Articles | Volume 22, issue 2
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-445-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-445-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
16 Feb 2022
Research article |
| 16 Feb 2022
| 16 Feb 2022
Multi-method monitoring of rockfall activity along the classic route up Mont Blanc (4809 m a.s.l.) to encourage adaptation by mountaineers
Jacques Mourey
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
EDYTEM, Savoie Mont-Blanc University, CNRS, 73000 Chambéry,
France
Interdisciplinary Center for Mountain Research, University of
Lausanne, Ch. de l'Institut 18, 1967 Bramois, Switzerland
Pascal Lacroix
ISTerre, IRD-CNRS-OSUG, Grenoble Alpes University, 38400
Saint-Martin-d'Hères, France
Pierre-Allain Duvillard
EDYTEM, Savoie Mont-Blanc University, CNRS, 73000 Chambéry,
France
STYX4D, 73370 Le Bourget du Lac, France
Guilhem Marsy
EDYTEM, Savoie Mont-Blanc University, CNRS, 73000 Chambéry,
France
LISTIC, Savoie Mont-Blanc University, Polytech Annecy-Chambéry,
Annecy-Chambéry, France
TENEVIA, 38240 Meylan, France
Marco Marcer
PACTE, Grenoble Alpes University, Alpine Geography Institute, CNRS,
38041 Grenoble, France
Emmanuel Malet
EDYTEM, Savoie Mont-Blanc University, CNRS, 73000 Chambéry,
France
Ludovic Ravanel
EDYTEM, Savoie Mont-Blanc University, CNRS, 73000 Chambéry,
France
Interdisciplinary Center for Mountain Research, University of
Lausanne, Ch. de l'Institut 18, 1967 Bramois, Switzerland
Related authors
No articles found.
Marco Marcer, Pierre-Allain Duvillard, Soňa Tomaškovičová, Steffen Ringsø Nielsen, André Revil, and Thomas Ingeman-Nielsen
The Cryosphere, 18, 1753–1771, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1753-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1753-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study models present and future rock wall temperatures in the mountains near Sisimiut, creating knowledge on mountain permafrost in Greenland for the first time. Bedrock is mostly frozen but also has temperatures near 0 oC, making it very sensitive to climate changes. Future climatic scenarios indicate a reduction in frozen rock wall areas. Since mountain permafrost thaw is linked to an increase in landslides, these results call for more efforts addressing mountain permafrost in Greenland.
Carlo Mologni, Marie Revel, Eric Chaumillon, Emmanuel Malet, Thibault Coulombier, Pierre Sabatier, Pierre Brigode, Hervé Gwenael, Anne-Lise Develle, Laure Schenini, Medhi Messous, Gourguen Davtian, Alain Carré, Delphine Bosch, Natacha Volto, Clément Ménard, Lamya Khalidi, and Fabien Arnaud
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-310, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-310, 2024
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Climate of the Past (CP).
Short summary
Short summary
The reactivity of local to regional hydrology and soil to global changes remains understated in East African climatic models. This paper demonstrates the importance of studies on regional hydro-systems feedbacks to global atmospheric anomalies, to better understand and mitigate the sometimes catastrophic effects of global warming in extreme environments such as the Afar, especially in the context of current climate-induced food insecurity in East Africa and dire predictions for what is ahead.
Matan Ben-Asher, Florence Magnin, Sebastian Westermann, Josué Bock, Emmanuel Malet, Johan Berthet, Ludovic Ravanel, and Philip Deline
Earth Surf. Dynam., 11, 899–915, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-11-899-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-11-899-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Quantitative knowledge of water availability on high mountain rock slopes is very limited. We use a numerical model and field measurements to estimate the water balance at a steep rock wall site. We show that snowmelt is the main source of water at elevations >3600 m and that snowpack hydrology and sublimation are key factors. The new information presented here can be used to improve the understanding of thermal, hydrogeological, and mechanical processes on steep mountain rock slopes.
Suvrat Kaushik, Ludovic Ravanel, Florence Magnin, Yajing Yan, Emmanuel Trouve, and Diego Cusicanqui
The Cryosphere, 16, 4251–4271, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4251-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4251-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Climate change impacts all parts of the cryosphere but most importantly the smaller ice bodies like ice aprons (IAs). This study is the first attempt on a regional scale to assess the impacts of the changing climate on these small but very important ice bodies. Our study shows that IAs have consistently lost mass over the past decades. The effects of climate variables, particularly temperature and precipitation and topographic factors, were analysed on the loss of IA area.
S. Kaushik, S. Leinss, L. Ravanel, E. Trouvé, Y. Yan, and F. Magnin
ISPRS Ann. Photogramm. Remote Sens. Spatial Inf. Sci., V-3-2022, 325–332, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-annals-V-3-2022-325-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-annals-V-3-2022-325-2022, 2022
Bernd Etzelmüller, Justyna Czekirda, Florence Magnin, Pierre-Allain Duvillard, Ludovic Ravanel, Emanuelle Malet, Andreas Aspaas, Lene Kristensen, Ingrid Skrede, Gudrun D. Majala, Benjamin Jacobs, Johannes Leinauer, Christian Hauck, Christin Hilbich, Martina Böhme, Reginald Hermanns, Harald Ø. Eriksen, Tom Rune Lauknes, Michael Krautblatter, and Sebastian Westermann
Earth Surf. Dynam., 10, 97–129, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-10-97-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-10-97-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This paper is a multi-authored study documenting the possible existence of permafrost in permanently monitored rockslides in Norway for the first time by combining a multitude of field data, including geophysical surveys in rock walls. The paper discusses the possible role of thermal regime and rockslide movement, and it evaluates the possible impact of atmospheric warming on rockslide dynamics in Norwegian mountains.
Marco Marcer, Charlie Serrano, Alexander Brenning, Xavier Bodin, Jason Goetz, and Philippe Schoeneich
The Cryosphere, 13, 141–155, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-141-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-141-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
This study aims to assess the occurrence of rock glacier destabilization in the French Alps, a process that causes a landslide-like behaviour of permafrost debris slopes. A significant number of the landforms in the region were found to be experiencing destabilization. Multivariate analysis suggested a link between destabilization occurrence and permafrost thaw induced by climate warming. These results call for a regional characterization of permafrost hazards in the context of climate change.
Florence Magnin, Jean-Yves Josnin, Ludovic Ravanel, Julien Pergaud, Benjamin Pohl, and Philip Deline
The Cryosphere, 11, 1813–1834, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-1813-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-1813-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Permafrost degradation in high mountain rock walls provokes destabilisation, constituting a threat for human activities. In the Mont Blanc massif, more than 700 rockfalls have been inventoried in recent years (2003, 2007–2015). Understanding permafrost evolution is thus crucial to sustain this densely populated area. This study investigates the changes in rock wall permafrost from 1850 to the recent period and possible optimistic or pessimistic evolutions during the 21st century.
Related subject area
Other Hazards (e.g., Glacial and Snow Hazards, Karst, Wildfires Hazards, and Medical Geo-Hazards)
A regional early warning for slushflow hazard
A new approach for drought index adjustment to clay-shrinkage-induced subsidence over France: advantages of the interactive leaf area index
Automated Avalanche Terrain Exposure Scale (ATES) mapping – local validation and optimization in western Canada
Improving the fire weather index system for peatlands using peat-specific hydrological input data
Brief communication: The Lahaina Fire disaster – how models can be used to understand and predict wildfires
Prediction of natural dry-snow avalanche activity using physics-based snowpack simulations
Modelling the vulnerability of urban settings to WUI fires in Chile
AutoATES v2.0: Automated avalanche terrain exposure scale mapping
Early warning system for ice collapses and river blockages in the Sedongpu Valley, southeastern Tibetan Plateau
Fire risk modeling: an integrated and data-driven approach applied to Sicily
Indoor 222Rn Modeling in Data-Scarce Regions: An Interactive Dashboard Approach for Bogotá, Colombia
Avalanche size estimation and avalanche outline determination by experts: reliability and implications for practice
Fluid conduits and shallow-reservoir structure defined by geoelectrical tomography at the Nirano Salse (Italy)
Estimating the effects of meteorology and land cover on fire growth in Peru using a novel difference equation model
Review article: Snow and ice avalanches in high mountain Asia – scientific, local and indigenous knowledge
Reduced-order digital twin and latent data assimilation for global wildfire prediction
A user perspective on the avalanche danger scale – insights from North America
Characterizing the rate of spread of large wildfires in emerging fire environments of northwestern Europe using Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite active fire data
Evaluation of low-cost Raspberry Pi sensors for structure-from-motion reconstructions of glacier calving fronts
Temporal evolution of crack propagation characteristics in a weak snowpack layer: conditions of crack arrest and sustained propagation
A data-driven model for Fennoscandian wildfire danger
Equivalent hazard magnitude scale
Statistical modelling of air quality impacts from individual forest fires in New South Wales, Australia
Drivers of extreme burnt area in Portugal: fire weather and vegetation
Coupling wildfire spread simulations and connectivity analysis for hazard assessment: a case study in Serra da Cabreira, Portugal
Glacial lake outburst flood hazard under current and future conditions: worst-case scenarios in a transboundary Himalayan basin
What weather variables are important for wet and slab avalanches under a changing climate in a low-altitude mountain range in Czechia?
Modelling ignition probability for human- and lightning-caused wildfires in Victoria, Australia
Automated snow avalanche release area delineation in data-sparse, remote, and forested regions
The 2017 Split wildfire in Croatia: evolution and the role of meteorological conditions
Progress and challenges in glacial lake outburst flood research (2017–2021): a research community perspective
Global assessment and mapping of ecological vulnerability to wildfires
The impact of terrain model source and resolution on snow avalanche modeling
Travel and terrain advice statements in public avalanche bulletins: a quantitative analysis of who uses this information, what makes it useful, and how it can be improved for users
Data-driven automated predictions of the avalanche danger level for dry-snow conditions in Switzerland
On the correlation between a sub-level qualifier refining the danger level with observations and models relating to the contributing factors of avalanche danger
Automated avalanche hazard indication mapping on a statewide scale
Forecasting the regional fire radiative power for regularly ignited vegetation fires
Environmental factors affecting wildfire-burned areas in southeastern France, 1970–2019
Detrainment and braking of snow avalanches interacting with forests
Past and future trends in fire weather for the UK
Methodological and conceptual challenges in rare and severe event forecast verification
Wildfire–atmosphere interaction index for extreme-fire behaviour
How is avalanche danger described in textual descriptions in avalanche forecasts in Switzerland? Consistency between forecasters and avalanche danger
Data-based wildfire risk model for Mediterranean ecosystems – case study of the Concepción metropolitan area in central Chile
The mud volcanoes at Santa Barbara and Aragona (Sicily, Italy): a contribution to risk assessment
Impact of information presentation on interpretability of spatial hazard information: lessons from a study in avalanche safety
ABWiSE v1.0: toward an agent-based approach to simulating wildfire spread
Multi-decadal geomorphic changes of a low-angle valley glacier in the East Kunlun Mountains: remote sensing observations and detachment hazard assessment
Spatial and temporal subsidence characteristics in Wuhan (China), during 2015–2019, inferred from Sentinel-1 synthetic aperture radar (SAR) interferometry
Monica Sund, Heidi A. Grønsten, and Siv Å. Seljesæter
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1185–1201, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1185-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1185-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Slushflows are rapid mass movements of water-saturated snow released in gently sloping terrain (< 30°), often unexpectedly. Early warning is crucial to prevent casualties and damage to infrastructure. A regional early warning for slushflow hazard was established in Norway in 2013–2014 and has been operational since. We present a methodology using the ratio between water supply and snow depth by snow type to assess slushflow hazard. This approach is useful for other areas with slushflow hazard.
Sophie Barthelemy, Bertrand Bonan, Jean-Christophe Calvet, Gilles Grandjean, David Moncoulon, Dorothée Kapsambelis, and Séverine Bernardie
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 999–1016, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-999-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-999-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This work presents a drought index specifically adapted to subsidence, a seasonal phenomenon of soil shrinkage that occurs frequently in France and damages buildings. The index is computed from land surface model simulations and evaluated by a rank correlation test with insurance data. With its optimal configuration, the index is able to identify years of both zero and significant loss.
John Sykes, Håvard Toft, Pascal Haegeli, and Grant Statham
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 947–971, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-947-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-947-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The research validates and optimizes an automated approach for creating classified snow avalanche terrain maps using open-source geospatial modeling tools. Validation is based on avalanche-expert-based maps for two study areas. Our results show that automated maps have an overall accuracy equivalent to the average accuracy of three human maps. Automated mapping requires a fraction of the time and cost of traditional methods and opens the door for large-scale mapping of mountainous terrain.
Jonas Mortelmans, Anne Felsberg, Gabriëlle J. M. De Lannoy, Sander Veraverbeke, Robert D. Field, Niels Andela, and Michel Bechtold
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 445–464, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-445-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-445-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
With global warming increasing the frequency and intensity of wildfires in the boreal region, accurate risk assessments are becoming more crucial than ever before. The Canadian Fire Weather Index (FWI) is a renowned system, yet its effectiveness in peatlands, where hydrology plays a key role, is limited. By incorporating groundwater data from numerical models and satellite observations, our modified FWI improves the accuracy of fire danger predictions, especially over summer.
Timothy W. Juliano, Fernando Szasdi-Bardales, Neil P. Lareau, Kasra Shamsaei, Branko Kosović, Negar Elhami-Khorasani, Eric P. James, and Hamed Ebrahimian
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 47–52, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-47-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-47-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Following the destructive Lahaina Fire in Hawaii, our team has modeled the wind and fire spread processes to understand the drivers of this devastating event. The simulation results show that extreme winds with high variability, a fire ignition close to the community, and construction characteristics led to continued fire spread in multiple directions. Our results suggest that available modeling capabilities can provide vital information to guide decision-making during wildfire events.
Stephanie Mayer, Frank Techel, Jürg Schweizer, and Alec van Herwijnen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3445–3465, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3445-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3445-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We present statistical models to estimate the probability for natural dry-snow avalanche release and avalanche size based on the simulated layering of the snowpack. The benefit of these models is demonstrated in comparison with benchmark models based on the amount of new snow. From the validation with data sets of quality-controlled avalanche observations and danger levels, we conclude that these models may be valuable tools to support forecasting natural dry-snow avalanche activity.
Paula Aguirre, Jorge León, Constanza González-Mathiesen, Randy Román, Manuela Penas, and Alonso Ogueda
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2130, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2130, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Wildfires pose a significant risk to property located in the Wildland-Urban Interface, WUI. To assess and mitigate this risk, we need to understand which characteristics of buildings and of building arrangements make them more prone to damage. We used a combination of data collection and analysis methods to study the vulnerability of dwellings in the WUI for seven case studies in Chile and concluded that the spatial arrangement of houses has substantial impact on their vulnerability to wildfires
Håvard Boutera Toft, John Sykes, Andrew Schauer, Jordy Hendrikx, and Audun Hetland
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-114, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-114, 2023
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
Manual avalanche terrain exposure scale (ATES) mapping is time-consuming and inefficient for large-scale applications. The updated algorithm for automated ATES mapping overcomes previous limitations by including forest density data, improving the avalanche runout estimations in low-angle runout zones, accounting for overhead exposure and open-source software. Results show that the latest version has significantly improved its performance.
Wei Yang, Zhongyan Wang, Baosheng An, Yingying Chen, Chuanxi Zhao, Chenhui Li, Yongjie Wang, Weicai Wang, Jiule Li, Guangjian Wu, Lin Bai, Fan Zhang, and Tandong Yao
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3015–3029, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3015-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3015-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We present the structure and performance of the early warning system (EWS) for glacier collapse and river blockages in the southeastern Tibetan Plateau. The EWS warned of three collapse–river blockage chain events and seven small-scale events. The volume and location of the collapses and the percentage of ice content influenced the velocities of debris flows. Such a study is helpful for understanding the mechanism of glacier hazards and for establishing similar EWSs in other high-risk regions.
Alba Marquez Torres, Giovanni Signorello, Sudeshna Kumar, Greta Adamo, Ferdinando Villa, and Stefano Balbi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2937–2959, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2937-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2937-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Only by mapping fire risks can we manage forest and prevent fires under current and future climate conditions. We present a fire risk map based on k.LAB, artificial-intelligence-powered and open-source software integrating multidisciplinary knowledge in near real time. Through an easy-to-use web application, we model the hazard with 84 % accuracy for Sicily, a representative Mediterranean region. Fire risk analysis reveals 45 % of vulnerable areas face a high probability of danger in 2050.
Martín Domínguez Durán, María Angélica Sandoval Garzón, and Carme Huguet
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1480, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1480, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
In this study we created a cost-effective alternative to bridge the baseline information gap of Indoor radon (A highly carcinogenic gas) in regions where measurements are scarce. We model indoor radon concentrations to understand its spatial distribution and the potential influential factors. We evaluated the performance of this alternative using a small number of measurements taken in Bogotá, Colombia. Our results show that this alternative could help in the making of future studies and policy.
Elisabeth D. Hafner, Frank Techel, Rodrigo Caye Daudt, Jan Dirk Wegner, Konrad Schindler, and Yves Bühler
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2895–2914, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2895-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2895-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Oftentimes when objective measurements are not possible, human estimates are used instead. In our study, we investigate the reproducibility of human judgement for size estimates, the mappings of avalanches from oblique photographs and remotely sensed imagery. The variability that we found in those estimates is worth considering as it may influence results and should be kept in mind for several applications.
Gerardo Romano, Marco Antonellini, Domenico Patella, Agata Siniscalchi, Andrea Tallarico, Simona Tripaldi, and Antonello Piombo
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2719–2735, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2719-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2719-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The Nirano Salse (northern Apennines, Italy) is characterized by several active mud vents and hosts thousands of visitors every year. New resistivity models describe the area down to 250 m, improving our geostructural knowledge of the area and giving useful indications for a better understanding of mud volcano dynamics and for the better planning of safer tourist access to the area.
Harry Podschwit, William Jolly, Ernesto Alvarado, Andrea Markos, Satyam Verma, Sebastian Barreto-Rivera, Catherine Tobón-Cruz, and Blanca Ponce-Vigo
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2607–2624, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2607-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2607-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We developed a model of fire spread that assumes that fire spreads in all directions at a constant speed and is extinguished at a constant rate. The model was fitted to 1003 fires in Peru between 2001 and 2020 using satellite burned area data from the GlobFire project. We fitted statistical models that predicted the spread and extinguish rates based on weather and land cover variables and found that these variables were good predictors of the spread and extinguish rates.
Anushilan Acharya, Jakob F. Steiner, Khwaja Momin Walizada, Salar Ali, Zakir Hussain Zakir, Arnaud Caiserman, and Teiji Watanabe
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2569–2592, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2569-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2569-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
All accessible snow and ice avalanches together with previous scientific research, local knowledge, and existing or previously active adaptation and mitigation solutions were investigated in the high mountain Asia (HMA) region to have a detailed overview of the state of knowledge and identify gaps. A comprehensive avalanche database from 1972–2022 is generated, including 681 individual events. The database provides a basis for the forecasting of avalanche hazards in different parts of HMA.
Caili Zhong, Sibo Cheng, Matthew Kasoar, and Rossella Arcucci
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1755–1768, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1755-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1755-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This paper introduces a digital twin fire model using machine learning techniques to improve the efficiency of global wildfire predictions. The proposed model also manages to efficiently adjust the prediction results thanks to data assimilation techniques. The proposed digital twin runs 500 times faster than the current state-of-the-art physics-based model.
Abby Morgan, Pascal Haegeli, Henry Finn, and Patrick Mair
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1719–1742, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1719-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1719-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The avalanche danger scale is a critical component for communicating the severity of avalanche hazard conditions to the public. We examine how backcountry recreationists in North America understand and use the danger scale for planning trips into the backcountry. Our results provide an important user perspective on the strengths and weaknesses of the existing scale and highlight opportunities for future improvements.
Adrián Cardíl, Victor M. Tapia, Santiago Monedero, Tomás Quiñones, Kerryn Little, Cathelijne R. Stoof, Joaquín Ramirez, and Sergio de-Miguel
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 361–373, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-361-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-361-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This study aims to unravel large-fire behavior in northwest Europe, a temperate region with a projected increase in wildfire risk. We propose a new method to identify wildfire rate of spread from satellites because it is important to know periods of elevated fire risk for suppression methods and land management. Results indicate that there is a peak in the area burned and rate of spread in the months of March and April, and there are significant differences for forest-type land covers.
Liam S. Taylor, Duncan J. Quincey, and Mark W. Smith
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 329–341, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-329-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-329-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Hazards from glaciers are becoming more likely as the climate warms, which poses a threat to communities living beneath them. We have developed a new camera system which can capture regular, high-quality 3D models to monitor small changes in glaciers which could be indicative of a future hazard. This system is far cheaper than more typical camera sensors yet produces very similar quality data. We suggest that deploying these cameras near glaciers could assist in warning communities of hazards.
Bastian Bergfeld, Alec van Herwijnen, Grégoire Bobillier, Philipp L. Rosendahl, Philipp Weißgraeber, Valentin Adam, Jürg Dual, and Jürg Schweizer
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 293–315, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-293-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-293-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
For a slab avalanche to release, the snowpack must facilitate crack propagation over large distances. Field measurements on crack propagation at this scale are very scarce. We performed a series of experiments, up to 10 m long, over a period of 10 weeks. Beside the temporal evolution of the mechanical properties of the snowpack, we found that crack speeds were highest for tests resulting in full propagation. Based on these findings, an index for self-sustained crack propagation is proposed.
Sigrid Jørgensen Bakke, Niko Wanders, Karin van der Wiel, and Lena Merete Tallaksen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 65–89, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-65-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-65-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, we developed a machine learning model to identify dominant controls of wildfire in Fennoscandia and produce monthly fire danger probability maps. The dominant control was shallow-soil water anomaly, followed by air temperature and deep soil water. The model proved skilful with a similar performance as the existing Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index (FWI). We highlight the benefit of using data-driven models jointly with other fire models to improve fire monitoring and prediction.
Yi Victor Wang and Antonia Sebastian
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 4103–4118, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-4103-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-4103-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
In this article, we propose an equivalent hazard magnitude scale and a method to evaluate and compare the strengths of natural hazard events across different hazard types, including earthquakes, tsunamis, floods, droughts, forest fires, tornadoes, cold waves, heat waves, and tropical cyclones. With our method, we determine that both the February 2021 North American cold wave event and Hurricane Harvey in 2017 were equivalent to a magnitude 7.5 earthquake in hazard strength.
Michael A. Storey and Owen F. Price
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 4039–4062, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-4039-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-4039-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Models are needed to understand and predict pollutant output from forest fires so fire agencies can reduce smoke-related risks to human health. We modelled air quality (PM2.5) based on fire area and weather variables. We found fire area and boundary layer height were influential on predictions, with distance, temperature, wind speed and relative humidity also important. The models predicted reasonably accurately in comparison to other existing methods but would benefit from further development.
Tomás Calheiros, Akli Benali, Mário Pereira, João Silva, and João Nunes
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 4019–4037, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-4019-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-4019-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Fire weather indices are used to assess the effect of weather on wildfires. Fire weather risk was computed and combined with large wildfires in Portugal. Results revealed the influence of vegetation cover: municipalities with a prevalence of shrublands, located in eastern parts, burnt under less extreme conditions than those with higher forested areas, situated in coastal regions. These findings are a novelty for fire science in Portugal and should be considered for fire management.
Ana C. L. Sá, Bruno Aparicio, Akli Benali, Chiara Bruni, Michele Salis, Fábio Silva, Martinho Marta-Almeida, Susana Pereira, Alfredo Rocha, and José Pereira
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3917–3938, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3917-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3917-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Assessing landscape wildfire connectivity supported by wildfire spread simulations can improve fire hazard assessment and fuel management plans. Weather severity determines the degree of fuel patch connectivity and thus the potential to spread large and intense wildfires. Mapping highly connected patches in the landscape highlights patch candidates for prior fuel treatments, which ultimately will contribute to creating fire-resilient Mediterranean landscapes.
Simon K. Allen, Ashim Sattar, Owen King, Guoqing Zhang, Atanu Bhattacharya, Tandong Yao, and Tobias Bolch
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3765–3785, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3765-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3765-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This study demonstrates how the threat of a very large outburst from a future lake can be feasibly assessed alongside that from current lakes to inform disaster risk management within a transboundary basin between Tibet and Nepal. Results show that engineering measures and early warning systems would need to be coupled with effective land use zoning and programmes to strengthen local response capacities in order to effectively reduce the risk associated with current and future outburst events.
Markéta Součková, Roman Juras, Kryštof Dytrt, Vojtěch Moravec, Johanna Ruth Blöcher, and Martin Hanel
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3501–3525, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3501-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3501-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Avalanches are natural hazards that threaten people and infrastructure. With climate change, avalanche activity is changing. We analysed the change in frequency and size of avalanches in the Krkonoše Mountains, Czechia, and detected important variables with machine learning tools from 1979–2020. Wet avalanches in February and March have increased, and slab avalanches have decreased and become smaller. The identified variables and their threshold levels may help in avalanche decision-making.
Annalie Dorph, Erica Marshall, Kate A. Parkins, and Trent D. Penman
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3487–3499, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3487-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3487-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Wildfire spatial patterns are determined by fire ignition sources and vegetation fuel moisture. Fire ignitions can be mediated by humans (owing to proximity to human infrastructure) or caused by lightning (owing to fuel moisture, average annual rainfall and local weather). When moisture in dead vegetation is below 20 % the probability of a wildfire increases. The results of this research enable accurate spatial mapping of ignition probability to aid fire suppression efforts and future research.
John Sykes, Pascal Haegeli, and Yves Bühler
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3247–3270, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3247-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3247-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Automated snow avalanche terrain mapping provides an efficient method for large-scale assessment of avalanche hazards, which informs risk management decisions for transportation and recreation. This research reduces the cost of developing avalanche terrain maps by using satellite imagery and open-source software as well as improving performance in forested terrain. The research relies on local expertise to evaluate accuracy, so the methods are broadly applicable in mountainous regions worldwide.
Ivana Čavlina Tomašević, Kevin K. W. Cheung, Višnjica Vučetić, Paul Fox-Hughes, Kristian Horvath, Maja Telišman Prtenjak, Paul J. Beggs, Barbara Malečić, and Velimir Milić
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3143–3165, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3143-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3143-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
One of the most severe and impactful urban wildfire events in Croatian history has been reconstructed and analyzed. The study identified some important meteorological influences related to the event: the synoptic conditions of the Azores anticyclone, cold front, and upper-level shortwave trough all led to the highest fire weather index in 2017. A low-level jet, locally known as bura wind that can be explained by hydraulic jump theory, was the dynamic trigger of the event.
Adam Emmer, Simon K. Allen, Mark Carey, Holger Frey, Christian Huggel, Oliver Korup, Martin Mergili, Ashim Sattar, Georg Veh, Thomas Y. Chen, Simon J. Cook, Mariana Correas-Gonzalez, Soumik Das, Alejandro Diaz Moreno, Fabian Drenkhan, Melanie Fischer, Walter W. Immerzeel, Eñaut Izagirre, Ramesh Chandra Joshi, Ioannis Kougkoulos, Riamsara Kuyakanon Knapp, Dongfeng Li, Ulfat Majeed, Stephanie Matti, Holly Moulton, Faezeh Nick, Valentine Piroton, Irfan Rashid, Masoom Reza, Anderson Ribeiro de Figueiredo, Christian Riveros, Finu Shrestha, Milan Shrestha, Jakob Steiner, Noah Walker-Crawford, Joanne L. Wood, and Jacob C. Yde
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3041–3061, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3041-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3041-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) have attracted increased research attention recently. In this work, we review GLOF research papers published between 2017 and 2021 and complement the analysis with research community insights gained from the 2021 GLOF conference we organized. The transdisciplinary character of the conference together with broad geographical coverage allowed us to identify progress, trends and challenges in GLOF research and outline future research needs and directions.
Fátima Arrogante-Funes, Inmaculada Aguado, and Emilio Chuvieco
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2981–3003, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2981-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2981-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We show that ecological value might be reduced by 50 % due to fire perturbation in ecosystems that have not developed in the presence of fire and/or that present changes in the fire regime. The biomes most affected are tropical and subtropical forests, tundra, and mangroves. Integration of biotic and abiotic fire regime and regeneration factors resulted in a powerful way to map ecological vulnerability to fire and develop assessments to generate adaptation plans of management in forest masses.
Aubrey Miller, Pascal Sirguey, Simon Morris, Perry Bartelt, Nicolas Cullen, Todd Redpath, Kevin Thompson, and Yves Bühler
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2673–2701, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2673-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2673-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Natural hazard modelers simulate mass movements to better anticipate the risk to people and infrastructure. These simulations require accurate digital elevation models. We test the sensitivity of a well-established snow avalanche model (RAMMS) to the source and spatial resolution of the elevation model. We find key differences in the digital representation of terrain greatly affect the simulated avalanche results, with implications for hazard planning.
Kathryn C. Fisher, Pascal Haegeli, and Patrick Mair
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1973–2000, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1973-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1973-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Avalanche bulletins include travel and terrain statements to provide recreationists with tangible guidance about how to apply the hazard information. We examined which bulletin users pay attention to these statements, what determines their usefulness, and how they could be improved. Our study shows that reducing jargon and adding simple explanations can significantly improve the usefulness of the statements for users with lower levels of avalanche awareness education who depend on this advice.
Cristina Pérez-Guillén, Frank Techel, Martin Hendrick, Michele Volpi, Alec van Herwijnen, Tasko Olevski, Guillaume Obozinski, Fernando Pérez-Cruz, and Jürg Schweizer
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2031–2056, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2031-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2031-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
A fully data-driven approach to predicting the danger level for dry-snow avalanche conditions in Switzerland was developed. Two classifiers were trained using a large database of meteorological data, snow cover simulations, and danger levels. The models performed well throughout the Swiss Alps, reaching a performance similar to the current experience-based avalanche forecasts. This approach shows the potential to be a valuable supplementary decision support tool for assessing avalanche hazard.
Frank Techel, Stephanie Mayer, Cristina Pérez-Guillén, Günter Schmudlach, and Kurt Winkler
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1911–1930, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1911-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1911-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Can the resolution of forecasts of avalanche danger be increased by using a combination of absolute and comparative judgments? Using 5 years of Swiss avalanche forecasts, we show that, on average, sub-levels assigned to a danger level reflect the expected increase in the number of locations with poor snow stability and in the number and size of avalanches with increasing forecast sub-level.
Yves Bühler, Peter Bebi, Marc Christen, Stefan Margreth, Lukas Stoffel, Andreas Stoffel, Christoph Marty, Gregor Schmucki, Andrin Caviezel, Roderick Kühne, Stephan Wohlwend, and Perry Bartelt
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1825–1843, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1825-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1825-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
To calculate and visualize the potential avalanche hazard, we develop a method that automatically and efficiently pinpoints avalanche starting zones and simulate their runout for the entire canton of Grisons. The maps produced in this way highlight areas that could be endangered by avalanches and are extremely useful in multiple applications for the cantonal authorities, including the planning of new infrastructure, making alpine regions more safe.
Tero M. Partanen and Mikhail Sofiev
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1335–1346, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1335-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1335-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The presented method aims to forecast regional wildfire-emitted radiative power in a time-dependent manner several days in advance. The temporal fire radiative power can be converted to an emission production rate, which can be implemented in air quality forecasting simulations. It is shown that in areas with a high incidence of wildfires, the fire radiative power is quite predictable, but otherwise it is not.
Christos Bountzouklis, Dennis M. Fox, and Elena Di Bernardino
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1181–1200, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1181-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1181-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The study addresses the evolution of burned areas in southeastern France from 1970 to 2019 through the scope of a firefighting policy shift in 1994 that resulted in a significant decrease in the burned area. Regions with large fires were particularly impacted, whereas, in other areas, the fires remained frequent and occurred closer to built-up zones. Environmental characteristics such as south-facing slopes and low vegetation (bushes) are increasingly associated with burned areas.
Louis Védrine, Xingyue Li, and Johan Gaume
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1015–1028, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1015-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1015-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This study investigates how forests affect the behaviour of snow avalanches through the evaluation of the amount of snow stopped by the trees and the analysis of energy dissipation mechanisms. Different avalanche features and tree configurations have been examined, leading to the proposal of a unified law for the detrained snow mass. Outcomes from this study can be directly implemented in operational models for avalanche risk assessment and contribute to improved forest management strategy.
Matthew C. Perry, Emilie Vanvyve, Richard A. Betts, and Erika J. Palin
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 559–575, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-559-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-559-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
In the past, wildfires in the UK have occurred mainly in spring, with occasional events during hot, dry summers. Climate models predict a large future increase in hazardous fire weather conditions in summer. Wildfire can be considered an
emergent riskfor the UK, as past events have not had widespread major impacts, but this could change. The large increase in risk between the 2 °C and 4 °C levels of global warming highlights the importance of global efforts to keep warming below 2 °C.
Philip A. Ebert and Peter Milne
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 539–557, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-539-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-539-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
There is no consensus about how to assess the quality of binary (yes or no) rare and severe event forecasts, i.e. forecasts involving natural hazards like tornadoes or avalanches. We offer a comprehensive overview of the challenges we face when making such an assessment and provide a critical review of existing solutions. We argue against all but one existing solution to assess the quality of such forecasts and present practical consequences to improve forecasting services.
Tomàs Artés, Marc Castellnou, Tracy Houston Durrant, and Jesús San-Miguel
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 509–522, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-509-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-509-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
During the last 20 years extreme wildfires have challenged firefighting capabilities. Several fire danger indices are routinely used by firefighting services but are not suited to forecast convective extreme wildfire behaviour at the global scale. This article proposes a new fire danger index for deep moist convection, the extreme-fire behaviour index (EFBI), based on the analysis of the vertical profiles of the atmosphere above wildfires to use along with traditional fire danger indices.
Veronika Hutter, Frank Techel, and Ross S. Purves
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3879–3897, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3879-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3879-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
How is avalanche danger described in public avalanche forecasts? We analyzed 6000 textual descriptions of avalanche danger in Switzerland, taking the perspective of the forecaster. Avalanche danger was described rather consistently, although the results highlight the difficulty of communicating conditions that are neither rare nor frequent, neither small nor large. The study may help to refine the ways in which avalanche danger could be communicated to the public.
Edilia Jaque Castillo, Alfonso Fernández, Rodrigo Fuentes Robles, and Carolina G. Ojeda
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3663–3678, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3663-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3663-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Wildfires pose risks to lives and livelihoods in many regions of the world. Particularly in Chile's central-south region, climate change, widespread land use change, and urban growth tend to increase the likelihood of fire occurrence. Our work focused on the Concepción metropolitan area, where we developed a model using machine learning in order to map wildfire risks. We found that the interface between urban areas and forestry plantations presents the highest risks.
Alessandro Gattuso, Francesco Italiano, Giorgio Capasso, Antonino D'Alessandro, Fausto Grassa, Antonino Fabio Pisciotta, and Davide Romano
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3407–3419, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3407-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3407-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Santa Barbara and Aragona are affected by mud volcanism with episodic hazardous paroxysm events. Two potentially hazardous paroxysm exposed surfaces of 0.12 and 0.20 km2 were elaborated with DSMs and with historical information on the paroxysms that occurred in the past. This paper, in the end, could be a useful tool for civil protection authorities in order to take appropriate risk mitigation measurements for exposed people and for monitoring activities.
Kathryn C. Fisher, Pascal Haegeli, and Patrick Mair
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3219–3242, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3219-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3219-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Avalanche warning services publish condition reports to help backcountry recreationists make informed decisions about when and where to travel in avalanche terrain. We tested how different graphic representations of terrain information can affect users’ ability to interpret and apply the provided information. Our study shows that a combined presentation of aspect and elevation information is the most effective. These results can be used to improve avalanche risk communication products.
Jeffrey Katan and Liliana Perez
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3141–3160, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3141-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3141-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Wildfires are an integral part of ecosystems worldwide, but they also pose a serious risk to human life and property. To further our understanding of wildfires and allow experimentation without recourse to live fires, this study presents an agent-based modelling approach to combine the complexity possible with physical models with the ease of computation of empirical models. Model calibration and validation show bottom-up simulation tracks the core elements of complexity of fire across scales.
Xiaowen Wang, Lin Liu, Yan Hu, Tonghua Wu, Lin Zhao, Qiao Liu, Rui Zhang, Bo Zhang, and Guoxiang Liu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2791–2810, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2791-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2791-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We characterized the multi-decadal geomorphic changes of a low-angle valley glacier in the East Kunlun Mountains and assessed the detachment hazard influence. The observations reveal a slow surge-like dynamic pattern of the glacier tongue. The maximum runout distances of two endmember avalanche scenarios were presented. This study provides a reference to evaluate the runout hazards of low-angle mountain glaciers prone to detachment.
Xuguo Shi, Shaocheng Zhang, Mi Jiang, Yuanyuan Pei, Tengteng Qu, Jinhu Xu, and Chen Yang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2285–2297, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2285-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2285-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We mapped the subsidence of Wuhan using Sentinel-1 synthetic aperture radar (SAR) images acquired during 2015–2019. Overall subsidence coincides with the distribution of engineered geological regions with soft soils, while the subsidence centers shifted with urban construction activities. Correlation between karst subsidence and concentrated rainfall was identified in Qingling–Jiangdi. Results indicate that interferometric SAR can be employed to routinely monitor and identify geohazards.
Cited articles
Alpes Ingé: Couloir du Goûter, Suivi et analyse des chutes de blocs
et de la fréquentation pendant l'été 2011, Rapport final,
Fondation Petzl, 37 pp., 2012.
Collins, B. and Stock, G.: Rockfall triggering by cyclic thermal stressing of exfoliation fractures, Nat. Geosci., 9, 345–500, https://doi.org/10.1038/NGEO2686, 2016.
Dammeier, F., Moore, J., Haslinger, F., and Loew, S.: Characterization of alpine rockslides using statistical analysis of seismic signals, J. Geophys. Res., 116, F04024, https://doi.org/10.1029/2011JF002037, 2011.
Debarbieux, B.: L'Unesco au mont Blanc, Chamonix, Guérin, France, https://archive-ouverte.unige.ch/unige:130712 (last access: 14 February 2022), 2020.
DeRoin, N. and Mc Nutt, S.: Rockfalls at Augustino Volcano, Alaska: The
influence of eruption precursors and seasonal factors on occurrence patterns 1997–2009, J. Volcanol. Geoth. Res., 211–212, 61–75,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jvolgeores.2011.11.003, 2012.
Dietze, M., Mohadjer, S., Turowski, J., Ehlers, T., and Hovius, N.: Seismic
monitoring of small alpine rockfalls – validity, precision and limitations,
Earth Surf. Dynam., 5, 653–668, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-5-653-2017, 2017a.
Dietze, M., Turowski, J., Cook, K., and Hovius, N.: Spatiotemporal patterns,
triggers and anatomies of seismically detected rockfalls, Earth Surf. Dynam., 5, 757–779, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-5-757-2017, 2017b.
Draebing, D., Krautblatter, M., and Dikau, R.: Interaction of thermal and
mechanical processes in steep permafrost rock walls: a conceptual approach,
Geomorphology, 226, 226–235, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geomorph.2014.08.009, 2014
Draebing, D., Krautblatter, M., and Hoffmann, T.: Thermo-cryogenic controls
of fracture kinematics in permafrost rockwalls, Geophys. Res. Lett., 44, 3535–3544, https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GL072050, 2017.
Durand, V., Mangeney, A., Haas, F., Jia, X., Bonilla, F., Peltier, A., Hibert, C., Ferrazzini, V., Kowalski, P., Lauret, F., Brunet, C., Satriano,
C., Wegner, K., Delorme, A., and Villeneuve, N.: On the link between external
forcings and slope instabilities in the Piton de la Fournaise summit crater,
Reunion island, J. Geophys. Res.-Earth, 123, 2422–2442, https://doi.org/10.1029/2017JF004507, 2018.
Dussauge, C., Grasso, J.-R., and Helmstetter, A.: Statistical analysis of
rockfall volume distributions: implications for rockfall dynamics, J. Geophys. Res., 108, 2286, https://doi.org/10.1029/2001JB000650, 2003.
Fedorov, V., Arias, P., Facciolo, G., and Ballester, C.: Affine Invariant
Self-similarity for exemplar-based Inpainting, in: 11th joint Conference on
Computer Vision, Imag. Comput. Graph. Theory Appl., 3, 50–60, https://doi.org/10.5220/0005728100480058, 2016.
Flöry, S., Ressl, C., Hollaus, M., Pürcher, G., Piermattei, L., and Pfeifer, N.: “WEBSNOW”: Estimation Of Snow Cover From Freely Accessible Webcam Images In The Alps, ISPRS Ann. Photogramm. Remote Sens. Spatial Inf. Sci., V-2-2020, 695–701, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-annals-V-2-2020-695-2020, 2020.
Gardent, M., Rabatel, A., Dedieu, J. P., and Deline, P.: Multitemporal glacier inventory of the French Alps from the late 1960s to the late 2000s, Global Planet. Change, 120, 24–37, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2014.05.004, 2014
Gruber, S. and Haeberli, W.: Permafrost in steep bedrock slopes and its
temperature-related destabilization following climate change, J. Geophys Res., 112, F02S18, https://doi.org/10.1029/2006JF000547, 2007.
Gruber, S., Hoelzle, M., and Haeberli, W.: Permafrost thaw and destabilization of Alpine rock walls in the hot summer 2003, Geophys. Res. Lett., 31, L13504,, https://doi.org/10.1029/2004GL020051, 2004.
Guillermot, A., Helmstetter, A., Larose, E., Baillet., L., Garambois, S.,
Mayoraz, R., and Delaloye, R.: Seismic monitoring in the Gugla rock glacier
(Switzerland): ambiant noise correlation, microseismicity and modelling,
Geophys. J. Int., 221, 1719–1735, https://doi.org/10.1093/gji/ggaa097, 2020.
Hartley, R. and Zisserman, A.: Multiple view geometry in computer vision, Cambridge University Press, 48 pp., https://www.cambridge.org/ch/academic/subjects/computer-science/computer-graphics-image-processing-and-robotics/multiple-view-geometry-computer-vision-2nd-edition?format=PB&isbn=9780521540513
(last access: 14 February 2022), 2003.
Hartmeyer, I., Delleske, R., Keusching, M., Krautblatter, M., Lang, A.,
Schrott, L., and Otto, J.-C.: Current glacier recession causes significant
rockfall increase: the immediate paraglacial response of defglaciating cirque walls, Earth Surf. Dynam., 8, 729–751, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-8-729-2020, 2020.
Hasler, A., Gruber, S., Font, M., and Dubois, A.: Advective heat transport in
Frozen Rock Clefts: conceptual model, laboratory experiments and numerical
simulation, Permafrost Periglac. Process., 22, 378–389, https://doi.org/10.1002/ppp.737, 2011.
Helmstetter, A. and Garambois, S.: Seismic monitoring of Séchilienne
rockslide (French Alps): Analysis of seismic signals and their correlation
with rainfalls, J. Geophys. Res., 15, F03016, https://doi.org/10.1029/2009JF001532, 2010.
Hibert, C., Mangeney, A., Grandjean, G., and Shapiro, N. M.: Slope instabilities in Dolomieu crater, Réunion Island: from seismic signals to rockfall characteristics, J. Geophys. Res., 116, F04032, https://doi.org/10.1029/2011JF002038, 2011.
Hibert, C., Malet, J.-P., Bourrier, F., Provost, F., Berger, F., Bornemann, P., Tardif, P., and Mermin, E.: Single-block rockfall dynamics inferred from seismic signal analysis, Earth Surf. Dynam., 5, 283–292, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-5-283-2017, 2017.
Hibert, C., Michéa, D., Provost, F., Malet, J.-P., and Geertsema, M.:
Exploration of continuous seismic recordings with a machine learning approach to document 20 yr of landslide activity in Alaska, Geophys. J. Int., 219, 1138–1147, https://doi.org/10.1093/gji/ggz354, 2019.
Krautblatter, M., Funk, D., and Günzel, F. K.: Why permafrost rocks become unstable: a rock-ice-mechanical model in time and space, Earth Surf. Proc. Land., 38, 876–887, https://doi.org/10.1002/esp.3374, 2013.
Lacroix, P. and Helmstetter, A.: Location of Seismic Signals Associated with
Microearthquakes and Rockfalls on the Séchilienne Landslide, French Alps, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am., 101, 341–353, https://doi.org/10.1785/0120100110, 2011.
Legay, A., Magnin, F., and Ravanel L.: Rock temperature prior to failure:
analysis of 209 rockfall events in the Mont Blanc massif (Western European
Alps), Permafrost Periglac. Process., 32, 520–536, https://doi.org/10.1002/ppp.2110, 2021.
Lemarchal, D.: EURL Meije: Massif du Mont-Blanc, Traversée du Grand
Couloir, Etude de faisabilité et avant-projet de sécurisation, Fondation Petzl, 87 pp., 2011.
Le Roy, G., Helmstetter, A., Amitrano, D., Guyoton, F., and Le Roux-Mallouf, R.: Seismic analysis of the detachment and impact phases of rockfalland
application for estimating rockfall volume and free-fall height, J.
Geophys. Res.-Earth, 124, 2602–2622, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019JF004999, 2019.
Magnin, F., Brenning, A., Bodin, X., Deline, P., and Ravanel, L.: Statistical
modelling of rock wall permafrost distribution: application to the Mont Blanc massif, Geomorphologie, 21, 145–162, https://doi.org/10.4000/geomorphologie.10965, 2015.
Magnin, F., Josnin, J.-Y., Ravanel, L., Pergaud, J., Pohl, B., and Deline, P.: Modelling rock wall permafrost degradation in the Mont Blanc massif from the LIA to the end of the 21st century, The Cryosphere, 11, 1813–1834,
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-1813-2017, 2017a.
Manconi, A., Picozzi, M., Coviello, V., De Santis, F., and Elia, L.: Real time detection, location and characterization of rockslides using broadband
regional seismic networks, Geophys. Res. Lett., 43, 6960–6967,
https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GL069572, 2016.
Matsuoka, N.: Mechanisms of rock breakdown by frost action – an experimental approach, Cold Reg. Sci. Technol., 17, 253–270, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0165-232X(05)80005-9, 1990.
McColl, S. T. and Draebing, D.: Rock slope instability in the proglacial
zone: State of the Art, in: Geomorphology of proglacial systems – Landform and sediment dynamics in recently deglaciated alpine landscapes, edited by: Heckmann, T. and Morche, D., Springer, Heidelberg, 119–141, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-94184-4_8, 2019.
McDowell, G., Stephenson, E., and Ford, J.: Adaptation to climate change in
glaciated mountain regions, Climatic Change, 126, 77–91, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-014-1215-z, 2019.
Mennessier, G., Carme, F., Bellire, J., Dhellemes, R., Antoine, P., Dabrowski, H., and Meloux, J.: Notice explicative: Carte Géologique de la France à 1:50 000, Feuille ST-Gervais-les-Bains, http://ficheinfoterre.brgm.fr/Notices/0703N.pdf (last access: 14 February 2022), 1977.
Mourey, J. and Ravanel, L.: Measuring the attendance of access routes to
high mountain in the Mont-Blanc massif using pyroelectric sensors,
Collection EDYTEM SI Monitoring en milieux naturels, retours d'expériences en terrains difficiles, 263–270, https://doi.org/10.3406/edyte.2017.1394, 2017.
Mourey, J., Moret, O., Descamps, P., and Bozon, S.: Accidentology of the normal route up Mont Blanc between 1990 and 2017, Fondation Petzl, 20, https://www.petzl.com/fondation/projets/accidents-couloir-gouter?language=en
(last access: 13 July 2021), 2018.
Mourey, J., Marcuzzi, M., Ravanel, L., and Pallandre, F.: Effects of climate
change on high Alpine environments: evolution of mountaineering routes in the Mont Blanc massif (Western Alps) over half a century, Arct. Antarct. Res., 51, 176–189, https://doi.org/10.1080/15230430.2019.1612216, 2019.
Mourey, J., Lacroix, P., Duvillard, P.-A., Marsy, G., Marcer, M., Malet, E., and Ravanel, L.: Multi-method monitoring of rockfall activity along the classic route up Mont Blanc (4809 m a.s.l.) to encourage adaptation by mountaineers [data set], In Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, Zenodo [data set], https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.6074472, 2022.
NRCC (Permafrost Subcommittee): Glossary of permafrost and related ground-ice terms, Technical memorandum 142, National Research Council of Canada, 156 pp., https://globalcryospherewatch.org/reference/glossary_docs/permafrost_and_ground_terms_canada.pdf (last access: 14 February 2022), 1988.
Paul, F., Rastner, P., Azzoni, R. S., Diolaiuti, G., Fugazza, D., Le Bris,
R., Nemec, J., Rabatel, A., Ramusovic, M., Schwaizer, G., and Smiraglia, C.:
Glacier shrinkage in the Alps continues unabated as revealed by a new
glacier inventory from Sentinel-2, Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 12, 1805–1821,
https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-1805-2020, 2020.
Pogliotti, P., Guglielmin, M., Cremonese, E., Morra di Cella, U., Filippa, G., Pellet, C., and Hauck, C.: Warming permafrost and active layer variability at Cime Bianche, Western European Alps, The Cryosphere, 9, 647–661, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-647-2015, 2015.
Pröbstl-Haider, U., Dabrowska, K., and Haider, W.: Risk perception and
preferences of mountain tourists in light of glacial retreat and permafrost
degradation in the Austrian Alps, J. Outdoor Recreat. Tourism, 13, 66–78, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jort.2016.02.002, 2016.
Purdie, H. and Kerr, T.: Aoraki Mont Cook : Environmental change on an iconic mountaineering route, Mount. Res. Dev., 38, 364–379, https://doi.org/10.1659/MRD-JOURNAL-D-18-00042.1, 2018.
Ravanel, L. and Deline, P.: Climate influence on rockfalls in high-Alpine
steep rockwalls: The north side of the Aiguilles de Chamonix (Mont Blanc
massif) since the end of the `Little Ice Age', Holocene, 21, 357–365, https://doi.org/10.1177/0959683610374887, 2010.
Ravanel, L., Magnin, F., and Deline, P.: Impacts of the 2003 and 2015 summer
heatwaves on permafrost-affected rock-walls in the Mont Blanc massif, Sci. Total Environ., 609, 132–143, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.07.055, 2017.
Ridler, T. W. and Calvard, S.: Picture thresholding using an iterative
selection method, IEEE Trans. Syst. Man Cybern., 8, 630–632, https://doi.org/10.1109/TSMC.1978.4310039, 1978.
Ritter, F., Fiebig, M., and Muhar, A.: Impacts of Global Warming on
Mountaineering: A Classification of Phenomena Affecting the Alpine Trail
Network, Mount. Res. Dev., 32, 4–15, https://doi.org/10.1659/MRD-JOURNAL-D-11-00036.1, 2011.
Seto, M.: Freeze thaw cycles on rock surfaces below the timberline in a
montane zone: field measurements in Kobugahara, Northern Ashio Mountains,
Central Japan, Catena, 82, 218–226, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.catena.2010.06.006, 2010.
Soulé, B., Lefèvre, B., Boutroy, E., Reynier, V., Roux, F., and
Corneloup, J.: Accidentologie des sports de montagne, Etats des lieux et
diagnostic, Fondation Petzl, https://www.petzl.com/fondation/s/accidentologie-des-sports-de-montagne?language=en_US
(last access: 25 June 2021), 2014.
Temme, A. J. A. M.: Using Climber's Guidebooks to Assess Rock Fall Patterns
Over Large Spatial and Decadal Temporal Scales: An Example from the Swiss
Alps, Geograf. Ann. A, 97, 793–807, https://doi.org/10.1111/geoa.12116, 2015.
Van Everdingen, R.: Multi-language glossary of permafrost and related ground-ice terms, National Snow and Ice Data Center/World Data Center for
Glaciology, Boulder, CO, USA, updated 2005, https://globalcryospherewatch.org/reference/glossary_docs/Glossary_of_Permafrost_and_Ground-Ice_IPA_2005.pdf
(last access: 3 July 2021), 1998.
Vincent, C., Thibert, E., Gagliardini, O., Legchenko, A., Gilbert, A., Garambois, S., Condom, T., Baltassat, J. M., and Girard, J. F.: Mechanisms of subglacial cavity filling in Glacier de Tête Rousse, French Alps, J. Glaciol., 61, 609–623, https://doi.org/10.3189/2015JoG14J238, 2015.
Weber, S., Faillettaz, J., Meyer, M., Beutel, J., and Vieli, A.: Acoustic and
Microseismic Characterization in Steep Bedrock Permafrost on Matterhorn (CH), J. Geophys. Res.-Earth, 123, 1363–1385, https://doi.org/10.1029/2018JF004615, 2018.
Short summary
More frequent rockfalls in high alpine environments due to climate change are a growing threat to mountaineers. This hazard is particularly important on the classic route up Mont Blanc. Our results show that rockfalls are most frequent during snowmelt periods and the warmest hours of the day, and that mountaineers do not adapt to the local rockfall hazard when planning their ascent. Disseminating the knowledge acquired from our study caused management measures to be implemented for the route.
More frequent rockfalls in high alpine environments due to climate change are a growing threat...
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint