Articles | Volume 22, issue 11
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3765-2022
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3765-2022
Research article
 | 
23 Nov 2022
Research article |  | 23 Nov 2022

Glacial lake outburst flood hazard under current and future conditions: worst-case scenarios in a transboundary Himalayan basin

Simon K. Allen, Ashim Sattar, Owen King, Guoqing Zhang, Atanu Bhattacharya, Tandong Yao, and Tobias Bolch

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Cited articles

Allen, S. K., Linsbauer, A., Randhawa, S. S., Huggel, C., Rana, P., and Kumari, A.: Glacial lake outburst flood risk in Himachal Pradesh, India: an integrative and anticipatory approach considering current and future threats, Natural Hazards, 84, 1741–1763, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-016-2511-x, 2016. 
Allen, S. K., Zhang, G., Wang, W., Yao, T., and Bolch, T.: Potentially dangerous glacial lakes across the Tibetan Plateau revealed using a large-scale automated assessment approach, Sci. Bull., 64, 435–445, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scib.2019.03.011, 2019. 
Allen, S. K., Frey, H., Haeberli, W., Huggel, C., Chiarle, M., and Geertsema, M.: Assessment Principles for Glacier and Permafrost Hazards in Mountain Regions, Oxford Research Encyclopedias: Natural Hazard Science, Oxford University Press, Oxford, UK, https://doi.org/10.1093/acrefore/9780199389407.013.356, 2022. 
Benn, D. I., Bolch, T., Hands, K., Gulley, J., Luckman, A., Nicholson, L. I., Quincey, D., Thompson, S., Toumi, R., and Wiseman, S.: Response of debris-covered glaciers in the Mount Everest region to recent warming, and implications for outburst flood hazards, Earth Sci. Rev., 114, 156–174, 2012. 
Bhardwaj, A. and Sam, L.: Reconstruction and Characterisation of Past and the Most Recent Slope Failure Events at the 2021 Rock-Ice Avalanche Site in Chamoli, Indian Himalaya, Remote Sens.-Basel, 14, 949, https://doi.org/10.3390/rs14040949, 2022. 
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Short summary
This study demonstrates how the threat of a very large outburst from a future lake can be feasibly assessed alongside that from current lakes to inform disaster risk management within a transboundary basin between Tibet and Nepal. Results show that engineering measures and early warning systems would need to be coupled with effective land use zoning and programmes to strengthen local response capacities in order to effectively reduce the risk associated with current and future outburst events.
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