapping method, centred on a bivariate correlation of morphometric parameters, was applied to spatially assess the rivers obstruction in Central Asia.
Yi-Min Huang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2649–2662, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2649-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2649-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Debris flows are common hazards in Taiwan, and debris-flow early warning is important for disaster responses. The rainfall thresholds of debris flows are analyzed and determined in terms of rainfall intensity, accumulated rainfall, and rainfall duration, based on case histories in Taiwan. These thresholds are useful for disaster management, and the cases in Taiwan are useful for global debris-flow databases.
Davide Notti, Martina Cignetti, Danilo Godone, and Daniele Giordan
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2625–2648, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2625-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2625-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We developed a cost-effective and user-friendly approach to map shallow landslides using free satellite data. Our methodology involves analysing the pre- and post-event NDVI variation to semi-automatically detect areas potentially affected by shallow landslides (PLs). Additionally, we have created Google Earth Engine scripts to rapidly compute NDVI differences and time series of affected areas. Datasets and codes are stored in an open data repository for improvement by the scientific community.
Simon Seelig, Thomas Wagner, Karl Krainer, Michael Avian, Marc Olefs, Klaus Haslinger, and Gerfried Winkler
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2547–2568, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2547-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2547-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
A rapid sequence of cascading events involving thermokarst lake outburst, rock glacier front failure, debris flow development, and river blockage hit an alpine valley in Austria during summer 2019. We analyze the environmental conditions initiating the process chain and identify the rapid evolution of a thermokarst channel network as the main driver. Our results highlight the need to account for permafrost degradation in debris flow hazard assessment studies.
Camilla Lanfranconi, Paolo Frattini, Gianluca Sala, Giuseppe Dattola, Davide Bertolo, Juanjuan Sun, and Giovanni Battista Crosta
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2349–2363, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2349-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2349-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This paper presents a study on rockfall dynamics and hazard, examining the impact of the presence of trees along slope and block fragmentation. We compared rockfall simulations that explicitly model the presence of trees and fragmentation with a classical approach that accounts for these phenomena in model parameters (both the hazard and the kinetic energy change). We also used a non-parametric probabilistic rockfall hazard analysis method for hazard mapping.
Ascanio Rosi, William Frodella, Nicola Nocentini, Francesco Caleca, Hans Balder Havenith, Alexander Strom, Mirzo Saidov, Gany Amirgalievich Bimurzaev, and Veronica Tofani
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2229–2250, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2229-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2229-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This work was carried out within the Strengthening Financial Resilience and Accelerating Risk Reduction in Central Asia (SFRARR) project and is focused on the first landslide susceptibility analysis at a regional scale for Central Asia. The most detailed available landslide inventories were implemented in a random forest model. The final aim was to provide a useful tool for reduction strategies to landslide scientists, practitioners, and administrators.
Francis K. Rengers, Luke A. McGuire, Katherine R. Barnhart, Ann M. Youberg, Daniel Cadol, Alexander N. Gorr, Olivia J. Hoch, Rebecca Beers, and Jason W. Kean
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2075–2088, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2075-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2075-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Debris flows often occur after wildfires. These debris flows move water, sediment, and wood. The wood can get stuck in channels, creating a dam that holds boulders, cobbles, sand, and muddy material. We investigated how the channel width and wood length influenced how much sediment is stored. We also used a series of equations to back calculate the debris flow speed using the breaking threshold of wood. These data will help improve models and provide insight into future field investigations.
Kristian Svennevig, Julian Koch, Marie Keiding, and Gregor Luetzenburg
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-68, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-68, 2023
Preprint under review for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, we examine how future climate change may affect activity in landslides in Denmark using publicly available data. Our findings show that climate change will increase groundwater table depth, which will lead to increased landslide activity. During past events of extremely wet winters in this region, landslides caused damage to buildings and infrastructure.
Maxime Morel, Guillaume Piton, Damien Kuss, Guillaume Evin, and Caroline Le Bouteiller
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1769–1787, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1769-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1769-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
In mountain catchments, damage during floods is generally primarily driven by the supply of a massive amount of sediment. Predicting how much sediment can be delivered by frequent and infrequent events is thus important in hazard studies. This paper uses data gathered during the maintenance operation of about 100 debris retention basins to build simple equations aiming at predicting sediment supply from simple parameters describing the upstream catchment.
Elsa S. Culler, Ben Livneh, Balaji Rajagopalan, and Kristy F. Tiampo
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1631–1652, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1631-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1631-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Landslides have often been observed in the aftermath of wildfires. This study explores regional patterns in the rainfall that caused landslides both after fires and in unburned locations. In general, landslides that occur after fires are triggered by less rainfall, confirming that fire helps to set the stage for landslides. However, there are regional differences in the ways in which fire impacts landslides, such as the size and direction of shifts in the seasonality of landslides after fires.
Stefan Steger, Mateo Moreno, Alice Crespi, Peter James Zellner, Stefano Luigi Gariano, Maria Teresa Brunetti, Massimo Melillo, Silvia Peruccacci, Francesco Marra, Robin Kohrs, Jason Goetz, Volkmar Mair, and Massimiliano Pittore
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1483–1506, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1483-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1483-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We present a novel data-driven modelling approach to determine season-specific critical precipitation conditions for landslide occurrence. It is shown that the amount of precipitation required to trigger a landslide in South Tyrol varies from season to season. In summer, a higher amount of preparatory precipitation is required to trigger a landslide, probably due to denser vegetation and higher temperatures. We derive dynamic thresholds that directly relate to hit rates and false-alarm rates.
Yaspal Sundriyal, Vipin Kumar, Neha Chauhan, Sameeksha Kaushik, Rahul Ranjan, and Mohit Kumar Punia
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1425–1431, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1425-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1425-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The NW Himalaya has been one of the most affected terrains of the Himalaya, subject to disastrous landslides. This article focuses on two towns (Joshimath and Bhatwari) of the NW Himalaya, which have been witnessing subsidence for decades. We used a slope stability simulation to determine the response of the hillslopes accommodating these towns under various loading conditions. We found that the maximum displacement in these hillslopes might reach up to 20–25 m.
Yu Zhuang, Aiguo Xing, Perry Bartelt, Muhammad Bilal, and Zhaowei Ding
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1257–1266, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1257-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1257-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Tree destruction is often used to back calculate the air blast impact region and to estimate the air blast power. Here we established a novel model to assess air blast power using tree destruction information. We find that the dynamic magnification effect makes the trees easier to damage by a landslide-induced air blast, but the large tree deformation would weaken the effect. Bending and overturning are two likely failure modes, which depend heavily on the properties of trees.
Suzanne Lapillonne, Firmin Fontaine, Frédéric Liebault, Vincent Richefeu, and Guillaume Piton
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1241–1256, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1241-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1241-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Debris flows are fast flows most often found in torrential watersheds. They are composed of two phases: a liquid phase which can be mud-like and a granular phase, including large boulders, transported along with the flow. Due to their destructive nature, accessing features of the flow, such as velocity and flow height, is difficult. We present a protocol to analyse debris flow data and results of the Réal torrent in France. These results will help experts in designing models.
Carlos Millán-Arancibia and Waldo Lavado-Casimiro
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1191–1206, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1191-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1191-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This study is the first approximation of regional rainfall thresholds for shallow landslide occurrence in Peru. This research was generated from a gridded precipitation data and landslide inventory. The analysis showed that the threshold based on the combination of mean daily intensity–duration variables gives the best results for separating rainfall events that generate landslides. Through this work the potential of thresholds for landslide monitoring at the regional scale is demonstrated.
Luca Verrucci, Giovanni Forte, Melania De Falco, Paolo Tommasi, Giuseppe Lanzo, Kevin W. Franke, and Antonio Santo
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1177–1190, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1177-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1177-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Stability analyses in static and seismic conditions were performed on four rockslides that occurred during the main shocks of the 2016–2017 central Italy seismic sequence. These results also indicate that specific structural features of the slope must carefully be accounted for in evaluating potential hazards on transportation infrastructures in mountainous regions.
Joshua N. Jones, Georgina L. Bennett, Claudia Abancó, Mark A. M. Matera, and Fibor J. Tan
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1095–1115, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1095-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1095-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We modelled where landslides occur in the Philippines using landslide data from three typhoon events in 2009, 2018, and 2019. These models show where landslides occurred within the landscape. By comparing the different models, we found that the 2019 landslides were occurring all across the landscape, whereas the 2009 and 2018 landslides were mostly occurring at specific slope angles and aspects. This shows that landslide susceptibility must be considered variable through space and time.
Shalev Siman-Tov and Francesco Marra
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1079–1093, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1079-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1079-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Debris flows represent a threat to infrastructure and the population. In arid areas, they are observed when heavy rainfall hits steep slopes with sediments. Here, we use digital surface models and radar rainfall data to detect and characterize the triggering and non-triggering rainfall conditions. We find that rainfall intensity alone is insufficient to explain the triggering. We suggest that antecedent rainfall could represent a critical factor for debris flow triggering in arid regions.
Xun Huang, Zhijian Zhang, and Guoping Xiang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 871–889, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-871-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-871-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
A sensitivity analysis on the building impact force resulting from the representative built environment parameters is executed through the FLOW-3D model. The surrounding buildings' properties, especially the azimuthal angle, have been confirmed to play significant roles in determining the peak impact forces. The single and combined effects of built environments are analyzed in detail. This will improve understanding of vulnerability assessment and migration design against debris flow hazards.
Jean-Claude Maki Mateso, Charles L. Bielders, Elise Monsieurs, Arthur Depicker, Benoît Smets, Théophile Tambala, Luc Bagalwa Mateso, and Olivier Dewitte
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 643–666, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-643-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-643-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This research highlights the importance of human activities on the occurrence of landslides and the need to consider this context when studying hillslope instability patterns in regions under anthropogenic pressure. Also, this study highlights the importance of considering the timing of landslides and hence the added value of using historical information for compiling an inventory.
Jakob Rom, Florian Haas, Tobias Heckmann, Moritz Altmann, Fabian Fleischer, Camillo Ressl, Sarah Betz-Nutz, and Michael Becht
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 601–622, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-601-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-601-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, an area-wide slope-type debris flow record has been established for Horlachtal, Austria, since 1947 based on historical and recent remote sensing data. Spatial and temporal analyses show variations in debris flow activity in space and time in a high-alpine region. The results can contribute to a better understanding of past slope-type debris flow dynamics in the context of extreme precipitation events and their possible future development.
Tom Birien and Francis Gauthier
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 343–360, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-343-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-343-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
On highly fractured rockwalls such as those found in northern Gaspésie, most rockfalls are triggered by weather conditions. This study highlights that in winter, rockfall frequency is 12 times higher during a superficial thaw than during a cold period in which temperature remains below 0 °C. In summer, rockfall frequency is 22 times higher during a heavy rainfall event than during a mainly dry period. This knowledge could be used to implement a risk management strategy.
Nunziarita Palazzolo, David J. Peres, Enrico Creaco, and Antonino Cancelliere
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 279–291, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-279-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-279-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We propose an approach exploiting PCA to derive hydrometeorological landslide-triggering thresholds using multi-layered soil moisture data from ERA5-Land reanalysis. Comparison of thresholds based on single- and multi-layered soil moisture information provides a means to identify the significance of multi-layered data for landslide triggering in a region. In Sicily, the proposed approach yields thresholds with a higher performance than traditional precipitation-based ones (TSS = 0.71 vs. 0.50).
Raphael Knevels, Helene Petschko, Herwig Proske, Philip Leopold, Aditya N. Mishra, Douglas Maraun, and Alexander Brenning
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 205–229, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-205-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-205-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
In summer 2009 and 2014, rainfall events occurred in the Styrian Basin (Austria), triggering thousands of landslides. Landslide storylines help to show potential future changes under changing environmental conditions. The often neglected uncertainty quantification was the aim of this study. We found uncertainty arising from the landslide model to be of the same order as climate scenario uncertainty. Understanding the dimensions of uncertainty is crucial for allowing informed decision-making.
Fabian Walter, Elias Hodel, Erik S. Mannerfelt, Kristen Cook, Michael Dietze, Livia Estermann, Michaela Wenner, Daniel Farinotti, Martin Fengler, Lukas Hammerschmidt, Flavia Hänsli, Jacob Hirschberg, Brian McArdell, and Peter Molnar
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 4011–4018, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-4011-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-4011-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Debris flows are dangerous sediment–water mixtures in steep terrain. Their formation takes place in poorly accessible terrain where instrumentation cannot be installed. Here we propose to monitor such source terrain with an autonomous drone for mapping sediments which were left behind by debris flows or may contribute to future events. Short flight intervals elucidate changes of such sediments, providing important information for landscape evolution and the likelihood of future debris flows.
Marc Peruzzetto, Yoann Legendre, Aude Nachbaur, Thomas J. B. Dewez, Yannick Thiery, Clara Levy, and Benoit Vittecoq
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3973–3992, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3973-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3973-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Volcanic edifices result from successive construction and dismantling phases. Thus, the geological units forming volcanoes display complex geometries. We show that such geometries can be reconstructed thanks to aerial views, topographic surveys and photogrammetric models. In our case study of the Samperre cliff (Martinique, Lesser Antilles), it allows us to link destabilizations from a rocky cliff to the existence of a filled paleo-valley and estimate a potentially unstable volume.
Abdellah Khouz, Jorge Trindade, Sérgio C. Oliveira, Fatima El Bchari, Blaid Bougadir, Ricardo A. C. Garcia, and Mourad Jadoud
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3793–3814, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3793-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3793-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The aim of this study was to assess the landslide susceptibility of the rocky coast of Essaouira using the information value model. The resulting susceptibility maps could be used for both environmental protection and general planning of future development activities.
Kamal Rana, Nishant Malik, and Ugur Ozturk
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3751–3764, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3751-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3751-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The landslide hazard models assist in mitigating losses due to landslides. However, these models depend on landslide databases, which often have missing triggering information, rendering these databases unusable for landslide hazard models. In this work, we developed a Python library, Landsifier, consisting of three different methods to identify the triggers of landslides. These methods can classify landslide triggers with high accuracy using only a landslide polygon shapefile as an input.
Axel A. J. Deijns, Olivier Dewitte, Wim Thiery, Nicolas d'Oreye, Jean-Philippe Malet, and François Kervyn
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3679–3700, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3679-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3679-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Landslides and flash floods are rainfall-induced processes that often co-occur and interact, generally very quickly. In mountainous cloud-covered environments, determining when these processes occur remains challenging. We propose a regional methodology using open-access satellite radar images that allow for the timing of landslide and flash floods events, in the contrasting landscapes of tropical Africa, with an accuracy of up to a few days. The methodology shows potential for transferability.
Judith Uwihirwe, Alessia Riveros, Hellen Wanjala, Jaap Schellekens, Frederiek Sperna Weiland, Markus Hrachowitz, and Thom A. Bogaard
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3641–3661, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3641-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3641-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This study compared gauge-based and satellite-based precipitation products. Similarly, satellite- and hydrological model-derived soil moisture was compared to in situ soil moisture and used in landslide hazard assessment and warning. The results reveal the cumulative 3 d rainfall from the NASA-GPM to be the most effective landslide trigger. The modelled antecedent soil moisture in the root zone was the most informative hydrological variable for landslide hazard assessment and warning in Rwanda.
Hans-Balder Havenith, Kelly Guerrier, Romy Schlögel, Anika Braun, Sophia Ulysse, Anne-Sophie Mreyen, Karl-Henry Victor, Newdeskarl Saint-Fleur, Léna Cauchie, Dominique Boisson, and Claude Prépetit
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3361–3384, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3361-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3361-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We present a new landslide inventory for the 2021, M 7.2, Haiti, earthquake. We compare characteristics of this inventory with those of the 2010 seismically induced landslides, highlighting the much larger total area of 2021 landslides. This fact could be related to the larger earthquake magnitude in 2021, to the more central location of the fault segment ruptured in 2021 with respect to coastal zones, and/or to possible climatic preconditioning of slope failures in the 2021 affected area.
Cited articles
Albuquerque, J. P. D., Herfort, B., and Eckle, M.: The Tasks of the Crowd: A Typology of Tasks in Geographic Information Crowdsourcing and a Case Study in Humanitarian Mapping, Remote Sens., 8, 1–22, https://doi.org/10.3390/rs8100859, 2016.
Ansari, H., Zan, F. D., and Bamler, R.: Efficient Phase Estimation for Interferogram Stacks, IEEE T. Geosci. Remote, 56, 4109–4125, 10.1109/TGRS.2018.2826045. 2018.
Avelar, A. S., Netto, A. L. C., Lacerda, W. A, Becker, L. B., and Mendonça, M. B.: Mechanisms of the recent catastrophic landslides in the mountainous range of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, in: Landslide science and practice. Springer, Berlin Heidelberg, 265–270, ISBN 978-3-642-31337-0-34, 2013.
Ávila, F. F., Alvalá, R. C., Mendes, R. M., and Amore, D. J.: The influence of land use/land cover variability and rainfall intensity in triggering landslides: a back-analysis study via physically based models, Nat. Hazards, 105, 1139–1161, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-020-04324-x, 2021.
Brasil: Lei no 12.651, de 25 de maio de 2012, https://www.planalto.gov.br/ccivil_03/_ato2011-2014/2012/lei/l12651.htm (last access: 1 May 2022), 2012.
Carvalho-Filho, A., Lumbreras, J. F., and Santos, R. D.: Os Solos do Estado do Rio de Janeiro, CPRM, Brasília, Brazil, 36 pp., https://www.embrapa.br/busca-de-publicacoes/-/publicacao/1090208/os-solos-do-estado-do-rio-de-janeiro (last access: 6 May 2022), 2000.
Catani, F., Lagomarsino, D., Segoni, S., and Tofani, V.: Landslide susceptibility estimation by random forests technique: sensitivity and scaling issues, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 13, 2815–2831, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-2815-2013, 2013.
Chau, K. T. and Chan, J. E.: Regional bias of landslide data in generating susceptibility maps using logistic regression: Case of Hong Kong Island, Landslides, 2, 280–290, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10346-005-0024-x, 2005.
Chen, C. W. and Zebker, H. A.: Two-dimensional phase unwrapping with use of statistical models for cost functions in nonlinear optimization, J. Opt. Soc. Am. A, 18, 338–351, https://doi.org/10.1364/JOSAA.18.000338, 2001.
Chen, W., Xie, X., Wang, J., Pradhan, B., Hong, H., Bui, D. T., Duan, Z., and Ma, J.: A comparative study of logistic model tree, random forest, and classification and regression tree models for spatial prediction of landslide susceptibility, Catena, 151, 147–160, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.catena.2016.11.032, 2017.
Costanzo, D., Rotigliano, E., Irigaray, C., Jiménez-Perálvarez, J. D., and Chacón, J.: Factors selection in landslide susceptibility modelling on large scale following the gis matrix method: application to the river Beiro basin (Spain), Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 12, 327–340, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-12-327-2012, 2012.
CPRM (Geological Survey of Brazil): Avaliação técnica pós-desastre, Petropolis, RJ 2022, Ministry of Mines and Energy MME, 9 pp., https://rigeo.cprm.gov.br, last access: 1 May 2022.
Dai, F. C. and Lee, C. F.: Landslide characteristics and slope instability modeling using GIS, Lantau Island, Hong Kong, Geomorphology, 42, 213–228, https://doi.org/10.1016/s0169-555x(01)00087-3, 2002.
Dean, W.: A ferro e fogo: a história e a devastação da Mata Atlântica brasileira, Companhia das Letras, São Paulo, ISBN 9788571645905, 1996.
Dembélé, M. and Zwart, S. J.: Evaluation and Comparison of Satellite-Based Rainfall Products in Burkina Faso, West Africa, Int. J. Remote Sens., 37, 3995–4014, https://doi.org/10.1080/01431161.2016.1207258, 2016.
Dias, H. C., Hölbling, D., and Grohmann, C. H.: Landslide Susceptibility Mapping in Brazil: A Review, Geosciences, 11, 1–15, https://doi.org/10.3390/geosciences11100425, 2021.
Dias, M. C. A., Saito, S. M., Alvalá, R. C., Stenner, C., Pinho, G., Nobre, C. A., Fonseca, M. R. S., Santos, C., Amadeu, P., Silva, D., Lima, C. O., Ribeiro, J., Nascimento, F., and Corrêa, C. O.: Estimation of exposed population to landslides and floods risk areas in Brazil, on intra-urban scale, Int. J. Disast. Risk Re., 31, 449–459, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2018.06.002, 2018.
Dourado, F., Arraes, T. C., and Silva, M. F.: The “Megadesastre” in the Mountain Region of Rio de Janeiro State – Causes, Mechanisms of Mass Movements and Spatial Allocation of Investments for Reconstruction Post Disaster, Anuário do Instituto de Geeociências, 35, 43–54, https://doi.org/10.11137/2012_2_43_54, 2012.
Fattahi, H., Agram, P. S., Tymofyeyeva, E., and Bekaert, D. P.: FRInGE; Full-Resolution InSAR time series using Generalized Eigenvectors, American Geophysical Union, Fall Meeting 2019, 9–13 December 2019, San Francisco, CA, USA, abstract #G11B-0514, https://agu.confex.com/agu/fm19/meetingapp.cgi/Paper/497561 (last access: 6 May 2022), 2019.
FIRJAN: Firjan estima perda de R$ 665 milhões no PIB de Petrópolis após a forte chuva da última semana, FIRJAN, https://firjan.com.br/noticias/firjan-estima-perda-de-r-665-milhoes-no-pib-de-petropolis-apos-a-forte-chuva-da-ultima-semana-1.htm, last access: 20 March 2022.
Fonseca, M. J. G., Derze, G. R., Barreto, A. M., and Williams, G. H.: Mapa Geológico do Estado do Rio de Janeiro, Technical report, Departamento Nacional de Produção Mineral (DPMN), Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, 141 pp., http://www.cprm.gov.br/publique/Gestao-Territorial/Geologia%2C-Meio-Ambiente-e-Saude/Projeto-Rio-de-Janeiro-3498.html (last access: 6 May 2022), 1998.
Fundação SOS Mata Atlântica: Atlas dos Remanescentes Florestais da Mata Atlântica período 2016–2017, Technical report, Fundação SOS Mata Atlântica, Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais, São Paulo, https://cms.sosma.org.br/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/SOSMA_Atlas-da-Mata-Atlantica_2019-2020.pdf(last access: 6 May 2022), 2018.
Funk, C., Peterson, P., Landsfeld, M., Pedreros, D., Verdin, J., Shukla, S., Husak, G., Rowland, J., Harrison, L., Hoell, A., and Michaelsen, J.: The climate hazards infrared precipitation with stations – a new environmental record for monitoring extremes, Sci. Data, 2, 150066, https://doi.org/10.1038/sdata.2015.66, 2015.
Galarneau, T. J. and Bosart, L. F.: Ridge Rollers: Mesoscale disturbances on the periphery of cutoff anticyclones, 21st Conf. on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/17th Conf. on Numerical Weather Prediction, 28 July–5 August 2005, Atlanta, GA, USA, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 3.2, https://ams.confex.com/ams/WAFNWP34BC/techprogram/paper_94414.htm (last access: 2 May 2022), 2006.
Goldblatt, R., Jones, N., and Mannix, J.: Assessing OpenStreetMap Completeness for Management of Natural Disaster by Means of Remote Sensing: A Case Study of Three Small Island States (Haiti, Dominica and St. Lucia), Remote Sens., 12, 1–25, https://doi.org/10.3390/rs12010118, 2020.
Gonçalves, L. F. H.: Avaliação e Diagnóstico da Distribuição Espacial e Temporal dos Movimentos de Massa com a Expansão da Área Urbana em Petrópolis-RJ, PhD Thesis, Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro-UFRJ, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, 1998.
Guerra, A.: Catastrophic events in Petrópolis city (Rio de Janeiro state), between 1940 and 1990, GeoJournal, 37, 349–354, https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00814015, 1995.
Guzzetti, F., Carrara, A., Cardinali, M., and Reichenbach, P.: Landslide hazard evaluation: A review of current techniques and their application in a multi-scale study, Central Italy, Geomorphology, 31, 181–216, https://doi.org/10.1016/s0169-555x(99)00078-1, 1999.
Hermance, J. F. and Sulieman, H. M.: Adequacy of the daily TMPA 3B42 high-resolution satellite precipitation product for monitoring hydrometeorological hazards in the Southeast Sahel of Africa, Int. J. Remote Sens., 39, 2579–2596, https://doi.org/10.1080/01431161.2018.1430405, 2018.
Hersbach, H., Bell, B., Berrisford, P., Hirahara, S., Horányi, A., Muñoz-Sabater, J., Nicolas, J., Peubey, C., Radu, R., Schepers, D., Simmons, A., Soci, C., Abdalla, S., Abellan, X., Balsamo, G., Bechtold, P., Biavati, G., Bidlot, J., Bonavita, M., Chiara, G., Dahlgren, P., Dee, D., Diamantakis, M., Dragani, R., Flemming, J., Forbes, R., Fuentes, M., Geer, A., Haimberger, L., Healy, S., Hogan, R. J., Hólm, E., Janisková, M., Keeley, S., Laloyaux, P., Lopez, P., Lupu, C., Radnoti, G., Rosnay, P., Rozum, I., Vamborg, F., Villaume, S., and Thépaut, J.-N.: The ERA5 global reanalysis, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 146, 1999–2049, 2020.
Huffman, G. J., Bolvin, D. T., Braithwaite, D., Hsu, K.-L., Joyce, R. J., Kidd, C., Nelkin, E. J., Sorooshian, S., Stocker, E. F., Tan, J., Wolff, D. B., and Xie, P.: Satellite Precipitation Measurement: Volume 1, edited by: Levizzani, V., Kidd, C., Kirschbaum, D. B., Kummerow, C. D., Nakamura, K., and Turk, F. J., 343–353, Springer Cham, ISBN 978-3030245672, 2020.
IBGE: Cidades, Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística, https://cidades.ibge.gov.br/brasil/retropolisis/panorama, last access: 25 September 2018.
Janowiak, J., Joyce, B., and Xie, P.: NCEP/CPC L3 Half Hourly 4km Global (60S – 60N) Merged IR V1, edited by: Savtchenko, A., Greenbelt, MD, Goddard Earth Sciences Data and Information Services Center (GES DISC) [data set], https://doi.org/10.5067/P4HZB9N27EKU, 2017.
Jiang, L. and Bauer-Gottwein, P.: How do GPM IMERG precipitation estimates perform as hydrological model forcing? Evaluation for 300 catchments across Mainland China, J. Hydrol., 572, 486–500, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2019.03.042, 2019.
Jolivet, R., Agram, Piyush, S., Lin, Y. N., Simons, M., Doin, M.-P., Peltzer, G., and Li, Z.: Improving InSAR geodesy using Global Atmospheric Models, J. Geophys. Res.-Sol. Ea., 119, 2324–2341, https://doi.org/10.1002/2013JB010588, 2014.
Kanwal, S., Atif, S., and Shafiq, M.: GIS based landslide susceptibility mapping of northern areas of Pakistan, a case study of Shigar and Shyok Basins, Geomat. Nat. Hazards Risk, 8, 348–366, https://doi.org/10.1080/19475705.2016.1220023, 2017.
Lambin, E. F. and Ehrlich, D.: The surface temperature-vegetation index space for land cover and land-cover change analysis, Int. J. Remote Sens., 17, 463–487, https://doi.org/10.1080/01431169608949021, 1996.
Li, H., Herfort, B., Huang, W., Zia, M., and Zipf, A.: Exploration of OpenStreetMap missing built-up areas using twitter hierarchical clustering and deep learning in Mozambique, ISPRS J. Photogramm., 166, 41–51, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.isprsjprs.2020.05.007, 2020.
Maddox, R. A., Hoxit, L. R., Chappell, C. F., and Caracena, F.: Comparison of meteorological aspects of the Big Thompson and Rapid City flash floods, Mon. Weather Rev., 106, 375–389, 1978.
Marchezini, V. and Wisner, B.: Challenges for vulnerability reduction in Brazil: Insights from the PAR framework, in: Reduction of vulnerability to disasters: From knowledge to action, edited by: Marchzini, V., Wisner, B., Londe, L., RIMA, ISBN 978-85-7656-050-0, 2017.
Marengo, J. A. and Alves, L. M.: The 2011 intense rainfall and floods in Rio de Janeiro, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 93, S176, https://doi.org/10.1175/2012BAMSStateoftheClimate.1, 2012.
Martinotti, M. E., Pisano, L., Marchesini, I., Rossi, M., Peruccacci, S., Brunetti, M. T., Melillo, M., Amoruso, G., Loiacono, P., Vennari, C., Vessia, G., Trabace, M., Parise, M., and Guzzetti, F.: Landslides, floods and sinkholes in a karst environment: the 1–6 September 2014 Gargano event, southern Italy, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 467–480, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-467-2017, 2017.
Mendes, R. M., Andrade, M. R. M., Graminha, C. A., Prieto, C., Ávila, F. F., Camarinha, P. I.: Stability Analysis on Urban Slopes: Case Study of an Anthropogenic-Induced Landslide in São José dos Campos, Brazil, Geotech. Geol. Eng., 36, 599–610, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10706-017-0303-z, 2018a.
Mendes, R. M., de Andrade, M. R. M., Tomasella, J., de Moraes, M. A. E., and Scofield, G. B.: Understanding shallow landslides in Campos do Jordão municipality – Brazil: disentangling the anthropic effects from natural causes in the disaster of 2000, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 15–30, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-15-2018, 2018b.
Minghini, M. and Frassinelli, F.: OpenStreetMap history for intrinsic quality assessment: Is OSM up-to-date?, Open Geospatial Data Softw. Stand., 4, 1–17, https://doi.org/10.1186/s40965-019-0067-x, 2019.
Mitchell, M. J., Arritt, R. W., and Labas, K.: A climatology of the warm season Great Plains low-level jet using wind profiler observations, Weather Forecast., 10, 576–591, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0434(1995)010<0576:ACOTWS>2.0.CO;2, 1995.
Myers, N., Mittermeier, R. A., Mittermeier, C. G., Fonseca, G. A. B., and Kent, J.: Biodiversity hotspots for conservation priorities, Nature, 403, 853–858, https://doi.org/10.1038/35002501, 2000.
Nehren, U., Schlüter, S., Raeding, C., Sattler, D., and Hissa, H. (Eds.): Strategies and Tools for a Sustainable Rural Rio de Janeiro, Springer Series on Environmental Management, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-89644-1_20, 2018.
Ohlmacher, G. C.: Plan curvature and landslide probability in regions dominated by Earth flows and Earth Slides, Eng. Geol., 91, 117–134, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enggeo.2007.01.005, 2007.
Parida, B. R., Collado, W. B., Borah, R., Hazarika, M. K., and Samarakook, L.: Detecting drought-prone areas of rice agriculture using a MODIS-derivd soil moisture index, GIScience and Remote Sensing, 45, 109–129, 2008.
Penha, M. M., Ferrari, A. L., Junho, M. C. B., Souza, S. L. A., and Brennes, T. L.: Projeto Carta Geológica do Estado do Rio de Janeiro: Folha Itaipava, Technical report, vol. 1, Convênio DRM/IG-UFRJ, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, http://www.cprm.gov.br/publique/Gestao-Territorial/Geologia%2C-Meio-Ambiente-e-Saude/Projeto-Rio-de-Janeiro-3498.html (last access: 3 May 2022), 1981.
Pisano, L., Zumpano, V., Malek, Z., Rosskopf, C. M., and Parise, M.: Variations in the susceptibility to landslides, as a consequence of land cover changes: a look to the past, and another towards the future, Sci. Total Environ., 601–602, 1147–1159, 2017.
Reichenbach, P., Rossi, M., Malamud, B., Mihir, M., and Guzzetti, F.: A review of statistically-based landslide susceptibility models, Earth-Sci. Rev., 180, 60–91, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.earscirev.2018.03.001, 2018.
Reis, A. A., Fernandes, W. S., and Ramos, M.-H.: Assessing two precipitation data sources at basins of special interest to hydropower production in Brazil, Brazilian Journal of Water Resources, 25, 1–16, https://doi.org/10.1590/2318-0331.252020190068, 2020.
Rosi, A., Canavesi, V., Segoni, S., Nery, T. D., Catani, F., and Casagli, N.: Landslides in the Mountain Region of Rio de Janeiro: A Proposal for the Semi-Automated Definition of Multiple Rainfall Thresholds, Geosciences, 9, 1–15, https://doi.org/10.3390/geosciences9050203, 2019.
Schlossmacher, E. J.: An Iterative Technique for Absolute Deviations Curve Fitting, J. Am. Stat. Assoc., 68, 857–859, https://doi.org/10.2307/2284512, 1973.
Silva, R. F. B., Batistella, M., Moran, E. F., and Liu, D.: Land changes fostering Atlantic Forest transition in Brazil: Evidence from the Paraíba Valley, Prof. Geogr., 69, 80–93, https://doi.org/10.1080/00330124.2016.1178151, 2017.
Souza Jr., C. M., Shimbo, J. Z., Rosa, M. R., Parente, L. L., Alencar, A. A., Rudorff, B. F. T., Hasenack, H., Matsumoto, M., Ferreira, L. G., Souza-Filho, P. W. M., de Oliveira, S. W., Rocha, W. F., Fonseca, A. V., Marques, C. B., Diniz, C.,G., Costa, D., Monteiro, D., Rosa, E. R., Vélez-Martin, E., Weber, E. J., Lenti, F. E. B., Paternost, F. F., Pareyn, F.,G.,C., Siqueira, J. V., Viera, J. L., Neto, L. C. F., Saraiva, M. M., Sales, M. H., Salgado, M. P. G., Vasconcelos, R., Galano, S., Mesquita, V. V., and Azevedo, T.: Reconstructing Three Decades of Land Use and Land Cover Changes in Brazilian Biomes with Landsat Archive and Earth Engine, Remote Sens., 12, 1–17, https://doi.org/10.3390/rs12172735, 2020.
Wang, J., Dong, X., Kennedy, A., Hagenhoff, B., and Xi, B.: A regime-based evaluation of southern and northern great plains warm-season precipitation events in WRF, Weather Forecast., 34, 805–831, 2019.
Zhan, Z., Qin, Q., and Wang, X.: The Application of LST/NDVI Index for Monitoring Land Surface Moisture in Semiarid Area, Geoscience and Remote Sensing, IGARSS 2004, 2004 IEEE International Geoscience and Remote Sensing Symposium, 20–24 September 2004, Anchorage, AK, USA, IEEE, 3, 1551–1555, https://doi.org/10.1109/IGARSS.2004.1370609, 2004.
Short summary
The municipality of Petrópolis (approximately 305 687 inhabitants) is nestled in the mountains 68 km outside the city of Rio de Janeiro. On 15 February 2022, the city of Petrópolis in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, received an unusually high volume of rain within 3 h (258 mm). This resulted in flash floods and subsequent landslides that caused 231 fatalities, the deadliest landslide disaster recorded in Petrópolis. This work shows how the disaster was triggered.
The municipality of Petrópolis (approximately 305 687 inhabitants) is nestled in the mountains...
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint