Articles | Volume 22, issue 11
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3765-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3765-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
23 Nov 2022
Research article |
| 23 Nov 2022
| 23 Nov 2022
Glacial lake outburst flood hazard under current and future conditions: worst-case scenarios in a transboundary Himalayan basin
Simon K. Allen
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Department of Geography, University of Zurich, 8057, Zurich, Switzerland
Institute for Environmental Science, University of Geneva, 1205, Geneva, Switzerland
Ashim Sattar
Department of Geography, University of Zurich, 8057, Zurich, Switzerland
Owen King
School of Geography and Sustainable Development, University of St Andrews, KY16 9AL, St Andrews, UK
Guoqing Zhang
State Key Laboratory of Tibetan Plateau Earth System, Environment and Resources (TPESER), Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China
Atanu Bhattacharya
School of Geography and Sustainable Development, University of St Andrews, KY16 9AL, St Andrews, UK
Department of Earth Sciences and Remote Sensing, JIS University, Kolkata, 700109, India
Tandong Yao
State Key Laboratory of Tibetan Plateau Earth System, Environment and Resources (TPESER), Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China
Tobias Bolch
School of Geography and Sustainable Development, University of St Andrews, KY16 9AL, St Andrews, UK
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Line Rouyet, Tobias Bolch, Francesco Brardinoni, Rafael Caduff, Diego Cusicanqui, Margaret Darrow, Reynald Delaloye, Thomas Echelard, Christophe Lambiel, Cécile Pellet, Lucas Ruiz, Lea Schmid, Flavius Sirbu, and Tazio Strozzi
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 17, 4125–4157, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-4125-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-4125-2025, 2025
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Rock glaciers are landforms generated by the creep of frozen ground (permafrost) in cold-climate mountains. Mapping rock glaciers contributes to documenting the distribution and the dynamics of mountain permafrost. We compiled inventories documenting the location, the characteristics, and the extent of rock glaciers in 12 mountain regions around the world. In each region, a team of operators performed the work following common rules and agreed on final solutions when discrepancies were identified.
Jakob Steiner, William Armstrong, Will Kochtitzky, Robert McNabb, Rodrigo Aguayo, Tobias Bolch, Fabien Maussion, Vibhor Agarwal, Iestyn Barr, Nathaniel R. Baurley, Mike Cloutier, Katelyn DeWater, Frank Donachie, Yoann Drocourt, Siddhi Garg, Gunjan Joshi, Byron Guzman, Stanislav Kutuzov, Thomas Loriaux, Caleb Mathias, Biran Menounos, Evan Miles, Aleksandra Osika, Kaleigh Potter, Adina Racoviteanu, Brianna Rick, Miles Sterner, Guy D. Tallentire, Levan Tielidze, Rebecca White, Kunpeng Wu, and Whyjay Zheng
Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2025-315, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2025-315, 2025
Preprint under review for ESSD
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Many mountain glaciers around the world flow into lakes – exactly how many however, has never been mapped. Across a large team of experts we have now identified all glaciers that end in lakes. Only about 1% do so, but they are generally larger than those which end on land. This is important to understand, as lakes can influence the behaviour of glacier ice, including how fast it disappears. This new dataset allows us to better model glaciers at a global scale, accounting for the effect of lakes.
Sonam Rinzin, Stuart Dunning, Rachel Joanne Carr, Simon Allen, Sonam Wangchuk, and Ashim Sattar
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3206, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3206, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences (NHESS).
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This study redefines dangerous glacial lakes in Bhutan by integrating flood modelling with downstream exposure and vulnerability data. It finds that around 22,399 people, 2,613 buildings, and critical infrastructure are at risk from GLOFs. Thorthormi Tsho is classified as very high danger, with five other lakes posing high threats. Fourteen LGUs face high or very high GLOF danger, including six and three lakes not previously recognized, highlighting the need for stronger GLOF preparedness.
Sonam Rinzin, Stuart Dunning, Rachel Joanne Carr, Ashim Sattar, and Martin Mergili
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1841–1864, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1841-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1841-2025, 2025
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We modelled multiple glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF) scenarios (84 simulations) and tested the effect of nine key input parameters on the modelling results using r.avaflow. Our results highlight that GLOF modelling results are subject to uncertainty from the multiple input parameters. The variation in the volume of mass movement entering the lake causes the highest uncertainty in the modelled GLOF, followed by the DEM dataset and the origin of mass movement.
Yu Zhu, Shiyin Liu, Junfeng Wei, Kunpeng Wu, Tobias Bolch, Junli Xu, Wanqin Guo, Zongli Jiang, Fuming Xie, Ying Yi, Donghui Shangguan, Xiaojun Yao, and Zhen Zhang
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 17, 1851–1871, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-1851-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-1851-2025, 2025
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This study compiled a near-complete inventory of glacier mass changes across the eastern Tibetan Plateau using topographical maps. These data enhance our understanding of glacier change variability before 2000. When combined with existing research, our dataset provides a nearly 5-decade record of mass balance, aiding hydrological simulations and assessments of mountain glacier contributions to sea-level rise.
Fenglin Xu, Yong Liu, Guoqing Zhang, Ping Zhao, R. Iestyn Woolway, Yani Zhu, Jianting Ju, Tao Zhou, Xue Wang, and Wenfeng Chen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1187–1206, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1187-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1187-2025, 2025
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Glacial lake outbursts have been widely studied, but large-inland-lake outbursts have received less attention. Recently, with the rapid expansion of inland lakes, signs of potential outbursts have increased. However, their processes, causes, and mechanisms are still not well understood. Here, the outburst processes of two inland lakes were investigated using a combination of field surveys, remote sensing mapping, and hydrodynamic modeling. Their causes and mechanisms were also investigated.
Titouan Biget, Fanny Brun, Walter Immerzeel, Leo Martin, Hamish Pritchard, Emily Colier, Yanbin Lei, and Tandong Yao
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-863, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-863, 2025
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This study explore the precipitation in the southern Tibetan plateau using the water pressure of an high altitude lake and meteorological models and shows that snowfall could be much stronger on the Plateau than what is predicted by the models.
Enrico Mattea, Etienne Berthier, Amaury Dehecq, Tobias Bolch, Atanu Bhattacharya, Sajid Ghuffar, Martina Barandun, and Martin Hoelzle
The Cryosphere, 19, 219–247, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-219-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-219-2025, 2025
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We reconstruct the evolution of terminus position, ice thickness, and surface flow velocity of the reference Abramov glacier (Kyrgyzstan) from 1968 to present. We describe a front pulsation in the early 2000s and the multi-annual present-day buildup of a new pulsation. Such dynamic instabilities can challenge the representativity of Abramov as a reference glacier. For our work we used satellite‑based optical remote sensing from multiple platforms, including recently declassified archives.
He Sun, Tandong Yao, Fengge Su, Wei Yang, and Deliang Chen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 4361–4381, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4361-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4361-2024, 2024
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Our findings show that runoff in the Yarlung Zangbo (YZ) basin is primarily driven by rainfall, with the largest glacier runoff contribution in the downstream sub-basin. Annual runoff increased in the upper stream but decreased downstream due to varying precipitation patterns. It is expected to rise throughout the 21st century, mainly driven by increased rainfall.
Livia Piermattei, Michael Zemp, Christian Sommer, Fanny Brun, Matthias H. Braun, Liss M. Andreassen, Joaquín M. C. Belart, Etienne Berthier, Atanu Bhattacharya, Laura Boehm Vock, Tobias Bolch, Amaury Dehecq, Inés Dussaillant, Daniel Falaschi, Caitlyn Florentine, Dana Floricioiu, Christian Ginzler, Gregoire Guillet, Romain Hugonnet, Matthias Huss, Andreas Kääb, Owen King, Christoph Klug, Friedrich Knuth, Lukas Krieger, Jeff La Frenierre, Robert McNabb, Christopher McNeil, Rainer Prinz, Louis Sass, Thorsten Seehaus, David Shean, Désirée Treichler, Anja Wendt, and Ruitang Yang
The Cryosphere, 18, 3195–3230, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-3195-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-3195-2024, 2024
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Satellites have made it possible to observe glacier elevation changes from all around the world. In the present study, we compared the results produced from two different types of satellite data between different research groups and against validation measurements from aeroplanes. We found a large spread between individual results but showed that the group ensemble can be used to reliably estimate glacier elevation changes and related errors from satellite data.
Niranjan Adhikari, Jing Gao, Aibin Zhao, Tianli Xu, Manli Chen, Xiaowei Niu, and Tandong Yao
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 3279–3296, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-3279-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-3279-2024, 2024
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Atmospheric water vapour isotopes at Kathmandu recorded significantly low δ18Ov and δDv values during cyclones Tauktae and Yaas in 2021, originating in the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal, respectively. Such depletion was associated with the intense moisture convergence and strong convection near the sampling site. The lower δ18Ov and higher d-excessv values during cyclone Yaas may be attributed to the occurrence of robust downdrafts during the rainfall.
Daniel Falaschi, Atanu Bhattacharya, Gregoire Guillet, Lei Huang, Owen King, Kriti Mukherjee, Philipp Rastner, Tandong Yao, and Tobias Bolch
The Cryosphere, 17, 5435–5458, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5435-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5435-2023, 2023
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Because glaciers are crucial freshwater sources in the lowlands surrounding High Mountain Asia, constraining short-term glacier mass changes is essential. We investigate the potential of state-of-the-art satellite elevation data to measure glacier mass changes in two selected regions. The results demonstrate the ability of our dataset to characterize glacier changes of different magnitudes, allowing for an increase in the number of inaccessible glaciers that can be readily monitored.
Wei Yang, Zhongyan Wang, Baosheng An, Yingying Chen, Chuanxi Zhao, Chenhui Li, Yongjie Wang, Weicai Wang, Jiule Li, Guangjian Wu, Lin Bai, Fan Zhang, and Tandong Yao
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3015–3029, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3015-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3015-2023, 2023
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We present the structure and performance of the early warning system (EWS) for glacier collapse and river blockages in the southeastern Tibetan Plateau. The EWS warned of three collapse–river blockage chain events and seven small-scale events. The volume and location of the collapses and the percentage of ice content influenced the velocities of debris flows. Such a study is helpful for understanding the mechanism of glacier hazards and for establishing similar EWSs in other high-risk regions.
Fanny Brun, Owen King, Marion Réveillet, Charles Amory, Anton Planchot, Etienne Berthier, Amaury Dehecq, Tobias Bolch, Kévin Fourteau, Julien Brondex, Marie Dumont, Christoph Mayer, Silvan Leinss, Romain Hugonnet, and Patrick Wagnon
The Cryosphere, 17, 3251–3268, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3251-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3251-2023, 2023
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The South Col Glacier is a small body of ice and snow located on the southern ridge of Mt. Everest. A recent study proposed that South Col Glacier is rapidly losing mass. In this study, we examined the glacier thickness change for the period 1984–2017 and found no thickness change. To reconcile these results, we investigate wind erosion and surface energy and mass balance and find that melt is unlikely a dominant process, contrary to previous findings.
Wei Yang, Huabiao Zhao, Baiqing Xu, Jiule Li, Weicai Wang, Guangjian Wu, Zhongyan Wang, and Tandong Yao
The Cryosphere, 17, 2625–2628, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-2625-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-2625-2023, 2023
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There is very strong scientific and public interest regarding the snow thickness on Mountain Everest. Previously reported snow depths derived by different methods and instruments ranged from 0.92 to 3.5 m. Our measurements in 2022 provide the first clear radar image of the snowpack at the top of Mount Everest. The snow thickness at Earth's summit was averaged to be 9.5 ± 1.2 m. This updated snow thickness is considerably deeper than values reported during the past 5 decades.
Sajid Ghuffar, Owen King, Grégoire Guillet, Ewelina Rupnik, and Tobias Bolch
The Cryosphere, 17, 1299–1306, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-1299-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-1299-2023, 2023
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The panoramic cameras (PCs) on board Hexagon KH-9 satellite missions from 1971–1984 captured very high-resolution stereo imagery with up to 60 cm spatial resolution. This study explores the potential of this imagery for glacier mapping and change estimation. The high resolution of KH-9PC leads to higher-quality DEMs which better resolve the accumulation region of glaciers in comparison to the KH-9 mapping camera, and KH-9PC imagery can be useful in several Earth observation applications.
Fuming Xie, Shiyin Liu, Yongpeng Gao, Yu Zhu, Tobias Bolch, Andreas Kääb, Shimei Duan, Wenfei Miao, Jianfang Kang, Yaonan Zhang, Xiran Pan, Caixia Qin, Kunpeng Wu, Miaomiao Qi, Xianhe Zhang, Ying Yi, Fengze Han, Xiaojun Yao, Qiao Liu, Xin Wang, Zongli Jiang, Donghui Shangguan, Yong Zhang, Richard Grünwald, Muhammad Adnan, Jyoti Karki, and Muhammad Saifullah
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 847–867, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-847-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-847-2023, 2023
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In this study, first we generated inventories which allowed us to systematically detect glacier change patterns in the Karakoram range. We found that, by the 2020s, there were approximately 10 500 glaciers in the Karakoram mountains covering an area of 22 510.73 km2, of which ~ 10.2 % is covered by debris. During the past 30 years (from 1990 to 2020), the total glacier cover area in Karakoram remained relatively stable, with a slight increase in area of 23.5 km2.
Yu Zhu, Shiyin Liu, Junfeng Wei, Kunpeng Wu, Tobias Bolch, Junli Xu, Wanqin Guo, Zongli Jiang, Fuming Xie, Ying Yi, Donghui Shangguan, Xiaojun Yao, and Zhen Zhang
Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2022-473, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2022-473, 2023
Preprint withdrawn
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In this study, we presented a nearly complete inventory of glacier mass change dataset across the eastern Tibetan Plateau by using topographical maps, which will enhance the knowledge on the heterogeneity of glacier change before 2000. Our dataset, in combination with the published results, provide a nearly five decades mass balance to support hydrological simulation, and to evaluate the contribution of mountain glacier loss to sea level.
He Sun, Tandong Yao, Fengge Su, Wei Yang, Guifeng Huang, and Deliang Chen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2023-16, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2023-16, 2023
Manuscript not accepted for further review
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Based on field research campaigns since 2017 in the Yarlung Zangbo (YZ) river basin and a well-validated model, our results reveal that large regional differences in runoff regimes and changes exist in the basin. Annual runoff shows decreasing trend in the downstream sub-basin but increasing trends in the upper and middle sub-basins, due to opposing precipitation changes. Glacier runoff plays more important role in annual total runoff in downstream basin.
Adam Emmer, Simon K. Allen, Mark Carey, Holger Frey, Christian Huggel, Oliver Korup, Martin Mergili, Ashim Sattar, Georg Veh, Thomas Y. Chen, Simon J. Cook, Mariana Correas-Gonzalez, Soumik Das, Alejandro Diaz Moreno, Fabian Drenkhan, Melanie Fischer, Walter W. Immerzeel, Eñaut Izagirre, Ramesh Chandra Joshi, Ioannis Kougkoulos, Riamsara Kuyakanon Knapp, Dongfeng Li, Ulfat Majeed, Stephanie Matti, Holly Moulton, Faezeh Nick, Valentine Piroton, Irfan Rashid, Masoom Reza, Anderson Ribeiro de Figueiredo, Christian Riveros, Finu Shrestha, Milan Shrestha, Jakob Steiner, Noah Walker-Crawford, Joanne L. Wood, and Jacob C. Yde
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3041–3061, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3041-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3041-2022, 2022
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Glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) have attracted increased research attention recently. In this work, we review GLOF research papers published between 2017 and 2021 and complement the analysis with research community insights gained from the 2021 GLOF conference we organized. The transdisciplinary character of the conference together with broad geographical coverage allowed us to identify progress, trends and challenges in GLOF research and outline future research needs and directions.
Aldo Bertone, Chloé Barboux, Xavier Bodin, Tobias Bolch, Francesco Brardinoni, Rafael Caduff, Hanne H. Christiansen, Margaret M. Darrow, Reynald Delaloye, Bernd Etzelmüller, Ole Humlum, Christophe Lambiel, Karianne S. Lilleøren, Volkmar Mair, Gabriel Pellegrinon, Line Rouyet, Lucas Ruiz, and Tazio Strozzi
The Cryosphere, 16, 2769–2792, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-2769-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-2769-2022, 2022
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We present the guidelines developed by the IPA Action Group and within the ESA Permafrost CCI project to include InSAR-based kinematic information in rock glacier inventories. Nine operators applied these guidelines to 11 regions worldwide; more than 3600 rock glaciers are classified according to their kinematics. We test and demonstrate the feasibility of applying common rules to produce homogeneous kinematic inventories at global scale, useful for hydrological and climate change purposes.
Benjamin Aubrey Robson, Shelley MacDonell, Álvaro Ayala, Tobias Bolch, Pål Ringkjøb Nielsen, and Sebastián Vivero
The Cryosphere, 16, 647–665, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-647-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-647-2022, 2022
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This work uses satellite and aerial data to study glaciers and rock glacier changes in La Laguna catchment within the semi-arid Andes of Chile, where ice melt is an important factor in river flow. The results show the rate of ice loss of Tapado Glacier has been increasing since the 1950s, which possibly relates to a dryer, warmer climate over the previous decades. Several rock glaciers show high surface velocities and elevation changes between 2012 and 2020, indicating they may be ice-rich.
Gregoire Guillet, Owen King, Mingyang Lv, Sajid Ghuffar, Douglas Benn, Duncan Quincey, and Tobias Bolch
The Cryosphere, 16, 603–623, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-603-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-603-2022, 2022
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Surging glaciers show cyclical changes in flow behavior – between slow and fast flow – and can have drastic impacts on settlements in their vicinity.
One of the clusters of surging glaciers worldwide is High Mountain Asia (HMA).
We present an inventory of surging glaciers in HMA, identified from satellite imagery. We show that the number of surging glaciers was underestimated and that they represent 20 % of the area covered by glaciers in HMA, before discussing new physics for glacier surges.
Wenfeng Chen, Tandong Yao, Guoqing Zhang, Fei Li, Guoxiong Zheng, Yushan Zhou, and Fenglin Xu
The Cryosphere, 16, 197–218, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-197-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-197-2022, 2022
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A digital elevation model (DEM) is a prerequisite for estimating regional glacier thickness. Our study first compared six widely used global DEMs over the glacierized Tibetan Plateau by using ICESat-2 (Ice, Cloud and land Elevation Satellite) laser altimetry data. Our results show that NASADEM had the best accuracy. We conclude that NASADEM would be the best choice for ice-thickness estimation over the Tibetan Plateau through an intercomparison of four ice-thickness inversion models.
Jan Bouke Pronk, Tobias Bolch, Owen King, Bert Wouters, and Douglas I. Benn
The Cryosphere, 15, 5577–5599, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-5577-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-5577-2021, 2021
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About 10 % of Himalayan glaciers flow directly into lakes. This study finds, using satellite imagery, that such glaciers show higher flow velocities than glaciers without ice–lake contact. In particular near the glacier tongue the impact of a lake on the glacier flow can be dramatic. The development of current and new meltwater bodies will influence the flow of an increasing number of Himalayan glaciers in the future, a scenario not currently considered in regional ice loss projections.
Guoqing Zhang, Youhua Ran, Wei Wan, Wei Luo, Wenfeng Chen, Fenglin Xu, and Xin Li
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 13, 3951–3966, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-3951-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-3951-2021, 2021
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Lakes can be effective indicators of climate change, especially over the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau. Here, we provide the most comprehensive lake mapping covering the past 100 years. The new features of this data set are (1) its temporal length, providing the longest period of lake observations from maps, (2) the data set provides a state-of-the-art lake inventory for the Landsat era (from the 1970s to 2020), and (3) it provides the densest lake observations for lakes with areas larger than 1 km2.
Yongkang Xue, Tandong Yao, Aaron A. Boone, Ismaila Diallo, Ye Liu, Xubin Zeng, William K. M. Lau, Shiori Sugimoto, Qi Tang, Xiaoduo Pan, Peter J. van Oevelen, Daniel Klocke, Myung-Seo Koo, Tomonori Sato, Zhaohui Lin, Yuhei Takaya, Constantin Ardilouze, Stefano Materia, Subodh K. Saha, Retish Senan, Tetsu Nakamura, Hailan Wang, Jing Yang, Hongliang Zhang, Mei Zhao, Xin-Zhong Liang, J. David Neelin, Frederic Vitart, Xin Li, Ping Zhao, Chunxiang Shi, Weidong Guo, Jianping Tang, Miao Yu, Yun Qian, Samuel S. P. Shen, Yang Zhang, Kun Yang, Ruby Leung, Yuan Qiu, Daniele Peano, Xin Qi, Yanling Zhan, Michael A. Brunke, Sin Chan Chou, Michael Ek, Tianyi Fan, Hong Guan, Hai Lin, Shunlin Liang, Helin Wei, Shaocheng Xie, Haoran Xu, Weiping Li, Xueli Shi, Paulo Nobre, Yan Pan, Yi Qin, Jeff Dozier, Craig R. Ferguson, Gianpaolo Balsamo, Qing Bao, Jinming Feng, Jinkyu Hong, Songyou Hong, Huilin Huang, Duoying Ji, Zhenming Ji, Shichang Kang, Yanluan Lin, Weiguang Liu, Ryan Muncaster, Patricia de Rosnay, Hiroshi G. Takahashi, Guiling Wang, Shuyu Wang, Weicai Wang, Xu Zhou, and Yuejian Zhu
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 4465–4494, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-4465-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-4465-2021, 2021
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The subseasonal prediction of extreme hydroclimate events such as droughts/floods has remained stubbornly low for years. This paper presents a new international initiative which, for the first time, introduces spring land surface temperature anomalies over high mountains to improve precipitation prediction through remote effects of land–atmosphere interactions. More than 40 institutions worldwide are participating in this effort. The experimental protocol and preliminary results are presented.
Yanbin Lei, Tandong Yao, Kun Yang, Lazhu, Yaoming Ma, and Broxton W. Bird
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 3163–3177, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-3163-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-3163-2021, 2021
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Lake evaporation from Paiku Co on the TP is low in spring and summer and high in autumn and early winter. There is a ~ 5-month lag between net radiation and evaporation due to large lake heat storage. High evaporation and low inflow cause significant lake-level decrease in autumn and early winter, while low evaporation and high inflow cause considerable lake-level increase in summer. This study implies that evaporation can affect the different amplitudes of lake-level variations on the TP.
Andreas Kääb, Tazio Strozzi, Tobias Bolch, Rafael Caduff, Håkon Trefall, Markus Stoffel, and Alexander Kokarev
The Cryosphere, 15, 927–949, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-927-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-927-2021, 2021
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We present a map of rock glacier motion over parts of the northern Tien Shan and time series of surface speed for six of them over almost 70 years.
This is by far the most detailed investigation of this kind available for central Asia.
We detect a 2- to 4-fold increase in rock glacier motion between the 1950s and present, which we attribute to atmospheric warming.
Relative to the shrinking glaciers in the region, this implies increased importance of periglacial sediment transport.
Yanbin Lei, Tandong Yao, Lide Tian, Yongwei Sheng, Lazhu, Jingjuan Liao, Huabiao Zhao, Wei Yang, Kun Yang, Etienne Berthier, Fanny Brun, Yang Gao, Meilin Zhu, and Guangjian Wu
The Cryosphere, 15, 199–214, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-199-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-199-2021, 2021
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Two glaciers in the Aru range, western Tibetan Plateau (TP), collapsed suddenly on 17 July and 21 September 2016, respectively, causing fatal damage to local people and their livestock. The impact of the glacier collapses on the two downstream lakes (i.e., Aru Co and Memar Co) is investigated in terms of lake morphology, water level and water temperature. Our results provide a baseline in understanding the future lake response to glacier melting on the TP under a warming climate.
Franz Goerlich, Tobias Bolch, and Frank Paul
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 12, 3161–3176, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-3161-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-3161-2020, 2020
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This work indicates all glaciers in the Pamir that surged between 1988 and 2018 as revealed by different remote sensing data, mainly Landsat imagery. We found ~ 200 surging glaciers for the entire mountain range and detected the minimum and maximum extents of most of them. The smallest surging glacier is ~ 0.3 km2. This inventory is important for further research on the surging behaviour of glaciers and has to be considered when processing glacier changes (mass, area) of the region.
Cited articles
Allen, S. K., Linsbauer, A., Randhawa, S. S., Huggel, C., Rana, P., and Kumari, A.: Glacial lake outburst flood risk in Himachal Pradesh, India: an integrative and anticipatory approach considering current and future threats, Natural Hazards, 84, 1741–1763, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-016-2511-x, 2016.
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Short summary
This study demonstrates how the threat of a very large outburst from a future lake can be feasibly assessed alongside that from current lakes to inform disaster risk management within a transboundary basin between Tibet and Nepal. Results show that engineering measures and early warning systems would need to be coupled with effective land use zoning and programmes to strengthen local response capacities in order to effectively reduce the risk associated with current and future outburst events.
This study demonstrates how the threat of a very large outburst from a future lake can be...
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