Articles | Volume 22, issue 11
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3765-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3765-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
23 Nov 2022
Research article |
| 23 Nov 2022
| 23 Nov 2022
Glacial lake outburst flood hazard under current and future conditions: worst-case scenarios in a transboundary Himalayan basin
Simon K. Allen
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Department of Geography, University of Zurich, 8057, Zurich, Switzerland
Institute for Environmental Science, University of Geneva, 1205, Geneva, Switzerland
Ashim Sattar
Department of Geography, University of Zurich, 8057, Zurich, Switzerland
Owen King
School of Geography and Sustainable Development, University of St Andrews, KY16 9AL, St Andrews, UK
Guoqing Zhang
State Key Laboratory of Tibetan Plateau Earth System, Environment and Resources (TPESER), Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China
Atanu Bhattacharya
School of Geography and Sustainable Development, University of St Andrews, KY16 9AL, St Andrews, UK
Department of Earth Sciences and Remote Sensing, JIS University, Kolkata, 700109, India
Tandong Yao
State Key Laboratory of Tibetan Plateau Earth System, Environment and Resources (TPESER), Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China
Tobias Bolch
School of Geography and Sustainable Development, University of St Andrews, KY16 9AL, St Andrews, UK
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He Sun, Tandong Yao, Fengge Su, Wei Yang, and Deliang Chen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 4361–4381, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4361-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4361-2024, 2024
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Our findings show that runoff in the Yarlung Zangbo (YZ) basin is primarily driven by rainfall, with the largest glacier runoff contribution in the downstream sub-basin. Annual runoff increased in the upper stream but decreased downstream due to varying precipitation patterns. It is expected to rise throughout the 21st century, mainly driven by increased rainfall.
Fenglin Xu, Yong Liu, Guoqing Zhang, Ping Zhao, R. Iestyn Woolway, Yani Zhu, Jianting Ju, Tao Zhou, Xue Wang, and Wenfeng Chen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-127, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-127, 2024
Revised manuscript under review for NHESS
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Glacial lake outbursts have been widely studied, but large inland lake outbursts have received less attention. Recently, with the rapid expansion of inland lakes, signs of potential outbursts have increased. However, the processes, causes, and mechanisms are still not well understood. Here, the outburst processes were investigated using a combination of field surveys, remote sensing mapping, and hydrodynamic modelling. The causes and mechanisms that triggered the two events were investigated.
Enrico Mattea, Etienne Berthier, Amaury Dehecq, Tobias Bolch, Atanu Bhattacharya, Sajid Ghuffar, Martina Barandun, and Martin Hoelzle
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2169, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2169, 2024
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We reconstruct the evolution of terminus position, ice thickness and surface flow velocity of the reference Abramov glacier (Kyrgyzstan) from 1968 to present. We describe a front pulsation in the early 2000s and the multi-annual present-day buildup of a new pulsation. Such dynamic instabilities can challenge the representativity of Abramov as reference glacier. For our work we used satellite‑based optical remote sensing from multiple platforms, including recently declassified archives.
Yu Zhu, Shiyin Liu, Junfeng Wei, Kunpeng Wu, Tobias Bolch, Junli Xu, Wanqin Guo, Zongli Jiang, Fuming Xie, Ying Yi, Donghui Shangguan, Xiaojun Yao, and Zhen Zhang
Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2024-255, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2024-255, 2024
Preprint under review for ESSD
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This study compiled a near-complete inventory of glacier mass changes across the eastern Tibetan Plateau using topographical maps. This data enhances our understanding of glacier change variability before 2000. When combined with existing research, our dataset provides a nearly five-decade record of mass balance, aiding hydrological simulations and assessments of mountain glacier contributions to sea-level rise.
Sonam Rinzin, Stuart Dunning, Rachel Carr, Ashim Sattar, and Martin Mergili
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1819, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1819, 2024
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We evaluated the sensitivity of model outputs to input parameter uncertainties by performing multiple GLOF simulations using the r.avaflow model. We found out that GLOF modelling outputs are highly sensitive to six parameters: volume of mass movements entering lakes, DEM datasets, origin of mass movements, mesh size, basal frictional angle, and entrainment coefficient. Future modelling should carefully consider the output uncertainty from these sensitive parameters.
Livia Piermattei, Michael Zemp, Christian Sommer, Fanny Brun, Matthias H. Braun, Liss M. Andreassen, Joaquín M. C. Belart, Etienne Berthier, Atanu Bhattacharya, Laura Boehm Vock, Tobias Bolch, Amaury Dehecq, Inés Dussaillant, Daniel Falaschi, Caitlyn Florentine, Dana Floricioiu, Christian Ginzler, Gregoire Guillet, Romain Hugonnet, Matthias Huss, Andreas Kääb, Owen King, Christoph Klug, Friedrich Knuth, Lukas Krieger, Jeff La Frenierre, Robert McNabb, Christopher McNeil, Rainer Prinz, Louis Sass, Thorsten Seehaus, David Shean, Désirée Treichler, Anja Wendt, and Ruitang Yang
The Cryosphere, 18, 3195–3230, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-3195-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-3195-2024, 2024
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Satellites have made it possible to observe glacier elevation changes from all around the world. In the present study, we compared the results produced from two different types of satellite data between different research groups and against validation measurements from aeroplanes. We found a large spread between individual results but showed that the group ensemble can be used to reliably estimate glacier elevation changes and related errors from satellite data.
Niranjan Adhikari, Jing Gao, Aibin Zhao, Tianli Xu, Manli Chen, Xiaowei Niu, and Tandong Yao
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 3279–3296, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-3279-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-3279-2024, 2024
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Atmospheric water vapour isotopes at Kathmandu recorded significantly low δ18Ov and δDv values during cyclones Tauktae and Yaas in 2021, originating in the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal, respectively. Such depletion was associated with the intense moisture convergence and strong convection near the sampling site. The lower δ18Ov and higher d-excessv values during cyclone Yaas may be attributed to the occurrence of robust downdrafts during the rainfall.
Daniel Falaschi, Atanu Bhattacharya, Gregoire Guillet, Lei Huang, Owen King, Kriti Mukherjee, Philipp Rastner, Tandong Yao, and Tobias Bolch
The Cryosphere, 17, 5435–5458, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5435-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5435-2023, 2023
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Because glaciers are crucial freshwater sources in the lowlands surrounding High Mountain Asia, constraining short-term glacier mass changes is essential. We investigate the potential of state-of-the-art satellite elevation data to measure glacier mass changes in two selected regions. The results demonstrate the ability of our dataset to characterize glacier changes of different magnitudes, allowing for an increase in the number of inaccessible glaciers that can be readily monitored.
Wei Yang, Zhongyan Wang, Baosheng An, Yingying Chen, Chuanxi Zhao, Chenhui Li, Yongjie Wang, Weicai Wang, Jiule Li, Guangjian Wu, Lin Bai, Fan Zhang, and Tandong Yao
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3015–3029, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3015-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3015-2023, 2023
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We present the structure and performance of the early warning system (EWS) for glacier collapse and river blockages in the southeastern Tibetan Plateau. The EWS warned of three collapse–river blockage chain events and seven small-scale events. The volume and location of the collapses and the percentage of ice content influenced the velocities of debris flows. Such a study is helpful for understanding the mechanism of glacier hazards and for establishing similar EWSs in other high-risk regions.
Fanny Brun, Owen King, Marion Réveillet, Charles Amory, Anton Planchot, Etienne Berthier, Amaury Dehecq, Tobias Bolch, Kévin Fourteau, Julien Brondex, Marie Dumont, Christoph Mayer, Silvan Leinss, Romain Hugonnet, and Patrick Wagnon
The Cryosphere, 17, 3251–3268, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3251-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3251-2023, 2023
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The South Col Glacier is a small body of ice and snow located on the southern ridge of Mt. Everest. A recent study proposed that South Col Glacier is rapidly losing mass. In this study, we examined the glacier thickness change for the period 1984–2017 and found no thickness change. To reconcile these results, we investigate wind erosion and surface energy and mass balance and find that melt is unlikely a dominant process, contrary to previous findings.
Wei Yang, Huabiao Zhao, Baiqing Xu, Jiule Li, Weicai Wang, Guangjian Wu, Zhongyan Wang, and Tandong Yao
The Cryosphere, 17, 2625–2628, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-2625-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-2625-2023, 2023
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There is very strong scientific and public interest regarding the snow thickness on Mountain Everest. Previously reported snow depths derived by different methods and instruments ranged from 0.92 to 3.5 m. Our measurements in 2022 provide the first clear radar image of the snowpack at the top of Mount Everest. The snow thickness at Earth's summit was averaged to be 9.5 ± 1.2 m. This updated snow thickness is considerably deeper than values reported during the past 5 decades.
Sajid Ghuffar, Owen King, Grégoire Guillet, Ewelina Rupnik, and Tobias Bolch
The Cryosphere, 17, 1299–1306, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-1299-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-1299-2023, 2023
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The panoramic cameras (PCs) on board Hexagon KH-9 satellite missions from 1971–1984 captured very high-resolution stereo imagery with up to 60 cm spatial resolution. This study explores the potential of this imagery for glacier mapping and change estimation. The high resolution of KH-9PC leads to higher-quality DEMs which better resolve the accumulation region of glaciers in comparison to the KH-9 mapping camera, and KH-9PC imagery can be useful in several Earth observation applications.
Fuming Xie, Shiyin Liu, Yongpeng Gao, Yu Zhu, Tobias Bolch, Andreas Kääb, Shimei Duan, Wenfei Miao, Jianfang Kang, Yaonan Zhang, Xiran Pan, Caixia Qin, Kunpeng Wu, Miaomiao Qi, Xianhe Zhang, Ying Yi, Fengze Han, Xiaojun Yao, Qiao Liu, Xin Wang, Zongli Jiang, Donghui Shangguan, Yong Zhang, Richard Grünwald, Muhammad Adnan, Jyoti Karki, and Muhammad Saifullah
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 847–867, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-847-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-847-2023, 2023
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In this study, first we generated inventories which allowed us to systematically detect glacier change patterns in the Karakoram range. We found that, by the 2020s, there were approximately 10 500 glaciers in the Karakoram mountains covering an area of 22 510.73 km2, of which ~ 10.2 % is covered by debris. During the past 30 years (from 1990 to 2020), the total glacier cover area in Karakoram remained relatively stable, with a slight increase in area of 23.5 km2.
Yu Zhu, Shiyin Liu, Junfeng Wei, Kunpeng Wu, Tobias Bolch, Junli Xu, Wanqin Guo, Zongli Jiang, Fuming Xie, Ying Yi, Donghui Shangguan, Xiaojun Yao, and Zhen Zhang
Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2022-473, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2022-473, 2023
Preprint withdrawn
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In this study, we presented a nearly complete inventory of glacier mass change dataset across the eastern Tibetan Plateau by using topographical maps, which will enhance the knowledge on the heterogeneity of glacier change before 2000. Our dataset, in combination with the published results, provide a nearly five decades mass balance to support hydrological simulation, and to evaluate the contribution of mountain glacier loss to sea level.
He Sun, Tandong Yao, Fengge Su, Wei Yang, Guifeng Huang, and Deliang Chen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2023-16, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2023-16, 2023
Manuscript not accepted for further review
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Based on field research campaigns since 2017 in the Yarlung Zangbo (YZ) river basin and a well-validated model, our results reveal that large regional differences in runoff regimes and changes exist in the basin. Annual runoff shows decreasing trend in the downstream sub-basin but increasing trends in the upper and middle sub-basins, due to opposing precipitation changes. Glacier runoff plays more important role in annual total runoff in downstream basin.
Adam Emmer, Simon K. Allen, Mark Carey, Holger Frey, Christian Huggel, Oliver Korup, Martin Mergili, Ashim Sattar, Georg Veh, Thomas Y. Chen, Simon J. Cook, Mariana Correas-Gonzalez, Soumik Das, Alejandro Diaz Moreno, Fabian Drenkhan, Melanie Fischer, Walter W. Immerzeel, Eñaut Izagirre, Ramesh Chandra Joshi, Ioannis Kougkoulos, Riamsara Kuyakanon Knapp, Dongfeng Li, Ulfat Majeed, Stephanie Matti, Holly Moulton, Faezeh Nick, Valentine Piroton, Irfan Rashid, Masoom Reza, Anderson Ribeiro de Figueiredo, Christian Riveros, Finu Shrestha, Milan Shrestha, Jakob Steiner, Noah Walker-Crawford, Joanne L. Wood, and Jacob C. Yde
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3041–3061, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3041-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3041-2022, 2022
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Glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) have attracted increased research attention recently. In this work, we review GLOF research papers published between 2017 and 2021 and complement the analysis with research community insights gained from the 2021 GLOF conference we organized. The transdisciplinary character of the conference together with broad geographical coverage allowed us to identify progress, trends and challenges in GLOF research and outline future research needs and directions.
Aldo Bertone, Chloé Barboux, Xavier Bodin, Tobias Bolch, Francesco Brardinoni, Rafael Caduff, Hanne H. Christiansen, Margaret M. Darrow, Reynald Delaloye, Bernd Etzelmüller, Ole Humlum, Christophe Lambiel, Karianne S. Lilleøren, Volkmar Mair, Gabriel Pellegrinon, Line Rouyet, Lucas Ruiz, and Tazio Strozzi
The Cryosphere, 16, 2769–2792, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-2769-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-2769-2022, 2022
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We present the guidelines developed by the IPA Action Group and within the ESA Permafrost CCI project to include InSAR-based kinematic information in rock glacier inventories. Nine operators applied these guidelines to 11 regions worldwide; more than 3600 rock glaciers are classified according to their kinematics. We test and demonstrate the feasibility of applying common rules to produce homogeneous kinematic inventories at global scale, useful for hydrological and climate change purposes.
Benjamin Aubrey Robson, Shelley MacDonell, Álvaro Ayala, Tobias Bolch, Pål Ringkjøb Nielsen, and Sebastián Vivero
The Cryosphere, 16, 647–665, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-647-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-647-2022, 2022
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This work uses satellite and aerial data to study glaciers and rock glacier changes in La Laguna catchment within the semi-arid Andes of Chile, where ice melt is an important factor in river flow. The results show the rate of ice loss of Tapado Glacier has been increasing since the 1950s, which possibly relates to a dryer, warmer climate over the previous decades. Several rock glaciers show high surface velocities and elevation changes between 2012 and 2020, indicating they may be ice-rich.
Gregoire Guillet, Owen King, Mingyang Lv, Sajid Ghuffar, Douglas Benn, Duncan Quincey, and Tobias Bolch
The Cryosphere, 16, 603–623, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-603-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-603-2022, 2022
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Surging glaciers show cyclical changes in flow behavior – between slow and fast flow – and can have drastic impacts on settlements in their vicinity.
One of the clusters of surging glaciers worldwide is High Mountain Asia (HMA).
We present an inventory of surging glaciers in HMA, identified from satellite imagery. We show that the number of surging glaciers was underestimated and that they represent 20 % of the area covered by glaciers in HMA, before discussing new physics for glacier surges.
Wenfeng Chen, Tandong Yao, Guoqing Zhang, Fei Li, Guoxiong Zheng, Yushan Zhou, and Fenglin Xu
The Cryosphere, 16, 197–218, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-197-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-197-2022, 2022
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A digital elevation model (DEM) is a prerequisite for estimating regional glacier thickness. Our study first compared six widely used global DEMs over the glacierized Tibetan Plateau by using ICESat-2 (Ice, Cloud and land Elevation Satellite) laser altimetry data. Our results show that NASADEM had the best accuracy. We conclude that NASADEM would be the best choice for ice-thickness estimation over the Tibetan Plateau through an intercomparison of four ice-thickness inversion models.
Jan Bouke Pronk, Tobias Bolch, Owen King, Bert Wouters, and Douglas I. Benn
The Cryosphere, 15, 5577–5599, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-5577-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-5577-2021, 2021
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About 10 % of Himalayan glaciers flow directly into lakes. This study finds, using satellite imagery, that such glaciers show higher flow velocities than glaciers without ice–lake contact. In particular near the glacier tongue the impact of a lake on the glacier flow can be dramatic. The development of current and new meltwater bodies will influence the flow of an increasing number of Himalayan glaciers in the future, a scenario not currently considered in regional ice loss projections.
Guoqing Zhang, Youhua Ran, Wei Wan, Wei Luo, Wenfeng Chen, Fenglin Xu, and Xin Li
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 13, 3951–3966, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-3951-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-3951-2021, 2021
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Lakes can be effective indicators of climate change, especially over the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau. Here, we provide the most comprehensive lake mapping covering the past 100 years. The new features of this data set are (1) its temporal length, providing the longest period of lake observations from maps, (2) the data set provides a state-of-the-art lake inventory for the Landsat era (from the 1970s to 2020), and (3) it provides the densest lake observations for lakes with areas larger than 1 km2.
Yongkang Xue, Tandong Yao, Aaron A. Boone, Ismaila Diallo, Ye Liu, Xubin Zeng, William K. M. Lau, Shiori Sugimoto, Qi Tang, Xiaoduo Pan, Peter J. van Oevelen, Daniel Klocke, Myung-Seo Koo, Tomonori Sato, Zhaohui Lin, Yuhei Takaya, Constantin Ardilouze, Stefano Materia, Subodh K. Saha, Retish Senan, Tetsu Nakamura, Hailan Wang, Jing Yang, Hongliang Zhang, Mei Zhao, Xin-Zhong Liang, J. David Neelin, Frederic Vitart, Xin Li, Ping Zhao, Chunxiang Shi, Weidong Guo, Jianping Tang, Miao Yu, Yun Qian, Samuel S. P. Shen, Yang Zhang, Kun Yang, Ruby Leung, Yuan Qiu, Daniele Peano, Xin Qi, Yanling Zhan, Michael A. Brunke, Sin Chan Chou, Michael Ek, Tianyi Fan, Hong Guan, Hai Lin, Shunlin Liang, Helin Wei, Shaocheng Xie, Haoran Xu, Weiping Li, Xueli Shi, Paulo Nobre, Yan Pan, Yi Qin, Jeff Dozier, Craig R. Ferguson, Gianpaolo Balsamo, Qing Bao, Jinming Feng, Jinkyu Hong, Songyou Hong, Huilin Huang, Duoying Ji, Zhenming Ji, Shichang Kang, Yanluan Lin, Weiguang Liu, Ryan Muncaster, Patricia de Rosnay, Hiroshi G. Takahashi, Guiling Wang, Shuyu Wang, Weicai Wang, Xu Zhou, and Yuejian Zhu
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 4465–4494, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-4465-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-4465-2021, 2021
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The subseasonal prediction of extreme hydroclimate events such as droughts/floods has remained stubbornly low for years. This paper presents a new international initiative which, for the first time, introduces spring land surface temperature anomalies over high mountains to improve precipitation prediction through remote effects of land–atmosphere interactions. More than 40 institutions worldwide are participating in this effort. The experimental protocol and preliminary results are presented.
Yanbin Lei, Tandong Yao, Kun Yang, Lazhu, Yaoming Ma, and Broxton W. Bird
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 3163–3177, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-3163-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-3163-2021, 2021
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Lake evaporation from Paiku Co on the TP is low in spring and summer and high in autumn and early winter. There is a ~ 5-month lag between net radiation and evaporation due to large lake heat storage. High evaporation and low inflow cause significant lake-level decrease in autumn and early winter, while low evaporation and high inflow cause considerable lake-level increase in summer. This study implies that evaporation can affect the different amplitudes of lake-level variations on the TP.
Andreas Kääb, Tazio Strozzi, Tobias Bolch, Rafael Caduff, Håkon Trefall, Markus Stoffel, and Alexander Kokarev
The Cryosphere, 15, 927–949, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-927-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-927-2021, 2021
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We present a map of rock glacier motion over parts of the northern Tien Shan and time series of surface speed for six of them over almost 70 years.
This is by far the most detailed investigation of this kind available for central Asia.
We detect a 2- to 4-fold increase in rock glacier motion between the 1950s and present, which we attribute to atmospheric warming.
Relative to the shrinking glaciers in the region, this implies increased importance of periglacial sediment transport.
Yanbin Lei, Tandong Yao, Lide Tian, Yongwei Sheng, Lazhu, Jingjuan Liao, Huabiao Zhao, Wei Yang, Kun Yang, Etienne Berthier, Fanny Brun, Yang Gao, Meilin Zhu, and Guangjian Wu
The Cryosphere, 15, 199–214, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-199-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-199-2021, 2021
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Two glaciers in the Aru range, western Tibetan Plateau (TP), collapsed suddenly on 17 July and 21 September 2016, respectively, causing fatal damage to local people and their livestock. The impact of the glacier collapses on the two downstream lakes (i.e., Aru Co and Memar Co) is investigated in terms of lake morphology, water level and water temperature. Our results provide a baseline in understanding the future lake response to glacier melting on the TP under a warming climate.
Franz Goerlich, Tobias Bolch, and Frank Paul
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 12, 3161–3176, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-3161-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-3161-2020, 2020
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This work indicates all glaciers in the Pamir that surged between 1988 and 2018 as revealed by different remote sensing data, mainly Landsat imagery. We found ~ 200 surging glaciers for the entire mountain range and detected the minimum and maximum extents of most of them. The smallest surging glacier is ~ 0.3 km2. This inventory is important for further research on the surging behaviour of glaciers and has to be considered when processing glacier changes (mass, area) of the region.
Levan G. Tielidze, Tobias Bolch, Roger D. Wheate, Stanislav S. Kutuzov, Ivan I. Lavrentiev, and Michael Zemp
The Cryosphere, 14, 585–598, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-585-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-585-2020, 2020
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We present data of supra-glacial debris cover for 659 glaciers across the Greater Caucasus based on satellite images from the years 1986, 2000 and 2014. We combined semi-automated methods for mapping the clean ice with manual digitization of debris-covered glacier parts and calculated supra-glacial debris-covered area as the residual between these two maps. The distribution of the supra-glacial debris cover differs between northern and southern and between western, central and eastern Caucasus.
Yanbin Lei, Tandong Yao, Kun Yang, Zhu La, Yaoming Ma, and Broxton W. Bird
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2019-421, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2019-421, 2019
Revised manuscript not accepted
Nico Mölg, Tobias Bolch, Andrea Walter, and Andreas Vieli
The Cryosphere, 13, 1889–1909, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-1889-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-1889-2019, 2019
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Debris can partly protect glaciers from melting. But many debris-covered glaciers change similar to debris-free glaciers. To better understand the debris influence we investigated 150 years of evolution of Zmutt Glacier in Switzerland. We found an increase in debris extent over time and a link to glacier flow velocity changes. We also found an influence of debris on the melt locally, but only a small volume change reduction over the whole glacier, also because of the influence of ice cliffs.
Nico Mölg, Tobias Bolch, Philipp Rastner, Tazio Strozzi, and Frank Paul
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 10, 1807–1827, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-1807-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-1807-2018, 2018
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Knowledge about the size and location of glaciers is essential to understand impacts of climatic changes on the natural environment. Therefore, we have produced an inventory of all glaciers in some of the largest glacierized mountain regions worldwide. Many large glaciers are covered by a rock (debris) layer, which also changes their reaction to climatic changes. Thus, we have also mapped this debris layer for all glaciers. We have mapped almost 28000 glaciers covering ~35000 km2.
Adrien Gilbert, Silvan Leinss, Jeffrey Kargel, Andreas Kääb, Simon Gascoin, Gregory Leonard, Etienne Berthier, Alina Karki, and Tandong Yao
The Cryosphere, 12, 2883–2900, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-2883-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-2883-2018, 2018
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In Tibet, two glaciers suddenly collapsed in summer 2016 and produced two gigantic ice avalanches, killing nine people. This kind of phenomenon is extremely rare. By combining a detailed modelling study and high-resolution satellite observations, we show that the event was triggered by an increasing meltwater supply in the fine-grained material underneath the two glaciers. Contrary to what is often thought, this event is not linked to a change in the thermal condition at the glacier base.
Martina Barandun, Matthias Huss, Ryskul Usubaliev, Erlan Azisov, Etienne Berthier, Andreas Kääb, Tobias Bolch, and Martin Hoelzle
The Cryosphere, 12, 1899–1919, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-1899-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-1899-2018, 2018
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In this study, we used three independent methods (in situ measurements, comparison of digital elevation models and modelling) to reconstruct the mass change from 2000 to 2016 for three glaciers in the Tien Shan and Pamir. Snow lines observed on remote sensing images were used to improve conventional modelling by constraining a mass balance model. As a result, glacier mass changes for unmeasured years and glaciers can be better assessed. Substantial mass loss was confirmed for the three glaciers.
Balram Pokhrel, Ping Gong, Xiaoping Wang, Sanjay Nath Khanal, Jiao Ren, Chuanfei Wang, Shaopeng Gao, and Tandong Yao
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 1325–1336, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-1325-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-1325-2018, 2018
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As Nepal is a tropical country close to the Himalayas, it is essential to investigate concentration levels and long-range transport potential of persistent organic pollutants (POPs) in its cities to assess whether these pollutants can contaminate the high Himalaya. We found high concentration and long travel distance (> 1000 km) of dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethane and hexachlorocyclohexane in the atmosphere of Nepalese cities, suggesting Nepal can be an important regional source region for POPs.
Wenbin Liu, Fubao Sun, Yanzhong Li, Guoqing Zhang, Yan-Fang Sang, Wee Ho Lim, Jiahong Liu, Hong Wang, and Peng Bai
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 351–371, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-351-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-351-2018, 2018
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The dynamics of basin-scale water budgets over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) are not well understood nowadays due to the lack of hydro-climatic observations. In this study, we investigate seasonal cycles and trends of water budget components (e.g. precipitation P, evapotranspiration ET and runoff Q) in 18 TP river basins during the period 1982–2011 through the use of multi-source datasets (e.g. in situ observations, satellite retrievals, reanalysis outputs and land surface model simulations).
Tobias Bolch, Tino Pieczonka, Kriti Mukherjee, and Joseph Shea
The Cryosphere, 11, 531–539, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-531-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-531-2017, 2017
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Previous geodetic estimates of glacier mass changes in the Karakoram have revealed balanced budgets or a possible slight mass gain since the year ∼ 2000. We used old US reconnaissance imagery and could show that glaciers in the Hunza River basin (Central Karakoram) experienced on average no significant mass changes also since the 1970s. Likewise the glaciers had heterogeneous behaviour with frequent surge activities during the last 40 years.
Jiao Ren, Xiaoping Wang, Chuanfei Wang, Ping Gong, and Tandong Yao
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 1401–1415, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-1401-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-1401-2017, 2017
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Do the water bodies in the Tibetan Plateau (TP) act as a sink or secondary source of organic pollutants (OPs)? To answer this question, atmospheric processes of OPs over a large lake on the TP were quantified. We found that the lake was a net sink of hexachlorocyclohexanes (HCHs) and most polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs), but it turned into a secondary source of phenanthrene, coinciding with the melting of lake ice.
Wenbin Liu, Fubao Sun, Yanzhong Li, Guoqing Zhang, Yan-Fang Sang, Jiahong Liu, Hong Wang, and Peng Bai
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2016-624, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2016-624, 2016
Revised manuscript not accepted
Xiaoxin Yang, Sunil Acharya, and Tandong Yao
Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2016-876, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2016-876, 2016
Revised manuscript has not been submitted
Hongbo Zhang, Fan Zhang, Guoqing Zhang, Xiaobo He, and Lide Tian
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 13681–13696, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-13681-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-13681-2016, 2016
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Based on MODIS LST, clouds are believed to affect Tair estimation; however, understanding of the cloud effect on the Tair–LST relationship remains limited. Our paper reveals the subtle influence of clouds that affects Tmin and Tmax estimation in clearly different ways. The results contribute to better understanding of cloud effects and more accurate estimation of Tair using satellite LST.
Silvan Ragettli, Tobias Bolch, and Francesca Pellicciotti
The Cryosphere, 10, 2075–2097, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-2075-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-2075-2016, 2016
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This study presents a multi-temporal dataset of geodetically derived elevation changes on debris-free and debris-covered glaciers in the Langtang valley, Nepalese Himalaya. Overall, we observe accelerated glacier wastage, but highly heterogeneous spatial patterns and temporal trends across glaciers. Accelerations in thinning correlate with the presence of supraglacial cliffs and lakes, whereas thinning rates remained constant or declined on stagnating debris-covered glacier areas.
Michel Wortmann, Tobias Bolch, Valentina Krysanova, and Su Buda
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2016-272, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2016-272, 2016
Revised manuscript not accepted
Xiaoping Wang, Jiao Ren, Ping Gong, Chuanfei Wang, Yonggang Xue, Tandong Yao, and Rainer Lohmann
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 6901–6911, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-6901-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-6901-2016, 2016
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Is there any linkage between climate interactions and spatial distribution of persistent organic pollutants (POPs)? To answer this question, we conducted long-term passive air monitoring across the Tibetan Plateau. We found that there are three graphical zones over the Tibetan Plateau that could be classified as a function of POP fingerprints. This study highlights validity of using POP fingerprints as chemical tracers to track the interactions of climate systems.
N. Holzer, S. Vijay, T. Yao, B. Xu, M. Buchroithner, and T. Bolch
The Cryosphere, 9, 2071–2088, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-2071-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-2071-2015, 2015
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Investigations of glacier mass-balance and area changes at Muztagh Ata (eastern Pamir) are based on Hexagon KH-9 (1973), ALOS-PRISM (2009), Pléiades (2013) and Landsat 7 ETM+/SRTM-3 (2000). Surface velocities of Kekesayi Glacier are derived by TerraSAR-X (2011) amplitude tracking. Glacier variations differ spatially and temporally, but on average not significantly for the entire massif. Stagnant Kekesayi and other debris-covered glaciers indicate no visual length changes, but clear down-wasting.
S. Kang, F. Wang, U. Morgenstern, Y. Zhang, B. Grigholm, S. Kaspari, M. Schwikowski, J. Ren, T. Yao, D. Qin, and P. A. Mayewski
The Cryosphere, 9, 1213–1222, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-1213-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-1213-2015, 2015
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D. H. Shangguan, T. Bolch, Y. J. Ding, M. Kröhnert, T. Pieczonka, H. U. Wetzel, and S. Y. Liu
The Cryosphere, 9, 703–717, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-703-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-703-2015, 2015
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Glacier velocity, glacier area, surface elevation and mass changes of the Southern and Northern Inylchek Glacier were investigated by using multi-temporal space-borne data sets. The mass balance of both SIG and NIG was negative(-0.43 ± 0.10 m w.e. a-1 and -0.25 ± 0.10 m w.e. a-1) from ~1975 to 2007. The thinning at the lake dam was higher, likely caused by calving into Lake Merzbacher. Thus, glacier thinning and glacier flow are significantly influenced by the lake.
H. Frey, H. Machguth, M. Huss, C. Huggel, S. Bajracharya, T. Bolch, A. Kulkarni, A. Linsbauer, N. Salzmann, and M. Stoffel
The Cryosphere, 8, 2313–2333, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-2313-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-2313-2014, 2014
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Existing methods (area–volume relations, a slope-dependent volume estimation method, and two ice-thickness distribution models) are used to estimate the ice reserves stored in Himalayan–Karakoram glaciers. Resulting volumes range from 2955–4737km³. Results from the ice-thickness distribution models agree well with local measurements; volume estimates from area-related relations exceed the estimates from the other approaches. Evidence on the effect of the selected method on results is provided.
S. Hasson, V. Lucarini, M. R. Khan, M. Petitta, T. Bolch, and G. Gioli
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 4077–4100, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-4077-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-4077-2014, 2014
S. Thakuri, F. Salerno, C. Smiraglia, T. Bolch, C. D'Agata, G. Viviano, and G. Tartari
The Cryosphere, 8, 1297–1315, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-1297-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-1297-2014, 2014
R. Bhambri, T. Bolch, P. Kawishwar, D. P. Dobhal, D. Srivastava, and B. Pratap
The Cryosphere, 7, 1385–1398, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-1385-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-1385-2013, 2013
P. Rastner, T. Bolch, N. Mölg, H. Machguth, R. Le Bris, and F. Paul
The Cryosphere, 6, 1483–1495, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-6-1483-2012, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-6-1483-2012, 2012
Related subject area
Other Hazards (e.g., Glacial and Snow Hazards, Karst, Wildfires Hazards, and Medical Geo-Hazards)
Glide-snow avalanches: a mechanical, threshold-based release area model
Improving fire severity prediction in south-eastern Australia using vegetation-specific information
Review article: A scoping review of human factors in avalanche decision-making
How hard do avalanche practitioners tap during snow stability tests?
A large-scale validation of snowpack simulations in support of avalanche forecasting focusing on critical layers
A glacial lake outburst flood risk assessment for the Phochhu river basin, Bhutan
Statistical calibration of probabilistic medium-range fire weather index forecasts in Europe
AutoATES v2.0: Automated Avalanche Terrain Exposure Scale mapping
Modelling the vulnerability of urban settings to wildland–urban interface fires in Chile
Modeling of indoor 222Rn in data-scarce regions: an interactive dashboard approach for Bogotá, Colombia
The effect of propagation saw test geometries on critical cut length
A regional early warning for slushflow hazard
A new approach for drought index adjustment to clay-shrinkage-induced subsidence over France: advantages of the interactive leaf area index
Automated Avalanche Terrain Exposure Scale (ATES) mapping – local validation and optimization in western Canada
An Efficient Method to Simulate Wildfire Propagation Using Irregular Grids
Improving the fire weather index system for peatlands using peat-specific hydrological input data
Brief communication: The Lahaina Fire disaster – how models can be used to understand and predict wildfires
Prediction of natural dry-snow avalanche activity using physics-based snowpack simulations
Early warning system for ice collapses and river blockages in the Sedongpu Valley, southeastern Tibetan Plateau
Fire risk modeling: an integrated and data-driven approach applied to Sicily
Avalanche size estimation and avalanche outline determination by experts: reliability and implications for practice
Fluid conduits and shallow-reservoir structure defined by geoelectrical tomography at the Nirano Salse (Italy)
Estimating the effects of meteorology and land cover on fire growth in Peru using a novel difference equation model
Review article: Snow and ice avalanches in high mountain Asia – scientific, local and indigenous knowledge
Reduced-order digital twin and latent data assimilation for global wildfire prediction
A user perspective on the avalanche danger scale – insights from North America
Characterizing the rate of spread of large wildfires in emerging fire environments of northwestern Europe using Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite active fire data
Evaluation of low-cost Raspberry Pi sensors for structure-from-motion reconstructions of glacier calving fronts
Temporal evolution of crack propagation characteristics in a weak snowpack layer: conditions of crack arrest and sustained propagation
A data-driven model for Fennoscandian wildfire danger
Equivalent hazard magnitude scale
Statistical modelling of air quality impacts from individual forest fires in New South Wales, Australia
Drivers of extreme burnt area in Portugal: fire weather and vegetation
Coupling wildfire spread simulations and connectivity analysis for hazard assessment: a case study in Serra da Cabreira, Portugal
What weather variables are important for wet and slab avalanches under a changing climate in a low-altitude mountain range in Czechia?
Modelling ignition probability for human- and lightning-caused wildfires in Victoria, Australia
Automated snow avalanche release area delineation in data-sparse, remote, and forested regions
The 2017 Split wildfire in Croatia: evolution and the role of meteorological conditions
Progress and challenges in glacial lake outburst flood research (2017–2021): a research community perspective
Global assessment and mapping of ecological vulnerability to wildfires
The impact of terrain model source and resolution on snow avalanche modeling
Travel and terrain advice statements in public avalanche bulletins: a quantitative analysis of who uses this information, what makes it useful, and how it can be improved for users
Data-driven automated predictions of the avalanche danger level for dry-snow conditions in Switzerland
On the correlation between a sub-level qualifier refining the danger level with observations and models relating to the contributing factors of avalanche danger
Automated avalanche hazard indication mapping on a statewide scale
Forecasting the regional fire radiative power for regularly ignited vegetation fires
Environmental factors affecting wildfire-burned areas in southeastern France, 1970–2019
Detrainment and braking of snow avalanches interacting with forests
Past and future trends in fire weather for the UK
Methodological and conceptual challenges in rare and severe event forecast verification
Amelie Fees, Alec van Herwijnen, Michael Lombardo, Jürg Schweizer, and Peter Lehmann
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3387–3400, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3387-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3387-2024, 2024
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Glide-snow avalanches release at the ground–snow interface, and their release process is poorly understood. To investigate the influence of spatial variability (snowpack and basal friction) on avalanche release, we developed a 3D, mechanical, threshold-based model that reproduces an observed release area distribution. A sensitivity analysis showed that the distribution was mostly influenced by the basal friction uniformity, while the variations in snowpack properties had little influence.
Kang He, Xinyi Shen, Cory Merow, Efthymios Nikolopoulos, Rachael V. Gallagher, Feifei Yang, and Emmanouil N. Anagnostou
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3337–3355, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3337-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3337-2024, 2024
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A framework combining a fire severity classification with a regression model to predict an indicator of fire severity derived from Landsat imagery (difference normalized burning ratio, dNBR) is proposed. The results show that the proposed predictive technique is capable of providing robust fire severity prediction information, which can be used for forecasting seasonal fire severity and, subsequently, impacts on biodiversity and ecosystems under projected future climate conditions.
Audun Hetland, Rebecca Anne Hetland, Tarjei Tveito Skille, and Andrea Mannberg
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1628, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1628, 2024
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Research on human factor in avalanche decision making has become increasingly popular the past two decades. The studies span across a wide range of disciplines and is published in a variety of journals. To provide an overview of the literature this study provide a systematic scooping review of human factor in avalanche decision making. 70 papers fulfilled the search criteria. We extracted data and sorted the papers according to their main theme.
Håvard B. Toft, Samuel V. Verplanck, and Markus Landrø
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2757–2772, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2757-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2757-2024, 2024
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This study investigates inconsistencies in impact force as part of extended column tests (ECTs). We measured force-time curves from 286 practitioners in Scandinavia, Central Europe, and North America. The results show a large variability in peak forces and loading rates across wrist, elbow, and shoulder taps, challenging the ECT's reliability.
Florian Herla, Pascal Haegeli, Simon Horton, and Patrick Mair
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2727–2756, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2727-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2727-2024, 2024
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Snowpack simulations are increasingly employed by avalanche warning services to inform about critical avalanche layers buried in the snowpack. However, validity concerns limit their operational value. We present methods that enable meaningful comparisons between snowpack simulations and regional assessments of avalanche forecasters to quantify the performance of the Canadian weather and snowpack model chain to represent thin critical avalanche layers on a large scale and in real time.
Tandin Wangchuk and Ryota Tsubaki
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2523–2540, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2523-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2523-2024, 2024
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A glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF) is a natural hazard in which water from a glacier-fed lake is swiftly discharged, causing serious harm to life, infrastructure, and communities. We used numerical models to predict the potential consequences of a GLOF originating from the Thorthomi glacial lake in Bhutan. We found that if a GLOF occurs, the lake could release massive flood water within 4 h, posing a considerable risk. Study findings help to mitigate the impacts of future GLOFs.
Stephanie Bohlmann and Marko Laine
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-57, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-57, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
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Probabilistic ensemble forecasts of the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index (FWI) can be used to estimate the possible risk for wildfires but requires post-processing to provide accurate and reliable predictions. We present a calibration method using non-homogeneous Gaussian regression to statistical post-process FWI forecasts up to 15 days. Calibration improves the forecast especially at short lead times and in regions with elevated FWI values.
Håvard B. Toft, John Sykes, Andrew Schauer, Jordy Hendrikx, and Audun Hetland
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1779–1793, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1779-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1779-2024, 2024
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Manual Avalanche Terrain Exposure Scale (ATES) mapping is time-consuming and inefficient for large-scale applications. The updated algorithm for automated ATES mapping overcomes previous limitations by including forest density data, improving the avalanche runout estimations in low-angle runout zones, accounting for overhead exposure and open-source software. Results show that the latest version has significantly improved its performance.
Paula Aguirre, Jorge León, Constanza González-Mathiesen, Randy Román, Manuela Penas, and Alonso Ogueda
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1521–1537, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1521-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1521-2024, 2024
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Wildfires pose a significant risk to property located in the wildland–urban interface (WUI). To assess and mitigate this risk, we need to understand which characteristics of buildings and building arrangements make them more prone to damage. We used a combination of data collection and analysis methods to study the vulnerability of dwellings in the WUI for case studies in Chile and concluded that the spatial arrangement of houses has a substantial impact on their vulnerability to wildfires.
Martín Domínguez Durán, María Angélica Sandoval Garzón, and Carme Huguet
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1319–1339, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1319-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1319-2024, 2024
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In this study we created a cost-effective alternative to bridge the baseline information gap on indoor radon (a highly carcinogenic gas) in regions where measurements are scarce. We model indoor radon concentrations to understand its spatial distribution and the potential influential factors. We evaluated the performance of this alternative using a small number of measurements taken in Bogotá, Colombia. Our results show that this alternative could help in the making of future studies and policy.
Bastian Bergfeld, Karl W. Birkeland, Valentin Adam, Philipp L. Rosendahl, and Alec van Herwijnen
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-690, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-690, 2024
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To release a slab avalanche, a crack in a weak snow layer beneath a cohesive slab has to propagate. Information on that is essential for assessing avalanche risk. In the field, information can be gathered with the Propagation Saw Test (PST). However, there are different standards on how to cut the PST. In this study, we experimentally investigate the effect of these different column geometries and provide models to correct for imprecise field test geometry effects on the critical cut length.
Monica Sund, Heidi A. Grønsten, and Siv Å. Seljesæter
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1185–1201, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1185-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1185-2024, 2024
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Slushflows are rapid mass movements of water-saturated snow released in gently sloping terrain (< 30°), often unexpectedly. Early warning is crucial to prevent casualties and damage to infrastructure. A regional early warning for slushflow hazard was established in Norway in 2013–2014 and has been operational since. We present a methodology using the ratio between water supply and snow depth by snow type to assess slushflow hazard. This approach is useful for other areas with slushflow hazard.
Sophie Barthelemy, Bertrand Bonan, Jean-Christophe Calvet, Gilles Grandjean, David Moncoulon, Dorothée Kapsambelis, and Séverine Bernardie
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 999–1016, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-999-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-999-2024, 2024
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This work presents a drought index specifically adapted to subsidence, a seasonal phenomenon of soil shrinkage that occurs frequently in France and damages buildings. The index is computed from land surface model simulations and evaluated by a rank correlation test with insurance data. With its optimal configuration, the index is able to identify years of both zero and significant loss.
John Sykes, Håvard Toft, Pascal Haegeli, and Grant Statham
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 947–971, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-947-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-947-2024, 2024
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The research validates and optimizes an automated approach for creating classified snow avalanche terrain maps using open-source geospatial modeling tools. Validation is based on avalanche-expert-based maps for two study areas. Our results show that automated maps have an overall accuracy equivalent to the average accuracy of three human maps. Automated mapping requires a fraction of the time and cost of traditional methods and opens the door for large-scale mapping of mountainous terrain.
Conor Hackett, Rafael de Andrade Moral, Gourav Mishra, Tim McCarthy, and Charles Markham
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-27, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-27, 2024
Revised manuscript under review for NHESS
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This paper reviews existing wildfire propagation models and a comparison of different grid types including random grids to simulate wildfires. This paper finds that irregular grids simulate wildfires more efficiently than continuous models while still retaining a reasonable level of similarity. It also shows that irregular grids tend to retain greater similarity to continuous models than regular grids at the cost of slightly longer computational times.
Jonas Mortelmans, Anne Felsberg, Gabriëlle J. M. De Lannoy, Sander Veraverbeke, Robert D. Field, Niels Andela, and Michel Bechtold
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 445–464, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-445-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-445-2024, 2024
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With global warming increasing the frequency and intensity of wildfires in the boreal region, accurate risk assessments are becoming more crucial than ever before. The Canadian Fire Weather Index (FWI) is a renowned system, yet its effectiveness in peatlands, where hydrology plays a key role, is limited. By incorporating groundwater data from numerical models and satellite observations, our modified FWI improves the accuracy of fire danger predictions, especially over summer.
Timothy W. Juliano, Fernando Szasdi-Bardales, Neil P. Lareau, Kasra Shamsaei, Branko Kosović, Negar Elhami-Khorasani, Eric P. James, and Hamed Ebrahimian
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 47–52, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-47-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-47-2024, 2024
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Following the destructive Lahaina Fire in Hawaii, our team has modeled the wind and fire spread processes to understand the drivers of this devastating event. The simulation results show that extreme winds with high variability, a fire ignition close to the community, and construction characteristics led to continued fire spread in multiple directions. Our results suggest that available modeling capabilities can provide vital information to guide decision-making during wildfire events.
Stephanie Mayer, Frank Techel, Jürg Schweizer, and Alec van Herwijnen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3445–3465, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3445-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3445-2023, 2023
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We present statistical models to estimate the probability for natural dry-snow avalanche release and avalanche size based on the simulated layering of the snowpack. The benefit of these models is demonstrated in comparison with benchmark models based on the amount of new snow. From the validation with data sets of quality-controlled avalanche observations and danger levels, we conclude that these models may be valuable tools to support forecasting natural dry-snow avalanche activity.
Wei Yang, Zhongyan Wang, Baosheng An, Yingying Chen, Chuanxi Zhao, Chenhui Li, Yongjie Wang, Weicai Wang, Jiule Li, Guangjian Wu, Lin Bai, Fan Zhang, and Tandong Yao
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3015–3029, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3015-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3015-2023, 2023
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We present the structure and performance of the early warning system (EWS) for glacier collapse and river blockages in the southeastern Tibetan Plateau. The EWS warned of three collapse–river blockage chain events and seven small-scale events. The volume and location of the collapses and the percentage of ice content influenced the velocities of debris flows. Such a study is helpful for understanding the mechanism of glacier hazards and for establishing similar EWSs in other high-risk regions.
Alba Marquez Torres, Giovanni Signorello, Sudeshna Kumar, Greta Adamo, Ferdinando Villa, and Stefano Balbi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2937–2959, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2937-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2937-2023, 2023
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Only by mapping fire risks can we manage forest and prevent fires under current and future climate conditions. We present a fire risk map based on k.LAB, artificial-intelligence-powered and open-source software integrating multidisciplinary knowledge in near real time. Through an easy-to-use web application, we model the hazard with 84 % accuracy for Sicily, a representative Mediterranean region. Fire risk analysis reveals 45 % of vulnerable areas face a high probability of danger in 2050.
Elisabeth D. Hafner, Frank Techel, Rodrigo Caye Daudt, Jan Dirk Wegner, Konrad Schindler, and Yves Bühler
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2895–2914, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2895-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2895-2023, 2023
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Oftentimes when objective measurements are not possible, human estimates are used instead. In our study, we investigate the reproducibility of human judgement for size estimates, the mappings of avalanches from oblique photographs and remotely sensed imagery. The variability that we found in those estimates is worth considering as it may influence results and should be kept in mind for several applications.
Gerardo Romano, Marco Antonellini, Domenico Patella, Agata Siniscalchi, Andrea Tallarico, Simona Tripaldi, and Antonello Piombo
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2719–2735, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2719-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2719-2023, 2023
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The Nirano Salse (northern Apennines, Italy) is characterized by several active mud vents and hosts thousands of visitors every year. New resistivity models describe the area down to 250 m, improving our geostructural knowledge of the area and giving useful indications for a better understanding of mud volcano dynamics and for the better planning of safer tourist access to the area.
Harry Podschwit, William Jolly, Ernesto Alvarado, Andrea Markos, Satyam Verma, Sebastian Barreto-Rivera, Catherine Tobón-Cruz, and Blanca Ponce-Vigo
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2607–2624, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2607-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2607-2023, 2023
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We developed a model of fire spread that assumes that fire spreads in all directions at a constant speed and is extinguished at a constant rate. The model was fitted to 1003 fires in Peru between 2001 and 2020 using satellite burned area data from the GlobFire project. We fitted statistical models that predicted the spread and extinguish rates based on weather and land cover variables and found that these variables were good predictors of the spread and extinguish rates.
Anushilan Acharya, Jakob F. Steiner, Khwaja Momin Walizada, Salar Ali, Zakir Hussain Zakir, Arnaud Caiserman, and Teiji Watanabe
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2569–2592, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2569-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2569-2023, 2023
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All accessible snow and ice avalanches together with previous scientific research, local knowledge, and existing or previously active adaptation and mitigation solutions were investigated in the high mountain Asia (HMA) region to have a detailed overview of the state of knowledge and identify gaps. A comprehensive avalanche database from 1972–2022 is generated, including 681 individual events. The database provides a basis for the forecasting of avalanche hazards in different parts of HMA.
Caili Zhong, Sibo Cheng, Matthew Kasoar, and Rossella Arcucci
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1755–1768, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1755-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1755-2023, 2023
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This paper introduces a digital twin fire model using machine learning techniques to improve the efficiency of global wildfire predictions. The proposed model also manages to efficiently adjust the prediction results thanks to data assimilation techniques. The proposed digital twin runs 500 times faster than the current state-of-the-art physics-based model.
Abby Morgan, Pascal Haegeli, Henry Finn, and Patrick Mair
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1719–1742, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1719-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1719-2023, 2023
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The avalanche danger scale is a critical component for communicating the severity of avalanche hazard conditions to the public. We examine how backcountry recreationists in North America understand and use the danger scale for planning trips into the backcountry. Our results provide an important user perspective on the strengths and weaknesses of the existing scale and highlight opportunities for future improvements.
Adrián Cardíl, Victor M. Tapia, Santiago Monedero, Tomás Quiñones, Kerryn Little, Cathelijne R. Stoof, Joaquín Ramirez, and Sergio de-Miguel
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 361–373, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-361-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-361-2023, 2023
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This study aims to unravel large-fire behavior in northwest Europe, a temperate region with a projected increase in wildfire risk. We propose a new method to identify wildfire rate of spread from satellites because it is important to know periods of elevated fire risk for suppression methods and land management. Results indicate that there is a peak in the area burned and rate of spread in the months of March and April, and there are significant differences for forest-type land covers.
Liam S. Taylor, Duncan J. Quincey, and Mark W. Smith
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 329–341, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-329-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-329-2023, 2023
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Hazards from glaciers are becoming more likely as the climate warms, which poses a threat to communities living beneath them. We have developed a new camera system which can capture regular, high-quality 3D models to monitor small changes in glaciers which could be indicative of a future hazard. This system is far cheaper than more typical camera sensors yet produces very similar quality data. We suggest that deploying these cameras near glaciers could assist in warning communities of hazards.
Bastian Bergfeld, Alec van Herwijnen, Grégoire Bobillier, Philipp L. Rosendahl, Philipp Weißgraeber, Valentin Adam, Jürg Dual, and Jürg Schweizer
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 293–315, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-293-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-293-2023, 2023
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For a slab avalanche to release, the snowpack must facilitate crack propagation over large distances. Field measurements on crack propagation at this scale are very scarce. We performed a series of experiments, up to 10 m long, over a period of 10 weeks. Beside the temporal evolution of the mechanical properties of the snowpack, we found that crack speeds were highest for tests resulting in full propagation. Based on these findings, an index for self-sustained crack propagation is proposed.
Sigrid Jørgensen Bakke, Niko Wanders, Karin van der Wiel, and Lena Merete Tallaksen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 65–89, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-65-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-65-2023, 2023
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In this study, we developed a machine learning model to identify dominant controls of wildfire in Fennoscandia and produce monthly fire danger probability maps. The dominant control was shallow-soil water anomaly, followed by air temperature and deep soil water. The model proved skilful with a similar performance as the existing Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index (FWI). We highlight the benefit of using data-driven models jointly with other fire models to improve fire monitoring and prediction.
Yi Victor Wang and Antonia Sebastian
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 4103–4118, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-4103-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-4103-2022, 2022
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In this article, we propose an equivalent hazard magnitude scale and a method to evaluate and compare the strengths of natural hazard events across different hazard types, including earthquakes, tsunamis, floods, droughts, forest fires, tornadoes, cold waves, heat waves, and tropical cyclones. With our method, we determine that both the February 2021 North American cold wave event and Hurricane Harvey in 2017 were equivalent to a magnitude 7.5 earthquake in hazard strength.
Michael A. Storey and Owen F. Price
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 4039–4062, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-4039-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-4039-2022, 2022
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Models are needed to understand and predict pollutant output from forest fires so fire agencies can reduce smoke-related risks to human health. We modelled air quality (PM2.5) based on fire area and weather variables. We found fire area and boundary layer height were influential on predictions, with distance, temperature, wind speed and relative humidity also important. The models predicted reasonably accurately in comparison to other existing methods but would benefit from further development.
Tomás Calheiros, Akli Benali, Mário Pereira, João Silva, and João Nunes
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 4019–4037, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-4019-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-4019-2022, 2022
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Fire weather indices are used to assess the effect of weather on wildfires. Fire weather risk was computed and combined with large wildfires in Portugal. Results revealed the influence of vegetation cover: municipalities with a prevalence of shrublands, located in eastern parts, burnt under less extreme conditions than those with higher forested areas, situated in coastal regions. These findings are a novelty for fire science in Portugal and should be considered for fire management.
Ana C. L. Sá, Bruno Aparicio, Akli Benali, Chiara Bruni, Michele Salis, Fábio Silva, Martinho Marta-Almeida, Susana Pereira, Alfredo Rocha, and José Pereira
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3917–3938, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3917-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3917-2022, 2022
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Assessing landscape wildfire connectivity supported by wildfire spread simulations can improve fire hazard assessment and fuel management plans. Weather severity determines the degree of fuel patch connectivity and thus the potential to spread large and intense wildfires. Mapping highly connected patches in the landscape highlights patch candidates for prior fuel treatments, which ultimately will contribute to creating fire-resilient Mediterranean landscapes.
Markéta Součková, Roman Juras, Kryštof Dytrt, Vojtěch Moravec, Johanna Ruth Blöcher, and Martin Hanel
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3501–3525, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3501-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3501-2022, 2022
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Avalanches are natural hazards that threaten people and infrastructure. With climate change, avalanche activity is changing. We analysed the change in frequency and size of avalanches in the Krkonoše Mountains, Czechia, and detected important variables with machine learning tools from 1979–2020. Wet avalanches in February and March have increased, and slab avalanches have decreased and become smaller. The identified variables and their threshold levels may help in avalanche decision-making.
Annalie Dorph, Erica Marshall, Kate A. Parkins, and Trent D. Penman
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3487–3499, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3487-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3487-2022, 2022
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Wildfire spatial patterns are determined by fire ignition sources and vegetation fuel moisture. Fire ignitions can be mediated by humans (owing to proximity to human infrastructure) or caused by lightning (owing to fuel moisture, average annual rainfall and local weather). When moisture in dead vegetation is below 20 % the probability of a wildfire increases. The results of this research enable accurate spatial mapping of ignition probability to aid fire suppression efforts and future research.
John Sykes, Pascal Haegeli, and Yves Bühler
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3247–3270, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3247-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3247-2022, 2022
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Automated snow avalanche terrain mapping provides an efficient method for large-scale assessment of avalanche hazards, which informs risk management decisions for transportation and recreation. This research reduces the cost of developing avalanche terrain maps by using satellite imagery and open-source software as well as improving performance in forested terrain. The research relies on local expertise to evaluate accuracy, so the methods are broadly applicable in mountainous regions worldwide.
Ivana Čavlina Tomašević, Kevin K. W. Cheung, Višnjica Vučetić, Paul Fox-Hughes, Kristian Horvath, Maja Telišman Prtenjak, Paul J. Beggs, Barbara Malečić, and Velimir Milić
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3143–3165, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3143-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3143-2022, 2022
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One of the most severe and impactful urban wildfire events in Croatian history has been reconstructed and analyzed. The study identified some important meteorological influences related to the event: the synoptic conditions of the Azores anticyclone, cold front, and upper-level shortwave trough all led to the highest fire weather index in 2017. A low-level jet, locally known as bura wind that can be explained by hydraulic jump theory, was the dynamic trigger of the event.
Adam Emmer, Simon K. Allen, Mark Carey, Holger Frey, Christian Huggel, Oliver Korup, Martin Mergili, Ashim Sattar, Georg Veh, Thomas Y. Chen, Simon J. Cook, Mariana Correas-Gonzalez, Soumik Das, Alejandro Diaz Moreno, Fabian Drenkhan, Melanie Fischer, Walter W. Immerzeel, Eñaut Izagirre, Ramesh Chandra Joshi, Ioannis Kougkoulos, Riamsara Kuyakanon Knapp, Dongfeng Li, Ulfat Majeed, Stephanie Matti, Holly Moulton, Faezeh Nick, Valentine Piroton, Irfan Rashid, Masoom Reza, Anderson Ribeiro de Figueiredo, Christian Riveros, Finu Shrestha, Milan Shrestha, Jakob Steiner, Noah Walker-Crawford, Joanne L. Wood, and Jacob C. Yde
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3041–3061, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3041-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3041-2022, 2022
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Glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) have attracted increased research attention recently. In this work, we review GLOF research papers published between 2017 and 2021 and complement the analysis with research community insights gained from the 2021 GLOF conference we organized. The transdisciplinary character of the conference together with broad geographical coverage allowed us to identify progress, trends and challenges in GLOF research and outline future research needs and directions.
Fátima Arrogante-Funes, Inmaculada Aguado, and Emilio Chuvieco
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2981–3003, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2981-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2981-2022, 2022
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We show that ecological value might be reduced by 50 % due to fire perturbation in ecosystems that have not developed in the presence of fire and/or that present changes in the fire regime. The biomes most affected are tropical and subtropical forests, tundra, and mangroves. Integration of biotic and abiotic fire regime and regeneration factors resulted in a powerful way to map ecological vulnerability to fire and develop assessments to generate adaptation plans of management in forest masses.
Aubrey Miller, Pascal Sirguey, Simon Morris, Perry Bartelt, Nicolas Cullen, Todd Redpath, Kevin Thompson, and Yves Bühler
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2673–2701, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2673-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2673-2022, 2022
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Natural hazard modelers simulate mass movements to better anticipate the risk to people and infrastructure. These simulations require accurate digital elevation models. We test the sensitivity of a well-established snow avalanche model (RAMMS) to the source and spatial resolution of the elevation model. We find key differences in the digital representation of terrain greatly affect the simulated avalanche results, with implications for hazard planning.
Kathryn C. Fisher, Pascal Haegeli, and Patrick Mair
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1973–2000, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1973-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1973-2022, 2022
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Avalanche bulletins include travel and terrain statements to provide recreationists with tangible guidance about how to apply the hazard information. We examined which bulletin users pay attention to these statements, what determines their usefulness, and how they could be improved. Our study shows that reducing jargon and adding simple explanations can significantly improve the usefulness of the statements for users with lower levels of avalanche awareness education who depend on this advice.
Cristina Pérez-Guillén, Frank Techel, Martin Hendrick, Michele Volpi, Alec van Herwijnen, Tasko Olevski, Guillaume Obozinski, Fernando Pérez-Cruz, and Jürg Schweizer
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2031–2056, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2031-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2031-2022, 2022
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A fully data-driven approach to predicting the danger level for dry-snow avalanche conditions in Switzerland was developed. Two classifiers were trained using a large database of meteorological data, snow cover simulations, and danger levels. The models performed well throughout the Swiss Alps, reaching a performance similar to the current experience-based avalanche forecasts. This approach shows the potential to be a valuable supplementary decision support tool for assessing avalanche hazard.
Frank Techel, Stephanie Mayer, Cristina Pérez-Guillén, Günter Schmudlach, and Kurt Winkler
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1911–1930, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1911-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1911-2022, 2022
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Can the resolution of forecasts of avalanche danger be increased by using a combination of absolute and comparative judgments? Using 5 years of Swiss avalanche forecasts, we show that, on average, sub-levels assigned to a danger level reflect the expected increase in the number of locations with poor snow stability and in the number and size of avalanches with increasing forecast sub-level.
Yves Bühler, Peter Bebi, Marc Christen, Stefan Margreth, Lukas Stoffel, Andreas Stoffel, Christoph Marty, Gregor Schmucki, Andrin Caviezel, Roderick Kühne, Stephan Wohlwend, and Perry Bartelt
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1825–1843, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1825-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1825-2022, 2022
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To calculate and visualize the potential avalanche hazard, we develop a method that automatically and efficiently pinpoints avalanche starting zones and simulate their runout for the entire canton of Grisons. The maps produced in this way highlight areas that could be endangered by avalanches and are extremely useful in multiple applications for the cantonal authorities, including the planning of new infrastructure, making alpine regions more safe.
Tero M. Partanen and Mikhail Sofiev
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1335–1346, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1335-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1335-2022, 2022
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The presented method aims to forecast regional wildfire-emitted radiative power in a time-dependent manner several days in advance. The temporal fire radiative power can be converted to an emission production rate, which can be implemented in air quality forecasting simulations. It is shown that in areas with a high incidence of wildfires, the fire radiative power is quite predictable, but otherwise it is not.
Christos Bountzouklis, Dennis M. Fox, and Elena Di Bernardino
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1181–1200, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1181-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1181-2022, 2022
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The study addresses the evolution of burned areas in southeastern France from 1970 to 2019 through the scope of a firefighting policy shift in 1994 that resulted in a significant decrease in the burned area. Regions with large fires were particularly impacted, whereas, in other areas, the fires remained frequent and occurred closer to built-up zones. Environmental characteristics such as south-facing slopes and low vegetation (bushes) are increasingly associated with burned areas.
Louis Védrine, Xingyue Li, and Johan Gaume
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1015–1028, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1015-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1015-2022, 2022
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This study investigates how forests affect the behaviour of snow avalanches through the evaluation of the amount of snow stopped by the trees and the analysis of energy dissipation mechanisms. Different avalanche features and tree configurations have been examined, leading to the proposal of a unified law for the detrained snow mass. Outcomes from this study can be directly implemented in operational models for avalanche risk assessment and contribute to improved forest management strategy.
Matthew C. Perry, Emilie Vanvyve, Richard A. Betts, and Erika J. Palin
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 559–575, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-559-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-559-2022, 2022
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In the past, wildfires in the UK have occurred mainly in spring, with occasional events during hot, dry summers. Climate models predict a large future increase in hazardous fire weather conditions in summer. Wildfire can be considered an
emergent riskfor the UK, as past events have not had widespread major impacts, but this could change. The large increase in risk between the 2 °C and 4 °C levels of global warming highlights the importance of global efforts to keep warming below 2 °C.
Philip A. Ebert and Peter Milne
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 539–557, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-539-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-539-2022, 2022
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There is no consensus about how to assess the quality of binary (yes or no) rare and severe event forecasts, i.e. forecasts involving natural hazards like tornadoes or avalanches. We offer a comprehensive overview of the challenges we face when making such an assessment and provide a critical review of existing solutions. We argue against all but one existing solution to assess the quality of such forecasts and present practical consequences to improve forecasting services.
Cited articles
Allen, S. K., Linsbauer, A., Randhawa, S. S., Huggel, C., Rana, P., and Kumari, A.: Glacial lake outburst flood risk in Himachal Pradesh, India: an integrative and anticipatory approach considering current and future threats, Natural Hazards, 84, 1741–1763, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-016-2511-x, 2016.
Allen, S. K., Zhang, G., Wang, W., Yao, T., and Bolch, T.:
Potentially dangerous glacial lakes across the Tibetan Plateau revealed using a large-scale automated assessment approach, Sci. Bull., 64, 435–445, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scib.2019.03.011, 2019.
Allen, S. K., Frey, H., Haeberli, W., Huggel, C., Chiarle, M., and Geertsema, M.: Assessment Principles for Glacier and Permafrost Hazards in Mountain Regions, Oxford Research Encyclopedias: Natural Hazard Science, Oxford University Press, Oxford, UK, https://doi.org/10.1093/acrefore/9780199389407.013.356, 2022.
Benn, D. I., Bolch, T., Hands, K., Gulley, J., Luckman, A., Nicholson, L. I., Quincey, D., Thompson, S., Toumi, R., and Wiseman, S.:
Response of debris-covered glaciers in the Mount Everest region to recent warming, and implications for outburst flood hazards, Earth Sci. Rev., 114, 156–174, 2012.
Bhardwaj, A. and Sam, L.: Reconstruction and Characterisation of Past and the Most Recent Slope Failure Events at the 2021 Rock-Ice Avalanche Site in Chamoli, Indian Himalaya, Remote Sens.-Basel, 14, 949, https://doi.org/10.3390/rs14040949, 2022.
Bhattacharya A., Bolch T., Mukherjee K., King O., Menounos B., Kapitsa V., Neckel N., Yang W., and Yao T.: High Mountain Asian glacier response to climate revealed by multi-temporal satellite observations since the 1960s, Nat. Commun., 12, 4133, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-24180-y, 2021.
Bolch, T., Shea, J. M., Liu, S., Azam, F. M., Gao, Y., Gruber, S., Immerzeel, W. W., Kulkarni, A., Li, H., Tahir, A. A., Zhang, G., and Zhang, Y.:
Status and Change of the Cryosphere in the Extended Hindu Kush Himalaya Region, in: The Hindu Kush Himalaya Assessment, edited by: Wester, P., Mishra, A., Mukherji, A., and Shrestha, A Springer International Publishing, Cham, 209–255, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-92288-1_7, 2019.
Bolch T., Yao T., Bhattacharya A., Hu Y., King O., Liu L., Pronk J. B., Rastner P., and Zhang G.:
Earth Observation to Investigate Occurrence, Characteristics and Changes of Glaciers, Glacial Lakes and Rock Glaciers in the Poiqu River Basin (Central Himalaya). Remote Sensing, 14(8):1927, https://doi.org/10.3390/rs14081927, 2022.
Carlà, T., Intrieri, E., Raspini, F., Bardi, F., Farina, P., Ferretti, A., Colombo, D., Novali, F., and Casagli, N.:Perspectives on the prediction of catastrophic slope failures from satellite InSAR, Sci. Rep.-UK, 9, 14137, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-019-50792-y, 2019.
Carrivick, J. L. and Tweed, F. S.:
A global assessment of the societal impacts of glacier outburst floods, Global Planet. Change, 144, 1–16, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2016.07.001, 2016.
Chen, F., Zhang, M., Guo, H., Allen, S., Kargel, J. S., Haritashya, U. K., and Watson, C. S.: Annual 30 m dataset for glacial lakes in High Mountain Asia from 2008 to 2017, Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 13, 741–766, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-741-2021, 2021.
Chen, N. S., Hu, G. Sh., Deng, W., Khanal, N., Zhu, Y. H., and Han, D.:
On the water hazards in the trans-boundary Kosi River basin, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 13, 795–808, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-795-2013, 2013.
Clague, J. J. and Evans, S. G.:
A review of catastrophic drainage of moraine-dammed lakes in British Columbia, Quaternary Sci. Rev., 19, 1763–1783, 2000.
Cook, K. L., Andermann, C., Gimbert, F., Adhikari, B. R., and Hovius, N.:
Glacial lake outburst floods as drivers of fluvial erosion in the Himalaya, Science, 362, 53–57, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aat4981, 2018.
Cook, S. J. and Quincey, D. J.:
Estimating the volume of Alpine glacial lakes, Earth Surf. Dynam., 3, 559–575, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-3-559-2015, 2015.
Emmer, A. and Cochachin, A.:
The causes and mechanisms of moraine-dammed lake failures in the Cordillera Blanca, North American Cordillera, and Himalayas, AUC Geographica, 48, 5–15, 2013.
Emmer, A., Harrison, S., Mergili, M., Allen, S., Frey, H., and Huggel, C.:
70 years of lake evolution and glacial lake outburst floods in the Cordillera Blanca (Peru) and implications for the future, Geomorphology, 365, 107178, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geomorph.2020.107178, 2020.
Farinotti, D., Huss, M., Fürst, J. J., Landmann, J., Machguth, H., Maussion, F., and Pandit, A.:
A consensus estimate for the ice thickness distribution of all glaciers on Earth, Nat. Geosci., 12, 168–173, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-019-0300-3, 2019a.
Farinotti, D., Round, V., Huss, M., Compagno, L., and Zekollari, H.:
Large hydropower and water-storage potential in future glacier-free basins, Nature, 575, 341–344, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-019-1740-z, 2019b.
Frey, H., Haeberli, W., Linsbauer, A., Huggel, C., and Paul, F.:
A multi-level strategy for anticipating future glacier lake formation and associated hazard potentials, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 10, 339–352, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-10-339-2010, 2010.
Frey, H., Huggel, C., Chisolm, R. E., Baer, P., McArdell, B. W., Cochachin, A., and Portocarrero, C.: Multi-source glacial lake outburst flood hazard assessment and mapping for Huaraz, Cordillera Blanca, Peru, Front. Earth Sci., 6, 210, https://doi.org/10.3389/feart.2018.00210, 2018.
Fujita, K., Sakai, A., Takenaka, S., Nuimura, T., Surazakov, A. B., Sawagaki, T., and Yamanokuchi, T.:
Potential flood volume of Himalayan glacial lakes, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 13, 1827–1839, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-1827-2013, 2013.
Furian, W., Loibl, D., and Schneider, C.:
Future glacial lakes in High Mountain Asia: an inventory and assessment of hazard potential from surrounding slopes, J. Glaciol., 67 (264), 653–670, https://doi.org/10.1017/jog.2021.18, 2021.
GAPHAZ: Assessment of Glacier and Permafrost Hazards in Mountain Regions: Technical Guidance Document, prepared by: Allen, S., Frey, H., and Huggel, C., Standing Group on Glacier and Permafrost Hazards in Mountains (GAPHAZ) of the International Association of Cryospheric Sciences (IACS) and the International Permafrost Association (IPA), Zurich, Switzerland/Lima, Peru, 72 pp., 2017.
Gardelle, J., Arnaud, Y., and Berthier, E.:
Contrasted evolution of glacial lakes along the Hindu Kush Himalaya mountain range between 1990 and 2009, Global Planet. Change, 75, 47–55, 2011.
Haeberli, W., Buetler, M., Huggel, C., Lehmann Friedli, T., Schaub, Y., and Schleiss, A. J.:
New lakes in deglaciating high-mountain regions – opportunities and risks, Climatic Change, 139, 201–214, 2016.
Haeberli, W., Schaub, Y., and Huggel, C.:
Increasing risks related to landslides from degrading permafrost into new lakes in de-glaciating mountain ranges, Geomorphology, 293, 405–417, 2017.
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Short summary
This study demonstrates how the threat of a very large outburst from a future lake can be feasibly assessed alongside that from current lakes to inform disaster risk management within a transboundary basin between Tibet and Nepal. Results show that engineering measures and early warning systems would need to be coupled with effective land use zoning and programmes to strengthen local response capacities in order to effectively reduce the risk associated with current and future outburst events.
This study demonstrates how the threat of a very large outburst from a future lake can be...
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