Articles | Volume 22, issue 11
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3765-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3765-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
23 Nov 2022
Research article |
| 23 Nov 2022
| 23 Nov 2022
Glacial lake outburst flood hazard under current and future conditions: worst-case scenarios in a transboundary Himalayan basin
Simon K. Allen
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Department of Geography, University of Zurich, 8057, Zurich, Switzerland
Institute for Environmental Science, University of Geneva, 1205, Geneva, Switzerland
Ashim Sattar
Department of Geography, University of Zurich, 8057, Zurich, Switzerland
Owen King
School of Geography and Sustainable Development, University of St Andrews, KY16 9AL, St Andrews, UK
Guoqing Zhang
State Key Laboratory of Tibetan Plateau Earth System, Environment and Resources (TPESER), Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China
Atanu Bhattacharya
School of Geography and Sustainable Development, University of St Andrews, KY16 9AL, St Andrews, UK
Department of Earth Sciences and Remote Sensing, JIS University, Kolkata, 700109, India
Tandong Yao
State Key Laboratory of Tibetan Plateau Earth System, Environment and Resources (TPESER), Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China
Tobias Bolch
School of Geography and Sustainable Development, University of St Andrews, KY16 9AL, St Andrews, UK
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Cited
33 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Physical information-fused deep learning model ensembled with a subregion-specific sampling method for predicting flood dynamics C. Li et al. 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2023.129465
- Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs) Susceptibility in the Northwest Himalayas using AHP-TOPSIS and AHP-COPRAS A. Upadhyaya & A. Rai 10.1007/s11356-025-36346-y
- The breaching mechanism of moraine dams with buried ice: A Review Y. Mou et al. 10.1016/j.coldregions.2024.104315
- Enhanced glacial lake activity threatens numerous communities and infrastructure in the Third Pole T. Zhang et al. 10.1038/s41467-023-44123-z
- Automatic extraction of glacial lakes from Landsat imagery using deep learning across the Third Pole region Q. Tang et al. 10.1016/j.rse.2024.114413
- Growing Glacial Lake Outburst Flood Risks in Ghizer District: A Karakoram Anomaly Region Y. Mazhar et al. 10.1109/JSTARS.2024.3522950
- Quantitative assessment of the GLOF risk along China-Nepal transboundary basins by integrating remote sensing, machine learning, and hydrodynamic model M. Gouli et al. 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105231
- Surges of the Black Rapids Glacier tracked climate over the last 600 years D. Mann et al. 10.1016/j.quascirev.2024.108969
- Multidisciplinary perspectives in understanding Himalayan glacial lakes in a climate challenged world N. Khadka et al. 10.1016/j.infgeo.2025.100002
- Evolution of a Potentially Dangerous Glacial Lake on the Kanchenjunga Glacier, Nepal, Predictive Flood Models, and Prospective Community Response A. Byers et al. 10.3390/w17101457
- Revisión de literatura para la estimación del volumen de lagunas glaciales en base a modelos empíricos F. Aparicio Roque & M. Alvarez Benaute 10.32911/as.2024.v17.n1.1153
- A massive lateral moraine collapse triggered the 2023 South Lhonak Lake outburst flood, Sikkim Himalayas T. Zhang et al. 10.1007/s10346-024-02358-x
- It is time to build GLOF-resilient communities globally before another GLOF disaster strikes R. Ahmed et al. 10.1038/s44304-025-00097-0
- Climate Warming Triggered a Glacial Lake Outburst Flood and Debris Flow Events in an Alpine Watershed, Western Himalayas, Tibet Plateau C. Ma et al. 10.1007/s10064-024-03706-w
- Characteristics and changes of glacial lakes and outburst floods G. Zhang et al. 10.1038/s43017-024-00554-w
- Exploring Contrastive Representation for Weakly-Supervised Glacial Lake Extraction H. Zhao et al. 10.3390/rs15051456
- Glacial Lake Outburst Flood Monitoring and Modeling through Integrating Multiple Remote Sensing Methods and HEC-RAS L. Yang et al. 10.3390/rs15225327
- Glacial lake outburst floods threaten China-Nepal connectivity: Synergistic study of remote sensing, GIS and hydrodynamic modeling with regional implications N. Khadka et al. 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.174701
- Progressively smaller glacier lake outburst floods despite worldwide growth in lake area G. Veh et al. 10.1038/s44221-025-00388-w
- Early warning system for ice collapses and river blockages in the Sedongpu Valley, southeastern Tibetan Plateau W. Yang et al. 10.5194/nhess-23-3015-2023
- GLOF hazard, exposure, vulnerability, and risk assessment of potentially dangerous glacial lakes in the Bhutan Himalaya S. Rinzin et al. 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2023.129311
- Three decades of glacial lake research: a bibliometric and visual analysis of glacial lake identification Z. Liu et al. 10.3389/fevo.2023.1296111
- Modeling Potential Glacial Lake Outburst Flood Process Chains and Effects From Artificial Lake‐Level Lowering at Gepang Gath Lake, Indian Himalaya A. Sattar et al. 10.1029/2022JF006826
- Glacial Lake Changes and Risk Assessment in Rongxer Watershed of China–Nepal Economic Corridor S. Zhang et al. 10.3390/rs16040725
- Risk perception and vulnerability of communities in Nepal to transboundary glacial lake outburst floods from Tibet, China N. Khadka et al. 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104476
- Thematic and Bibliometric Review of Remote Sensing and Geographic Information System-Based Flood Disaster Studies in South Asia During 2004–2024 J. Madushani et al. 10.3390/su17010217
- Reconstructing glacial lake outburst floods in the Poiqu River basin, central Himalaya X. Wang et al. 10.1016/j.geomorph.2024.109063
- Multi Breach GLOF Hazard and Exposure Analysis of Birendra Lake in the Manaslu Region of Nepal U. Poudel et al. 10.1016/j.nhres.2025.03.007
- Climate change-induced high-altitude lake: Hydrochemistry and area changes of a moraine-dammed lake in Leh-Ladakh H. Kaushik et al. 10.1007/s11600-021-00670-x
- Inventory and GLOF susceptibility of glacial lakes in Chenab basin, Western Himalaya S. Das et al. 10.1080/19475705.2024.2356216
- Improving the accuracy of glacial lake volume estimation: A case study in the Poiqu basin, central Himalayas M. Qi et al. 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2022.127973
- Electric vehicles—a win-win in underdeveloped countries H. Chen & G. Maharjan 10.1177/29768632241286331
- Glacier–glacial lake changes and modeling glacial lake outburst flood in Upper Ganga Basin, India M. Rawat et al. 10.1007/s40808-022-01512-5
28 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Physical information-fused deep learning model ensembled with a subregion-specific sampling method for predicting flood dynamics C. Li et al. 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2023.129465
- Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs) Susceptibility in the Northwest Himalayas using AHP-TOPSIS and AHP-COPRAS A. Upadhyaya & A. Rai 10.1007/s11356-025-36346-y
- The breaching mechanism of moraine dams with buried ice: A Review Y. Mou et al. 10.1016/j.coldregions.2024.104315
- Enhanced glacial lake activity threatens numerous communities and infrastructure in the Third Pole T. Zhang et al. 10.1038/s41467-023-44123-z
- Automatic extraction of glacial lakes from Landsat imagery using deep learning across the Third Pole region Q. Tang et al. 10.1016/j.rse.2024.114413
- Growing Glacial Lake Outburst Flood Risks in Ghizer District: A Karakoram Anomaly Region Y. Mazhar et al. 10.1109/JSTARS.2024.3522950
- Quantitative assessment of the GLOF risk along China-Nepal transboundary basins by integrating remote sensing, machine learning, and hydrodynamic model M. Gouli et al. 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105231
- Surges of the Black Rapids Glacier tracked climate over the last 600 years D. Mann et al. 10.1016/j.quascirev.2024.108969
- Multidisciplinary perspectives in understanding Himalayan glacial lakes in a climate challenged world N. Khadka et al. 10.1016/j.infgeo.2025.100002
- Evolution of a Potentially Dangerous Glacial Lake on the Kanchenjunga Glacier, Nepal, Predictive Flood Models, and Prospective Community Response A. Byers et al. 10.3390/w17101457
- Revisión de literatura para la estimación del volumen de lagunas glaciales en base a modelos empíricos F. Aparicio Roque & M. Alvarez Benaute 10.32911/as.2024.v17.n1.1153
- A massive lateral moraine collapse triggered the 2023 South Lhonak Lake outburst flood, Sikkim Himalayas T. Zhang et al. 10.1007/s10346-024-02358-x
- It is time to build GLOF-resilient communities globally before another GLOF disaster strikes R. Ahmed et al. 10.1038/s44304-025-00097-0
- Climate Warming Triggered a Glacial Lake Outburst Flood and Debris Flow Events in an Alpine Watershed, Western Himalayas, Tibet Plateau C. Ma et al. 10.1007/s10064-024-03706-w
- Characteristics and changes of glacial lakes and outburst floods G. Zhang et al. 10.1038/s43017-024-00554-w
- Exploring Contrastive Representation for Weakly-Supervised Glacial Lake Extraction H. Zhao et al. 10.3390/rs15051456
- Glacial Lake Outburst Flood Monitoring and Modeling through Integrating Multiple Remote Sensing Methods and HEC-RAS L. Yang et al. 10.3390/rs15225327
- Glacial lake outburst floods threaten China-Nepal connectivity: Synergistic study of remote sensing, GIS and hydrodynamic modeling with regional implications N. Khadka et al. 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.174701
- Progressively smaller glacier lake outburst floods despite worldwide growth in lake area G. Veh et al. 10.1038/s44221-025-00388-w
- Early warning system for ice collapses and river blockages in the Sedongpu Valley, southeastern Tibetan Plateau W. Yang et al. 10.5194/nhess-23-3015-2023
- GLOF hazard, exposure, vulnerability, and risk assessment of potentially dangerous glacial lakes in the Bhutan Himalaya S. Rinzin et al. 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2023.129311
- Three decades of glacial lake research: a bibliometric and visual analysis of glacial lake identification Z. Liu et al. 10.3389/fevo.2023.1296111
- Modeling Potential Glacial Lake Outburst Flood Process Chains and Effects From Artificial Lake‐Level Lowering at Gepang Gath Lake, Indian Himalaya A. Sattar et al. 10.1029/2022JF006826
- Glacial Lake Changes and Risk Assessment in Rongxer Watershed of China–Nepal Economic Corridor S. Zhang et al. 10.3390/rs16040725
- Risk perception and vulnerability of communities in Nepal to transboundary glacial lake outburst floods from Tibet, China N. Khadka et al. 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104476
- Thematic and Bibliometric Review of Remote Sensing and Geographic Information System-Based Flood Disaster Studies in South Asia During 2004–2024 J. Madushani et al. 10.3390/su17010217
- Reconstructing glacial lake outburst floods in the Poiqu River basin, central Himalaya X. Wang et al. 10.1016/j.geomorph.2024.109063
- Multi Breach GLOF Hazard and Exposure Analysis of Birendra Lake in the Manaslu Region of Nepal U. Poudel et al. 10.1016/j.nhres.2025.03.007
5 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Climate change-induced high-altitude lake: Hydrochemistry and area changes of a moraine-dammed lake in Leh-Ladakh H. Kaushik et al. 10.1007/s11600-021-00670-x
- Inventory and GLOF susceptibility of glacial lakes in Chenab basin, Western Himalaya S. Das et al. 10.1080/19475705.2024.2356216
- Improving the accuracy of glacial lake volume estimation: A case study in the Poiqu basin, central Himalayas M. Qi et al. 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2022.127973
- Electric vehicles—a win-win in underdeveloped countries H. Chen & G. Maharjan 10.1177/29768632241286331
- Glacier–glacial lake changes and modeling glacial lake outburst flood in Upper Ganga Basin, India M. Rawat et al. 10.1007/s40808-022-01512-5
Latest update: 30 May 2025
Short summary
This study demonstrates how the threat of a very large outburst from a future lake can be feasibly assessed alongside that from current lakes to inform disaster risk management within a transboundary basin between Tibet and Nepal. Results show that engineering measures and early warning systems would need to be coupled with effective land use zoning and programmes to strengthen local response capacities in order to effectively reduce the risk associated with current and future outburst events.
This study demonstrates how the threat of a very large outburst from a future lake can be...
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